POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 28th JANUARY 2019, 6 AM PST

Nanaimo
By-Election Voting Intentions
28th January 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between January 23rd to
24th, 2019 of 768 adults, aged 18 and over, living
in the provincial electoral district of Nanaimo.
The survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.54% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically
available sources.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority
NDP government in Alberta, and was the only
polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet
also accurately predicted the Miami & New York
City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and
the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet
Research is a member of the World Association for
Public Opinion Research and meets international
and Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BC LIBERALS LEADING IN NANAIMO BY-ELECTION

28 January 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The BC Liberals lead in the Nanaimo by-election, the result of which could
lead to an election in British Columbia.

“No matter what angle we look at it, the BC Liberals are ahead of the BC NDP in Nanaimo with the vote to be
held on Wednesday,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “No matter if we ask for
party names or candidate names, the BC Liberals are leading.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the BC Liberals have 44.7% support while the NDP have 32.2%. The
Greens have 13.7% while the BC Conservatives have 7%.

When asking respondents which candidate they would vote for, Tony Harris of the Liberals has 43.5% while
the NDP’s Sheila Malcolmson has 35%. Michele Ney of the Green Party has 12.2%, while Justin Greenwood of
the BC Conservatives has 2.5%.

753 voters in Nanaimo were surveyed between January 23rd and 24th. The margin of error on this survey is
+/- 3.54% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

If the Liberals win this election, the balance of power in the British Columbia will shift and favour the Liberals,
and an early election could be called.

But Maggi notes that this is a high stakes by-election where the motivation of both the Liberals and the NDP
is very high, and turnout will be important.

“Turnout is usually a function of voter motivation and party organization and that should be reflected in the
final vote,” concluded Maggi. “The BC NDP are literally fighting for the government’s life in Nanaimo so it
would not be a surprise if the final numbers will be tighter than our findings.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial by-election were held today, which candidate
would you vote for? (party names)
All Voters
Nanaimo
7.8%
2%

6.4%
30.6%

11.1%

All Voters

42.2%
Decided and Leaning Voters

BC NDP, John Horgan BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson BC Greens, Andrew Weaver

Decided and Leaning Voters
2.4%
7%Scott Anderson
BC Conservatives, Another Party Undecided

2.4%
7%
13.7% 32.2%

13.7% 32.2%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

44.7%
44.7%

BC NDP, John Horgan BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson BC Greens, Andrew Weaver

BC Conservatives, Scott Anderson Another Party

BC NDP, John Horgan BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson BC Greens, Andrew Weaver
If a provincial by-election were held today, which candidate
would you vote for? (candidates’ names)
All Voters
Nanaimo
5.9%

6.1%

2.5%

33.9%

10.8%

All Voters

40.8%
Decided and Leaning Voters

Sheila Malcolmsom, BC NDP Tony Harris, BC Liberals Michele Nay, BC Greens

Decided and Leaning6.7%
Voters
Justin Greenwood, BC Conservatives Another Candidate Undecided
2.5%

2.4%
7%
12.2%
35%

13.7% 32.2%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

44.7%
43.5%

BC NDP, John Horgan BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson BC Greens, Andrew Weaver

BC Conservatives, Scott Anderson Another Party

Sheila Malcolmsom, BC NDP Tony Harris, BC Liberals Michele Nay, BC Greens
Breakout Tables
If the provincial by-election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
BC NDP, John Horgan 30.6% 27.2% 33.7% 18.2% 31.7% 36% 34.3%
BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson 42.2% 47.8% 36.9% 36.2% 39.1% 45.2% 47.2%
BC Greens, Andrew Weaver 11.1% 11.2% 10.9% 27.4% 9.7% 5.4% 4.1%
BC Conservatives, Scott Anderson 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 18.2% 2.4% 3.6% 2.7%
Another Party 2% 3.3% 0.9% - 2.5% 2.7% 2.7%
Undecided 7.8% 4.1% 11.2% - 14.5% 7.2% 9%
Unweighted Frequency 768 372 396 22 82 222 442
Weighted Frequency 768 371 397 172 186 229 181

