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21, rue d’Artois, F-75008 PARIS http : //www.cigre.org C1-311 CIGRE 2014 A 100% renewable scenario for

21, rue d’Artois, F-75008 PARIS http : //www.cigre.org

C1-311

CIGRE 2014

A 100% renewable scenario for Venezuelan Power Generation Sector in 2050 and its costs

Santiago Bautista Herman Pentech Venezuela

SUMMARY

The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of two group of scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, low and high efficiency, the former based on the current policies and the second based on the assumption that energy efficiency will be in the core of the country´s energy policy. For each demand scenario, three supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU), a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies that achieved 50% reduction of GHG emissions in Venezuelan power generation in 2050 compared with the emissions of 2000, these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS) and the 100% renewable scenarios . In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the six scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the current available results. Even though this is an ongoing research, with the available partial results it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to reduce the power generation sector´s GHG emissions and a 100% renewable power generation sector is feasible, moreover, it is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions and necessary to achieve a 100% renewable scenario.

KEYWORDS

Renewable Energy, Energy planning, Green House Gas Emissions.

bautista@daad-alumni.de

1.

Venezuela´s power generation sector current situation

Venezuela is an energy resources rich country, not only for its vast and world known oil and gas reserves, estimated in 2009 as high as 211,173 million of oil barrels and 5,065 billion of standard m 3 respectively [1], but also for its renewable energy yield potential of different energy sources, such as wind, solar and hydro estimated as high as 1,038 TWh/y, 1,465 TWh/y and 246 TWh/y respectively [2]. Considering that in 2009 the Venezuelan total electricity net generation was 123.44 TWh [3] and its total primary energy consumption in 2008 was 745 TWh [4], it is clear that Venezuela has enough energy resources for its development in short and middle term, but the main question is: What path shall and will follow?, will support its power generation sector in thermal technologies or in the contrary will promote the use of renewable energy technologies?

Since its creation in May 2007, the state owned company CORPOELEC has been the responsible for generation, T&D and commercialization of electricity in Venezuela, and currently the company internal structure is based on its core process, presented before, and divided by geographical areas, considering the political division of the country plus the socialist plan of the nation guidelines. As a partial conclusion it can be said that Venezuelan electricity sector is dominated by a state owned company that work closely together with the Venezuelan state energy policy department and this situation is not going to change in the foreseeable future.

According to the national electricity sector reports issued between 05 and 09, the electricity and power demand in Venezuela grew an average close to 4%/y between 2001 and 2009. Although this high growth rate in electricity consumption seems logical in a developing country, if we compare the 2008 per capita electricity consumption of Venezuela (4,212 kWh/capita) with the per capita consumption of Latin America for the same period (1,956 kWh/capita) we would see that Venezuela’s consumption is higher than the region average. Furthermore, if we take a look to the electricity consumption of specific countries in the region in the same year, we would see that there is a very uneven distribution of electricity consumption in the South America, and Venezuela has the highest consumption by far. In fact, the Venezuelan per capita electricity consumption is comparable with the consumption of developed countries like Portugal (4,822 kWh/capita) and with the consumption of regions with severe winters like NON-OECD-Europe, where the consumption in 2008 was 3,378 kWh/capita. 1

Even more, if the Venezuelan energy intensity is studied between 1970 and 2010, we would see that its value passed from 0.07 kWh/ US$ 2010 of GDP ppp in 1970 to 0.30 kWh/US$ 2010 of GDP ppp in 2010, representing an average growth rate equal to 3.74%/y and this variable behaved as a linear curve in the studied period, actually if we do a linear regression we would see that the R 2 value is equal to 0.9236 in the studied period.

