2019
“More than ever before, migration touches all states and
people in an era of deepening globalization.”
United Nations
World Migration Report 2018
CONTENTS
This report and the individual contributions contained in it LORRAINE CHARLES PROF. FLORIAN TRAUNER
are protected under copyright. No part of this report may Research Associate at the Centre for Business Jean Monnet Chair at the Institute for
be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any form or by any Research at the University of Cambridge European Studies and a Visiting Professor at
means without prior written permission. the College of Europe
The H&P monogram and Henley & Partners are among the
registered and unregistered trademarks of Henley & Partners DR . M ARINA SOROKA DR. DIEGO ACOSTA
Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved. Independent scholar and published author Leading expert on global and comparative
whose field of expertise is the history of migration law and Associate Professor in
This report is provided for general information purposes only European international relations Migration Law at the University of Bristol
and can in no way substitute legal or other professional advice.
While the publisher and authors have undertaken great care
DOMINIC VOLEK UĞUR ALTUNDAL
in preparing this report, they cannot guarantee its correctness
Managing Partner, a Member of the Researcher in political science at Syracuse
and completeness and make no representation or warranties
Management Board, and Head of Southeast University
with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents
Asia at Henley & Partners
of this report.
Any comments and suggestions, praise and criticism will be ÖMER ZARPLI MONIQUE JEANNE MORROW
gratefully received. If you feel that a particular topic should be Researcher in political science at the President and Co-Founder of The Humanized
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on henleyglobal.com
7
Part 1
Wealth and talent will go where they are wanted and stay where they Uncertainty was a key factor for highly educated and highly skilled migrants
are well treated. Today that adage — attributed to legendary banker in 2018, and it will remain so in 2019. A major destination country, the
Walter Wriston — is truer than ever. Some 95,000 high-net-worth UK, is still involved in negotiations regarding its status after 29 March
individuals migrated in 2017 (the latest year for which data is available), 2019 — the date that will (or ought to) mark its exit from the EU.
up from 82,000 in 2016 and 64,000 the year before — ample evidence
The future status of EU nationals in the UK is still In other cases, however, mobility opportunities
that the migration of wealth around the globe continues to accelerate. unclear, and the attractiveness of this destination for are actually being reduced. The US Citizens
talented individuals could substantially deteriorate; and Immigration Services decided in 2018 to While highly
There are an estimated 18.2 million high-net- Flows go both ways, however, and there has been
indeed, net migration flows from the EU to the UK limit the availability of premium (that is, fast- educated and
worth individuals on the planet (defined as a noticeable and significant increase in appetite
Wealthy individuals have plummeted over the past two years. track) petitions-processing for H-1B visas, highly skilled
those with assets of at least USD 1 million), among wealthy individuals in both Europe and
tend to have the which (in exchange for an additional fee) allows individuals may
and their collective wealth has now surpassed the US for access to residence- and citizenship-
skills, knowledge, British academic institutions fear a decline in their applications to be dealt with within two weeks. feel pushed out of
the USD 70 trillion mark. That number also by-investment programs in other nations — a
capacity — and ability to recruit scholars, given the loss of access This change will make life harder for H-1B visa traditional migration
continues to grow and is projected to exceed trend that is set to increase. More broadly, overall
capital — that to EU sources of funding — such as European holders seeking to accept job offers from alternate destinations, they
USD 100 trillion by 2025. The migration of demand for a second passport continued to grow
can increase an Research Council (ERC) grants — that have employers, as it leaves them unsure about whether are receiving a very
these individuals is particularly beneficial for in 2018: more than a third of global ultra-high-
economy’s overall traditionally represented a lifeline for them in a their new position will allow them to maintain warm welcome in
the nations they move to. Nearly half of the net-worth individuals (those with a net worth
wealth and standard context of declining funding from national sources. their visa status. other parts of world.
17 countries that saw the biggest percentage exceeding USD 30 million) already hold one, and
of living. (Scholars based in the UK obtained almost 20% of
increases in wealth from 2016 to 2017 were another 29% are planning to obtain one.
all the 4,202 ERC grants allocated between 2007 As with the UK, uncertainty will in this case act
assisted by inflows of wealthy people.
95,000 and 2018.) Similarly, London’s finance sector as a brake on mobility. Because the new policy
In addition to the larger economies taking in 82,000
64,000 could lose a substantial part of its appeal, and other ties talented foreign workers more closely to
China, India, Turkey, and the UK saw the biggest wealthy individuals, several smaller nations —
European countries (notably, France, Germany, and their initial employer, it could indirectly reduce
outflows of such individuals in 2017. Safety, Cyprus, Malta, Mauritius, Monaco, and Portugal 2015 2016 2017
Ireland) could decide to strengthen policy measures the attractiveness of the US labor market for
financial stability, high taxes, and religious or among them — also saw significant wealth inflows Number of HNWIs migrating
per year to attract financial sector workers. these individuals.
political tensions are a few of the factors driving in 2017. Several of these nations are benefiting
these wealthy citizens abroad. According to the from residence- and citizenship-by-investment
A substantial part of the prevailing uncertainty The increasingly lengthy and uncertain Intense competition to attract
2017 Knight Frank Wealth Report, demand for programs. Malta, for example, saw a 12% increase
relates to whether other countries will decide to processing time for H-1B visa petitions in the the best and the brightest will
new nationalities is highest from China, Russia, in its ultra-wealthy population in 2016, primarily be a likely outcome of Brexit
engage in a competition to grab the ‘low-hanging US stands in contrast to the measures that
and the Middle East, with around four-fifths of due to its citizenship-by-investment program.
