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Asha Baron

11/5/18
Pd. 1
Montana Senator Jon Tester Wins Reelection

The Democrats only need two more seats to gain control of the senate. One of the seats
up for grabs is in Montana. Democratic candidate Jon Tester is up for reelection against
Republican candidate Matt Rosendale. This race is very close, because Tester has the advantage
of incumbency, but Montana is a generally republican state.It is not expected that this race is
close, because many of the demographic factors of Montana would suggest that Rosendale
should be winning the election, however, Jon Tester tends to be the favored candidate. The
Democratic nominee, Jon Tester, will win the seat in the Montana Senate because of
demographic factors such as gender and age and recent poll results.
Two demographic factors that have greatly influenced this election are gender and age.​ ​A
poll done by MNT-MSU sampled 2,079 registered voters in the state of Montana. The results
show that around fifty two percent of women favored Tester, while around thirty nine percent of
women favored Rosendale (“Latest Election”). According to the 2010 census, just under half of
the population of Montana is women ("Community Facts"). Also, generally speaking, women are
more likely to show up at the polls on or before Election Day. A study done by the Center for
American Women and Politics, or CAWP, found that the number of women reported voting in
the 2016 election was over seventy three million, compared to just under sixty four million men
(Center for American Women and Politics, 1). Since more women favor Tester, if more women
do show up to the polls in Montana on Election Day, Jon Tester will most likely win the election.
The same poll done by MNT-MSU showed that people between the ages of forty and fifty nine
favor Rosendale while people over the age of sixty favored Tester (“Latest Election”).​ T ​ his data
would suggest that Montana would vote for Tester, seeing as the majority of their population is
between the ages of twenty five and sixty four ("Community Facts"). However, this poll was
conducted using registered voters as the sample. There is no way to tell how many of the people
surveyed will actually show up to the poll booths on or before Election day. Also, people over
the age of sixty are generally more likely to vote than people of a younger age. According to the
2010 census voting results, of all people age sixty five to seventy four in the United States, just
under seventy three percent reported voting in the election compared to under fifty six percent of
people between the ages of twenty five and forty four ("Voting and Registration"). Since older
people are retired and have more time, more of them tend to go out and vote. Also, because they
were raised in a different time, in which they were taught they needed to go out and do things if
they wanted to make a difference, they are more likely to feel inclined to vote.If these voter
turnout trends occur in the Montana senate election, it is likely that Jon Tester will win the
election.
Recent polling results show that Jon Tester is up in the election. A poll done by
MSU-Billing sampled four hundred seventy one likely voters and had a percent error of plus or
minus three percent. The poll found that forty seven percent of people surveyed preferred Tester,
while only thirty eight percent of people favored Rosendale (“Latest Election”). The margin of
error of the poll is within the generally accepted margin of error of plus or minus three percent,
meaning that the poll is pretty accurate. Also, the poll surveyed likely voters, meaning that most
of the people surveyed will go out and vote on or before election day. If most of the people go
out on election day and vote, Jon Tester will have a higher chance of winning. A poll done by
Gravis sampled seven hundred ten registered likely voters with a percent error of plus or minus
three percent. The poll found that forty nine percent of those polled favored Tester, while forty
five percent favored Rosendale (“Latest Election”). Although the margin of error for this poll is
slightly above the generally accepted margin of error, the pollsters got a large sample size,
meaning that the poll is most likely representing the people in the state of Montana accurately.
Also, the poll sampled registered likely voters, meaning the most of the people who were
surveyed will likely vote on or before election day,which would give Tester a higher likeliness of
winning the election. Both of the polls show favor to democratic candidate Jon Tester.
Due to demographic factors such as gender and age and recent poll results, Jon Tester
will win the seat in the Montana Senate. One thing that Tester is fighting for is easily accessible
and affordable healthcare all across Montana. Although this is a local issue, it could translate into
some of the work Tester will do for the nation if he wins the senate seat. He could also fight for
easily accessible and affordable healthcare all across America. One big takeaway from this race
is that in races similar to this one, in which the candidates are separated by a margin of three
percent or less, every vote counts. This election was very close, at some points separated by less
than fifteen hundred votes. Jon Tester won reelection in the state of Montana because of the
incumbency advantage and his connections with the state. During his campaign, Tester attacked
Rosendale, saying he was a Maryland developer who wanted to develop in Montana, instead of
protecting the land while at the same time maintaining that he was to more authentic Montanan.
Since Jon Tester won the reelection, he will fight to put into action the policies mentioned in his
campaign, including affordable health care statewide and creating jobs for Montanans.
Works Cited

"Community Facts." ​Census​, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2010,


factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml. Accessed
27 Oct. 2018.

"Latest Election Polls." ​Real Clear Politics​, RealClearHoldings, 26 Oct. 2018,


www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/. Accessed 26 Oct.
2018.

Center for American Women and Politics. "Gender Differences in Voter Turnout."
PDF file, 20 July 2017.

"Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2016." ​The United States
​Census Bureau,​ 11 Oct. 2018, www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/
voting-and-registration/p20-580.html. Accessed 5 Nov. 2018.

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