One factor that helps to understand this behavior is the existing electricity price policy in the country, where a relative high subsidy is implemented. The current average electricity price is below 2 USc 2010 /kWh, and this policy has been in the country, with different levels of magnitude, for almost fifty years, actually the average electricity price passed from 25.38 USc 2010 /kWh in 1960 [5] to 1.61 USc 2010 /kWh in 2010, representing an annual reduction rate high as 5.37%/y and this subsidizes price policy, and in general, the electrification of the country, has been seen as a fair way of distributing the oil rent inside the country transforming oil revenues into infrastructure and social welfare.[6]

This excessive demand and price policy leaves a big room for demand side management measurements, which can lead to a reduction of energy consumption keeping the same level of access to energy services in the general population.

1 It is important to mention that the data from others countries was obtain from the International Energy Agency (IEA) web page, whereas the Venezuelan per capita electricity consumption was calculated using the OPSIS-CNG data plus the population data from the Instituto

Nacional de Estadísticas (INE), which is the Venezuelan official office for the country statistics.

Furthermore, the Venezuelan power generation sector is driven by hydropower generation, actually in

  • 2009 85,962 GWh of a total of 124,272 GWh of electricity generated in the same year, were generated

by hydropower sources [7]. The rest of the energy produced in 2009, was generated by thermal power

plants, using either natural gas or refined products like diesel and fuel-oil.

Although this generation matrix may look good in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, have its physical limits. In 2009, the Caroní river flows (river that feeds the country’s major hydro power plants complex located in the south east region of Venezuela) were 13.50% lower than the historic flows of the river, and in December 31 st 2009 the Guri Dam level was 9.40 meters lower than the level in the 31 st of December 2008 [8]. This relative low level of the country´s main energy reservoir motivated the Venezuelan government to take measurements. On February 8 th 2010, through decree No 7,228 the Venezuelan government declared the national electricity service emergency for 60 days, this decree authorized the government to apply any measurement that they would considered necessary to overcome the crisis [9]

Among the measurements that the government took was power rationing in the country, general education and information programs in the nation in order to reduce the electricity demand and efficiency improvement programs in different sectors. Unfortunately the programs were regional and not part of a structured national policy. The power rationing was suspended on June 6 th 2010, nevertheless nowadays the rationing policy started again and there has been no particular long drought season and in 2013 the country suffered several black outs, that allow to conclude that the electricity crisis has not been overcome yet.

Moreover, if we consider that the quantity of thermal energy generated in the country by natural gas, gasoil and fuel-oil increased in absolutes terms by more than 26%, 56% and 23% respectively between

  • 2006 and 2009, it becomes clear that, although currently the Venezuelan power generation sector is

able to generate around 70% of the required electricity from renewable energy sources (hydropower), if the current trend in both, demand and supply continues to grow (business as usual scenario), the share of hydro power will decrease in Venezuelan power generation matrix in the near future and more thermal primary and secondary energy sources, like natural gas and gasoil, will be required for the national electricity market, reducing the value of Venezuelan oil exports.

The Venezuelan economy depends highly on the revenues generated from the oil production exports. The total value of Venezuelan exports in 2009 was USD 57.60 billion and 94.01% of this value was related to Venezuelan oil [10]. Considering that Venezuela is an active member of OPEC and therefore has an oil production quota that cannot be exceed it, the more oil Venezuela consumes internally the less oil it’s able to export, thus an increment of refined oil products in the power generation sector, in the Venezuelan case, does not only affect the environment due to the GHG emissions increment associated, but also affects Venezuela´s exports value.

Furthermore, there is a world growing awareness toward climate change and this may bring some changes in the way the energy is trade in the world in the medium and long term. These changes may include a world emissions trading system, like the one is already implemented inside the European Union. This possible scenario will bring consequences for Venezuela, not only for the reduction of world oil demand, but also for the necessaries costs that Venezuela will have to assume to adapt its production model to this new situation. If this scenario becomes real, a 100% renewable power generation sector could create a competitive advantage for Venezuelan production sector, compared to those countries that don’t take any measurement in the near future towards a sustainable national energy system.

Considering that the investment decisions in the power sector are based on long term analysis, it is important to analyze this particular sector in long terms frames and ask which is the technically possible least cost path, considering not only economics aspects, but also, environmental and social variables. Even more, a 100% renewable scenario creates the opportunity to support the GHG emissions reductions in other sectors of Venezuelan society, like the transport sector for example.

