Year Volume

1970 6,787,650
1971 7,361,783
1972 7,954,748
1973 8,474,727
1974 8,664,751
1975 9,151,427
1976 9,769,354
1977 10,137,021
1978 11,178,111
1979 11,696,073
1980 11,941,524
1981 11,820,788
1982 11,633,728
1983 12,348,270
1984 12,843,433
1985 14,194,189
1986 15,196,284
1987 16,216,102
1988 17,199,808
1989 18,129,684
1990 20,954,420
1991 21,315,116
1992 21,886,865
1993 23,522,593
1994 28,214,362
1995 29,002,122
1996 29,636,361
1997 30,464,635
1998 30,605,128
1999 33,809,134
2000 35,849,691
2001 35,017,317
2002 35,071,504
2003 35,540,126
2004 37,388,781
2005 38,566,717
2006 38,914,889
2007 39,196,761
2008 37,481,552
2009 36,351,469
2010 37,335,436
2011 38,928,708
r
 Volume
45,000,000
Notice population data for the year is increasing!

40,000,000

35,000,000

30,000,000

25,000,000
Volume

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 9 6 98 0 0 02 04 06 08 10
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20
Date Visitors t D1 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 F e
Jan-02 2,671,527 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regression coef 2890717 -219,190
Feb-02 2,762,435 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Constant 2800029 2803920 -41,485
Mar-02 3,262,328 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0t 1945.801 3212915 49,413
Apr-02 2,977,418 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 D1 88742.2 3099162 -121,744
May-02 3,060,042 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 D3 407048.9 3168588 -108,546
Jun-02 2,952,639 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 D4 291350.3 3024105 -71,466
Jul-02 2,988,523 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 D5 358830.2 3165326 -176,803
Aug-02 3,182,116 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 D6 212402 3123610 58,506
Sep-02 2,750,354 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 D7 351676.4 2993588 -243,234
Oct-02 3,014,582 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 D8 308015.2 3155843 -141,261
Nov-02 2,814,321 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D9 176047.1 2821432 -7,111
Dec-02 2,635,220 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D10 336356.3 2823378 -188,158
Jan-03 2,913,249 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2914066 -817
Feb-03 2,769,615 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2827270 -57,655
Mar-03 3,020,218 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3236265 -216,047
Apr-03 2,933,665 16 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3122512 -188,847
May-03 3,048,745 17 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3191937 -143,192
Jun-03 2,943,330 18 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3047455 -104,125
Jul-03 3,122,593 19 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3188675 -66,082
Aug-03 3,207,142 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3146960 60,182
Sep-03 2,847,879 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3016938 -169,059
Oct-03 3,109,334 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3179193 -69,859
Nov-03 2,851,516 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2844782 6,734
Dec-03 2,772,840 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2846728 -73,888
Jan-04 3,054,397 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2937416 116,981
Feb-04 2,914,259 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2850619 63,640
Mar-04 3,292,803 27 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3259614 33,189
Apr-04 3,242,858 28 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3145861 96,997
May-04 3,258,384 29 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3215287 43,097
Jun-04 3,007,446 30 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3070805 -63,359
Jul-04 3,204,588 31 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3212025 -7,437
Aug-04 3,170,961 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3170310 651
Sep-04 3,125,293 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3040287 85,006
Oct-04 3,333,322 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3202542 130,780
Nov-04 2,928,133 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2868132 60,001
Dec-04 2,856,337 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2870077 -13,740
Jan-05 3,048,045 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2960765 87,280
Feb-05 2,950,007 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2873969 76,038
Mar-05 3,396,600 39 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3282964 113,636
Apr-05 3,290,313 40 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3169211 121,102
May-05 3,370,380 41 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3238637 131,743
Jun-05 3,222,784 42 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3094154 128,630
Jul-05 3,388,437 43 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3235374 153,063
Aug-05 3,252,148 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3193659 58,489
Sep-05 3,173,326 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3063637 109,689
Oct-05 3,303,177 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3225892 77,285
Nov-05 3,097,701 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2891481 206,220
Dec-05 3,073,799 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2893427 180,372
Jan-06 3,175,528 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2984115 191,413
Feb-06 2,977,418 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2897319 80,099
Mar-06 3,408,421 51 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3306313 102,108
Apr-06 3,301,734 52 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3192561 109,173
May-06 3,341,156 53 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3261986 79,170
Jun-06 3,157,228 54 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3117504 39,724
Jul-06 3,369,877 55 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3258724 111,153
Aug-06 3,341,005 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3217009 123,996
Sep-06 3,278,884 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3086986 191,898
Oct-06 3,384,978 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3249241 135,737
Nov-06 3,124,369 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2914831 209,538
Dec-06 3,054,291 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2916777 137,514
Jan-07 3,156,419 61 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3007465 148,954
Feb-07 3,015,850 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2920668 95,182
Mar-07 3,456,738 63 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3329663 127,075
Apr-07 3,314,448 64 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3215910 98,538
May-07 3,380,791 65 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3285336 95,455
Jun-07 3,282,315 66 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3140854 141,461
Jul-07 3,378,193 67 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3282074 96,119
Aug-07 3,353,997 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3240358 113,639
Sep-07 3,268,125 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3110336 157,789
Oct-07 3,384,546 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3272591 111,955
Nov-07 3,129,508 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2938181 191,327
Dec-07 3,075,831 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2940126 135,705
Jan-08 3,138,312 73 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3030814 107,498
Feb-08 3,107,997 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2944018 163,979
Mar-08 3,423,765 75 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3353013 70,752
Apr-08 3,265,251 76 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3239260 25,991
May-08 3,395,991 77 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3308686 87,305
Jun-08 3,179,472 78 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3164203 15,269
Jul-08 3,222,456 79 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3305423 -82,967
Aug-08 3,211,209 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3263708 -52,499
Sep-08 2,936,499 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3133686 -197,187
Oct-08 3,039,272 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3295941 -256,669
Nov-08 2,821,629 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2961530 -139,901
Dec-08 2,739,699 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2963476 -223,777
Jan-09 2,765,916 85 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3054164 -288,248
Feb-09 2,858,545 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2967368 -108,823
Mar-09 3,202,344 87 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3376362 -174,018
Apr-09 3,171,043 88 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3262610 -91,567
May-09 3,199,719 89 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3332035 -132,316
Jun-09 2,980,122 90 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3187553 -207,431
Jul-09 3,181,139 91 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3328773 -147,634
Aug-09 3,092,403 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3287058 -194,655
Sep-09 3,062,340 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3157035 -94,695
Oct-09 3,153,159 94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3319290 -166,131
Nov-09 2,904,091 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2984880 -80,789
Dec-09 2,780,648 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2986826 -206,178
