How our apparel addiction is speeding up the destruction of the

planet?
Identifying CO2 emissions from apparel consumption per capita trends over
time in the countries with highest spending on apparel per person (2010 - 2017)

Abstract

Studies show that the apparel industry’s contribution to total carbon emissions is increasing

over time. In this paper, our focus was to determine whether the consumption of apparel

impacts the planetary boundary of Climate Change, through increased carbon emissions over

a particular date range, in the nine highest per capita spending countries on apparel. In order

to confirm our hypothesis of CO2 emissions from apparel consumption of countries with

highest per capita spending on apparel will increase over the years, we collected data related

to average units of apparel consumption per person in each country from 2010 to 2017 and

calculate emissions data using the carbon footprint of a regular t-shirt. With this data, we

proceed to apply linear regression test to prove a correlation between our variables per

country. The results evidence that only United States, India and China, three of the nine

countries, are increasing CO2 emissions from apparel consumption per capita through the

observed years (p value=US:0.00072; India:0.0021; China:0.0018 / R2=US:0.8697;

India:0.8143; China:0.8218), in consequence our hypothesis was rejected. Multiple reasons

could influence a decrease trend of some countries such as new generation sentiment and the

economic situation of the country.

Keywords: sustainable fashion, production, consumption, carbon emissions, clothing,

climate change.

Word count: 2,224

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Introduction

It would be difficult to find an industry that doesn’t contribute to global CO2 emissions.

However, it is one of the biggest polluters, second only to oil, that is often overlooked for

their impact, the industry of apparel (Sumner, 2018). Buying and wearing apparel is usually a

positive experience for individuals, however production and consumption are putting

pressure on resources, polluting the environment and having negative societal impacts (Ellen

Macarthur Foundation, 2017). Impacts come from different parts of the clothes life cycle:

from fiber production to the disposal of clothes (Payne, 2011) which are set to increase as the

industry grows. The new business model of fashion relies on companies producing trend led

items in much shorter time periods, which arrive on shop floors every few weeks to satisfy

demand, generating clothes as disposable items (Nature Climate Change, 2018). By 2050 the

industry is estimated it will be worth 26% of the whole carbon budget, will have added 22

million tonnes of microfibers to the ocean and will have tripled resource consumption (Ellen

Macarthur Foundation, 2017). There are many negative environmental and societal impacts

associated with the Fashion Industry. In this paper, we aim to analyze the industries current

impact on carbon emissions.

What is feeding industry growth?

According to Remy, Speelman and Swartz (2016) the falling production costs, streamlined

operations, increasing disposable income and a doubling of clothing production from 2000 -

2014 has incentivized the growth of fashion industry. Josephson (2018) include these reasons

in two main categories that explain why the fashion industry is growing in an exponential

way: the relationship between income and price and the relationship between seasons per

year and the requirement for less time production to consumption process.

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All this has resulted in the consumer buying 60% more than in 2000 (Nature Climate Change,

2018) as well as increasing from an average of 9 to 60 pieces of apparel person owned per

year (Cline, 2013). Hence, these encourage an increase in the production which make the

cycle starts all over again.

Where do the carbon emissions come from?

Emissions come from different parts of the clothes life cycle: from fiber production to the

disposal of clothes (Payne, 2011). Cotton and polyester are two of the main fibers in the

apparel industry, representing around 90% of the total fibers used (mistrafuturefashion, n.d.)

Polyester has a higher carbon footprint than cotton because it is derived from fossil resources

(mistrafuturefashion, n.d.). A polyester t-shirt emits more than the double of Greenhouse

Gases than a cotton one (MIT, 2015). During the garment production, most factories are in

countries that use coal and natural gas as sources of energy which contribute to the increase

of CO2 emissions coming from the industry (Quantis, 2018).

Following the projections of the increasing contribution from the apparel industry in the

carbon budget, here we will try to determine whether the consumption of apparel impacts the

planetary boundary of Climate Change, through increased carbon emissions over a time

frame, in the nine highest per capita spending countries on apparel.

In order to answer this, we will test the following hypothesis:

CO2 emissions from apparel consumption of countries with highest per capita spending on

apparel will increase over the years.

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1) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in

Australia.

2) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in

Canada.

3)Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in Japan.

4) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in the

European Union (EU).

5) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in United

States (US).

6) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in Russia

7) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in Brazil.

8) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in China.

9) Each year CO2 emissions from apparel consumption will increase in India.

