WxBriefing FB

Significant Winter Storm Saturday Night
through Sunday Night

Decision Support Briefing #2 Current Hazards
As of: 600 AM Jan 18, 2019
What Has Changed?

A gale watch has been issued for
Saturday night on the eastern waters
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/18/2019 6:20 AM
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• Snow and Sleet accum of 6-10”
possible.
Heavy • 1/10-1/4” of ice, locally 1/2” Interior Lower Hudson Valley,
• Snowfall rates of 1-2”/hr possible interior NE NJ, and interior Saturday Night into Sunday
Snow/Sleet early Sat Night. SW CT
• Dangerous Travel.
Snow/Sleet • Snow/Sleet accum of 3-6” possible. NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island ,

Freezing • Trace to around 1/10” of ice much of Lower Hudson Valley
Saturday Night through Sunday
• Dangerous Travel. and Southern CT.
Rain
• Plummeting temperatures over NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island,
Flash wet/slushy surfaces, will bring much of Lower Hudson Sunday Afternoon into Sunday
potential for Flash freeze Valley and Southern CT. Night
Freeze
Strong • Numerous downed snow/ice Entire Tri-State Region Sunday afternoon through Sunday
covered tree limbs and power lines
Winds Night
• Heavy rain could cause urban, poor Freshwater - NE NJ, NYC Freshwater Flooding – Saturday
Freshwater drainage, and small stream flooding metro and coast Night into Sunday
Coastal – Highest threat
and Coastal for NYC/NJ metro and coast
across southern bays of W
• Minor to Moderate coastal flooding Coastal Flooding- During the
Flooding in vulnerable areas. (1-2 ft AGL) LI/NYC and along W LI Sunday Morning High Tide
Sound

Summary of Greatest Impacts
Heavy Snow: Interior of Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior
SW CT
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Mixed Precip: NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson

Valley and Southern CT.
Flash freeze: NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson Valley
and Southern CT .
Strong Winds: Entire Tri-State Region
Freshwater and Coastal Flooding: NE NJ, NYC metro and coast

Most Likely Precipitation Types
Putnam
Torrington Hartford
Poughkeepsie Willimantic
Norwich
Middletown Waterbury
Carmel
Montague Danbury New London
New Haven
New City Bridgeport
West Milford
White Plains
Belvidere Paramus Montauk
Morristown
NYC Islip
Westhampton Precipitation
Newark Farmingdale Types
JFK Heavy Snow/Sleet and
New Brunswick Freezing Rain
Snow/Sleet changing to
Trenton Freehold Freezing rain and then
possible rain
Wintry Mix to Mostly
Rain
Heavy Snow and Sleet
Hazards:
 Interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior SW CT
 6-10” of Snow and Sleet
 Snowfall rates of 1-2”/hr early Sat Night
 Vsby 1/4 mile or less
 NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson Valley and

Southern CT.
 3-6” of snow and sleet
 Snowfall rates of up to 1”/hr early Saturday Night
Impacts:
 Dangerous travel Saturday Night through Sunday Night
 Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power outages Sunday
afternoon into Sunday Night
Timing:
 Snow begins Saturday afternoon into evening, becoming moderate
to heavy while transitioning to a wintry mix from south to north
Most Likely Saturday Night.
 A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely late Saturday Night into
Sunday morning along the coast. A transition back to a wintry mix is
possible down to the coast late Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon
Uncertainty:
 A storm track farther south and east would increase snow and sleet
accumulations down to the coast.
 A storm track closer to the coast, would decrease snow and sleet
accumulation across the entire area.

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Sleet Accumulation

Ice Accumulation
Hazards:
 1/10 to 1/4th of an inch of ice for Northeastern NJ, Lower
Hudson Valley, and Interior Southern Connecticut
 Locally ½ inch of ice possible across Interior
 Locally a trace to 1/10th” of ice accretion for the remainder
of the coast and NYC metro.
Impacts:
 Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power
outages possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night
 Icing on Untreated Surfaces
 Dangerous travel Saturday Night through Sunday Night
Timing:
 Freezing rain threat Late Saturday Night through Sunday
morning
Uncertainty:
 A storm track farther south and east would increase ice
accumulations down to the coast.
 A storm track further north and west would shift highest ice
accumulations across the interior, with lesser amounts
along the coast.

