History of Urbanization

The Sumerian city of Eridu marks the dawn of

urbanization in 3700 BC, which trickles around
Mesopotamia, Iran, India and China before
eventually coming west to the Mediterranean. The
earliest cities from China to Mesoamerica can all be
found in a similar latitudinal belt, suggesting a
possible link between early phases of urbanization
Ruins of Palmyra and climate.
Many more urban centers sprang up around the world thereafter but, as late as 1800, only 3%
of the world’s population lived in cities.

Industrial Revolution
Industrial Revolution was a period in which fundamental changes occurred in agriculture,
textile and metal manufacture, transportation, economic policies and the social structure in
England. This period is appropriately labeled “revolution,” for it thoroughly destroyed the
old manner of doing things; yet the term is simultaneously inappropriate, for it connotes
abrupt change. The changes that occurred during this period (1760-1850), in fact, occurred
gradually.

Industrial revolution started in England, but it spread rapidly to other parts of Europe. United
states and Australia were the next to be industrialized. Industrialization of East Asian and
some Latin American countries occurred between 1950-2000. Industrialization is ongoing in
rest of Asia and Africa.
Industrialization and Urbanization
Industrialization leads to urbanization by creating economic growth and job opportunities that
draw people to cities. The urbanization process typically begins when a factory or multiple
factories are established within a region, thus creating a high demand for factory labor. Other
businesses such as building manufacturers, retailers and service providers then follow the
factories in order to meet the product demands of the workers. This creates even more jobs and
demands for housing, thus establishing an urban area.

Urbanization generally occurs near large water bodies. This was to meet the water and food
transportation needs of large populations. Large bodies of water are needed to sustain
industries both as process water and for the transportation of goods. This is partially why 75%
of the world’s largest urban areas are in coastal regions.

As industrialization creates economic growth, the demand for the improved education and
public works agencies that are characteristic of urban areas increases. This demand occurs
because businesses looking for new technology to increase productivity require an educated
workforce, and pleasant living conditions attract skilled workers to the area.

Post-Industrial Urbanism
Once an area is industrialized and urbanized, the process of urbanization evolves and often
overshadows the original industries. Gradually, an urban area may become a hub for trading,
financial services, other hi-tech service industries, education, tourism, etc. Thus an urban area
may rediscover its economy multiple times over its lifetime and continue to remain a magnet
of immigration.
Post-Industrial Urbanism…Contd
Post-industrial urbanism is due to the economic transitions which result in an urban area
transforming from one that primarily provides goods to one that primarily provides services.
In other words, the service sector, made up of people such as nurses, teachers, researchers,
social workers, and lawyers, among others, accounts for more of the economic growth and
wealth than the manufacturing sector, which is made up of people such as construction
workers, textile mill workers, food manufacturers, and production workers. The economic
transformation associated with a post-industrial urbanism subsequently transforms society as
a whole.
Urban population growth took off from Trends in Urban Population
1800 due to the industrial revolution. USA
Urbanization in developed countries up to
1950 due to industries, while it is because of
service industries after that. In developing
countries post-industrial and industrial
urbanization often proceeds simultaneously.
World Urban Population

India
 World Urban Population

India
Future Trends in Urbanization
In 1950, urban population accounted for
only 30% of the global population. A
hundred years later – in 2050 – urban
populations is projected to account for
70%. Driven by the desire for better jobs,
better living conditions, education,
medical care and culture, this new
migration is one of the most significant
shifts in human habitation ever witnessed.
One of the results of this is a change in
the sources of economic prosperity, with
60% of the world’s GDP now generated
by roughly 600 cities.

The fastest urban growth rates are in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia.
If we just look at urban conglomerations (metropolitan areas with over 1 million
inhabitants), by 2020 China is projected to have 121 such areas – followed by India
with 58. In the meantime, new megacities of 10 million or more inhabitants have been
springing up throughout the emerging economies, such as Shanghai, Sao Paulo,
Istanbul, and Lagos.
The future of Human Civilization is in the urban “Built Environments”. The world
population will stabilize somewhere between 10-11 billion. 85% of this population
will live in urban settlements. The challenge is to design urban “Built Environments”
for this purpose. These “Built Environments” must be constructed in relatively
compact spaces, i.e., not more than 5 % of the available land area of the earth.
Ecological Impacts of Urbanization
Nearly all ancient urban societies engaged in deforestation, often with
disastrous consequences for soils and the water table. In temperate
latitudes forests were cut down for firewood and construction
materials…In tropical forest settings, forests were cleared for
agricultural production. Lack of natural resources in the surrounding
area became a problem and this was one reason why most ancient
urban centers ultimately had to be abandoned.