Jan-10 2,877,716 97 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3077514 -199,798
Feb-10 2,856,456 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2990717 -134,261
Mar-10 3,224,697 99 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3399712 -175,015
Apr-10 3,199,541 100 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3285959 -86,418
May-10 3,262,831 101 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3355385 -92,554
Jun-10 3,106,965 102 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3210902 -103,937
Jul-10 3,330,658 103 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3352123 -21,465
Aug-10 3,201,662 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3310407 -108,745
Sep-10 3,123,549 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3180385 -56,836
Oct-10 3,332,628 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3342640 -10,012
Nov-10 2,933,897 107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3008229 -74,332
Dec-10 2,884,836 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3010175 -125,339
Jan-11 3,126,364 109 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3100863 25,501
Feb-11 2,884,587 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3014067 -129,480
Mar-11 3,406,385 111 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3423061 -16,676
Apr-11 3,354,283 112 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3309309 44,974
May-11 3,369,262 113 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3378734 -9,472
Jun-11 3,324,290 114 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3234252 90,038
Jul-11 3,472,861 115 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3375472 97,389
Aug-11 3,290,473 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3333757 -43,284
Sep-11 3,294,117 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3203734 90,383
Oct-11 3,422,074 118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3365990 56,084
Nov-11 3,026,521 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3031579 -5,058
Dec-11 2,957,491 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3033525 -76,034
Jan-12 3,154,639 121 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3124213 30,426
Feb-12 3,069,954 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3037416 32,538
Mar-12 3,531,994 123 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3446411 85,583
Apr-12 3,324,459 124 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3332658 -8,199
May-12 3,451,394 125 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3402084 49,310
Jun-12 3,392,798 126 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3257602 135,196
Jul-12 3,443,486 127 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3398822 44,664
Aug-12 3,340,826 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3357106 -16,280
Sep-12 3,353,330 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3227084 126,246
Oct-12 3,521,430 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3389339 132,091
Nov-12 3,102,052 131 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3054929 47,123
Dec-12 132 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3056874
Jan-13 133 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3147562
Feb-13 134 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3060766
Mar-13 135 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3469761
Apr-13 136 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3356008
May-13 137 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3425434
Jun-13 138 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3280951
Jul-13 139 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3422171
Aug-13 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3380456
Sep-13 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3250434
Oct-13 142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3412689
Nov-13 143 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3078278
Dec-13 144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3080224
 e^2 APE Num Den
48,044,098,295 0.082047 0.000241 0.001158 ME 0
1,721,025,465 0.015018 0.00032 0.032747 RMSE 121258
2,441,653,191 0.015147 0.001393 0.007627 MAPE 3.37%
14,821,646,698 0.040889 0.001329 0.00077 Thiel's U 0.5979
11,782,195,440 0.035472 0.000545 0.001232
5,107,454,649 0.024204 0.003586 0.000148 excluding first two years
31,259,173,520 0.059161 0.000383 0.004196
3,422,919,695 0.018386 0.005843 0.01841 ME 20876
59,162,736,314 0.088437 0.002638 0.00923 RMSE 119540
19,954,671,156 0.046859 5.56E-06 0.004413 MAPE 3.30%
50,572,821 0.002527 0.00447 0.00405 Thiel's U 0.6247
35,403,530,234 0.071401 9.62E-08 0.011131
667,910 0.000281 0.000392 0.002431
3,324,083,042 0.020817 0.006085 0.008187
46,676,103,213 0.071533 0.00391 0.000821
35,663,114,977 0.064372 0.002382 0.001539
20,504,074,671 0.046968 0.001166 0.001196
10,842,031,381 0.035377 0.000504 0.003709
4,366,864,753 0.021163 0.000371 0.000733
3,621,885,902 0.018765 0.002779 0.012548
28,580,786,634 0.059363 0.000602 0.008429
4,880,226,944 0.022467 4.69E-06 0.006875
45,345,753 0.002362 0.000671 0.000761
5,459,418,209 0.026647 0.00178 0.010311
13,684,583,624 0.038299 0.000434 0.002105
4,049,988,654 0.021837 0.00013 0.016872
1,101,499,920 0.010079 0.000868 0.00023
9,408,336,458 0.029911 0.000177 2.29E-05
1,857,346,518 0.013226 0.000378 0.005931
4,014,323,992 0.021067 6.11E-06 0.004297
55,307,109 0.002321 4.13E-08 0.00011
424,438 0.000205 0.000719 0.000207
7,225,994,933 0.027199 0.001751 0.004431
17,103,346,002 0.039234 0.000324 0.014776
3,600,156,971 0.020491 2.2E-05 0.000601
188,801,158 0.004811 0.000934 0.004505
7,617,712,451 0.028635 0.000622 0.001035
5,781,762,801 0.025775 0.001484 0.022918
12,913,193,882 0.033456 0.001271 0.000979
14,665,685,242 0.036806 0.001603 0.000592
17,356,303,895 0.039089 0.001457 0.001918
16,545,597,006 0.039913 0.002256 0.002642
23,428,131,241 0.045172 0.000298 0.001618
3,420,948,062 0.017985 0.001138 0.000587
12,031,728,253 0.034566 0.000593 0.001674
5,972,993,481 0.023397 0.003898 0.00387
42,526,560,803 0.066572 0.00339 5.95E-05
32,534,018,404 0.05868 0.003878 0.001095
36,638,894,526 0.060278 0.000636 0.003892
6,415,895,660 0.026902 0.001176 0.020955
10,425,965,541 0.029957 0.001026 0.00098
11,918,819,198 0.033065 0.000575 0.000143
6,267,842,722 0.023695 0.000141 0.00303
1,578,001,896 0.012582 0.001239 0.004536
12,354,964,995 0.032984 0.001354 7.34E-05
15,375,070,960 0.037113 0.003299 0.000346
36,824,695,583 0.058525 0.001714 0.001047
18,424,404,637 0.0401 0.003832 0.005927
43,906,204,111 0.067066 0.001937 0.000503
18,910,174,928 0.045023 0.002378 0.001118
22,187,375,364 0.047191 0.000909 0.001983
9,059,550,079 0.03156 0.001775 0.021372
16,148,055,625 0.036762 0.000813 0.001694
9,709,683,696 0.02973 0.000829 0.000401
9,111,674,380 0.028235 0.001751 0.000848
20,011,343,122 0.043098 0.000858 0.000853
9,238,914,590 0.028453 0.001132 5.13E-05
12,913,739,675 0.033882 0.002213 0.000656
24,897,368,521 0.048281 0.001174 0.001269
12,533,901,670 0.033078 0.003196 0.005678
36,606,195,316 0.061137 0.00188 0.000294
18,415,753,192 0.04412 0.001221 0.000413
11,555,745,890 0.034253 0.00273 9.33E-05
26,889,129,287 0.05276 0.000518 0.010322
5,005,899,637 0.020665 5.76E-05 0.002144
675,537,790 0.00796 0.000715 0.001603
7,622,245,696 0.025708 2.02E-05 0.004065
233,137,386 0.004802 0.000681 0.000183
6,883,580,290 0.025747 0.000265 1.22E-05
2,756,143,015 0.016349 0.003771 0.007318
38,882,562,101 0.06715 0.00764 0.001225
65,878,825,850 0.084451 0.002119 0.005128
19,572,335,051 0.049582 0.00629 0.000843
50,076,129,247 0.081679 0.011069 9.16E-05
83,086,887,696 0.104214 0.001548 0.001122
11,842,350,889 0.038069 0.003706 0.014465
30,282,346,077 0.054341 0.000818 9.55E-05
8,384,425,319 0.028876 0.001741 8.18E-05
17,507,561,960 0.041352 0.004203 0.00471
43,027,528,638 0.069605 0.002454 0.00455
21,795,786,786 0.046409 0.003744 0.000778
37,890,412,731 0.062946 0.000938 9.45E-05
8,967,187,512 0.030923 0.002943 0.00088
27,599,617,415 0.052687 0.000656 0.006239
6,526,826,840 0.027819 0.00504 0.001807
42,509,194,752 0.074147 0.005163 0.001219
39,919,072,822 0.069429 0.002177 5.46E-05
18,026,065,403 0.047003 0.003754 0.016619
30,630,198,542 0.054273 0.000718 6.09E-05
7,468,092,341 0.02701 0.000837 0.000391
8,566,198,756 0.028366 0.001015 0.002282
10,802,982,662 0.033453 4.77E-05 0.005184
460,728,178 0.006445 0.001066 0.0015
11,825,521,999 0.033965 0.000315 0.000595
3,230,314,112 0.018196 1.03E-05 0.00448
100,239,008 0.003004 0.000497 0.014315
5,525,305,187 0.025336 0.001825 0.00028
15,709,914,573 0.043448 7.81E-05 0.00701
650,290,950 0.008157 0.001715 0.005981
16,765,018,862 0.044887 3.34E-05 0.032722
278,104,645 0.004896 0.000174 0.000234
2,022,683,836 0.013408 7.97E-06 1.99E-05
89,725,962 0.002811 0.000714 0.000178
8,106,838,698 0.027085 0.000858 0.001997
9,484,578,936 0.028043 0.000155 0.002758
1,873,490,237 0.013154 0.000754 1.23E-06
8,169,001,766 0.027438 0.00029 0.001509
3,145,464,331 0.016389 2.18E-06 0.013361
25,583,506 0.001671 0.000631 0.00052
5,781,141,103 0.025709 0.000106 0.004444
925,752,763 0.009645 0.000106 0.000721
1,058,694,214 0.010599 0.000777 0.022651
7,324,434,955 0.024231 5.39E-06 0.003453
67,229,504 0.002466 0.00022 0.001458
2,431,476,461 0.014287 0.001534 0.000288
18,278,057,731 0.039848 0.000173 0.000223
1,994,889,465 0.012971 2.24E-05 0.000889
265,053,081 0.004873 0.001428 1.4E-05
15,938,030,487 0.037648 0.001552 0.002513
17,447,985,216 0.037511 0.000179 0.014183
2,220,611,857 0.015191
 Multiple Adjusted StErr of
R-Square
Summary R R-Square Estimate
0.8051 0.6483 0.6189 126693.7