Liquid Equivalent Precipitation-Freshwater Flooding
Hazards:
 Rainfall of 1 to 1 ½ inches across NYC, Long
Island, and Coastal CT
 Highest amounts of plain rain across
Long Island
 Rainfall rates of 1/4 to 1/2“/hr- late Saturday
Night through Sunday morning
Impacts:
 Flooding of Urban Areas, Low-lying Roads
 Flooding of quick responding small streams
and creeks in Northeastern NJ is possible.
 Heavy rain during the times of high tide will
exacerbate flooding across low-lying coastal
areas Sunday morning
Timing:
 Heaviest rain late Saturday Night through
Sunday Morning.

Heavy Rain-River Flooding

Strong Winds
Hazards:
 Northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts 30 to 40 mph
Impacts:
Peak Wind Gust Image  Numerous ice and snow covered trees
limbs and power lines could be downed.
 Scattered to Numerous power outages
 Difficult travel conditions for high profile
vehicles
Timing:
 Sunday Afternoon into Monday.

Possible Flash Freeze Late Sunday
Arctic Blast Sunday Night into Monday
Hazards:
 Temperatures plummet into the teens and 20s
late Sunday, presenting potential for a Flash
Freeze of wet or slushy surfaces late Sunday
Afternoon into Sunday Night.
 Sunday Night:
 Low Temps: Single digits Interior
to around 10 for the coast
 Min Wind chills: -8 to -18 F
 Monday:
 High Temps: Lower to mid teens
 Wind chills: 0 to -10 F
Peak Wind Gust Image  Monday Night:
 Low Temps: Around 0 interior to
around 10 for the coast
 Wind chills: 0 to -10 F
Impacts:
 Black ice on surface will make for hazardous
travel conditions Sunday night into Monday
morning
 Hypothermia and frostbite with prolonged
exposure
Uncertainty/Forecast Scenarios:
 Depending on how quickly temperatures
plummet Sunday afternoon/evening, there is
potential for a flash freeze across coastal
portions of the region, including NYC.
Coastal Flooding
Coastal Flood Hazards and Impacts:
 Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coast
 Moderate coastal flooding with inundation of 1 to 2 ft above ground mainly for
vulnerable locales along the southern bays of NYC and Western Long Island and
along Western Long Island Sound
 Several waterfront road closures
 Minor damage to coastal properties
 Heavy rain during the times of high tide will exacerbate flooding Sunday morning
Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:

 8-12’ breaking waves along the Atlantic Oceanfront
 Beach erosion and flooding
 Localized dune erosion possible
Timing:
 During times of high tide Sunday Morning.

Event Summary
Winter Storm Watch in Effect for Much of the Region
 Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain late Saturday Into Sunday

 Interior of Lower Hudson Valley, Interior NE NJ, and Interior SW CT
 6-10” of Snow and Sleet
 1/10-1/4” of ice accum
 NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.
 3-6” of snow and sleet
 Trace to around 1/10” of ice accum
 Heavy Rain along the Coastal Plain late Saturday Night through
Sunday morning
 1 to 1 ½ inches
 Minor to Moderate Coastal Flood Impacts Sunday Morning
 Strong winds likely across the entire area Sunday afternoon into
Monday
 Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power outages
possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night
 Flash Freeze potential Sunday afternoon/night
 Frigid Temps Sunday Night through Monday Night
 Gale conditions eastern waters Saturday Night and all waters late
Sunday through Monday
Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
Around 6pm Friday Evening
Powerpoint Briefing
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Twitter:
Web:
http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
http://www.weather.gov/okx/
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
kNY
The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive,

do not use after 6 PM Friday (1/18/19).


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Significant Winter Storm Saturday Night

through Sunday Night

What Has Changed?

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Snow/Sleet • Snow/Sleet accum of 3-6” possible. NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island ,

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Mixed Precip: NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Strong Winds: Entire Tri-State Region

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Freshwater and Coastal Flooding: NE NJ, NYC metro and coast

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , much of Lower Hudson Valley and

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

Shoreline Hazards and Impacts:

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain late Saturday Into Sunday

The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive,

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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