Adcirc Swan

Environ Fluid Mech (2013) 13:601–623
DOI 10.1007/s10652-013-9284-5
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Performance and validation of a coupled parallel

ADCIRC–SWAN model for THANE cyclone
in the Bay of Bengal
Prasad K. Bhaskaran · Sashikant Nayak ·

Subba Reddy Bonthu · P. L. N Murty · Debabrata Sen
Received: 22 September 2012 / Accepted: 14 April 2013 / Published online: 28 April 2013
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract An accurate prediction of near-shore sea-state is imperative during extreme events

such as cyclones required in an operational centre. The mutual interaction between physical
processes such as tides, waves and currents determine the physical environment for any coastal
region, and hence the need of a parallelized coupled wave and hydrodynamic model. The
present study is an application of various state-of-art models such as WRF, WAM, SWAN and
ADCIRC used to couple and simulate a severe cyclonic storm Thane that developed in the Bay
of Bengal during December 2011. The coupled model (ADCIRC–SWAN) was run in a parallel
mode on a flexible unstructured mesh. Thane had its landfall on 30 December, 2011 between
Cuddalore and Pondicherry where in-situ observations were available to validate model
performance. Comprehensive experiment on the impact of meteorological forcing parameters
with two forecasted tracks derived from WRF model, and JTWC best track on the overall
performance of coupled model was assessed. Further an extensive validation experiment
was performed for significant wave heights and surface currents during Thane event. The
significant wave heights measured along satellite tracks by three satellites viz; ENVISAT,
JASON-1 and JASON-2, as well in-situ near-shore buoy observation off Pondicherry was
used for comparison with model results. In addition, qualitative validation was performed for
model computed currents with HF Radar Observation off Cuddalore during Thane event. The
importance of WRF atmospheric model during cyclones and its robustness in the coupled
model performance is highlighted. This study signifies the importance of coupled parallel
ADCIRC–SWAN model for operational needs during extreme events in the North Indian
Ocean.
Keywords Coupled model · ADCIRC · SWAN · WRF · Thane · Significant wave height
P. K. Bhaskaran (B) · S. Nayak · S. R. Bonthu · P. L. N. Murty · D. Sen

Department of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur,
Kharagpur 721 302, India
e-mail: prasadlsu@yahoo.com; pkbhaskaran@naval.iitkgp.ernet.in
P. L. N. Murty
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad 500 090, India
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602 Environ Fluid Mech (2013) 13:601–623
1 Introduction
In operational oceanography the real-time prediction of tides, surges and waves is considered
very vital thereby having wide practical applications in the maritime sector and societal
benefit. The practice in operational centers [15] is to run these models independently, and
thereby make analysis from individual model products. One can find a comprehensive review
of operational oceanography and various methods adopted in Europe from the published work
of [15]. This review work [15] points out the need and importance of coupled models in an
operational scenario. The availability of coupled models for operational needs by scientific
community is quite recent [45]. However, with rapid developments in computational power,
high resolution parallelized ocean models could address complex physical processes and
issues inherent in coastal and near-shore areas. It brings to light the importance of a coupled
modeling system that links the model together through mutual information exchange from
the feedback processes.
In coastal regions the combined effects resulting from physical processes such as tides,
storm surges, waves and currents coexist, and their interactions are important to understand
individual dynamic processes [1,25,44]. The knowledge on how these processes influence
one another in a coastal environment is an important issue, and also an active area of research
at present. Since waves and circulation are linked together, the water level and current affects
the propagation of waves and location of wave breaking zones. The wave radiation stress can
in turn affect the wave induced currents. Past studies reveal that water levels can increase by
5–20 % in regions having broad continental shelf, and by 35 % in regions having steep slopes
[9,16]. There are few works reported for regional seas; such as coupled wave-tide-circulation
system for Yellow Sea and South China Sea [35]. The need for a coupled model is imperative
during energetic events like cyclones, in order to resolve near-shore hydrodynamics. There are
different approaches to couple wave and hydrodynamic models, where the non-linear effects
due to wave–current interaction can be addressed properly when model runs are executed
in a coupled mode. The coupling methodology can be either ‘loose’ or ‘tight’ depending
on the specified grid structure in both these models. The importance of ‘tight’ coupling is
evident when there is no requirement for nesting or overlapping of meshes [11]. Identical
homogeneous mesh in both models allows an accurate descriptor of physics in wave–current
interaction problems. One can find a comprehensive validation of coupled model (SWAN–
ADCIRC) performance for energetic events like hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005), Gustav
and Ike (2008) studied for the Atlantic Ocean. A comprehensive validation study with wave
and water level measurements showed that coupled SWAN–ADCIRC simulated accurately
the evolution of waves and surges [8].
For the North Indian Ocean basin, simulations with SWAN and ADCIRC models were
used for routine hind-cast in standalone mode [5,6,28,29,40]). These studies pertain to one-
way coupling procedure to understand the coastal dynamics. It is worthwhile to note that there
is no published work in the literature using a two-way coupled model for extreme events like
cyclones for the Indian Ocean. Therefore, in the present study application of existing state-
of-art models like WRF, WAM, SWAN and ADCIRC was used to couple and simulate the
Thane cyclone that occurred in the North Indian Ocean. The performance of parallel coupled
model was then investigated under various meteorological forcing.
The Thane cyclone was the strongest tropical cyclone that occurred in the Bay of Bengal
during 2011, and its life span lasted from 25 to 31 December, 2011. The system was rated as
a very severe cyclonic storm on 28th December, with landfall on 30th December in the north
Tamil Nadu coast between Cuddalore and Pondicherry. The system weakened rapidly and
dissipated over neighboring north Kerala in the morning of 31 December, 2011. The JTWC
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Environ Fluid Mech (2013) 13:601–623 603
Fig. 1 Satellite image of Thane