Unfortunately, this possible synergy is not presented in the partial results that have been obtained until know in this research, but they will be available in the final results of this research further in 2014 and will be published later in other papers and research products.

Based on these backgrounds it is proposed to analyze the actual and future situation of Venezuelan power generation sector, estimating the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions for a business as usual scenario in 2050, based on the national agencies statistics and plans and compare these results with the obtained results with two high renewable energy penetration, such as 50% GHG emissions reduction compared with the sector´s emissions in the year 2000, denoted as sustainable scenario (SUS), and a 100% renewable scenario.

This analysis can be used as a platform to change the current framework and build a better and more efficient power generation sector in Venezuela in the middle term. The developments of these three scenarios will allow the comparison of environmental, social and economic impacts between three different general national policies and can be used as a sensibility study over the advantages and disadvantages of each option.

Furthermore, a 100% renewable scenario will contribute to the construction of a sustainable development in Venezuela in the long term, supporting the development of local areas, the creation of local industries, jobs positions, enhance value-added economic activities and support income-earnings activities in rural and urban areas as well.

  • 2. Methodology and tools

The present research is a descriptive study and the partial results presented and discussed in this paper are limited to the Venezuelan power generation sector, nevertheless complete research includes the possible synergy between the power sector and transport sector and these results were not available at the moment this paper was written. The quantitative approach was used and the existing interconnection between the Venezuelan national grid with neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil was omitted in the study.

Even though in other 100% renewable studies, such as statement No 15 of the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU for it’s for its acronyms in German), the scenario of Germany complete self-sufficient 100% renewable was developed only as a reference case in order to be able to compare the other two groups of developed scenarios results [11], in the Venezuelan case, a scenario with a certain level of annual interchange of energy with neighboring countries will required a political and institutional framework that doesn’t exist at current time; thus these scenarios were not considered under this study scope.

For the present research, the period 2005-2010 was used as reference for the demand and generation matrix analysis. Six scenarios of demand and supply structures were built between 2011 and 2050 and the year 2010 was used as a base year.

In order to show coherent technical and economic analysis of how renewable energy can be implemented, and what effect these energy sources would have on other parts of the energy system, a computer tool can be used to support the scenarios building process [12]; the author chose the following computer tool: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP).

The selection of LEAP as computer tool was based on the fact that is an integrated modeling tool that can be used to track energy consumption, production, and resource extraction in all sectors of an economy; support top-down macroeconomics modeling of demand and its functions use an annual time-step, supporting a long time horizon; on the supply side, it provides a range of accounting and simulation methodologies for modeling electricity generation and capacity expansion planning. LEAP also includes a scenario manager that facilitates the comparison between scenarios results [13]. This

last characteristic is a key element for the software selection for this research, due to the relatively high number of scenarios to be considered and developed.

Regarding the research limitations, it is relevant to mention that for the development of 50% GHG emissions reduction and 100% renewable scenario neither nuclear nor carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies were considered; because even though these are technologies considered as low carbon technologies, cannot be regarded as viable long term solutions for a sustainable energy supply, for the following reasons, among others: CCS capacity is limited, and therefore there is the possibility of conflicts between CCS and other underground, the still unsolved problem of final nuclear waste disposal, limited availability of worldwide uranium resources and other costs and risk associated with nuclear power [14]. Tidal and wave energy were neglected for lack of information on the energy yield value and resources availability in the Venezuelan case.

  • 3. Resources available

In table I the available renewable and depletable resources’ in Venezuela for its power generation sector are presented, note that the depletable resources are compared with the depletion year, whereas the renewable resources are compared with the electricity generated in the country in 2010. From the numbers presented in the table it is clear that Venezuela has all the energy resources necessary for its development, the main question is What resources will use?, will support its development in depletable resources such as oil and gas? or in the contrary will promote the use of renewable energy technologies, thus in the Venezuelan case is only a matter of choice.

