BRAZA Y SAZON

Año Mes Demanda

Enero 315
Febrero 235 Demanda
Marzo 286 600
Abril 358 500
Mayo 423 400

Demanda (unidades)
Junio 294 300
2016
Julio 396 200
Agosto 248 100
Septiembre 268 0
Octubre 368 ro ro zo ri l ay
o
ni
o lio to
En
e
b re ar Ab M Ju Ju os
Noviembre 406 Fe M Ag
Diciembre 489 S

Enero 276 Meses

Febrero 286
Marzo 296
Abril 345
Mayo 327
Junio 356
2017
Julio 293
Agosto 278
Septiembre 334
Octubre 294
Noviembre 386
Diciembre 418
SAZON

Demanda

2017
2016

rzo ri l ay
o
ni
o lio to br
e
br
e
br
e
br
e
Ab M Ju Ju os tu m m
Ag em c e e
pti O vi ci
Se No Di

Meses
Año Mes Demanda

Enero 315
Febrero 235
Marzo 286
Abril 358
Mayo 423 550
Junio 294 500
2016 450
Julio 396
400
Agosto 248 350

Demanda (uniddes)
Septiembre 268 300 f(x) = 1.2926086957x +
R² = 0.0207957368
Octubre 368 250
Noviembre 406 200
150
Diciembre 489
100
Enero 276 50
Febrero 286 o o o il o o o
n e r re r a rz b r ay u n i u l i
E eb M A M J J
Marzo 296 F
Abril 345
Mayo 327
Junio 356
2017
Julio 293
Agosto 278
Septiembre 334
Octubre 294
Noviembre 386
Diciembre 418
 Demanda
550
500
450
400
350
Demanda (uniddes)

300 f(x) = 1.2926086957x + 316.134057971

R² = 0.0207957368
250
200
150
100
50
o o o il o o o o e e e e o o o il o o o o e e e e
n e r re r a rz b r ay u n i u l i o st br u b r b r b r n e r re r a rz b r ay u n i u l i o st br u b r b r b r
E eb M A M J J Ag e m ct e m e m E e b M A M J J Ag e m ct e m e m
F pti O ovi i ci F i
pti O ov D i c
i
Se N D Se N

Meses
Metodo Suavizacion Exponencial Doble
 SOFTWARE MINITAB
Suavizacion Exponencial Doble Metodo Winters Multi
E MINITAB
Metodo Winters Multiplicativo Metodo Winters Aditivo
Metodo Winters Aditivo
 Double Exponential Smoothing

Statistical Summary

Alpha, Beta RMSE RMSE

0,00, 0,00 64.615 0,60, 0,60 97.061
0,10, 0,10 66.904 0,70, 0,70 103.312
0,20, 0,20 72.031 0,80, 0,80 110.560
0,30, 0,30 77.353 0,90, 0,90 122.905
0,40, 0,40 83.015 1,00, 1,00 146.572
0,50, 0,50 89.966

The analysis was run with alpha = 0,0048, and Beta = 1,0000

Time-Series Analysis Summary

The double exponential smoothing method is used when the data exhibits a trend but no seasonality. This model is not appropriate when used to predict cross-
sectional data. Double exponential smoothing applies single exponential smoothing twice, once to the original data and then to the resulting single exponential-
smoothing data. An alpha weighting parameter is used on the first or single exponential smoothing (SES) while a beta weighting parameter is used on the
second or double exponential smoothing (DES). This approach is useful when the historical data series is not stationary. The software finds the optimal alpha
and beta parameters automatically through an optimization process that minimizes the forecast errors.

The best-fitting test for the moving average forecast uses the root mean squared errors (RMSE). The RMSE calculates the square root of the average squared
deviations of the fitted values versus the actual data points.

Mean Squared Error (MSE) is an absolute error measure that squares the errors (the difference between the actual historical data and the forecast-fitted data
predicted by the model) to keep the positive and negative errors from canceling each other out. This measure also tends to exaggerate large errors by
weighting the large errors more heavily than smaller errors by squaring them, which can help when comparing different time-series models. Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE) is the square root of MSE and is the most popular error measure, also known as the quadratic loss function. RMSE can be defined as the
average of the absolute values of the forecast errors and is highly appropriate when the cost of the forecast errors is proportional to the absolute size of the
forecast error. The RMSE is used as the selection criteria for the best-fitting time-series model.

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is a relative error statistic measured as an average percent error of the historical data points and is most appropriate
when the cost of the forecast error is more closely related to the percentage error than the numerical size of the error. Finally, an associated measure is the
Theil's U statistic, which measures the naivety of the model's forecast. That is, if the Theil's U statistic is less than 1.0, then the forecast method used provides
an estimate that is statistically better than guessing.