Urbanization represents a more comprehensive attempt by human

beings to permanently alter ecosystems and create artificial
ecosystems or “Built Environments” for Human beings alone. The
entire existing ecosystem of an urban area is completely destroyed by
removing all native plants and animals and the area is colonized by
humans. Some selected plants and animals may be later be selectively
nurtured in an urban area for the sole benefit of human beings.
• Most natural resources, like water and other goods required
for the sustenance of the urban “Built Environment” are
imported from other “Built Environments” and natural
ecosystems. Most of the waste material generated in urban
“Built Environments” are dumped into surrounding natural
ecosystems for decomposition and recycling by natural
processes.

• Ancient societies were not very good at maintaining urban

“Built Environments”. Thus the cycle of rise and fall of
ancient towns is seen repeatedly in many cultures around the
world. The urban population remained very small through
agricultural revolution and many thousands years thereafter.
The situation only began to change with the industrial
revolution. Currently, most people in the world live in urban
areas and this trend will only intensify in the future.
 Natural Resources, Goods and Services………Built Environments

Natural Ecosystems get inputs of natural resources from within, which are
largely responsible for its functioning.

“Built Environments” also require constant inputs of natural resources. In

addition “Built Environments” also require input of goods and services for
their continued sustenance. These Natural Resources, goods and services must
be, a) available within the “Built Environment” itself, b) imported from
another “Built Environment”, c) imported from a natural ecosystem.

No “Built Environment” is self sufficient in Natural Resources and Goods.

These must be imported, at least partially. Natural resources include raw
materials for industries, raw materials for energy and water. Goods include
food, consumer and industrial goods and energy. Many “Built Environments”
are self sufficient in services, through with the advent of IT, many services can
also be imported.
• All “Built Environments” export Goods and nowadays,
increasingly Services, to other “Built Environments”. This
consumption of Natural Resources, Good and Services,
ensures the sustenanance of “Built Environment” , including
the perpetuation of human life and human economic activity.

• “Built Environments” are often inefficient in consumption of

Natural Resources and Goods. This implies formation of large
amount of waste material. Unlike in natural ecosystems,
systems for full recycling of wastes is not present in “Built
Environments”. Since accumulation of waste leads to
pollution, the tendency is to export the waste to other “Built
Environments” or Natural Ecosystems.
World and Indian Population Dynamics

India will be the most

populous country in the
world some time
between 2020 – 2030.
However, the Indian
population is expected
to stabilize by 2050 to
~ 1.6 billion.
Fertility Rates Vary Across India…..some States are already below Replacement Level
Population Growth Thomas Robert Malthus was the first economist to
propose a systematic theory of population growth.
In 1779, Thomas Malthus wrote:
……Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful
resource of nature. The power of population is so
superior to the power of the earth to produce
subsistence for man, that premature death must in
human populations grow some shape or other visit the human race…..
exponentially while food production — Thomas Malthus, 1798. An Essay on the
grows at an arithmetic rate This Principle of Population. Chapter VII, p61
scenario predicted a future when
humans would have no resources to
survive on.