cyclone as on 29 December, 2011
(0735 Z)
Bulletin (2011) reported maximum sustained winds of 165 km h−1 on 29th December, 2011.
The devastation was quite severe and there are reports that Thane left at least 46 deaths in
Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry [37]. Post-cyclone survey conducted by IMD [34] reported
lowest observed mean sea level pressure of 969 mb at Cuddalore, with maximum estimated
wind speed of 139 km h−1 . At Pondicherry maximum winds was about 125 km h−1 at the
time of landfall. The IMD post-cyclone survey [34] also reported that associated storm surge
was about 1 m that inundated low lying areas of Cuddalore, Pondicherry and Villupuram
districts at the time of landfall (Fig. 1).
Severe cyclones are often associated with critical observational data gaps, due to instru-
ment and communication link failures. It was fortunate that in case of Thane cyclone, in
situ data for waves was available from a wave rider buoy located off Pondicherry, and cur-
rent data from HF Radar located at Cuddalore. The actual track of Thane cyclone passed
in between these two locations. This provided us an excellent test bed and opportunity to
validate coupled model performance with measured data. One of the essential inputs to
wave and hydrodynamic models is accurate representation of surface wind fields. In order
to assess the performance of coupled model for Thane cyclone, a comprehensive study on
the meteorological parameters from WRF model with various combinations of microphysics
and cumulus parameterization was performed to evaluate its sensitivity. The most important
and challenging issue in prediction of tropical cyclones are key vital parameters such as the
intensity of sustained winds, pressure drop, track movement and its time of landfall. Based
on several numerical experiments with WRF model, the performance of track prediction and
intensity under various initial conditions, the track displacement error and landfall time was
evaluated. This resulted in two best predicted cyclone tracks for Thane from WRF model
with a lead time of 48 and 24 h used to force the coupled model.
An inter-comparison experiment was then performed with the wind fields generated from
WRF model, and also the dynamic Holland wind formulation using the best track from JTWC.
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In this study, a high resolution finite element mesh with 0.02 million vertexes was generated
that covers the entire Tamil Nadu state. This flexible mesh has a very high resolution along
coast (1 km), and coarse resolution (20 km) along the open ocean boundary. The design of
this grid structure would suffice for wave–current interaction studies and precise computation
of peak surge height [39]. The demand for finer grids (≤250 m) near-shore is an essential pre-
requisite to identify the precise location of peak surge. Identification of peak surge location is
important in context to coastal inundation and flooding characteristics, which is however not
the scope of this study. The open ocean tidal constituents were specified as lateral boundary
condition to the model domain. Numerical experiments was then performed with parallel
coupled model using the best track data from Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), as
well with two predicted cyclone tracks from WRF model. The performance of coupled
model was evaluated based on extensive validation of significant wave heights. The measured
significant wave height from three satellites; ENVISAT, JASON-1, and JASON-2 and a wave-
rider buoy off Pondicherry were used for validating the parallel coupled model computed
significant wave heights. The validation for depth averaged currents was performed using HF
Radar Observations located at Cuddalore. A detailed description of the methodology, model
descriptions with results and discussion are discussed in the subsequent sections.
2 Model description
The present work is an application of component state-of-art models like WRF, ADCIRC,
WAM and SWAN integrated together to understand the evolution of waves and currents for
the 2011 Thane cyclone. A brief description of the component models used for this study is
given below:
2.1 The WRF model
The WRF is a fully compressible, non-hydrostatic mesoscale model with hydrostatic option
[22–24] and using the terrain following hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate and stag-
gered Arakawa-C grid. The present version of WRF [42] is portable in a parallel computing
environment. The WRF model has found wide application in variety of problems that resolves
physical processes having wide spatial scale resolutions. The model physics in WRF takes
into account cloud microphysics, surface layer physics, land surface model, boundary layer,
long and short wave radiation components.
The WRF model used in the present study is only coupled one-way into the SWAN
+ADCIRC model serving as input with no feedback. Numerical experiments was performed
using WRF model (version 3.2) best track derived from ensemble tracks with combina-
tion of 48 and 24 h forecasted wind fields for the Thane cyclone. This provided the intensity
of maximum sustained winds and track prediction for the Thane cyclone. The simulations of
meteorological events at different scales have been well tested using logical combination
of different physical parameterization schemes and data assimilation techniques. In the
present study, the WRF model grid system uses staggered Arakawa-C grid with an integration
time step of 150 s. The case study for Thane event uses the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary
layer scheme [21]. The micro-physics schemes to perform experiments for Thane are the [30]
scheme, Ferrier (new Eta) microphysics, and WSM-6 scheme (details of model configuration
are shown in Table 1). The Dudhia short wave radiation scheme [12] was used for all exper-
iments carried out in this study. The details of model equations is available in the NCAR
technical note.
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Table 1 Details of the WRF

