Africa-EU Energy Partnership

Status Report Update: 2016

A mid-term report on progress, achievements and future perspectives
Africa-EU Energy Partnership
Status Report Update: 2016
A mid-term report on progress, achievements and future perspectives
 About the Africa-EU Energy Partnership
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) is one of the
eight partnerships created following the December 2007
Lisbon summit, under the Joint Africa-EU Strategy
(JAES) – a long-term framework for co-operation that
allows Africa and Europe to work together to develop a
shared vision, common policy approaches and actions.
This is central to achieving the AEEP’s overall objective –
of improving access to reliable, secure, affordable and
sustainable energy services on both continents.
The AEEP’s efforts focus on meeting a series of concrete,
realistic and visible targets by 2020, as agreed at the
Partnership’s First High Level Meeting, held in Vienna in
September 2010, and at subsequent meetings, of which
the Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held on 16-17 May
2016 at the Politecnico di Milano in Italy, is the latest.
The AEEP receives political guidance from a Steering
Group which is currently made up of representatives of
AEEP 2020 Political Targets
Declaration of the First High Level Meeting of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership
Vienna, Austria, 14 September 2010
“We, African Ministers responsible for Energy, and
European Union (EU) Ministers responsible for Africa-EU
energy relations resolve to work within the AEEP to attain
the following targets, in the timeframe up to 2020:
Energy Access
As a contribution to the African objective of achieving a
continent-wide rate of access to modern and sustainable
energy of around 50%, Africa and the EU will take joint
action to:
• bring access to modern and sustainable energy services
to at least an additional 100 million Africans, focusing
on sustainable models: to provide energy for basic
services (health, education, water, communication); to
power productive activities; and to provide safe and
sustainable energy services to households.
Energy Security
Africa and the EU will take joint action to improve energy
security by:
• doubling the capacity of cross-border electricity
interconnections, both within Africa and between Africa
and Europe, thus increasing trade in electricity while
Steering Group
4 | AEEP
the African Union Commission, the Common Market for
Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt,
the European Commission, Germany and Italy. The AEEP
Secretariat is hosted by the EU Energy Initiative’s
Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF).
The AEEP’s data-monitoring and targets for renewables,
energy access, efficiency and security are the subject of
this report, which updates the AEEP’s 2014 Status
Report (which may be downloaded at http://euei-
pdf.org/aeep-status-report). The 2014 Status Report
described efforts to set benchmarks and monitor
progress to meet the AEEP’s goals, and pointed to
directions for continued action. These included
discussion of whether the AEEP’s 2020 targets should be
revised – a discussion expanded in this Status Report:
2016 Update, ahead of the Second Stakeholder Forum in
Milan.
ensuring adequate levels of generation capacity;
• doubling the use of natural gas in Africa, as well as
doubling African gas exports to Europe, by building
natural gas infrastructure, notably to bring currently
flared gas to market.
Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency
Africa and the EU will take joint action to increase both
energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy in
Africa by:
• building 10,000MW of new hydropower facilities, taking
into consideration social and environmental
standards;
• building at least 5,000MW of wind power capacity;
• building 500MW of all forms of solar energy capacity;
• tripling the capacity of other renewables, such as
geothermal, and modern biomass; and
• improving energy efficiency in Africa in all sectors,
starting with the electricity sector, in support of Africa's
continental, regional and sectoral targets.”
 Contents

AEEP 2020 Political Targets 4 Renewable Energy

Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015 28
Introduction and Key Findings 6
Encouraging partnership: the RECP 29
Progress in a changing environment 7 Installed renewable capacity by technology 29
Map: Africa’s energy infrastructure 9 Map: North African renewables projects 31

Baseline Data Hydroelectric generation, Installed capacity, 2000-15 32

Tracking developments in the African energy sector 10 Solar power grows strongly 34

Aligning with SE4All and other actors 11 Solar generation capacity 35

Wind power generation capacity, 2000-15 36
Information gaps and methodology 12
Tripling other renewables: geothermal and biomass 38
The Policy Environment Map: Sub-Saharan renewables projects 39
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa 14
Coordinating multiple African Energy initiatives 14
Energy Efficiency
Overview, EE Laws and regulations 40
Energy Access Energy intensity 41
Mixed results for key indicators 15 Network losses 43
Improving market economics, Progress in electrification 16
African and European Contributions
Map: Access to electricity and non-solid fuels 17
African national government budget allocations 45
Questions about clean cooking 18
Subnational spending 46
Access to electricity and non-solid cooking fuel, 2012 19
Emerging private sources 47
Offgrid issues 20
European contributions 48
Energy Security
Targets to 2020 and Beyond 49
Installed capacity by technology, 2010 and 2015 21
Map: Power pools, power lines and PIDA projects 22 Imprint 50

Doubling cross-border interconnections 23

Doubling the use of natural gas 25
Consumption of natural gas in Africa, 2000-14 25
Map: Natural gas infrastructure and trade routes 26
Africa gas exports to Europe, 2000-14 27
Exporting gas from Africa to Europe 27

Abbreviations Definitions
bcm billion cubic metres km kilometre Hydropower includes micro-hydro and pumped storage
bn billion kV kilovolt projects unless otherwise stated.

C02e C02 equivalent kW kilowatt Biomass for electricity generation (rather than, cooking)
covers the burning of organic matter . This category of
CSP concentrated solar m million
power
‘Other Renewables’ includes waste-to-power projects.
MJ/$ million joules/dollar
GJ gigajoule Solar is utilised as a semantic covering any form of
MW megawatt electricity generation which uses the sun as its sole
GW gigawatt (MW1,000) energy source unless further specified.
PV photovoltaic
h hour (as in GWh)
tcf trillion cubic feet Thermal covers fossil fuels such as petroleum products
HEP hydroelectric power and coal when used for electricity.
t/yr tonnes a year

AEEP | 5
Introduction
Status Report: 2016 Update
The First AEEP Status Report was published to coincide
with the Second High Level Meeting of the Africa-EU
Energy Partnership, held in Addis Ababa in February 2014.
It was the result of more than two years of work
conducted by the AEEP Secretariat, its consultants and
stakeholders, to help the Partnership to meet its objective
of tracking progress against the AEEP 2020 Political
Targets and inform decision-making in Africa-EU energy
cooperation. In this, it conformed with the mandate
established for the AEEP at the 2007 Africa-EU Summit
held in Lisbon: to establish benchmarks by which the
Partnership’s Political Targets could be measured.
The report’s origins were in a comprehensive baseline
study, Monitoring Progress under the AEEP, which was
launched at the AEEP’s First Stakeholder Forum in Cape
Town, South Africa in May 2012. The 2014 Status Report
was notable for operationalising the AEEP Monitoring Tool
– a Power Project Database containing more than 3,250
individual generation projects, along with details of
transmission lines, cross-border connections and export
markets, and other data. The 2014 Status Report was an
ambitious project; it is a reflection of the lack of data
about many African energy sectors that there had been
little like it to date. Indeed, judging from feedback
received by the AEEP, the project is still seen as
authoritative in 2016, when the need to collect and collate
more accurate data has risen up the global agenda,
following an upsurge in international attention paid to
African energy issues from initiatives such as the United
Nations-led Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), US
President Barack Obama’s Power Africa and the African
Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI).
The Monitoring Tool’s principal aim was to track progress
towards achieving the AEEP 2020 Political Targets. The
report set the stage for ground-breaking monitoring of
electricity generation capacity and cross-border electricity
and gas interconnections on the continent. This was work
carried out directly by the AEEP and has been updated for
this report, which benefits from a database with more
than 3,000 generation projects.
Constraints on resources mean that external sources were
used to benchmark other key targets – for energy access
and energy efficiency – following rigorous analysis of the
data by the AEEP Secretariat. This remains the case for this
Status Report Update. Analysis of published data suggest
that, in Africa, the goals of universal energy access and
accelerated rates of improvement in energy efficiency
6 | AEEP
remain elusive goals. As the 2014 Status Report observed,
the situation is not helped by the poor quality of much of
the existing data. While far from perfect, the Global
Tracking Framework (GTF)– established within the SE4All
framework and driven by a Steering Group led jointly by
the World Bank Group’s Energy Sector Management
Assistance Programme (ESMAP) and the International
Energy Agency (IEA) – has started to produce more
authoritative data sets, which are expected to improve
further in the next few years. This data is used for access
and efficiency indicators in this report.
This Status Report Update is to be launched at the AEEP’s
Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan, Italy on 16-
17 May 2016. It is hoped that its data and analysis will
help the AEEP’s diverse community of stakeholders – who
include governments, public institutions, civil society,
academia and business – to take stock of progress to date
and develop policy for Africa and Europe to move ahead.
A critical issue to be informed by this report is whether,
following nearly a decade of growth in the African energy
industries, the AEEP’s political targets are still relevant in
developing sustainable energy systems. The AEEP Power
Project Database shows that solar power capacity
installed since the 2010 baseline already far exceeds the
AEEP 2020 Political Target of adding 500MW.
Discussions held in preparation for the Second Stakeholder
Forum in Milan suggest it may be appropriate to ask if the
Political Targets’ timeframe should be extended. A number
of major initiatives – including SE4All, AREI and Power
Africa – have a shared target date: 2030. In September
2015, the United Nations unveiled 17 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs), which are intended as a
baseline for harmonising global action to tackle poverty.
SDG Goal 7 provides a commitment to “ensure access to
affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” by
2030. Goal 7 aims closely align with other AEEP targets,
with commitments to substantially increase renewables’
share of the global energy mix and doubling the global
rate of improvement in energy efficiency.
Research into the multiplicity of global initiatives
conducted for the AEEP and published in a new report,
Mapping of Energy Initiatives and Programmes in Africa,
concluded that given the large variety of multi-country,
multi-stakeholder initiatives and aid programmes, a more
systematic exchange of information and increased co-
ordination are needed. Aligning the AEEP’s Political Targets
might be one contribution in this direction.
 Key Findings

Progress despite frustrations
The world in which the Africa-EU Energy Partnership
(AEEP) functions is changing, with many more actors
becoming involved in the electricity sector. The AEEP has
contributed to pushing energy to the top of the Africa-EU
agenda and has helped to shape global initiatives such as
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All). Its remit remains to
provide a framework in which policies and projects – the
African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), among others –
can be implemented with high levels of delivery and
stakeholder buy-in. It will push ahead on this agenda with
the AEEP’s Second Stakeholder Forum, to be held in Milan.
how cooperation can be further intensified and project
implementation and coordination enhanced to help
improve the lives of many millions in Africa and Europe.
The report recognises that much remains to be done in
compiling the data necessary to inform these decisions. In
a transitional period for data-gathering on African energy
sectors, AEEP stakeholders – many of them now also
involved in complementary initiatives, such as SE4All and
its Global Tracking Framework (GTF) – are committed to
making up the information gap to obtain accurate data on
African access, energy efficiency and other indicators.

This Status Report Update builds on previous work to give
an overview of progress towards meeting the AEEP’s 2020
Political Targets – using the AEEP Monitoring Tool and its
ground-breaking Africa Power Projects Database. The
report should also provide a platform for discussion of
Renewable generation is growing
Renewable energy (RE) generation capacity has been
increasing, as shown in the graphic below, which is based
on analysis and estimates drawn from the AEEP Power
Project Database. The data for generation plants in

AEEP renewable generation targets

Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015, 60 75% scenario: 55.30
and AEEP 2020 targets GW 50% scenario: 48.63
40 AEEP target: 43.01
Linear trend: 37.36
45 25% scenario: 41.97
20
GW
43.01 Hydroelectric
power
0
40 2010 2015 2020

8 75% scenario: 8.30

35 35.18 GW 50% scenario: 6.62
33.01 6 AEEP target: 6.12
Linear trend: 5.14
4 25% scenario: 4.93
30
2

0
25 2010 2015 2020

75% scenario: 2.98

3 AEEP target: 2.94
GW
20 50% scenario: 2.49
2 Linear trend: 2.05
25% scenario: 2.00

15 1

0
2010 2015 2020
10

6 75% scenario: 5.96

6.12 Wind GW
5 50% scenario: 4.61
4
1.12
3.13
2.94
Other 25% scenario: 3.25
1.55 renewables Linear trend: 2.99
0.98 2
1.50 0.60 Solar
0 0.10
2010 2015 2020 AEEP target: 0.60
targets 0
2010 2015 2020
Source: AEEP Power Project Database

AEEP | 7
Key Findings
operation and planned for completion in the period to
2020 suggest that in some sectors – such as the
installation of solar capacity – developments have largely
surpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, which were
agreed in 2007, when the global renewables industry was
at a very different stage of development.
Hydroelectric power
Hydroelectric power (HEP) remains the dominant RE
technology supplying African grids. Between 2010 and
2015, 2,174MW of HEP capacity was added. Further,
rehabilitation work has been undertaken at a large
number of dilapidated facilities, improving performance
and reliability. While large HEP projects dominate the AEEP
Power Project Database, smaller projects can have a very
big impact in providing energy for isolated communities.
Solar capacity exceeds projections
Solar capacity started at a very low level, but has enjoyed
exponential success. The AEEP’s Political Target of adding
500MW more generation capacity by 2020 was met only
four years after the 2010 baseline was set – and is
expected to have been met four times over by the end of
2016. Installed capacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW,
compared with 103MW in 2010.
Wind power
Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been added,
more than doubling the 2010 capacity of 1,120MW.
Analysis of the project pipeline suggests the AEEP Political
Target of adding 5,000MW by 2020 can be met, if 43% of
the planned projects are completed on time.
Other renewable technologies
The AEEP database shows that some 1,410MW must still
be added to triple the amount of generation from biomass
and geothermal resources from their 2010 levels. Because
timelines for some Kenyan geothermal projects have
slipped, 73% would have to be completed on time for the
AEEP target to be reached. While biomass in 2015 had
more capacity – 950MW compared with 554MW for
geothermal – geothermal capacity is anticipated to
overtake biomass in 2017-18.
Indicators for access
Indicators for access to electricity and clean, sustainable
cooking fuels remain inexact, and GTF statistics published
to date are a work in progress, but they show an overall
improvement in electricity access: in 2012, 516m Africans
had access to electricity – leaving 570m without. The
average compound annual growth rate rose from 3.9% in
2000-10 to 6.1% in 2010-12. In terms of new connections,
8 | AEEP
this represents an increase from an average of 14.4m
people gaining access to electricity each year between
2000 and 2010, to 28.9m in 2010-12. If this annual
increase can be sustained, Africa is likely to achieve the
AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020. Meanwhile, only
32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cooking fuel in
2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely up from
31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990.
Energy efficiency
Energy intensity – calculated as units of energy per unit of
GDP – is a measurable (if imperfect) indicator of energy
efficiency. World Bank/SE4All data suggests that Africa
experienced a decrease in average final energy intensity of
20% (or an average 2.9% per year) in 2000-12. Network
losses remain a problem across Africa, but are exhibiting a
stable trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and
2012 (from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change in 2010-12.
Energy security reinforces connections
The slow pace of Programme for Infrastructure
Development in Africa (PIDA) projects and other cross-
border schemes have slowed increases to electricity
transfer capacity; the database shows no new operating
lines completed since 2011. But recent progress on
regional transmission projects suggests that, with
improved project delivery, the AEEP target of doubling
capacity by 2020 could be met. Among other energy
security targets, gas consumption in Africa plateaued in
2012-14, due to political and economic challenges that
have also had an impact on gas exports to Europe, which
fell to 46bcm in 2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006.
Financial support continues to grow
Increasing levels of financial support are shown in data for
African and European contributions – which, although still
incomplete, point to positive trends. These include an
increase in allocations to energy in African government’s
annual capital spending budgets, for which initiatives such
as PIDA are adding to, and volumes of multilateral loans.
AEEP should consider revising targets
Efforts to harmonise the growing number of African
energy-focused initiatives – the subject of a separate AEEP
study to be presented in Milan – together with increased
focus on private sector investments and the contribution
of global initiatives like GTF towards better understanding
energy access and efficiency, suggest the AEEP should
consider revisions to its 2020 Political Targets, both in
terms of what is expected and the appropriate timeframe.
2030 is the chosen date for SE4All and AREI, the
Sustainable Development Goals and other benchmarks.
 Key Findings

Africa’s energy infrastructure National boundary

Major gas fields and recent

Bizerte To Italy significant discoveries
To Spain ALGIERS Skikda
TUNIS
Constantine TUNISIA (Lower Egypt)
Tangier Oran Gas pipeline
69 Arzew To Italy 6 7 12 29 30 31 43 46 49 53 58 60
Oujda Sidi Bel La Skhira
GULF OF
RABAT Abbès Gabès
Casablanca Fès GABÈS
NILE
ZOHR Major power generation
TRIPOLI
65 M O R O C C O HASSI 32 Misratah Benghazi Tobruk
DELTA
To Israel
projects:
R’MEL BERKINE
70 Marrakech BASIN
62 8
Idku Damietta Commissioned
Port Said
Agadir
Béchar
Ghadames
Marsa
Al-Brega
Alexandria
Suez To Jordan Pipeline
Ras WESTERN Ain Moussa
ALGERIA GHADAMES Lanuf DESERT
CAIRO Taba
26
BASIN
Tarfaya ILLIZI SIRTE Sarir Minya
Adrar
BASIN Sabha BASIN Zeit Bay Hydroelectric (including
SAHARA In Salah Asyut Hurghada
El Ayoun FIELDS LIBYA pumped storage: PS)
Boujdour
EGYPT El Hamrawein
Western
Sahara S a h a r a 13 Luxor 23 27 39
Thermal (oil, gas, coal)
(under UN Al-Kufra 34
mandate) Tamanrasset Abu L.
Bordj Simbel Nasser Halaib
Mokhtar Other (solar, wind,

e
Nouadhibou

Nil
Atar Port geothermal, nuclear)
Sudan
MA U R I T A N I A
CAPE NOUAKCHOTT Arlit
VERDE BANDA MALI Power line
NIGER Atbara
GREATER Timbuktu
Gao Agadez SUDAN
TORTUE Néma ERITREA
Ni

St-Louis 41 Kassala
CHAD
ge

PRAIA Massawa
r

DAKAR KHARTOUM Wad ASMARA

SENEGAL Kayes NIAMEY Maradi Medani
Ségou BURKINA Zinder Abéché
BANJUL El Fasher Gedaref Mekele Assab
FASO Sokoto L. Chad
THE GAMBIA El Obeid L.Tana

Bl u
BAMAKO Kano Maiduguri N’DJAMENA DJIBOUTI
BISSAU Bobo OUAGADOUGOU Renk

eN
Dioulasso Dese DJIBOUTI
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA NIGERIA Maroua

ile
BENIN 4 VILLE Bosaso

le
Dire
Ch

Kankan Ferkessédougou Kaduna

Ni
Tamale e 45 35 Dawa Berbera
57
ari

CONAKRY
TOGO ABUJA Sarh it Hargeisa
Wh
u
e

FREETOWN CÔTE GHANA en ADDIS ABABA Harer Garowe

SIERRA LEONE L. Volta Ibadan AjaokutaB
MONROVIA D’IVOIRE Kumasi 67 Lagos Enugu 22
Ngaoundéré
CENTRAL
Wau S O U TH 54 48 ETHIOPIA

IA
SUDAN 42 CALUB,
Te

LIBERIA YAMOUSSOUKRO Ab.