Alternatively, the population approaches

population could pre- the limits of the food
Population exceeds food supply and empt the food shortages supply, the food supply
is kept in check by war, famine, or and so slow their increases as new
disease. It then drops below the population growth technology improves
food supply. As the population keeping it within the yields.
recovers, so the cycle continues. limits of the food supply.
The Logistic Population Growth Curve
If r and K are taken as constants, and
applying the initial condition, at, t = 0,
N(t) = No
K.N o .exp(r.t)
N(t) =
K + N o .[ exp(r.t) − 1]
However in the equation above,
The value of K is unknown.
Also for humans, r is not really constant, it
is a function of time
Hence the Logistic Population Growth
curve is quite useless in predicting the
evolution of human population.
A logistic growth curve is an S-shaped
(sigmoidal) curve that can be used to model
populations that increase gradually at first,
more rapidly in the middle growth period, and
slowly at the end, leveling off at a maximum
value after some period of time
dN(t)  K − N(t) 
= r.N(t).  
dt  K 
t = Time, which is the independent variable
Population = N (t) varies as a function of time
r = Net intrinsic specific growth rate, (i.e.,
birth – death)/unit time/unit population
(intrinsic means in the absence of any growth
retarding factors); K = carrying capacity.
When the population size is very small (i.e.,
when N(t) is close to zero), the term in the
parentheses is approximately one and
population growth is approximately
exponential. When population size is close to
the carrying capacity (i.e., N ≈ K), the term in
parentheses approaches zero and population
growth ceases.
How to Predict Human Population Growth
The specific population growth rate (r) values are known as a function of time (as shown in
figure below), the future values of r may be estimated with some certainty based on the
previous trends.
Knowing present value of N and the
estimated value of r(t) in the immediate
next time period in future, the value of N
at the end of the time period may be
predicted using the equation,
dN(t)
= r(t).N(t)
dt
Note that when r becomes 0, N(t)
becomes constant. If r becomes negative,
N(t) decreases. Also note that this
equation assumes that N(t) stabilizes
before it reaches the carrying capacity, K.
According to this model, stabilization of N(t) is due to the net population growth rate (r)
becoming zero due to prevailing socio-economic reasons and not due to the carrying capacity
having being reached. The stabilized value of N(t) as calculated by the above method is
between 9 and 12 billion.

Still the question remains, whether the stabilized value of N(t) as calculated by this method is
less or more than K, the carrying capacity. A more fundamental question is whether K is a
constant or is a function of technological innovation.
The Major Challenges
Assuming the following facts to be true,
1. Stabilized human population of the earth will be ~12 billion.
2. The lifestyle of this population by 2100 should be such that hunger, health and education are
no longer major issues, i.e., a lifestyle corresponding to ~ US $12000 per capita GNP/year
is available for all.

Key question to be asked is the following,

Do we have the means to sustain a lifestyle commensurate with ~ US $12000 per capita
GNP/year for a population of ~12 billion in perpetuity
a) Can we maintain soil fertility and hence grow enough food. Can we maintain fisheries.
b) Will we have enough water for human use.
c) Can we provide enough energy for human use considering depletion of non-renewable
energy sources.
d) Can we supply enough raw materials for industries considering depletion of non - renewable
sources
e) Can the resource extraction from natural ecosystems be managed such that the natural
ecosystems do not collapse and biodiversity is conserved
f) Will our pollution prevention and control mechanisms be effective enough to prevent an
human and environmental catastrophe
g) Will our resource reuse and recycling mechanisms be effective enough to ensure that natural
resource (especially for non-renewable resources) availability will not be a problem in future.
h) How will global warming and consequent climate change affect our future.
India Presently…….a rapidly developing country

Population ~1.33 Billion.

Rural population 70%, urban
population 30%.
60 % of the population
depending on agriculture.
17% of the population
depending on manufacturing.
23%% of the population
depending on services. Total
annual GDP is US $ 2.6
trillion per year.

43.5% net sown area; 7% is current fallow 8% urban + industry; 3.5% pasture
22.5% is forest; 15.5% is long-term fallow/wasteland
Urbanization

Per Capita
GDP: 2000 US $
per year
India of Future……..when it is a high income country…say in 2060

Population stabilized at ~1.6 Billion.

Per Capita GDP: US $12,000/year; Total GDP: US $19.2 trillion/year
(second only to China)
Rural population 30%; Urban population 70%

1/2 of the rural population depending directly on agriculture. 1/4th of

the rural population engaged in industry/services. 1/4th of the
population engaged in tourism activities in rural, wilderness areas.

Land under agriculture may decrease but will become more

productive. Wilderness and forest cover shall increase. No. of
villages will decline. More small towns with modern amenities.
• 70% of people living in medium to large towns (100,000 – 1
million population), cities (1-10 million population) and
megacities (> 10 million population). Urban population will be
engaged in service industries and manufacturing. Large number of
small businesses, mostly in the services, high-tech and handicrafts
sector.

• Population will be highly multi-cultural and traditional divisions

on caste and communal lines shall mostly be gone. Hunger,
education and health care no longer serious problems.

• Housing stock will substantially improve, cities will become more

livable, less polluted. Public transport will be plentiful. People
will have cars, but only for weekend and leisure driving, not
commuting.