Dynamics Non hydrostatic
model
Data NCEP FNL
GFS
Interval (h) 6
3
Grid size Domain1: (162 × 162) × 27
Domain2: (259 × 259) × 27
Resolution Domain1: 27 km × 27 km
Domain2: 9 km × 9 km
Covered area 2◦ –25◦ N and 72◦ –97◦ E
Map projection Mercator
Horizontal grid system Arakawa-C grid
Integration time step 150 s
Vertical coordinates Terrain-following
hydrostatic pressure
vertical co-ordinate
with 51 vertical levels
Time integration scheme Third order Runga-Kutta scheme
Spatial differencing scheme Sixth order center differencing
PBL scheme YSU
Surface layer parameterization Noah land surface scheme
Microphysics 1. Ferrier (new Eta)
2. Lin et al.
3. WSM 6-class graupel scheme
Short wave radiation Dudhia scheme
Long wave radiation RRT
Cu-physics 1. Kain-Fritsch (new Eta) scheme
2. Grell-Devenyi ensemble
3. Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ)
2.2 Hydrodynamic and wave models
The depth averaged version of ADCIRC (2DDI) model solves the vertically integrated conti-
nuity equation for water surface elevation (ζ ) and vertically integrated momentum equations
for the currents [32] with sophisticated algorithm for wetting and drying that activates and
de-activates the entire grid elements during inundation and recession of coastal topography
[10]. The ADCIRC model used in the present study is a fully parallel version [10].
The simulating waves nearshore (SWAN) numerical model is a state-of-art third generation
wave model designed exclusively to simulate waves in the coastal and near-shore waters, and
developed at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands [4]. The present version of
SWAN used in this study is 40.91 that solve the spectral action balance equation without
any a priori restrictions on the spectrum for the evolution of wave growth. It incorporates the
state-of-the-art formulation for deep water processes relevant to wave generation, dissipation
and the quadruplet wave–wave interactions from WAM model [27] with additional shallow
water processes, such as state-of-the-art formulations for dissipation due to bottom friction,
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triad wave–wave interactions and depth-induced breaking. The WAM cycle 4.5.3 [18] used
in the present study is an updated version of WAM cycle-4 wave model described in [27]. The
basic physics and numerical approaches of wave evolution in space and time are available in
the report of [27]. The WAM 4.5.3 model incorporates the source function integration scheme
proposed by [20] and [3], which is a new semi-implicit method developed at ECMWF.
The tight coupled SWAN–ADCIRC model is used in the present study, wherein the
ADCIRC model runs first on the coupling interval using radiation stress from SWAN during
the previous interval to extrapolate forward the wave forcing in time. Once the time steps of
coupling interval is complete, ADCIRC passes on the wind velocity, water levels, currents
and roughness length to SWAN. The gradient from each element is then projected to the
vertices taking the area-weighted average of gradients on elements adjacent to each vertex.
More details on the coupling methodology, and the domain decomposition algorithm used
for the present study in a parallel computing environment can be found in the published work
of [10]. The technical details of coupled model configuration and model physics options used
for Thane cyclone are described in the following section.
3 Methodology
The flexible finite element mesh used for computation in the parallel coupled (ADCIRC–
SWAN) model is shown in Fig. 2a. The mesh resolution is coarser in the open ocean boundary
having a spatial resolution of 20 km, which reduces to 1 km along the coastline. The mesh used
in the present study comprises of 20,792 vertices and 40,331 triangular elements (Fig. 2a).
The choice of these grid resolutions is supported based on the published work of [39]. Their
study [39] using ADCIRC model highlights the impact of cyclonic wind field on surge-wave
computations utilizing a finite-element and finite-difference models for the Tamil Nadu coast
in the Bay of Bengal. The importance of near-shore grid resolution and representation of
complex coastline and their dependence on computed storm surge is reported in their work.
Fig. 2 a Study area with flexible unstructured mesh, b Bathymetry (in m) of the study region
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Rao et al. [39] also state that a grid size of about 1 km near coast is sufficient and good
enough for the precise computation of surge heights. A grid size of 250 m or less near-
shore is required to capture the peak surge during cyclones [39]. The computation of peak
surge is not within the scope of this study; hence a minimum mesh size of 1 km is justified
along the coastline with a specified minimum water depth of 0.05 m. The coastal inundation
and flooding characteristics from Thane cyclone is also not within the scope of this study.
Therefore, the details of high resolution land topography and floodplains are not considered
in the study area over land to understand the resulting flooding mechanism. The coastal
locations of Kalpakkam, Cuddalore, Pondicherry where Thane had its landfall, as well the
locations of in-situ buoy measurement off Pondicherry and HF Radar observation are shown
in Fig. 2a.
Specification of a high resolution flexible mesh in the near-shore areas can essentially
resolve the complex bathymetry, thereby providing a better depiction of the deep water wave
transformation. The domain decomposition of mesh (Fig. 2a) was performed on 16 cores
and run in a parallel computing environment. The bathymetry of the study region is shown
in Fig. 2b, extracted from the GEBCO 30 arc second resolution. The coupled model used in
the present study uses a bottom friction coefficient of 0.018 [31] based on the Manning’s n
value, and a time step of 10 s. The friction coefficient f and Manning’s roughness n can be
related by:

f D 1/3
n= (1)
2g
where D is the total water depth. The friction coefficient f becomes large when the total
water depth D is small. The total length of model simulation was 4.5 days (starting from
12Z of 25 December, 2011) when Thane was in the depression stage far offshore. The ramp
function for coupled model simulation was prescribed as 1.0 day, with tidal forcing provided
all along the open ocean boundary.
A total of six tidal constituents was identified and prescribed along the open ocean bound-
ary, viz; K1, M2, N2, O1, P1, and S2 [36] for ADCIRC model. The combination of these
six tidal constituents should essentially depict the true tidal field that exists in the Bay of
Bengal. The amplitude and phase of these six tidal constituents prescribed at the open ocean
boundary synchronizes with the model start time (12Z of 25 December, 2011). Thereafter,
marching ahead with time the tidal field propagates freely from open boundary into the study
area.
The SWAN model time step and coupling interval to ADCIRC was prescribed as 600 s.
This ensures that non-linear interaction effects due to changing water level and currents on
the resultant wave field are well represented. The SWAN frequencies range from 0.05 to
1.0 Hz, discretized into 31 bins on a logarithmic scale. The wave directions are discretized
into 36 sectors, having an angular resolution of 10◦ . In the present study, the wind input
based on [43] and modified white-capping expression of [41] was used in the SWAN model.
The modified white-capping dissipation should result in less dissipation at low frequency
components with better prediction of wave periods compared with the default formulation of
[26] in SWAN model. The quadruplet non-linear wave–wave interaction is computed using
the Discrete Interaction Approximation theory [19]. The depth induced breaking is computed
using spectral version of the model with breaking index of γ = 0.73 [2]. The bottom friction
in SWAN is based on the [33] formulation, using 0.05 as the bottom roughness length scale.
The triad non-linear interactions active in shallow waters is computed using the lumped
triad approximation of [14]. Along the open ocean boundary (Fig. 2a), the time varying
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two-dimensional wave energy spectra computed from deep water WAM cycle 4.5.3 run is
prescribed. The computational domain of WAM 4.5.3 is a finite difference grid extending
up to 70◦ S in the Southern Ocean. The time varying two dimensional wave energy spectra
extracted from WAM 4.5.3 for the period corresponding to Thane event was nested to the
boundary of finite element parallel coupled model. The nesting procedure ensures the free
propagation of long swells into the study area.
The computational requirements for coupled model runs are already benchmarked since its
inception [11]. The benchmarking exercise on high performance computing clusters Kraken,
Ranger and Lonestar was performed for hurricane Katrina on SL16 mesh for Gulf of Mexico
and Louisiana. It is reported that coupling procedure does not add overhead to computation,
whereas the coupled physics increases run-time relative to individual models run in stand-
alone mode [8]. In this coupling process, the updated wind velocity, water levels, current
and roughness length for entire computational domain requires SWAN model to iterate more
per time step to achieve the desired level of convergence. This makes the computation more
expensive with a coupled modeling system relative to component models executed in stand-
alone mode [11]. Benchmark studies with hurricane Katrina deciphers that runtime is about
10 min/day of simulation on Lonestar with 8,192 cores [11].
For Thane event the two-way tight coupled (ADCIRC+SWAN) model was run with
Ranger in parallel mode using eight processors. The computational expense for 20,792 finite
element nodes is a clock time of 120 s for a time step of 10 min forecast. The clock time
reduces with an increase in the number of processors. The computational time is also bound to
increase, when the number of finite element nodes in the study domain is further refined. The
mesh resolution influences the computational requirement for each forecast. Increasing the
mesh resolution throughout the study domain leads to increased computational time. Increas-
ing the mesh resolution in deep waters may not prove worthwhile, whereas an increased
resolution in coastal and near-shore waters is very crucial for precise identification of peak
surge location, coastal inundation and associated flooding studies. The component model like
SWAN in standalone (un-coupled) parallel run with 8 processors for a time step of 10 min
consumes 23 s clock time. This computational time will drastically reduce for both cases
of tight coupling and stand-alone mode when number of processors increase in parallel run.
The coastal inundation is not a part in this study; hence coastal floodplains are not included
in the computational domain. The study of coastal inundation requires mesh generation over
floodplains that activate the wetting and drying algorithm during model execution.
4 Results and discussion
4.1 Numerical experiments
Three sets of numerical experiments were performed using the parallel coupled (ADCIRC–
SWAN) model for the Thane event. The first set of experiment uses the best track data of
Thane cyclone from JTWC report. The wind field and atmospheric pressure are calculated at
each node internally by ADCIRC using the dynamic Holland model. The Garret’s formula
is used to compute the wind stress from wind velocity. Based on information from the best
track message files, the symmetric vortex model generates time varying wind field for the
coupled model. The computed wind fields from dynamic Holland model at two different
time instances for Thane event are shown in Fig. 3a, b. The Fig. 3a corresponds to the wind
field of 26 December (12Z), and the same for 29 December (12Z) is shown in Fig. 3b. The
maximum computed wind magnitude for Thane event is about 42 m s−1 .
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Fig. 3 Computed wind field (in m s−1 ) using the dynamic Holland model at two instances for Thane cyclone
Fig. 4 Maximum wave height (in m) for the study region during Thane cyclone a no-coupling, b two-way
coupling
The computed maximum significant wave height and radiation stress from SWAN model
are shown in Figs. 4a, b and 5. The computed maximum significant wave height with SWAN
model run in a standalone mode is shown in Fig. 4a, whereas the parallel coupled model run
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Fig. 5 Computed radiation stress (in m2 s−2 ) from the coupled model
(two-way coupling) is shown in Fig. 4b. A maximum difference of 0.78 m was observed in
the computed significant wave height between the two-way coupling and independent SWAN
run. During the land-fall of Thane the significant wave heights was in the order of about 7.7
m off the Tamil Nadu coast, with peak wave period of 13.6 s.
In the near-shore waters, the breaking waves exert stress on water column resulting in
a change of water level and underlying currents. The largest radiation stress gradient of
0.01m2 s−2 (Fig. 5) occurred during the time of landfall located between south of Kalpakkam
and extending till Cuddalore in the coastal Tamil Nadu belt.
The WRF model was configured for the Bay of Bengal region to simulate Thane cyclone
with two nested domains having horizontal resolutions of 27 and 9 km with 27 pressure levels
(details shown in Table 1).
The centre of model domain is located at 80◦ E and 15◦ N. The model topography was
taken from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at 2 and 30 arc second resolu-
tions respectively. Model simulations were carried out by providing the initial and boundary
conditions from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) FiNaL Analysis
(FNL; 1◦ × 1◦ ) and Global Forecasting System (GFS) data. The time varying lateral bound-
ary conditions are derived at every 6 h interval from the NCEP (GFS) forecast fields. The
estimated/observed intensity and the position of the tropical cyclone are obtained from Joint
Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for com-
parison with model simulations. In the present study, a series of sensitivity experiments was
carried out for Thane cyclone track simulations, intensity and time of land fall to critically
evaluate the WRF model performance with number of initial conditions. A total 18 sensitiv-
ity experiments was performed with different initial conditions using logical combinations
of different parameterization schemes for microphysics and cumulus convection (Table 2).
Firstly, the model was initialized on 25th December 2011 1200UTC and integrated up to
108 h (i.e; 30th December 2011 0000UTC). Thereafter, simulations are performed with all
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Table 2 Details of WRF model