The hydro power annual energy yield and estimated installed capacity was obtained from a reference of the World Energy Council [17], while the wind and solar potentials were obtained based on author estimations. In the case of wind power, only the areas with relative high annual wind mean velocities were considered (above 7 m/s) and with the exception of La Guajira area, where real measured velocities were available, a Rayleigh distribution for the wind probability was used and the same wind turbine load curve that was installed « La Guajira” case. In all cases 9 turbines per km 2 was considered, which is equivalent to more than 5 times the turbine diameter of separation between units. Note that the wind total energy yield represents 8.56 times the total Venezuelan electricity generation in 2010.

In the case of solar power, only the urban and sparse or barren vegetation areas of the country were considered for the annual energy yield estimation, together with a potential of 4 kWh/m 2 /day [18] and PV efficiency high as 10%.

Table I: Available depletable and renewable resources for Venezuelan Power Generation sector.

Depletable Resourse

Reserve in 2010

2010 extraction rate

Depletion year

Petroleum

296,501 (mb)

2854 (1000 b/d)

2295

Natural Gas

   

2088

Coal

5,525 (billions m 3 ) 479 (m t)

71.08 (billions m 3 ) 4 (m t)

2130

 

Annual Yield

Estimate Installed

Comparison with 2010

Renewable Resoruces

(TWh/y)

Capacity (GW)

electricity generation

Hydro Power (Technical potential)

246

43.20

2.11

 

130

22.83

1.11

Hydro Power (Econ. potential) Wind Power

998

307

8.56

Solar Power

1,471.81

806.47

12.62

Biomass (MSW) in 2010

2.64-3.88

0.26-0.38

0.023-0.033

Biomass (Waste Water) in 2010

0.49-0.57

0.065-0.078

0.0042-0.0049

Biomass (Agriculture waste) in 2010

2.80-3.27

0.52-0.61

0.024-0.028

 

1.24-3.69

0.17-0.50

0.011-0.032

Energy Crops Pump Storage

31.58

13.98

0.27

Source: Author (2013) based on [15], [16],[17],[18],[19]

Biomass as with wind and solar energy was estimated by the author, note that in order to avoid the drawbacks and concerns about the real sustainability associated to the use of biomass in the energy sector, only biodegradable municipal solid waste (MSW), sewage sludge, farms waste and lingo- cellulosic biomass, including energy crops and agricultural waste was considered. Even more, for this research purpose the theoretical potential were not used, because this potential is not sustainable, and with the current energy prices policies in Venezuela, it is clear that there is no economically feasible bioenergy technology, hence only the technical potential was considered and used.

The theoretical potential is the biomass supply as limited only by the biophysical conditions, whereas the technical potential considerers the limitations of the biomass production practices assumed to be employed and also takes into account other services demands, such as food, fodder, fiber, forest products and area requirements for human infrastructure. Also consider restrictions connected to nature conservation and soil/water/biodiversity preservation [19]

In the case of pump storage the author estimated this potential considering the height and distance in the existing hydro dams in Venezuela, and estimated the energy required to pump the water upstream the dams per cubic meter and compared this value with the energy obtained from the same complex per cubic meter. The presented annual energy yield considered the real availability of the plants, together with the excess energy that would be available in the country with a relative high wind energy penetration scenario.

Note that all the estimations done by the author are rather conservative and are sustainable, thus the values presented in table I can be used in the SUS and 100%RE scenario without raising questions regarding the sustainability criteria used to estimate the annual energy yields of technologies, such as biomass and solar power. Even more, there are technologies that were not considered such as off-shore wind power that are not presented en table I but can support in the future Venezuela´s development.

  • 4. Basic assumptions

In this section the main common assumptions used to developed all scenarios are presented

  • 4.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The GDP was selected as main variable to express the expected economic growth of Venezuela between 2011 and 2050. For this research purpose between 2010 and 2030 the estimated oil prices growth rates in terms of real values assumed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their 2008 World Energy Outlook (WEO) were used to estimate the Venezuelan GDP grow rate [20], whereas between 2031 and 2050 an annual growth rate equal to 3.00% was considered, value that is similar to the expected growth rate of Latin America for the period by OPEC and IEA.