21 AFRICAN REPUBLIC o
25 PortCAMEROON
m

Om
HILALA

AL
Africa’s largest
PO V
a

Harcourt BANGUI
NO É
LO RA
Ab

RT O

JUBA

M
San-Pedro Negele
power projects Douala
AC
id

O-
M

U Ž lŽ

SO
47 YAOUNDÉ
ja

FOXTROT,
C

5
n

(final capacity in gigawatts) PANTHÈRE NIGER DELTA L.Turkana

SA UB ND

MALABO Buta Gulu

OF E
NK ILE

Congo
A
J A

Projects in bold are included EQUAT. GUINEA Kribi

N, EL

L. Albert UGANDA 40 MOGADISHU

AVIL GO
TE U,

Juba
D

in PIDA’s Priority Action Plan S. TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Kisangani Bunia KAMPALA

•• K E N Y TA
KU

LE)
AZZ O N

LIBREVILLE
1 Grand Inga 39.0 SÃO TOMÉ Mbandaka
L. Edward Kisumu
(BR O F C

an

2 Thyspunt or Duynefontein
Port-Gentil GABON Mbarara Kismayo
a

D E M O C R A TI C RWANDA Lake NAIROBI

nuclear 9.6 R E P U BL I C O F L.Kivu KIGALIMwanza
Victoria
.

••
REP

LEOPARD
3 REIPPP Rounds 1-4 6.3 M’BOUNDI BRAZZAVILLE
Bandundu C O N G O Bukavu
BUJUMBURA SEYCHELLES
4 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Pointe-Noire KINSHASA BURUNDI Arusha Mombasa
LITCHENDJILI Kigoma Lake Pemba I. VICTORIA
Dam (GERD)
Lualaba

6.0 1 9 63

••
OFFSHORE CABINDA Kananga Tanganyika Tanga
Matadi Zanzibar I.
5 Upper White Nile 5.0 Kalemie DODOMA

••
LOWER CONGO BASIN Soyo
Mbuji- TA N Z A N I A Dar es Salaam
Kasa•

6 Beni Suef 4.8 39 El Hamrawein 2.0

••
Mayi Iringa CHEWA, PWEZA
LUANDA 38
7 Burullus 4.8 40 EmuruangogolakÐ L. Mweru SONGO SONGO
Mbeya
8 El Daba nuclear 4.8 Barrier geothermal 2.0 37 56

10
9
••
Inga III
Kusile
4.8
4.8
41
42
•• Solar Euromed
Gilgel Gibe IV
2.0
2.0
LONTRA
Sumbe ANGOLA Kolwezi
Lubumbashi
64
Mtwara
Songea
OFFSHORE RUVUMA/
ROVUMA BASIN
COMOROS

•• ••
Kuito Lake Malawi Antsiranana
Benguela Luena MALAWI (Lake Nyasa) MORONI
11 Medupi 4.8 43 Helwan South 2.0 Huambo Ndola LILONGWE Lichinga Mayotte
Pemba
12 New Capital 4.8 44 Hendrina 2.0 ZA M BI A
•• ••
Menongue (Fr.)
Cun ene

Namibe Nacala
13 FiT Rd.1 wind & solar 4.3 45 Mandaya 2.0 Mongu
LUSAKA Blantyre Mahajanga
Cu

36
14 Kendal 4.1 46 Safaga 2.0 Zambezi 61 52

•• ••
ba

E
ngo

15 Majuba 4.1 47 Grand Eweng 1.0–2.0 Livingstone 28 HARARE

Q

Rundu 55 Quelimane
16 Matimba 4.0 48 Gilgel Gibe III 1.9
•• ••
BI

Hwange Toamasina
Maun ZIMBABWE
ANTANANARIVO
AM

17 Lethabo 3.7 49 Damanhur CC 1.8 Tsumeb

Gweru Beira MAURITIUS
18 Tutuka 3.7 50 Koeberg nuclear 1.8 PANDE MADAGASCAR PORT

•• ••
LOUIS
MOZ

Francistown Bulawayo
19 Duvha 3.6 51 Mmamantswe 1.8 N A M I BI A Ghanzi TEMANE
p
Selebi-Phikwe Lim opo Réunion
20 Matla 3.6 52 Ncondezi 1.8
•• ••
Walvis (Fr.)
Bay BOTSWANA 11PRETORIA Toliara
21 Lekki 3.7 53 Cairo West 1.7 WINDHOEK 51 16 Inhambane
22 Mambilla 3.1 54 Tams 1.7
•• ••
GABORONE
Tolanaro
¨
23 El Hamrawein 3.0 55 Batoka Gorge 1.6 Johannesburg MAPUTO
Keetmanshoop Secunda
24 Kriel 3.0 56 Caculo Cabaça 1.6
•• •• Lüderitz Sasolburg
MBABANE (Mpumalanga)
SWAZILAND
25 Ogorode 2.8 57 Karadobi 1.6 O ra al 10 14 15 17 18 19 20 24 33 44 59
n ge
Va

KUDU Kimberley 68
26 Ain Moussa I & II 2.6 58 Cairo North 1.5
•• ••
Richards Bay
Alexander Pietermaritzburg
27 El Hamrawein 2.4 59 Camden 1.5 Bay Bloemfontein Durban
IBHUBESI M ASE
28 Sengwa (Gokwe N.) 2.4 60 Giza North II & III 1.5 SOUTH RU
29
30 Dairut
••
Beni Suef IPP 2.3
2.3
61
62
•• Mphanda Nkuwa 1.5
Al-Khalij 2 1.4
AFRICA
LESOTHO

•• ••
3
66 East London
31 Nubaria I-III 2.3 63 Inga II 1.4 50 Mossel
Cape Town Bay Port Elizabeth
32 TuNur solar 2.3 64 Luapula River 1.4
33
34
Arnot
Aswan High
•• 2.1
2.1
65
66
•• Jorf Lasfar
Ankerlig
1.4
1.3
2
BREDASDORP
Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics
35
36
Beko Abo
Cahora Bassa
•• 2.1
2.1
67
68
•• Egbin
Ingula PS
1.3
1.3
FiT: Feed-in Tariff
REIPPP: Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement
37
38
Lauça
••
Stiegler’s Gorge
2.1
2.1
69
70
•• Nador
Safi
1.3
1.3
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database;
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)

AEEP | 9
Baseline Data
Tracking developments in the
African energy sector
The First AEEP Status Report introduced the AEEP
Monitoring Tool – the African Power Project Database
containing more than 3,259 individual generation projects,
along with details of transmission lines, cross-border
connections and export markets, and other data. The
principal aim of the database was to track progress
towards achieving the AEEP 2020 Political Targets. The
report set the stage for ground-breaking monitoring of
electricity generation capacity and cross-border electricity
and gas interconnections on the continent. The Database
has been updated for this Status Report Update.
The approach allows continent-wide statistics to be traced
back to their origin in the power plants that generate the
electricity. This makes the statistics more transparent – in
a sector that is often reputed for its opacity – while
facilitating the analysis of developments in a way not
possible in other systems.
In this way, the AEEP Monitoring Tool allows policy-makers
to understand how progress towards the Political Targets
agreed at its First High Level Meeting in Vienna, Austria in
September 2010 – which were confirmed in February 2014
at the AEEP’s Second High Level Meeting – are being
achieved. It is intended to help the AEEP’s varied
community of stakeholders to better understand trends,
and identify opportunities and problems.
There has been a greater focus on improving the quality of
monitoring of the African energy sector since the original
AEEP Baseline Monitoring Report in 2012. At the forefront
of these efforts has been the Sustainable Energy for All
(SE4All) initiative, now established as a permanent
secretariat in Vienna and sponsor of Global Tracking
Framework (GTF), whose Steering Group is led jointly by
the WBG’s Energy Sector Management Assistance
Programme (Esmap) and the International Energy Agency
(IEA).
The latest SE4All Global Tracking Framework Report,
published in 2015, showed significant progress towards
better quality of data relating to energy access in
particular. While the AEEP has been able to mobilise
resources to monitor generation, it has not been
positioned to carry out similar levels of data collection on
issues of access and efficiency – although the Partnership
10 | AEEP
has active work streams which are heavily focused on
other facets of these issues. For this reason – and
reflecting the strong support offered by African and
European governments to SE4All and the GTF process –
this report depends on GTF data.
There has been recognition of the need to provide
comprehensive coverage of the continent at the same time
as improving the depth of coverage. However,
shortcomings remain. Improved data on energy access
along the tiered system model is only available for a
minority of countries. Datasets for the continent as a
whole remain, in large part, a modelling exercise
dependent on old data points. Furthermore, even with the
acceleration of work by SE4All/GTF, the latest available
data is for 2012. Using existing data alone makes
understanding the effects of energy access and efficiency
programmes initiated early in the decade impossible to
determine.
Since its creation in 2007, the AEEP has taken a lead in
statistical analysis and benchmarking key sectors of
African energy. This pioneering approach has been
reflected in subsequent initiatives such as SE4All and
many more. It is given substance by the AEEP Monitoring
Tool, which is able to provide reliable and up-to-date
electricity generation and interconnection statistics up
until 2015 and beyond.
Gaining an understanding of the weaknesses apparent in
datasets that might support more accurate benchmarking
of AEEP and other monitoring of African energy indicators
has been a substantial element in the Partnership’s work.
Helping to strengthen methodological approaches and
data-gathering will continue to be an important area of
work as the AEEP strives to meet its goals.
Tracking from the ground up
The data underpinning the Monitoring Tool comes from
three key sources: the AEEP Power Project Database, the
GTF and BP. The database contains information on
operating and planned power plants and electricity
interconnections in Africa, allowing the installed capacity
of renewable and other energy technologies to be tracked
accurately through time.

The dataset – while a work in progress – is continually
updated, allowing real-time analysis of events and trends
in the sector.
The AEEP Power Project Database, which also provides the
basis of the interconnection and renewable energy power
generation statistics in this report, attempts to remove the
opacity and improve on the reliability of existing datasets.
It records detail including each of the recorded project’s
name, location, size and fuel type for over 3,250 actual and
planned generation plants across the continent.
The approach of individually researching, verifying and
recording power projects in 50 countries cannot claim to
be comprehensive or guarantee the accuracy of all of the
data. The approach is limited in its ability to record certain
types of data, which may be increasingly important as
more off-grid solutions are implemented to overcome
generation shortfalls; one example would be statistics on
solar water heaters and household energy solutions (such
as solar home systems and diesel generators).
The AEEP’s current approach may also lack the authority of
aggregations based on data received from efficient, well-
resourced national statistical offices. However, despite
shortcomings, the AEEP is confident that this work is an
improvement on comparable datasets – and provides a
platform for further African-European cooperation to
develop monitoring.
Baseline Data
Aligning with SE4All
Given the realities of developing comprehensive efficiency
and access statistics and the global efforts already under
way, the AEEP has opted for a strategy of aligning its
monitoring with SE4All, which is establishing benchmarks
for access data.
Supported by a wide range of major public and private
stakeholders, SE4All published its Global Tracking
Framework in May 2013. The report marked a break with
previous African energy statistics, endeavouring to provide
data for every country on the continent, as well as putting
in place financial and technical support to produce better
quality statistics in countries that signed up to the SE4All
programme. The second GTF report in 2015 built on this
model, and showed the process was starting to make
progress in some areas.
The SE4All database contains estimates of access to
electricity and non-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensity
and electricity transmission and distribution losses for all
but a handful of African countries. Using modelling
techniques, the GTF takes data from surveys carried out to
international standards to produce estimates of data
points for years and countries where no data currently
exists. The underlying data set is aggregated from the
WBG’s Global Electrification Database,the IEA and the
World Health Organisation’s Household Energy Database.
AEEP | 11
Baseline Data

Tracking energy security indicators
Within the AEEP’s energy security remit, information on
pipeline and LNG natural gas exports from Africa to Europe
and the consumption of natural gas is contained in the
annual Statistical Review of World Energy, published by BP
plc. This report is well respected internationally and has
been published since 1951, providing an unrivalled
dataset.
These data sources together form the AEEP Monitoring
Tool, which tracks progress towards the AEEP 2020
political targets.
Overcoming information gaps…
In many areas, progress will understandably take time,
given the need to develop the capacity and independence
of national statistical offices and to undertake large-scale,
very detailed surveys. In many countries, household
surveys to gain a much deeper picture of energy use are
only just beginning. Data gaps thus remain.
The absence of up-to-date energy access statistics means
that analysts are reliant on estimates for data, which can
have only limited responsiveness to policy reforms and
new initiatives. In energy efficiency, SE4All data on
network losses is implausibly volatile. In the case of the
statistics for Botswana, the dataset estimates a low of
11.1% in 2001 but a high of 158% in 2012. Similarly, for
Togo the figures fluctuate between 40.1% and 129%.
Clearly there are serious questions to be asked about the
dataset.
Constrained resources at national statistical offices,
coupled with very widely dispersed populations,
communications and transport infrastructure restrictions,
limited state presence in some locations, large informal
economies and the ubiquitous use of diesel generators,
the poor condition of much existing infrastructure, all
contribute to a high degree of uncertainty and
complication in data production and analysis.
…needs a lot of resources
Reporting by national utilities and governments has often
left much to be desired when it comes to providing up-to-
date, comprehensive and publicly available statistics. But
there has been some improvement as energy regulators

AEEP 2020 Political Target Baseline 2010 Numeric AEEP 2020

2020 Target Will the target be met or missed by 2020?

Energy Security

Double capacity of cross-border interconnections 9,230MW 18,460MW Missed on current trend

Double the use of natural gas in Africa 108bcm 216bcm Missed on current trend

Double African gas exports to Europe 79bcm 158bcm Current trend is negative

Renewable Energy

Missed on trend since 2010. Achieved on

10,000MW Hydro 33,010MW 43,010MW
optimistic and balanced pipeline scenario
Missed on trend since 2010. Achieved on
5,000MW Wind 1,120MW 6,120MW
optimistic and balanced pipeline scenario

500MW Solar 103MW 603MW Already achieved

Missed on trend since 2010

Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) 981MW 2,943MW
Achieved in optimistic pipeline scenario only
Energy Efficiency

Network losses (%) 12.7 na No target defined

Energy intensity (MJ/US$2011 PPP) 6.7 na No target defined

Energy Access

Comfortably achieved if trend since 2010 is

Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 458m 558m
maintained

Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 336m 436m Missed by 10m on trend since 2010

12 | AEEP
 Baseline Data

and new management practices have had time to embed

somewhat more open reporting cultures.

The situation is especially acute when it comes to

assessing levels of access to modern, sustainable energy.
For example, in some cases an electricity connection to
one or a cluster of houses may be registered as a whole
settlement or even town having access, which would
clearly skew the data. This report – like other work in the
sector – remains subject to these .

Given limited options, this report uses the best of the data
available to produce estimates of trends and quantities, in
the case of several key indicators following unique
research work carried out for the AEEP.

The data set out in the following pages is of sufficient

quality to illustrate trends and provide an indication of
current values and rates. It does not claim to be either
definitive or infallible, but it aspires to making a
contribution towards better understanding the trends by
which African populations can be supplied with the clean,
sustainable energy, to which it is everyone’s right to have
access.

Historical trends for 2020 target Scenarios

(based on annual average increases) (based % on current project pipeline)

Long-term Medium-term Short-term Pessimistic Halfway Optimistic

(2000-15) (2007-15) (2010-15) (25% online) (50% online) (75% online)
Energy Security

Double capacity of cross-border interconnections 11,842MW 11,619MW 11,076MW na na na

Double the use of natural gas in Africa (bcm)* 164 146 143 na na na

Double African gas exports to Europe (bcm)* 42 30 21 na na na

Renewable Energy

10,000MW Hydro 37,378MW 38,319MW 37,358MW 41,969MW 48,633MW 55.297MW

5,000MW Wind 4,118MW 4,669MW 5,144MW 4,934MW 6,616MW 8,299MW

500MW Solar n/a n/a 2,989MW 3,254MW 4,606MW 5,958MW

Tripling of other renewables (geothermal, biomass) n/a n/a 2,054MW 1,995MW 2,487MW 2,978MW

Energy Efficiency

Network losses % 2000-2012 – 12.6, 2010-2012 – 12.3 na na na

Energy intensity (MJ/US$2005 PPP ) 2000-2012 – 5.2, 2010-2012 – 4.8 na na na

Energy Access

Electricity Access (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 649m, 2010-2012 – 743m na na na

Cooking (for an additional 100 million) 2000-2012 – 420m, 2010-2012 – 426m na na na

* Trend figures are to 2014

AEEP | 13
Baseline Monitoring
Policy Environment
PIDA will progress with strong support
The Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa
(PIDA) and its Priority Action Programme (PAP) are central
to efforts to upgrade energy and other services across the
continent by developing major projects at a regional level.
PIDA has an impressive roster of schemes, which are
shown in the map on page 20. It is supported by the
African Union Commission (AUC), African Development
Bank (AfDB) and the New Partnership for Africa’s
Development (NEPAD), whose NEPAD Planning and
Coordinating Agency is PIDA’s implementing agency.
The European Union has promoted support for PIDA as an
important element in its cooperation policy, and with new
urgency since the April 2014 Africa-EU Summit in Brussels.
This is reflected in financial and technical support for
projects, and coordinated through bodies like the Africa-EU
Reference Group on Infrastructure. European institutions
are participating in initiatives such as the PIDA Project
Technical Assistance Facility, which is supporting early
stage project preparation for these complex schemes.
PIDA has identified a group of energy sector projects
which could have the greatest transformative potential in
the period to 2040: the PAP. A subset of priority
programmes will expand existing capacity to meet
Coordinating multiple African Energy initiatives
As energy has risen ever higher up the global agenda,
there has been a proliferation of institutions, programmes
and initiatives entering the African arena. Collaboration
between organisations is now common, but even more
often actors operate in isolation, duplicating effort and
confusing issues. Harnessing momentum behind a focused
set of global strategies and priorities seems essential to
maximise impact and avoid contradictory goals;this
requires a clear picture of the range of institutions, funds,
programmes and initiatives jostling for space in the sector.
The AEEP has been involved in compiling the report
Mapping of Energy Initiatives and Programmes in Africa,
since May 2015. The report surveyed 58 initiatives and
programmes. Information on 51 of these was either
validated or supplied by the institutions behind them.
Renewable energy was seen as a priority, with 98% of
initiatives covering it. Some 52% covered energy efficiency,
41% non-renewable generation and 36% heating and
cooling, while only 34% were involved in clean cooking.
Some 74% of electricity sector initiatives included grid
14 | AEEP
forecasts of growing trade through to 2020. The
programme’s primary objective is to reduce energy costs
and increase access.
PIDA gives project development a strongly regional focus.
This point was emphasised by NEPAD executive secretary
Ibrahim Assane Mayaki at the First PIDA Week, organised
by (NEPAD) in November 2015. “We must recognise that
policy-making is increasingly moving from a national to a
regional level,” Mayaki said.
The scale and complexity of PIDA’s ‘transformational’
projects – led by the biggest project of all, to develop the
potential 50GW Inga Falls hydropower resource in
Democratic Republic of Congo for the benefit of all Africa –
means progress has been slow in many cases. No PIDA
project has come online in the period covered by this
update report. All four energy projects included in the
recent PIDA Financial Structuring Plan have been discussed
for years: the Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya power transmission
line, the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, Batoka Gorge and
Inga III hydropower. But progress on projects like Ruzizi III
and the CLSG transmission line (see Energy Security)
suggests several more PIDA schemes will help to light up
Africa in the period through to 2020.
generation, 57% mini-grids and 50% stand-alone off-grid.
The AEEP mapping exercise found Central Africa received
less attention than other regions, and relatively few
focused on African sub-regions. A high level of private
sector participation was identified, but limited interaction
with civil society. It sees scope for stronger engagement
with African non-governmental organisations.
As this Status Report Update also concludes, Mapping of
Energy Initiatives identifies significant potential for
increased support for clean cooking, and noted that while
off-grid and mini-grid projects are receiving more
attention, this interest comes from a low base. Further
analysis is needed to develop tailored offerings, which
include support for entrepreneurs and start-ups. The
report concluded that skill development tended to be
under-represented in technical assistance programmes.
Knowledge transfer is a priority for many African
governments and an essential component of building
capacity at institutions and utilities; more skill
development programmes might work.
Energy Access
1,500
Millions
1,324
1,250
Africa’s 1,086
1,000 population
806
750 743
Access to
516 AEEP 2020 target: 558
500 electricity
AEEP 2020 target: 436
314 354
426
250
257 Access to non-solid
cooking fuels projections
0
2000 10 12 20
African governments and the European Union recognise
that access to sustainable energy is the basis of every
modern economy, without which it is impossible to raise
living standards or drive inclusive economic growth. As
well as increasing productivity and the possibilities for
entrepreneurship, access to electricity creates safer, well-lit
streets, saves time in the home and allows food to be
stored for longer. Electricity provides the foundation for
modern healthcare, the media and digital world. In Africa,
as in so many emerging economies, access to clean
cooking fuels is integral to improving living standards.
Reliance on solid fuel for cooking, such as charcoal, has
well-documented adverse effects on health, together with
often unsustainable and damaging production methods.
Securing access to secure, affordable, clean and
sustainable energy services is one of three main areas for
action under the Agenda for Change driving the EU’s
energy development policy. The African Union and EU see
that providing support for the United Nations’ Sustainable
Energy for All (SE4All) initiative – which aims to pull 1bn
out of energy poverty by 2030, some 500m of them in Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA) – is an important means of
coordinating activity in this critical area.
African governments, the EU and other international
actors are firmly focused on achieving a radical overhaul of
this situation. Goal 7 of the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), unveiled by the UN in September 2015 as a
baseline for harmonising global action to overcome
poverty, provides a commitment to “ensure access to
affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” –
underpinning SE4All’s promise of universal access by 2030.
However, data compiled for SE4All and research by the
AEEP and other agencies suggest that universal energy
access remains an elusive goal. While many countries have
made a concerted effort to improve levels of rural
electrification and other forms of access, the impacts of
insufficient resources and growing populations are still
reflected in disappointing access indicators.
Further, while statistics – and basic observation – show
that much of SSA is confronted with major shortfalls of
access to electricity and clean cooking fuels, there is much
to do before sufficiently accurate data is available to help
improve the situation. Within the SE4All framework, the
Global Tracking Framework (GTF) has been established to
counter this shortfall, with a Steering Group led jointly by
the WBG’s Energy Sector Management Assistance
Programme (ESMAP) and the International Energy Agency
(IEA).
much remains to be done to compile accurate statistics
until the GTF datasets are ready to provide a definitive
picture of access in SSA. With some reason, critics argue
that the statistics as currently available may even serve to
obscure the challenges, rather than enlighten strategies to
overcome them. Indeed, as the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report
observed, debate continues over the definition of access.
These issues are discussed by the AEEP’s Energy Access
Work Stream. NGO Practical Action (whose Senior Policy
Advisor Lucy Stevens is AEEP Focal Point for Civil Society in
Europe), has argued that new ways of defining and
measuring energy access are crucial if the SDG target is to
result in poverty reduction and development benefits. To
achieve this means going beyond the conventional binary
definitions of energy access such as household electricity
connections and cooking with non-solid or solid fuels.
The GTF is adopting an innovative, ‘multi-tier’ approach to
defining access, able to measure progress in achieving
good-quality, affordable, safe and reliable energy services.
While the statistics presented below may sometimes only
represent a ‘best guess’ as to the current situation, it
makes sense to work with the GTF data accumulated so far
during the interim period covered by this Status Report
Update. Given the paucity of other available data – and
the GTF’s potential for providing a more rigorous baseline
in the period to 2030 – the SE4All data set seems the most
appropriate for use in this report, in the understanding
that this source will produce a more refined appreciation
of SSA’s multiple problems of access in coming years.
AEEP | 15
BaselineAccess
Energy Monitoring

