CRIMINAL
Dirigida por:
Dr. Jesús Herranz Bellido. Psicólogo del Cuerpo Superior de Instituciones Penitenciarias.
Ministerio del Interior
Dra. María del Mar Pastor Bravo. Médico Forense. Sección Psiquiatría. Instituto de
Medicina Legal de Alicante
LAS TRAYECTORIAS DE LA VIOLENCIA Y LA CONDUCTA CRIMINAL
UNIVERSIDAD DE ALICANTE
Julio 2017
Dra. Rosario Ferrer Cascales, Catedrática de Escuela Universitaria de la Universidad
de Alicante.
Dra. Mª del Mar Pastor Bravo, Profesora Asociada del Departamento de Psicología
de la Salud de la Universidad de Alicante.
CERTIFICAN:
Que el trabajo de Tesis doctoral presentado por Dña Miriam Sánchez San
Segundo, titulado “LAS TRAYECTORIAS DE LA VIOLENCIA Y LA CONDUCTA
CRIMINAL”, ha sido realizado por la doctoranda bajo la dirección de los directores de la
tesis y que dicho trabajo reune a nuestro juicio criterios suficientes para que pueda
optar al grado de Doctor con Mención Internacional por la Universidad de Alicante.
Director/es de la Tesis
Dra. Rosario Ferrer Dr. Jesús Herranz Dra. Mª del Mar Pastor
Cascales Bellido Bravo
Parte de los resultados recogidos en esta Tesis Doctoral han dado lugar a las
siguientes aportaciones científicas. A modo informativo sólo se recogen las más
significativas.
Artículos:
Capítulos de Libro:
RESUMEN.................................................................................................................. 17
Resumen ................................................................................................................... 19
SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 25
Resumen
Los estudios empíricos que conforman este trabajo se han centrado en dos
En España sin embargo, existen muy pocos trabajos publicados que analicen los
criminal que presentan los individuos que cometen los crímenes más graves y
doctoral realiza un recorrido por los factores que motivan el inicio de la delincuencia
estudio empírico. Los principales resultados de cada uno de los estudios aparecen
recogidos en los capítulos 3-8. En la última sección (capítulo 9), se discuten los
los vínculos sociales y otras conductas problemáticas juveniles. En este estudio 567
educativa (pública vs privada), nuestros resultados mostraron que los predictores más
edad. Los resultados de este estudio mostraron una relación significativa entre el
restricción del consumo de alimentos con alto contenido calórico para compensar el
rápidamente los efectos de intoxicación etílica con el patrón de Binge Drinking. En este
Resumen Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
calorías tuvieron 2.5 (95% CI 1.46-4.27) veces más probabilidades de ser Binge
drinkers.
otros Trastornos Psicóticos (Hodgins, Cree, Alderton, y Mak, 2008). En nuestro cuarto
años de edad estuvo fuertemente relacionada con un patrón de conducta criminal así
infantil y habían sido condenados a lo largo de la vida por un mayor número de delitos
violentos y no violentos.
Resumen Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
estudio 107 pacientes con Esquizofrenia y otras Psicosis fueron monitorizados durante
discriminar a los delincuentes de alto riesgo con niveles de precision moderados, con
veces superior de conducta suicida (OR = 5.15, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80) y 7 veces más
probabilidades de manifestar actos de violencia (OR= 7.04, 95% CI= 2.1-23.3). Estos
empírico y destacamos las limitaciones y perspectivas de futuro que abren nuevas vías
The present PhD. Dissertation is part of the research line entitled “Pathways of
Violence and Criminal Behavior”. This work is composed by 9 chapters which are
empirical studies in review, d) general discussion, limitations and future directions, and
d) conclusions.
The empirical studies of the current work have focused on two groups of interest:
adolescents who start drinking alcohol and the adult population of offenders with
Schizophrenia and other Psychoses Disorders. To date, most of the studies about the
development of violence and criminal behavior come from studies reported in North
America, Canada and some regions of Europe. In Spain, however, little research has
been conducted about the determinants of juvenile delinquency and the trajectories of
criminal behavior in those individuals with severe mental disorders who commit the
most serious and violent crimes and are subsequently sentenced to compulsory
the factors that motivate the onset of juvenile and adult delinquency, with special
emphasis on the role of early alcohol consumption and the presence of serious mental
population. For this, 6 empirical studies have been conducted across this work. The
main results of each of the studies are presented in chapters 3-8. The last section
(Chapter 9) discusses the most significant findings obtained in each of the studies,
In the first study we examined the connections between adolescent alcohol use
behaviors, friends’ alcohol consumption. Information about alcohol use and a number
Summary Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
of school and social variables was collected from adolescent students (N=567) who
After controlling for age and type of school (public vs. private), school´s getting
expelled, participating in a fight, going out at night, the hour at which one returns, and
the number of friends who have consumed alcohol were positively associated with
The second study examined associations between adolescent alcohol use and
family relationship quality, parental rules, sources of information about substances, and
with drinking behaviors and a mother with permissive attitudes towards alcohol use.
restriction in order to compensate for alcohol calories, achiving more quickly the effects
online questionnaire on eating habits and alcohol intake. Results suggests that the
correlated with binge drinking behaviors (r = 0.75). Participants who reduced caloric
food intake, had 2.5 (95% CI 1.46-4.27) times more likely to be binge drinkers.
The last three articles are focused on offenders with Schizophrenia and other
Previous studies have suggested that Conduct Disorder (CD) prior to age 15 is
strongly associated with an increased risk of aggressive behavior and crime among
men with schizophrenia and related disorders (Hodgins, Cree, Alderton, y Mak, 2008).
The fourth study analyzed the subtypes of severely mentally ill (SMI) in a forensic
prior to age 15. Using the HCR-20 and PCL:SV risk measures, we found that the
and high scores in the HCR-20 and PCL:SV. More violent offenders with both
previous studies, more of them had experienced physical abuse in childhood and
hyperactivity and more frequently had been previously convicted for violent and non-
violence offences.
In the fifth study, we showed the results of the first longitudinal study conducted in
Spain examining the predictive validity of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV measures in a
sample of mentally disordered offenders. In this study, 107 patiens with Schizophrenia
and other Psychosis were followed-up 24 monts at institution. During the follow-up
period, 29.2% of sample were involved in any aggressive behavior. Both measures
were able to classify at high risk violent offenders with a moderate-large effect size with
AUCs values ranging .81-.85 for the HCR-20 and .78-.80 for the PCL:SV. These results
confirm the clinical utility of these measures in mentally disordered offenders in Spain.
Finally, in study 6 examined the predictive validity of the Spanish version of the
schizophrenia and other psychosis, who had committed violent crimes and had been
within institution across 18 months by staff members who recorded suicide and violent
incidents by using the S-RAMM and HCR-20 risk assessment tools. Over the follow-up
period, 25% of offenders were involved in any suicidal behavior including acts of self-
Summary Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
harm, suicidal ideation and suicide attempts and 34% of sample behaved violently. The
S-RAMM and HCR-20 risk assessment tools were strongly correlated and were able to
predict suicide and violence with a moderate-large effect size (AUCs = .81-.85; AUCs=
.78-.80 respectively). Patients scoring above the mean on the S-RAMM (> 20-point cut-
off) and HCR-20 (>21-point cut-off) had a five times increased risk of suicide (OR =
5.15, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80) and sevenfold risk of reoffending (OR= 7.04, 95% CI= 2.1-
23.3) than those scoring below the mean. These results support the use of the S-
RAMM and HCR-20 for clinical practice by providing strong evidence of the utility of
these measures for predicting risk for suicide and violence in mentally disordered
offenders.
In chapter 9, we discuss the main results obtained in each empirical study and
highlight the limitations and future directions that open new research lines. Finally, the
comportamiento que resultan fundamentales para el tránsito hacia la vida adulta. Las
resultan factores determinantes para hacer frente a los desafíos vitales, promover
Entre los principales factores de riesgo adolescente destacan los relacionados con
accidentes viales, los comportamientos suicidas o los efectos adversos derivados del
se ha tratado de explicar cómo las experiencias vividas durante las primeras etapas
edad (Agnew, 2003; Dijkstra et al., 2015). La curva de la edad del delito conocida
delincuencia autoinformada han demostrado que más del 80% de los adolescentes ha
(20.9%) o llevar consigo un arma blanca (9.3%). Tan sólo un pequeño porcentaje de
golpear gravemente a alguien para conseguir algo (1.6%), herir con un palo o navaja a
especialmente los actos delictivos más graves y violentos (Lösel, 2000; Catena y
desarrollar una carrera criminal más estable y cronificada en la edad adulta (Loeber y
publicadas hasta la fecha que analizan las trayectorias de la violencia desde la infancia
hasta la edad adulta con intervalos de seguimiento entre 20 y 50 años, han constatado
Jennings, 2013; Fergusson, Boden y Horwood, 2015; Kolvin et al., 1990; LeBlanc y
Frechette, 1989; McCord, 1990; McCord y Ensminger, 1997; Moffit, Caspi, Rutter y
Silva, 2001; Murray, 2010; Wadsworth, 1979; Werner y Smith, 2001; Huesman, Eron y
Dubow, 2000; Huesman, Dubow y Boxer, 2009; Raine, Liu, Venables, Mednick y
Dalais, 2010; Pulkkinen, Lyyra y Kokko, 2009). Por ejemplo, Farrington (1995), en uno
de los estudios longitudinales más importantes publicados hasta la fecha encontró que
más del 50% de los jóvenes que habían cometido un delito violento entre los 10 y 16
años de edad, habían sido condenados por un crimen violento a la edad de 24 años,
comparado con sólo el 8% de los jóvenes que no habían manifestado actos violentos
22. Un 20% de los participantes seguidos durante este período fueron arrestados a la
violencia, el único factor que resultó decisivo en la delincuencia adulta fue la relación
parental.
delictiva propuesta por Moffit (1993) ha sido considerada el modelo teórico más
limita a la adolescencia.
sexuales de alto riesgo o ingesta abusiva de alcohol “binge drinking”) dando lugar a
nuevos fenómenos emergentes (Miller, Naimi, Brewer & Jones, 2007). Estos
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
culminan hasta la tercera década de la vida (Johnson, Blum, y Giedd, 2009). En esta
región tiene lugar un incremento de la sustancia gris que alcanza su máximo desarrollo
donde se asientan las principales funciones cognitivas (Delgado, 2007; Gogtay et al.,
2004). Por tanto, las regiones cerebrales que más tardan en desarrollarse, como la
de la infancia (Delgado, 2007; Gogtay et al., 2004). Los cambios producidos a nivel
Los delitos cometidos por la gran mayoría de jóvenes en los primeros años de
grupal bajo la ingesta abusiva de alcohol y otras drogas, lo que constituye un factor
Por ejemplo, los jóvenes criados en ambientes positivos con vínculos parentales
otras conductas de riesgo (Moffit y Caspi, 2001). Por el contrario, los jóvenes criados
normas y bajos niveles de comunicación con sus hijos presentan un pronóstico más
2006; Guo et al., 2011; Llorens et al., 2011). Según los datos del Observatorio Español
sobre Drogas (Ministerio del Interior, 2012) un 41.6% de los adolescentes entre 14 y
haber conducido vehículos a motor estando bajo los efectos de la intoxicación etílica,
requerido asistencia médica por haber sufrido un accidente de tráfico estando bajo los
señalado como una “puerta de entrada” hacia el consumo de otras sustancias ilícitas
como el cannabis o la cocaína (Costello, Dierker, Jones & Rose 2008). Rosenfeld,
(Townshend y Duka, 2005; Scaife y Duka, 2009; Mota et al., 2013) o la toma de
proporcionado por la ingesta de alcohol (Dierks, 2013). Algunos estudios han estimado
y Mills, 2015). Este tipo de prácticas cada vez más extendidas en la cultura
temprano para el abuso/dependencia (Grant et al., 2004; Grant et al., 2006; Jennison,
con una pareja, dando lugar a un desistimiento generalizado de la curva de la edad del
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
delito al alcanzar la primera etapa adulta, entre los 18 y 24 años de edad (Farrington,
torno al 5-7% de la población general, pero son los responsables de la mayoría de los
estudio pionero Estadounidense realizado con una muestra de más de 9,945 jóvenes
explicaron el 70% de todos los delitos violentos cometidos a la edad de 18 años. Este
pequeño subgrupo fue el responsable del 52% de todos los arrestos policiales
sueca de 15,117 individuos seguidos desde la infancia hasta los 30 años de edad. Un
6% de los individuos fueron los responsables del 70% de todos los delitos violetos y no
violentos explicados por la cohorte. Comparados con los delincuentes que desistieron
realizados desde los años 70´ hasta la actualidad, ha examinado en una serie de
estudios sucesivos, las carreras criminales de 411 niños seguidos desde los 8 hasta
de la vida.
