Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific
Region After Secretary of
Defense James Mattis
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 29, 2018
Regarding Defense Secretary James Mattis’ decision to leave the Pentagon, we are
interested in your assessment on United States policy towards Vietnam and the
South China Sea in the new context (pojst-Mattis era)?

Question 1: What do you expect from Patrick Shanahan, Mattis’ successor?
ANSWER: When Patrick Shanahan assumes the post of Acting Secretary of Defense
on January 1, 2019 he will be a placeholder until President Donald Trump nominates
a permanent replacement. Shanahan came to office as the thirty-third Deputy
Secretary of Defense with no military or foreign policy experience. He was chosen
because of his three decades of expertise in managing budgets and supply side
procurements with Boeing.
Shanahan has attended Cabinet meetings when Secretary James Mattis was
overseas. Observers note that he rarely ventured a comment or expressed any views
on policy. By his own admission he was a “down and in” administration, meaning
that he worked within the Department of Defense to administer and oversee
programs.
Shanahan will take advice from Defense Department officials and experts on how to
run the Pentagon but he is unlikely to advance any new policies or initiatives.
Shanahan will comply with what President Trump wants and is unlikely to offer a
contrary view. When Trump announced his plan to create a Space Force, Shanahan
told senior Pentagon officials, “We are not the Department of No.”
Question 2: Will there be any adjustment in U.S. policy towards the South China Sea
after Secretary Mattis leaves the Defense Department? The media reports that in the
absence of Mattis “hawkish” policies advocated by National Security Advisor John
Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will face less resistance.
ANSWER: Shanahan will follow the policies in the U.S. National Security Strategy and
the U.S. National Defense Strategy adopted in late 2017 and early 2018, respectively.
President Trump approved the Pentagon’s plan for an annual program of Freedom of
Navigation Operational Patrols (FONOP) in May 2017. The pace and scope of
FONOPs will continue. It is noticeable that this month Randy Schriver, Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs, called on Australia and other allies,
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Canada, France and the United Kingdom, to increase their naval patrols in the South
China Sea.
Question 3: By withdrawing troops from Syria and Afghanistan, the US seems to end
its presence in the Middle East. The situation is somewhat similar to Vietnam in
1972. Then the US’ decision to leave Vietnam was a part of its policy of focusing on
countering the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This shift in strategic focus led to
the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Now, I wonder if leaving Middle East has to do with a scenario, in which the US
would shift its power to the South China Sea and China. And at least, is Middle East
decision has anything to do with the Indo – Pacific Strategy?
ANSWER: President Donald Trump for decades has argued against American military
commitments abroad on the ground of cost, allies were taking advantage of the
United States, and the countries of concern were not important strategically. Trump
has ordered U.S. military forces out of Syria but has not yet announced his reported
decision to cut back on U.S. forces in Afghanistan. This month he said U.S. forces in
Iraq could intervene in Syria if there was resurgence by the Islamic State.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria was not part of a strategy to pivot to the
Indo-Pacific. In fact, Trump’s actions have undermined the credibility of the United
States to support allies and partners globally.
Question 4: Under the Trump presidency, it is the first time that we see US allies
simultaneously stand up directly to condemn the Chinese government over
accusations of hacking. Are we witnessing a shift from the digital world to a “real”
battlefield?
Is it likely that the Five Eyes intelligence community will evolve into an anti-China
alliance/coalition? What role will the Quad play? Will a new strategy emerge among
coalition partners to counter China in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: The Five Eyes is an expression used to describe the highest level of
intelligence cooperation and integration among five countries – the United States,
United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. All are treaty allies. The UK and
Canada are part of NATO; while Australia has a separate security treaty with the U.S.
The U.S. suspended its treaty commitments to New Zealand in the mid-1980s. Quite
clearly the five countries are countering China in one way or another, particularly in
cyber space. Australia, the UK, and Canada all conduct naval presence patrols in the
South China Sea. In other words, there is a de facto anti-China coalition but their
willingness to counter China is limited. None of these countries has joined the U.S. to
conduct joint FONOPs or naval presence patrols in the South China Sea.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Forum is a talk shop that India insists be led by
officials from their respective foreign ministries, rather than defense officials.
The most significant development for 2019 will come when President Trump signs
the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) of 2018. ARIA is a bipartisan Bill that was
approved by both houses of Congress. When it is signed by Trump it will become
law.
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ARIA sets out U.S. policy and strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. One of its eight
major objectives is “to conduct regular bilateral and multilateral engagements,
particularly with the United States’ most highly-capable allies and partners, to meet
strategic challenges…“ such as destabilizing activities by China and North Korea’s
nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”
ARIA identifies China’s illegal construction and militarization of artificial features in
the South China Sea and coercive economic practices as one of the three major
security challenges to the “United States-backed international system.”

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific Region After
Secretary of Defense James Mattis,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief,
December 29, 2018. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for
Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject
heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.