Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 10/27/2017 at 10:54 PM

Simulation stopped on 10/27/2017 at 10:54 PM

Run preferences:
Number of trials run 2,000
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level 95.00%

Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 0.25
Trials/second (average) 7,874
Random numbers per sec 23,621

Crystal Ball data:

Assumptions 3
Correlations 0
Correlation matrices 0
Decision variables 0
Forecasts 1

Forecasts

Cell
Forecast: Highest Amt : I12

Summary:
Certainty level is 60.28%
Certainty range is from 949,200.00 to ∞
Entire range is from 857,398.85 to 1,066,731.48
Base case is 949,200.00
After 2,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 721.32
 Cell
Forecast: Highest Amt (cont'd) : I12

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 2,000
Base Case 949,200.00
Mean 957,334.13
Median 957,444.40
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 32,258.29
1,040,597,477.3
Variance 9
Skewness -0.0555
Kurtosis 2.88
Coeff. of Variation 0.0337
Minimum 857,398.85
Maximum 1,066,731.48
Range Width 209,332.63
Mean Std. Error 721.32

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% 857,398.85
10% 916,200.59
20% 929,358.13
30% 940,658.54
40% 949,773.25
50% 957,414.28
60% 965,137.80
70% 974,658.43
80% 984,813.26
90% 1,000,148.49
100% 1,066,731.48

End of Forecasts

Assumptions

Cell
Assumption: G8 : G8

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 20.00 (=J22)
Std. Dev. 101.18 (=J23)
 Cell
: G9
Assumption: G9

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 19.00 (=K22)
Std. Dev. 244.00 (=K23)

Cell
Assumption: Price Change One Month Later : G7

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 28.00 (=I22)
Std. Dev. 187.00 (=I23)

End of Assumptions