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Methods

Selection of countries

The selected countries are the ones with the highest spend on apparel per capita in 2012

according to Statista (2018). Due to the limited availability of data from recent years, we

selected 2012 as the year of reference. We choose per capita instead of the total expenditure

to relate with the variable CO2 emissions from apparel consumption per capita and work at

the same level.

Top Nine Countries Per capita expenditure on apparel (in U.S.

dollars)

1. Australia 1,050

2. Japan 831

3. Canada 814

4. US 686

5. EU 663

6. Russia 273

7. Brazil 272

8. China 109

9. India 36

Table 1: Top nine countries with highest per capita expenditure on apparel (in U.S. dollars) in 2012
(Statista, 2018)

Variables and Data Collecting

To test our hypothesis, the variables were determined. The dependent variable is CO2

emissions from apparel consumption per capita of countries with highest spending on

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apparel. For this variable, the data needed was the average units of apparel consumption per

person in each country and the average CO2 emission per unit of clothing.

For the first data, we choose per capita instead of total consumption because this paper focus

on individual’s impact without other factors influencing the result. For example, in total

consumption volume is higher in China than Canada, due to its larger population.

We were able to obtain data for consumption per capita, however could not find the carbon

footprint of different pieces of clothing which the consumption data is based on. To make our

calculations we used CO2 emission of a t-shirt, which does not show the real carbon

emissions of different kind of apparel. In the table 2, we operationalize the variables.

Variable Indicator Source Remarks

CO2 emissions from 1) Average units Statista It is a good indicator

apparel consumption of apparel of the exact
per capita of countries consumption consumption of
with highest spending per person in apparel per person.
on apparel. each country However, we would
from 2010 to have gained a better
2017. result if we could have
used a larger date
range, it was not
possible to find data
before 2010.

2) CO2 T shared Average CO2

emissions per emissions per type of
t-shirt. apparel would be a
better indicator.
However, it was not
possible to find the

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 data.

Table 2: Data sources and remarks.

In order to reach the variable, we multiplied the average units of apparel consumption per

person in each country with the CO2 emissions per t-shirt. We used this formula in every

year, making an assumption that the carbon emissions of a t-shirt stayed the same over time.

The independent variable in this paper is time. we are using the data range from 2010 to

2017. We would have preferred to show a larger data range, we could not find data before

than 2010.

Data analysis

With the data of both variables, we proceeded to test it through linear regression analysis in

Excel per country. This analysis helps us to determine if there exists a correlation between

CO2 emissions from apparel consumption per capita of countries with highest spending on

apparel and time from 2010 to 2017. If the p value is lower than 0.05 and the R2 value is

high, we can confirm the previous hypothesis.

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Results

Descriptive Statistics

To answer our hypothesis, we apply descriptive statistics using line charts to show the trends

of CO2 emissions from apparel consumption per capita of each country. As we can see in

figure 1, the nine countries have different trends, some more clear than others. US, China and

India have an increasing trend, whereas Russia and Canada have a decreasing one. However,

the remaining countries’ trends are not as easy to observe with only descriptive statistics.

Figure 1. Comparison between selected countries’ CO2 emissions (kg) from apparel consumption per
capita from 2010 to 2017.

Inferential Statistics

To gain a strongest result, that will help us to determine if our hypotheses are correct, we

used linear regression analysis this will indicate whether there is correlation between CO2

emissions from apparel consumption per capita of countries with highest spending on apparel

and time. In Figure 2, we can observe in detail what the exact trend is for each country

observed.

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Figure 2. Scatterplot and trend line of CO2 emissions from apparel consumption per capita of each
selected country organized by trends and linear regression results. First row: increasing trend, positive
correlation. Second row: decreasing trend, negative correlation (except Japan, no correlation). Third
row: slightly increasing trend, no correlation.

United States, India and China have a clear increasing trend over the observed years with a

slope of 2.9655, 1.5863 and 1.4408 respectively. In addition, they have p values below 0.05

(US:0.00072; India:0.0021; China:0.0018) and a high R2 (US:0.8697; India:0.8143;

China:0.8218). Hence, in the case of these three countries exists correlation between the

variables.

Russia, Canada and Japan have a opposite trend than the previous group of countries,

showing a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2017 through their slopes (Russia:-4.7811; Canada:-

1.5415; Japan:-0.7945). Nevertheless, in the linear regression test, Russia and Canada have p

values below 0.05 (Russia:0.00046; Canada:0.013) and a high R2 (Russia:0.8873;

Canada:0.8161) which prove a negative correlation between the variables. In the case of

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Japan, it has a p value above 0.05 (Japan:0.3443) and a low R2 (Japan:0.1493) in

consequence there is not a correlation.

