October 20, 2010 – Gold, Crude Oil and the Euro are now longer Overbought.
The yield on the 10-Year note is back below my monthly pivot at 2.555, so we renew our watch
for quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249 in anticipation of QE2. Gold tested
my weekly risky level at $1373.6 on Monday then closed below my monthly pivot at $1343.7 on
Wednesday, so there’s risk to my quarterly value level at $1306.4. Crude oil is back below this
week’s pivot at $82.38 with my annual pivot still at $77.05. The euro appears headed for a test
of my quarterly value level at 1.3318. The Dow will lose its overbought characteristic on its
daily chart today or tomorrow. My monthly pivot is 10,857 with weekly, annual and semiannual
risky levels at 11,229, 11,235 and 11,296. Single-family housing starts rise, but community
banks reluctant to lend to home builders. Thoughts on the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund!
10-Year Note – (2.475) Weekly, annual and annual value levels are 2.620, 2.813 and 2.999 with
monthly and daily pivots at 2.555 and 2.515, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and
2.249.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($79.56) My annual value level is $77.05 with daily and weekly pivots at $82.23
and $82.38, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74.
Daily Dow: (10,979) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,857, 10,558,
10,379 and 8,523 with daily, weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 11,138, 11,229, 11,235,
11,290 and 11,296. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01.