• Better governance, more transparency, less corruption.

India of Future……..when it is a high income country…say in 2060
Population stabilized at ~1.6 Billion.
Per Capita GDP: US $12,000/year; Total GDP: US $19.2 trillion/year (second only to China)
Rural population 30%; Urban population 70%

1/2 of the rural population depending directly on agriculture. 1/4th of the rural population
engaged in industry/services. 1/4th of the population engaged in tourism activities in rural,
wilderness areas.

Land under agriculture may decrease but will become more productive. Wilderness and forest
cover shall increase. No. of villages will decline. More small towns with modern amenities.

70% of people living in medium to large towns (100,000 – 1 million population), cities (1-10
million population) and megacities (> 10 million population). Urban population will be
engaged in service industries and manufacturing. Large number of small businesses, mostly in
the services, high-tech and handicrafts sector.

Population will be highly multi-cultural and traditional divisions on caste and communal lines
shall mostly be gone. Hunger, education and health care no longer serious problems.

Housing stock will substantially improve, cities will become more livable, less polluted.
Public transport will be plentiful. People will have cars, but only for weekend and leisure
driving, not commuting.

Better governance, more transparency, less corruption.

India and the Global Economy Past and Present

Future
How will India become a High Income Country
Indian agriculture only constitutes 17 percent of the GDP, but 60 percent of the population is
dependent on agriculture. Most of the population depending on agriculture have no other
alternative. These people have to do hard-work for little income. Only way agricultural
incomes can be increased is through improvement in agricultural productivity and though
reduction in agricultural employment.

Basic idea is to train the massive numbers of educated but unskilled youths in urban and rural
India for jobs in the manufacturing and service sector. This is the “Skill India” initiative of
the government. To enable these youths to find gainful employment, the ongoing
Industrialization process in India will be accelerated. India will become a manufacturing hub.
The investment required for this purpose will come both from internal and foreign sources. To
facilitate this process, governance will be strengthened, regulations will be streamlined. The
government calls this the “Make in India” initiative. Manufacturing jobs will also result in
large number of service sector jobs. The traditional strength of India is white collar service
sector (mainly IT and ITES) and associated service employment will also be further enhanced.

This massive re-training and reorientation of youth in the country towards the manufacturing
and service sector is essential for its future prosperity. Sustained growth of the economy at 7
percent per year over the next 30-40 years is necessary for India to become a high income
country.

Note that most manufacturing and service sector jobs over next 30-40 years will be created in
urban areas.
Why can India become a High Income Country
Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in
a population’s age structure in a country, mainly when the share of the working-age
population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and
younger, and 65 and older).

If all the working age population under these circumstances can be provided with gainful
employment, then the per capita income increases rapidly. Thus a country with both
increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a
demographic dividend. However, in order for economic growth to occur the younger
population must have access to quality jobs, quality education, adequate nutrition and health.

Dependency Ratio is the proportion

of working age population (15-64
years) to dependents.

This ratio reaches its peak only once

in a country’s history. This period
lasts for 30-40 years. A country in
this phase can have massive
economic growth and become a high
income country in a generation.
India of Future……..Built Environments
Current Population: 1300 million; Rural: 910 million; Urban: 390 million

In 2060:
Future Population: 1600 million; Rural: 480 million; Urban: 1120 million

Rural population will live in villages, Class III towns (>10,000 population) population and
Class II towns (>50000 population). All Class III and Class II towns will have modern
amenities.

Urban population will live in Class I towns (>100,000 population), in cities (> 1 million
population) and megacities (> 10 million populations)

Number of cities (> 1 million population) currently is 46. This will increase to more than
100. Combined population of these cities shall be ~ 500 million.

There will be 10 megacities, each with population > 10 million. Combined population of
these cities shall be ~150 million.

There will be more than 1000 Class I towns (population > 100,000), with a combined
population of 450 million.
Built Environment
Built environment refers to the manmade surroundings or “Artificial Ecosystem” that provides
the setting for human activity, including work and leisure.
What is Infrastructure
"Hard" infrastructure refers to the
large physical networks necessary for
the functioning of a modern “Built
Environments”.

“Soft" infrastructure refers to

establishments/institutions which are
required to maintain high level of
economic, educational, entertainment,
leisure, cultural and social activities in
a “Built Environment”. It also
includes institutions required for
health and emergency service and law
and order.