- Más del 50% de todas las sentencias condenatorias por un delito violento
general.
desfavorecidos.
Tabla 1. Encuestas longitudinales sobre las trayectorias de la violencia. Adaptado de Jollife, Farrington, Piquero, MacLeod y Van de
Weijer (2015)
Proyecto Autores País Seguimiento Género LCP %
1. Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health Development Moffit et al., (2002) New De 5 a 18 años Varones 9.9%
Study Zealand
2. Kauai Longitudinal Study Werner y Smith (1992) USA De 7 a 32 años Mixta 4.2%
Montreal Two-Samples Longitudinal Study LeBlanc y Frenchette (1989) Canada De 7 a 25 años Varones 1.6%
National Collaborative Perinatal Project Denno (1990) US De 7 a 22 años Mixta 6.2%
4. Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study Wolfgang et al., (1987) US De 10 a 30 años Varones 18.3%
Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study 2 ...Tracy y Kempf (1996) US De 10 a 26 años Mixta 7.5%
Löeber y Stallings (2011), han sintetizado recientemente los hallazgos obtenidos hasta
y Raine, 2014). Kandel y Mednick (1991), hallaron que el 80% de los delincuentes con
electroenfalógrafica (EEG) también han confirmado que alrededor del 50% de los
sujetos que acumulan antecedentes penales por delitos violentos y entre los homicidas
últimos años los datos procedentes de las técnicas de neuroimagen en individuos con
46
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
sobre los hallazgos de las técnicas de imagen cerebral realizadas en las últimas
décadas en delincuentes con una carrera criminal han demostrado que las
(implicados en los procesos cognitivos y juicio moral), muestran una tasa de activación
neuropsicológico demostrando que, comparados con los delincuentes que desisten del
Hall, Bor, Najman, y Williams, 2003). Este conjunto de déficits se ha relacionado con
Existe una sólida evidencia hasta la fecha que demuestra la relación entre el
2000; Snyder y Sickmund, 2006; Tubman, Gil, y Wagner, 2004). Entre los delincuentes
47
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
en el caso de los delitos de homicidio el riesgo es 10.9 veces superior (Fazel, Gulati,
Linsell, Geddes, y Grann, 2009). Estas tasas están sobrerrepresentadas entre los
gran número de arrestos policiales por agresión y violencia. Butler et al., (2006), han
gran número de arrestos policiales cumple criterios diagnósticos para estos trastornos
psicoactivas (Fothergill et al., 2008; Bond et al., 2007; Mathers et al., 2006). Algunos
resultado de una etiología común entre dichas conductas (Jessor, 1991). Por ejemplo,
(Rasmussen et al., 2005). Los jóvenes consumidores de alcohol son más propensos al
rendimiento académico inferior (Horwood et al., 2010; Crum, et al., 1998; Bryant et al.,
2000; Martins y Alexandre, 2009), cuentan con mayores tasas de abandono escolar
(Horwood et al., 2010; Lynskey et al., 2003; Townsend et al., 2007; Henry, 2010),
Beatti, 1999). A largo plazo la principal consecuencia para estos individuos es que el
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
demostrado ser uno de los factores más sólidos de violencia y criminalidad. Entre los
delincuentes persistentes que han tenido un contacto con el sistema de justicia penal,
agresivo en edades tempranas, entre los 6 y 11 años de edad, fue el predictor más
normas y las reglas sociales propias de la edad, que se inicia antes de los 15 años”
adolescencia (APA, 2014). Los criterios clínicos que definen estos trastornos se
49
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
población general (Dória et al., 2015). Sin embargo, su prevalencia es muy superior
más amplio metanálisis publicado hasta la fecha sobre la relación entre delincuencia
Hodgins, Cree, Alderton, y Mak 2008; Hodgins, Larm y Westerman, 2016; Olin, 1997),
entre los delincuentes con una carrera delictiva progresiva. La evidencia más
consistente sobre esta relación ha sido obtenida por Kim-Cohen et al., (2003) en una
cohorte de 1037 individuos nacidos en Nueva Zelanda seguidos desde los 3 hasta los
26 años de edad. Los resultaron de este estudio revelaron que un 37% de los sujetos
50
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
2005; Frick, Bodin, y Barry, 2000). El trastorno de conducta de inicio temprano predice
Tiihonen, y Ross, 2005). Odgers et al., (2008), en una investigación realizada con la
misma cohorte de individuos de Nueva Zelanda seguida hasta los 32 años de edad,
fueron 80 veces superiores entre los individuos con conductas agresivas de inicio
infantil.
de edad (Burke, Loeber, y Lahey, 2007; Loeber, Burke, y Pardini, 2009). Ambos
muy superior a lo esperable por azar. Cerca del 50% de los adultos con TAP exhiben
CD antes de los 10 de edad y un 95% manifiesta este patrón antes de los 12 años
(Swanson., 1994).
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
diagnósticos parece ser más frecuente en niños con padres biológicos que presentan
la prevalencia de trastornos mentales entre aquellos que han tenido un contacto con el
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
diversidad hace que las cifras de criminalidad puedan resultar muy heterogéneas
cuando se comparan las tasas de delincuencia y enfermedad mental halladas entre los
diferentes estudios.
mental entre los delincuentes encarcelados. En Estados Unidos y Canadá, más de 1/3
delito violento a los dos años, y más del 50% lo hace después de 5 años en libertad
(Durose, Cooper y Snyder, 2014). Estas tasas son muy superiores en algunas
europeo con una ratio de 160/100.0000 vs 145/100.000. Sin embargo esta cifra es
los 765 delincuentes encarcelados por cada 100.000 habitantes (Fazel y Seewald,
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
española se sitúa en torno al 54% (Vicents et al., 2011). Sin embargo, no existen cifras
estadísticas sobre la persistencia delictiva de aquellos que cometen los crímenes más
McMillan, Hastings, & Coldwell, 2004; Nicholls, Brink, Desmarais, Webster, & Martin,
2006). El 50% de estos reincidentes comete un nuevo delito dentro de los dos
psiquiátricas forenses durante el primer año tras la excarcelación (Clarke et al., 2013;
instituciones psiquiátricas que han tenido un contacto con el sistema de justicia penal,
persiste en la delincuencia.
población general (Curtin et al., 2009; Gunter et al., 2008; Falissard et al., 2006; Piselli
et al., 2009; Ponde et al., 2011; Trestman et al., 2007; Vicents et al., 2011; Zahari et
incluyendo España, Brasil, Dubai, La India, Iran, Kuwait, Malasya, México, Nigeria,
USA, Canada, Australia, Nueva Zelanda, UK, Gales, Escocia, Dinamarca, Finlandia,
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
algún tipo de trastorno mental y uno de cada dos individuos con un diagnóstico
cifras indican claramente que los delincuentes internados en prisión tienen una alta
En España según los datos oficiales aportados por la Spanish Home Office
Report (2007), la prevalencia de trastornos mentales en prisión es del 45.9% y del 90-
establecimientos de carácter especial son hombres jóvenes, que han cometido actos
remite favorablemente en 2/3 partes de los casos tras la instauración del tratamiento
estudios han demostrado que los delincuentes con Psicosis, que comenzaron sus
lesiones) cometidos por los pacientes con Esquizofrenia y otras Psicosis ingresados
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Criminalidad
Male Female
% %
Study OR 95% IC Weight Study OR 95% IC Weight
Fazel Fazel
3.98 2.89– .31 100.0 7.85 4.00-15.40 20.9
(2009) (2009)
Eriksson Coid
2.47 2.29-2.68 12.9 6.32 5.19 – 7.71 14.5
(2008) (2006)
Hodgins Wallace
5.13 4.05–.50 12.0 7.71 2.83–20.97 13.6
(2007) (2004)
Elonheimo Brenan
1.41 0.18–0.83 1.7 6.51 3.15–3.45 17.1
(2007) (2000)
Coid Lindqvist
2.56 1.01– 6.46 5.5 4.57 1.70–12.30 14.6
(2006) (1990)
Wallace
4.99 3.63–6.85 11.2 Mixed population
(2004)
Brenan Elbogen
4.58 3.81–5.52 12.3 4.22 2.82 – 6.32 16.1
(2000) (2009)
Modestin Soyka
5.22 1.50–8.25 3.8 4.10 3.16–5.33 18.0
(1996) (2007)
Linqvist Monahan
3.35 2.27–.94 10.5 1.82 0.91–3.67 11.9
(1996) (2000)
Swanson Arsenault
6.70 3.75-11.98 8.5 12.50 5.67–27.56 10.7
(1990) (2000)
Ortman Sosovsky
2.01 0.48–8.30 3.1 13.97 6.86–28.46 11.7
(1981) (1980)
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Los resultados de estos estudios han sido recientemente analizados por Fazel,
realizadas desde 1979 hasta 2009 con una muestra total de 18,423 individuos con
control de 1,714,904 individuos. Aunque como muestra la tabla 2 existe una gran
una incidencia del 0.3% frente al 0.02%. Para esta modalidad delictiva, el incremento
que presentan los consumidores de sustancias (Fazel et al., 2009). Sin embargo, y a
futuro. Los actos de violencia y agresión son atribuidos a menos del 5% de la totalidad
de estos individuos en los que confluyen un gran número de factores que ejercen un
Witt, Van Dorn, y Fazel (2013), han evaluado en un reciente metanálisis de 110
para la violencia y la conducta criminal entre los delincuentes con Esquizofrenia y otras
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
reportado en esta población es más frecuente entre los varones jóvenes (OR= 1.6,
95% CI 1.2-2-1), que muestran antecedentes penales previos (OR=6.1, 95% CI 4.0-
(OR= 1.6, 95% CI= 1.4-1.8), abuso de sustancias (OR=3.1, 95% CI 1.9-5.0) o
4.3) y falta de autocontrol (OR= 3.3, 95% CI= 1.5-7.2). Desde el punto de vista clínico
existe clara evidencia que demuestra que los síntomas positivos que caracteriza la
amenaza percibida) predisponen al comportamiento agresivo (OR= 1.2, 95% CI= 1.0-
2.7, 95% CI= 1.4-5.2) e incumplimiento de los tratamientos prescritos (OR= 6.7, 95%
Freeman, 1991). Varios estudios han puesto de manifiesto que cerca del 90% de los
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
de gran interés que conlleva numerosos costes económicos y sociales en todos los
2015). Se estima que en países como Reino Unido, el 19% del presupuesto total
gastos por paciente ascienden a 273,000£ anuales (Fazel, Fiminska, Cocks, y Coid,
2016). A estas cifras habría que añadir los costes derivados de los reingresos
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
se sitúan como la primera causa de muerte externa en nuestro país, por delante de los
accidentes de tráfico (INE, 2015), y a nivel mundial como la tercera causa de muerte
conducta suicida (Dela Guia, 2011). Desde el punto de vista psicológico, la presencia
de algunos Trastornos Mentales Graves, como la Esquizofrenia (Witt et al., 2014), los
estudios han demostrado que el riesgo de suicidio entre los delincuentes violentos con
intentos de suicidio cometidos por estos pacientes suelen ocurrir durante el curso de
inmediatamente después de haber sido dados de alta. También existe un riesgo muy
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
pacientes se caracterizan por ser más letales, más frecuentes y menos imprevisibles
múltiples factores de riesgo. En una revisión de la literatura, Hor y Taylor (2010), han
constatado que ser varón, joven, tener un nivel educativo alto, manifestar síntomas
relación entre suicidio y violencia en pacientes con Esquizofrenia (Fazel, 2009; Suokas
pacientes atendidos por los servicios de Salud Mental el riesgo de suicidio es 2.8
veces superior entre los varones (95%, CI 1.5-5.4) que han llevado a cabo una
tentativa suicida previa y 4.4 veces superior en las mujeres con antecedentes suicidas
que manfiestan estos diagnósticos (95%, CI 1.5-12.7). Sin embargo, los actos y
prisión (Fazel, Cartwright, Norman-Nott, & Hawton, 2008; Lekka et al., 2006; Palmer, &
Gibbons, Nulty, & Kennedy, 2013; Webb et al., 2011). En estos contextos el riesgo de
suicidio aumenta significativamente, debido al efecto que ejercen los factores de riesgo
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Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
positivos (Ishii, et al., 2014). Una alternativa a estos procedimientos la constituye las
sido específicamente diseñado para evaluar el riesgo de conducta suicida entre los
máxima seguridad (The Suicide Risk Assessment and Management; S-RAMM; Fagan,
Ijaz, Papaconstantinou, O´Neill y Kennedy, 2009). The Suicide Risk Assessment and
discriminar a pacientes en alto riesgo con índices de precisión de .79 a .99 para
62
Capítulo 1: Introducción Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
cuando existe un alto nivel de acuerdo entre los asesores y poseen una formación
con suficiente justificación (Dolan y Doyle, 2000; Webster et al., 1997). Por lo tanto,
63
64
CAPÍTULO 2: Objetivos de estudio
65
66
Capítulo 2: Objetivos Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
2.1 Objetivos
Para ello, se han determinado seis objetivos de investigación, cada uno de los cuales
67
Capítulo 2: Objetivos Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Como muestra la figura 1 cada uno de los objetivos anteriores citados constituye un
estudio empírico.
