KATHMANDU UNIVERSITY Q.
4 In 15 experiments studying electrical behavior of single cells 11 use
SS-2017, Assignment II
Subject: MATH 208 (Probability and Statistics) Deadline:
Instructor: Dr. Samir Shrestha
Q.1 At an electronics plant, it is known from past experience that the probability is
0.86 that a new worker who attended the company’s training program will
meet the production quota and that the corresponding probability is 0.35 for a
new worker who has not attended the company’s training program. If 80% of
the all new workers attended the training program, what is the probability
that a new worker will meet the production quota? And also find the
probability that a new worker who meets the production quota will have
attended the company’s training program.
[Ans. P(Q) = 0.758, P(T/Q) = 0.9077]
Q.2 An experiment has four possible mutually exclusively outcomes A, B, C and D.
Check whether the following assignments of probability are permissible:
a) 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.3, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.4, 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.11, 𝑃 𝐷 = 0.02
b) 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.32, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.27, 𝑃 𝐶 = −0.06, 𝑃 𝐷 = 0.47
c) 𝑃 𝐴 = 0.25, 𝑃 𝐵 = 0.5, 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.75, 𝑃 𝐷 = −0.50
d) 𝑃 𝐴 =
5
,𝑃 𝐵 =
1
,𝑃 𝐶 =
1
,𝑃 𝐷 =
2 has the disease. If the disease is actually present, the probability that
18 6 3 9
Q.3
a) State the general addition rule of probability. What is its form if concerned
events are mutually exclusively?
b) An explosion in LPG storage tank in the process of being repaired could
have occurred as the result of Static Electricity (SE), Malfunctioning
electrical Equipment (MEE), an Open Flame in Contact with the Liner
(OFCL), or Purposeful Action (PA) (industrial sabotage). Interviews with
engineers who were analyzing the risks involved led to estimates that such
as explosion would occur with probability 0.25 as a result of SE, 0.20 as a
result of MEE, 0.40 as a result of OFCL and 0.75 as a result of PA. These
interviews alos yielded subjective estimates of the prior probabilities of
these four causes of 0.30, 0.40, 0.15 and 0.15 respectively.
a. What is the probability of explosion in an LPG storage tank?
b. What is the probability that an explosion occurred in an LPG
storage tank caused by Purposeful Action (PA)?
[Ans. (a) P (E) =0.3275 (b) P (PA/E) = 0.3435]
microelectrodes made of metal and the other 4 use microelectrodes made
from glass tubing. If 2 of the experiments are to be terminated for financial
reasons and they are selected at random. What are the probabilities that
i. Neither uses microelectrodes made from glass tubing?
ii. Only one use microelectrodes made from glass tubing?
[Ans. (a) 0.5238 (b) 0.419]
Q.5 Ram, Shyam and Hari fill orders in a fast food restaurant. Ram incorrectly fills
20% of the orders he takes. Shyam incorrectly fills 12% of the orders he takes.
Hari incorrectly fills 5% of the order he takes. Ram fills 30% of all orders.
Shyam fills 45% of all orders and Hari fills 25% of all orders. An order has just
been filled. Who filled the order is unknown, but the order was filled
incorrectly. What is the probability that Shyam filled the order?
[Ans. 0.4269]
Q.6 What is the difference between a simple and a compound event? How
can you use the addition rule to find the probability of occurrence of
event A or B?
The probability that a person has a certain disease is 0.03. Medical
diagnostic tests are available to determine whether the person actually
the medical diagnostic test will give a positive result (indicating that the
disease is present) is 0.90. If the disease is not actually present, the
probability of a positive test result (indicating that the disease is
present) is 0.02. What is the probability of a positive test result?
Suppose that the medical diagnostic test has given a positive result
(indicating that the disease is present). What is the probability that the
disease is actually present?
Ans. P(Positive)= 0.0464, P(Disease|Positive)= 0.58189
Q.7 What is the probability of obtaining the sum of 15 with 3 dice?
Ans. 10/216
Q.8 A factory has two machines A and B, which produce 70% and 30% of
the total output, respectively. It has been found that 20% and 10%
respectively of the items produced by machine A and B are defective.
An item from the output is drawn at random and found to be defective.
What is the probability that it was made by (i) machine A (ii) machine B.