Improving market economics to create more consumers

Providing access to modern and
sustainable energy services requires
building new markets and overhauling
old ones. At its most basic, the electricity
sector has only two main sources of
revenue: income from consumers and
subsidies, which are usually provided by
the state. For decades, a majority of
African governments have held tariffs
well below costs, seeing this as the only
way to keep the cost of electricity
affordable for very poor consumers. Such
calculations are often driven by political
expediency, rather than by economic
logic – resulting in under-investment and
a lack of incentives to invest. In
recognition of this stark reality, policy-
makers have made the introduction of
cost-reflective tariffs (CRTs) a focus for
reforms.
Across the continent there have been
concerted efforts to move tariffs towards
the system cost of providing electricity
by establishing economic and quasi-
economic regulators that have a degree
of independence from governments. The
EU has created several instruments, to
assist in fine-tuning partner countries’
energy policies and regulatory
frameworks to stimulate investment,
including EUEI PDF and the Technical
Assistance Facility (TAF).
Real progress has been made, despite
political pressures, but there is more to
do. Southern African Development
Community (SADC) member countries in
2004 committed to achieving CRTs by
2013, but are not yet there. Electricity
supply markets have yet to show they
can achieve the commercial take-off that
mobile telecommunications have
achieved with such great impact across
the continent.

Progress in electrification since 2010

Data on access to modern and sustainable energy remain
weak on a number of levels. In the interim, statistics
produced by the Global Tracking Framework are
predominantly estimates based on a limited set of data
points, and the impact of changes in policy and the
implementation of large projects will not show up on a
statistical model until new data points are gathered – the
aim of intense national-level work that is now under way.
Efforts to improve the capacity of national statistical
authorities are supported by the AEEP and other
stakeholders. Without these authorities, reliably tracking
the situation on the ground will not be possible.
sustainable energy has been increasing, and improved
governance and management of the electricity sector has
facilitated project development. The data show that, in
2012 (the most recent year for which data is available),
516m Africans had access to electricity – leaving 570m
without.
The average compound annual growth rate for electricity
access has risen from 3.9% in the 2000-10 period to 6.1%
between 2010 and 2012. In terms of new connections, this
represents an increase from an average of 14.4m people
gaining access to electricity each year between 2000 and
2010, to an average of 28.9m per year in 2010-12.

The SE4All statistics published to date show an If this annual increase can be sustained , then Africa is
improvement in electricity access. This as investment in likely to achieve the AEEP’s target of 50% access by 2020.

Access to Access to Access to

electricity electricity non-solid
(urban) (rural) cooking
fuels
(urban)

Percent of population
with access to electricity/
non-solid cooking fuels, 2012
70.0 – 100%
50.0 – 69.9%
30.0 – 49.9%
15.0 – 29.9%
Less than 15%

16 | AEEP
 Energy Access

Access to electricity and non-solid fuels

% Percent of population with access
to electricity, 2012
70.0 – 100%
50.0 – 69.9%
30.0 – 49.9%
T UNISIA
100% 100% 15.0 – 29.9%
Less than 15%
MOROCCO
100% 97.1%
% Percent of population with access
ALGERIA to non-solid cooking fuels, 2012
100% 100%
LIBYA
100% 100% EGYPT Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework
100% 100%
Western North Africa
Sahara
(under UN L.
mandate) Nasser
CAPE
VERDE

e
Ni l
70.6% M A U RI T A NI A
68.7% 21.8% 42.0%
MALI NIGER
25.6% 2.0% SUDAN ERITREA
SENEGAL 14.4% 3.2% CHAD 32.6% 27.9%
56.5% 39.3% West Africa 6.4% 4.8%
36.1% 36.1%
Ni

THE GAMBIA
White N ile
ge

L. Chad DJIBOUTI
r

34.5% 5.0% BURKINA FASO

13.1% 5.3% L.Tana 53.3% 84.3%

B lu
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA Ni
NIGERIA
e
60.6% 2.0% le
Volta
Black

26.2% 2.2% BENIN

Ch

55.6% 24.8%
ar

CÔTE GHANA 38.4% ETHIOPIA

i

SIERRA LEONE D’IVOIRE 64.1% 6.2% ue

SOUTH
en 26.6% 2.2%
14.2% 2.0% 55.8% B CENTRAL SUDAN o
LIBERIA 19.1%
16.8% TOGO
CAMER O O N
AFRICAN REPUBLIC
10.8% 3.2%
5.1% 2.1% Om East SO MALIA
31.5%
9.8% 2.0%
4.8%
53.7% 21.9%
a
Africa 32.7% 4.6%
ag U Ž lŽ
EQUATORIAL GUINEA San L.Turkana
66.0% 55.1% Central UGANDA
L. Albert 18.2% K EN YA
Juba

SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Africa 2.6% 23.0% 16.2%

60.5% 28.8% G ABO N L. Edward SEYCHELLES
Tana
go

89.3% 78.7% D EMO CR AT IC RWANDA L. Victoria 100%

Co n

REPUBLIC OF CONGO R EP UBLIC O F L.Kivu 18.0% 2.0% 99.8%

(BRAZZAVILLE) CO N G O BURUNDI
41.6% 24.8% 16.4% 5.0% 6.5% 2.0%
Cabinda L. Tanganyika Pemba I.
Zanzibar I.
Lu alab a

(Ang.) T AN ZAN IA
15.3% 4.2%
Kasa•

Mafia I.
Gt. Ruaha
Cu a L. Mweru
nz a COMOROS
ANGOLA 69.3% 25.5%
MALAWI
37.0% 44.3% 9.8% L.Malawi
(L.Nyasa)
3.1%
ZAMBIA Mayotte
(Fr.)
Cunene

22.1% 17.3%
Access to
Cu

Kafue zi
ba

non-solid be MAURITIUS
ngo

m
MO ZAMBIQ UE 100%
Za

cooking 20.2% 3.8% 99.3%

ZIMBABW E MAD AG ASCAR
fuels 40.5% 29.6%
N AMIBIA 15.4% 2.0%
(rural)
47.3% 45.0%
BO T SW AN A Limpopo Réunion
53.2% 62.5% (Fr.)

Southern
Africa
SWAZILAND
al 42.0% 38.4%
O ra
n ge
Va

SOUTH LESOTHO
20.6% 38.0%
AFRICA
85.4% 86.7%

AEEP | 17
Energy Access
Questions about clean cooking
The GTF data for access to non-solid cooking fuels point to
an apparent slowing of momentum behind the clean
cooking fuel movement. These statistics have barely
improved since the 2010 baseline was established, with
increases in access struggling to keep pace with
population growth. Indeed, the data show declines in
some cases.
Only 32.5% of Africans had access to non-solid cooking
fuel in 2012, the same proportion as in 2010 and barely up
from 31.8% in 2000 and 27.7% in 1990. The compound
annual growth rate has actually declined since 2010, when
it averaged 2.6% compared with an average of 2.7% in the
2000-10 period.
However, this represented an increase in terms of absolute
numbers: on average 18m Africans gained access to non-
solid fuel for cooking between 2010 and 2012, compared
to an annual average of 8m in 2000-10. Were the same
number of people to gain access to non-solid cooking fuels
every year to 2020 – as the data show happened between
2010 and 2012 – then only 32.1% of Africans would have
access by the end of the current AEEP target period,
leaving nearly 900m people without.
The implications go beyond the negative effects of solid
cooking fuel use. There appears to be a substantial gap
between the use of clean cooking fuels and access to
electricity, implying that many households with access to
power continue to use ‘dirty fuels’ for cooking. This
suggests that issues around the reliability and
affordability of electricity, the cost of household
appliances, and education about the risks of using solid
cooking fuel continue to be problematic.
18 | AEEP
Rural-urban divide
Stark differences persist between levels of rural and urban
access. In 2012, 26.3% of people in rural areas had access
to electricity in the average African country, according to
SE4All/GTF. This had risen from 23.8% in 2010, 18.6% in
2000 and 14.6% in 1990. Excluding North Africa and South
Africa, the 2012 figure is just 17.8%. In contrast, 69.9% of
the urban population in the average African country had
access to electricity in 2012, up from 63.7% in 2010, 59.5%
in 2000 and 58% in 1990.
Median figures show an even more substantial
differential. While the median for the urban population is
very similar to the near 70% mean shown above, the
median for the rural population shows that more than half
of the countries in Africa had access rates of less than
13.7% in 2012 and 9.8% in 2010. The standard deviation
shows that while the gap between countries has been
decreasing for urban electrification (going from 30% in
2000 to 25% in 2012), the reverse is true for rural
electrification (28% to 30%). This suggests that the rural
population is being left behind in some countries.
Although SE4All data is only available for 2010 and 2012,
the trends are similar for access to non-solid fuel for
cooking. Access among the urban population of the
average African country was 45.9% in 2012, with a median
of 37.2%. In 2010, the mean was 45.8%, with a median of
36.9%. In rural areas the 2012 average was 21%, but the
median was only 4%, compared with 20.6% and 3.7% in
2010.
The figures show that rural populations are being
bypassed by efforts to improve access to sustainable
energy. They suggest that the dynamics of improving
energy access to 2020 and beyond will be complicated by
demographic and cost trends. These estimates suggest
that energy access initiatives have mostly targeted the
‘low-hanging fruit’ in urban areas. As electrification in
these areas moves towards 100%, the rate of increase
could begin to fall off as focus shifts towards more costly
periurban and rural energy access.
This could potentially slow progress towards meeting
continental targets. However, this trend will be mitigated,
to some extent, by the expected large relative increase in
the size of the urban population to 2020, compared with
the rural population. Further analysis of these dynamics
would be beneficial for identifying initiatives which will
make the maximum impact towards meeting continental
targets while also revealing constituencies that could be
left behind.
 Energy Access

Access to electricity Access to non-solid cooking fuel

by region by region
North Africa Population North Africa Population

200 174 2000: 200 174 2000:

m 168 m 168
144 173 92.3% 144 172
95.4%
150 166 150 166
120 120
132 136
100 100 103
103 Population with access Population with access
50 2012: 50 2012:
100% 99.4%
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
West Africa West Africa
350 325 350 325
m 308 m 308
300 300
2000: 2000:
250 235 36.3% 250 235 18.7%
200 180 200 180
151
150 126 150
2012: 2012:
100 85 46.5% 100 18.7%
57 58 61
50 50 44
28

0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
Central Africa Central Africa
200 2000: 200 2000:
m 23.8% m 14.7%
150 150
109 116 109 116
100 81 100 81
60 60
38 45
50 2012: 50 22 25 2012:
13 19 12
38.7% 3 21.5%
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
East Africa East Africa
350 329 350 329
m 311 m 311
300 300
2000: 2000:
250 234 14.3% 250 234 8.0%
200 176 200 176

150 150
2012: 2012:
100 74 23.2% 100 8.7%
63
50 33 50 26 28
20 10 18
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
Southern Africa Southern Africa
200 2000: 200 2000:
m 154 37.1% m 154 38.4%
147 147
150 150
119 119
95 95
100 73 100
65 64 68
44 46
50 33 2012: 50 28 2012:
47.1% 44.0%
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2012 1990 2000 2010 2012
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework

AEEP | 19
Energy Access
A new generation of entrepreneurs goes off-grid
Momentum is building quickly behind efforts to give
access to clean, sustainable energy to the hundreds of
millions of Africans who live beyond established grids –
and who are unlikely to be integrated into national
transmission infrastructure for the foreseeable future.
European and other governments are providing ever larger
amounts of financing and technical assistance to support
off-grid schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). An
increasing number of African governments are integrating
off-grid solutions into their development plans. As SE4All
Chief Executive Rachel Kyte has observed: “Decentralised
renewable energy will be essential if we are to close the
energy access gap”. Kyte argues that “with advances in
technology and competitive prices, we now need to
support leaders to introduce policy reforms and unlock the
finance to bring power to the people”.
Off-grid projects are usually small-scale, when compared
to ‘conventional’ projects that feed national grids. Where
possible, they are included in the AEEP Power Projects
Database, but their cumulative impact, to date, is very
limited when it comes to the overall figures. However,
more projects are appearing to excite businesses along the
whole value chain – as reflected in the growing
membership of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE),
the decentralised clean energy industry association, which
is an AEEP Focal Point.
Start-up businesses such as Jumeme Rural Power Supply
20 | AEEP
Ltd, which is running an independent solar PV hybrid mini-
grid project in rural Tanzania, are attracting considerable
interest. Business models may have to evolve to attract the
larger sums of private capital that will make decentralized
power projects a significantly bigger contributor to
overcoming energy poverty in SSA.
Many of the best-known projects, such as Renewable
Energy Solutions for the Lake Victoria Ecosystem (Resolve)
in Kenya and Jumeme, have business models underpinned
by grant finance from foundations and other NGO sources.
But an increasing number of commercial operators are
showing interest in developing decentralised projects for
isolated communities, as well as to serve wealthier clients
such as industrial farms or resources industries. Private
equity and other investors are asking whether small-scale
projects can be ‘bundled up’ to draw institutional investors
into decentralised clean energy.
Decentralised, off-grid solutions are receiving strong
support from European governments and institutions.
Facilities include Energising Development (EnDev), a multi-
donor partnership that promotes sustainable access to
modern energy services, and the EU’s Electrification
Finance Initiative (ElectriFI). Aimed largely at SSA, ElectriFi
opened for business with initial funding of €270m from
the European Commission, in the expectation that
European development finance institutions will leverage
significantly more money as the programme rolls out.
Energy Security
The AEEP’s targets are based on the assumption that a
united Europe is well-placed to facilitate the promotion of
cross-border energy in and with Africa. This reinforces the
energy security of both Africa and Europe. International
co-operation is essential to safeguard energy supplies.
Vast distances between sources of generation and their
feedstocks and areas of electricity demand have led to an
increase in the number of regional interconnections in
development; these projects promise improved economies
of scale, cheaper electricity and energy supply to those
countries with limited natural resources.
Integration is strongly encouraged by the Programme for
Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). However, the
slow pace of implementation for PIDA projects and other
cross-border schemes have slowed the trend of increases
to electricity transfer , which was notable in the AEEP’s
2014 Status Report. The database shows no new operating
lines completed since 2011, but recent progress on
regional transmission projects suggests that, with
improved project delivery, the AEEP target of doubling
capacity by 2020 could be met.
Among other energy security targets, data collected by the
AEEP Monitoring Tool shows that gas consumption in
Africa plateaued in 2012-14, following an almost two-fold
increase in the decade before. This was due to political and
economic challenges that have also had an impact on
natural gas exports to Europe, which fell to 46bcm in
2014, having peaked at 84.9bcm in 2006.
Installed capacity by technology, 2010
Total capacity: 153,017MW
Other thermal
17,578MW
Nuclear 11.5%
Re
1,830MW ne
1.2% w Hydroelectricity 31,430MW 20.5%
a
bl
es
Pumped storage 1,580MW 1.0%
Coal
Wind 1,120MW 0.7%
40,046MW
Solar 102MW 0.1%
26.2%
Geothermal 219MW 0.1%
Gas
Other renewable
58,349MW 763MW 0.5%
38.1%
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
The AEEP’s focus on gas and renewables – which has
gathered pace since the 2010 baseline was established –
allows a practical option for the diversification of energy
sectors This reduces exposure to fluctuating oil prices and
dependence on high carbon-content fossil fuels, such as
coal, diesel and heavy fuel oil; in some cases it can lower
the cost of generation. Diversification helps to combat an
over-reliance on a single energy source. Many African
countries with an over-dependence on hydroelectricity
suffer severe power shortages during times of drought,
which are becoming ever more severe as regions of East
and West Africa struggle with desertification. These
pressures may lead hard-pressed governments to procure
costly – and often polluting – liquid fuel-fed rental power.
As the charts below show, based on data from the AEEP
Power Project Database, changes can be observed since
2010, as both hydroelectricity and coal account for lower
percentages of the energy mix in 2015, while gas-fired
capacity has increased to over 40% of the total, and wind
and solar have increased almost three-fold. However,
natural gas remains vastly under-utilised as a source of
fuel in most African economies.
Greater regional integration is under way – with notable
progress in the West Africa Power Pool, Southern Africa
Power Pool and East African regions – which will help
countries to access a wider range of sources of generation.
This will help them to diversify their energy mix and trade
electricity to balance system costs, which is crucial to
reinforcing the supply of sustainable, affordable power.
Installed capacity by technology, 2015
Total capacity: 179,611MW
Other thermal
20,314MW
Nuclear 11.3%
Re
1,830MW ne
1.0% w Hydroelectricity 33,604MW 18.7%
a
bl
Pumped storage 1,580MW 0.9%
es
Coal
Wind 3,132MW 1.7%
42,998MW
23.9% Solar 1,546MW 0.9%
Geothermal 554MW 0.3%
Gas Other renewable
73,104MW 950MW 0.5%
40.7%
Source: AEEP Power Project Database
AEEP | 21
Energy Security