fruit’ represented by those talented migrants who China, for example, is currently trying to
visas under the US EB-5 residence-by-investment
are reconsidering their decision to move to (or to implement. The country’s newly introduced
program going to Chinese nationals. Such programs account for about one in five
remain in) the UK, either through fiscal incentives China Talent (R) Visa program is characterized Sources:
wealthy individual migrations, though this Anderson, Stuart. 2018. ‘Who
The percentage of UHNWIs or by increasing their ability to recruit scholars by the complete absence of application fees and
Millionaires looking for residence or citizenship number excludes individuals who gain citizenship who hold a second passport or
Will Be Hurt by the Latest
plan to obtain one
beyond the standard national procedures. is expected to allow applications submitted by USCIS Decision on H-1B Visas?’
in alternative jurisdictions are seeking better in a second country but do not take residence, as Forbes. 5 September 2018.
talented foreign workers to be processed within
schools, lower crime rates, and more abundant well as those who move globally among several ‘EU Financial Centres Vie to
The lack of coordination of immigration policies a few working days. Poach Tens of Thousands of
business opportunities. They are finding these residences. Including such individuals would Sources:
City Jobs’. 2017. The Guardian.
Capgemini. 2018. World Wealth among EU member states — as well as the limited
conditions in nations such as Australia, the US, show an even larger impact on global wealth 3 April 2017.
Report 2018. nature of outreach efforts to attract skilled In short, while highly educated and highly skilled
and Canada, which topped the list of wealthy trends from the investment migration industry. ‘Figures on the EU Blue
Karlgaard, Rich. 2009.
immigrants, such as the so-called EU Blue Card, individuals may feel pushed out of traditional Card’. 2016. Federal Office
individual inflows in 2017. In the case of Britain, ‘Wriston’s Law Still Holds’. for Migration and Refugees
Forbes. 6 August 2009. which closely resembles a German-only policy migration destinations, they are receiving a very (Germany). 30 November 2016.
Brexit and the concerns associated with it have Wealth is clearly on the move globally, now more
Knight Frank Research. 2018. instrument — suggests that intense competition warm welcome in other parts of world, where ‘Immigration Worries Drove
slightly reversed the flow of wealthy individuals in than ever. Wealthy individuals tend to have the The Wealth Report: The Global the Brexit Vote. Then Attitudes
Perspective on Prime Property to attract the best and the brightest will be a likely economic and career opportunities might one day
recent years, although the UK Tier 1 Investor Visa skills, knowledge, capacity — and capital — that and Investment. 12th Edition.
Changed’. 2018. The Washington
outcome of Brexit. Such an outcome could improve even eclipse those offered by countries such as the Post. 16 November 2018.
Program remained popular until its temporary can increase an economy’s overall wealth and New World Wealth. 2018.
Global Wealth Migration Review.
mobility opportunities for highly educated and UK and US. Junlu, Jiang and Liu Chang
suspension in December 2018. standard of living. Attracting and keeping them King. 2018. ‘New Rules on the
Wealth-X. 2018. The World highly talented individuals. R Visa’. China Law Insight. 16
are critical to nations seeking those outcomes.
Ultra Wealth Report 2018. January 2018.
10 11
FORCED MIGRATION CLIMATE MIGRATION
In attempting to communicate the scale and severity of the global forced The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Global Warming
displacement crisis, numbers and statistics are the most obvious place of 1.5°C report estimates that global temperatures are 1.0°C above
to begin. We know that, worldwide, there are currently more than 68.5 pre-industrial levels, while warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between
million people who have been forcibly displaced by war and internal 2030 and 2052.
conflict — slightly more than the population of the UK, and slightly less
Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum’s that countries adopt the following measures:
than the population of Thailand. Global Risks Report 2018 identifies the following implement legislation, policies, and strategies
top nine global risks, in descending order: to avert, minimize, and address displacement, Estimates about
According to a report released by the UN Refugee to spend your entire adult life in a camp and to see the scale of climate
weapons of mass destruction; extreme weather taking human rights into consideration; map,
Agency (UNHCR), 40 million of those people your imaginative horizons diminishing. They give displacement vary
Because of conflict, events; natural disasters; failure of climate understand, and manage human mobility;
are internally displaced, while 28.5 million of us no real understanding of what it feels like to leave from 25 million
persecution, or change mitigation and adaptation; water crises; strengthen preparedness, including early
them have fled their countries. Half of those a country of first asylum, where merely surviving people at the
generalized violence, cyber-attacks; food crises; biodiversity loss and warning systems, contingency planning,
28.5 million people are children. Excluding those is difficult, and embark on a second migration, a conservative end,
31 people are forced ecosystem collapse; and large-scale involuntary evacuation planning, and resilience building;
defined as long-term Palestinian refugees, over journey that will leave home even further behind. to 1 billion in the
to leave their homes migration. Seven are likely to be influenced by integrate human mobility into national planning
two-thirds come from five countries in the world: middle, to 2 billion
every single minute climate change, which, combined with other processes; protect internally displaced persons;
Somalia, Myanmar, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Finally, and perhaps most importantly, they tell at the high end.
of every single day. drivers, already results in climate migration. and facilitate the orderly, safe, and responsible
and Syria. 85% of all forcibly displaced people are us nothing about hope. Not the illusory hope
migration and mobility of people, by enhancing
being hosted in developing countries such as Iran, offered by empty bromides about the resilience
25.4 million 3.1 million However, climate change is also causing forcible opportunities for regular migration pathways.