Degrees of Sum of Mean of

F-Ratio p-Value
ANOVA Table Freedom Squares Squares
Explained 10 3.55E+12 3.55E+11 22.1156 < 0.0001
Unexplained 120 1.93E+12 1.61E+10

Standard Confidence Interval 95%

Coefficient t-Value p-Value
Regression Tab Error Lower Upper
Constant 2800029 29669.6 94.3737 < 0.0001 2741285 2858772
t 1945.801 293.3171 6.6338 < 0.0001 1365.054 2526.549
D1 88742.2 44308.79 2.0028 0.0475 1013.881 176470.5
D3 407048.9 44291.92 9.1901 < 0.0001 319354 494743.8
D4 291350.3 44286.39 6.5788 < 0.0001 203666.4 379034.3
D5 358830.2 44282.81 8.1031 < 0.0001 271153.3 446507.1
D6 212402 44281.17 4.7967 < 0.0001 124728.4 300075.6
D7 351676.4 44281.47 7.9418 < 0.0001 264002.2 439350.6
D8 308015.2 44283.72 6.9555 < 0.0001 220336.5 395693.9
D9 176047.1 44287.91 3.9751 0.0001 88360.08 263734
D10 336356.3 44294.04 7.5937 < 0.0001 248657.2 424055.5
 Visitors
3,700,000
But, the monthly data is variable and might
be seasonal with trend