S. no. Initial/boundary Microphysics Cumulus
experiments
conditions (date/time) scheme scheme
1 25122011/00UTC Ferrier BMJ

2 25122011/12UTC Lin et al.
WSM6
3 26122011/00UTC
4 27122011/00UTC
5 28122011/00UTC
6 29122011/00UTC
7 25122011/00UTC Ferrier Grell-
Lin et al. Devenyi
8 25122011/12UTC WSM6 ensemble
9 26122011/00UTC
10 27122011/00UTC
11 28122011/00UTC
12 29122011/00UTC
13 25122011/00UTC Ferrier Kain-Fristch
14 25122011/12UTC Lin et al.
WSM6
15 26122011/00UTC
16 27122011/00UTC
17 28122011/00UTC
18 29122011/00UTC
combination of above mentioned schemes of cumulus convection and microphysics to eval-

uate its sensitivity for wave simulations. In the prediction of tropical cyclone, the intensity of
sustained wind speed, pressure drop, track movement and time of the landfall are considered
to be the most important and challenging issues.
4.2 Evaluation of track performance and intensity with different initial conditions
The evolution of track was assessed with combination of cumulus convection, microphysics
schemes and different initial conditions. Firstly, the track of Thane cyclone was evalu-
ated using above mentioned schemes with the initial conditions of 25th December 2011
1200UTC. Most of the schemes revealed that during the initial phase (depression stage) of
track prediction (26th December 2011 0000UTC) exhibited minimum track displacement
error, which gradually increased up to the formation of Thane cyclone stage (27th December
2011 1800UTC). As cyclone approached towards the coast, track error is found minimum,
but landfall leading time of 12 h is observed. In order to reduce the track displacement error as
well to evaluate the leading and lagging time of landfall, WRF model performed 48 and 24 h
forecast using above mentioned schemes of cumulus convection and microphysics (Table 2).
Finally, the model evaluated best track with minimum displacement track error during
accurate landfall time. The methodology used to estimate the best track is the weighted
average method for all WRF simulated tracks (Fig. 6a). The best track represents the ensemble
of model simulated tracks that can be used for best possible prediction of Thane cyclone.
The model computed best track as compared with available observational tracks of JTWC
and IMD are shown in Fig. 6b.
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Fig. 6 a WRF simulated Ensemble tracks, b best WRF track along with IMD and JTWC tracks
The simulation of WRF with WSM6 and [30] microphysics, and KF cumulus scheme
show that minimum central sea level pressure (CSLP) for the period 26th December
2011 1200UTC to 28th December 2011 1200UTC is close to JTWC and IMD data
(Fig. 7a(ii)). This is due to higher sustained maximum wind speed (Fig. 7b(i)) that even-
tually enhance the release of more latent heat flux. During later part of 28th Decem-
ber, the CSLP of IMD has lower values than WRF simulated CSLP values (Fig. 7a(ii)).
The simulation of WRF model with Ferrier microphysics and GD Ensemble cumulus
scheme depict initially a good agreement with IMD CSLP data (Fig. 7a(i)), thereafter
it shows a less drop than JTWC and IMD CSLP data. The BMJ cumulus scheme per-
forms well during initial stage, however it exhibits larger departure in CSLP during the
time of landfall compared to JTWC and IMD (Fig. 7a(iii)). Based on overall perfor-
mance from all cumulus schemes it is revealed that the KF scheme could be the best
choice to represent pressure drop and comparable with JTWC and IMD CSLP data
(Fig. 7a(ii)).
The simulations of wind speed with Ferrier, WSM-6, and Lin et al microphysics
with GD (Fig. 7b(ii)) and BMJ cumulus scheme (Fig. 7b(iii)) shows that during ini-
tial stage the wind speed is closer to JTWC and IMD. After 28 December 0000UTC,
the maximum WRF winds are under-estimated compared with JTWC and IMD data,
with their values ranging from 10–25 m s−1 (Fig. 7b(ii,iii)). The maximum wind esti-
mate of JTWC and IMD varied between 10 and 47m s−1 (Fig. 7b(ii,iii)). The simu-
lations with Ferrier, WSM-6 and Lin et al microphysics with KF cumulus scheme
(Fig. 7b(i)) show that WRF initially overestimate, and in later stage having good agree-
ment with IMD winds whose magnitude vary from 14–35 m s−1 . The simulation of
maximum winds with KF cumulus scheme during 29 December 0600UTC underesti-
mated the winds compared to JTWC (Fig. 7b(i)). It is observed that during the ini-
tial stage and landfall time the GD scheme performs better compared with other
schemes.
The WRF model has been simulated with best track along with 48 and 24 h forecast.
The experiment with 48 h forecast using WSM6 and [30] schemes show increasing wind
speed ranging from 23–33 m s−1 up to 18 h period. Thereafter, the magnitude decreased to
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Fig. 7 a distribution of central pressure, and b distribution of wind speed along the cyclone track with GD,
KF and BMJ schemes for Thane event
27 m s−1 and at landfall time reached about 33 m s−1 with 4 h lead-time (Fig. 8) compared
to the JTWC and IMD report.
In 24 h forecast, lower winds speeds 22–27 (m s−1 ) are noticed compared to 48 h forecast.
However, the time of land fall in 24 h forecast was accurate. A difference of ∼10 m s−1 in wind
speed is evident between JTWC, IMD and WRF forecasted tracks (Fig. 8). This difference
between JTWC, IMD and model result can be attributed to the initial, boundary conditions
provided from global NCEP FNL and GFS data as well the model spin-up time.
123
Fig. 8 WRF simulated maximum sustained wind speed (m s−1 ) during Thane cyclone with various schemes
compared with observational data of JTWC and IMD
Fig. 9 WRF model simulated best track displacement errors (in km) compared with JTWC and IMD tracks
4.3 Evaluation of track displacement error
An accurate track prediction is considered as most important, and is used to determine