Lebanon, Pakistan, Uganda, and Turkey. of the human spirit, but the real hope created by refugees asylum seekers
displacement following extreme weather events
meaningful international partnerships, innovation,
(such as cyclones) or slow-onset events (such as Meanwhile, the UN Global Compact for
This last statistic is perhaps especially noteworthy, and constant adaptation. Since 2016, the UN has
drought or sea-level rise). Climate migration or Migration, including climate-induced migration,
given the occasionally disproportionate attention been appealing to governments, the private sector, 68.5 displacement may be temporary or permanent, aims to mitigate the factors that hinder people
Extreme weather events (such as
cyclones) and slow-onset events
paid to developed countries’ response to the and civil society to join hands in a global effort million*
and internal or across borders. The 2016 Global from building and maintaining sustainable (such as rising sea levels) are
forced displacement crisis. Every one of the to develop a coordinated approach to migration. causing forced displacement
Report on Internal Displacement found that, livelihoods in their countries of origin; reduce
figures surrounding this crisis has the capacity to On 10 December 2018, the Global Compact for
worldwide, there are twice as many people the risks that migrants face, by protecting their
stop us in our tracks, however: 727,000 Rohingya
refugees driven from Myanmar into Bangladesh
Migration — the first international agreement on
the movement of people — was finally signed by
40 million
internally displaced displaced internally as across borders. human rights; and create conditions that enable
migrants to enrich society through their human,
200%
*Total number of forcibly
in 100 days; 2.8 million children displaced within 164 nations. displaced people worldwide
The percentage of
But are people who cross borders ‘climate economic, and social capacities.
Syria. Among other things, these figures show people displaced
refugees’? A refugee is defined under the 1951
that we are living through a displacement crisis The private sector plays an increasingly prominent internally compared
Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees 2018 was an important year in terms of
for which there is no precedent. role in offering creative solutions to the refugee to across borders
50% as a person who has a well-founded fear of international recognition for the plight of CDPs.
crisis. In 2015, for instance, entrepreneur Hamdi
being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, The recommendations of both the Task Force Sources:
Because of conflict, persecution, or generalized Ulukaya spearheaded a collaboration among 100 The percentage of the global
refugee and asylum seeker nationality, membership in a particular social on Displacement and the UN Global Compact Bodansky, Daniel, Jutta
violence, 31 people are forced to leave their homes international brands in offering employment to population comprised by Brunnee, and Lavanya
group, or political opinion. Consequently, the should result in far better protections for them Rajamani. 2017. International
every minute of every day. It is critical to take note over 200,000 refugees. Technology, too, is playing children
Climate Change Law. Oxford:
International Organization for Migration’s in the future.
of these sobering figures, but it is equally critical to an instrumental role. From the employment of Oxford University Press.
Sources:
term ‘climate-displaced persons’ (CDPs) is Intergovernmental Panel on
bear in mind that numbers and statistics can only refugees within the digital industry, to training Climate Change. 2018. Global
UNHCR. 2016. ‘Global Trends: now preferred. Warming of 1.5°C.
ever provide a partial insight into what forcibly programs in coding schools, to the stunning Forced Displacement in 2015’.
World Economic Forum. 2018.
displaced people face, and into what they overcome. efforts to digitize personal documentation through 20 June 2016. Global Risks Report 2018:
UNHCR. 2016. ‘Internally
Estimates about the scale of climate displacement 13th Edition.
blockchain applications, we are witnessing
Displaced People’. 7 July 2016. vary from “25 million at the conservative Internal Displacement
For instance, none of these figures tell us what it is remarkable examples of how humanitarian efforts UNHCR. 2017. ‘100 Days of Monitoring Centre. 2016.
end, to 1 billion in the middle, and 2 billion Global Report on Internal
like to come to the painful conclusion that you have are changing to meet the complex demands of Horror and Hope: A Timeline
Displacement.
of the Rohingya Crisis’. 5 at the high end”. To better protect CDPs,
run out of options, and that there is nothing left to the 21st century. As long as we are willing to do December 2017. International Organization
the Task Force on Displacement, mandated for Migration. 2008. ‘Climate
do but leave your home, your town, or even your what we can to expand our understanding, there UNHCR. 2018. ‘Global Trends: Change and Migration:
Forced Displacement in 2017’. under the Paris Agreement, has recommended Improving Methodologies to
country. They tell us nothing about what it is like is always hope.
25 June 2018. Estimate Flows’.
12 13
Part 2
For both economic and personal reasons, migration is an appealing In Asia Pacific, international migration and mobility have become
prospect for some Caribbean citizens. Intra-Caribbean and international increasingly more complex, dynamic, and diverse, shaping the
migration remain pronounced features of Caribbean migration patterns. overall social, economic, and demographic conditions in the region.
Intra-Caribbean migrants are those nationals who travel from their The UN estimated in 2017 that there were 80 million international
countries to others within the Caribbean region for employment purposes. migrants in the countries and areas comprising Asia Pacific.
An important example of this form of the US and Canada on these countries’ guest International migration has strengthened labor These irregular migration flows are characterized
migration involves the movement of Cuban worker schemes. These migrants obtain seasonal market mobility, remittances, and trade across by mixed legal migration issues (visa overstays,
doctors and nurses to Anglophone Caribbean employment in the US and Canada as hotel Intra-Caribbean and Asia Pacific. For example, the Philippines has cross-border movement) and they are also, to a
International
states, where they work in hospitals in these and agricultural workers. Similarly, university international short- obtained USD 33 billion in remittances from certain extent, facilitated by global smugglers.
migration has not
countries. Cuba–Caribbean health agreements students from Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, stay migration will migrants, while other countries in the region Irregular migration flows in Asia Pacific have
only helped stabilize
support intra-Caribbean labor force migration and Barbados have also obtained summer probably remain — including China (USD 64 billion), Pakistan contributed to the rising number of migrants
economic growth in
by minimizing the shortage of health care employment in the US through work and study stable in 2019, but (USD 20 billion), and India (USD 69 billion) in detention and deportation centers across
Asia Pacific but also
professionals in the region. programs, where their services are utilized in the return migration — have likewise received remittances that have the region and pose bilateral and multilateral
enabled many labor-
food industry. may be hampered by been vital to their economies. challenges for governments seeking more effective
sending countries
International migration has negatively impacted economic and safety and humane migration-governance responses.