  • 4.2 Population

The population expected behavior between 2010 and 2050 was obtained from Venezuela´s national statistics institute (INE for its acronym in Spanish).

  • 4.3 Technology performance

In order to be able to compare the results of different scenarios it is necessary to establish a common base of the expected performance of each considered technology, because it is obvious that technological innovation and the rate of deployment of new technologies for supplying or using energy have a major impact on energy balances, both in terms of the overall amount of electricity used and the fuel mix of the studied periods [21]. The expected life time per technology was obtained from the 2008 WOE of the IEE [22], while the expected thermal efficiency of each technology was estimated by the author based on assumption used by Energy Information Administration office (EIA) in their Annual energy outlook 2010 [23]

4.4

Costs

For this research purpose the following costs were considered

Capital Cost, expressed in US$ 2010 /kW installed.

Fix Operation and Maintenance costs (O&M), expressed in US$ 2010 /kW installed.

Variable Operation and Maintenance costs (O&M), expressed in US$ 2010 /kWh generated.

Fuel costs, expressed in US$ 2010 per unit.

In the case of capital costs per technology the reference costs used by CORPOELEC were considered [24], while in the O&M costs, both fix and variable, were obtained from the 2011 assumptions used by the US EIA in their Annual Energy Outlook [25]

Even though, in Venezuela fossil fuels are highly subsidized, the future fossil fuel prices were estimated based on the expected international prices, presented by the IEA in their 2008 WEO assumptions for the reference scenario [20]. This criterion was based on the opportunity cost principle.

In the case of biofuels, the price assumption change according to the feedstock. For MSW, waste water and agriculture waste, it was assumed that these feedstock were free, but for biofuels such biodiesel, it was assumed that by 2030 the biofuels price will be competitive with diesel prices, this assumption is based on the fact that the US department of energy is supporting the development of demonstrations plants in the United States with the aim of making cellulosic ethanol cost competitive with gasoline by 2012 [26], thus the assumption that biodiesel will be competitive by 2030 is rather conservative. It is relevant to mention that only by 2030 biomass power plants were considered, hence this price those not affect the model before this year.

  • 4.5 Environmental Load

To estimate the environmental load for each plant in all scenarios, the tier 1 approach of the IPCC 2006 guidelines was used.

  • 4.6 T&D losses and System load curve

The transmission and distribution (T&D) loses were estimated high as 12% in 2010 and was considered to remain constant until 2050 in all scenarios. In all scenarios the same system load curve was used, the 2007 Venezuelan electricity system load curve [27]

  • 4.7 Capacity Credit.

The capacity credit value is defined as the fraction of the rated capacity considered firm for the purposes of calculating the module reserve margin, this mean the power installed capacity that is considered firm. Obviously this value depends on the technology and the ability to predict the feedstock or energy resources availability. For thermal power plants, normally the capacity credit is considered high as 100%, but for renewable plants this value is lower.

In all scenarios, the capacity credit of gas turbines, diesel motors, steam turbines and combined cycles was considered to be high as 100%. In the case of existing steam turbines the capacity credit was considered only 80%, this criterion was based on the fact that the availability in 2010 of Steam Turbine cycles in Venezuela was 49.76%

In the case of Hydro power plants the firm energy capacity or availability was used as capacity credit, while for biomass and biofuels plants the capacity credit was considered as 100%, because this technology is basically a thermal power plant with a biomass or biofuels as feedstock.