Power pools, power lines and PIDA projects

TUNISIA
North African Power
Transmission Corridor
MOROC C O

ALGERIA
LIBYA
EGYPT
Western
Sahara
(under UN
mandate)
Nigeria-Algeria
(NIGAL) gas pipeline
CAPE
VERDE M AURIT ANIA

MALI
NIGER SUDAN
ERITREA
SENEGAL GOURBASSI CHAD
HEP
THE GAMBIA
Sambangalou HEP BURKINA
FASO Grand Ethiopian DJIBOUTI
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA FOMI
HEP Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Kaléta HEP BUMBUNA 3 BENIN NIGERIA
HEP
CÔTE GHANA ETHIOPIA
SIERRA LEONE SOUTH
D’IVOIRE LOM CENTRAL

IA
PANGAR SUD AN GILGEL GIBE III HEP
HEP
AFRICAN REPUBLIC GILGEL GIBE IV HEP

AL
LIBERIA SOUBRÉ
HEP TOGO

M
West African Power CAMEROON

SO
Transmission Corridor
EQUATORIAL GUINEA MEMVÉ’ÉLÉ
HEP Uganda-Kenya Petroleum UGANDA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Products Pipeline KENYA
A VI N G O

D EMOCR ATIC
)
LLE

GABON R EPUBLIC OF
AZZ C O

CONGO RWANDA
(BR . O F

Ruzizi III HEP Rusomo Falls HEP

REP

SEYCHELLES
RUZIZI IV HEP BURUNDI
OPTIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF INGA
Cabinda (Ang.) TANZANIA–KENYA GAS PIPELINE
Inga III HEP TANZANIA
STIEGLER’S GORGE HEP

North-South Power
Transmission Corridor
ANGOLA COMOROS
Central African MALAWI
Interconnection Mayotte
ZAMBIA CAHORA BASSA (Fr.)
NORTE HEP
Batoka
Gorge HEP Mphanda Nkuwa HEP
Power pools: MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR
Maghreb Electricity Committee (Comelec) MAURITIUS
West African Power Pool (WAPP) NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA Réunion
(Fr.)
Central African Power Pool (CAPP)
Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) MOZAMBIQUE–
SOUTH AFRICA OIL PIPELINE
Former member of EAPP (Egypt: withdrew in Feb 2016) SWAZILAND
Potential members of EAPP (Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan)
Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) LESOTHO
Unaffiliated country SOUTH Lesotho Highlands HEP
AFRICA
Angola is a member of CAPP and SAPP
Power line
Burundi is a member of CAPP and EAPP
Energy projects in PIDA-PAP 2020 (Programme for Democratic Republic of Congo is a
Infrastructure Development in Africa Priority Action Plan) member of CAPP, EAPP and SAPP
Energy projects in PIDA 2040 Libya is a member of Comelec and EAPP
Rwanda is a member of EAPP and a
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; African Energy Atlas; applicant member of CAPP
Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Tanzania is a member of EAPP and SAPP

22 | AEEP

Doubling cross-border interconnections
14
GW
11.8 (based on 2000–15 trend)
12
Total transfer
10 capacity in
11.6 (based on 2007–15 trend)
Africa 9.33
8 11.1 (based on 2010–15 trend)
6 5.15
forecast
4 Source: AEEP Power
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 15 20 Project Database
The electrification of sprawling urban and isolated rural
communities is a major challenge for a continent of such
diverse countries, large expanses of territory and limited
resources. The high costs of building and operating an
electricity grid is reflected in low electrification rates and
the poor condition of much existing infrastructure. The
technical challenges of delivering electricity from sources
of generation to consumer areas, often across large
distances, has proved a barrier to investment in large
conventional forms of energy production. The heavy
investment required to build modern electricity grids may
result in over-dependence on the cheapest forms of
production – such as polluting diesel power – which
further increases energy insecurity.
The interconnection of national grids across the continent
is a major component in the Programme for Infrastructure
Development in Africa (PIDA) and other international
initiatives because it promotes economies of scale and
comprises an important step towards energy security. The
construction of cross-border transmission lines allows the
import and export of electricity generated by various
sources, providing a means of balancing system costs
while also allowing African countries to take advantage of
cheap generation in neighbouring countries.
The development of large-scale projects such as the Ruzizi
III hydropower project shared by Burundi, Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, or Ethiopia’s Grand
Renaissance Dam, which will generate 6GW – not to
mention the Grand Inga dam in DRC which could
eventually produce 50GW – make more sense when they
can supply multiple markets.
However, achieving such interconnections is a complex
process in regions which lack harmonised legislation,
compatible grids and integrated currencies or economies.
This is not helped by the instability of many national grids
and shortages of installed generation capacity. These
bottleneck have stalled several of the continent’s many
planned projects. However, the future looks brighter as
Energy Security
plans are under way to reinforce existing grids and build a
number of high-voltage transmission backbones across
the continent.
Significant progress expected
In 2014 the AEEP Status Report observed that estimating
the transfer capacities of interconnections was an
imprecise science, and this remains the case. However,
given that word of caution, the AEEP Power Project
Database shows that approximate maximum transfer
capacity in Africa almost doubled between 2005 and 2011
from 5.48GW to 9.33GW. The updated database shows
that no new operating lines have been built since 2011.
But statistics alone do not tell the whole story; while
projects could have moved more quickly, there has been
progress on a number of major regional schemes. A
number of significant transmission projects are in
development or under construction across the continent –
and these are expected to create a spike in interconnection
capacity over the short- to medium-term.
Interconnections with a combined capacity of over 4.5GW
are expected to be completed in East Africa in the coming
years, including a 220kV Rwanda-Uganda HV line. The
transmission lines between Kagitumba, Mirama and
Shango were completed in October 2015, but delays in
building the Birembo and Shando substations means the
interconnection is not expected to be operational until
October 2016.
A 2GW capacity 500kV transmission line connecting
Ethiopia to Kenya, first conceived in 2006, is moving closer
to reality with construction expect to start during 2016.
Meanwhile, a 400kV transmission corridor linking Kenya,
Uganda and Rwanda – expanding existing
interconnections – is also in development; it is intended to
allow 500MW of electricity trade between the three
countries.
A number of projects in development will eventually see
the West Africa region fully interconnected. The 225kV
CLSG line, which will connect the grids of Côte d’Ivoire,
Liberia, Sierra Leone and Gambia, has been revived as a
West African Power Pool (WAPP) priority project. The
1,400km high-voltage line will cost an estimated €365m,
and will connect to the existing Côte d’Ivoire-Benin-Togo-
Nigeria interconnection. CLSG is expected to be completed
in 2017. Meanwhile finance is being raised to connect the
Senegal River Basin Development Organisation (OMVS)
network to the CLSG. The 225kV interconnection will
AEEP | 23
Energy Security

initially connect the

Selected interconnections in development in East and West Africa
electricity network of
Guinea to the southern Project Voltage Est. commissioning
backbone, after which it date
will be extended to
Gambia, Guinea-Bissau WAPP
and Senegal. This €700m
Côte d’Ivoire-Ghana 330kV 2019
project is expected to have
a maximum transfer Ghana-Togo-Benin 330kV 2019
capacity of 800MW and be
completed by 2019. Nigeria-Benin 330kV 2020

Other projects under way Ghana-Burkina Faso 225kV 2018

in West Africa seek to
Ghana-Burkina Faso-Mali 225kV 2020
connect Ghana’s grid to
Burkina Faso and Côte Guinea-Mali 225kV 2019
d’Ivoire, which is expected
Nigeria-Niger-Burkina Faso-Togo/Benin 330kV 2020
in 2018 and 2019
respectively. OMVG (Senegal-Gambia-Guinea-Guinea Bissau 225kV 2019
In North Africa, 400kV CLSG (Côte d’Ivoire-Liberia-Sierra Leone-Guinea) 225kV 2018
interconnections with a
total capacity of 4GW are EAPP
planned to link the grids of
Ethiopia-Kenya 500kV 2017
Algeria and Tunisia with
those of Italy and Spain. Kenya-Uganda-Rwanda 400kV 2016

The North Africa Power Kenya-Tanzania 400kV 2018

Transmission Corridor – a
PIDA-Priority Action Project Ethiopia-Rwanda 500kV 2017
– aims to add 4.5GW of HV Rwanda-Burundi 220kV 2022
transmission lines
connecting Egypt, Libya, Rwanda-Uganda 220kV 2016
Tunisia, Algeria and
Kenya-Tanzania 400kV 2016
Morocco.

African Power Interconnections

Line Voltage Number of

(kV) interconnections

<50 4

51-100 3

101-150 9

151-200 2

201-300 16

301-400* 16

>400 2

Source: AEEP Power Projects

Database

24 | AEEP
 Energy Security

Doubling the use of natural gas

250
oil company (IOC) development plans and the discovery in
bcm 2020 target: 215.6 2015 of the giant Zohr offshore gas field – where first
200
164.2 production is expected in 2017 – should result in Egypt
Consumption of
150 natural gas returning to significant growth in both production and
in Africa 120.1 consumption in the period to 2020.
100

50 58.4 Elsewhere in North Africa, Algerian consumption has risen

projection
0
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 20
Increasing domestic use of natural gas in Africa remains an
important target for the AEEP as a means of improving
energy security, raising living standards and helping to
mitigate the effects of climate change.
Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015
show that, despite a number of challenges, the historical
trend has been positive, with an almost two-fold increase
in consumption during the last decade. However,
consumption plateaued between 2012 and 2014, holding
at around 120bcm as a variety of political and
macroeconomic challenges had an impact on output.
A key factor in this has been falling production levels in
Africa’s largest consumer, Egypt, where consumption
declined by almost 9% in 2012-14. The fallout from the
2011 ‘Arab Spring’ had a substantial impact on the gas
sector, as investments dried up and existing fields began
to decline; Egypt turned from being an exporter to a net
importer of natural gas during this period. However, a
period of political stability, a resumption of international
sharply, from 26.4bcm in 2010 to 37.5bcm in 2014.
Morocco is also looking to increased demand for gas for
power generation and industrial use, which it intends to
meet with a project to import around 5bcm/yr of liquefied
natural gas (LNG) to the port at Jorf Lasfar, from where it
will be piped to five new combined cycle gas turbine
(CCGT) power stations and other infrastructure.
South African demand, which has stagnated at around
4bcm, is also expected to grow significantly. Pending a
major discovery offshore or the exploitation of non-
conventional reserves, South Africa has limited reserves,
but a push for new gas-fired generation is planned, in a
policy led by the government but based on private sector
investment. This could be supplied from LNG or,
potentially, from gas imported from neighbours notably
from Mozambique, which has also made a major offshore
natural gas find in the Rovuma Basin.
The likelihood that some of the major discoveries made in
recent years – in Mozambique, Tanzania and other
countries – coming on stream suggests an increase in
output that will allow the ambitious AEEP target of
215.6bcm of domestic consumption by 2020 to be met.

Consumption of natural gas in Africa, 2000Ð14 121.8 120.2 120.1

120 113.8 120
Rest of Africa 107.2
bcm Total consumption bcm
South Africa 100.9 99.6 34.2 31.6 30.5
100 96.1 100
Algeria 32.5
89.1
85.4 31.9
Egypt 81.1 31.0 26.5 4.0 3.8 4.1
80 74.8 29.9 3.9 80
69.6 25.4
27.5 3.4 3.9
63.8 25.3 3.7 31.0 33.4 37.5
58.4 22.7 3.5 27.8
60 3.5 60
21.8 27.2 26.3
17.6 2.1 3.1
24.3 25.4
17.4 1.0
1.0 23.7
1.2 23.2
1.2 21.4 22.0
40 40
20.2
20.5
19.8
49.6 52.6 51.4 48.0
40.8 42.5 45.1
20 36.5 38.4 20
26.5 29.7 31.7 31.6
24.5
20.0

0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

AEEP | 25
Energy Security

Natural gas infrastructure and trade routes

1 Arzew LNG:

ly TT /
EI
Ita A D
GL1-Z & GL2-Z operating

to O M ME
C S
Gassi Touil LNG:

RI N
EN TRA
GL3-Z operating GALSI
MEDGAZ to Italy EGYPT
2 Skikda LNG: to Spain
GL1-K & GL2-K operating Declining gas production has led to Egypt

LNG EXPORTS
ly AM
GPDF/GME 2 becoming an importer of LNG, but a recovery

ON HOLD
Ita RE
to Spain, Portugal El Haouaria is expected in the coming years following a
1

to NST
Skikda Tunis
Tahaddart resumption of developments and the giant

EE
Offtake at Tahaddart power plant
Arzew TUNISIA

GR
Beni Saf
GULF OF
30tcf Zohr discovery.
GABÈS ZOHR
FUTURE LNG NILE
Jorf Lasfar HASSI to Ashkelon, Israel
IMPORTS R’MEL BERKINE Mellitah Benghazi DELTA
MOROCCO BASIN ELNG SEGAS No exports from SEGAS since 2012,
Idku El Arish
Marsa Da
m iett a greatly reduced exports from ELNG
LIBYA Al-Brega
AGP to Jordan, Syria, Turkey
ALGERIA GHADAMES
WESTERN Ain Taba
BASIN Closed
ILLIZI SIRTE DESERT Sokhna FSRU
2011,
SAHARA BASIN BASIN Zeit LNG
FIELDS
upgrade EGYPT Bay
required IMPORTS
MAURITANIA Western UPPER EGYPT
GAS PIPELINE
Gas from the Sahara
(under UN
Banda gas field mandate) ABBREVIATIONS Aswan
is to be used for AGP: Arab Gas Pipeline
NIGERIA–ALGERIA
a domestic (NIGAL) PIPELINE ALNG: Angola LNG
power plant. EGLNG: Equatorial Guinea LNG SUDAN
M AURIT ANIA ELNG: Egyptian LNG
CAPE ELPS: Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System
VERDE BANDA FID: final investment decision
MALI
GREATER NIGER FLNG: floating LNG SUDAN
TORTUE FSRU: floating storage & regasification unit ERITREA
GALSI:
CHAD Gasdotto Algeria Sardegna Italia
SENEGAL GME: Gazoduc Maghreb Europe
THE GAMBIA GPDF: Gazoduc Pedro Duran Farrell
FUTURE LNG
BURKINA MZLNG: Mozambique LNG DJIBOUTI EXPORTS
FASO NLNG: Nigeria LNG Djibouti Ville
GUINEA-BISSAU GUINEA
GHANA BENIN NIGERIA SEGAS: Spanish-Egyptian Gas Company
TOGO WAGP: West African Gas Pipeline
SIERRA CÔTE SOMALIA
Co Lo a

LEONE D’IVOIRE
ETHIOPIA
to m
La u

3 Future FSRU at: Ajaokuta SOUTH

no é

CENTRAL
Ab

go

ELPS CALUB,
Té ze

LIBERIA SUD AN
oa

Jacqueville, Grand-Bassam
m

Abidjan AFRICAN REPUBLIC HILALA

d

(Côte d’Ivoire); FOXTROT, 3 G P 4 5 CAMEROON

Aboadze, Tema, Keta (Ghana); PANTHÈRE WA 6 TANZANIA
Cotonou (Benin) NIGER DELTA 7 A Chinese-built pipeline from
SA JUB AND
OF E
NK ILE

4 OK LNG at Olokola Free Trade Zone:

A

EQUAT.GUINEA Lolabé
Mtwara to Dar es Salaam is
L

UGANDA
N, , E

project on hold
TE DU

increasing availability of gas

A VI N G O

ST & P KENYA
KU

5 Brass LNG: Libreville

for domestic power
)
LLE

FID awaited GABON

AZZ C O

NLNG at Bonny: D EMOCR ATIC generation.

(BR . O F

RWANDA
six trains operating, awaiting LEOPARD R EPUBLIC OF FUTURE LNG
REP

FID on Train 7, Train 8 planned CONGO BURUNDI Mombasa SEYCHELLES

SE LNG at Qua Iboe: M’BOUNDI
IMPORTS
future export terminal LITCHENDJILI
OFFSHORE CABINDA Soyo TANZANIA FUTURE LNG
6 EGLNG at Punta Europa: LOWER ALNG Dar es Salaam EXPORTS
operating; future EGLNG2 LNG FLNG
CONGO
EXPORTS BASIN CHEWA, PWEZA
7 Future export terminal at SONGO SONGO
Lolabé, FLNG at Kribi LONTRA
(Cameroon) WEST AFRICA Mtwara OFFSHORE RUVUMA/
Levels of gas flowing through the West Africa Palma ROVUMA BASIN
Gas Pipeline have failed to meet expectations. ANGOLA MALAWI MZLNG COMOROS
FUTURE LNG
C™te dÕIvoire and Ghana are looking to develop FLNG Mayotte EXPORTS
domestic gas options and turn to LNG import ZAMBIA (Fr.)
schemes for power generation.
E
U
Q

NAMIBIA
BI

The Kudu gas-to-power ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR

AM

Major gas fields and recent MAURITIUS

project is making slow PANDE
significant discoveries
MOZ

progress following the NAMIBIA TEMANE

BOTSWANA Réunion
Gas pipeline: Windhoek government (Fr.)
Commissioned declaring it a priority project
Pipeline in late 2012. A much delayed
final investment decision is Maputo
now expected in early 2016, Secunda
SWAZILAND EAST AFRICA
but a new upstream partner Gas reserves are mounting up
LNG (liquefied Oranjemund
is still needed. KUDU offshore following a string of major
natural gas) project: Richards Bay
Commissioned discoveries. MozambiqueÕs
SOUTH Durban
IBHUBESI estimated 100tcf of reserves along
Pipeline LESOTHO
AFRICA with TanzaniaÕs 57tcf is expected to
Saldanha Bay supply significant exports to Asia as
LNG liquefaction plant and export terminal
FUTURE LNG Mossel Bay well as domestic power.
LNG regasification plant and import terminal IMPORTS Cape FSRU
Town BREDASDORP
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database; African Energy Atlas

26 | AEEP
 Energy Security

Exporting gas from Africa to Europe

200
bcm
150 2020 target: 158.0
African
gas exports
100 to Europe
61.5
46.0 41.9
50
projection
0
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 20

Supported by world-scale natural gas reserves, North
Africa has established itself as a major exporter of gas to
Europe, through liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes and
four gas pipelines connecting Libya and Tunisia to Italy via
Greenstream and Transmed respectively, and Algeria and
Morocco to Spain and Portugal through Medgaz and
GPDF/GME (as shown in the map on page 26). Nigeria has
also emerged as a significant exporter through the six-
train Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) company.
African exports to Europe reached a peak in 2006 at
84.9bcm, but have since been on the decline. According to
the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, total
exports fell to just 46bcm in 2014. LNG exports to Europe
have been in gradual decline since 2006, reaching a low of
20.5bcm in 2014, aggravated by the collapse in Egyptian
LNG exports from 2011. Pipeline exports also slumped
during the period, to just 25.5bcm in 2014, with conflict in
Libya halting exports through Greenstream.
Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa to other continents are
making slow progress. Angola’s new LNG export terminal
has never reached its expected production levels; it shut
down due to technical failure in 2014, only a year after its
first exports to Brazil, but was expected to reopen as this
Status Report Update went to press. Angola, Nigeria and
other exporters into the Atlantic Basin and other gas
markets have been affected by price volatility and intense
competition, notably from the production of gas from
shales in North America.
International companies are looking hard at major
discoveries and export potential in Tanzania and
Mozambique. It is calculated that Mozambique has
sufficient reserves to become the world’s largest supplier
of LNG after Australia and Qatar, with a start to
production expected in the early 2020s. The negative
implications of prevailing low oil prices, which still feed
into gas pricing, may slow projects, but the growth in spot
sales of LNG suggests new markets will emerge.