to sustain strong
the pool of doctors and nurses in the Caribbean The UK and the US have also provided concerns in the Due to the economic contribution of migration
economic growth,
region. Some doctors and nurses from Jamaica, scholarship opportunities to students from the region. to development, countries such as Pakistan, Refugees and displaced citizens also play an
even in times of
Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago have opted English-speaking Caribbean through the UK India, and Sri Lanka have strategically invested important role in Asia Pacific migration —
crisis.
to exploit opportunities in developed countries Commonwealth, Chevening, and Fulbright in skills training and qualification programs Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran alone 20
— namely, the US, the UK, and Canada — scholarship programs. These annual scholarship for workers seeking employment elsewhere host 2.7 million Afghan refugees — but many Pakistan
1,470
because health care facilities in these countries opportunities are popular avenues through which in Asia Pacific or the Gulf, in a bid to enhance countries in Asia Pacific have still not ratified 33
are equipped with modernized technologies, and people from the Caribbean enter those countries these workers’ productivity and wages. Overall, the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of The Philippines
compensation packages are better. as short-stay migrants for academic purposes. international migration has not only helped Refugees. Existing resettlement programs in 64
The number of
stabilize economic growth in Asia Pacific but also the US, Australia, and European countries have China
Jamaicans who have 69
Further, demographic factors and developed Another trend in the region is that of return enabled many labor-sending South and Southeast proved extremely limited. Moreover, more and
obtained Canadian India
countries’ policies have facilitated the migration migration. Short-stay migrants normally return to Asian countries to sustain strong economic more second-generation migrants find themselves
residence through Total remittances received
of citizens from the Caribbean region. For their countries once their seasonal employment growth, even in times of crisis. with an irregular status (having no national
the Express Entry from migrants working abroad
example, Canada’s aging population and the or scholarships end. Additionally, some identity or international travel documents), which (in USD billion)
program
increased demand for state spending on senior- Caribbean migrants who have been naturalized Low-skilled temporary migration has become poses the risk of their potential statelessness.
Sources:
related programs, coupled with reduced tax as citizens in developed countries have returned an essential feature of the Asia Pacific region. ASEAN Secretariat. 2016.
revenues, have factored into the government’s to their countries of birth to retire. In Jamaica, In fact, international migratory paths to Brunei While international migration in Asia Pacific ‘ASEAN Consensus on the
Protection and Promotion of the
decision to extend Canada’s immigration through a special program has been established to assist Darussalam, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, has produced ongoing policy challenges, it Rights of Migrant Workers’.
Sources:
the Express Entry program. Immigration, returning residents with their resettlement. Singapore, and Thailand mainly involve low- has also generated multiple opportunities for Colombo Process. 2018.
Latin American and Caribbean ‘The Pilot Project on Skill
Refugees, and Citizenship Canada — the Regional Preparatory Meeting skilled, single migrants working predominantly governments to deepen diplomatic relations and Development, Certification,
immigration department of the Government of The 2019 outlook for the Caribbean region of International Migration in highly segmented low-skill or low-status address migration issues. The current ASEAN Upgrading, and Recognition’.
Experts on the Global
Canada — has reported that, between January is that migration in all its forms is likely to Compact for Safe, Orderly, jobs that are often masculinized (for example, Consensus on the Protection and Promotion of International Organization for
and Regular Migration. 2017. Migration. 2017. ‘Asia and the
2015 and May 2018, 1,470 Jamaicans obtained continue. Intra-Caribbean and international Santiago de Chile. 30–31
construction) and feminized (for example, Migrant Workers was signed in 2017 to deal with Pacific’.
Canadian permanent residence by applying to short-stay migration will probably remain stable, August 2017. domestic work and nursing). migration governance and protection issues. The Refugee Council. 2018. ‘Refugee
Protection in the Asia-Pacific’.
this program. but the resettlement of retirees through return Thompson, Kimon. 2018. ongoing Colombo Process pilot initiatives in skills
‘Jamaicans Flocking to UN DESA. 2017. International
migration may be hampered by economic and Canada’. The Jamaica Irregular migration remains a major dimension recognition and certification, recruitment, and Migration Report.
Short-stay international migration continues to safety concerns in the region. Observer. 10 September 2018. of migration in Asia Pacific, which hosts the migration technology have guided governments in World Bank. 2018. ‘Migration
‘35 Trained Cuban Doctors and Remittances: Recent
be a major trend among residents of Caribbean Assigned to SERHA’. 2013.
world’s largest flow of undocumented migrants, addressing labor violations in origin, transit, and Developments and Outlook’.
countries. Some Jamaicans have travelled to The Jamaica Observer. 12 who mostly originate from neighboring countries. destination countries within the region. Migration and Development
September 2013. Brief 29.
16 17
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Conflict-induced forced migration has long defined population Migration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has
movement in Sub-Saharan Africa, and this remained the case in long been dominated by regional conflicts and their attendant refugee
2018. Ongoing intra-state conflict in Cameroon, the Central African crises — a trend that prevailed in 2018 and is set to continue into 2019.
Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mali, The large numbers of refugees coming from Syria, Palestine, and other
and South Sudan — and associated socio-economic ills such as countries in the region have placed economic strain on host communities
famine — largely accounts for the estimated 6.3 million refugees — particularly because the MENA countries where the majority of
currently living in Sub-Saharan Africa. refugees are hosted tend to be middle- or low-income economies.