the geographical location where maximum damages due to wind and rain are expected to
occur. Model forecast that produces inaccurate cyclone centre can lead to erroneous landfall
location. Thus, the track prediction is crucial to locate areas of heavy rainfall and wind.
Several numerical experiments were performed to understand the impact of various cumulus
schemes and microphysics to evaluate the Thane track. The best model track is the composite
track, the 48 and 24 h forecast by WRF model.
The model simulated track with 48 h forecast showed a maximum track displacement
error of ∼77 km with JTWC, and ∼66 km with IMD (Fig. 9). Finally, the WRF simulation
with 24 h forecast shows minimum track displacement error of ∼44 km with JTWC, and
∼30 km with IMD with respect to the land fall location. The 48 h forecast has a lead time of
4 h during landfall with maximum displacement error as compared to 24 h forecast.
123
Fig. 10 a Doppler Weather Radar images for base reflectivity (in dBZ) and wind speed (in m s−1 ) and,
b wind field forecasted for 24 and 48 h lead time by WRF model
4.4 Validation of wind intensity and significant wave height
The Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) of India Meteorological Department, Chennai provided
the radar images for Thane cyclone during 29 December, 2011 (09:18 h) prior to its landfall.
This data contains the base reflectivity (in decibel unit dBZ) and radial components of the
wind fields (m s−1 ) at a range of 300 km. The reflectivity basically measures the energy
transmitted by the wave or its amplitude. The top panel (Fig. 10a) represents the DWR image
for reflectivity and associated wind fields; the bottom panel (Fig. 10b) shows the forecasted
wind field for 24 and 48 h by the WRF model.
The DWR image show the eye of cyclone located approximately at a radial distance of
200 km from Chennai. The comparison of wind field between DWR and WRF model for
the same time period shows a reasonable good match, wherein the band of maximum wind
speeds ranged between 29–34 m s−1 as observed in the DWR records (Fig. 10a). The wind
intensity is well captured in WRF model, but there seems to be a deviation in the location of
cyclone eye wall. The 48 h forecast by WRF show the maximum deviation when compared
with DWR observation. The case with 24 h WRF forecast has a very good match compared
to observation.
The validation of significant wave height for the three numerical experiments was per-
formed using the Wave-Rider buoy measurements off Pondicherry (Fig. 11). The buoy obser-
vation at this location was available at 30 min time interval.
123
Fig. 11 Validation of significant wave height (in m) using three different tracks (JTWC best track, 24 and
48 h forecasted tracks with WRF model) for THANE cyclone
The analysis of buoy data show that on average the significant wave height was about
1.5 m during the depression stage of Thane cyclone. The significant wave heights increased
to about 3 m when the cyclone intensified during the later part of 26th December. There
was an intensity drop subsequently which persisted for almost one day until early 28th.
Thereafter, the significant wave heights increased reaching a peak value of 6.01 m during
the landfall time between Pondicherry and Cuddalore. The buoy location was approximately
25 km from the landfall location. The significant wave heights computed using the JTWC best
track at two locations viz; off Pondicherry and Chennai are shown in this figure. The coupled
model computed significant wave height at 30 min time interval. In general, the computed
wave heights using JTWC track show a good match, and especially during landfall time
the peak significant wave heights (5.8 m) exhibit a very good match with buoy observation.
In particular, during 26th December when Thane intensified, the increased significant wave
height evidenced from buoy observations is also well reflected in the model computation.
The JTWC best track message files provide relevant details of cyclone parameters only
at 6 h interval. In the coupled model, using JTWC track the forcing wind fields are also
created at the same time interval. The time step in coupled model was 10 min, wherein time
interpolation was carried out for the six hourly wind fields. The two discontinuities (Fig. 11)
observed in significant wave from JTWC track height during 26 December, 2011 is due to
the rapid variation (rise and fall) in the cyclonic wind speed computed from the Holland
formulation. Moreover, the dynamic Holland formulation creates a symmetric vortex; the
validity of wind field within the radius of maximum winds seems to be reasonable. The
Holland wind formulation highly underestimates wind magnitudes for regions falling outside
