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H84 SPC

Lesson 2- Fundamentals of Statistics

Lesson-2 1
Statistical Tools for Process Control

Check sheets Pareto analysis


Scatter Plots Histograms
Run Charts Control charts
Cause & effect diagrams

2
Check sheets explore what and where
an event of interest is occurring.
Attribute Check Sheet
Order Types 7am-9am 9am-11am 11am-1pm 1pm-3pm 3pm-5-pm

Emergency

Nonemergency

Rework

Safety Stock

Prototype Order

Other

27 15 19 20 28 3
Run Charts
measurement

time
Look for patterns and trends…

4
SCATTERPLOTS x x x
x x x xx
x x x
x xx x x x
x x xx x
xx x x x
x xx x x x
xx xx xx
x xx xxx x x x

x x
x xx xx
xx x
xx
x
Larger values of
x
xx
xxx xx
xxx x x xx
x x variable A appear to
x
x
x xx
x x xx
xx x
x
x be associated with
x
x
xx
xxx
xxx x
xx
x
xx xxx
x
x larger values of
x x x xx x x x variable B.
x x x xx
x x xx x x
xx x x x

Variable B
5
HISTOGRAMS
A statistical tool used to show the extent
and type of variance within the system.

Outcome 6
PARETO ANALYSIS
A method for identifying and separating
the vital few from the trivial many.
Percentage of Occurrences

A
B
C
D
EF
G H I J

Factor
7
We will focus on CONTROL CHARTS

Lesson-3 8
Process Variation

9
Have you ever…
• Shot a rifle?
• Played darts? A

• Shot a round of golf?


• Played basketball?

Who is the better shot?


Lesson-3 10
Discussion
• What do you measure in your process?
• Why do those measures matter?
• Are those measures consistently the same?
• Why not?

Lesson-3 11
Variability
• Deviation = distance between 8
7
observations and the mean (or 10
8
average) 9

Observations Deviations
A
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4
averages 8.4 0.0
B
Lesson-3 12
Variability
• Deviation = distance between
observations and the mean (or
average)
A
Observations Deviations
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4
7 7 – 6.6 = 0.4 7
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 6
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 7
7
averages 6.6 0.0 B
6
Lesson-3 13
Or

Lesson-3 14
Variability
8
• Variance = average distance between 7
10
observations and the mean squared 8
9

A
Observations Deviations Squared Deviations
10 10 - 8.4 = 1.6 2.56
9 9 – 8.4 = 0.6 0.36
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
8 8 – 8.4 = -0.4 0.16
7 7 – 8.4 = -1.4 1.96
B
averages 8.4 0.0 1.0 Variance
Lesson-3 15
Variability
• Variance = average distance between
observations and the mean squared
A

Observations Deviations Squared Deviations


7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16
0.16
7
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4
6
7 7 - 6.6 = 0.4 0.16 7
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 0.36 7
6 6 – 6.6 = -0.6 0.36 6 B
averages 6.6 0.0 0.24 Variance
Lesson-3 16
Variability
• Standard deviation = square root of
variance A

Variance Standard
Deviation
A 1.0 1.0
B 0.24 0.4898979 B

But what good is a standard deviation


Lesson-3 17
Variability

The world tends to


be bell-shaped

Even very rare Fewer Most outcomes Fewer Even very rare
outcomes are in the occur in the in the outcomes are
possible “tails” middle “tails” possible
(probability > 0) (lower) (upper) (probability > 0)

Lesson-3 18
“Normal” bell shaped curve

Add up about 30 of most things


and you start to be “normal”

Normal distributions are divide up


into 3 standard deviations on
each side of the mean

Once your that, you


know a lot about
what is going on

Lesson-3 19
Usual or unusual?
1. One observation falls outside 3
standard deviations?
2. One observation falls in zone
A?
3. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone A?
4. 2 out of 3 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
5. 4 out of 5 observations fall in
one zone B or beyond?
6. 8 consecutive points above the
mean, rising, or falling?
X XX
XX 1X XXX2 3 4 5 6 78

Lesson-3 20
Theory of Variance
• Variation causes many problems for most processes
• Causes of variation are either “common” or “special”
• Variation can be either “controlled” or “uncontrolled”
• Management is responsible for most variation

Categories of Variation

Common Cause Special Cause

Controlled Variation Management Employee


Uncontrolled Variation Management Management

21
Causes of Variation
What prevents perfection? Process variation...

Natural Causes Assignable Causes

 Inherent to process • Exogenous to process


 Random • Not random
• Controllable
 Cannot be controlled
• Preventable
 Cannot be prevented
• Examples
 Examples – tool wear
– weather – “Monday” effect
– accuracy of measurements – poor maintenance
– capability of machine

22
Specification vs. Variation
• Product specification
– desired range of product attribute
– part of product design
– length, weight, thickness, color, ...
– nominal specification
– upper and lower specification limits
• Process variability
– inherent variation in processes
– limits what can actually be achieved
– defines and limits process capability
• Process may not be capable of meeting
specification!