Period Actual Forecast Fit Error Measurements

1 315.00 RMSE 64.3000
2 235.00 MSE 4134.4951
3 286.00 314.22 MAD 51.7011
4 358.00 313.56 MAPE 14.89%
5 423.00 313.47 Theil's U 0.7541
6 254.00 314.22
7 396.00 313.86
8 248.00 314.59
9 268.00 314.27
10 368.00 313.83
11 406.00 314.13
12 489.00 315.07
13 276.00 317.24
14 286.00 318.17
15 296.00 318.99
16 345.00 319.75
17 327.00 320.85
18 356.00 321.90
19 293.00 323.25
20 278.00 324.14
21 334.00 324.73
22 294.00 325.63
23 336.00 326.18
24 418.00 326.98
Forecast25 328.61
Forecast26 329.80
Forecast27 330.99
Forecast28 332.19
Forecast29 333.38
Forecast30 334.57
Forecast31 335.76
Forecast32 336.96
Forecast33 338.15
Forecast34 339.34
Forecast35 340.53
Forecast36 341.72
 Holt-Winter's Additive

Summary Statistics

Alpha, Beta, Gamma RMSE Alpha, Beta, Gamma RMSE

0,00, 0,00, 0,00 67.880 0,00, 0,00, 0,00 67.880
0,10, 0,10, 0,10 69.217 0,10, 0,10, 0,10 69.217
0,20, 0,20, 0,20 72.126 0,20, 0,20, 0,20 72.126
0,30, 0,30, 0,30 76.656 0,30, 0,30, 0,30 76.656
0,40, 0,40, 0,40 82.742 0,40, 0,40, 0,40 82.742
0,50, 0,50, 0,50 90.537

The analysis was run with alpha = 0,0196, beta = 1,0000, gamma = 0,1180, and seasonality = 12

Time-Series Analysis Summary

When both seasonality and trend exist, more advanced models are required to decompose the data into their base elements: a base-case level (L) weighted by the alpha
parameter; a trend component (b) weighted by the beta parameter; and a seasonality component (S) weighted by the gamma parameter. Several methods exist but the two most
common are the Holt-Winters' additive seasonality and Holt-Winters' multiplicative seasonality methods. In the Holt-Winter's additive model, the base case level, seasonality, and
trend are added together to obtain the forecast fit.

The best-fitting test for the moving average forecast uses the root mean squared errors (RMSE). The RMSE calculates the square root of the average squared deviations of the
fitted values versus the actual data points.

Mean Squared Error (MSE) is an absolute error measure that squares the errors (the difference between the actual historical data and the forecast-fitted data predicted by the
model) to keep the positive and negative errors from canceling each other out. This measure also tends to exaggerate large errors by weighting the large errors more heavily than
smaller errors by squaring them, which can help when comparing different time-series models. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is the square root of MSE and is the most popular
error measure, also known as the quadratic loss function. RMSE can be defined as the average of the absolute values of the forecast errors and is highly appropriate when the
cost of the forecast errors is proportional to the absolute size of the forecast error. The RMSE is used as the selection criteria for the best-fitting time-series model.

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is a relative error statistic measured as an average percent error of the historical data points and is most appropriate when the cost of the
forecast error is more closely related to the percentage error than the numerical size of the error. Finally, an associated measure is the Theil's U statistic, which measures the
naivety of the model's forecast. That is, if the Theil's U statistic is less than 1.0, then the forecast method used provides an estimate that is statistically better than guessing.

Period Actual Forecast Fit Error Measurements

1 315.00 RMSE 67.5075
2 235.00 MSE 4557.2560
3 286.00 MAD 60.1899
4 358.00 MAPE 18.81%
5 423.00 Theil's U 1.1378
6 254.00
7 396.00
8 248.00
9 268.00
10 368.00
11 406.00
12 489.00
13 276.00 315.00
14 286.00 233.47
15 296.00 285.77
16 345.00 358.43
17 327.00 423.37
18 356.00 250.80
19 293.00 395.23
20 278.00 243.60
21 334.00 263.32
22 294.00 365.14
23 336.00 400.78
24 418.00 480.28
Forecast25 297.09
Forecast26 224.23
Forecast27 266.88
Forecast28 332.69
Forecast29 384.64
Forecast30 235.52
Forecast31 350.06
Forecast32 214.42
Forecast33 235.16
Forecast34 315.30
Forecast35 350.58
Forecast36 430.42
 Holt-Winter's Multiplicative

Summary Statistics

Alpha, Beta, Gamma RMSE Alpha, Beta, Gamma RMSE

0,00, 0,00, 0,00 67.880 0,00, 0,00, 0,00 67.880
0,10, 0,10, 0,10 72.178 0,10, 0,10, 0,10 72.178
0,20, 0,20, 0,20 76.390 0,20, 0,20, 0,20 76.390
0,30, 0,30, 0,30 80.634 0,30, 0,30, 0,30 80.634
0,40, 0,40, 0,40 85.971 0,40, 0,40, 0,40 85.971
0,50, 0,50, 0,50 93.461

