"Closing remarks"

by
Manuel Collares Pereira (Co-Chairman)
on the occasion of the IVth ASPO meeting, in Lisbon, 19-20, May, 2005

For these last two days we have been discussing the concept and the consequences of
Peak Oil and Gas.

There are still many uncertainties, but I think there is at least one thing that we will
not argue about and that is the fact that, in spite of possible price fluctuations
(unavoidable ups and downs resulting from "business as usual"), the cost of oil will
tend to rise on average, i.e. we are at the dawn of the era of "the end of cheap oil", or
should we rather say, the era of "the end of cheap energy".

This will induce a shift towards the use of many other primary energy sources and
energy vectors.

That, in turn, will probably (I should say hopefully) help us understanding that we
should start thinking of reserving oil for other "more noble" purposes like using it for
longer as raw material for the chemical industry (plastics, etc.) rather than just
simply burning it...

As an academic, when I look at the many possible alternatives, I feel the urge to place
a strong word in favor of the importance of more and new R&D. We must improve on
existing concepts and solutions, find new ones, develop new materials and the new
energy vectors.

R&D on Energy related matters should be high on any Government's list of priorities.
Energy and Environment : we are still not quite there yet in terms of having made the
necessary efforts to pull us from the present situation to the one we need in order to
have a truly sustainable and balanced future for all people on Earth.

In particular R&D in Energy should also be made in areas other than the electricity
area, where most efforts and political attention have been and are concentrated upon.
After all, in terms of final energy, in a country like Portugal, electricity is only 20% of
the total final energy, a figure also found in many other countries. So, true impact
means addressing the problems behind having alternatives for thermal final and useful
forms of energy and their applications (in buildings, in industry, etc.) and the
production of power for transportation. Also it means to investigate and ameliorate
technologies to avoid conventional energy use, rational use of energy issues, energy
efficiency, recycling , wastes minimization, etc. This represents a much broader scope
than the one usually connected to conventional energy(=electricity) R&D programs
and its potential impact addresses directly the needs of the remaining (!) 80% final
energy use.

I conclude these short closing remarks by thanking you all for being such a wonderful
audience, and, in particular, for your patience with all the inconveniences that might
have been caused by our less than efficient organization of this event. We thought
about everything with the best that our minds were capable of, but, let me assure, with
also with the best of our hearts.
I wish you all a safe trip back home , addressing my final word of thanks to the
Gulbenkian Foundation and to the Company Partex, for hosting this event and for so
thoroughly helping us making it a success.