23
Limits
• Process and Control limits:
– Statistical
– Process limits are used for individual items
– Control limits are used with averages
– Limits = μ ± 3σ
– Define usual (common causes) & unusual (special causes)
• Specification limits:
– Engineered
– Limits = target ± tolerance
– Define acceptable & unacceptable

Lesson-3 24
Process vs. control limits
Distribution of averages

Control limits
Specification limits

Variance of averages < variance of individual items

Distribution of individuals

Process limits

Lesson-3 25
Usual v. Unusual,
Acceptable v. Defective

A B C D E

μ Target

Lesson-3 26
More about limits
Good quality:
defects are rare
(Cpk>1)

μ
target

μ Poor quality: defects


target
are common (Cpk<1)
Cpk measures “Process Capability”
If process limits and control limits are at theLesson-3
same location, Cpk = 1. Cpk ≥ 2 is exceptional. 27
Process Capability
LSL Spec USL Process variation

Capable process

(Very) capable process

Process not capable


Process Centering
LSL Spec USL

Capable and centered

Capable, but not centered

Not capable, and


not centered
Going out of control
• When an observation is unusual, what can we
conclude?
The mean
has changed

μ1 μ2

Lesson-3 30
Going out of control
• When an observation is unusual, what can we
conclude?

The standard deviation


σ1 has changed

σ2

Lesson-3 31
Process Centering -- Example
For the granola bar manufacturer, if the process is
incorrectly centered at 2.05 instead of 2.00 ounces, what
fraction of bars will be out of specification?

LSL=1.95 2.0 USL=2.05


Out of spec!

50% of production will be out of specification! 32


Process Capability Index Cpk
Std dev 

Mean 
   LSL USL   
C pk  min  , 
 3 3 
• If Cpk > 1.0, process is... Centered & capable
• If Cpk < 1.0, process is... Not centered &/or not capable

33
Calculating the limits
Use formula to find limits for x-bar chart:
X  A2 R
Use formulas to find limits for R chart:

LCL  D3 R UCL  D4 R

A2 , D3 and D4 : from a table

Lesson-3 34
x & R Chart Parameters
n d(2) d(3) A(2) D(3) D(4)
2 1.128 0.853 1.881 0.000 3.269
3 1.693 0.888 1.023 0.000 2.574
4 2.059 0.880 0.729 0.000 2.282
5 2.326 0.864 0.577 0.000 2.114
6 2.534 0.848 0.483 0.000 2.004
7 2.704 0.833 0.419 0.076 1.924
8 2.847 0.820 0.373 0.136 1.864
9 2.970 0.808 0.337 0.184 1.816
10 3.078 0.797 0.308 0.223 1.777
11 3.173 0.787 0.285 0.256 1.744
12 3.258 0.778 0.266 0.284 1.716
16 3.532 0.750 0.212 0.363 1.637
17 3.588 0.744 0.203 0.378 1.622
18 3.640 0.739 0.194 0.391 1.609
19 3.689 0.734 0.187 0.403 1.597
20 3.735 0.729 0.180 0.414 1.586
21 3.778 0.724 0.173 0.425 1.575
22 3.819 0.720 0.167 0.434 1.566
23 3.858 0.716 0.162 0.443 1.557
24 3.895 0.712 0.157 0.452 1.548
25 3.931 0.708 0.153 0.460 1.540

35
Let’s try a small problem
smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6
observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
x-bar
R

X-bar chart R chart

UCL

Centerline

LCL

Lesson-3 36
Let’s try a small problem

smpl 1 smpl 2 smpl 3 smpl 4 smpl 5 smpl 6 Avg.


observation 1 7 11 6 7 10 10
observation 2 7 8 10 8 5 5
observation 3 8 10 12 7 6 8
X-bar 7.3333 9.6667 9.3333 7.3333 7 7.6667 8.0556
R 1 3 6 1 5 5 3.5

X-bar chart R chart


UCL 11.6361 9.0125
Centerline 8.0556 3.5
LCL 4.4751 0

Lesson-3 37
X-bar chart
14.0000
12.0000 11.6361
10.0000
8.0000 8.0556

6.0000
4.4751
4.0000
2.0000
0.0000
1 2 3 4 5 6

Lesson-3 38
R chart
10
9.0125
8
6

4 3.5
2

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6

Lesson-3 39
Interpreting charts
• Observations outside control limits indicate
the process is probably “out-of-control”
• Significant patterns in the observations
indicate the process is probably “out-of-
control”
• Random causes will on rare occasions indicate
the process is probably “out-of-control” when
it actually is not

Lesson-3 40
Chart advice
• Larger samples are more accurate
• Sample costs money, but so does being out-of-control
• Don’t convert measurement data to “yes/no” binomial data
(X’s to P’s)
• Not all out-of control points are bad
• Don’t combine data (or mix product)
• Have out-of-control procedures (what do I do now?)
• Actual production volume matters (Average Run Length)

Lesson-3 41