Australia, Brazil and EU shows irregular trends over the years. Although their slopes prove a

slight increasing trend (Australia:1.133; Brazil:0.2602; EU:0.0532), the p value below 0.05

(Australia:0.0782; Brazil:0.6112; EU:0.8746) and the low R2 (Australia:0.4284;

Brazil:0.0456; EU:0.0044) evidence a lack of correlation between the tested variables.

Figure 3 present our results which demonstrate that group 1 including the United States, India

and China are the only countries of the nine tested that have increased their CO2 emissions

from apparel consumption per capita over the years. Hence, our hypothesis “CO2 emissions

from apparel consumption of countries with highest per capita spending on apparel will

increase over the years” is rejected.

Figure 3. Map showing three different group of countries relate to trends of CO2 emissions from apparel
consumption per capita. Group 1 (brown): US, India and China increasing trend. Group 2 (beige):
Russia, Canada and Japan decreasing trend. Group 3 (light brown): Australia, EU and Brazil irregular
trend.

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Discussion

Studying the relationship between apparel consumption per capita per year and CO2

emissions has revealed there is little correlation in the highest consuming countries of

apparel. Despite projections that the apparel industry is growing, in six of the nine countries

we have analyzed apparel consumption per capita has decreased over the period 2010 – 2017

with some variations. Only in the United States (the highest consumer of apparel) and in the

emerging markets of China and India is apparel consumption increasing and a correlation

between apparel consumption and CO2 emissions can be seen. Despite the increase in CO2

emissions associated with apparel consumption in China and India these are still below the

levels of the rest of the group, emissions from apparel consumption in the US is over 4 times

as much. Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company (2017) state 2017 is a point where

apparel and footwear sales tipped in Europe and North America and that growth of the

industry would now be in the emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America and other

regions. This trend can be seen earlier in the data we collected of with the exception of the

US which appears still to be growing, it would be interesting to conduct further research in to

how this trend will influence overall emissions associated with the industry. All hypotheses

with the exception of the US, India and China were rejected, interestingly we found that there

were negative correlations (consumption and CO2 emissions decreasing) in Canada and

Russia.

In 2018 geopolitical turmoil, economic uncertainty and unpredictability in markets are likely

to be having an impact on consumption of apparel (The Business of Fashion and McKinsey

& Company, 2017). Another reason why consumption and associated emissions could be

decreasing may be consumer sentiment. Gone are the days of Generations X’s unconscious

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consumption and as Millennials come of age so does their buying power and their demand for

sustainable products, one third is more likely to buy from companies mindful of social and

environmental responsibilities (Mellery-Pratt, 2017).

The Ellen MacArthur Foundation (2017) reported that in 2050 carbon emissions from apparel

industry will be 26% of the entire carbon budget, however with CO2 emissions associated

with consumption decreasing it would be interesting to understand how they came to this

figure. If demand is falling one would assume so would production and the emissions

associated with this, will the industry really accelerate Climate Change, could more

sustainable production and consumption reduce overall emissions associated with the

industry.

Limitations

There is limited calculated data for the carbon footprint of clothing, our consumption data

included different types of clothing. However, we were unable to find the footprint for each

piece, which is why we calculated the emissions based only on a t-shirt. We consider this a

middle item, it is possible it has less of a footprint than more complex pieces but more than

say underwear. Likewise, we make an assumption that the carbon emissions of a t-shirt

stayed the same over time due to the unavailability of this data. In addition, a larger date

range than 2010 to 2017 would have been better to analysis and could change the correlation

of some of the countries such countries from group 3 with a irregular trend (Australia, EU

and Brazil). However, we could not find the data from previous years than 2010.

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Next Steps and Conclusion

The apparel industry’s emissions equated to 2% of the total carbon budget in 2015 (Ellen

MacArthur Foundation, 2017) and 6.7% of the total carbon budget in 2017 (Quantis, 2018)

which implies that the emissions contribution of the industry is increasing over years. The

aim of this paper was to confirm our hypothesis that CO2 emissions from apparel

consumption of countries with highest per capita spending on apparel is increasing over time,

we tested the variables and our research showed a clear division among countries into three

groups determined by the trends of each country and correlation between the variables. The

first group of countries included United States, India and China held an increasing trend and

positive correlation. In the second group, Russia, Canada and Japan held a decreasing trend

but only Russia and Canada had a negative correlation. Finally, group three including

Australia, Brazil and EU with a slightly increasing trend but irregular at the same time and

hence no correlation. Only group 1 (United States, China and India), three of the nine

selected countries’ carbon emissions from apparel consumption per capita are increasing on

the observed time frame. In other words, our hypothesis was rejected.