68
Capítulo 2: Objetivos Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Objetivo 5. Evaluar el riesgo de violencia en Estudio 5. Assessing Risk for Violence among
delincuentes con enfermedad mental mediante el Mentally Disordered Offenders: a longitudinal
uso de los instrumentos HCR-20 y PCL:SV. study using the HCR-20 and PCL:SV in Spain.
Objetivo 6. Evaluar el riesgo de suicidio en una Estudio 6. Suicide Risk Assessment in a sample
muestra de delincuentes con Esquizofrenia y of violent offenders with Schizophrenia and
otras Psicosis mediante el S-RAMM. Other Psychosis.
69
70
TRABAJOS PUBLICADOS
71
72
Capítulo 3: Adolescent alcohol use in Spain:
connections with Friends, school, and other
delinquent behaviors.
Este estudio ha sido financiado por Concejalía de Acción Social. Plan Municipal sobre
Drogodependencia. Ayuntamiento de Alicante, Spain. Delegación del Gobierno para el
Plan Nacional sobre Drogas, AYTOALICANTE3-13I.
73
74
Capítulo 3 Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Adolescent alcohol use in Spain: connections with friends, school, and other
delinquent behaviors
Abstract
This study examined the connections between adolescent alcohol use in Alicante,
Spain and variables reflecting adolescents’ academic problems, potentially delinquent
behaviors, friends’ alcohol consumption, and friendship quality. Information about
alcohol use and a number of school and social variables was collected from adolescent
students (N=567) who completed the National Students School-Based Drug Survey in
a classroom setting. Results suggested that gender was not significantly associated
with alcohol use, although alcohol use increased with age and was more likely for
adolescents enrolled in public schools compared to private. After controlling for age
and type of school (public vs. private), academic problems explained 5.1% of the
variance in adolescents’ alcohol use, potentially delinquent behaviors explained 29.0%,
friends’ alcohol use 16.8%, and friendship quality 1.6%. When all unique predictors
from these four models were included in a comprehensive model, they explained
32.3% of the variance in adolescents’ alcohol use. In this final model, getting expelled,
participating in a fight, going out at night, the hour at which one returns, and the
number of friends who have consumed alcohol were uniquely and positively associated
with adolescents’ alcohol use. These results provide important information about multi-
system influences on adolescent alcohol use in Alicante, Spain and suggest potential
areas of focus for intervention research.
75
Capítulo 3 Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
76
Capítulo 4: Adolescent drinking in Spain: Family
relationship quality, rules, communication, and
behaviors.
Este estudio ha sido financiado por Concejalía de Acción Social. Plan Municipal sobre
Drogodependencia. Ayuntamiento de Alicante, Spain. Delegación del Gobierno para el
Plan Nacional sobre Drogas, AYTOALICANTE3-13I.
77
Capítulo 4 Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
78
Capítulo 4 Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Abstract
This study examined associations between adolescent alcohol use in Spain and family
relationship quality, parental rules, sources of information about substances, and family
behaviors. A sample of 565 students in Alicante, Sapin completed measures of these
constructs. After controlling for age and type of school, family relationship quality
explained 3.7% of the variance in adolescents´alcohol use, family rules explained 7.0%
sources of information 2.8% and parental behavior 2.6%. A comprehensive model with
all unique predictors from these four models explained 10.6% of the variance in
adolescents´alcohol use. Within this final model, higher family relationship quality and
parents knowing with whom one goes out at night were uniquely and negatively
associated with adolescents´alcohol use, but mothers permitting alcohol consumption
and fathers´drinking behaviors were positively associated. These findings suggest that
the family unit may be ideal for intervening to reduce alcohol use in adolescents in
Spain.
79
80
Capítulo 5: Drunkorexia y Binge Drinking: nuevos
patrones de conducta alimentaria en Estudiantes
Universitarios.
http://www.renc.es/actualidad1.asp??page=1&anno=&codR=12&buscar=
81
82
Drunkorexia y Binge Drinking: nuevos patrones de conducta alimentaria en
estudiantes universitarios
1
Departamento de Psicología de la Salud. Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud.
Universidad de Alicante (España)
Resumen
83
84
Capítulo 6: Subtypes of severely mentally ill
violent offenders in a Spanish Forensic
Psychiatric Hospital
85
86
Subtypes of Severely Mentally Ill Violent Offenders in a Spanish Forensic
Psychiatric Hospital
Abstract
Conduct disorder (CD) prior to age 15 identifies a subgroup of men with severe mental
illness (SMI) who present a high risk for violence that persists across the life span. The
present study examined male violent offenders with SMI in a forensic hospital in Spain,
comparing those with SMICCD and those without SMI-CD on the HCR-20 and PCL:SV.
Violent offenders with SMICCD obtained higher HCR-20 and PCL: SV total scores, and
much higher H and factor 2 scores as compared to those without prior CD. Men with
SMICCD present a challenge to forensic psychiatric services.
87
88
TRABAJOS NO PUBLICADOS
89
90
Capítulo 7: Assessing Risk for Violence among
Mentally Disordered Offenders: A longitudinal
prospective study using the HCR-20 and PCL:SV
in Spain.
91
92
Assessing Risk for Violence among Mentally Disordered Offenders: A
Miriam Sánchez San Segundo1, Rosario Ferrer-Cascales1, Jesús Herranz Bellido2, Mar
Pastor Bravo3
1. Introduction
In the past decades there has been a significant progress in the field of violence
(Dolan & Blattner, 2010; Douglas, Ogloff, & Hart, 2003). The most common risk
assessment methods used by mental health professionals in criminal justice have been
described as actuarial and structured professional judgment (Vogel & Ruiter, 2006).
Actuarial approaches are based on the static risk factors empirically related to violence
coded according to a number of fixed and explicit rules (de Vogel & de Ruiter, 2006). In
contrast, the Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ), combine a set of both static
and dynamic risk factors that can be used to guide interventions and prioritize goals of
treatment (Kubiak et al., 2014). Although both approaches may be considered similar in
terms of accuracy to predict future aggressive behaviors (Fazel, Singh, Doll, & Grann,
2012; Guy, Douglas, & Hendry, 2010; Sing, Grann, & Fazel, 2011; Yang, Wong, &
Coid, 2010), the SPJ approach have demonstrated its superiority by providing specific
recommendations for managing the risk of violence (Guy, Packer, & Warnken, 2014).
To date, the most widely used SPJ instrument for the assessment of violence
93
Management-20 Version 2 (HCR-20; Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997, for a
complete review see Singh, 2013). The HCR-20 risk assessment tool is designed to
strategies in order to reduce the likelihood of violence (Ho et al., 2013). It contains 10
historical static factors that do not change over time, and 10 dynamic (5 clinical and 5
risk management) factors that are potentially amendable to clinical interventions (Guy,
Packer, & Warnken, 2012). The HCR-20 has been widely used with more than 200
independent studies across countries and translated into different languages (Douglas
internal consistency (Belfrage, Fransson, & Strand, 2000; Daffern, & Howells, 2007; De
Vogel & de Ruiter, 2006; Douglas, Ogloff, & Hart, 2003; Douglas, Ogloff, Nicholls, &
Grant, 1999) and the ability of the HCR-20 to predict future violence and institutional
aggression has been found to be, moderate to large, with areas under the ROC curve
ranging between 0.70 to 0.80 (for a review see Douglas, Blanchard, Guy, Reeves, &
Weir, 2010).