African gas exports to Europe, 2000Ð14

90 90
84.9 Total exports
bcm bcm
77.5 78.9 78.7 78.9
80 80
72.7
66.3
70 64.5 LNG 70
63.2 61.7
61.5
57.5 58.4 41.6
60 35.2 37.0 33.1 60
33.5 50.8
50 30.2 31.2 22.4 50
27.2 46.0
26.4 32.4
29.0
40 20.8 40
no breakdown available

20.5
30 By pipeline 30

42.3 43.3 41.9 45.6

20 39.2 39.3 20
34.3 34.3 35.1 30.0
31.0 29.4 30.8
25.5
10 10

0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

AEEP | 27
Baseline Monitoring

Renewable Energy
Installed capacity in 2010 and 2015, 60 75% scenario: 55.30
GW 50% scenario: 48.63
and AEEP 2020 targets
40 AEEP target: 43.01
Linear trend: 37.36
45 25% scenario: 41.97
43.01
Hydroelectric 20
GW power
0
40 2010 2015 2020

8 75% scenario: 8.30

35 35.18 GW 50% scenario: 6.62
33.01 6 AEEP target: 6.12
Linear trend: 5.14
4 25% scenario: 4.93
30
2
0
25 2010 2015 2020

3 75% scenario: 2.98

GW AEEP target: 2.94
20 50% scenario: 2.49
2 Linear trend: 2.05
25% scenario: 2.00
15 1

0
2010 2015 2020
10
6 75% scenario: 5.96
6.12 Wind GW
5 50% scenario: 4.61
3.13 Other 4
1.12 2.94 25% scenario: 3.25
0.98
1.55 renewables Linear trend: 2.99
1.50 0.60 Solar 2
0 0.10
2010 2015 2020 AEEP target: 0.60
0
targets 2010 2015 2020
Source: AEEP Power Project Database

Renewable energy technologies are critical to the
development of modern, clean and sustainable electricity
supply industries. Their technical development and
geographical spread is central to efforts to reduce global
greenhouse gas emissions, as enshrined in the UN
Conference on Climate Change (COP21) Paris Agreement.
This commitment is being followed up within a framework
of high level meetings, including the COP22 talks, to be
held in Marrakech, Morocco on 7-18 November 2016.
its development assistance portfolio for climate change-
related projects. This will, of course, provide substantial
finance for renewable generation and transmission
projects – some of it off-grid, as well as strengthening
existing utilities and national transmission and
distribution systems. EU support will also seek to promote
more holistic programmes across a ‘nexus’ of sectors – for
example, linking energy projects to urban development,
and access to water and sanitation.

With a stronger focus on renewables – drawn from the
continent’s hydropower resources to solar, wind and
biomass, and a range of cutting-edge new technologies –
many African countries are better positioned than ever
before to exploit the new deal COP21 offers to help them
supercede old, often polluting technologies.
The European Union is strongly committed to supporting
this trend, with a commitment to allocate at least 20% of
Renewable technology has become increasingly cost-
competitive in recent years. The biggest developments to
date, in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and Morocco,
have demonstrated that large programmes can be
delivered on time and on budget. This is now being
replicated elsewhere, including Egypt, which has major
wind and solar programmes.
For go-ahead governments and ambitious entrepreneurs,

28 | AEEP

emerging renewables industries provide a means of
building a manufacturing base, delivering jobs and
diversifying ownership. The technologies offer particular
advantages: for example, they are well-suited for use in
remote rural areas – with technology such as solar
photovoltaic (PV) comparatively simple to operate and
construct – and currency risks are reduced, when
compared to many conventional thermal schemes.
The AEEP Power Project Database, created to provide the
main data flows in the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report, has
been updated for this Status Report Update. The data for
generation plants in operation and planned for completion
in the period to 2020 suggest that in some sectors – such
as the installation of solar capacity – developments have
largely surpassed the AEEP’s 2020 Political Targets, which
were agreed in 2007, when the global renewables industry
was at a very different stage of development.
However, this impressive performance is skewed by the
progress made in a handfull of countries; the experience
of many countries across Africa is that successfully
implementing renewables projects remains problematic
for many developers, while transmission and distribution
(T&D) systems have yet to catch up with developments.
Hydropower dominates at present
Hydropower remains the dominant renewable technology
supplying African grids. Away from North Africa and RSA,
there is only limited solar and wind power capacity
feeding the grid. The largest solar scheme operational in
East Africa remains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom Youth
Village solar PV plant, developed by Gigawatt Global and
commissioned by Scatec Solar in September 2014.
Installed renewable capacity by technology in 2010 and 2015, and 2020 projections
2010
Total capacity: 35,214MW Total capacity: 41,365MW
Pumped storage 1,580MW
4.5%
Wind 1,120MW
3.2%
Solar 102MW
0.3%
Hydroelectricity Geothermal 219MW
0.6%
31,430MW
89.3% Other renewables Hydroelectricity
763MW 33,604MW
2.2%
Renewable Energy
Encouraging partnership: the RECP
The AEEP’s Africa-EU Renewable Energy Cooperation
Programme (RECP) is a multi-donor programme that has
fostered technical expertise and encouraged business
cooperation since 2010. RECP seeks to facilitate an enabling
environment for renewable developments by supporting
improved regulatory frameworks and strengthening
institutions through its policy advisory services, meetings and
other instruments. This includes support for European and
African entrepreneurs through the provision of dedicated
market information. RECP is also rolling out Finance
Facilitator, an advisory platform to support meso-scale
renewable energy project preparation in Sub-Saharan Africa.
visit: http://www.africa-eu-renewables.org
In West Africa there are few projects of note operating,
other than Masdar’s 15MW solar PV project in Mauritania,
BXC Ghana’s 20MW solar PV plant (which began
commissioning tests late in 2015) and the 25.5MW
Cabeólica wind farm in Cape Verde. The 13.6MW Ngong II
wind farm remains the only solar or wind power project
larger than 10MW operating in East Africa. There is
virtually no wind or solar power in Central Africa and very
little in Southern Africa outside of South Africa.
…solar and wind pipeline is growing
However, a growing pipeline of projects, backed by an
increasingly formidable array of financial instruments and
technical expertise, is pushing governments to resolve
longstanding problems. Across the continent the market
for renewable energy is deepening as legal and regulatory
reforms are required to keep pace with increasingly well-
2015 2020
Pumped storage 1,580MW
3.8%
Wind 3,132MW Wind
7.6% 12.0%
Solar 1,546MW Solar
3.7% 8.5%
Geothermal 554MW
1.3% Geothermal &
other renewables
Other renewables
950MW 4.2%
2.3% Hydroelectricity
& pumped storage
81.2% 75.3%
Source:
AEEP Power Project Database
AEEP | 29
Renewable Energy
developed projects – and nascent markets are emerging.
Analysis of the project pipeline suggests Nigeria could
bring between two and four renewable energy projects to
close in 2016, with capacity of around 100MW. Also in
Nigeria, a procurement programme is being designed with
support from Germany’s GiZ, which is likely to start up
during the year. More projects are expected to follow the
BXC Ghana project, although issues remain to be resolved.
Zambia, Senegal, and Madagascar have all joined the
International Finance Corporation’s fast-moving Scaling
Solar initiative.
Questions of transmission
For solar and wind power in particular, the fragility of
antiquated transmission systems has been a longstanding
impediment, despite work to reinforce grids. Offtake
agreements have, in most cases, been underwritten by
state and development finance institutions – suggesting
the system of guarantees and insurance will be tested as
an increasing number of renewable generation projects
demand significantly more T&D infrastructure. Even RSA,
with its sophisticated grid infrastructure, has struggled to
keep up with the geographical spread of renewables
projects and pressures on its transmission system.
30 | AEEP
Other countries are likely to experience wind and solar
transmission difficulties. Concerns have been raised over
the effect on grid stability of the landmark 310MW Lake
Turkana wind project, under construction in Kenya, which
requires completion of a 428km transmission line. Zambia
Electricity Supply Company has issues taking power from
two new 50MW Scaling Solar photovoltaic plants, while in
Uganda, hydroelectric power plants recently sat completed
but without access to the grid pending coordination
between local authorities. The good news is that these
perennial problems have now been widely recognised –
and long overdue investments and reforms are starting to
be made in response.
Among renewables growth markets, Egypt may need to
consider strengthening its transmission backbone to take
electricity generated at solar PV projects in the south;
these are being developed under the first round of Cairo’s
innovative renewable energy feed-in tariff scheme.
Negotiations were under way as this report went to press
to put in place a standardised power purchase agreement
(PPA) for solar and wind power; the resulting document is
seen by experts to be a critical factor in attracting
investors to the market as Egypt rolls out its ambitious
development plans.
 Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt
Total renewable generation Total renewable generation Total renewable generation Total renewable generation Total renewable generation
capacity, 2015: 2,581MW capacity, 2015: 579MW capacity, 2015: 348MW capacity, 2015: 0MW capacity, 2015: 3,548MW
(84% of total generation capacity) (4% of total generation capacity) (8% of total generation capacity) Selected renewables projects: (9% of total generation capacity)
Selected renewables projects: Selected renewables projects: Selected renewables projects: PIPELINE Selected renewables projects:
COMMISSIONED COMMISSIONED COMMISSIONED Southern Region Wind Farm • 250MW COMMISSIONED
Afourer • Pumped storage • 463MW Hassi R’Mel • Solar (25MW) / thermal Métline • Wind • 120MW Western Region Wind Farm • 250MW Aswan High Dam • Hydro • 2,100MW
Tarfaya • Wind • 300MW (125MW) hybrid Kchabta • Wind • 70MW Al-Muqrun • Wind • 240MW Zafarana • Wind • 547MW
Allal El Fassi • Hydro • 240MW Mansouria • Hydro • 100MW Sidi Daoud • Wind • 54MW Al-Fatayeh (Darnah) • Wind • 120MW Aswan II • Hydro • 270MW
Al-Wahda • Hydro • 240MW Darguina • Hydro • 71MW PIPELINE Sabha • Solar • 100MW Aswan I • Hydro • 238MW
Ouarzazate (Noor I) • Solar • 160MW Ain El Ibel • Solar • 20MW TuNur • Solar • 2,250MW Gulf of Zeit • Wind • 200MW
Tangier • Wind • 140MW Laghouat • Solar • 20MW Mellah • Pumped storage • 400-500MW Kureimat • Solar/thermal hybrid • 140MW
PIPELINE Kabertene 1, 2 • Wind • 14MW, 10MW Akarit • Solar • 50MW Isna • Hydro • 86MW
Safi-Essaouira • Nuclear • 1,000MW PIPELINE PIPELINE
Ouarzazate (Noor II-IV) • Solar • 420MW Solar PV (photovoltaic) ¥ 5,443MW El Daba • Nuclear • 4,800MW
Noor Midelt • Solar • 400MW Wind ¥ 2,600MW Gulf of Suez projects • Wind • 2,430MW
Tiskrad • Wind • 300MW CSP (concentrated solar power) ¥ 1,000MW Feed-in Tariff Round 1 ¥ Solar ¥ 2,300MW
Safi • Wind • 300MW (Source: Sonelgaz Report, June 2015) DARGUINA, ERRAGUÈNE, Feed-in Tariff Round 1 ¥ Wind ¥ 2,000MW
Abdelmoumen • Pumped stor. • 350MW Meghaïr • Solar (70MW) / thermal IGHIL EMDA, MANSOURIA, Gebel El Zeit projects • Wind • 960MW
Koudia Al-Baida II • Wind • 300MW (400MW) hybrid West Nile projects • Wind • 700MW
Jbel Lahdid • Wind • 200MW
M
Naâma • Solar/thermal hybrid • 220MW MÉTLINE, E Kom Ombo I & II • Solar • 220MW
Noor Atlas ¥ Solar ¥200MW KCHABTA D SIDI DAOUD
Noor Tafilalet ¥ Solar ¥ 100MW ALGIERS MELLAH I
ABDEL. TORRES OUED FERNANA T
TANGIER, SENDOUK FODDA BOUGHEZOUL
KHALLADI HAOUMA TUNIS E
LAFARGE NADOR Oran Constantine SIDI SALEM R
OUED EL MAKHAZINE R
3 1 OUJDA AÏN OUSSERA NEBEUR A
N E
RABAT 4 Fès 2 AÏN BÉNI AIN EL IBEL Sfax A N
Casablanca 5 IDRISSI MATHAR MEGHAÏR TUNISIA
DAOURAT, S E
IMFOUT, S.S. MÂACHOU 14 6 M’DEZ EL MENZEL AKARIT A
13 NOOR-M LAGHOUAT AL-FATAYEH
15 8 7 NAÂMA (DARNAH)
SAFI-ESSAOUIRA 9 HASSI R’MEL TUNUR TRIPOLI
JBEL LAHDID Marrakech 10 MOROCCO TAJURA
AMOUGDOUL 11 ALGERIA MISRATAH Benghazi
(CAP SIM) OUARZAZATE TARHUNA Alexandria
12 AL-MUQRUN
ABDELMOUMEN PS MANSOUR EDDEHBI HASSI EL DABA
IFRANE MESSAOUD CAIRO
1 MOHAMMED V 13 AFOURER PS Giza
2 TAZA 14 AL-MASSIRA ZAFARANA
AKHFENNIR TAN-TAN KUREIMAT
3 AL-WAHDA 15 SAFI (OULAD GHANEM, OUALIDIA) SIWA GULF OF SUEZ
4 EL KANSERA GULF OF ZEIT
TARFAYA 5 OULJET ES SOLTANE KABERTENE LIBYA WEST NILE GEBEL EL ZEIT
SABHA
Nile

EL AYOUN 6 ALLAL EL FASSI

7 MIDELT ASYUT HURGHADA
TISKRAD 8 TANAFNIT EL BORJ Africa and Europe increasingly interlinked
Red
FOUM AL-OUAD 9 AHMED EL HANSALI Europe has promoted interconnection and generation schemes that could NAG HAMMADI
10 BIN EL OUIDANE,
Sea
allow countries on the EU’s southern flank to export energy produced
BOUJDOUR HASSAN 1er EGYPT
from renewable sources. The Mediterranean Solar Plan Project Preparation ISNA
Western Sahara 11 MANSOUR YOUSSEF
(under UN mandate) Initiative (MSP-PPI) – launched by the European Commission (EC), European KOM OMBO
12 LALLA TAKERKOUST
Investment Bank (EIB), KfW and the Union for the Mediterranean – aims ASWAN I, II ASWAN
Renewables and nuclear projects: to accelerate the implementation of renewable energy (RE), energy HIGH
Commissioned Commissioned efficiency (EE) and grid connection projects in several partner countries.
North African renewables projects

Pipeline Pipeline The EC, EIB and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are From the European Commission Communication on
among institutions providing financial and technical support for RE and Security of Energy Supply and International Cooperation,
EE projects. September 2011
Hydroelectric Solar/thermal Not all the plans to connect the electricity systems of North African and “As a major energy consumer, importer and technology provider,
(including pumped hybrid European states have been successful, in a challenging political and the EU has an interest in the energy policy developments of its
storage: PS) economic environment. One of the most ambitious schemes, the Desertec partners across the globe. It is in the EU’s strategic interest to build
Waste-to- Industrial Initiative, collapsed in 2013. However, elements of the concept stable and long-term partnerships with its key suppliers and new
Wind power/biomass of using North Africa’s vast solar potential to supply Europe with clean potential suppliers. The EU’s low carbon objectives call for a new
power still exist, while some experts are still promoting the concept of a type of partnership where there is potential for renewable energy
Solar Nuclear ‘supergrid’ uniting the region’s power systems. supplies. The Union has an interest in extending and lifting to a
EU initiatives include the Renewable Energy Co-operation Programme, higher level its energy cooperation with Algeria…Future EU-Libya
Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics launched in September 2010. Interconnections within Africa, and between energy cooperation could encompass a wide range of topics including
Sources: AEEP Power Project Africa and Europe, are critical to the Africa-EU Energy Partnership. renewable energy, electricity and energy market management.”
Database; African Energy Atlas

AEEP | 31
Renewable Energy
Renewable Energy

Hydroelectric power
60 in the period since the last Status Report. However, the
GW 55.30 (75% scenario) target should be comfortably met as a number of large
50 48.63 (50% scenario)
43.01 (AEEP target) projects are due to come online over the 2016-20 period.
40 35.18
33.01 41.97 (25% scenario)
30 Installed
37.36 (linear trend) Between 2010 and 2015, 2,174MW of hydropower
20 hydroelectric capacity was added. Additions were fairly evenly spread
capacity between the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with
10
projections 689MW added in West Africa, 560MW in Central Africa,
0 Source: AEEP Power
2010 2015 2020 Project Database 515MW in Southern Africa, and 411MW in East Africa. This
does not tell the whole story, however. Rehabilitation work
Hydropower can be a victim of climate change – as has been undertaken at a large number of dilapidated
disastrous water shortages in some regions leave dams facilities since the 2000s, improving performance and
barely able to generate electricity – but it also holds a key reliability. With much of the continent’s 35,304MW
to providing clean, sustainable baseload energy, which can hydropower capacity very old and operating well below its
be produced from the continent’s abundant hydrological potential output, rehabilitation has the potential to add
basins, in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia large amounts of power to the grid.
and several other ‘water towers’.
Run-of-river potential
The AEEP Power Project Database shows that, with its Large HEP projects dominate the AEEP Power Project
capacity to generate large volumes of energy, hydroelectric Database, but the AEEP is well aware that smaller projects
power (HEP) remains the dominant renewable technology can have a very big impact in providing energy for a large
operating on the continent – and will remain so in the portion of the rural population in Africa. Work is under
pipeline of projects being developed in the period to 2020 way to improve the commercial prospects of small run-of-
and beyond. Having turned away from large HEP projects river systems for rural electrification. In several countries,
in the previous decade due to concerns about such as Rwanda and Uganda, considerable progress has
environmental and social impacts, many donors are been made, supported by European instruments such as
looking to become involved in the sector again, but with a KfW’s GET-FIT scheme.
new system of safeguards in place.
With the advantage of being able to provide cheap power
Judged by the data, progress towards the AEEP’s target of 24 hours a day, small-scale HEP has considerable potential.
adding 10GW capacity increases has not been substantial The cost of identifying new sites on a scale which makes

New hydroelectric power generation capacity, 2000Ð15 2,290

2,200 2,200
MW MW
2,000 2,000

1,800 1,800
Average HEP
1,600 capacity added each 1,600
year, 2000-15:
1,400 439MW 1,400

1,200 1,200

1,000 1,000

800 800
588 593
600 515 492
600
441 463 438
394
400 400
234 258
186
200 200
73 36
20 3
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: AEEP Power Project Database

32 | AEEP
 Renewable Energy

the mass production of turbines viable, has been an issue.
However, improvements to satellite imaging and
accompanying software could help to identify thousands
of prospective sites (as it can optimise solar-powered mini-
grids), suggesting substantial progress to come.
‘Huge pipeline of projects’
African HEP will benefit from a huge pipeline of projects
which are under construction and expected to come into
operation over the next few years.
Most eye-catching are developments in Ethiopia, where
construction of the huge 6GW Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD) is well under way. Despite
serious concerns about water flows expressed by
downstream countries, GERD’s first two units are expected
to begin generating by the end of 2016. Ethiopian Electric
Power Company (EEPCo) reported that the first four
187MW turbines at the 1,870MW Gilgel Gibe III dam
began operating early in 2016, with the rest expected to
follow later in 2016. EEPCo is considering other large HEP
projects, including Gilgel Gibe IV (2GW), Tams (1.7GW) and
Karadobi (1.6GW). These developments will be welcomed,
providing their environmental and social impacts are well
understood and safeguards put in place.
European companies have long been active in the HEP
sector, as reflected in Italian firm Salini Costruttori’s
project pipeline in Ethiopia, and studies carried out by
Coyne et Bellier (Tractebel Group), Fichtner and Lahmeyer
International. But China has built up the largest presence
in building – and financing – HEP schemes. On the Victoria
Nile in Uganda, Sinohydro has been building the 600MW
Karuma dam since 2013; its next phase of development is
due to be finished in 2018, supported by a $1.4bn loan
from the Export-Import Bank of China. China International
Water and Electric Corporation (CIWEC) is building the
183MW Isimba dam, which has raised concerns from local
communities and the World Bank because of its potential
impact on tourism, the environment and cultural heritage.
In Cameroon, Sinohydro is building the 200MW Memve’ele
HEP, for operation in mid-2017. Construction is expected
to start in mid-2016 at the 420MW Nachtigal HEP, which is
being developed by EDF Energy, the International Finance
Corporation and the Cameroon government. In Côte
d’Ivoire, Sinohydro has been building the 274MW Soubré
dam since 2013, and on the border between Benin and
Togo it has begun work on the 147MW Adjarala HEP.
HEP projects that came online in 2015 include the 160MW
Lom Pangar dam in Cameroon and 28MW Nyabarongo I in
Rwanda. The 120MW Itezhi Tezhi plant in Zambia began
operating in January 2016, although drought has cut
output to a fraction of installed capacity. In Guinea, the
240MW Kaleta dam was commissioned in mid-2015 by
CIWEC – also contractor for the 450MW Souapiti dam.