the vortex periphery. This is an inherent limitation in the Holland formulation, which can
be improved only through a blending procedure. As seen from Fig. 11, the significant wave
heights show a good match with buoy observations when the cyclone approached the landfall
point, as the radius of maximum winds is well within the vicinity of buoy location. The
computed significant wave height off Chennai, a metropolis in Tamil Nadu state shows that
123
Fig. 12 a HF Radar observations of surface currents, b coupled model computed currents during 29 December,
2011 (12 h)
the maximum wave heights was around 1.3 m. Both the best track with 48 and 24 h WRF
forecast over-estimate the wave heights when cyclone intensified on 27th December. This is
attributed due to higher wind intensity forecasted by the WRF model. In general it is noticed
that during Thane landfall, the 48 h WRF forecast highly underestimate the wave height
(≈3.5 m) attributed due to 4 h leading time in landfall, whereas the performance with 24 h
WRF forecast show a good match (≈5.7 m) due to the accurate landfall time that matches
with JTWC and buoy observation.
The HF Radar observational data was available from 27 December, 2011 (12 h) for
the Thane event. The HF Radar facility is located at Cuddalore that lies 25 km south of
Pondicherry where the Wave-Rider buoy was located. The comparison of currents between
HF Radar and Coupled model is shown in Fig. 12. The HF Radar observes the surface
currents, whereas the ADCIRC 2DDI model computes the depth averaged currents. It is
emphasized that the results of depth averaged currents from ADCIRC (for the near-shore
areas and shallow water depths) should perform reasonably well and that can be compared
with the HF Radar Observations. As noticed from this figure, the qualitative validation of
123
currents shows a good match with observations. The locations of peak coastal currents as
noticed in the observation are well reciprocated in model computation. The stronger cur-
rents (>1 m s−1 ) confined to shallow shelf for Thane event is noticed in depth averaged
currents from ADCIRC as well with HF Radar observation. For areas far from the shore,
depth averaged currents from ADCIRC will be lower than measured surface currents and
should be used with caution. This is a limitation of depth averaged currents, with implications
that current field from ADCIRC 2DDI should be compared only at near-shore and coastal
areas.
Measured wave heights are used for variety of applications that vary from investigations
of wave climate to offshore engineering applications. In a traditional sense, the data coverage
over the oceans is very poor. Routine wave observations are reported by ships of opportunity,
and recently few buoys were deployed at various coastal locations in the Indian Ocean.
The advent of sensors onboard satellites has facilitated data availability especially during
cyclones. The fast delivery satellite products from JASON-1 and ENVISAT altimeters have
proven their efficacy in data assimilation for wave models and also validated with in situ
buoys [13]. One can find more details on the validation experiment of JASON-1 product
[7], the same with ENVISAT reported by [38]. More recently, an extensive validation of
collocated significant wave heights with observational network from National Data Buoy
Centre (NDBC) buoys and Marine Environmental Data Service (MEDS) buoys for the east
and west coast of USA with JASON-1 and ENVISAT altimeters can be found in [13]. The
quality of data from both JASON-1 and ENVISAT satellites showed a good match with
the buoy observations [13]. For the Thane event during 25–30 December, 2011 significant
wave height measurements along track (Fig. 13a) was available from three different satellites
viz; ENVISAT, JASON-1 and JASON-2. A total number of 786 points from these three
satellites was used for the validation of significant wave height with the coupled model. It
is known that the quality of altimeter data near coast has contamination, and therefore has a
tendency to overestimate coastal wave conditions [17]. Hence, the total number of 786 points
used in the present study was taken far offshore away from the coastline. This total of 786
points comprises 350 points from ENVISAT, 377 points of JASON-1 and remaining of 59
points from JASON-2. The validation of significant wave height between coupled model and
satellite data is shown in Fig. 13b. The statistics used in this study are the bias, root-mean
square (RMS) difference, scatter index (SI), and correlation coefficient (R) which is defined
by the following relations:
1
N
Bias = (X j − Y j ) (2)
N
j=1

