Mn+1 = aMn
If we suppose that initially there are M0 cells, how big will be the population
after n generations?
Mn+1 = aMn
Mn+1 − aMn = 0
Cλn+1 − aCλn = 0
Cλn (λ − a) = 0
λ=a
1
2 Propagation of annual plants
The annual plants leave their seeds on the end of summer. The flowering plants
will die, leaving their progeny in form of dormant seeds that must survive the
winter to give rise to the new generation. On the following spring a fraction
of this seeds germinates giving rise to the new generation. Some seeds might
remain dormant for one year or more before reviving. Others will just die due
to predation, disease or weather. In order for plants survive as a species, they
must generate a sufficiently large of population from year to year.
Consider that the seeds are produced at the end of their growth season on
August, and then they die. A fraction of these seeds survives the winter, and
some germinate on the beginning of the season on May, giving rise to new gen-
eration of plants. The germination fraction depends on the age of the seeds.
We consider that the seeds more than two-years-old are no longer viable.
Parameters
• γ: number of seeds per year on August;
• α: fraction of one-year-old seeds that germinates in May;
• β: fraction of two-years-old seeds that germinates in May;
• σ: fraction of seeds that survives a given winter.
We are going to at first attempt formulate the model using the following
variables:
• pn :number of plants in generation n;
• Sn1 :number of one-year-old seeds in April (before germination);
• Sn2 :number of two-years-old seeds in April (before germination);
• S̄n1 :number of one-year-old seeds left in May (after some have germinated);
• S̄n2 :num. of two-years-old seeds left in May (after some have germinated);
• Sn0 :number of new seeds produced in August.
Equations
In May, a fraction α of one-year-old and β of two-years-old seeds produce the
plants, thus:
pn = αSn1 + βSn2 (1)
The seed bank is reduced due to this germination, so the seeds left are:
2
Over the winter the seed bank changes by mortality and aging. Seeds that
are new in generation n will be old on the generation n + 1:
1
Sn+1 = σSn0 (5)
2
Sn+1 = σ S̄n1 (6)
Now substituting in (9) the relations (7) and (8), and considering the equation
(7), we get the linear coupled system of two equations:
pn+1 = ασγpn + βσ(1 − α)Sn1
1 (10)
Sn+1 = σγpn
Note that we can simplify the system of two equations by substituting the seed
equation into the plants one, and we get a single linear difference equation of
second order :
xn + bxn−1 + cxn−2 = 0
P (λ) = λ2 + bλ + c = 0
3
• if λ1 , λ2 are complex: λ1 = a + bi and λ1 = a − bi and xn = C1 λn1 + C2 λn2 .
On the complex roots case, we can write:
xn = rn (A cos(θn) + B sin(θn))
√
with A = C1 + C2 , B = C1 − C2 and rn = a2 + b2 .
3 An insect population
Insects have generally more than one stage in their life cycle from progeny to
maturity. As an example, consider the poplar gall aphid. The adult female
aphids produce the galls. All progeny of a single aphid is contained on one gall
on the leaves on poplars. Some fraction of it will survive until adulthood. For
modeling their population, let’s consider the following parameters and variables:
• an : number of adults female aphids in the n-th generation;
• pn : number of progeny in the n-th generation;
• m: fractional mortality of the young aphids;
• f : number of progeny per female aphid;
• r: ratio of female to total adults aphids.
The model that describes number of insects (female) and progeny is given by:
pn+1 = f an
an+1 = r(1 − m)f an
Writing the system as Sn+1 = ASn We can transform this system into a second
order difference equation, depending on only one variable:
where tr(A) is the trace of the matrix A, det(A) its determinant. Now we can
we find it’s solution using the same approach studied before. We want to find
the roots of the polynomial function for λ which is given by:
4
4 Exercises
It is encouraged to do this activity in groups of at maximum three people. It is
also fine if you want to do it alone.
1) Consider the Model 1 (cell populations).
a) Calculate the constant C considering the initial populations of cells M0 .
b) Make a Matlab routine to obtain the number of cells over the generations
using the difference equation. You can use N = 20 generations or any other
value. Test what happens for a = 1, |a| > 1 and |a| < 1. Does negative values
for a make sense biologically?
c) If we consider the steady-state (when the cells number doesn’t change along
generations), what value for a we would have?
References
1 Edelstein-Keshet, L. Mathematical Models in Biology, SIAM, 2005.