Looking ahead to 2019, elections in the DRC the creation of the World Trade Organization. Since the international funding that provides international financial assistance, via multilateral
and the spread of extremist violence from Known as the African Continental Free Trade assistance for refugees continually falls short of organizations and INGOs, is needed to support
northern Mali to the country’s more populated Area (ACFTA), the initiative authorizes signatory
The development requirements, host countries, forced to use their refugee-hosting economies and, thereby, improve
The global private
south and central zones could lead to further states to remove tariffs from 90% of goods,
of key economic national budgets, are struggling to meet even the the lives of both refugee and host populations.
sector has the
forced migration from these two states. allowing free access to commodities, goods, and
sectors across the basic needs of the growing numbers of refugees
potential to provide
services across the continent.
continent is creating within their borders. The global private sector can play a key role in
employment
A number of positive developments that took
opportunities to supporting refugees, both by mobilizing financial
remotely to hundreds
shape in 2018 have the potential to change Concomitant with this agreement, which is set
absorb the plentiful The economic challenges arising from this resources quickly and by providing a level of
of thousands of
some of these long-standing patterns, however. to increase intra-African trade by 52% by 2022,
labor resources that situation include rising public debt, decreasing expertise and innovation that generally cannot
MENA-based
Notably, warring parties in South Sudan reached has been a commitment by member states to lift
Sub-Saharan Africa GDP, high unemployment rates, declining job be matched by humanitarian actors. The global
refugees.
a negotiated settlement in September 2018, entry requirements for fellow Africans, in order
has to offer. opportunities, and increasing levels of poverty private sector is also an important source of
formally ending the country’s five-year-long civil to maximize the economic dividends accrued in developing refugee-hosting countries. On the employment. Through its channeling of foreign
war. In addition, stabilizing political conditions
could see the return of displaced populations
from the ACFTA and other associated pan-
African trade deals. 52%
other hand, the Turkish economy has generally
been boosted by the influx of new businesses
direct investment to refugee-hosting countries,
for example, jobs can be created locally for both
7,000
from countries such as Uganda and Sudan and an from Syria: 7,000 companies have been founded refugee and host communities.
The number of
The increase in Turkish companies
overall reversal in the region’s migration trends. Economic benefits remain a significant driver intra-African trade or co-founded by Syrians in Turkey since 2011,
of migration in Africa. The initiation or though this economic growth slowed in 2018. In addition, by employing responsible business founded or co-
predicted to occur founded by Syrians
This would build upon an emerging trend in East development of key economic sectors across the by 2022 as a result practices — such as mandating that a particular
Africa, linked to the stabilization of Somalia and continent, and indeed outside of it, is creating Refugee-hosting countries generally enforce proportion of jobs be allocated to refugees or since 2011
of the African
the return of displaced communities residing in opportunities to absorb the plentiful labor Continental Free protectionist labor laws that restrict refugees that employment adhere strictly to local labor
the country’s neighboring states. Also within resources that Sub-Saharan Africa has to offer. Trade Area from fully accessing the domestic labor market. laws — the private sector could provide dignified
Sources:
the Horn of Africa, the unprecedented decision This is particularly the case in the hydrocarbon In Lebanon and Jordan, Syrian refugees only livelihoods to refugees, as well as to members of
Building Markets. 2018.
by Ethiopia and Eritrea to end an almost two- sector, where an increased demand for oil is have the right to work and acquire work permits host communities. ‘Turkish–Syrian Business
Sources: Partnerships: A Nascent
decade-long political impasse has resulted in increasing production of the commodity and in limited sectors (agriculture and construction). Opportunity’. June 2018.
‘IOM Trends Analysis: Most
a marked increase in bilateral migration across creating employment opportunities. Horn of Africa Migrants Move Palestinian refugees also have restricted access Because local MENA economies cannot absorb Charles, Lorraine. 2017. ‘How
the countries’ erstwhile disputed borders. These within Region’. 2018. Relief to the labor market in Lebanon. In Turkey, the full number of refugees who need jobs, there Remote Work Could Help
Web. 9 November 2018. Refugees’. World Economic
movements are expected to only continue in Similarly, the development of nascent industries Kuti, Dela. 2018. ‘Africa Could
while Syrian refugees are allowed to work in is an urgent need for a scalable, sustainable, and Forum. 22 November 2017.
2019, as East African states strengthen the social, in countries such as Kenya, Mozambique, and Be the World’s Next Big Oil any sector, employment is restricted by a quota replicable model for job creation. The global Crisis Group. 2018. ‘Turkey’s
and Gas Energy Play’. How Syrian Refugees: Defusing
political, and economic ties between them. even Zimbabwe could go a long way in not We Made It in Africa. 10 May set by the government (namely, one Syrian for private sector has the potential to provide Metropolitan Tensions’.
only addressing unemployment within these 2018. every ten Turkish employees). This has meant employment remotely, via technology and the Ghazal, Mohammad. 2018.
The easing of restrictions between Ethiopia and jurisdictions, but also attracting unskilled and Runde, Daniel. 2018. ‘What that many refugees are under-employed or work internet, and can potentially provide jobs to ‘Syrian Refugee Population
Peace in Eritrea Means for Increases Slightly Last Year’.
Eritrea can be seen as a microcosm of a wider semi-skilled workers from beyond their borders. Forced Migration’. Centre for informally, often earning less than the minimum hundreds of thousands of MENA-based refugees. The Jordan Times. 19 February
Strategic and International 2018.
trend toward greater economic inclusion in Sub- wage in sub-standard working conditions.
Studies. 12 July 2018. UNHCR. 2018. ‘Funding
Saharan Africa. In March 2018, for instance, Signe, Landry. 2018. ‘Why With the appropriate level of political will, the Shortfall Risks Critical
African states promulgated the world’s largest Africa’s Free Trade Area The plight of refugees in the MENA region will impact that the private sector could have on the Humanitarian Response for
Offers So Much Promise’. The Syrian Refugees, Internally
and most profitable free-trade agreement since Conversation. 26 March 2018. continue to be a challenge in 2019. Greater refugee crises in the MENA region is significant. Displaced’.