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
BC NDP, John Horgan 31.7% 27.4% 35.7% 18.2% 34.1% 36% 35.6%
BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson 44% 48.2% 40.1% 36.2% 44% 46.1% 49%
BC Greens, Andrew Weaver 13.6% 12% 15.1% 27.4% 14.5% 8.9% 5.4%
BC Conservatives, Scott Anderson 7% 7.6% 6.4% 18.2% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7%
Another Party 2.3% 3.3% 1.4% - 2.5% 3.6% 2.7%
Undecided 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% - - 1.8% 3.6%
Unweighted Frequency 768 372 396 22 82 222 442
Weighted Frequency 768 371 397 172 186 229 181

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
BC NDP, John Horgan 32.2% 27.8% 36.3% 18.2% 34.1% 36.6% 37.9%
BC Liberals, Andrew Wilkinson 44.7% 49.1% 40.6% 36.2% 44% 46.9% 50.9%
BC Greens, Andrew Weaver 13.7% 12.1% 15.2% 27.4% 14.5% 9.1% 5.6%
BC Conservatives, Scott Anderson 7% 7.7% 6.4% 18.2% 4.9% 3.7% 2.8%
Another Party 2.4% 3.3% 1.5% - 2.5% 3.7% 2.8%
Unweighted Frequency 748 362 386 22 82 218 426
Weighted Frequency 748 362 386 168 181 223 176
If the provincial by-election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Sheila Malcolmsom, BC NDP 33.9% 27.5% 39.9% 27.2% 34.1% 37.8% 35.1%
Tony Harris, BC Liberals 40.8% 46.2% 35.7% 27.2% 39.1% 45.2% 49.9%
Michele Nay, BC Greens 10.8% 9.6% 12% 18.2% 14.6% 7.2% 4.5%
Justin Greenwood, BC Conservatives 2.5% 3% 1.9% - 4.9% 1.8% 3.2%
Another Candidate 6.1% 6.7% 5.5% 18.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7%
Undecided 5.9% 7% 4.9% 9.2% 4.8% 5.4% 4.5%
Unweighted Frequency 768 372 396 22 82 222 442
Weighted Frequency 768 371 397 172 186 229 181

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Sheila Malcolmsom, BC NDP 34.3% 27.5% 40.6% 27.2% 34.1% 38.7% 35.6%
Tony Harris, BC Liberals 42.3% 47% 37.8% 27.2% 41.5% 47.9% 50.4%
Michele Nay, BC Greens 11.8% 9.8% 13.7% 18.2% 17% 8.1% 5%
Justin Greenwood, BC Conservatives 2.5% 3% 1.9% - 4.9% 1.8% 3.2%
Another Candidate 6.2% 7% 5.5% 18.2% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2%
Undecided 3% 5.7% 0.4% 9.2% - 0.9% 2.7%
Unweighted Frequency 768 372 396 22 82 222 442
Weighted Frequency 768 371 397 172 186 229 181

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Sheila Malcolmsom, BC NDP 35% 29.1% 40.6% 29.8% 34.1% 38.8% 36.1%
Tony Harris, BC Liberals 43.5% 49.5% 37.9% 29.8% 41.6% 48.6% 52.1%
Michele Nay, BC Greens 12.2% 10.6% 13.7% 20.2% 16.9% 8% 5.2%
Justin Greenwood, BC Conservatives 2.5% 3.2% 1.9% - 4.9% 1.9% 3.2%
Another Candidate 6.7% 7.7% 5.8% 20.2% 2.6% 2.7% 3.3%
Unweighted Frequency 752 360 392 20 82 220 430
Weighted Frequency 752 364 388 169 182 224 177
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 23rd to 24th,
2019 of 768 adults, aged 18 and over, living in the provincial electoral district of Nanaimo. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in
Nanaimo.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercial available sources. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.
Respondents were also given the opportunity to take the survey in English, Cantonese, or Mandarin.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender.

The sample sizes was 768 and the margin of error is +/- 3.54% at the 95% confidence level. Margins
of error are higher in each subsamples.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.