1 N
RMS = (X j − Y j )2 (3)
N
j=1

N

2
1
N X i − X̄ − Yi − Ȳ
j=1
SI = (4)
Ȳ
N

j=1 X j − X̄ Y j − Ȳ
R = (5)
N
2
2
j=1 X j − X̄ Y j − Ȳ
123
Fig. 13 a Composite tracks of ENVISAT, JASON-1 and JASON-2, and b validation of significant wave height
between model and satellite tracks for Thane cyclone
where, X j and Y j are the significant wave height from altimeter coupled model respectively,
N is the number of samples, and X̄ , Ȳ represents the mean value. The validation statistics
for the overall samples, as well the comparison between individual satellites are shown in
Table 3. The comparison statistics shows a good match between measurements and model
computation, that establishes a good performance of the tight coupled model.
5 Summary and conclusions
The study reports on the application of a parallel coupled (ADCIRC–SWAN) model in the
North Indian Ocean used to simulate extreme waves and currents, a case study with Thane
123
Table 3 Statistics of significant

wave height validation between Bias
satellite and coupled model Overall −0.030989
Between ENVISAT and model 0.006371
Between JASON-1 and model −0.060804
Between JASON-2 model −0.062101
Root mean square difference (MS)
Overall 0.232011
Between JASON-1 and model 0.228055
Between JASON-2 model 0.192374
Scatter index (SI)
Overall 0.077293
Correlation coefficient (R)
Overall 0.984271
cyclone that occurred in the Bay of Bengal during December 2011. The model grid structure
was a finite element mesh with 1 km near-shore, and a coarse resolution of 20 km at the
open ocean boundary. Both SWAN and ADCIRC coupling time interval was prescribed as
600 s, that enables mutual feedback between both models at same time. The radiation stress
estimated from SWAN model was passed on to ADCIRC for similar time-step, and thereafter
ADCIRC estimates the time varying water levels and depth integrated currents subsequently
provided as input to SWAN. The computational time show a high performance skill level
in parallel tight coupled mode that is very vital for an operational forecasting system. This
enables rapid dissemination of information to a decision support system.
The performance of parallel coupled (ADCIRC–SWAN) model was evaluated for the
Thane cyclone based on three numerical experiments. The essential data such as central
pressure, eye location, radius of maximum winds etc. was used to generate cyclonic wind
field from JTWC track, and used to force the coupled model. The wind field for Thane cyclone
was generated using the dynamic Holland formulation at 6 h interval in the first experiment.
The second and third experiment uses the WRF model predicted best tracks. Numerous
experiments was individually performed using WRF with various combinations of model
microphysics and cumulus parameterization to evaluate track performance, intensity and
track displacement error with different initial conditions resulting in two best predicted tracks
for Thane. These two best tracks are derived from the ensemble tracks of WRF simulations.
The selected two cases were then run with lead forecast time of 48 and 24 h. These predicted
tracks were then provided as input to the coupled parallel ADCIRC–SWAN model. Along
the open ocean boundary, six tidal constituents corresponding to the time of Thane event
was also specified, in addition to the time-varying two-dimensional wave energy spectra as
input from deep water WAM run. These boundary conditions were prescribed in addition to
wind forcing for all three numerical experiments. The overall coupled model performance
123
for significant wave height and surface currents was performed between the wave-rider buoy
data off Pondicherry; surface current observation from HF Radar, and significant wave height
derived from satellite tracks of ENVISAT, JASON-1 and JASON-2. The results signify that
computed significant wave heights using JTWC track was 5.8 m, while with WRF 24 h
forecast it was 5.4 m during the time of landfall. There are inherent limitations using the
dynamic Holland formulation, wherein the wind fields within radius of synthetic vortex seems
reasonable. For regions far away from radius of maximum winds, the formulation grossly
underestimates the predicted wind fields. On the other hand, the 48 h forecast track by WRF
underestimates the landfall location as well 4 h leading time during landfall. The validation of
HF Radar surface currents show qualitatively a good match with model computations. A set of
786 points along satellite track from three different satellites exhibits a very good match with
the significant wave heights computed by the coupled model. This study signify that WRF
model with better initial conditions, and best cumulative parameterization of 24 h forecast
performs well that brings out the importance of parallel tight coupled SWAN–ADCIRC model
for forecast of extreme events in the North Indian Ocean which has practical implications for
operational needs.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude, and acknowledge the Indian
National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad under the Ministry of Earth Sciences,
Government of India for providing the Wave Rider buoy data and HF Radar Observations. The Doppler
Weather Radar images are provided by India Meteorological Department, Chennai. Authors also sincerely
thank all the anonymous reviewers for their constructive critical comments to improve the overall quality of
this manuscript.
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Environ Fluid Mech (2013) 13:601–623

Performance and validation of a coupled parallel

Prasad K. Bhaskaran · Sashikant Nayak ·

Abstract An accurate prediction of near-shore sea-state is imperative during extreme events

P. K. Bhaskaran (B) · S. Nayak · S. R. Bonthu · P. L. N. Murty · D. Sen

Fig. 1 Satellite image of Thane

2.1 The WRF model

Table 1 Details of the WRF

2.2 Hydrodynamic and wave models

4 Results and discussion

4.1 Numerical experiments

Table 2 Details of WRF model

1 25122011/00UTC Ferrier BMJ

combination of above mentioned schemes of cumulus convection and microphysics to eval-

4.3 Evaluation of track displacement error

An accurate track prediction is considered as most important, and is used to determine

4.4 Validation of wind intensity and significant wave height

5 Summary and conclusions

Table 3 Statistics of significant

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