18 19
EUROPE
applications in the EU-28 were made in only reforming the EU’s Blue Card Directive — were 6,400
five countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, France, and not supported by member states. The political August 2018
Germany). The European Commission sought climate for developing a proactive EU migration Number of asylum applications
to tackle this imbalance by adding a mandatory policy was, overall, unfavorable. received per month in the EU
20
RUSSIA AND THE CIS THE AMERICAS
Russia’s economy, although not fully recovered since 2014, continues Migration and mobility in Latin America in 2018 were almost
to outperform the stagnant regions from which a largely under- exclusively dominated by the emigration of thousands of Venezuelans
qualified young male workforce pours in. This influx of foreign to other countries in the region, with the addition of around 50,000
workers, in turn, has proved critical to maintaining economic Nicaraguans applying for asylum in Costa Rica. According to
productivity in the face of high emigrant outflows. estimates offered by the International Organization for Migration
in November 2018, the number of refugees and migrants from
Russia’s pivotal position in Central Eurasia, Russian media agencies regularly publish
its comparatively lenient migration laws, and, encouraging stories about Russian migrants
Venezuela worldwide has already reached three million people.
frequently, the absence of a language barrier worldwide. According to Russian statistics, about
With Russia’s labor
market poised to 80% of this number are now residing in Latin end of October that the country will not continue
virtually guarantee that Russia will remain 60,000 Russians emigrate annually, but the data
shrink even further America and the Caribbean, with Colombia to offer residence permits. Since migration flows
the largest migrant recipient in 2019 for the is unverifiable because Russians are not required
in 2019, the need (around one million), Peru (approximately half will continue, this move might lead to numerous
Domestic courts will
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to declare that they have emigrated. Besides, the for migrant workers emerge as important
a million), Ecuador (around 220,000), and individuals ending up with undocumented status,
and Ukraine, as well as a popular destination for issue is politically sensitive, as it is in Ukraine, remains critical. actors in the attempt
Argentina and Chile (over 100,000) having increasing the risk of situations of exploitation.
Vietnamese, Chinese, Indian, North Korean, and where over one million people left the country to maintain some
received the largest number of Venezuelans. of the advances
Turkish workers. each year between 2014 and 2017.
Second, the region will see the emergence of in migration
Kyrgyz 250,000 The legal responses of Latin American and domestic courts as important actors in the liberalization that
Despite a downward trend in migrant inflows, With Russia’s labor market poised to shrink even
Caribbean countries to the arrival of Venezuelans attempt to maintain some of the advances in have been made
between January and September 2018 Russia further in 2019, the need for migrant workers
Ukrainians 347,000 can generally be characterized as open, although migration liberalization — notably regarding the since the turn of the
received over 3.4 million Uzbeks, 1.7 million remains critical. The further aging of the
with some caveats. While most countries in the free movement of regional migrants — that have century.
Tajiks, 347,000 Ukrainians, and almost 250,000 Russian population without an ongoing influx of
region (with exceptions such as Trinidad and been made since the turn of the century. Courts
Kyrgyz, with migrants from other regions falling migrants may leave entire peripheral regions of Tajiks 1,700,000
Tobago) are trying to offer residence permits have already played important roles in 2018 in
far behind these numbers. the country depopulated. Migrants tend to flow
to Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other large cities. Uzbeks 3,400,000
— so as to avoid situations of undocumented
residence, which could lead to possible
places like Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Argentina,
and Chile.
3,000,000
Nearly half of Russia’s estimated 10–12 million According to the migration policy guidelines Migrant inflows to Russia,
exploitation — typically such permits are only The number of
January–September 2018
migrants are illegal. Registration procedures for for 2019–2025, migrants will soon be directed
applicable to certain categories of Venezuelans Third, the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro to the Venezuelans who
foreigners were tightened as of 31 December to under-populated Siberian and Far Eastern
(for example, those arriving after a certain Presidency of Brazil in early 2019 might produce have emigrated as a
2017, with the federal authorities intensifying regions, and governmental recruiting agencies
5,000,000 date); are adopted by executive decrees, with changes in the migration policy of Latin America’s result of the ongoing
the punishment for employing illegals. To allay in Central Asian states will have the mandate
little intervention by parliaments; and merely most populous country. While the number crisis in their country
widespread fears about migrants’ monopolizing to prevent human rights abuses and tax fraud. The number of
Ukrainians who grant temporary residence, thus generating legal of foreigners residing in Brazil is very low
and criminalizing of certain industries, regions Similarly, a socio-cultural assimilation program
left their country uncertainty for the future. (constituting less than 1% of the total population),
were allowed to set their own quotas for will facilitate foreign nationals’ integration into Sources:
between 2014 any restrictive signal by such a country is likely to
employing migrants in certain industries (public Russian society. Acosta, Diego. 2016. ‘Free
and 2017 The prospects for 2019 point in the direction of have negative consequences for debates in other Movement in South America:
transport, security, pharmaceutical, and food). A The Emergence of an Alternative
the ongoing emigration of Venezuelans, as well as neighboring states.
CIS migration law that is currently in the works To encourage the inflow of qualified Model?’ Migration Information
Sources:
Nicaraguans, to countries in the region — in the Source. Migration Policy
aims to regulate all aspects of migration. professionals, the process of obtaining Russian Institute. 23 August 2016.
Klimkin, Pavel. 2018. ‘Kiyev case of Nicaraguans, almost exclusively to Costa Finally, Latin American’s second most populous
citizenship and work licenses is being eased. So Priznal Migratsiyu Ukraintsev Acosta, Diego. 2018. The
Rica, due to the latter’s proximity and stability country, Mexico, will also see the arrival of a National versus the Foreigner
The number of migrants pushed into Russia far, this policy is working: although in 2018 Katastroficheskoy’. Lenta. 4
September 2018. and the historical and migration links between new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in South America: 200 Years
from Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, fewer work permits were issued, the percentage Scherbakova, Ekaterina. 2018.
of Migration and Citizenship
both countries. This opens up several scenarios, who holds a completely different political Law. Cambridge: Cambridge
Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Syria by political of professionals among legal migrants increased. ‘Migratsiya v Rossii: Itogi
University Press.