In addition, to more elaborate SPJ tools such as the HCR-20, high scores on
psychopathy based on the Psychopathy Checklist Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 1991) and its
reduced version PCL:SV (Hart, Cox, & Hare, 1995) have been associated with criminal
patients (Hare, Clark, Grann, &, Thornton, 2000; Hemphill, Hare, & Wong, 1998;
aggression has also been reported in several early studies (e.g. Dernevik, Grann, &
Johanson, 2002; Tengström et al., 2006). However these results are mainly from
research conducted in North America (Gray, Taylor, & Snowden, 2008) some
European countries including Germany, Sweden, Netherlands and the United Kingdom
(Doland & Blattner, 2010). In Spain, however there is a lack of research regarding
94
violence risk prediction in mentally disordered offenders. To our knowledge, there is
only one study in Spain that has examined the ability of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV to
Soñes, 2011). Results showed that both measures were predictive of violence within
the first 4 months of the follow-up with areas under the curve (AUCs) ranking from .70
to .75, but only the HCR-20 and most particularly the clinical subscale showed a
significant association with institutional violence. These results support the hypothesis
that compared with the PCL:SV, the HCR-20 is a more stable predictor of violence
(Douglas et al., 1999; Gray et al., 2003; Nichols et al.1999). These findings are not
surprisingly given that the PCL-R (Hare, 2003) and its reduced version (PCL:SV) were
not originally developed as a violence risk assessment tool for mentally disordered
populations (McDermott, Edens, Quanbeck, Busse, & Scott, 2008) but it has been
The HCR-20 and PCL:SV were originally developed for use in forensic setting.
disordered offenders was conducted in Spain. This study aims to) determine the
predictive validity of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV for predicting inpatient aggression
behaviours, and b) to examine if the HCR-20 structured final risk judgment adds
incremental validity to the total score. To address the goals of this study, patients were
incidents records. On the basis of recent studies that demonstrate predictive ability of
diagnoses and clinical status (Grann, Belfrage, & Tengström, 2000; Hodgins & Riaz,
2011; Tengström et al., 2006) we only included those offenders who had a primary
95
diagnosis of major mental disorder and who have been sentenced to compulsory
2. Methods
2.1 Participants
The sample consisted of 107 male patients who had been admitted to a
Spanish forensic psychiatric hospital on the basis of having a mental disorder at the
moment of the crime. Inclusion criteria were: (1) being male; (2) had a primary clinical
psychosis, or bipolar disorder; and (3) had committed at least one violent crime. The
mean age was 44.2 (SD=9.2). The majority of participants had at least one offence
prior to the index offence (n= 42, 39.3%) and had completed only elementary school
(n= 48, 39.3%). The most common diagnosis according to the Diagnostic and
14.0% (n=15), Schizoaffective Disorder 7.5% (n=8), Bipolar Disorder 3.7% (n=4) and
other psychotic disorders 12.1% (n=13). Additionally, 12.1% (n=13) of the sample had
a secondary diagnosis of substance use disorder and 30.8% (n=33) met criteria for a
counselling and work therapy) during the treatment at the institution. Of the 107
patients 83.2% (n=89) had been hospitalized at least once in the Mental Health
Services prior the index offense but only a small proportion were taken medication at
the moment of the offense. All patients had committed at least one type of violent crime
and were found not guilty by reasons of insanity (NGRI). Most common index offenses
96
offenses involving injury to the victim 5 (4.7%) and other violent offences 22 (20.5%).
The average length of stay at the forensic institution was 139 months (SD= 93.7,
assess risk violence. The instrument contains 20 risk factors grouped into three scales:
Historical (H), Clinical (C) and Risk Management (R). Factors are scored on a three-
point scale indicating the presence (2), possible presence (1) or absence of each risk
factor (0). Higher scores are indicative of higher risk of re-offending. A final clinical risk
excellent predictive validity (for a review of over 50 studies published on the HCR-20,
see Douglas and Reeves, 2010). Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the
HCR-20 have also been shown to have adequate interrater reliability and predictive
validity (AUCs=.69-.77) for violent incidents (Arbach-Lucioni et al., 2011) and its cross-
cultural comparability have been found satisfactory. The HCR-20 has been found to be
a useful tool for violence prediction within the psychiatric institutions (Arbach-Lucioni et
al., 2011; Doyle, Dolan, & Mc Govern, 2002; Tengström et al., 2006) and in the
The PCL:SV (Hart et al., 1995) consists of 12 items rated on a three-point scale
ranging from 0 to 24. A cut-off score of 18 and above has been recommended to
have been confirmed in numerous studies reporting high correlations with the original
97
Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 1991) and adequate cross-cultural
reliability (Cooke, Michie, Hart, & Clark, 2005). The PCL:SV has been shown to be the
populations (Cooke & Michie, 1999) and includes two robust factors that capture the
2.3 Procedure
This study was approved by the forensic hospital directive committee. Patient´s
data were collected prior to the beginning of the follow-up. To guarantee reliability of
trained in the use of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV. Interrater correlations were high for both
instruments. The total scores for the HCR-20 was .79 and .87 for the PCL:SV.
case file review and an interview using multiple file-based information. The files
included detailed reports from psychiatrists, psychologists, social workers and criminal
reports completed by the court as part of the clinical routine. Patients were monitored
for violent incidents within the institution and followed up 24 month by examining the
1997, p.24). This definition allowed for the inclusion of harmful or injurious acts to
others as well as property damage with the goal to frighten or threaten another person,
intended to induce fear or to harm against others. Violence incidents within the
98
institution were prospectively monitored by the staff observation using the Spanish
version of the Modified Overt Aggression Scale (MOAS; Arbach-Lucioni et al., 2011).
and severity of four types of aggressive behaviour: (1) verbal aggression, (2)
aggression towards objects, (3) self-injury, and (4) physical aggression against others.
behaviour) to 4 (severe behaviour). The MOAS has been found to have appropriate
aggressive psychiatric patients (Margarit et al., 2005). For study purpose, only physical
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to examine the predictive
accuracy of the HCR-20 and the PCL:SV scores. ROC analysis have been shown to be
a valid method in research on the prediction of violence due to its much less sensitive
to base rate than other indices (Mossman, 1994). In addition, it provides similar
information as that yielded by the Cohen´s effect size (Dolan & Doyle, 2000). In the
current method, the accuracy is expressed in terms of sensitivity and specificity. The
area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC analysis is used to assess the accuracy of
prediction. AUC value can be interpreted as the probability that a randomly selected
selected non-recidivism (Pedersen, Ramussen and Elsass, 2012). AUC values range
1.00 represents perfect predictions. In general, AUC values of .70 and above are
considered indicative of moderate to large, and values above .75 as large (Douglas et
al., 2010). For most analyses violence was coded as dichotomously (0= no violence;
99
To address the reliability of the raters, intraclass correlations (ICCs) were performed.
The ICCs have been extensively used to measure reliability or degree of resemblance
between raters, being considered equivalent to the Cohen´s kappa coefficient (Shieh,
2014). Additionally, we also examined whether HCR-20 final risk judgement added
incremental validity to the HCR-20 numerical scores. All statistical analyses were
3. Results
Of the 107 patients in the sample, 32 (29.2%) committed at least one act of any
type of violence during the period of study. A total of 27 (25.2%) were detected to
while 12 (11.2%) were classified as having perpetrated physical violence. The majority
defined as any violent event not resulting in harm to the victim, while 2 (16.7%) as
of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV scales. Overall, the intraclass correlation in both
instruments was moderate to high ranging from .79 for the HCR-20 total score to .87
for the PCL:SV total score. The HCR-20 total score ranged from 11 to 37 with a mean
score of 21.48 (SD= 6.21) while the PCLV:SV total score ranging from 0 to 20 with a
mean score of 8.86 (SD= 4.72). Aggressive patients had significantly higher scores on
the HCR-20 total score (t = - 6.3; df = 105; p < .001; M = 26.5 [SD = 5.5] vs. M = 19.3
[SD = 5.1]) and on the PCL:SV total score (t =-4.9; df = 105; p < .001; M = 11.9 [SD =
4.6] vs. M = 7.5 [SD = 4.1]). The HCR-20 final structured risk judgements classified 51
(47.7%) of the patients as low risk, 23 (21.5%) as moderate risk and 33 (30.8%) as
100
high risk. The proportion of patients who were violent across the follow-up differed
significantly across structured final risk categories (χ2= 35.3, df= 2, p<.001).
Thus, the highest percentage of violence occurred among those patients who
were classified as moderate (n=7; 30.4%) and high (n =22; 66.7%) risk level.
PCL:SV
Table 2 presents the results of the predictive validity of the HCR-20 and
PCL:SV. For all three types of aggressive behaviour, the HCR-20 total score showed a
moderate to large predictive ability, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) value
ranging from .82 (for any violence) to .82 (for verbal threats and intimidation behaviors)
to .73 (for physical aggression). The PCL:SV total score produced a more moderate
AUCs with values ranged from .78 (for any violence) to .78 (for verbal aggression) to
.65 (for physical aggression). Both instruments were statistically significant in predicting
future inpatient aggression with AUC values greater than chance. However, the HCR-
101
20 total score was a more robust predictor of future violence for the three types of
Table 2: Area under the ROC curves for HCR-20 and PLC:SV instruments
“physical violence” as outcome variables to examine whether the HCR-20 final risk
judgement could add incremental validity to the HCR-20 numerical scores. In both
models, the HCR-20 subscales were entered as predictors on block 1. The HCR-20
final risk judgements were entered on block 2 by using the forward conditional method.
The results are presented in Table 3. When “any violence” was used as an outcome
model fit in block 1 (-2 log likelihood= 95.717, chi= 34.838, df=3, p<.001), but only the
H and C subscale were significant in block 2. Then, the structured professional risk
judgments were entered in block 2, producing a similar model fit (-2 log likelihood=
84.855, chi= 45.700, df=4, p<.001). Similar results were observed using “physical
violence” as outcome variable in block 1 (-2 log likelihood= 64.075, chi= 11.036, df=3,
p=.012). Only the C subscale contributed significantly to the prediction of this model. In
102
block 2, the structured final risk judgments contributed to significant improvement in the
final model´s fit (-2 log likelihood= 59.134, chi= 15.977, df=4, p=.003).
Table 3. Regression analyses comparing numerical scores and structural final risk
judgments on the HCR-20
Any violence
Block 1
Hsubscale .239 .077 9.663 1.270 .002
Csubscale .358 .125 8.169 1.431 .004
Rsubscale .066 .137 .232 1.068 .630
Block 2
Hsubscale .158 .084 3.541 1.171 .060
Csubscale .110 .159 .480 1.116 .488
Rsubscale -.095 .151 .392 .910 .531
SPJa 1.298 .521 6.204 3.662 .013
Physical violence
Block 1
Hsubscale .000 .089 .000 1.000 .998
Csubscale .327 .165 3.920 1.387 .048
Rsubscale .263 .168 2.443 1.301 .118
Block 2
HCR_HScale -.091 .097 .888 .913 .346
HCR_CScale .061 .200 .094 1.063 .759
HCR_RScale .125 .176 .505 1.133 .477
SPJa 1.565 .742 4.448 4.783 .035
4. Discussion
This is the first prospective study to compare the predictive validity of HCR-20
male offenders from Spain. In the present study 107 long-term sentenced offenders
who had committed severe violent crimes were followed up 24 months at institution by
103
violently at one or more times across the follow-up, of which 12 (11.2%) committed a
physical act of violence. The base-rate of inpatient violence observed in our sample
was lower than reported in other previous forensic psychiatric studies (Dernevik,
Grann, & Johansson, 2002; Gray et al., 2003; Rasmussen & Levander, 1996; Nicholls,
Brink, Desmarais, Webster, & Martin, 2006; Tengström et al., 2006). Our results are in
line to that reported by De Vogel & De Ruiter (2006) in a sample of 127 male mentally
committed any act of physical violence across the follow-up. The lower rates of
aggressive behaviours in the present study might be due to several reasons. Firstly, we
only included patients with a primary diagnosis of major mental disorders (MMDs).
Some evidence suggests that the prevalence of aggressive behaviours within forensic
examining the predictive accuracy of the HCR-20 and the PCL:SV in a sample 216
forensic patients who were classified into the diagnostic groups of schizophrenia,
personality disorder and cognitively impaired patients, Tengtröm et al., (2006) found
that the prevalence of violent and antisocial behaviours ranged from 44% among
and 25% among personality disordered patients. Secondly, most patients in our study
were residing on a specific unit at the hospital called “education and respectful” module
aggressive behaviors in our sampe was influenced by the less restrictive environment.
Another explanation might be the use of adequate risk management strategies by staff.
