Y

Jul 2013 10,964

Aug 2013 11,237
Sep 2013 9,299 240505651
Oct 2013 8,767 10,500 3003289
Nov 2013 7,507 9,768 5110614
Dec 2013 8,024 8,524 250333.4
Jan 2014 6,682 8,099 2008834
Feb 2014 5,273 7,404 4542582
Mar 2014 6,275 6,660 147968.4
Apr 2014 6,048 6,077 821.7778
May 2014 16,436 5,865 1.12E+08
Jun 2014 11,592 9,586 4022699
Jul 2014 13,721 11,359 5580619
Aug 2014 11,076 13,916 8067493
Sep 2014 12,660 12,130 281253.4
Oct 2014 13,160 12,486 454725.4
Nov 2014 13,877 12,299 2491136
Dec 2014 16,629 13,232 11537344
Jan 2015 14,091 14,555 215605.4
Feb 2015 16,003 14,866 1293527
Mar 2015 13,083 15,574 6206742
Apr 2015 20,634 14,392 38958403
May 2015 19,658 16,573 9515168
Jun 2015 18,794 17,792 1004672
Jul 2015 21,455 19,695 3096427
Aug 2015 24,549 19,969 20976400

Y 1_lag 2_lag 3_lag

Nov 2013 7,507 9,299 11,237 10,964
Dec 2013 8,024 8,767 9,299 11,237
Jan 2014 6,682 7,507 8,767 9,299
Feb 2014 5,273 8,024 7,507 8,767
Mar 2014 6,275 6,682 8,024 7,507
Apr 2014 6,048 5,273 6,682 8,024
May 2014 16,436 6,275 5,273 6,682
Jun 2014 11,592 6,048 6,275 5,273
Jul 2014 13,721 16,436 6,048 6,275
Aug 2014 11,076 11,592 16,436 6,048
Sep 2014 12,660 13,721 11,592 16,436
Oct 2014 13,160 11,076 13,721 11,592
Nov 2014 13,877 12,660 11,076 13,721
Dec 2014 16,629 13,160 12,660 11,076
Jan 2015 14,091 13,877 13,160 12,660
Feb 2015 16,003 16,629 13,877 13,160
Mar 2015 13,083 14,091 16,629 13,877
Apr 2015 20,634 16,003 14,091 16,629
May 2015 19,658 13,083 16,003 14,091
Jun 2015 18,794 20,634 13,083 16,003
Jul 2015 21,455 19,658 20,634 13,083
Aug 2015 24,549 18,794 19,658 20,634
 Y 2_lag 3_lag 4_lag
Jul 2013 10,964
Aug 2013 11,237
Sep 2013 9,299 10,964
Oct 2013 8,767 11,237 10,964
Nov 2013 7,507 9,299 11,237 10,964
Dec 2013 8,024 8,767 9,299 11,237
Jan 2014 6,682 7,507 8,767 9,299
Feb 2014 5,273 8,024 7,507 8,767
Mar 2014 6,275 6,682 8,024 7,507
Apr 2014 6,048 5,273 6,682 8,024
May 2014 16,436 6,275 5,273 6,682
Jun 2014 11,592 6,048 6,275 5,273
Jul 2014 13,721 16,436 6,048 6,275
Aug 2014 11,076 11,592 16,436 6,048
Sep 2014 12,660 13,721 11,592 16,436
Oct 2014 13,160 11,076 13,721 11,592
Nov 2014 13,877 12,660 11,076 13,721
Dec 2014 16,629 13,160 12,660 11,076
Jan 2015 14,091 13,877 13,160 12,660
Feb 2015 16,003 16,629 13,877 13,160
Mar 2015 13,083 14,091 16,629 13,877
Apr 2015 20,634 16,003 14,091 16,629
May 2015 19,658 13,083 16,003 14,091
Jun 2015 18,794 20,634 13,083 16,003
Jul 2015 21,455 19,658 20,634 13,083
Aug 2015 24,549 18,794 19,658 20,634
21,455 18,794 19,658
24,549 21,455 18,794
24,549 21,455
24,549
 Y 2_lag 3_lag 4_lag
Nov 2013 7,507 9,299 11,237 10,964 SUMMARY OUTPUT
Dec 2013 8,024 8,767 9,299 11,237
Jan 2014 6,682 7,507 8,767 9,299 Regression Statistics
Feb 2014 5,273 8,024 7,507 8,767 Multiple R
Mar 2014 6,275 6,682 8,024 7,507 R Square
Apr 2014 6,048 5,273 6,682 8,024 Adjusted R
May 2014 16,436 6,275 5,273 6,682 Standard E
Jun 2014 11,592 6,048 6,275 5,273 Observatio
Jul 2014 13,721 16,436 6,048 6,275
Aug 2014 11,076 11,592 16,436 6,048 ANOVA
Sep 2014 12,660 13,721 11,592 16,436
Oct 2014 13,160 11,076 13,721 11,592 Regression
Nov 2014 13,877 12,660 11,076 13,721 Residual
Dec 2014 16,629 13,160 12,660 11,076 Total
Jan 2015 14,091 13,877 13,160 12,660
Feb 2015 16,003 16,629 13,877 13,160 Coefficients
Mar 2015 13,083 14,091 16,629 13,877 Intercept
Apr 2015 20,634 16,003 14,091 16,629 X Variable
May 2015 19,658 13,083 16,003 14,091 X Variable
Jun 2015 18,794 20,634 13,083 16,003 X Variable
Jul 2015 21,455 19,658 20,634 13,083
Aug 2015 24,549 18,794 19,658 20,634
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.800283
0.640453
0.580528
3535.381
22