3,500,000

3,300,000

3,100,000

2,900,000

2,700,000

2,500,000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 4 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Date Visitors L b S Forecast e e^2 APE Num
Jan-02 2,671,527 -251098
Feb-02 2,762,435 -160190
Mar-02 3,262,328 339703
Apr-02 2,977,418 54793
May-02 3,060,042 137417
Jun-02 2,952,639 30014
Jul-02 2,988,523 65898
Aug-02 3,182,116 259491
Sep-02 2,750,354 -172271
Oct-02 3,014,582 91957
Nov-02 2,814,321 -108304
Dec-02 2,635,220 2922625 3254.31 -287405
Jan-03 2,913,249 2876250 3254.31 -117531
Feb-03 2,769,615 2828680 3254.31 -113307
Mar-03 3,020,218 2931293 3254.31 223437
Apr-03 2,933,665 2944692 3254.31 24277
May-03 3,048,745 2992774 3254.31 99657
Jun-03 2,943,330 2991760 3254.31 -6354
Jul-03 3,122,593 3031423 3254.31 77614
Aug-03 3,207,142 3115964 3254.31 181457
Sep-03 2,847,879 3035738 3254.31 -179498
Oct-03 3,109,334 3069534 3254.31 67776
Nov-03 2,851,516 3010768 3254.31 -131925
Dec-03 2,772,840 2914551 3254.31 -219858
Jan-04 3,054,397 2921392 3254.31 -1377 2800275 254122.22 6.458E+10 0.0831988 0.0011354
Feb-04 2,914,259 2901369 3254.31 -54799 2811340 102919 1.059E+10 0.0353157 0.0031956
Mar-04 3,292,803 3019719 3254.31 246454 3128061 164742.22 2.714E+10 0.050031 0.0035289
Apr-04 3,242,858 3068921 3254.31 93663 3047251 195606.92 3.826E+10 0.0603193 0.0007124
May-04 3,258,384 3125970 3254.31 114844 3171832 86552.308 7.491E+09 0.026563 0.0012548
Jun-04 3,007,446 3105112 3254.31 -48688 3122870 -115424 1.332E+10 0.0383794 3.828E-05
Jul-04 3,204,588 3141079 3254.31 71075 3185981 18607.229346228953 0.0058064 0.0023343
Aug-04 3,170,961 3183492 3254.31 91520 3325791 -154830 2.397E+10 0.0488275 0.0013858
Sep-04 3,125,293 3141403 3254.31 -103748 3007248 118045.33 1.393E+10 0.037771 0.0014962
Oct-04 3,333,322 3192915 3254.31 101449 3212433 120889.1 1.461E+10 0.0362669 0.0016674
Nov-04 2,928,133 3120903 3254.31 -160134 3064245 -136112 1.853E+10 0.0464841 0.0002683
Dec-04 2,856,337 3032385 3254.31 -199547 2904299 -47962.41 2.3E+09 0.0167916 2.328E-05
Jan-05 3,048,045 3037715 3254.31 4051 3034262 13782.865189967360 0.0045219 0.0001408
Feb-05 2,950,007 3013539 3254.31 -58848 2986170 -36162.53 1.308E+09 0.0122585 0.0020434
Mar-05 3,396,600 3134645 3254.31 253641 3263248 133352.37 1.778E+10 0.0392605 0.0002992
Apr-05 3,290,313 3184207 3254.31 99432 3231562 58750.888 3.452E+09 0.0178557 0.0004281
May-05 3,370,380 3243495 3254.31 120426 3302305 68075.427 4.634E+09 0.0201981 5.381E-05
Jun-05 3,222,784 3233077 3254.31 -30887 3198061 24723.232611238196 0.0076714 0.0006322
Jul-05 3,388,437 3278330 3254.31 89171 3307406 81030.984 6.566E+09 0.023914 0.0012743
Aug-05 3,252,148 3293268 3254.31 30026 3373105 -120957 1.463E+10 0.0371929 3.576E-05
Sep-05 3,173,326 3253815 3254.31 -92965 3192774 -19447.81378217290 0.0061285 0.0003041
Oct-05 3,303,177 3284837 3254.31 62918 3358518 -55341.21 3.063E+09 0.0167539 8.39E-05
Nov-05 3,097,701 3222128 3254.31 -143580 3127957 -30256.07915429601 0.0097673 0.0002397
Dec-05 3,073,799 3159306 3254.31 -146676 3025836 47963.12 2.3E+09 0.0156039 8.416E-06
Jan-06 3,175,528 3165763 3254.31 6700 3166611 8916.9489 79511978 0.002808 0.0017476
Feb-06 2,977,418 3121887 3254.31 -98544 3110169 -132751 1.762E+10 0.044586 9.909E-05
Mar-06 3,408,421 3226181 3254.31 220538 3378782 29638.712878453257 0.0086957 6.337E-05
Apr-06 3,301,734 3261752 3254.31 71870 3328867 -27133736197250 0.0082178 0.0001798
May-06 3,341,156 3301998 3254.31 82748 3385432 -44276.5 1.96E+09 0.0132519 0.0012291
Jun-06 3,157,228 3271585 3254.31 -69586 3274365 -117137 1.372E+10 0.0371013 3.453E-06
Jul-06 3,369,877 3309504 3254.31 75820 3364010 5867.2564 34424697 0.0017411 2.787E-07
Aug-06 3,341,005 3323724 3254.31 24117 3342784 -1778.896 3164470 0.0005324 0.0001804
Sep-06 3,278,884 3300433 3254.31 -59855 3234014 44870.211 2.013E+09 0.0136846 3.14E-05
Oct-06 3,384,978 3330825 3254.31 58854 3366606 18372.214337538242 0.0054276 0.0003817
Nov-06 3,124,369 3267596 3254.31 -143416 3190500 -66130.86 4.373E+09 0.0211662 0.0005003
Dec-06 3,054,291 3202496 3254.31 -147385 3124175 -69884.13 4.884E+09 0.0228806 0.0003365
Jan-07 3,156,419 3197728 3254.31 -15558 3212450 -56031.4 3.14E+09 0.0177516 0.0007525
Feb-07 3,015,850 3147599 3254.31 -113939 3102438 -86588.28 7.498E+09 0.0287111 0.0008009
Mar-07 3,456,738 3249917 3254.31 214178 3371391 85346.591 7.284E+09 0.0246899 9.391E-06
Apr-07 3,314,448 3278227 3254.31 55342 3325041 -10593.2112215958 0.0031961 2.497E-05
May-07 3,380,791 3315742 3254.31 74543 3364230 16560.966274265610 0.0048985 9.473E-05
Jun-07 3,282,315 3298999 3254.31 -45059 3249411 32904.383 1.083E+09 0.0100247 1.347E-09
Jul-07 3,378,193 3330811 3254.31 62635 3378073 120.48672 14517.049 3.567E-05 1.535E-06
Aug-07 3,353,997 3342355 3254.31 18333 3358183 -4185.753 17520525 0.001248 2.763E-05
Sep-07 3,268,125 3319764 3254.31 -56046 3285754 -17629.17310787745 0.0053943 6.69E-07
Oct-07 3,384,546 3345672 3254.31 49591 3381873 2673.174 7145859 0.0007898 0.0005043
Nov-07 3,129,508 3280647 3254.31 -146997 3205510 -76002.28 5.776E+09 0.0242857 0.000376
Dec-07 3,075,831 3217011 3254.31 -144508 3136517 -60686 3.683E+09 0.0197299 0.000466
Jan-08 3,138,312 3201915 3254.31 -37833 3204707 -66395.42 4.408E+09 0.0211564 2.854E-05