The mean scores on the HCR-20 and PCL:SV risk assessment tools were
significantly higher in patients who were violent during follow-up. The proportion of
aggressive patients differed significantly across structured final risk categories with the
highest percentage of violence occurred among those patients who were classified as
moderate and high risk level. The HCR-20 and PCL:SV were significantly predictive of
104
institutional violence with moderate to large effect sizes. However, the HCR-20 added
incremental validity over the PCL:SV for violent behaviours within hospital. The AUCs
values for the HCR-20 total scores ranged from .73 to .82 while for the PCL:SV scores
ranged from .65 to .78. These results are similar to other studies where the predictive
validity of the HCR-20 and the PCLS:SV in forensic psychiatric patients demonstrates
that compared with HCR-20, the PCL:SV produce a more variable AUC values
(Douglas et al., 2003 Douglas et al., 1999). The HCR-20 total score was the most
robust predictor of both physical and verbal institutional aggression. The Clinical
subscale contributed most significantly to this effect size for physical aggressive. The
superiority of the Clinical subscale for predicting aggressive behaviours found in our
study is perhaps not surprising given the fact that all patients in our sample met the
criteria for a diagnosis of major mental disorders and most of them had reported a
history of psychotic symptoms. Finally, final risk judgement of the HCR-20 added
incremental validity to the HCR-20 numerical scores. For physical violence, the C
4.1 Limitations
The present study has several limitations which require areas for future
examination. First, the sample was limited to mentally disordered patients residing on a
“respectful module”, thereby the low rate of aggressive behaviours found in our sample
might be influenced by the context of study. Also, it is possible that only those severe
incidents of physical aggression requiring medical examination were taken into account
on the incident bulletins, thus many aggressive incidents might have not been
observed by staff. Second, our sample was restricted to male patients, so results
should be interpreted with caution when comparing with female mentally disordered
offenders. Despite these limitations, our results support the use of the HCR-20 and
PCL: SV for clinical practice in Spain by providing evidence of the accuracy of these
105
Acknowledgements
No funding to declare. The authors would like to thank the patients who
participated in this study as well as the Alicante Forensic Psychiatric Hospital for
106
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Capítulo 8: Suicide Risk Assessment in a sample
of Offenders with Schizophrenia and other
Psychosis.
111
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Capítulo 8 Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Psychosis
Miriam Sánchez San Segundo1, Rosario Ferrer-Cascales1, Jesús Herranz Bellido2, Mar
Pastor Bravo3; Javi Oltra-Cucarella; Harry G Kennedy4
2
Department of Psychology, Alicante Forensic Psychiatric Hospital, Spain
Department of Psychiatry, Institute of Legal Medicine, Alicante, Spain
3
4
Department of Psychiatry, University of Dublin, Trinity College, Dundrum, Ireland.
Central Mental Hospital, Dundrum, Dublin, Ireland
Abstract
This study examined the predictive validity of the Spanish version of the Suicide Risk
Assessment (S-RAMM) in a sample of violent offenders with schizophrenia and other
psychosis, who had committed violent crimes and had been sentenced to compulsory
psychiatric treatment. Patients were prospectively monitored within institution across 18
months by staff members who recorded suicide and violent incidents using the S-
RAMM and HCR-20 risk assessment tools. Over the follow-up period, 25% of offenders
were involved in any suicidal behavior including acts of self-harm, suicidal ideation and
suicide attempts and 34% of sample behaved violently. The S-RAMM and HCR-20 risk
assessment tools were strongly correlated and were able to predict suicide and
violence with a moderate-large effect size (AUCs = .81-.85; AUCs= .78-.80
respectively). Patients scoring above the mean on the S-RAMM (> 20-point cut-off) and
HCR-20 (>21-point cut-off) had a five times increased risk of suicide (OR = 5.15, 95%
CI = 2.75-9.80) and sevenfold risk of reoffending (OR= 7.04, 95% CI= 2.1-23.3) than
those scoring below the mean. Offenders at high risk for suicide and violence had
significant more suicide attempts (p < .001) and more prior sentences for violent crimes
(p < .001). These results support the use of the S-RAMM and HCR-20 for clinical
practice by providing strong evidence of the utility of these measures for predicting risk
for suicide and violence in mentally disordered offenders.
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Psychosis
1. Introduction
patients with schizophrenia (Kascknow et al., 2014). Compared with the general
population, patients with schizophrenia and other psychoses are at increased risk for
suicide, violence and mortality (Fazel, Wolf, Palm, & Lichtenstein, 2014). A number of
studies have demonstrated that between 40-79% of patients with schizophrenia and
other psychoses report suicidal ideation (Gill et al., 2015; Skodlar, Tomori, & Parnas,
2008) and between 20-40% of these individuals make suicide attempts during the
course of illness. The lifetime risk of suicide for people with schizophrenia is estimated
to be between 4 % and 10%, which remains significantly higher than the general
presence of multiple risk factors. While some risk factors such as mood disorder,
previous suicide attempts, or drug misuse are common and shared with the general
population (Popovic et al., 2014) there are other specific factors related to this disorder
(Hawton, Sutton, Haw, Sinclair, & Deeks, 2005; Siris, 2001). In a systematic review of
risk factors for schizophrenia and suicide Hawton et al. (2005) identified seven strong
disorders, previous suicide attempts, drug misuse, agitation, fear, poor adherence to
treatment and recent loss. Suicide in schizophrenia has also been associated in some
studies with the presence of active delusions and hallucinations (Hor & Taylor, 2010).
Some authors have suggested that violence and self-harm may occur during the
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al., 2014). However the risk of suicide among these patients remains relatively constant
following discharge (Meehan et al., 2006; Qin, & Nordentoft, 2005). Identifying risk
factors for suicide and self-harm has been established as the best strategy for
predicting and preventing suicide and other adverse consequences on patients at high
risk (Pompili et al., 2007). However the prediction of risk for suicide has been
considered an imprecise and complex process leading to many false positive results
In recent years there has been a growing interest in improving the accuracy of risk
Fazel, Gueorguieva, & Buchanan, 2014). Such schemes provide guidelines for
assessing risk based on empirical risk factors that are amenable to clinical
interventions and are coded in a flexible way in order to enhance a decision (Douglas &
Skeem, 2005). However, while there are well validated tools for assessing risk of
violence in mentally disordered populations such as the HCR-20 which has been
widely tested in clinical, forensic and correctional settings, little effort has been paid to
adapt these tools for the assessment of risk of suicide (Ijaz, Papaconstantinou, O´Neil,
& Kennedy, 2009). In addition, the few existing research studies of suicide in
individuals with schizophrenia and other psychoses are restricted to civil patients, but
much less is known about violent offenders admitted to secure psychiatric hospitals
and correctional settings (Horon, McManus, Schmollinger, Barr, & Jimenez, 2013;
Shibre et al., 2014). Some recent studies suggest that exposure to the criminal justice
system contributes to elevating the suicide risk especially among people sentenced to
psychiatric treatment and among those experiencing multiple contacts or with a history
of charges for violent offenses (Webb et al., 2011). Suicide risk among these
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populations has been found to be between 11 to 14 times greater than in the general
population (Lekka, Argyriou, & Beratis, 2006; McKee, 1998) and is more prominent
confined in a single cell (Lekka et al., 2006), and sentenced to long-term detention after
The aim of this study was examined the predictive validity of the Suicide Risk
court. To our knowledge, the S-RAMM is the first structured professional judgement
tool developed for identifying risk factors associated with suicide and self-harm and for
planning risk management. The S-RAMM has been reported to have a good inter-rater
levels of security within secure psychiatric hospitals (Ijaz et al., 2009). The S-RAMM
has also been found to be a valid and feasible measure for predicting self-harm and
suicidal behaviors with areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) ranking from
0.79 to 0.99 (Fagan, Papaconstantinou, Ijaz, Lynch, , O'Neill, & Kennedy, 2009).
We hypothesized that the Spanish version of the S-RAMM will perform better than
chance for the prediction of suicidal behaviors in criminal offenders. Also, because of
evidence showing that suicide and violence often co-occur in this population (Hunt et
al., 2006; Suokas, Perälä, Suominen, Saarni, Lönnqvist, & Suvisaari, 2010; Witt,
Hawton, & Fazel, 2014), we investigated this association by using the The Historical-
validated tool for the structured professional judgement of risk of violence in mentally
However, while the S-RAMM would perform better for suicide risk, the HCR-20 should
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schizophrenia and other psychoses who had committed violent crimes and had been
2. Methods
2.1 Participants
(Spain) which provides medium and maximum-security for all violent offenders
admitted from the Spanish courts or transferred from prisons because of a mental
disorder. At time of the study there were a total population of 250 patients at the
institution over the total of 400 mentally disordered offenders across Spain. Around
30% of patients (N=75) were admitted under psychiatric orders after committing a
The sample included 83 mentally disordered violent offenders who were part of a large
study of neuropsychology and recidivism carried out at the institution. Participants were
included in the study if they: (i) had a primary clinical diagnosis of severe mental illness
Disorders (DSM-IV-TR, 4th American Psychiatric Association, 1994); and ii) had
and iii) had been found not criminally responsible by reasons of insanity by the Spanish
Criminal Justice. Participants were excluded if they (iv) had severe symptoms of
Scale (PANSS) at the moment of assessment that would affect their ability to answer
the questions during the interview (Peralta, & Cuesta, 1994), (iv) had been declared
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incapacitated or legally incompetent by the Spanish civil law, and (v) their primary
language was other than Spanish. Of the 83 initial patients eligible to participate in the
take part, 4 (4.8%) were transferred to prison or discharged to community during the
follow-up, 3 (5.8%) could not be scored due to missing items on the risk assessment
tools and 52 (62.7%) formally consented. The majority of the sample (72%) was
psychiatric treatment. The patients were aged, on average, 45.4 years (SD=8.4).
Diagnoses of severe mental illness for schizophrenia were met by 62.2%, while 13.7%
and 7.6% other psychotic disorders. In addition, 22.5% of the sample met criteria for a
comorbid diagnosis of personality disorder and 60.8% of the total sample met criteria
(GAF; Jones, Thornicroft, Coffey, & Dunn, 1995) the majority of patients were
moderately ill (69.7%) at time of the study with a mean score of 52.14 (SD=13.92).
Most participants (91.9%, n=46) had a long previous history of psychiatric treatment
with at least two or more prior contacts with Mental Health Services. The most common
(n=19) followed by homicide or attempted homicide (34.7%, n=18) and other severe
violent offences, including assault (13.4%, n=7), sexual offence (5.7% n=3), and violent
threats of death (9.6% n=5). The average length of stay at the institution was 143
months (SD = 81.12, range 6-360 months). The majority of patients had committed
their offences against family members or known victims (71.2%, n=37) and 13.4%
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The present study was approved by the Ethic Committee of the Alicante Forensic
Helsinki, 1964). All participants were mentally capable and legally competent to give
written informed consent according to the Spanish Civil Law Procedure (art.293).
Patients were informed that their answer would have no negative consequences and
2.3 Measures
tool designed for assessment of risk of suicide. The instrument provides a structured
approach to determining the level of suicide risk and the issues that need to be
addressed for planning risk management. The S-RAMM contains 22 risk factor items
grouped into three scales containing: 9 Background Risk Factors (B), 8 Current Risk
Factors (C) and 5 Future Risk Factors (F). Each factor is scored on a three-point scale
indicating the presence (2), possible presence (1) or absence of each risk factor (0).