df SS MS F Significance F
3 4.01E+08 1.34E+08 10.68765 0.000291
18 2.25E+08 12498920
21 6.26E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
760.8035 2500.633 0.304244
0.693093 0.264668 2.618726
0.183176 0.271772 0.674005
0.181412 0.28853 0.628746
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.764431 -4492.83 6014.439 -4492.83 6014.439
0.0174 0.137046 1.24914 0.137046 1.24914
0.508872 -0.3878 0.754148 -0.3878 0.754148
0.537413 -0.42477 0.78759 -0.42477 0.78759
1
0
Y 2_lag
7,507 9,299 10778.7
8,024 8,767 10284.65 SUMMARY OUTPUT
6,682 7,507 9114.519
5,273 8,024 9594.644 Regression Statistics
6,275 6,682 8348.362 Multiple R 0.783614
6,048 5,273 7039.859 R Square 0.61405
16,436 6,275 7970.392 Adjusted R 0.594753
11,592 6,048 7759.582 Standard E 3474.921
13,721 16,436 17406.66 Observatio 22
11,076 11,592 12908.16
12,660 13,721 14885.31 ANOVA
13,160 11,076 12428.96 df SS MS
13,877 12,660 13899.98 Regression 1 3.84E+08 3.84E+08
16,629 13,160 14364.32 Residual 20 2.42E+08 12075078
14,091 13,877 15030.18 Total 21 6.26E+08
16,003 16,629 17585.89
13,083 14,091 15228.92 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
20,634 16,003 17004.54 Intercept 2142.956 2147.024 0.998105
19,658 13,083 14292.81 X Variable 0.928675 0.164631 5.64094
18,794 20,634 21305.24
21,455 19,658 20398.85
24,549 18,794 19596.47
19,596.47 RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 10778.7 -3271.7 10704053
2 10284.65 -2260.65 5110537
3 9114.519 -2432.52 5917150
4 9594.644 -4321.64 18676609
5 8348.362 -2073.36 4298831
6 7039.859 -991.859 983784.5
7 7970.392 8465.608 71666527
8 7759.582 3832.418 14687425
9 17406.66 -3685.66 13584081
10 12908.16 -1832.16 3356799
11 14885.31 -2225.31 4951987
12 12428.96 731.0395 534418.8
13 13899.98 -22.9818 528.1629
14 14364.32 2264.681 5128779
15 15030.18 -939.179 882057.8
16 17585.89 -1582.89 2505551
17 15228.92 -2145.92 4604955
18 17004.54 3629.457 13172962
19 14292.81 5365.189 28785249
20 21305.24 -2511.24 6306310
21 20398.85 1056.15 1115453
22 19596.47 4952.525 24527508
 F Significance F
31.820202713 1.61E-05
Chart Title
30000

25000
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.3301520503 -2335.66 6621.57
20000 -2335.66 6621.57
1.605146E-05 0.58526 1.27209 0.58526 1.27209
15000

10000

5000
241501553

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Col umn H Col umn B
18 19 20 21 22