Feb-08 3,107,997 3165442 3254.31 -87747 3091231 16765.883281094844 0.0053944 0.0001731
Mar-08 3,423,765 3257001 3254.31 192196 3382875 40890.164 1.672E+09 0.011943 0.0002162
Apr-08 3,265,251 3271610 3254.31 26736 3315597 -50346.07 2.535E+09 0.0154187 0.0002035
May-08 3,395,991 3311686 3254.31 79069 3349407 46584.42 2.17E+09 0.0137175 0.0007087
Jun-08 3,179,472 3280968 3254.31 -71224 3269881 -90408.89 8.174E+09 0.0284352 0.0015309
Jul-08 3,222,456 3284386 3254.31 4884 3346857 -124401 1.548E+10 0.0386045 0.0008648
Aug-08 3,211,209 3276707 3254.31 -20533 3305973 -94764.35 8.98E+09 0.0295105 0.008011
Sep-08 2,936,499 3204781 3254.31 -154443 3223915 -287416 8.261E+10 0.0978772 0.0055292
Oct-08 3,039,272 3185609 3254.31 -41245 3257626 -218354 4.768E+10 0.0718441 0.005251
Nov-08 2,821,629 3092094 3254.31 -204239 3041866 -220237 4.85E+10 0.0780532 0.0055994
Dec-08 2,739,699 3001227 3254.31 -198761 2950840 -211141 4.458E+10 0.0770672 0.0053682
Jan-09 2,765,916 2952468 3254.31 -106782 2966648 -200732 4.029E+10 0.0725736 1.162E-05
Feb-09 2,858,545 2920923 3254.31 -75985 2867975 -9430.141 88927556 0.0032989 0.0009045
Mar-09 3,202,344 3012691 3254.31 191017 3116373 85970.9 7.391E+09 0.0268462 0.0016067
Apr-09 3,171,043 3050164 3254.31 70383 3042682 128361.14 1.648E+10 0.0404792 0.0004495
May-09 3,199,719 3095829 3254.31 90577 3132487 67232.27 4.52E+09 0.0210119 0.0002226
Jun-09 2,980,122 3063293 3254.31 -76763 3027859 -47736.62 2.279E+09 0.0160183 0.0013552
Jul-09 3,181,139 3089031 3254.31 45323 3071432 109707.1 1.204E+10 0.0344867 4.214E-05
Aug-09 3,092,403 3088443 3254.31 -9178 3071753 20650.413426439549 0.0066778 0.0016361
Sep-09 3,062,340 3057110 3254.31 -80415 2937255 125085.17 1.565E+10 0.0408463 0.0019159
Oct-09 3,153,159 3070065 3254.31 16401 3019119 134040.45 1.797E+10 0.0425099 0.0001233
Nov-09 2,904,091 3003039 3254.31 -155424 2869080 35011.138 1.226E+09 0.0120558 8.57E-05
Dec-09 2,780,648 2926427 3254.31 -174197 2807532 -26884.23722762018 0.0096683 0.0003886
Jan-10 2,877,716 2899808 3254.31 -67518 2822899 54816.592 3E+09 0.0190486 0.0001042
Feb-10 2,856,456 2879993 3254.31 -51669 2827077 29378.983863124650 0.0102851 0.0027735
Mar-10 3,224,697 2983448 3254.31 214306 3074264 150433.06 2.263E+10 0.0466503 0.0019516
Apr-10 3,199,541 3040000 3254.31 111719 3057086 142455.49 2.029E+10 0.0445237 0.0016256
May-10 3,262,831 3101620 3254.31 123324 3133831 129000.14 1.664E+10 0.0395363 0.0005841
Jun-10 3,106,965 3090822 3254.31 -33690 3028111 78854.111 6.218E+09 0.0253798 0.0037894
Jul-10 3,330,658 3147126 3254.31 109400 3139399 191258.57 3.658E+10 0.0574237 0.0003295
Aug-10 3,201,662 3158304 3254.31 15179 3141203 60459.24 3.655E+09 0.0188837 0.0001754
Sep-10 3,123,549 3139273 3254.31 -50423 3081143 42406.128 1.798E+09 0.0135763 0.0030925
Oct-10 3,332,628 3181387 3254.31 78916 3158928 173700 3.017E+10 0.052121 0.0008181
Nov-10 2,933,897 3108207 3254.31 -164180 3029217 -95320.47 9.086E+09 0.0324894 0.0003193
Dec-10 2,884,836 3036034 3254.31 -163534 2937264 -52428.25 2.749E+09 0.0181737 0.0028717
Jan-11 3,126,364 3042968 3254.31 2449 2971770 154594 2.39E+10 0.0494485 0.0012372
Feb-11 2,884,587 3006082 3254.31 -84042 2994554 -109967 1.209E+10 0.0381222 0.0040134
Mar-11 3,406,385 3124383 3254.31 245691 3223642 182742.65 3.339E+10 0.0536471 0.0011383
Apr-11 3,354,283 3191312 3254.31 135480 3239356 114927 1.321E+10 0.0342627 0.0002346
May-11 3,369,262 3250648 3254.31 121140 3317890 51371.583 2.639E+09 0.0152471 0.0009542
Jun-11 3,324,290 3260809 3254.31 11361 3220213 104077.23 1.083E+10 0.0313081 0.0008941
Jul-11 3,472,861 3323942 3254.31 127722 3373462 99398.502 9.88E+09 0.0286215 0.0002234
Aug-11 3,290,473 3323142 3254.31 -7004 3342376 -51902.77 2.694E+09 0.0157737 3.04E-05
Sep-11 3,294,117 3310833 3254.31 -34796 3275974 18143.105329172274 0.0055077 7.788E-05
Oct-11 3,422,074 3349260 3254.31 76087 3393003 29070.54845096321 0.008495 0.0022359
Nov-11 3,026,521 3260272 3254.31 -196434 3188334 -161813 2.618E+10 0.0534649 0.0022169
Dec-11 2,957,491 3175161 3254.31 -188633 3099992 -142501 2.031E+10 0.048183 7.863E-05
Jan-12 3,154,639 3174402 3254.31 -7849 3180864 -26225.1687755898 0.0083132 5.625E-05
Feb-12 3,069,954 3141573 3254.31 -78283 3093614 -23660.18559803924 0.007707 0.0021237
Mar-12 3,531,994 3263920 3254.31 256068 3390519 141475.48 2E+10 0.0400554 0.0004902
Apr-12 3,324,459 3303450 3254.31 82409 3402655 -78196.19 6.115E+09 0.0235215 5.018E-05
May-12 3,451,394 3356729 3254.31 108866 3427844 23549.571554582289 0.0068232 3.864E-05
Jun-12 3,392,798 3368296 3254.31 17453 3371344 21454.1460278405 0.0063234 0.0002704
Jul-12 3,443,486 3409123 3254.31 84439 3499272 -55786.09 3.112E+09 0.0162005 0.0003514
Aug-12 3,340,826 3397594 3254.31 -30076 3405373 -64546.53 4.166E+09 0.0193205 1.45E-05
Sep-12 3,353,330 3385358 3254.31 -33513 3366053 -12722.69161866879 0.003794 0.0002862
Oct-12 3,521,430 3427925 3254.31 84162 3464700 56730.305 3.218E+09 0.01611 0.0014199
Nov-12 3,102,052 3332277 3254.31 -212101 3234745 -132693 1.761E+10 0.0427758
Dec-12 1 3146899
Jan-13 2 3330937
Feb-13 3 3263758
Mar-13 4 3601363
Apr-13 5 3430958
May-13 6 3460669
Jun-13 7 3372511
Jul-13 8 3442751
Aug-13 9 3331490
Sep-13 10 3331308
Oct-13 11 3452237
Nov-13 12 3159229
Dec-13 13 3185951
Den
alpha 0.1882
beta 0.0000
gamma 0.4636