Higher scores indicate higher risk of suicide. The psychometric properties of the
English version have previously been shown to have adequate inter-rater reliability and
internal consistency with Cronbach´s alpha values above 0.8 for the total score (Ijaz et
al., 2009). The S-RAMM has also been found to be a useful tool for prediction of self-
harm within forensic psychiatric institutions with excellent predictive validity (AUC=0.89,
IC 95% 0.79-0.99) (see Fagan, Papaconstantinou, Ijaz, Lynch, O'Neill, & Kennedy,
2009). Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the S-RAMM have also been
shown to have adequate interrater reliability and adequate internal consistency for all
subscales and for the total score with Cronbach´s alpha values above 0.89 (in
preparation).
tool designed for assessment of risk of violence. The instrument contains 20 risk
factors grouped into three scales: Historical (H), Clinical (C) and Risk Management (R).
Factors are scored on a three-point scale indicating the presence (2), possible
presence (1) or absence of each risk factor (0). Higher scores indicate higher risk of
violent acts. A final clinical risk judgement is provided as low, moderate or high risk,
indicating the specific interventions aimed to manage violence risk. The psychometric
properties of the instrument have been examined in numerous studies reporting rates
the HCR-20, see Douglas and Reeves, 2010). Psychometric properties of the Spanish
version of the HCR-20 have also been shown to have adequate interrater reliability and
Adverse events of suicide and violence were prospectively monitored within the
institution over an 18 month period. Suicidal behaviors were classified into two broad
categories including acts of self-harm defined in the S-RAMM Manual (item B1) as
“attempted suicide or self-injury which includes a range of behaviors between low and
high suicidal lethality” and “suicidal ideation, communication or intent” (S-RAMM item
C1). A combined measure of suicidal behaviors was then derived from the sum of
these two. Violence was defined according to HCR-20 manual as “actual, attempted or
harmful or injurious acts to others as well as property damage with the goal to frighten
or threaten another person, verbal threats, insults, intimidation, and other behaviors
perceived as malevolent intended to induce fear or to harm others. For the purpose of
the present study, only verbal threats and physical violence directed towards others
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were considered. From these two, a composite outcome measure of “any violence”
was derived.
2.5 Procedure
Demographic, clinical and criminal variables were collected at baseline from patient´s
hospital files including an interview with each participant prior to the beginning of the
chosen randomly from the dataset. Two independent psychologists trained in the use
of the risk assessment instruments carried out assessments. Each rater was blind to
the assessment of the other. Outcomes for suicide and violence were then monitored
across 18 months of follow-up within institution (from May 2014 to August 2015).
Incidents were collected by staff observations as part of the clinical routine and from
the incident reporting systems. An independent forensic psychologist (JH) who was
blind to the scores on the predictions recorded acts of suicide and violence.
(ICC) using the two-way random effect model. According to Fleiss (1986) ICC values
above .75 represent excellent reliability, values between .40 and .75 good reliability,
while values below .040 suggest poor reliability. Correlations between suicide and
parametric measure to avoid the assumption of normality. Odds ratio were calculated
to detect differences in suicide and violence between high and low scores on the S-
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controlling for time spent within forensic psychiatric hospital by entering the log of time
as risk, with its parameter fixed as 1 as a covariate, into the regression model.
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to examine the predictive
accuracy of the S-RAMM and HCR-20. ROC analysis has been shown to be a valid
method in research for the prediction of suicide and violence because it is much less
sensitive to base rate than other procedures (Mossman, 1994). The area under the
curve (AUC) of the ROC is used to assess the accuracy of prediction. It reflects the
probably that any individual will be correctly classified. AUC values range from 0 to 1,
where an AUC of .50 represents chance-level prediction and an AUC of 1.00 perfect
predictions. In general, AUC values of .70 and above are considered indicative of
moderate to large effect size while values above .75 are interpreted as large (Douglas,
Guy, Reeves, & Weir, 2008). All data were analyzed using SPSS for the Social
3. Results
Table 1 shows descriptive characteristics and interrater reliability of the S-RAMM and
HCR-20. The S-RAMM total score ranged from 5 to 41, with a mean score of 19.9
(SD= 6.4). The HCR-20 total score ranged from 5 to 35, with a mean score of 20.5
(SD= 7.6). Overall, the intra-class correlation in both instruments was moderate to high
ranging from .79 for the S-RAMM total score to .87 for the HCR-20 total score,
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Table 1: Descriptive characteristics and Interrater Reliability of the S-RAMM and HCR-20.
S-RAMM Total 19.96 6.43 0.58 5-41 13.5 20.0 24.0 27.7 0.79
B Scale 9.27 3.27 0.45 2-17 7.0 9.5 12.0 13.0 0.82
C Scale 6.46 3.34 0.42 0-16 4.0 6.0 8.7 11.7 0.76
F Scale 4.17 2.87 0.38 1-10 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 0.79
HCR-20 Total 20.52 7.59 0.56 5-35 13.5 20.0 28.5 33.7 0.87
H Scale 10.27 4.94 0.59 3-19 7.0 9.50 14.5 18.0 0.88
C Scale 4.52 2.54 0.35 0-10 2.0 5.0 6.0 8.0 0.83
R Scale 5.79 2.63 0.36 0-10 4.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 0.81
Note: N=52; SD= Standard deviation; SE= Standard error; ICC= Intraclass correlation coefficient; B=Background Subscale;
C=Current Risk; F= Future Risk; H= Historical Subscale; C= Clinical Subscale; R= Risk Subscale.
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Table 2 shows pattern correlations between the S-RAMM and HCR-20. Because
the S-RAMM has been designed following the structure of the HCR-20, two of its items
(Mental disorder) and B5 (Personality) from the correlation analysis to avoid conflation
between items of both measures. As expected, we found that S-RAMM total score and
subscales correlated significantly with HCR-20 scores, particularly with the total score
Instrument B C F HCR-20 H C R
S-RAMM total .63** .84 ** .72** .65** .60** .58** .49**
B Subscale .42** .10 .27* .38** .23 .13
C Subscale .48** .57** .48** .48** .51**
F Subscale .65** .51** .63** .53**
HCR-20 total .86** .83** .83**
H Subscale .57** .57**
C Subscale .64**
Note: **p < .001, *p < .05.
including one completed suicide and one suspected death by suicide, while 11
such incidents 10 (83.3%) were classified as serious requiring medical treatment and
monitoring. Hanging (83.3%) was the most common method among attempters
unsuccessful due to close monitoring by the staff members. For violence, 18 (34.6%)
patients were involved in any violent incident during the follow-up period at the
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patients or members of the staff, while 17 (32.7%) showed verbal aggression including
3.4 Differences between offenders with and without aggressive and suicide behaviours
The percentage of patients who behaved violently and showed any incident of self-
harm, ideation or communication of suicide across the follow-up was 84.6% (n=11).
Compared with non-suicidal patients, patients who were involved in any suicide event
showed higher total score on the S-RAMM (t= -3.7; df= 50; p < .001; M= 25.9 [SD=
5.09] vs. M= 18.0 [SD= 7.05] and higher total score on the HCR-20 for violence
incidents (t= 2.7; df= 50; p < .01; M= 25.3 [SD= 6.85] vs. M= 18.9 [SD= 8.56]. Patients
scoring above the mean on the S-RAMM (> 20-point cut-off) and HCR-20 (>21-point
cut-off) had a five times increased risk of suicide (OR = 5.15, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80) and
sevenfold risk of reoffending (OR= 7.04, 95% CI= 2.1-23.3) than those scoring below
the mean. Furthermore, patients scoring in the upper half on the S-RAMM and HCR-20
total score had significant more suicide attempts (M = 4.2 vs. M = 1.1, z = -3.9, p <
.001) and more prior sentences for violent crimes (M = 6.1 vs. 3.7, z = -4.12, p < .001).
suicidal patients and non-aggressive and suicidal patients with respect to educational
level (p ≥ 0.67), marital status (p ≥ 0.73) and history of drug misuse (p ≥ 0.08).
Table 4 shows the results of the predictive validity of the S-RAMM for predicting
suicidal behaviors.
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Table 3: Areas Under ROC Curves for suicide behaviours by using the S-RAMM risk assessment tool.
SRAMM B .73 .07 .58-.88 .36** .61 .06 .50-.80 .31* .73 .06 .57-.89 .34*
SRAMM C .76 .06 .63-.89 .41** .77 .07 .60-.88 .30* .78 .06 .65-.89 .42**
SRAMM F .75 .06 .63-.88 .40** .74 .07 .60-.87 .28* .73 .07 .60-.86 .35*
Note: AUC= Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; S-RAMM = Suicide, Risk, Assessment Manual; CI = Confidence interval;
ns= not significant.
Table 4: Areas Under ROC Curves for violence behaviours by using the HCR-20 risk assessment tool.
HCR 20 Total .80 .06 .67-.91 .49** .79 .06 .67-.89 .41** .78 .06 .65-.90 .47**
H HCR .78 .06 .64-.90 .46** .78 .06 .64-.89 .37** .77 .07 .64-.89 .45**
C HCR .75 .06 .62-.88 .43** .76 .06 .63-.88 .31* .74 .06 .61-.87 .40**
R HCR .71 .07 .57-.84 .35* .71 .07 .57-.87 .26* .70 .07 .56-.84 .34*
Note: AUC= Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; HCR-20 = Historical, Clinical and Risk Management; CI = Confidence
interval; ns= not significant
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For all forms of suicide, the S-RAMM total score showed a large predictive
validity with AUC ranging from .85 (for suicide ideation), to .81 (for self-harm) and
correlations for suicide ranging between .52 to .35. For the combined measure of any
suicidal behaviour, the S-RAMM total score was also found to be a good predictor of
suicide (AUC= .85) and it was significantly correlated with all forms of suicide with a
medium-large effect size (r= .54). The Background, Clinical and Future subscales of
the S-RAMM produced a similar pattern of correlation and predictive values for all
suicidal behaviors with little difference between the subscales (figure 1).
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The predictive ability of the HCR-20 total score for inpatient aggression was
large, with AUC values of .78 for threatening behaviours and .80 for physical acts of
violence (r = .47-.41). For the combined measure of any violence, the HCR-20 total
score was a significant predictor of violence (AUC = .85; r =. 49). The AUC values for
all subscales of the HCR-20 produced a moderate to large predictive validity with
significant correlations for all subtypes of violence behaviours. However, overall, the
HCR-20 total score was consistently better than either of the subscales (see figure 4).
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3.6 Are both instruments able to predict suicide and violence similarly?
instruments were able to predict suicide and violence significantly better than chance.
We hypothesized that while the S-RAMM would perform better for suicide risk as
intended, the HCR-20 would perform better for violence. As expected, for the outcome
HCR-20 total score (AUC=.71, p<.05), and the historical subscale (AUC=.76, p<.01)
were significant predictors of suicide, but not the clinical and future subscales. For self-
harm events, only the HCR-20 total score (AUC=.71) was significantly better than
chance, but less than the AUCs for the S-RAMM. Similarly, for suicidal ideation,
communication or intent as defined in S-RAMM C1, only the HCR-20 total score
For violence as defined in the HCR-20, only the S-RAMM total score (AUC=.68)
predicted the outcome criteria of any violence, but not the background, clinical and
future subscales of the S-RAMM. The same pattern of results was found for physical
and threatening behaviors. Only the S-RAMM total score was a significant predictor of
these outcomes (AUC=.68 and AUC=.71, respectively) but less than the AUCs for the
HCR-20. The background, clinical and future subscales of the S-RAMM were not
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4. Discussion
predictive validity of the Suicide Risk Assessment and Management Manual (S-RAMM)
in a sample of mentally disordered violent offenders who had been found not criminally
structured professional judgement (SPJ) tool validated in Spanish for identifying risk
factors associated with suicide and self-harm and planning risk management
strategies. The results of this study clearly show that suicide within forensic psychiatric
RAMM.