Hydroelectric power installed capacity, 2000-15 Hydrological basins and water towers 1 Northwest coast
35.2 2 Mediterranean
35 34.4 34.7 2 south coast
33.8
33.0 33.3 3 North interior
32.5 4 Senegal
GW MIDDLE
ATLAS RANGE 2 5 West coast
30.2 30.2 6 Volta
29.6
30 29.1 29.6 1 3
28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 Total installed 3
hydroelectric generation 10
capacity in Africa
25 9
4 7 JOS 8 ETHIOPIAN
PLATEAU HIGHLANDS
5
6
10
20 FOUTA 5 5
DJALLON 12
7 Niger 9 11
8 Lake Chad 14 15
15 9 Nile ALBERTINE KENYAN
10 Red Sea / RIFT HIGHLANDS
Gulf of Aden coast 13
11 Rift Valley 11 SOUTHERN
12 Shebelle & Juba ANGOLAN HIGHLANDS
10 13 East central coast PLATEAU 16
LUFILIAN
14 Gulf of Guinea, east coast ARC
15 Congo 17
16 Southwest coast
17 Zambezi 18 24 25
5 18 South interior 19 23 CENTRAL HIGH
19 Namibia coast PLATEAU
20 Orange LESOTHO
21 South Africa west coast HIGHLANDS
22 South Africa east coast Sources:
0 20
23 Limpopo FAO-Aquastat;
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 15 21
24 Indian Ocean coast 22 UNEP (2010),
Source: AEEP Power Project Database 25 Madagascar Africa Water Atlas

AEEP | 33
Renewable Energy
Solar power
6,000 5,958 (75% scenario)
MW
5,000
4,606 (50% scenario)
4,000
3,254 (25% scenario)
3,000 Installed 2,989 (linear trend)
solar
2,000
generation
1,546
1,000 capacity projections
102 602 (AEEP target)
0 Source: AEEP Power
2010 2015 2020 Project Database
With some of the world’s strongest irradiation levels, solar
has long been expected to have a big role to play in Africa’s
energy future. That potential is now being confirmed, from
the implementation of world-scale projects in Morocco
and Republic of South Africa (RSA), to impressive growth in
the rooftop solar market, which is helping to mitigate the
impact of intermittent power supply and provide at least
some access to power for households not yet connected to
the grid.
Utility-scale solar parks have proven to be an effective way
of expanding generation in a short timeframe. Large solar
projects to date have not suffered the delays and cost
overruns characteristic of some other technologies.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) can now, in some cases,
deliver 12 hours of storage, enabling generators to help
meet morning peak demand.
Mini-grid technology continues to improve. Many
countries are working to put in place regulatory and
financial structures to develop a commercial model for
solar powered mini- and micro-grids. Solar lamps, USB
chargers and other products are having a transformative
impact on households previously reliant on kerosene
lamps and long walks to mobile phone charging stations.
For now, the AEEP Africa Power Project Database relates
overwhelmingly to utility and commercial solar power
plants. But as rooftop and mini-grid markets expand there
will be a need to monitor these technologies more closely
to reflect the new African reality.
Exponential success
The solar sector’s exponential success is revealed by data
that show the AEEP Political Target of adding 500MW
more generation capacity by 2020 was met only four years
after the 2010 baseline was set – and is expected to have
been met four times over by the end of 2016. Installed
capacity at end-2015 was 1,546MW, compared with
103MW in 2010.
However, there is good reason to be cautious about the of
34 | AEEP
the solar industry’s success. While progress is undoubtedly
being made, away from the major markets of North Africa
and South Africa there is much to do before solar and wind
power plants make an significant input into feeding
national grids. The largest solar power plant in East Africa
remains the 8.5MW Agahozo-Shalom Youth Village solar
PV developed by Gigawatt Global and commissioned by
Scatec Solar in September 2014. In West Africa there are
few projects of note operating other than Masdar’s 15MW
photovoltaic project in Mauritania and BXC Ghana’s
20MW PV project.
Solar products appear to be having the most impact,
notably rooftop solar programmes, in a majority of African
economies. Utility-scale solar is being held back by low
tariffs, inadequate regulation and weak transmission
systems. Efforts are under way to improve the situation,
such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s
Scaling Solar initiative, which is offering a holistic package
of support to prospective developers in three countries. In
Zambia, the first country to sign up to Scaling Solar, eleven
companies have prequalified to bid to build two 50MW
plants. The initiative is forcing the government to confront
problems around governance and transmission which, if
addressed, will make solar more appealing to investors.
The KfW-sponsored Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariffs
(GET-FIT) programme in Uganda has underpinned the
10MW Soroti PV plant and a 10MW plant at Tororo is
expected to follow later in 2016. Development finance
institutions (DFIs) are playing a key facilitating role in
assisting governments in the design of appropriate
procurement programmes. Thus Germany’s GIZ is working
in Nigeria to design a new solar initiative. IFC hopes to
include Nigeria in its Scaling Solar programme.
Models for utility-scale projects
Morocco and RSA demonstrate what can be achieved
when a solar procurement programme is structured
effectively. Morocco’s solar programme has benefitted
from strong political support and robust enabling
structures, including Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy
(Masen). This has been complemented by financial backing
from the WBG, AfDB and other multilaterals, KfW and
other DFIs. In the few months from end-2015 to early 2016
Masen began commercial operations at the 160MW Noor I
CSP project’s first phase. This is part of the planned
510MW Ouarzazate solar complex, which should be
completed in the period to 2020 – a record of achievement
which is encouraging greater participation by independent
power producers (IPPs).
 Renewable Energy

Other countries are investing heavily, and attracting funds,
to utility-scale solar, including Egypt, which is promoting
IPPs. Across the continent, larger scale solar schemes are
being promoted. Notable developments are expected in
energy poor regions such as the Sahel, where Chad,
Senegal and other governments are promoting utility-
scale schemes.
A flexible technology for off-grid
DFIs and private developers are increasingly focusing on
off-grid and mini-grid solutions. By creating the right
environment for private sector operators and investors, an
exponential increase in activity could follow in areas
unlikely to be connected to the main grid systems for
many years. Offgrid advocates argue that this would
circumvent the challenge of piecing together weak
transmission and distribution systems while expanding
access to energy poor communities.
An increasing number of African countries are putting in
place legislation and regulations to support nascent off-
grid and mini-grid industries. DFI initiatives and funds
have proliferated to support this. However, work remains
to be done to establish model commercial and regulatory
systems and significant questions remain to be answered
about the ability of off-grid solutions to meet the
ambitious targets set for them.
Among important initiatives, the European Commission
and Dutch DFI the Netherlands Development Finance
Company (FMO) began implementation of the
Electrification Finance Initiative (ElectriFI) to coincide with
the UN Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in late
2015. Rwanda has requested $50m from the Scaling Up
Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to back its
Renewable Energy Fund, which aims to catalyse private
sector investments in off-grid and mini-grid solar PV by
developing a comprehensive strategy for off-grid
electrification.
Pilot mini-grid projects initiated by NGOs and charitable
and corporate foundations have become sufficiently
established for private sector developers and government
utilities to begin pilots of their own (see Access).
The market for solar products such as lanterns and mobile
recharging stations is growing rapidly. SolarAid – a charity
founded by renewable developer SolarCentury and funded
in part by 5% of its profits – and its social enterprise
SunnyMoney has sold 1.7m of its solar lamps, priced at
$10 each, in rural communities in Africa. It aims to
eliminate the use of kerosene lanterns, which are
expensive and contribute to indoor air pollution. The
market is deepening. In its 2015 impact report, SolarAid
said that in 2009 it sold just 5,000 lanterns in Tanzania but
by autumn 2015 had sold a cumulative 904,528.

Solar generation capacity, 2010Ð15 Photovoltaic solar electricity potential

1,600 1,546
MW
Total installed
1,400 solar generation
capacity in Africa

1,200 Average solar 1,178

capacity added each
year, 2010-15:
246MW
1,000

841
800 New solar
capacity Yearly sum of global
irradiation incident on
optimally-inclined equator-
600 oriented photovoltaic
modules, 1985-2004 period
average, kWh/m 2
400 337
368 More than 2,600
2,400 – 2,600
209 2,200 – 2,400
200
127 128 2,000 – 2,200
102
35 25 1,800 – 2,000
1 Sources: HelioClim-1
0 1,600 – 1,800 database;
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PVGIS, European
Source: AEEP Power Project Database Less than 1,600 Communities

AEEP | 35
Renewable Energy

Wind power
8,000 8,299 (75% scenario) produce essential energy; this is underlined by Siemens’
MW 6,616 (50% scenario) decision to invest in a turbine manufacturing plant in
6,000 6,120 (AEEP target)
5,144 (linear trend)
Morocco and a growing number of projects in Republic of
Installed
wind
4,934 (25% scenario) South Africa (RSA). Investment in RSA has been
4,000 3,132
generation encouraged by the great success of the government’s
capacity
2,000 1,120 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
projections Procurement (REIPPP) programme.
0 Source: AEEP Power
2010 2015 2020 Project Database
An analysis of projects that have announced expected
commercial operation dates in the AEEP Power Project
As one of the cheapest sources of renewable power, wind Database suggests the AEEP Political Target of adding
technology can play a big role in the development of the 5,000MW wind power by 2020 can be met, by ensuring
electricity supply industry in Africa. To date, major wind that 43% of projects in the pipeline are completed on
power projects have been largely restricted to the time. Since 2010, 2,132MW of wind power has been
added, more than doubling the 2010 capacity of
industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa.
1,120MW.
The industry suffers logistical constraints on the
continent, for example a lack of large cranes and poor The gains are heavily concentrated in the continent’s most
access roads, while also being heavily impacted by industrialised countries. The regional breakdown shows
disputes over land rights and compensation. But it has that most countries are being left behind. While North
the potential to drive industrial development, as well as Africa has capacity to date of 1,807MW and South Africa

3,132
Wind generation capacity, 2000Ð15
3,000 3,000
MW MW
2,750 2,750

2,500 2,419 2,500

Average wind
2,250 capacity added each 2,250
year, 2000-15: Total installed
186MW wind generation
2,000 capacity in Africa 2,000

1,750 1,750
1,538
1,500 1,500
1,342
1,256
1,250 1,120 1,250

1,000 881 1,000

854

750 673 678 712 750

533 542 552 552
500 500
305 New wind
228 228 265
250 174 capacity 177 196 250
121 136
54 87
11 0 9 10 0 5
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: AEEP Power Project Database

36 | AEEP
 Renewable Energy

1,070MW, East Africa has only 223MW, West Africa

31.4MW, and Central Africa and Southern Africa (excluding
RSA) have less than 1MW between them.

The project pipeline looks set to maintain this trend, with

only 533MW projects planned in East Africa and 256MW
in West Africa. In Southern Africa (ex-RSA) only 45MW is
planned.

Problems to confront
Kenya shows the opportunities and challenges that Sub-
Saharan countries are facing in developing wind power
projects. While the 310MW Lake Turkana project has been
successfully financed and is scheduled to start a three-
year commissioning process later this year, the 428km
transmission line required to connect the project to the
grid has been delayed following problems with wayleave.
This means that offtaker KenGen may have to make payments
under the take-or-pay arrangement for power it cannot
evacuate until the transmission line project is complete.

There are also issues of grid stability in Kenya and many

other jurisdictions, including RSA. DFIs have been working
with Kenyan national transmission utility Ketraco to help
mitigate the impact of integrating Lake Turkana’s wind
power with the grid. Such is the concern, that the World
Bank has pulled back from the transmission project.

Issues of securing land can be problematic. Also in Kenya,

the 60.8MW Kinangop project has run out of funds after
long-running – and at moments violent – disputes over
compensation for landowners. These issues are a feature
of developing wind power projects across the continent.
There have also been protests in South Africa over some
wind projects.

Procurement successes
Such issues cannot be ignored by developers and their
financiers, but the wind sector can also point to some
considerable successes. These include the Cabeólica
project in Cape Verde,which was showcased in the 2014
Status Report (page 33).
The largest procurement programmes in wind are
currently in Egypt, Morocco and RSA. Egypt’s 547MW
Zafarana wind complex is the largest on the continent,
and more units are planned to be added through the
country’s feed-in tariff and other programmes.
Falling costs have made wind very competitive. Having
called for bids to develop five wind power projects with
850MW combined capacity, Moroccan state utility Office
National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau Potable (ONEE)
eventually received a leading bid of $0.03/kWh from seven
submissions.
In RSA, onshore wind power projects have proved by far
the cheapest source of projects procured through the
REIPPP programme. In the fourth round of the programme
the fully indexed price of power was R0.62 ($0.04)/kWh.
The REIPPP’s success is evident in the price, which has
been halved from R1.363 ($0.09)/kWh in the first round.
Wind power has proved successful in developing local
manufacturing bases in North and South Africa. Siemens is
planning turbine blade manufacturing facilities in
Morocco and Egypt while facilities have already been
opened in South Africa, which have supplied components
to wind power projects in the country.

AEEP | 37
Renewable Energy

Tripling other renewables

2,978 (75% scenario)
3,000 2,943 (AEEP target)
MW Installed 2,487 (50% scenario)
geothermal and
2,054 (linear trend)
2,000 other renewable 1,995 (25% scenario)
generation
capacity 1,503
1,000
981
projections
0 Source: AEEP Power
2010 2015 2020 Project Database
Generating electricity from biomass and geothermal
sources offers many advantages. Both energy sources can
provide reliable baseload power at low prices. Geothermal
can be developed on a large scale and is well suited to
supplying the grid 24 hours a day; costs can be low, at
between $0.04-0.08/kWh. Exploiting this technology
forms part of the rationale behind the Ethiopia-Kenya
interconnection project, where Kenyan geothermal
baseload is likely to be traded for peak hydropower from
Ethiopia, once the transmission line is complete. Biomass
fuelled by agricultural waste can be used to power remote
areas and stabilise the grid. However, progress expanding
the use of both has been slow.
Despite huge geothermal resources along the Rift Valley –
Africa’s most promising region for harnessing energy from
the earth’s core – only the Olkaria complex in Kenya has
been exploited so far on a large scale, while developments
at other sites have been delayed. There is a serious push to
develop geothermal power in Ethiopia (led by the 1GW
Corbetti project), and Djibouti has projects, but other
countries have yet to take off. Biomass is similarly limited
in its use for electricity generation to more industrialised
countries, despite it potential in poorer economies.
overtake biomass in around 2017-18. Other renewable
resources are being explored, but have yet to impact on
the AEEP data. These include landfill gas, of which many
projects are planned, but take an age to develop.
Geothermal projects have benefitted from financial
instruments designed to overcome the risks associated
with the early stages of development, led by the
Geothermal Risk Mitigation Facility (GRMF), which has
awarded grants in Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya,
Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda to private companies and
state-owned enterprises. The GRMF was established by the
African Union Commission (AUC), German Federal Ministry
for Economic Co-operation and Development and EU-
Africa Infrastructure Trust Fund (ITF) via KfW in 2012. It
received an initial €20m from Germany and €30m EU-ITF-
KfW. The UK has come in with £47m, since the 2014 Status
Report (page 49), where the GRMF was a Case Study.
Biomass projects have predominantly been developed by
private sector industrial players to meet some or all of
their own power requirements.In 2015, 52.2% of biomass
capacity was in Southern Africa, overwhelmingly in South
Africa, 37.4% in East Africa, 5.4% in West Africa, 2.9% in
North Africa, and 2% in Central Africa.
Biomass and geothermal generation capacity, 2010Ð15
1,000
950
Total installed
MW biomass generation
capacity in Africa
800 778 788 788
762 763

The AEEP’s Power Project Database shows that some

1,410MW will need to be added from other renewable
sources to treble the amount of generation from biomass 600
554 554
and geothermal resources from their 2010 levels. Analysis
of the current project pipeline suggests that because the Total installed
timelines for a number of larger geothermal projects in geothermal generation
400 capacity in Africa
Kenya have slipped, 73% of projects would have to be
completed on time for this target to reached. Between
296
2010 and 2015 the completion rate was around 75%. 258
219 219 222
While biomass in 2015 had more capacity – 950MW
200
compared with 554MW for geothermal – the project 162
New geothermal capacity
pipeline is considerably smaller. The lead times on biomass
New biomass capacity
projects are potentially quite short, and the industry is
35 36
responsive to positive regulatory and financial reforms, 0 1 0 15 3 10 0 0
0
but a majority of developments are moving slowly. At 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
current rates, geothermal capacity is anticipated to Source: AEEP Power Project Database