excluding first two years

ME 4222
RMSE 102288
MAPE 2.60%
Thiel's U 0.5212

0.002105
0.0168724
0.0002301
2.292E-05
0.005931
0.004297
0.0001101
0.0002074
0.0044306
0.0147761
0.0006012
0.0045047
0.0010345
0.0229181
0.0009792
0.0005922
0.0019177
0.002642
0.0016178
0.0005874
0.0016744
0.0038695
5.954E-05
0.0010953
0.0038921
0.0209547
0.0009798
0.0001426
0.0030304
0.0045364
7.34E-05
0.0003457
0.001047
0.0059274
0.0005031
0.0011181
0.0019833
0.0213716
0.0016944
0.0004007
0.0008484
0.0008533
5.13E-05
0.0006555
0.001269
0.0056782
0.0002942
0.0004126
9.331E-05
0.0103223
0.0021435
0.0016032
0.004065
0.0001828
1.218E-05
0.0073183
0.0012249
0.005128
0.0008431
9.157E-05
0.0011215
0.014465
9.554E-05
8.178E-05
0.0047101
0.0045499
0.0007781
9.451E-05
0.0008795
0.0062394
0.0018068
0.0012186
5.458E-05
0.0166192
6.086E-05
0.0003913
0.002282
0.0051836
0.0015
0.0005952
0.0044805
0.0143148
0.0002796
0.0070096
0.0059807
0.0327218
0.0002339
1.994E-05
0.0001782
0.0019974
0.0027581
1.226E-06
0.0015089
0.0133607
0.0005202
0.0044436
0.0007206
0.0226514
0.0034526
0.0014579
0.0002882
0.0002232
0.0008888
1.401E-05
0.0025129
0.0141832
3,700,000