We found that the S-RAMM was strongly predictive of all forms of suicidal
behaviour over a period of 18 months. The S-RAMM total score was found to
contribute most to the large effect size with AUC values ranging from .81 to .85. The
related with suicide behaviors with little variation of AUC values between subscales.
These results are similar to those reported by Fagan et al., (2009) in a prospective
study examining the predictive ability of the S-RAMM over a short period of 6 months.
They found that the S-RAMM was a good predictor of self-harm and suicidal behaviors
in a sample of mentally disordered offenders with AUC values ranking from 0.79 to
0.99. The prevalence of suicidal behaviors observed in their study across 6-months of
follow-up was 16%. The majority of patients reported incidents of suicidal ideation,
The base-rate of suicidal behaviors found in the present study was reasonably high.
We reported that 25% of offenders in our cohort were involved in any suicidal behavior
across the follow-up, including acts of self-harm, suicidal ideation and suicide attempts.
However, the base-rate for suicide dropped from 25 to 12% when the outcome criterion
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was restricted to self-harm and fatal suicide. We can speculate that the nature of the
access to methods of suicide might have inhibited the suicidal tendencies of patients at
high risk who might be much more vulnerable to these behaviors in less restrictive
A high prevalence of suicide and self-harm has been reported previously among
Gibbons, Nulty, & Kennedy, 2013; Webb et al., 2011) and correctional populations
(Fazel, Cartwright, Norman-Nott, & Hawton, 2008; Lekka et al., 2006; Palmer, &
plans or wishes to self-injuries and fatal outcomes (Lekka et al., 2006). Some specific
imprisonment, mental illness, and duration of custody may exacerbate this set of
circumstances and contribute to increase risk for suicide (Palmer & Connelly, 2005). In
a recent national Danish case-control study of all suicide committed from 1981 to 2006
by people processed for any criminal charge, Webb et al., (2011), found that a past
history of psychiatric treatment was closely related with a more than 13-fold higher
suicide risk in men and 25-fold increase in woman. They demonstrated that exposure
to the criminal justice system contributed to elevating risk for suicide, especially among
people sentenced to psychiatric treatment and among those with a history of violent
offense charges (Webb et al., 2011). In addition, among people charged with violent
offences, intense feelings of regret and guilty may also play a key role in self-harming
behaviors and suicide, particularly if offences were committed against family members
(Palmer & Connelly, 2005; Webb et al., 2011). These findings are supported by the
results of the present study. We found that most patients in our cohort were charged
with murder or homicide (71.3%) and the majority of violent offences were directed
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The results of the present study also add support to the literature of violence that
suggests that suicide and violence co-occur among patients with schizophrenia (Hunt
et al., 2006; Suokas et al., 2010; Witt, Hawton, & Fazel, 2014) and among forensic
populations with these diagnoses (Webb et al., 2011). We examined the risk for
violence in our cohort by examining the incident reporting system. Patients were also
assessed at baseline by using the HCR-20 and were subsequently followed-up across
the period of study. We observed that 84.6% of patients in our cohort who behave
suicide during the period of follow-up. Compared with non-suicidal patients, offenders
who were involved in any suicidal behaviors showed higher scores above the mean in
As in previous studies, we also reported that the HCR-20 was an excellent predictor of
institutional violence. The historical, clinical and risk HCR-20 subscales had good
predictive accuracy ranged from .70 to 78 for predicting a wide range of physical,
threatening, and any violent behaviors. However, the HCR-20 total score was found to
contribute most to this large effect size with AUC values ranged from .78 to .80. Similar
findings of the predictive ability of the HCR-20 for predicting institutional violent
(Douglas, Ogloff, & Hart, 2003; McDermott, Edens, Quanbeck, Busse, & Scott, 2008)
and correctional settings (Gray, Hill, McGleish, Timmons, MacCulloch, & Snowden,
2003).
As we hypothesized the S-RAMM and HCR-20 were able to predict suicide and
violence respectively with moderate to large effect sizes. However, while the S-RAMM
was more strongly related to suicide behaviors including acts of self-harm, ideation and
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communication of suicide, the HCR-20 had higher AUC values than the S-RAMM for
predicting violent behaviors within the institution. Only the total scores of both
measures were able to cross-predict suicide and violence with AUC values greater
than chance. These findings are not surprisingly given that these measures and their
association between risk for suicide and violence was confirmed by the correlational
analyses. We observed that the S-RAMM and HCR-20 were strongly correlated for the
total score. These findings support results found in some recent studies showing that
The current study have a number of strengths that increase confidence in the
validity of the results. The longitudinal prospective nature of the present study across
RAMM and HCR-20 for clinical practice. Patient´s information was collected from
multiple sources including an interview with each participant, clinical files and hospital
psychologists trained in the use of these measures who were blind to outcomes of
predictions; also, while the prediction of risk has been found to vary by diagnosis
(Grann, Belfrage, & Tengström, 2000) and phase of illness (Hodgins & Riaz, 2011), the
sample of the present study was restricted to criminal offenders with a chronic course
treatment. Limitations of the present study include the lack of information on the timing
of suicide and violent behaviors and the small sample size. An additional limitation of
the present study is that the S-RAMM and HCR-20 were used to predict intra-
institutional suicide and violence behaviors, therefore, whether these measures can
examined in future studies. In spite of these limitation, our study provide a unique
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schizophrenia and other psychosis in Spain. These results are promising for clinical
psychiatric patients.
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9. Discusión General
Canadá y algunas regiones de Europa. En España sin embargo, existen muy pocos
las trayectorias del comportamiento criminal que presentan los individuos que cometen
seguridad. La presente tesis doctoral realiza un recorrido por los factores que motivan el
inicio de la delincuencia juvenil y adulta con especial énfasis en el rol que ejerce el
con los delitos violentos cometidos por la población encarcelada. Para ello, se han
empíricos. Los principales resultados de cada uno de los estudios aparecen recogidos
discuten los hallazgos más significativos obtenidos en cada uno de los estudios
planteados, las limitaciones y las perspectivas de futuro que abren nuevas vías
investigación.
(D´Amico, Edelen, Miles, y Morral, 2008; Murphy, Brecht, Huang, y Herbeck, 2012) y con
violencia, el fracaso escolar o los problemas familiares (Bond et al., 2007; Gore et al.,
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
2011; Mathers et al., 2006). Los resultados obtenidos en nuestros estudios confirman
cuentan con un ambiente familiar más desfavorable. La edad de inicio del consumo de
conducta delictiva (Bond et al., 2007; Farrington, 1986, 2009; Fothergill et al., 2008;
Loeber et al., 2011; Mathers et al., 2006). Controlando el efecto de la edad y el tipo de
las prácticas parentales permisivas en relación al consumo. Este efecto fue más
significativo entre los adolescentes que contaban con un progenitor paterno consumidor
de alcohol y con una madre con actitudes permisivas hacia el consumo. Nuestros
resultados son similares a los obtenidos en un estudio previo realizado en España por
Sobral, Romero, Luengo y Marzoa (2000), quienes evaluaron los principales factores
relaciones problemáticas con los padres y hermanos y las prácticas educativas punitivas
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al., 2010; Bryant et al., 2000; Martins y Alexandre, 2009), sin embargo, otras
del consumo de drogas entre los adolescentes (Henry et al., 2007; Fothergill et al., 2008;
Bond et al., 2007; Mathers et al., 2006). La concurrencia de estos factores problemáticos
hace que la adolescencia sea una etapa arriesgada para el inicio en el consumo de
emergentes. Se ha demostrado que los jóvenes que muestran una percepción positiva
(Fletcher et al., 2008; Samdal et al., 2000; Shekhtmeyster et al., 2011), presentan
la adolescencia y edad adulta (Miller y Plant, 1999; Currie et al., 2012). En esa línea,
estudio y las aspiraciones futuras del alumnado como factores protectores frente al
Chaney, y Chaney et al, 2011; Henry, Swaim, y Slater, 2005). Estos hallazgos sugieren
que el sistema educativo y los modelos sociales son entornos promotores de salud y
2009; Mota et al., 2013) o la toma de decisiones (Carbia et al., 2017). Estos aspectos
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
(Macleod et al., 2004; Resnick et al., 1997). Según la última encuesta domiciliaria sobre
años, quienes restringen los alimentos de alto contenido calóricos para compensar el
prevalencia de este patrón obtenida en nuestro estudio con una muestra de estudiantes
conducta de atracón o binge drinking (r=.75). Los partipantes que redujeron la ingesta
de alimentos calóricos, presentaron 2.5 (IC 95% 1.46-4.27) veces más probabilidades
resultados son consistentes con los hallazgos obtenidos en varios estudios previos
146
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
alimentos calóricos previo al consumo de alcohol. Los participantes que realizaron estas
evitar la ganancia de peso y cerca del 10%, para alcanzar más rápidamente los efectos
caracterizados por ser uno de los grupos de alimentos con más alto contenido calórico.
significativas entre grupos. Los resultados más llamativos de nuestro estudio derivan de
estudio, la existencia de este fenómeno sigue siendo significativa, incluso, entre los
profesionales de la nutrición, más conscientes de los riesgos que implica para la salud
intencional del grupo de alimentos que más restringen por su alto contenido calórico
“dulces comerciales”. Por lo tanto y a pesar de que existen muy pocos resultados hasta
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Como hemos constatado a lo largo del presente trabajo, los delincuentes que
máxima seguridad, son consistentes con los hallazgos internacionales. Más del 50% de
lesiones son explicadas por un pequeño grupo de individuos con una larga trayectoria
más tempranamente y de manera más progresiva (Crocker et al., 2005; Fulwiler &
Ruthazer, 1999; Mueser, Crocker, Frisman, Drake, Covell, & Essock, 2006). La edad de
(Fergusson, Boden y Horwood, 2015). Cuanto menor es la edad de inicio del primer
estable y cronificada (Loeber y Farrington, 2001; Catena y Redondo, 2013). Entre los
delincuentes persistentes que han tenido un contacto con el sistema de justicia penal,
Conducta (CD) que emergen en la infancia, antes de los 15 años de edad. En muestras
clínicas de pacientes con Esquizofrenia atendidos por los Servicios de Salud Mental
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
máxima seguridad (Hodgins, Cree, Alderton, y Mak, 2008). Los resultados obtenidos en
diversos estudios hasta la fecha sugieren que los individuos con estos diagnósticos
Földes, Topitz, Fliedl, & Knecht, 1992; Tengström, Hodgins, & Kullgren, 2001), tienen un
fracaso académico y abandono escolar (Hodgins et al., 2005), cuentan con mayores
mental (Hodgins et al., 2005; Tengström et al., 2004). Sin embargo, y a pesar de estos
de nuestros estudios, muestran claramente que estos individuos pueden ser fácilmente
Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997 y la PCL:SV (The Psychopathy Checklist:
Screening Version; Hart, Cox, & Hare, 1995, específicamente diseñados para estas
poblaciones.