In the case of wind and solar power, a variable and only partly predictable source of power generation is introduced to a power system that has to balance generation and varying demands at all times, thus the capacity factor and the amount of wind and solar power and energy that can be integrated depends on several factors and have impacts that have to be managed through proper wind plant interconnection, integration of the generation, transmission planning, and system and market operations [28]

Holttinen et al in 2009 studied the capacity credit behavior for 8 different locations and the results were considerable spread. One reason for different resulting levels arises from the wind regime at the wind power plants sites and the dimensioning of wind turbines. It also can be seen that for near zero penetration levels, all capacity credits values are in the range of the capacity factor (availability) of the evaluated wind power plant installation, while the capacity credit is reduced when the penetration is increased and the impact of wind power penetration over the capacity credit change in each location

[29]

For this research a 15% of capacity credit for La Guajira location was considered, due to its high capacity factor, while only 10% for the rest of locations. These criteria are conservative, considering the high capacity factors presented for each location, nevertheless was chosen based on the lack of detailed information of the wind regime for all the considered locations. It is relevant to mention that the used values are higher than the values presented by Holttinen et al in Germany but lower than the values measured in Ireland. [29]

In the case of PV system a capacity credit of 10% was used, based on the stable behavior of the total radiation and sunshine radiation per month that this resource has in Venezuela. For the energy storage technologies, a 100% capacity credit was considered, because is precisely for this specific service that these technologies are considered and applied.

5.

Demand

As was presented and discussed above two different energy and power demand scenarios were considered, the first is based demand scenario is denoted as low efficiency scenario and is based on Venezuela´s last official long term energy and power demand projection, that was published in 2005, known as National Electric Service Development Plan 2005-2024 (PDSEN for its acronym in Spanish)

In PDSEN 2005 a low and high demand scenario between 2005 and 2024 were presented, based on different macro-economic performance [30] and without considering any change in the way the energy is used inside the country, actually if the real electricity and power demand are compared with PDSEN projections between 2005 and 2010 we would see that the real values were in the estimated range, thus PDSEN projections in the middle term were successful to predict the national energy and power demand behavior.

For the low efficiency scenario between 2011 and 2024 the author used a middle demand scenario, and this scenario is no more than the mathematical average between the high and low demand scenarios presented in PDSEN 2005, unfortunately after 2024 there is no official publication over future energy demand projections in Venezuela, actually since December 2010 none official publications over the power plants performance and energy demand behavior has been published.

As was presented above a common GDP growth behavior for all scenarios was considered and if we use the estimated GDP values between 2011 and 2024 together with the projected electricity demand, an estimated energy intensity value can be calculated using a constant monetary reference such as

US$ 2010 .

Under this assumptions, it is expected to observe and increment in energy intensity in the middle term, actually in the studied period, the energy intensity passed from 0.33 US$ 2010 /kWh in 2004 to 0.53US$ 2010 /kWh in 2024, with an inter-annual increment rate equal to 2.28%/y.

In order to estimate the energy demand between 2024 and 2050, the author assumed that the inter- annual increment rate of the energy intensity observed between 2004 and 2024 was kept until 2050, based on the estimated GDP ppp and the expected energy intensity, the total energy demand was calculated. It is relevant to note, that under this assumption between 2011 and 2050 the inter-annual energy demand growth rate would be 4.8 %/y, value that is between the low and high demand scenario presented in PDSEN 2005 between 2004 and 2024. In the case of the power demand, in all scenarios these values were estimated with the support of LEAP and the system curve that was presented and discussed above.

From the PDSEN results, it is clear that Venezuelan power generation sector has been planned until know following the traditional energy planning methodology, where the use of resources is incremented to satisfy the expected demand increments with a relative high reliability, minimizing the cost of such expansion [31]

Bautista and Montiel proposed the implementation of the Integrated Resources Planning (IRP) methodology in one specific region of the country, located in Zulia state, in the Venezuelan north-west border [32]. IRP is the combination of the different technologies available in the market to satisfy the demand, with demand side management (DSM) activities and policies, in order to provide the same level of energy services at a lower cost, including the social and environmental cost of power generation, transmission and distribution sectors [33].

In their proposal Bautista and Montiel used a time horizon of 20 years and they developed three scenarios, low demand, high demand and energy efficiency for Zulia region power generation sector until 2030. The low and high demand scenarios were based on macroeconomic traditional energy demand projection models, developed in CORPOELEC´s regional planning office, while the energy efficiency scenario was based on the activities analysis of each user, based on CORPOELEC Zulia available data base [34].