Urban or municipal infrastructure refers to hard infrastructure systems generally owned and
operated by municipalities, such as streets, water distribution, and sewers. It may also
include some of the facilities associated with soft infrastructure, such as parks, public pools,
schools, hospitals and libraries.
 Requirements for Modern Living in a “Built Environment”
Household Physical Infrastructure
1. Good House Household Comforts and Luxury
Surrounding Soft Infrastructure 1. Heating
2. Water Supply
3. Electricity Supply 1. Job opportunities 2. Cooling
4. Cooking Gas Supply 2. Educational institutions 3. Hot water supply
5. Garbage Collection 3. Law and Order 4. Household gadgets
6. Sewage Disposal 4. Emergency Services 5. Home entertainment system
7. Mobile Network 5. Hospitals 6. Furniture
8. Cable TV 6. Public Amenities
9.Broadband internet 7. Household furnishings
7. High End Shopping 8. Kitchen utensils and gadgets
8. Fitness, Sport and Entertainment 9. Clothes
9. Literary and Cultural Activities 10. Means of private transport
10. Restaurants 11. Food and Drink
11. Bars and Clubs 12. Household help
Surrounding Physical Infrastructure 13. Vacation and Travel
1. Parks/Open spaces 14. Valuable possessions
2. Street Lighting Above requirements
3. Markets are echoed by most
4. Roads Intangibles
urban dwellers and 1. Good social life
5. Public Transport
6. Traffic System almost all youths, 2. Satisfaction at Work
7. Cleanliness and Sanitation both urban and 3. Good family Life
8. Drainage Network rural 4. Spiritual satisfaction
9. Bus, Railway and Air network 5. Hobbies and Interests
10. Clean Air
Smart Cities Initiative……What is it??
The objective is to promote cities that provide core infrastructure and give a decent quality
of life to its citizens, a clean and sustainable environment and application of ‘Smart’
Solutions’, 1). adequate water supply, 2). assured electricity supply, 3). sanitation,
including solid waste management, 4). efficient urban mobility and public transport, 5).
affordable housing, especially for the poor, 6). robust IT connectivity and digitalization, 7).
good governance, especially e-Governance and citizen participation, 9). sustainable
environment, 10). safety and security of citizens, particularly women, children and the
elderly, and 11). health and education.

The purpose of the Smart Cities Mission is to drive economic growth and improve the
quality of life of people by enabling local area development and harnessing technology,
especially technology that leads to smart outcomes.

Area-based development will transform existing areas (retrofit and redevelop), including
slums, into better planned ones, thereby improving liveability of the whole City. New areas
(“Green Field”) will be developed around cities in order to accommodate the expanding
population in urban areas.

Application of Smart Solutions will enable cities to use technology, information and data to
improve infrastructure and services.

Comprehensive development in this way will improve quality of life, create employment
and enhance incomes for all, especially the poor and the disadvantaged, leading to inclusive
Cities.
National “Rurban” Mission
The vision is to "develop a cluster of villages that preserve and nurture the essence of rural
community life with focus on equity, and inclusiveness, without compromising with the
facilities perceived to be essentially urban in nature, thus creating a cluster of Rurban
villages".

Organized development of the clusters, the areas would be well delineated and would be duly
notified as planning areas under the relevant Planning Acts of the States. The mission aims to
create 300 such 'Rurban Clusters' over the next 3 years, across the country with about 100
Rurban clusters approved every year. The aim is to stimulate local economic development,
enhance basic services, and create well planned Rurban clusters.

A ‘Rurban cluster’, would be a cluster of geographically contiguous villages with a

population of about 25000 to 50000 in plain and coastal areas and with a population of 5000
to 15000 in desert, hilly or tribal areas.

The following components are envisaged as desirable in each cluster: (i) Skill development
training linked to economic activities (ii) Agro Processing, Agri Services, Storage and
Warehousing. (iii) Fully equipped mobile health unit. (iv) Upgrading school/ higher
education facilities. (v) Sanitation (vi) Provision of piped water supply. (vii) Solid and liquid
waste management. (viii) Village streets and drains. (ix) Street lights (x) Inter-village road
connectivity. (xi) Public transport. (xii) LPG gas connections (xiii) Digital literacy. (xiv)
Citizen Service Centers (CSC) - for electronic delivery of citizen centric services/e-gram
connectivity.