3,500,000

3,300,000

3,100,000

2,900,000

2,700,000

2,500,000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 4 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Date Visitors L b S Forecast e e^2 APE
Jan-02 2,671,527 0.9141
Feb-02 2,762,435 0.9452
Mar-02 3,262,328 1.1162
Apr-02 2,977,418 1.0187
May-02 3,060,042 1.0470
Jun-02 2,952,639 1.0103
Jul-02 2,988,523 1.0225
Aug-02 3,182,116 1.0888
Sep-02 2,750,354 0.9411
Oct-02 3,014,582 1.0315
Nov-02 2,814,321 0.9629
Dec-02 2,635,220 2922625 3254.31 0.9017
Jan-03 2,913,249 3074609 3254.31 0.9475
Feb-03 2,769,615 2993791 3254.31 0.9251
Mar-03 3,020,218 2831158 3254.31 1.0668
Apr-03 2,933,665 2860188 3254.31 1.0257
May-03 3,048,745 2890999 3254.31 1.0546
Jun-03 2,943,330 2905162 3254.31 1.0131
Jul-03 3,122,593 2991169 3254.31 1.0439
Aug-03 3,207,142 2966627 3254.31 1.0811
Sep-03 2,847,879 3001985 3254.31 0.9487
Oct-03 3,109,334 3010505 3254.31 1.0328
Nov-03 2,851,516 2983860 3254.31 0.9556
Dec-03 2,772,840 3037305 3254.31 0.9129
Jan-04 3,054,397 3144775 3254.31 0.9713 2880986 173411.3 3.01E+10 0.056774
Feb-04 2,914,259 3149233 3254.31 0.9254 2912304 1955.169 3822686 0.000671
Mar-04 3,292,803 3115014 3254.31 1.0571 3363005 -70202.24 4.93E+09 0.02132
Apr-04 3,242,858 3142964 3254.31 1.0318 3198375 44482.82 1.98E+09 0.013717
May-04 3,258,384 3114087 3254.31 1.0463 3317890 -59505.72 3.54E+09 0.018262
Jun-04 3,007,446 3032555 3254.31 0.9917 3158296 -150850 2.28E+10 0.050159
Jul-04 3,204,588 3055115 3254.31 1.0489 3169196 35392.46 1.25E+09 0.011044
Aug-04 3,170,961 2987071 3254.31 1.0616 3306322 -135361 1.83E+10 0.042688
Sep-04 3,125,293 3163482 3254.31 0.9879 2836817 288475.5 8.32E+10 0.092304
Oct-04 3,333,322 3201266 3254.31 1.0413 3270694 62628.05 3.92E+09 0.018788
Nov-04 2,928,133 3124521 3254.31 0.9371 3062389 -134256 1.8E+10 0.04585
Dec-04 2,856,337 3128339 3254.31 0.9131 2855434 903.2566 815872.5 0.000316
Jan-05 3,048,045 3135375 3254.31 0.9721 3041594 6450.574 41609907 0.002116
Feb-05 2,950,007 3166665 3254.31 0.9316 2904447 45559.86 2.08E+09 0.015444
Mar-05 3,396,600 3194568 3254.31 1.0632 3350842 45757.76 2.09E+09 0.013472
Apr-05 3,290,313 3192774 3254.31 1.0305 3299461 -9147.685 83680147 0.00278
May-05 3,370,380 3210318 3254.31 1.0499 3344123 26257.08 6.89E+08 0.007791
Jun-05 3,222,784 3234140 3254.31 0.9965 3186964 35819.75 1.28E+09 0.011115
Jul-05 3,388,437 3233405 3254.31 1.0479 3395785 -7347.981 53992823 0.002169
Aug-05 3,252,148 3138084 3254.31 1.0363 3435915 -183767 3.38E+10 0.056506
Sep-05 3,173,326 3181634 3254.31 0.9974 3103417 69909.28 4.89E+09 0.02203
Oct-05 3,303,177 3177729 3254.31 1.0395 3316269 -13092 1.71E+08 0.003963
Nov-05 3,097,701 3251866 3254.31 0.9526 2981046 116655.4 1.36E+10 0.037659
Dec-05 3,073,799 3318549 3254.31 0.9262 2972095 101704.3 1.03E+10 0.033087
Jan-06 3,175,528 3290318 3254.31 0.9651 3229281 -53752.65 2.89E+09 0.016927
Feb-06 2,977,418 3238062 3254.31 0.9195 3068232 -90813.6 8.25E+09 0.030501
Mar-06 3,408,421 3221027 3254.31 1.0582 3446304 -37883.09 1.44E+09 0.011115
Apr-06 3,301,734 3212651 3254.31 1.0277 3322783 -21048.89 4.43E+08 0.006375
May-06 3,341,156 3196873 3254.31 1.0451 3376246 -35089.64 1.23E+09 0.010502
Jun-06 3,157,228 3182034 3254.31 0.9922 3188891 -31662.77 1E+09 0.010029
Jul-06 3,369,877 3202602 3254.31 1.0522 3338013 31864.13 1.02E+09 0.009456
Aug-06 3,341,005 3216088 3254.31 1.0388 3322384 18621.18 3.47E+08 0.005574
Sep-06 3,278,884 3258136 3254.31 1.0064 3210936 67947.68 4.62E+09 0.020723
Oct-06 3,384,978 3258562 3254.31 1.0388 3390141 -5163.374 26660430 0.001525
Nov-06 3,124,369 3272092 3254.31 0.9549 3107179 17189.72 2.95E+08 0.005502
Dec-06 3,054,291 3287954 3254.31 0.9289 3033782 20509.15 4.21E+08 0.006715
Jan-07 3,156,419 3279427 3254.31 0.9625 3176388 -19968.65 3.99E+08 0.006326
Feb-07 3,015,850 3281074 3254.31 0.9192 3018446 -2595.712 6737721 0.000861
Mar-07 3,456,738 3274283 3254.31 1.0557 3475404 -18666.41 3.48E+08 0.0054
Apr-07 3,314,448 3247633 3254.31 1.0206 3368420 -53971.66 2.91E+09 0.016284
May-07 3,380,791 3241725 3254.31 1.0429 3397608 -16817.43 2.83E+08 0.004974
Jun-07 3,282,315 3280924 3254.31 1.0004 3219682 62632.53 3.92E+09 0.019082
Jul-07 3,378,193 3242227 3254.31 1.0419 3455714 -77521 6.01E+09 0.022947
Aug-07 3,353,997 3235865 3254.31 1.0365 3371539 -17542.11 3.08E+08 0.00523
Sep-07 3,268,125 3243860 3254.31 1.0075 3259747 8378.407 70197698 0.002564
Oct-07 3,384,546 3253396 3254.31 1.0403 3373087 11459.07 1.31E+08 0.003386
Nov-07 3,129,508 3268508 3254.31 0.9575 3109625 19882.95 3.95E+08 0.006353
Dec-07 3,075,831 3294187 3254.31 0.9337 3039249 36581.51 1.34E+09 0.011893
Jan-08 3,138,312 3276470 3254.31 0.9578 3173757 -35445.44 1.26E+09 0.011294
Feb-08 3,107,997 3337579 3254.31 0.9312 3014610 93386.84 8.72E+09 0.030047
Mar-08 3,423,765 3285152 3254.31 1.0422 3526997 -103232 1.07E+10 0.030152
Apr-08 3,265,251 3237739 3254.31 1.0085 3356060 -90809.33 8.25E+09 0.027811
May-08 3,395,991 3249709 3254.31 1.0450 3380028 15962.68 2.55E+08 0.0047
Jun-08 3,179,472 3210348 3254.31 0.9904 3254342 -74870.23 5.61E+09 0.023548
Jul-08 3,222,456 3144789 3254.31 1.0247 3348368 -125912 1.59E+10 0.039073
Aug-08 3,211,209 3119607 3254.31 1.0294 3262969 -51759.83 2.68E+09 0.016118
Sep-08 2,936,499 3004325 3254.31 0.9774 3146221 -209722 4.4E+10 0.071419
Oct-08 3,039,272 2958563 3254.31 1.0273 3128820 -89547.82 8.02E+09 0.029464
Nov-08 2,821,629 2953354 3254.31 0.9554 2835860 -14231.5 2.03E+08 0.005044
Dec-08 2,739,699 2943844 3254.31 0.9307 2760629 -20930 4.38E+08 0.00764
Jan-09 2,765,916 2913264 3254.31 0.9494 2822828 -56912.26 3.24E+09 0.020576
Feb-09 2,858,545 3003746 3254.31 0.9517 2715899 142645.8 2.03E+10 0.049902
Mar-09 3,202,344 3044409 3254.31 1.0519 3133876 68467.62 4.69E+09 0.02138
Apr-09 3,171,043 3102706 3254.31 1.0220 3073561 97482.3 9.5E+09 0.030741
May-09 3,199,719 3080866 3254.31 1.0386 3245772 -46052.54 2.12E+09 0.014393
Jun-09 2,980,122 3041379 3254.31 0.9799 3054459 -74336.59 5.53E+09 0.024944
Jul-09 3,181,139 3078705 3254.31 1.0333 3119827 61311.89 3.76E+09 0.019274
Aug-09 3,092,403 3037675 3254.31 1.0180 3172456 -80052.73 6.41E+09 0.025887
Sep-09 3,062,340 3093399 3254.31 0.9900 2972277 90063.03 8.11E+09 0.02941
Oct-09 3,153,159 3081149 3254.31 1.0234 3181129 -27969.94 7.82E+08 0.00887
Nov-09 2,904,091 3058928 3254.31 0.9494 2946834 -42742.57 1.83E+09 0.014718
Dec-09 2,780,648 3019851 3254.31 0.9208 2849831 -69183.24 4.79E+09 0.02488
Jan-10 2,877,716 3027612 3254.31 0.9505 2870203 7513.363 56450617 0.002611
Feb-10 2,856,456 3014173 3254.31 0.9477 2884355 -27898.74 7.78E+08 0.009767
Mar-10 3,224,697 3044893 3254.31 1.0591 3173962 50735 2.57E+09 0.015733
Apr-10 3,199,541 3095093 3254.31 1.0337 3115282 84258.61 7.1E+09 0.026335
May-10 3,262,831 3122996 3254.31 1.0448 3217875 44956.28 2.02E+09 0.013778
Jun-10 3,106,965 3151635 3254.31 0.9858 3063284 43681.26 1.91E+09 0.014059
Jul-10 3,330,658 3193907 3254.31 1.0428 3259858 70799.82 5.01E+09 0.021257
Aug-10 3,201,662 3167459 3254.31 1.0108 3254763 -53101.12 2.82E+09 0.016585
Sep-10 3,123,549 3161896 3254.31 0.9879 3138878 -15329.23 2.35E+08 0.004908
Oct-10 3,332,628 3217179 3254.31 1.0359 3239123 93504.71 8.74E+09 0.028057
Nov-10 2,933,897 3146344 3254.31 0.9325 3057421 -123524 1.53E+10 0.042102
Dec-10 2,884,836 3140148 3254.31 0.9187 2900118 -15281.61 2.34E+08 0.005297
Jan-11 3,126,364 3226431 3254.31 0.9690 2987773 138590.6 1.92E+10 0.04433
Feb-11 2,884,587 3123868 3254.31 0.9234 3060692 -176105 3.1E+10 0.06105
Mar-11 3,406,385 3177989 3254.31 1.0719 3311783 94602.39 8.95E+09 0.027772
Apr-11 3,354,283 3217425 3254.31 1.0425 3288598 65684.51 4.31E+09 0.019582
May-11 3,369,262 3223063 3254.31 1.0454 3364888 4373.612 19128479 0.001298
Jun-11 3,324,290 3309323 3254.31 1.0045 3180589 143701.2 2.07E+10 0.043228
Jul-11 3,472,861 3322653 3254.31 1.0452 3454409 18452.37 3.4E+08 0.005313
Aug-11 3,290,473 3285713 3254.31 1.0014 3361821 -71348.2 5.09E+09 0.021683
Sep-11 3,294,117 3314928 3254.31 0.9937 3249079 45037.52 2.03E+09 0.013672
Oct-11 3,422,074 3309837 3254.31 1.0339 3437256 -15182 2.3E+08 0.004436
Nov-11 3,026,521 3274702 3254.31 0.9242 3089385 -62864.18 3.95E+09 0.020771
Dec-11 2,957,491 3244517 3254.31 0.9115 3011440 -53948.89 2.91E+09 0.018241
Jan-12 3,154,639 3252236 3254.31 0.9700 3147042 7596.823 57711717 0.002408
Feb-12 3,069,954 3294850 3254.31 0.9317 3006127 63827.02 4.07E+09 0.020791
Mar-12 3,531,994 3296437 3254.31 1.0715 3535133 -3139.446 9856119 0.000889
Apr-12 3,324,459 3236556 3254.31 1.0272 3440048 -115589 1.34E+10 0.034769
May-12 3,451,394 3275014 3254.31 1.0539 3386769 64625.28 4.18E+09 0.018724
Jun-12 3,392,798 3334787 3254.31 1.0174 3293095 99703.38 9.94E+09 0.029387
Jul-12 3,443,486 3313275 3254.31 1.0393 3488945 -45458.77 2.07E+09 0.013201
Aug-12 3,340,826 3327613 3254.31 1.0040 3321334 19492.28 3.8E+08 0.005835
Sep-12 3,353,330 3355722 3254.31 0.9993 3309956 43374.27 1.88E+09 0.012935
Oct-12 3,521,430 3385716 3254.31 1.0401 3472880 48550.3 2.36E+09 0.013787
Nov-12 3,102,052 3370439 3254.31 0.9204 3132129 -30077.08 9.05E+08 0.009696
Dec-12 1 3075239
Jan-13 2 3275608
Feb-13 3 3149479
Mar-13 4 3625231
Apr-13 5 3478691
May-13 6 3572536
Jun-13 7 3452247
Jul-13 8 3529954
Aug-13 9 3413227
Sep-13 10 3400556
Oct-13 11 3542773
Nov-13 12 3137994
Dec-13 13 3110836
Num Den
alpha 0.5694 shifts the level
beta 0.0000 constant trend
gamma 1.0000 unstable seasonality