Ans. (i) 0.823529 (ii) 0.176471
Q.9 An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say A and B.
From previous testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed
to be known:
𝑃 𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 = 0.20, 𝑃 𝐵 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑒 = 0.15, 𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙 = 0.15
Evaluate the following probabilities
𝑎) 𝑃 𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝐵 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑) 𝑏) 𝑃(𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑒)
Ans. a) 0.5, b) 0.05
Q.10 What is the probability of obtaining the sum of 15 with 3 dice?
Q.11 A factory has two machines A and B, which produce 70% and 30% of
the total output, respectively. It has been found that 20% and 10%
respectively of the items produced by machine A and B are defective. An
item from the output is drawn at random and found to be defective. What is
the probability that it was made by (i) machine A (ii) machine B.
Ans. (i) 0.823529 (ii) 0.17647
Q.12 Three facilities L&T, H&M and C&A supply microprocessors to a
manufacturer of telemetry equipment. 15% of time they receive
microprocessors from L&T, 80% of time from H&M and 5% of time from
C&A. All are supposedly made to the same specifications. However, the
manufacturer has for several years tested the microprocessors, and
observed that 2% of the items supplied by L&T, 1% of the items supplied by
H&M and 3% of the items supplied by C&A were defective. The
manufacturer has stopped the testing because of the costs involved, and it
may be reasonably assumed that the fractions that are defective and the
inventory mix are the same as during the period of record keeping. The
director of manufacturing randomly selected a microprocessor, take it to
the test department, and finds that it is defective, what is the probability
that it was supplied by H&M? (Ans. 0.64)
Q.13 The coordinator of Bachelor in Statistics (B.Stat.) has two
secretaries, Mary and Jane. The probability that Mary will be absent on day
is 0.08. the probability that Jane will be absent on any given day is 0.06. The
probability that both secretaries will be absent on any given day is 0.02. Find
the probability that either one of them will be absent on any given day.
(Ans. 0.12)
Q.14 In a bolt factory, machine A, B and C manufacture 25, 35 and 40 percent of
the total output respectively. Of their outputs 5, 4 and 2 percent respectively are
defective bolts. A bolt is chosen at random and found to be defective. What is the
probability that the bolts came from machine (i) A, (ii) B and (iii) C? (Ans. (i)
0.362319 (ii) 0.405797 (iii) 0.231884
Q.15 Three screws are drawn at random from a lot of 100 screws, 10 of
which are defective. Find the probability of the event that all 3 screws are
non-defective, assuming that we draw, (a) with replacement (b) without
replacement. (Ans. (a) 0.729 (b) 0.726531
Q.16 The probability that a doctor will diagnose a disease X correctly is
70%. The probability that a patient will die by his treatment after correct
diagnosis is 30% and probability of death by faulty diagnosis is 80%. What is
the probability that a patient of this doctor, who has disease X, will die?
(Ans. 0.45)
Q.17 A company produces machine components which pass through an
automatic testing machine. 5% of the components entering the testing
machine are defective. However, the machine is not entirely reliable. If a
component is defective there is 4% probability that it will not be rejected. If
a component is not defective there is 7% probability that it will be rejected.
a) What fraction of all the components are rejected?
b) What fraction of the components rejected are actually not defective?
(Ans. (a) 0.1145 (b) 0.5869)
Q.18 Of the three men, the chances that a politician, a businessman or an
academic will be appointed as a Director of School are 0.60, 0.25 and 0.15,
respectively. Probability that research is promoted by these persons if they
are appointed as the Director are 0.28, 0.66 and 0.13, respectively.
a) Determine the probability that research is promoted.
b) If research is promoted, what is the probability that the director is
an academic?
Ans. a) 0.3525 (b) 0.055319
#### Engineers in charge of maintaining out nuclear fleet continually check
for corrosion inside the pipes that are part of cooling system. The inside
condition of the popes cannot be observed directly but a non-destructive
test can give an indication of possible corrosion. The test is not infallible.
The test has probability of 0.7 of detecting corrosion when it is present but
it also has probability of 0.2 of falsely indicating internal corrosion. Suppose
the probability that any section of pipe has internal corrosion is 0.1.

(a) Determine the probability that a section of pipe has internal

corrosion, given that the test indicates its presence.
(b) Determine the probability that a section of pipe has internal
corrosion, given that the test is negative.