In order to achieve the expected improvement in the energy efficiency of Zulia state the authors proposed a series of programs that implies, in some cases, a change of technology or in other cases, only a change in the way the energy is use. The energy efficiency programs considered by Bautista and Montiel to build the energy efficiency scenario in Zulia state were:

Change the structure of the electricity tariff system, towards a system based in the activity

level and energy consumption level of each user. Programs of continuous energy audits and visits, that include specific SMS message for each

user, visits to the high consumption users, energy efficiency web page with a tool that allows estimating the energy saving potential of each user that choose to visit the site. Increase the amount of energy consumption measurement devices installed in the network,

because currently there are several users without any measurement device installed and/or connected illegally to the distribution network. Create energy consumption standards per sector and activity.

Based on this proposal, the author estimated the energy saving potential at a national level per proposed program, the results are presented in table II. Note that under these assumptions the total energy demand in 2050 is more than 4 times smaller than under the BAU assumptions, note that the author proposed the use of solar water heater in hotels, hospitals and households, with a final expected penetration of 80% in 2050.

Table II: Energy Saving potential in 2050 per EE proposed program. Description Energy demand in 2050 (Low Demand Scenario)

   

Value

Unit

 
   

784,091.67

GWh

Energy demand in 2050 (High Demand Scenario)

   

188,281.03

GWh

Solar Water Heaters

   

7,922

GWh

 

1.33%

%

Energy Audits, SMS, tariff system, Energy Measurement equipments and EE

 

320,865.23

GWh

Web page in residential sector savings

 

53.85%

%

Energy Audits and Visits, tariff system and EE standards in Industrial and

 

267,023.18

GWh

Commercial sector savings

 

44.82%

%

Source: Author (2013)

 

In general, under the high efficiency scenario assumptions, the average annual growth rate between 2010 and 2050 is 1.23%/y, which is considerably lower than the assumed annual growth in the low efficiency scenario (4.60%/y), and this result is consistent with the assumptions taken in each scenario.

6.

Partial results and conclusions

 

In tables II and IV the main partial results, obtained until know in this research are presented.

 

Table 3: Main results for energy and power demand and energy resources available

 
 

Indicator

   

Unit

 

Value

   

Residential

1.78

Commercial

2.05

Guayana Ind.

1.34

Electricity price per sector in 2010

   

USc$ 2010 /kWh

Industry

1.57

   

Official / Others

1.43

Average

1.61

Amount Non-technical losses in 2010

   

GWh

 

32,329.00

Value of Non-technical losses between 2002 and

   
  • 2010 (Average electricity price)

   

million of US$ 2010

 

8,159.00

Value of Non-technical losses between 2002 and

   
  • 2010 (Estimated real generation cost)

   

million of US$ 2011

 

18,803.00

   

Residential

21,559

Commercial

13,304

Energy consumption per sector

   

GWh/y

Guayana Ind.

24,746

(year 2007)

Industry

8,640

   

Official / Others

13,541

Losses

32,726

Energy demand in 2050 (Low η Scenario)

   

GWh

 

784,091.67

Energy demand in 2050 (High η Scenario)

   

GWh

 

188,281.03

Peak load demand in 2050 (Low η Scenario)

 

GW

 

127.46

   

GW

 

30.6

Peak load demand in 2050 (High η Scenario) Source: Author (2013)

 

Table IV: Main partial results for the BAU and SUS scenarios in 2050

 
 

Unit

Base Year

BAU Low

BAU High

 

SUS Low

SUS High

(2010)

(2050)

(2050)

(2050)

(2050)

Total GHG emissions

 

28.29

306.33

42.50

 

6.83

5.44

Per

Capita

GHG

mill. tCO 2-equiv

0.99

 

7.55

1.05

 

0.17

0.13

 

emissions

tCO 2-equiv /cap

Specific

GHG

kgCO 2-

0.24

 

0.34

0.20

 