Conducta en la Infancia (CD) (DSM-IV 4th edition; APA, 1994). Un tercio de los
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Jackson, Hulert, & McGorry, 2008; Morgan y Fisher, 2006; Read, Vanos, Morrison, y
Loeber, Loeber, Homish, & Wei, 2001; Widom, 1989). Nuestros resultados también
demuestran que una mayor proporción de los individuos con SMI+CD cuenta con
Estos resultados son consistente con los hallazgos obtenidos en investigaciones previas
(Fazel, Langstrom, Hjern, Grann, & Lichtenstein, 2009; Hodgins, 2008), confirmando la
genética (Andreasen, 2010; Brown, 2011). Consistente con nuestras hipótesis, los
hallazgos tienen importantes implicaciones clínicas para los Servicios de Salud Mental y
Freeman, 1991), una vez que los síntomas clínicos se han reducido, es necesario
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
estos pacientes: los fármacos para estabilizar el curso de la enfermedad y evitar las
prevenir las recaídas, resolver problemas, asumir la existencia del trastorno, manejar
Soria, Clarke, Dean, & Fahy, 2011). Por tanto, estos resultados sugieren la necesidad
riesgo. Sin embargo y dado que tales intervenciones implican elevados costes
económicos para los Servicios de Salud Mental, resulta esencial identificar a los
hasta la fecha en diferentes países (Douglas et al., 2014), en España no han sido
empíricamente validados entre los delincuentes que cometen los delitos más graves y
máxima seguridad. En este estudio, 107 delincuentes con Esquizofrenia y otras Psicosis
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
consumado o tentativa, el 5.6% por delitos de lesiones graves, el 4.7% por delitos
sexuales, el 4.7% por robo con violencia y el 20.5% por otro tipos de delitos violentos
informes del centro y los datos recogidos por el personal funcionario, quienes
inicio del estudio con niveles de riesgo alto (n=22; 66.7%) o moderado (n=7; 30.4%). El
precisión moderados, con valores del Area Bajo la Curva (AUC) entre .73 y .82 para el
HCR-20 y entre .65 y .78 para la PCL:SV. La inclusion de los niveles de riesgo de
del HCR-20 sobre las puntuaciones numéricas con una tasa de aciertos del 83%.
individuos que cometieron agresiones físicas y al 80% de los que cometieron agresiones
verbales. Los resultados obtenidos en nuestro estudio son consistentes con los
características similares (De Vogel & De Ruiter, 2006; Douglas et al., 2003; Douglas et
al., 1999). Estos estudios confirman que el HCR-20 muestra índices de sensibilidad y
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
PCL:SV no fue diseñada para tal propósito, es capaz identificar a los individuos de alto
(Singh et al., 2014). La dificultad que implica para los profesionales integrar este tipo de
Canadá, EE.UU, Reino Unido o Alemania, donde la predicción del riesgo de violencia es
un área de estudio consolidada indica, que cuando los profesionales reciben formación
dificultad y las perciben de gran utilidad para respaldar sus decisiones judiciales
de variables con gran poder predictivo como la historia de conducta pasada, los
Falkheim, Holmqvist y Sandell, 2001). Por tanto, estos resultados ponen en evidencia la
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
hasta la fecha han demostrado que el riesgo de suicidio entre los individuos con estos
número de falsos positivos (Ishii, Hashimoto, Ukai, Kakutani, Sasaki, & Saito, 2014).
una adecuada capacidad predictiva para discriminar a pacientes de alto riesgo con
predictiva sólo ha sido analizada en un estudio con una muestra anglosajona. Por lo
Psicosis que formaban parte de una investigación más amplia sobre alteraciones
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predecir estas conductas con un tamaño del efecto largo, discriminando acertadamente
al 81-85% de los pacientes que cometió estos incidentes. Los participantes que
Monahan, 1998). Las madres que conviven con hijos esquizofrénicos que además
abusan de drogas y alcohol son las personas más propensas a convertirse en víctimas
seno del hogar, en hijos cuya red social es reducida, dependen económicamente de sus
con sus cuidadores cercanos, la variable que explicaría los crímenes violentos
cometidos por estos pacientes (Taylor, Leese, Butwell, Daly, y Larking, 1998).
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causalidad debido a la naturaleza del diseño de estudio utilizado. Este tipo de diseño
problemático de alcohol a lo largo del tiempo. Futuros estudios deberían utilizar diseños
obtener resultados representativos del rol que ejerce la relación parental y el grupo de
Doctoral constituyen una síntesis de los hallazgos obtenidos en una amplia encuesta
obtenidos en Alicante con respecto a la encuesta estatal sobre uso de drogas. Nuestros
resultados son consistentes con los datos obtenidos a nivel nacional. Los resultados
file:///C:/Users/USUARIO/Downloads/encuesta-consumo-drogas-2015.pdf
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fenómeno. Futuros estudios deberían analizar este fenómeno emergente utilizando una
cuanto a los diagnósticos clínicos y la gravedad de los crímenes violentos que motivaron
Tengström, 2000; Hodgins & Riaz, 2011; Tengström et al., 2006). Tengström et al.,
(2006), en una investigación longitudinal realizada con una cohorte de 216 pacientes
31% de los actos violentos, los pacientes con Trastornos de la Personalidad el 25%,
mientras el grupo con Retraso Mental explicó el 44% de todos los actos de agresión
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nuestro estudio formaban parte del Módulo de Educación y Respeto (MER) del centro
patologías más severas pero con un funcionamiento social mejor preservado. El ingreso
participación más activa de los pacientes en la vida del módulo para la consecución de
precisión para predecir estas conductas en la comunidad, tras el alta hospitalaria o el fin
Strand, 2000; Daffern, y Howells, 2007; De Vogel & de Ruiter, 2006; Douglas, Ogloff, &
Hart, 2003; Douglas, Ogloff, Nicholls, y Grant, 1999), sin embargo es necesario que
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Esquizofrenia ha sido descrita recientemente como uno de los Trastornos Mentales más
Dickinson, Ramsey, and Gold, 2007; Palmer, Dawes, y Heaton, 2009). Sin embargo,
gran parte de los estudios que analizan los correlatos de la violencia y el riesgo de
y los resultados obtenidos hasta la fecha son inconsistentes (Weiss, 2012). Comparando
criminal.
Las dos áreas cerebrales que han recibido mayor apoyo empírico en estudios
dorsolateral) (Barkataki et al., 2005; Yang, Raine, Han, Schug, Toga y Nart, 2010). Las
159
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
permanecen estables a lo largo del tiempo (Martínez-Aran et al., 2002). Estos hallazgos
Coda, Cobia y Rubin, 2012, Yang, Raine, Han, Schug, Toga, y Narr, 2010).
neuroimagen. La mayor parte de los trabajos publicados hasta la fecha han sido
sobre el tema con tamaños muestrales pequeños que no permiten efectuar inferencias
trabajos realizados en Estados Unidos por Foster, Hillbrand y Silverstein (1993) con 23
demostró, que los sujetos que manifestaron elevados niveles de agresión durante la
160
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
(Hooper Visual Organizational Test, HVOT), fluidez verbal (Verbal Fluency Test, FAS) y
flexibilidad cognitiva (Trail Making Test A-B, Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, WCST). Los
resultados informaron de elevados niveles de rigidez cognitiva en los dos grupos. Sin
habilidad para generar nuevas palabras (FAS), los delincuentes internados en prisión
que contaban con una historia de violencia, 13 pacientes con Esquizofrenia sin
Barkataki et al., (2005), encontraron que los pacientes violentos con Esquizofrenia
de manifestar actos de violencia de tipo homicida, debido al efecto que ejercen ciertas
estudios por el contrario no han logrado establecer una relación entre estas variables
161
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
(Lafayette, Frankle, Pollock, Dyer, y Goff, 2003; Krakowski y Czobor, 1997; Silver,
Goodman, Knoll, Isakov, y Modai 2005; Wong, Lumsden, Fenton y Fenwick, 1998).
Las diferencias halladas entre los diferentes estudios reflejan importantes limitaciones
2008).
la línea base en las variables: sexo, nivel educativo, edad y tratamiento farmacológico
162
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
verbal y planificación. Una hipótesis que podría explicar estos hallazgos es que las
puntuaciones más elevadas en psicopatía que caracteriza a este subgrupo podría ser un
suicida.
están comenzando a ser entendidos, aún quedan muchas cuestiones por abordar. Los
estudios conducidos hasta la fecha han prestado una escasa atención al papel que
evidencia que demuestra que la violencia impulsiva está precedida por altos niveles de
han tenido contacto con el sistema de justicia penal y han sido declarados inimputables
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Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
partir del cual, la predicción de la violencia difícilmente puede ser mejorada (Coid et al.,
2011). Sin embargo, estos instrumentos no han tenido en cuenta la utilidad clínica de la
164
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
165
Capítulo 9: Discusión Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
Executive
functioning
TMT-B 132.00 64.05 144.60 67.85 -.634 .529 0.19
FAS 31.91 10.49 36.19 11.35 -1.304 .199 0.40
STROOP-I 87.63 24.43 71.18 20.28 2.329 .024 -0.71
WCST-Cat 4.33 1.36 3.94 1.00 1.034 .307 -0.31
WCST-PersE 22.24 6.92 28.56 5.56 -3.182 .003 0.97
Zoo-Map1 4.00 1.20 4.25 1.18 -.687 .495 0.21
Zoo-Map2 6.12 .74 6.13 .89 -.016 .987 0.00
KBIT: Kauffman & Kauffman Brief Intelligence Test. ATENCIÓN. TMT: Trail Making Test. SDMT-W: Symbol Digit Modalities
Test – Written. SDMT-O: Symbol Digit Modalities Test – Oral. STROOP-W: Stroop test – Words. STROOP-C: Stroop test –
Colors. STROOP-I: Stroop test – Interference. LM: Logical Memory. L&N: Letters and Numbers test. FAS: phonetic fluency
test. WCST-Cat: Wisconsin Card sorting Test – Categories completed. WCST-PersE: Wisconsin Card sorting Test –
Perseverative errors. Zoo: Zoo Map test.
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Capítulo 10: Conclusiones
167
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Capítulo 10: Conclusiones Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
10.1 Conclusiones
la población adolescente:
proporcionado por la ingesta abusiva de alcohol, logrando alcanzar así los efectos de
5. Los delincuentes con Esquizofrenia que cometieron su primer delito a una edad
temprana mostraron delitos más graves y violentos y desarrollaron una carrera criminal
más persistente.
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Capítulo 10: Conclusiones Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
violenta institucional con índices de precisión moderados, con valores del Area Bajo la
Curva (AUC) entre .73 y .82 para el HCR-20 y entre .65 y .78 para la PCL:SV.
7. La versión española del Suicide Risk Assessment Measure demostró una adecuada
agresión.
8. Más del 80% de los comportamientos suicidas cometidos por los pacientes con
Esquizofrenia son explicados por un pequeño grupo de individuos con una trayectoria
170
Chapter 10: Conclusions Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
10.2 Conclusions
failure, friends’ alcohol consumption, number of going out at night and the hour at
return home.
foods to compensate the calories provided by abusive alcohol intake, achieving the
5. Offenders with Schizophrenia committing their first crime at an early age showed
more severe and violent crimes and developed a more persistent criminal career.
6. The HCR-20 and PCL:SV risk assessment tools were able to predict institutional
violent behaviors with a moderate effect size, showing areas under the ROC curve
(AUC) ranging between .73 and .82 for HCR-20 and between .65 and .78 for PCL: SV.
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Chapter 10: Conclusions Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo
7. The Spanish version of the Suicide Risk Assessment Measure (S-RAMM) showed
good predictive ability for predicting suicide behaviors with AUC values ranging
between .83 to .85%. Patients scoring above the mean on the SRAMM (>20-point cut-
off) and HCR-20 (>21-point cut-off) had a five times increased risk of suicide (OR =
5.15, 95% CI = 2.75-9.80) and sevenfold risk of reoffending (OR= 7.04, 95% CI=2.1-
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