excluding first two years

ME -895
RMSE 78353
MAPE 1.91%
Thiel's U 0.3922

4.097E-07 0.002105
0.00058 0.016872
0.000182 0.00023
0.000337 2.292E-05
0.002143 0.005931
0.000138 0.004297
0.001784 0.00011
0.008276 0.000207
0.000402 0.004431
0.001622 0.014776
9.516E-08 0.000601
5.1E-06 0.004505
0.000223 0.001035
0.000241 0.022918
7.253E-06 0.000979
6.368E-05 0.000592
0.000113 0.001918
5.198E-06 0.002642
0.002941 0.001618
0.000462 0.000587
1.702E-05 0.001674
0.001247 0.00387
 0.001078 5.954E-05
0.000306 0.001095
0.000818 0.003892
0.000162 0.020955
3.814E-05 0.00098
0.000113 0.000143
8.981E-05 0.00303
0.000102 0.004536
3.053E-05 7.34E-05
0.000414 0.000346
2.48E-06 0.001047
2.579E-05 0.005927
4.309E-05 0.000503
4.274E-05 0.001118
6.763E-07 0.001983
3.831E-05 0.021372
0.000244 0.001694
2.575E-05 0.000401
0.000343 0.000848
0.000558 0.000853
2.696E-05 5.13E-05
6.24E-06 0.000656
1.229E-05 0.001269
3.451E-05 0.005678
0.000137 0.000294
0.000133 0.000413
0.000885 9.331E-05
0.001103 0.010322
0.000703 0.002144
2.39E-05 0.001603
0.000486 0.004065
0.001568 0.000183
0.000258 1.218E-05
0.004265 0.007318
0.00093 0.001225
2.193E-05 0.005128
5.502E-05 0.000843
0.000432 9.157E-05
0.00266 0.001122
0.000574 0.014465
0.000927 9.554E-05
0.000211 8.178E-05
0.00054 0.00471
0.000423 0.00455
0.000633 0.000778
0.000848 9.451E-05
8.342E-05 0.00088
 0.000184 0.006239
0.000568 0.001807
7.301E-06 0.001219
9.399E-05 5.458E-05
0.000315 0.016619
0.000683 6.086E-05
0.000197 0.000391
0.000179 0.002282
0.000519 0.005184
0.000254 0.0015
2.292E-05 0.000595
0.000896 0.00448
0.001374 0.014315
2.713E-05 0.00028
0.002308 0.00701
0.003173 0.005981
0.001076 0.032722
0.000372 0.000234
1.7E-06 1.994E-05
0.001819 0.000178
3.081E-05 0.001997
0.000422 0.002758
0.000187 1.226E-06
2.124E-05 0.001509
0.000337 0.013361
0.000318 0.00052
6.598E-06 0.004444
0.000409 0.000721
1.046E-06 0.022651
0.001071 0.003453
0.000378 0.001458
0.000835 0.000288
0.00018 0.000223
3.204E-05 0.000889
0.000169 1.401E-05
0.00021 0.002513
7.295E-05 0.014183
3,700,000

3,500,000

3,300,000

3,100,000

2,900,000

2,700,000

2,500,000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 4 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
 3 diferent methods chosen
Regression HW Additive HW Multiplicative
ME 20876 4222 -895
RMSE 119540 102288 78353
MAPE 3.30% 2.60% 1.91%

Rank 3 2 1

Population
Forecast Dec-12 3056874 3146899 3075239
Jan-13 3147562 3330937 3275608
Feb-13 3060766 3263758 3149479
Mar-13 3469761 3601363 3625231
Apr-13 3356008 3430958 3478691
May-13 3425434 3460669 3572536
Jun-13 3280951 3372511 3452247
Jul-13 3422171 3442751 3529954
Aug-13 3380456 3331490 3413227
Sep-13 3250434 3331308 3400556
Oct-13 3412689 3452237 3542773
Nov-13 3078278 3159229 3137994
Dec-13 3080224 3185951 3110836
Total Populat 39364734 40363161 40689134
Mean Error, but not MAD
MSE
MAPE