0.0087

0.0289

 

emissions

equiv /kWh

Total

Installed

           

Capacity

GW

24.94

172.37

45.60

 

363.07

64.98

Installed

capacity

Thermal

40.69%

80.61%

52.96%

 

26.99%

24.65%

matrix (%)

 

Hydro

59.31%

10.13%

38.30%

7.70%

43.00%

 

Wind

0.00%

8.96%

8.47%

64.59%

29.66%

Solar

0.00%

0.29%

0.27%

0.29%

0.27%

Biomass

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.43%

2.41%

Energy generated

 

GWh

116,883.49

891,013.30

213,955.68

891,013.30

213,955.68

Per

Capita

Energy

kWh/cap

4,097.14

21,946.14

5,269.84

21,946.14

5,269.84

generated Source: Author (2013)

 

From table IV it is relevant to mention the weight of commercial losses represented more than 28% of the total energy dispatched in the country in 2007, considering that this is energy that was dispatched but not billed, this amount represented between 2002 and 2010 8,159 millions of US$ 2010 with the average electricity price, even more, if the real generation cost, considering international fuel prices is used, this amount increases to 18,803 million of US$ 2010 .

Considering this results, it can be concluded that is important to reduce this commercial losses and under the high efficiency scenario it is assumed that the increment of energy consumption measurement devices installed in the network will contribute to reduce this energy losses.

If the per capita electricity consumption is analyzed in both demands, we would see that in 2050, under the low efficiency scenario assumptions the per capita energy consumption would be 19,312 kWh/cap, and even though this number seems to be high, is comparable in order of magnitude with the current per capita electricity consumption of other oil producer countries such as Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, hence is the author opinion that considering the energy resources available in Venezuela and if the financial resources are available, this relative high per capita consumption is feasible in the long term

Moreover, under the assumptions of high efficiency scenario in 2050, the annual per capita electricity consumption is 5,269.84 kWh/cap. This amount represents an inter-annual growth rate equal to 0.63%/y. This value is still high compared with the current energy consumption in Latin-America, but if we consider that in 40 years the appliance energy efficiency for sure will increase, it can be concluded that this consumption level will guarantee an increment in the access to the services that the energy provides will increase.

In terms of GHG emissions, under the BAU scenarios the total emissions increased 6.14%/y and 1.02%/y in the low and high efficiency scenario in the studied period, thus it is clear that only reducing the demand will help to reduce the expected GHG emissions in 2050 by more than seven times. If we consider that the total estimated costs of the proposed energy efficiency is $2,848 million US$ 2010 the saved t-CO 2-equiv had a cost of 10.79 US$ 2010 /t-CO 2-equiv , plus the cost of the liquid fuel saved and the total installation costs, thus it is clear that assuming the same power generation matrix the high efficiency scenario always has a lower total cost than the low efficiency scenario.

Another interesting result is that the installed capacity, under the same demand assumptions is always higher in the sustainable development scenario than in the BAU scenarios and it is expected that it will be even higher under the 100% renewable energy scenario. In terms of total costs

In terms of generation matrix the results are consistent with the assumptions’ considered in all scenarios, note that under the SUS assumptions the thermal power installed capacity is relatively high (close to 25% in both scenarios), this is due to the fact that these technologies were used to increase the reserve margin, and even though the plants are installed it is expected that the annual running time would be very low.

Table V : Total generation costs in millions US$ 2010

BAU Low

BAU High

SUS Low

SUS High

(2050)

(2050)

(2050)

(2050)

130,978.96

19,256.01

98,902.48

11,981.52

The total generation costs are presented in table

V, note that in all scenarios the total cost under

the SUS generation matrix is always lower than

under the BAU generation matrix, this result is basically due to the expected future fuel costs.

As conclusion it can be said that Venezuela has all the resources to achieve a 100% renewable power generation sector in 2050, nevertheless a strong change the current policy framework has to be done, moreover it is expected that this scenarios total costs will be lower than the total costs under the BAU assumptions and close to the SUS scenarios costs.

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