38 | AEEP
 Renewable Energy

Sub-Saharan renewables projects

West Africa East Africa
Selected renewables projects (commissioned and pipeline): Selected renewables projects (commissioned and pipeline):
CÔTE D’IVOIRE LIBERIA DJIBOUTI MADAGASCAR
Louga • Hydro • 280MW Lofa-Mano • Hydro • 518MW Assal • Geothermal • 150MW Befanova • Hydro • 700MW
Tiboto • Hydro • 225MW NIGERIA ETHIOPIA RÉUNION
Taabo • Hydro • 210MW Mambilla • Hydro • 3,050MW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Wave power under development
GHANA Makurdi • Hydro • 1,062MW (GERD) • Hydro • 6,000MW SOUTH SUDAN
Akosombo • Hydro • 1,020MW Lokoja • Hydro • 1,052MW Gilgel Gibe III & IV • Hydro • 3,870MW Upper White Nile ¥ Hydro ¥ 5,000MW
Ada • Ocean • 1,000MW Kainji • Hydro • 760MW Beko Abo • Hydro • 2,100MW SUDAN
Mankpan • Solar • 1,000MW SENEGAL Corbetti • Geothermal • 1,000MW Solar Euromed ¥ Solar ¥ 2,000MW
Bui I-IV • Hydro • 400MW Taiba Ndiaye • Wind • 215MW Tulu Moye • Geothermal • 800MW Merowe • Hydro • 1,250MW
GUINEA SIERRA LEONE Debre Berhan • Wind • 400MW Shereik • Hydro • 420MW
Souapiti • Hydro • 515MW Bumbuna I & II • Hydro • 202MW Tendaho Sugar Factory • Biomass • 40MW Red Sea coast • Wind • 180MW
Amaria • Hydro • 300MW Makeni • Biomass • 30MW KENYA TANZANIA
Emuruangogolak-Barrier complex ¥ Stiegler’s Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MW
Geothermal ¥ 2,000MW Mnyera • Hydro • 700MW
Bogoria-Silali I–IV • Geothermal • 2,000MW Mbeya I & II • Geothermal • 200MW
Menengai I–II • Geothermal • 1,200MW Singida I & II • Wind • 200MW
Lake Turkana • Wind • 310MW
UGANDA
Murchison Falls • Hydro • 642MW
Dal Red Sea coast Ayago N & S • Hydro • 600MW
CAPE M A U RITAN IA Kajbar Karuma • Hydro • 600MW
VERDE Nouakchott 15 Dongola Bujagali • Hydro • 250MW
46 9% MALI Merowe Shereik
25% NIGER
291 S U D A N Upper ERITREA A Tulu Moye
54% 4 1,647 Atbara 8
Méouane SENEGAL B Debre-Berhan
Taiba Ndiaye 0.5 2% 48% & Setit 5%
Kandadji CHAD C Karadobi
THE GAMBIA 0.1% Manantali Tekeze D Beko Abo
Sambangalou BURKINA FASO Gambou 0 Nyala Tana- Tendaho DJIBOUTI
0 Kenana E Halele-
44 NIGERIA Beles 0
Mana Roseires Werabesa
12 Assal
GUINEA-BISSAU 17%
0 Noumbiel BENIN Kainji 7,287 GERD B F Corbetti
GUINEA 3 37% A Ayisha
368 61% 4 Bumbuna CÔTE Mankpan
0.5
Shiroro Mandaya DC
0.4% Jebba Makurdi Baro Adama
Makeni D’IVOIRE E ETHIOPIA
SIERRA LEONE Nangbeto CENTRAL S O UT H
1 Kaléta 655 Bui Mambilla AFRICAN
54 35% Lofa- Adjarala Lokoja REPUBLIC S UD A N Tams F 2,549
2 Grand Kinkon Mano 34% 8 9 TOGO CAMEROON 0.2 0 84% SOMALIA
3 Souapiti LIBERIA 5 Ada Ikom 6% Gilgel Gibe Genale 0
GHANA 81 910 Dimoli
4 Amaria 5 6 7 Upper White Nile
1,582 35% 42%
5 Tiboto 10% EQUAT. GUINEA 11 2 1 1 Bubisa
49% 10 Chollet UGANDA 7
6 Louga, Soubré 128 39% 728 2 Lake Turkana
7 S Bananda Sendjé 3
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Wanie- 84% 9 8 4 Tana River 3 Turkwel
8 Taabo 10 Edéa, Song Loulou Booué Rukula Mubuku 5
5 14% Grand 3 Emuruangogolak-
9 Akosombo 11 Grand Eweng, Song Mbengué G AB O N Poubara Karisimbi RWANDA 6 KEN YA Barrier
325 D EM O CR A T I C Ruzizi 88 60% 1,420 4 Bogoria-Silali
48% Sounda R EPUB L I C O F Rusumo Falls 63% 5 Menengai
Central Africa BURUNDI
Selected renewables projects REPUBLIC OF CONGO Gorge CO N GO 6 Olkaria
(BRAZZAVILLE) Siguvyaye 38 Singida 7 Ayago, Karuma,
(commissioned and pipeline): 2,561
228 Zongo 83% Murchison Falls
CAMEROON 99% TANZANIA
36% Inga 8 Bujagali, Kiira,
Grand Eweng • Hydro • 1,000–2,000MW Kalengwe, 611 Mtera
Song Mbengué • Hydro • 930MW Lauça, Sombwe Nalubaale
36%Mbeya Stiegler’s Gorge
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO Nhangue 9 Kampala
Cambambe Nzilo Mambilima Mnyera
Grand Inga (incl. Inga III) • Hydro • up to 44GW COMOROS
Inga I & II • Hydro • 1,775MW Caculo Cabaça
Capanda MALAWI Rumakali, 0.1
Wanie-Rukula • Hydro • 688MW Cafula SEYCHELLES
Mumbotuta Songwe 0.4%
Ruzizi I-IV • Hydro • 509MW ANGOLA 300 7
1,118 Z A M B IA 93% 10%
REPUBLIC OF CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE) Mayotte
Sounda Gorge • Hydro • 1,000MW Gove 45% 2,452 Cahora (Fr.)
Tombua 87% Mpata Bassa
Nkula
GABON Lower Kafue Gorge
Booué • Hydro • 410MW Mphanda Nkuwa, Betsiboka River
Baynes Batoka Gorge, Kariba
Devil’s Gorge Lupata Boroma
Ruacana Munyati
Z IM B A B WE M O Z A M B I Q UE Ikopa River MAURITIUS
Southern Africa Maun 753 2,245 171
Updraft 79% Mania River
Selected renewables and nuclear projects (commissioned and pipeline): 39% 26%
tower Bulawayo, Gwanda M A D A GA S CA R
ANGOLA Orapa 126
Lauça • Hydro • 2,120MW REIPPP (Renewable Energy Independent Selebi-Phikwe Réunion (Fr.)
NAMIBIA Morupule 36% Befanova
Caculo Cabaça • Hydro • 1,560MW Power Producer Procurement) Programme,
Capanda • Biomass • 355MW Rounds 1-4 ¥ Various ¥ 6,298MW 431 BOTSWANA
LESOTHO Koeberg • Nuclear • 1,800MW 73% 0
Kobong • Pumped storage • 1,200MW Ingula • Pumped storage • 1,332MW SWAZILAND
Drakensberg • Pumped storage • 1,000MW Ngwempisi
MOZAMBIQUE Lüderitz 183 95%
Cahora Bassa • Hydro • 2,075MW ZAMBIA Upington Drakensberg PS
& Karashoek area Kathu Ingula PS Major renewable and
Mphanda Nkuwa • Hydro • 1,500MW Lower Kafue Gorge • Hydro • 1,550MW area Felixton nuclear projects: Commissioned
Cahora Bassa Norte • Hydro 1,245MW Kariba North Bank • Hydro • 1,080MW Pofadder area Vanderkloof Pipeline
NAMIBIA ZAMBIA/ZIMBABWE Kotulo Tsatsi Kobong PS Commissioned
Ruacana • Hydro • 424MW Batoka Gorge • Hydro • 2,100MW Prieska area LESOTHO Pipeline
Devil’s Gorge • Hydro • 1,200MW De Aar area Gariep 145
Baynes • Hydro • 400MW
SOUTH AFRICA ZIMBABWE SOU TH AFRICA 100% Geothermal
Saldanha area 4,702 Cookhouse area
Thyspunt or Duynefontein • Nuclear • Bulawayo, Gwanda, Munyati • Koeberg Hydroelectric
up to 9,600MW Solar • 100MW each 10%
Duynefontein Port Elizabeth area (including pumped Waste-to-
Kariba South Bank • Hydro • 1,050MW Thyspunt
Palmiet PS storage: PS) power/biomass

00 Total renewable generation capacity, 2015 (MW)

00% Wind Nuclear
As percentage of total generation capacity
Sources: AEEP Power Project Database;
Multiple-site programmes are listed in italics
African Energy Atlas Solar Ocean power

AEEP | 39
Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency (EE) is a core component of measures for
reducing carbon emissions and for raising economic
performance by the ensuring scarce resources are not
wasted. However, across Africa the benefits of EE are often
overlooked, or policies are poorly implemented, even
though well-designed EE programmes can reduce costs for
households and enterprises. Even in one of the most
proactive countries, Morocco, CGEM employers association
president Miriem Bensalah Chaqroun observed in April
2016 that “the level of implementation of planned energy
efficiency investments hasn’t reached 5%”.
Efficiency is difficult to quantify It manifests itself in
different ways – in better appliances, new industrial
processes, changes in economic structure and an effective
electricity supply industry . Initiatives to improve EE can
take many forms, from improved insulation to regulations.
As a result, there are a number of different ways to
measure EE, each of which has deficiencies. With proxies
for EE, such as total primary or total final energy intensity,
data is relatively easy to retrieve, but difficult to interpret.
These potentially reflect a wide range of determining
factors, such as climate (heating and cooling needs),
economic structure (in terms of sectors), the size of a
country (with regard to transport needs), the exchange
rate, electrification rate or extent of biomass usage.
level. One indicator example could be energy consumption
per unit of appliance.
In this report – for reasons of data availability and
consistency with earlier reporting – final energy
consumption per GDP at purchase power parity has been
chosen as the main indicator. Data is drawn from the
SE4All Global Tracking Framework.
For the electricity sector, network losses are a measure of
an efficient sector in good condition. Reducing losses
through transmission and distribution reduces the need
for generation, while at the same time improving the
quality of supply by increasing the availability of power
and stability of the grid.
AEEP workstream
The AEEP established an Energy Efficiency Workstream
with the aim of supporting stakeholders in the private
sector, academia and civil society. It has been preparing a
draft strategic plan to 2017, with its first workshop to be
held in May 2016. Work is ongoing to identify stakeholders
to map EE initiatives and strategies, which will be used to
develop a matrix containing clear recommendations to
promote energy efficiency in an African context.

As the AEEP’s 2014 Status Report observed, energy EE Laws and Regulations
intensity can be at least as much an indicator of national
economic performance, since it captures structural To complement the quantitative monitoring of energy
changes and fluctuations in an economy at least as much efficiency data, a table was compiled for the 2014 AEEP
as any changes in EE. Therefore, a low level of energy
Status Report that showed the extent of legal and
institutional infrastructure across the continent. The
intensity does not necessarily mean high efficiency. This is
Energy Efficiency Laws table (on Status Report pages 56
nicely demonstrated by an example taken from the
and 57) – and associated collection of relevant
International Energy Agency – of a small, service-based
legislation and regulations – could be updated as a
country with a mild climate that would certainly have a
future workstream, to provide an overview of the extent
much lower intensity than a large industry-based country
of policy coverage in each of the 55 countries covered,
in a very cold climate, even if energy is more efficiently
and to monitor progress in introducing and
consumed in the latter country than in the first.
implementing legislation to help implement policy,
Sectoral energy intensity, as shown in the table on page create or reinforce institutions that regulate energy
40, provides somewhat more informational value since it efficiency measures, provide financial incentives and
allows an initial assessment of trends in energy oversee projects.
consumption and comparisons across countries. Then
Work is under way to support the regulatory framework
there are disaggregated indicators, such as sub-sectoral or
and enabling environment for improving energy
end-use indicators within various sectors, such as
efficiency, with support from the EU’s Technical
residential, services, industry, or transport (passenger and
Assistance Facility (TAF) for the SE4All Initiative and
freight). Process or appliance indicators capture even more
other European instruments.
disaggregate information at the unit energy consumption

40 | AEEP
 Energy Efficiency

Energy intensity
9
%
8 7.90
7 from Southern Africa. Final energy intensity in the average
6.33
Average energy
6 5.52 (based on 2000–12 trend)
intensity of
5 final energy
4.83 (based on 2010–12 trend)
4
projections
3 US$ 2011 purchasing
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 20 power parity
The data used from the World Bank SE4All database
suggest the African continent has seen a decrease in
average final energy intensity of 20% (or an average 2.9%
per year) from 7.9MJ at 2011 US dollar ($) purchasing
power parity (PPP) to 6.3MJ/$ PPP over the period 2000 to
2012. This compares with the more modest decrease of 6%
(or average 1.8% per annum) from 6.7MJ/$ PPP to 6.3MJ/$
PPP between 2010 and 2012. The data thus shows that a
seemingly positive trend – given all data and conceptual
qualifications – seems to have slowed down considerably.
In comparison, average primary energy intensity for Africa
(encompassing data from 53 African countries) has
decreased from 10.4MJ/$ PPP in 2000 to 8.9MJ/$ PPP in
2012 (average annual rate of 1.3%) – or by an average 2%
per year between 2010 and 2012 (9.2MJ/$ PPP in 2010).
Average energy intensity by sector – as measured by the
ratio between energy consumption in the respective sector
and the sector value-added at purchasing power parity (or
the number of households for the residential sector) –
seems to have decreased in almost all sectors – except for
agriculture – over the past 12 years. However, data for the
past three years points to a stagnation of this trend, too.
The data is surprisingly consistent across regions, aside
North African country was 6.4MJ/$ PPP in 2012, in East
Africa it was 5.4MJ/$ PPP, in West Africa 5.5MJ/$ PPP and
Central Africa 4.8MJ/$ PPP. The figure in Southern Africa
was 9.6MJ/$ PPP, or 10.2MJ/$ PPP without South Africa.
This suggests caution is required when working with the
energy intensity target.
It is clear that less industrialised regions of Africa have a
tendency to have lower energy intensity, so it is possible
that the lower intensity may be down to a much smaller
industrial base. However, a closer inspection of the figures
shows that many of the poorest countries such as the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Liberia have
very high energy intensity. While it is possible that the
limited industrial base in these countries is energy
inefficient, it should also be remembered that an
unusually low GDP could result in a high energy intensity
figure.
The regional breakdown implies that energy intensity
measures might most usefully be targeted at the
industrialised countries of North Africa and South Africa.
The scale of industry in these countries means that the
potential energy efficiency savings are substantially larger.
Another aspect of the way energy intensity is measured –
energy use divided by GDP– is that the figure may fall
because the industrial base is shrinking. For example, it is
possible that energy intensity may decline in line with the
fall in mining output across the continent, due to low

Average energy intensity of final energy, 2000 Ð12

10 10
MJ/$ MJ/S
7.9 7.7 7.7
8 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3 8
7.0 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6
6.3
6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework US$ 2011 purchasing power parity

AEEP | 41
Energy Efficiency

commodity prices, for example. In this case there would be
no energy efficiency benefit or the reduction might only
be temporary. Africa only commands roughly 1.5% of the
world’s total manufacturing output, according to the
United Nations Industrial Development Organisation
(Unido), and even this tiny share of global production is
heavily concentrated in the few industrialised countries.
This suggests that energy intensity trends over the next
decade are likely to mirror more closely trends in economic
composition, rather than energy efficiency.

Energy intensity level of final energy, 2012

TUNISIA
2.6
MOROCCO
2.6
ALGERIA
2.4 LIBYA
2.9 EGYPT
2.4

MAURITANIA
CAPE VERDE 1.9 3.6
NIGER
MALI 4.6 SUDAN ERITREA
SENEGAL 2.5 CHAD 3.6 3.0
3.8 2.5
THE GAMBIA 3.9 BURKINA FASO DJIBOUTI
5.4 2.5
GUINEA-BISSAU 12.6 BENIN
GUINEA 10.0 8.5 NIGERIA ETHIOPIA
CÔTE GHANA 5.4 CENTRAL SOUTH 13.8
SIERRA LEONE 5.6 D’IVOIRE 3.1 AFRICAN REP. SUDAN
5.3 CAMEROON 4.0 na SOMALIA
LIBERIA TOGO 31.7
21.9 4.6
9.5
UGANDA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE 3.4 8.3 KENYA
GABON RWANDA 6.0
EQUATORIAL GUINEA 0.5 2.6 3.4
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI
REP. OF CONGO CONGO 12.2 SEYCHELLES 2.6
(BRAZZAVILLE) 18.3
TANZANIA
2.1 10.4
COMOROS 3.1
15.0+ MJ/$ ANGOLA MALAWI
3.1 ZAMBIA 5.4
10.0 – 14.9 MJ/$ 6.9
6.0 – 9.9 MJ/$ MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE 12.8
MADAGASCAR
3.0 – 5.9 MJ/$ 15.9
3.9 MAURITIUS 3.2
NAMIBIA
Less than 3 MJ/$ 3.2 BOTSWANA
2.9
No data available
SWAZILAND
4.7
Figures in red indicate a deterioration SOUTH LESOTHO
in the situation since 2010 AFRICA 9.7
4.4
US$ 2011 purchasing power parity
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework

Energy intensity projections

Energy intensity by sector* Energy intensity CAGR CAGR Country coverage

2000-2012 2010-2012
2000 2010 2012

Residential (GJ/Household) 46.2 42.8 42.9 -0.6% 0.1% 52

Transport 19.2 12.2 12.0 -3.9% -0.9% 49

Industry 4.2 3.4 3.4 -1.8% -0.1% 46

Agriculture 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.4% 0.6% 22

Services 0.8 0.5 0.5 -3.3% 2.3% 30

* All sectors MJ/$ at 2011 purchasing power parity. Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework.

42 | AEEP
 Energy Efficiency

Network losses
14
% 13.06
13 12.67 12.64 (based on 2000–12 trend)
12 12.27 (based on 2010–12 trend)
11
Average transmission
and distribution losses
projections
10
2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 20 % of total electricity output
Electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are
an important aspect of supply side efficiency that
continue to be a challenge in many African countries.
Compared to Europe or the US, where average network
losses of 7% can be assumed, many African countries need
to cope with sometimes sizable quantities of power lost
between generation locations and the end-user.
Inadequate distribution infrastructure and damaged
power lines are factors that can account for this
phenomenon. Other factors include technical as well as
non-technical losses arising from unmetered, unbilled and
unpaid electricity, including theft. However, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) has established that the
location of primary energy resources (such as hydro-lakes
and coal seams) and large loads (cities and industries) can
have an even more dominant effect on aggregate network
losses. These indicators cannot be properly accounted for
without detailed analysis.
For the purposes of this report, annual average T&D losses
have been calculated as their sum in GWh for all countries
for which data was available, divided by the sum of total
electricity output in GWh for the same sample countries.
Average network losses for Africa exhibit a quite stable
trend, with only a 0.4% decrease between 2000 and 2012
(from 13.1% to 12.7%) and no change between 2010 and
2012. This tendency is similar when comparing
SE4All/Global Tracking Framework data with statistics
provided by the US Energy Information Administration
(EIA), even when accounting for total electricity output
plus electricity imports as the denominator.
If African average T&D losses are measured as the average
of the percentage losses per country for each year of the
same sample, this results in losses of 21.5% for 2000,
21.4% for 2010, and 26% for 2012. The 2012 increase was
largely due to Botswana, which as a net electricity
importer displays losses as high as 158%; this makes the
link between generation and distribution appear
implausible, but as mentioned above, the overall trend for
Africa remains broadly the same even if electricity imports
are accounted for.
It should be pointed out that the numbers in the World
Bank/SE4All database seem to have changed significantly
in some instances since the last AEEP Status Report, which
was published in 2014 and used a dataset that concluded
in 2010. Further, the data show large fluctuations in T&D
losses year-on-year for some countries. This could be due
to varying electricity imports. Alternatively, the validity of
the data must be questioned.
Looking at average regional network losses, all regions
have remained at more or less similar levels over time,
except for West Africa which has improved its T&D losses
by more than 20 percentage points from 36.6% in 2000 to
15.9% in 2012. The data suggest that, in West Africa,
Nigeria has made notable improvements, from 51% of

Average transmission and distribution losses, 2000Ð12

15 15
13.5
13.1 13.0
12.5 12.7 12.7
% 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.2 %
11.5 11.8 11.8

10 10

5 5

0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework % of total electricity output

AEEP | 43
Energy Efficiency

losses in 2000 to 23% in 2010 and 12% in 2012. Senegal’s
network losses also fell, from 43% in 2000 to 19% in 2012.
Southern Africa – excluding the Republic of South Africa
(RSA) – experienced considerable deterioration between
2000 and 2010. Since then, the situation has stabilised at
about 18.6% of T&D losses. In Southern Africa, apart from
the special case of Botswana, Zambia’s losses worsened
quite significantly from 3% in 2000 to 24% in 2010 and
2012. The fact that Zambian generation rose by about 50%
in the same timeframe, led consultancy KPMG to conclude,
in its 2015 Power in Africa report, that improvements in
generation capacities had not been accompanied by an
adequate build-up of distribution infrastructure.
The data show that Central Africa displays a very low level
of network losses. One apparent reason for this is that in
economies like Democratic Republic of Congo – with very
low levels of access – generation capacity is often built for
specific end-users, notably extractive industries, who do
not require extensive distribution infrastructure.