Pervogo Polugodiya 2018 for which we can anticipate a range of possible ideology from that of Bolsonaro. Mexico will face
distress or pro-native citizenship and language Goda’. Demoscope Weekly. Freier, Luisa Feline and
September/October 2018. trends. First, while many Venezuelans have numerous challenges that will affect its already Nicolas Parent. 2018. ‘A
laws dropped to 13,200 in 2018. Since 2014,
‘Ukaz O Kontseptsii obtained residence permits in countries across the poor track record when it comes to the protection South American Migration
Russian professionals have been fleeing political Gosudarstvennoy Crisis: Venezuelan Outflows
Migratsionnoy Politiki
region, we can already see some countries closing of the rights of migrants in its territory, including Test Neighbors’ Hospitality’.
and social stagnation in the wake of Putin’s
Rossiyskoy Federatsii na their doors. This is most obvious in the case of those fleeing violence in El Salvador, Honduras, Migration Information Source.
three re-elections. 2019–2025 Gody’. 2018. Migration Policy Institute.
Kremlin. 31 October 2018. Peru, where President Vizcarra announced at the and Guatemala. 18 July 2018.
22 23
Part 3
190
forecast to revise their current closed-door visitor’s permit, or an electronic travel authority
policy, while countries in other parts of Europe (ETA) when entering the destination. These visa
14
(such as citizenship-by-investment newcomers types require no pre-departure government The number of
Moldova and Montenegro) as well as those approval, because of the specific visa-waiver countries and
21 st
in Asia and the Middle East will most likely programs in place. territories accessible
9 continue seeking visa-waiver agreements with to citizens of Japan,
strategic diplomatic allies, in line with their Where a visa is required, or where a passport who hold the
more proactive foreign affairs approach. The holder has to obtain a government-approved strongest passport in
3
US and the UK have slid down the ranking from electronic visa (e-visa) before departure, a the world
5th to 6th place this year. score with value = 0 is assigned. A score with
2
value = 0 is also assigned if passport holders
1 62 nd
A final word ought to be added concerning need pre-departure government approval for a
the great unknown that is Brexit. Until a final visa on arrival — a scenario that we do not
2006 2010 2014 Q4 2018 2006 2010 2014 Q4 2018 deal is hammered out, it is difficult to know consider ‘visa-free’.
what exactly the ramifications will be for EU–
Europe Asia UAE UK travel, although, as it stands, it seems that The total score for each passport is equal to
visa-free arrangements will remain in place. International Air
the number of destinations for which no visa
Transport Association
Figure 1: The number of European versus Asian countries in the top 3 of Figure 2: The ranking of the Emirati passport on the Henley Passport Index And with Kosovo waiting in the wings for visa is required (value = 1), under the conditions
the Henley Passport Index over time liberalization with the EU, the year ahead is defined above.
bound to contain its fair share of surprises in
China performed well in the second quarter, gaining access to By the fourth quarter, Japan had overtaken Singapore to Sources:
the travel freedom space.
Kälin, Christian H. and
the UAE, Oman, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which boosted its become the most powerful passport in the world, boasting visa- Henley & Partners. Henley
overall position on the ranking. As part of China’s effort to boost free access to a record-high 190 countries. The UAE claimed Passport Index. 2006–present.
henleypassportindex.com.
26 27
THE 2019 HENLEY PASSPORT INDEX Powered by
International Air Transport Association
2 Singapore 189 14 Chile 175 35 Venezuela 138 59 Maldives 86 78 Sierra Leone 62 Central African Republic
4 Denmark 187 17 Brazil 171 37 Guatemala 136 Papua New Guinea Mongolia 91 Congo (Rep.) 47
Sweden Hong Kong (SAR China) 40 Serbia 129 64 Suriname 80 Mozambique 92 Burundi 46
5 Luxembourg 186 Romania Vanuatu 65 Bolivia 79 Sao Tome and Principe 93 Djibouti 45
Norway 21 Brunei 165 42 Colombia 127 68 Namibia 75 82 Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) 56 96 Ethiopia 42
Switzerland 23 Israel 161 43 Macedonia (FYROM) 125 69 China 74 Senegal North Korea
United Kingdom 24 Barbados 159 44 Marshall Islands 124 Lesotho 83 Bhutan 55 97 Bangladesh 41
Ireland St. Kitts and Nevis 47 Micronesia 121 Malawi Niger 99 Palestinian Territory 39
8 Czech Republic 183 28 Antigua and Barbuda 150 48 Russian Federation 119 73 Gambia 68 Rwanda Sudan
9 Malta 182 29 Costa Rica 149 49 Bosnia and Herzegovina 118 Tanzania 85 Chad 53 100 Eritrea 38
Iceland 30 Trinidad and Tobago 148 50 Albania 115 74 Azerbaijan 66 Madagascar 102 Pakistan 33
New Zealand Vatican City 51 Georgia 114 Philippines Turkmenistan 103 Somalia 32
11 Hungary 180 31 Mauritius 145 52 Turkey 111 Tunisia 86 Comores Islands 52 Syria
Latvia St. Lucia 53 Belize 101 75 Cape Verde Islands 65 Laos 104 Afghanistan 30
Lithuania 32 Macao (SAR China) 144 South Africa Cuba 87 Equatorial Guinea 51 Iraq
This graph shows the full Global Ranking of the 2019 Henley Passport Index. In certain cases, a rank is shared The Henley Passport Index is a live ranking. The information provided here reflects
by multiple countries because these countries all have the same level of visa-free or visa-on-arrival access. the ranking on 8 January 2019. For the latest ranking, visit henleypassportindex.com
THE EFFECT OF TRAVEL FREEDOM ON Yet most existing empirical studies on the effect There are several possible explanations for
of visa liberalization are based on the analysis of the somewhat surprising findings outlined
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEMOCRACY The number of visa-
one or two cases. There is little cross-national above. For one, democracy is generally thought
evidence on how the rising number of visa-free to be ‘contagious’. It has been argued that free destinations held
by UĞUR ALTUNDAL
destinations has affected countries’ economies democratization is rarely a purely domestic by a sender country
Uğur Altundal is a researcher in political science at Syracuse University.