This has different ways to look at in order to determine why most of the countries are

decreasing such as changes in consumer sentiment drives by generational and values changes

and economic context of each country. However, it would be interesting to understand how

United States, China and India contributes to the overall CO2 emissions of the apparel

consumption to find an answer why the global emissions are increasing whereas some

countries have decreased.

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References

The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company. (2017). The State of Fashion 2018.
Retrieved from
https://cdn.businessoffashion.com/reports/The_State_of_Fashion_2018_v2.pdf

Cline, E, L. (2013). Overdressed: The Shockingly High Cost of Cheap Fashion. Penguin.

Ellen Macarthur Foundation (2017). A New Textiles Economy: Redesigning fashion’s future.
Retrieved from https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/a-new-
textiles-economy-redesigning-fashions-future

Josephson, Amelia (2018). The Economics of Fast Fashion. Retrieved from

https://smartasset.com/credit-cards/the-economics-of-fast-fashion

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2015). Sustainable Apparel Materials. An overview

of what we know and what could be done about the impact of four major apparel
materials: Cotton, Polyester, Leather and Rubber. Retrieved from
https://globalcompostproject.org/wp-
content/uploads/2015/10/SustainableApparelMaterials.pdf

Mellery-Pratt, R. (2017). 5 Sustainability Threats Facing Fashion. Retrieved from

https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/intelligence/5-sustainability-threats-
facing-fashion

Mistra Future Fashion (2015). Future Fashion Manifesto. Mistra The Swedish Foundation for
Strategic Environment Research. Retrieved from http://mistrafuturefashion.com/wp-
content/uploads/2017/12/Future-Fashion-Manifesto-2015-1.pdf

Nature Climate Change (2018). The price of fast fashion. Retrieved from
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0058-9

Payne, Alice (2011). The Life-cycle of the Fashion Garment and the Role of Australian Mass
Market Designers. Retrieved from
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267205505_The_Life-

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 cycle_of_the_Fashion_Garment_and_the_Role_of_Australian_Mass_Market_Design
ers

Quantis (2018). Measuring fashion, Insights from the Environmental Impact of the Global
Apparel and Footwear Industries Study. Retrieved from https://quantis-intl.com/wp-
content/uploads/2018/06/measuringfashion_globalimpactstudy_quantis_2018.pdf

Remy, N. Speelman, E. Swatz, S. (2016). Style that’s sustainable: A new fast-fashion

formula. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-
functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/style-thats-sustainable-
a-new-fast-fashion-formula

Statista (2018a). Average units of apparel consumption per person in each country from 2010
to 2017. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/117/apparel

Statista (2018b). Per capita expenditure on apparel worldwide in 2012, by region (in U.S.
dollars). Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/279745/global-per-capita-
spend-on-apparel-by-region/

Sumner, S. (2018). FASHION INDUSTRY’S CARBON FOOTPRINT WEARING ON OUR

ENVIRONMENT. Climate Action Business Association. Retrieved from
https://cabaus.org/2018/02/22/fashion-industrys-carbon-footprint-wearing-
environment/

Tshared (2018). How big is the carbon footprint of your T-shirt? Retrieved from
http://www.tshared.eu/blog-of-tsharedeu/carbon-footprint.html

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Appendix 1.

Per capita expenditure on apparel worldwide in 2012

This statistic depicts global per capita expenditure on apparel in 2012, by region.

Appendix 2.

Average Volume per Capita

The average volume per person in the market for Apparel.
Australia
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/107/apparel/australia#market-
volumePerCapita
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

Canada
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/108/apparel/canada#market-volume
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

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Japan
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/121/apparel/japan#market-
volumePerCapita
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

Brazil
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/115/apparel/brazil#market-volume
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

Europe
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/102/apparel/europe#market-volume
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

17
United States
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/109/apparel/united-states#market-
volumePerCapita
Date downloaded 10/10/2018

Russia
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/149/apparel/russia#market-volume
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

China
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/117/apparel/china#market-volume
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

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India
Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/90000000/119/apparel/india#market-volume
Date downloaded: 10/10/2018

Author list

Evelyn Salas Alfaro and Ryan Waugh

Both authors have collaborated to create this research paper by collecting the data, processing

it, researching for the context, writing and analyzing the results.

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