Transmission and distribution losses, 2012

TUNISIA
16.0
MOROCCO
13.4
ALGERIA
20.5 LIBYA
13.1 EGYPT
11.1

MAURITANIA
CAPE VERDE na na
NIGER
MALI na SUDAN ERITREA
SENEGAL na CHAD 19.0 16.7
19.4 na
THE GAMBIA na BURKINA FASO DJIBOUTI
na na
GUINEA-BISSAU na BENIN
GUINEA na na NIGERIA ETHIOPIA
CÔTE GHANA 11.7 CENTRAL SOUTH 14.9
SIERRA LEONE na D’IVOIRE 22.0 AFRICAN REP. SUDAN
19.6 CAMEROON na na SOMALIA
LIBERIA TOGO na
na 12.6
93.0
UGANDA
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE na na KENYA
GABON RWANDA 19.0
EQUATORIAL GUINEA na 21.9 na
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI
REP. OF CONGO CONGO na SEYCHELLES na
(BRAZZAVILLE) 7.8
TANZANIA
45.9 18.1
COMOROS na
% of gross electricity production: ANGOLA MALAWI
11.9 ZAMBIA na
80.0% + 24.3
40.0 – 79.9% MOZAMBIQUE
ZIMBABWE 15.1
20.0 – 39.9% 16.2 MADAGASCAR
na MAURITIUS na
NAMIBIA
10.0 – 19.9% 26.2 BOTSWANA
158.1
Less than 10%
SWAZILAND
No data available na
SOUTH LESOTHO
Figures in red indicate a deterioration AFRICA na
9.1
in the situation since 2010
Source: SE4All Global Tracking Framework

Average network losses (%)

North Africa West Africa East Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Southern Africa
(minus RSA)

2000 14.6 36.6 18.9 13.2 9.0 11.5

2010 12.6 22.8 16.7 12.3 10.9 18.7

2020 13.6 15.9 17.9 14.1 10.5 18.6

44 | AEEP
African and European
Contributions
(ICA), which is managed by the AfDB in Abidjan. This
10 Funding to the
African energy useful tool has, over several years, tracked commitments
bn euros
sector: made by the European Investment Bank (EIB), European
8
3.60 from EU Commission (EC), France, Germany and the UK. It has been
2.77
6 working to expand its coverage, with significant success,
and this data is used to inform this report.
4 1.46
5.64 from Africa
2
5.17 African national government budget
3.32
allocations
0 The ICA has also been expanding its coverage and analysis
2012 2013 2014
of infrastructure spending in African government budgets.

Available data suggests that African national

European Union institutions, member states and their
corporate and individual citizens play a very important role
in helping to develop Africa’s energy infrastructures and
capabilities, but – as the 2014 Status Report pointed out –
measuring the extent of that role remains problematic
given the relative lack of data. Many of the shortfalls
recorded then by the AEEP Secretariat and its consultants
persist, for example showing that groups of development
finance institutions (DFIs) do not yet collate data on their
financing flows and outcomes. There are also issues in
measuring contributions that pass via institutions such as
the World Bank Group (WBG) and African Development
Bank (AfDB) Group, both of which have a substantial
European shareholding and, thus, a stake in their high
levels of support for African energy projects.
The AEEP Power Projects Database cannot yet produce
accurate numbers for each party’s contributions to
financing developments. Much more work is needed to
identify each of the financial instruments that feed into
the several thousand projects recorded. However, while a
daunting information-gathering challenge which would
require very considerable resources, there is no technical
reason why this should not be possible.
Neither is there a complete record of European
commitments to the African energy sector. The most
complete time series of commitments by bodies within
the EU is kept by the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa
governments’ budget allocations, combined with
commitments made directly or indirectly through the
AfDB and WBG by EU member states appear to be on a
steep, upward trend. This is shown in data produced for
the ICA and calculations made by the AEEP Secretariat.
While the majority of African countries allocated most of
their infrastructure capital spending to the transport
sector, some have prioritised the energy sector. These
include Algeria, Angola, Kenya and Tanzania, each of which
in 2014 allocated more than $500m to energy through
their annual budgets.
According to data published by 34 African governments,
state funds of at least €5bn were committed to capital
expenditure on energy projects in 2013 and 2014; this was
rather more than the €3bn committed in 2012.
Given the differences in data availability on national
budget allocations, the table on page 47 shows a control
group of 21 African countries that have reported budget
allocations on a consistent like-for-like basis for the three
years to 2014. While some countries report broadly even
allocations, there are some big fluctuations, as seen in the
data captured for Angola, Ghana, Senegal, South Sudan
and Togo. It appears encouraging that the total control
group allocations rose sharply after 2012, but data can be
deceptive, as this increase is almost entirely due to
Angola’s larger allocations.

AEEP | 45
African Contribution

African national governmentÕs budget allocations mechanisms, such as the AfDB’s $1bn loan commitment
to the energy sector, per capita average 2012Ð14 in 2014 for the Angola Power Sector Reform Support
Larger allocations: Programme, or the impact of investment, such as the
20 €6.9bn committed by several funders in 2010 to the
26
9.
11

Eskom Investment Support Project.

Absolute national budget allocations lack meaning given

euros
the different sizes of the economies involved. In this
6
.7 context, the amount of spending per capita may be a
16

more relevant measure.

16
Analysis of average national budget allocations per
4
.9
14

capita over the three years to 2014 show some very wide
variations. This is based on initial work in this area by the
AEEP’s consultants, working with data from national
finance ministries and central banks. Angola stands out
5
.9

as having by far the largest allocations to energy per

11

12
capita (at around €95/head). Botswana is ranked second
in this analysis (at €40/head), substantially ahead of
third- and fourth-ranked Cape Verde (€16 /head) and
Kenya (€14). These rankings should not be considered
true guides to a country’s commitment or overall
spending on African energy infrastructure, which may be
8
mainly made by a state utility or other subnational body.
26

Data considerations
6.
7
.7
25

Data for national budget allocations to Africa’s energy

sector in 2014 is based on analysis of 42 countries that
published information on infrastructure capital spending
4
59

in their budgets over a three-year period to 2014. This

3.

group – comprising 34 countries in 2014, 23 in 2013 and

27 in 2012 – published clearly identifiable allocations to
energy infrastructure capital expenditure. Excluded from
the data used for AEEP purposes are allocations that may
include revenue spending, elements aimed at oil or gas
0 infrastructure that fall beyond the type of infrastructure
re
la

ia
rd
an

ny

an

contemplated in the AEEP context, or allocations to

ib
go

oi
Ve

Ke

m
w

Gh
Iv
An

ts

d’

Na
pe

multi-sector projects.
Bo

te
Ca

Cô

Smaller allocations:
This implies data presented here may be understated.
02

Neither can a degree of double-counting be excluded,

2.

2
60

4
1.

4
1.

euros where national budgets include spending funded by DFIs

2

95
1 .0

0.

1 or some other external source. The extent of double-

04
9

01
r 0.0

.0

counting is difficult to assess and appears to vary greatly.

ia 0.

Bi ea- 0

0
Where budgets specify amounts of internal and external
i

e
l
ria

au
nd
ga

ca
yp

M biqu

op
ge

ss
in
as
ne

M uru
Eg

funding for an allocation, capital expenditure on energy

hi
Gu
Ni

ag
Se

am

Et
B

ad

in the Mozambican and Ugandan budgets was

oz

respectively 78% and 73% internally funded, whereas

Severe peaks and troughs in the control group data are
similar to those found in external funders’ contributions to
the African energy sector. There are many reasons for
these fluctuations, which include the project cycles of the
largest schemes. Data can be skewed by a higher than
usual injection of DFI funding into budget support
Ethiopia’s budgets showed 74% was externally financed.
Subnational spending
One marked trend is towards increased subnational
spending in Africa, by local governments, state utilities,
regional and country-based development and
infrastructure banks. However, these sources of funding

46 | AEEP
 African Contribution

have yet to be accurately identified and screened for commitments and disbursements from this burgeoning
double-counting before they can be added to the data that cohort of existing and potential funding sources.
monitors and assesses what resources are being
committed to the energy sector. Emerging private sources
African public sector funds flow into the energy sector Privately sourced financing for energy infrastructure is
from several sources. National government budget emerging across Africa – and in other regions such as the
allocations are a major source, but the role of subnational Gulf states – as predicted by the 2014 Status Report (page
funding should not be underestimated. Local or municipal 59), which observed that a trend towards parastatal,
government, or state utilities, are increasingly positioning capital markets and other private sector sources of
themselves to deploy internally generated funds or funding was emerging. A key focus for AEEP stakeholders
leverage finance from financial markets (as has been is to intensify the ‘blending’ of public and private finance.
established previously in other emerging regions such as Including more representatives of this trend among the
Eastern Europe and Latin America). In some of Africa’s AEEP’s stakeholder community, and monitoring this
largest economies – including Egypt, Republic of South important development are potential focal points for
Africa (RSA), Nigeria and Morocco – there is a very
substantial emphasis on subnational financing.
African National Government Budget Allocations
In its 2014 budget, the City of Johannesburg, allocated for Energy Infrastructure ($m)
€239m to infrastructure as defined by the ICA (transport,
water, energy and information and communications Country 2012 2013 2014
technology, or ICT); this was equivalent to 45% of its
capital expenditure. Johannesburg expected to raise Angola 627.958 2,691.854 2,270.628
€294m of its budget through internally generated taxes Botswana 124.529 77.881 55.413
and service charges. In 2013, the Lagos State Government
Burundi 7.300 11.994 10.565
Bond–Series 2 raised €422m for infrastructure.
Cape Verde 11.822 5.601 9.004
Morocco’s advanced regionalisation programme embraces
the concept of subnational government financing and Cote d'Ivoire 142.761 167.389 272.350
mechanisms for infrastructure funding, through structures
Egypt 130.026 85.588 124.886
such as the Fonds d’Equipement Communal (FEC), which
provides loans for specific investment projects and lines of Ethiopia 0.524 0.678 1.379
credit for financing longer-term development
Ghana na 40.507 160.867
programmes. FEC is financed through the local financial
market notably through credit lines, bond loans and Guinea Bissau 0.022 0.138 0.006
deposit certificates.
Kenya 559.459 695.225 670.584
African regional development banks are also ploughing
Madagascar 0.952 3.057 2.118
funds into the energy sector and leveraging financial
markets. Participants in the Lake Turkana Wind Project Mozambique 18.791 13.403 23.278
financing included the East African Development Bank and Namibia 7.824 4.849 7.871
PTA Bank, which concluded a milestone in November 2014
with a syndicated loan with a target of $200m; the facility Nigeria 338.506 353.033 283.453
closed at $320m, 1.6 times oversubscribed. Senegal 1.036 27.347 27.419
Other African sources of public sector finance include the South Africa 378.346 334.037 248.939
participation of the Central Bank of Nigeria in Lagos-based
infrastructure investor the African Finance Corporation South Sudan 7.708 0.222 0.470
along with other African (mainly Nigerian) financial Tanzania 157.643 205.586 411.946
institutions and corporate investors. Senegal’s
Togo 6.342 1.559 11.372
infrastructure finance system is now operated through the
newly established Fonds Souverain d’Investissements Uganda 318.425 367.315 374.751
Stratégiques (Fonsis).
Zimbabwe 40.864 15.746 13.646
There is considerable scope for international institutions
Total 2,880.840 5,103.008 4,980.946
to extend the charting, tracking and analysis of

AEEP | 47
European Contribution

future activity by the Partnership, as African infrastructure EU member statesÕ commitments to the
financing becomes established as an asset class, and local African energy sector, 2010Ð14
financial markets become deeper, allowing more African 6,000
citizens and foreign funds to invest. Total:
5,595
m 2,182
euros
European contributions to funding
African energy projects 5,000
The 28 EU Member States make substantial direct
commitments to Africa’s energy sector, on average over
the five years to 2014 providing €1.7bn annually in Indirect funding via WBG
concessional and non-concessional financing. Additionally,
Indirect funding via AfDB
the EU has a strong and wide-ranging partnership with
4,000 Direct funding
the WBG and AfDB, as do a range of EU institutions,
including the EC, European Council, European Parliament 3,596
and EIB. 351
624
The Member States are major shareholders and partners in
282
the work of the WBG, accounting for nearly one-third of 3,000
shares in the International Bank for Reconstruction and 2,765 2,963
Development (IBRD) and half of contributions to the soft- 2,789 623
lending International Development Association (IDA).

EU institutions and member states provided 52.9% of

paid-in contributions to the IBRD from 2006 to February 516
2,000
2015. If this percentage is taken as being indicative of the
percentage Europeans have indirectly contributed to the 1,563
1,464 1,626
WBG’s African energy commitments, then their 257
542
contribution, on average over the five years to 2014, has 319
been an annual €791m.
1,000
987
European contributions to the AfDB are also substantial. 714

EU Member States contributed 59.8% of pledges to the

twelfth and thirteenth replenishments of the soft-lending
African Development Fund, which provides the substantial
208
amount of funds administered by the bank in the period 0
2011-16. If this percentage is applied to the AfDB’s 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
commitments to the African energy sector, then member
States average support peaked in the AEEP baseline year
states have contributed, on average in the period 2010-14,
2010, at around €5.5bn. This was a very exceptional year
an annual €491m.
that included several billion euro-plus commitments in
Based on these calculations, direct AfDB and WBG North and East Africa and Mozambique, including the
funding, and ‘indirect’ funding based on EU Member €10.4bn Eskom Investment Support Project.

48 | AEEP
Targets to 2020 and Beyond
This Status Report Update gives strong pointers to the
progress and problems experienced in meeting the Africa-
EU Energy Partnership’s 2020 Political Targets. Some
developments have been exceptional since the Partnership
was created – for example, the amount of solar capacity
that has been installed, which is already much greater
than envisaged when the AEEP was created at the Lisbon
summit in 2007. The scale of international concern about
the need to seriously tackle energy poverty in Africa is
much greater than when African and European leaders
first highlighted this global-scale problem.
The AEEP has been a pioneer in proposing policy directions
and targets to overcome energy poverty, improve
efficiency and underpin domestic and cross-border energy
security in Africa and Europe. Now approaching its second
decade, the AEEP has been instrumental in shaping the
approach of global initiatives like the United Nations-led
Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which have understood
the need to collect and collate more accurate data that can
inform the campaign to end energy poverty.
Through initiatives such as operationalising the AEEP
Monitoring Tool – and its Africa Power Project Database,
which now contains information on more than 3,250
operating and planned generation plants, plus electricity
interconnections and other data – the Partnership has
shown a steely commitment to establishing a strong
empirical basis for understanding trends and tackling
problems. In this approach, the Partnership – piloted by
the AEEP Secretariat, as mandated by its member
governments and co-chairs – has shown a refreshing
capacity to be critical about data and policy. AEEP
stakeholders generally agree that only by encouraging
critical dialogue can Africa and Europe move forward.
The Lisbon 2020 Political Targets set the initial phase of
work, providing goals that Africa and Europe should aspire
to meet, and mandating the new Partnership to monitor
those benchmarks. This Status Report Update continues
that work in a spirit that typifies the AEEP – intended as a
basis for further discussion, which is likely to focus on
several areas.
Extending the targets
Following nearly a decade of growth in the African energy
industries, it is relevant to ask whether the AEEP’s political
targets are still appropriate, both numerically and
chronologically. The AEEP Power Project Database suggests
that some targets could be reached already, while many –
but not all – will be exceeded by 2020.
Some AEEP stakeholders argue that it may be appropriate
to ask if the timeframe for the Political Targets should be
extended. There are two main reasons for this. 2020 is fast
approaching, and a decision to extend the deadline would
allow for more rational planning of research and projects,
for example allowing the AEEP Monitoring Tool databases
to incorporate project projections that go beyond the
current cut-off. A new target date would enable a wider
coordination of programmes into the next decade.
It should also be considered that a number of more recent,
complementary initiatives – including SE4All, which has
strong support from the African Union and European
Commission, and lately the African Renewable Energy
Initiative – have taken 2030 as their target date. So have
the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), which are intended as a baseline for harmonising
global action to tackle poverty, and will have an impact on
energy, climate change mitigation and related sectors.
Harmonising efforts
Efforts to harmonise the growing number of international
African energy-focused initiatives – a process in which the
AEEP is playing a leading role – suggest that more should
be done to avoid duplicating effort by encouraging
cooperation in data-gathering and policy-making.
While the AEEP Monitoring Tool has established a niche in
tracking generation projects, the AEEP Secretariat has
adopted data gathered in the SE4All Global Tracking
Framework for access and efficiency indicators. The SE4All
database contains estimates of access to electricity and
non-solid fuel for cooking, energy intensity and electricity
transmission and distribution losses for all but a handful
of African countries. AEEP stakeholders are already
working with SE4All and the GTF process.
In the questioning spirit that typifies the AEEP,
stakeholders have long discussed whether these – and
other – indicators are appropriate measures for the
partnership to be working with. Should, for example,
energy industries’ contribution to create jobs or other
critical social issues be adopted as benchmarks? Such has
been the AEEP’s role in providing critical leadership in its
core areas of interest, that such questions are not only
appropriate, but should be asked.
AEEP | 49
Imprint

Published by Design & Layout

Cross-border Information
European Union Energy Initiative
Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF) Photos
Front cover – KfW/photothek.net; Page 9 – KfW/Ausloeser
Photographie; Page 11 – KfW/Ausloeser Photographie;
Page 16 – KfW/photothek.net; Page 18 – Jon Marks; Page
28 – KfW/photothek.net; Page 22 – iStock photo; Page
c/o Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale 23 – iStock photo; Page 35 – KfW/JG Lopata; Page 46 –
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH iStock photo; Back cover – KfW/Rendel Freude
Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5, The Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF) is an
65760 Eschborn, instrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI). It is currently
Germany funded and receives contribution from Austria, the
www.euei-pdf.org/aeep European Commission, Finland, Italy, Germany, the
aeep@euei-pdf.org Netherlands and Sweden. The EUEI PDF acts as the
Eschborn, May 2016 Secretariat of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership.

Editors
David Otieno and Hadley Taylor (AEEP Secretariat)

Report prepared by
Jon Marks (lead author), David Burles (maps and graphics)
Mark Ford, Dan Marks, David Slater
Cross-border Information,
www.crossborderinformation.com
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one of
the initial eight partnerships under the Joint Africa-EU
Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for cooperation
between the two continents. The African Union
Commission, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt, the European
Commission, Germany, Italy are the Steering Group
members providing political guidance to the Partnership.

AEEP Steering Group

50 | AEEP
The Africa-EU Energy Partnership (AEEP) constitutes one of increase access
The AEEP’s overall objective is to improve the to
the initial eight partnerships created under the Joint effectiveness
reliable, of affordable
secure, efforts to secure reliable and
and sustainable sustainable
energy
Africa-EU Strategy (JAES), a long-term framework for co- energy services
services for bothand extend their
continents, withaccess
the aimonof
both
achieving the
operation between the two continents. Africa and Europe continents, with
Millennium the aim of
Development achieving
Goals the The
in Africa. Sustainable
AEEP’s
work together through the AEEP to develop a shared Development
efforts Goalson
are focused inmeeting
Africa. The AEEP’s
a series ofefforts are
concrete,
vision, common policy approaches and actions. focused and
realistic on meeting a seriesby
visible targets of2020,
concrete, realistic
as agreed byand
the
visible targetsFirst
Partnership’s by 2020, as agreed
High Level by the
Meeting, Partnership’s
held in Vienna on
Six Steering Group members – who now comprise the
First High
14–15 Level Meeting,
September 2010, andheld in September
developed 2010, and
through
African Union Commission, the Common Market for
developed through
subsequent actions subsequent
and meetings actions
since.and meetings.
Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat, Egypt,
the European Commission, Germany and Italy – provide This report’s aim is to provide an update of the AEEP’s
political guidance to the Partnership. The AEEP Secretariat benchmarks and to monitor progress in achieving the
is hosted by the Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF), Partnership’s goals, while also pointing to directions for
which is an instrument of the EU Energy Initiative (EUEI). continued action.