and, to date, no empirical study that addresses phenomenon, and that cross-border diffusion has a positive
and ÖMER ZARPLI
the question of its effect on democracy. plays a very important role in its development. and statistically
Ömer Zarpli is a researcher in political science at the University of Pittsburgh.
One of the pathways through which diffusion significant effect
Our research used regression analysis to measure occurs is ‘learning’ from other cases through on that country’s
Over the past decade, travel freedom has expanded precipitously thanks to the rising number democracy score.
the effect of a country’s number of visa-free communication and informational networks.
of bilateral visa-waiver agreements and unilateral decisions implemented by governments. destinations on its democracy score and GDP It is possible that increased cross-border
In 2006, a citizen, on average, could travel to 58 destinations without needing a visa from per capita, within a global sample. interactions thanks to visa-free travel can
the host nation; by 2018, this number had nearly doubled to 107.
We drew the data on visa-waivers from the
contribute to this learning process.
> 70%
The percentage
Yet despite the important progress made in overall global Research has shown that visa-free access increases the number Henley Passport Index, which compiles the Furthermore, individuals who are exposed to
reduction in
mobility, there remains a significant ‘global mobility divide’, of travelers to the visa-free destination country. In contrast, number of visa-free destinations for each different cultures may be more tolerant at home.
inbound travel that
with some passports much more powerful than others. For visa requirements have a negative effect on the number of country and territory, with data going back to There is a long line of research on the prejudice-
results from one
instance, in 2018, the average European could travel to about inbound travelers. Scholars have pointed out that, “[a]t the 2006. For the economic variables, we relied on reducing effect of inter-group contact. It has
country placing
163 destinations without a visa, while the average individual bilateral level, having a travel visa requirement on a particular the World Bank, and for the data on democracy, been generally found that contact with ‘out-
visa restrictions on
from Africa could travel to only about 61 destinations. country is associated with a 70% reduction in inbound travel we relied on the Polity data series, which records groups’ fosters empathy and reduces bias under
another
from that country”. each country’s democracy score on a scale from certain conditions.
Notwithstanding this apparent gap, many developing nations –10 (autocracy) to +10 (democracy).
— with the notable exception of some Sub-Saharan countries Beyond tourism, countries such as Japan and Taiwan have Visa-waivers can also facilitate cooperation
— have significantly increased their visa-free access over time. recently relaxed travel and residence requirements in the Based on our preliminary analysis, we found between civil society groups and NGOs,
A few countries in particular stand out: Albania has increased hope of attracting a skilled workforce. A number of European that the number of visa-free destinations held by including those that specialize in democracy
its total number of visa-free destinations more than six-fold nations, among them Portugal and Greece, have set up ‘golden a sender country has a positive and statistically promotion. Finally, visa liberalization can
(from 17 in 2006 to 114 in 2018), while countries such as visa’ programs as a way to revitalize their economies through significant, albeit non-linear, effect on that facilitate scientific and academic exchanges.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, China, and Colombia have foreign investment and capital inflow. country’s democracy score (see Figure 4). It has been found that foreign-educated Continued visa liberalization
more than quadrupled their visa-free access over time. individuals have a positive impact on a country’s could inject USD 206 billion
into the global economy and
By minimizing the risk of reverse causality, we democracy, especially when they study in create 5.1 million jobs
were able to rule out the possibility that higher democratic countries.
levels of democracy are the cause of high levels
of travel freedom, as might generally be assumed. One important avenue for further research is the
Henley Passport Index score
Sources:
disaggregation of visa-free destinations. After
Predicted democracy score
30 31
Part 4
As Jürgen Habermas explains, the establishment Imagine a world in which everyone is in control
of regulatory power beyond the state is not so of their digital identity and, thus, of their future.
Figure 5: An early Nansen passport, issued by the League of Nations in the Figure 6: A 1944 passport belonging to a UN official, closely resembling
much a challenge to democracy but rather, in Is there a better way? Sources:
aftermath of World War One modern-day passports
and of itself, a requirement of it. Government of Canada. 2014.
‘History of Passports’.
The idea of a worldwide passport as we understand it today The passport seemed on one level to be a step towards Salter, Mark B. 2016. ‘Rights
emerged in the aftermath of World War One, particularly after maintaining peace, protecting freedom, and helping refugees, Digital identity and global citizenship — as of Passage: The Passport
in International Relations’.
the Paris Peace Conference, and as a step taken by the League but there was also the potential for it to be seized as a doors to participation in democratic decision- Business Insider. 10 October
of Nations towards maintaining peace. political opportunity to control movement and immigration. making processes at the global level — do not 2016.
substitute the citizenship of a state, and nor does World Bank. 2018. ‘ID4D
And yet, of course, no one could reverse the idea once it had Data: Global Identification
At the end of the war, the world was in disarray: many been introduced. an institutional setting for global regulation Challenge by the Numbers’.
Identification for Development
governments were toppled or fell, and borders were changed substitute the state.
(ID4D).
34 35
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