The analysis was run with alpha = 0,0001, beta = 0,0001, gamma = 0,1180, and seasonality = 12

Time-Series Analysis Summary

When both seasonality and trend exist, more advanced models are required to decompose the data into their base elements: a base-case level (L) weighted by the alpha
parameter; a trend component (b) weighted by the beta parameter; and a seasonality component (S) weighted by the gamma parameter. Several methods exist but the two most
common are the Holt-Winters' additive seasonality and Holt-Winters' multiplicative seasonality methods. In the Holt-Winter's additive model, the base case level, seasonality, and
trend are added together to obtain the forecast fit.

The best-fitting test for the moving average forecast uses the root mean squared errors (RMSE). The RMSE calculates the square root of the average squared deviations of the
fitted values versus the actual data points.

Mean Squared Error (MSE) is an absolute error measure that squares the errors (the difference between the actual historical data and the forecast-fitted data predicted by the
model) to keep the positive and negative errors from canceling each other out. This measure also tends to exaggerate large errors by weighting the large errors more heavily than
smaller errors by squaring them, which can help when comparing different time-series models. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is the square root of MSE and is the most popular
error measure, also known as the quadratic loss function. RMSE can be defined as the average of the absolute values of the forecast errors and is highly appropriate when the
cost of the forecast errors is proportional to the absolute size of the forecast error. The RMSE is used as the selection criteria for the best-fitting time-series model.

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is a relative error statistic measured as an average percent error of the historical data points and is most appropriate when the cost of the
forecast error is more closely related to the percentage error than the numerical size of the error. Finally, an associated measure is the Theil's U statistic, which measures the
naivety of the model's forecast. That is, if the Theil's U statistic is less than 1.0, then the forecast method used provides an estimate that is statistically better than guessing.

Period Actual Forecast Fit Error Measurements

1 315.00 RMSE 67.8844
2 235.00 MSE 4608.2950
3 286.00 MAD 60.4200
4 358.00 MAPE 18.82%
5 423.00 Theil's U 1.1409
6 254.00
7 396.00
8 248.00
9 268.00
10 368.00
11 406.00
12 489.00
13 276.00 315.00
14 286.00 235.00
15 296.00 286.00
16 345.00 358.00
17 327.00 423.00
18 356.00 254.00
19 293.00 396.01
20 278.00 248.00
21 334.00 268.00
22 294.00 368.01
23 336.00 406.01
24 418.00 489.00
Forecast25 310.39
Forecast26 241.02
Forecast27 287.18
Forecast28 356.46
Forecast29 411.66
Forecast30 266.03
Forecast31 383.84
Forecast32 251.54
Forecast33 275.78
Forecast34 359.26
Forecast35 397.73
Forecast36 480.61
 Minitab

Método Indicador error

Suavización Exponencial doble

Winters Multiplicativo MAPE
Winters Aditivo
 Risk Simulator

Error Measurements
RMSE
MSE
MAD
MAPE
Theil's U

Pronosticos
Forecast25
Forecast26
Forecast27
Forecast28
Forecast29
Forecast30
Forecast31
Forecast32
Forecast33
Forecast34
Forecast35
Forecast36

Mejor herramienta Risk Simulator ya que al compara

el indice de error MAPE es el que mas bajo porcentaj
arroja (en el paper se analizara mas detalladamente)

Herramienta
MiniTab Risk Simulator
20.30%
21.10% 18.82%
21.02% 18.81%
 Risk Simulator

ror Measurements
64.3000
4134.4951
51.7011
14.89%
0.7541

Pronosticos
328.61
329.80
330.99
332.19
333.38
334.57
335.76
336.96
338.15
339.34
340.53
341.72

nta Risk Simulator ya que al comparar

r MAPE es el que mas bajo porcentaje
per se analizara mas detalladamente)
 Año 2017
Mes Dt (unds) nt K
Enero 276 31 1.48387097
Febrero 286 28 1.70238095
Marzo 296 31 1.59139785
Abril 345 30 1.91666667
Mayo 327 31 1.75806452
Junio 356 30 1.97777778
Julio 293 31 1.57526882
Agosto 278 31 1.49462366
Septiembre 334 30 1.85555556
Octubre 294 31 1.58064516
Noviembre 386 30 2.14444444
Diciembre 418 31 2.24731183
1.77733402 K promedio

Número de trabajadores 6
Inventario Inicial 45
ESTRATEGIA CAZA
Mes Demanda (Ft) Ft (aprox) D ajustada nt
25 328.61 329 374 31
26 329.8 330 330 28
27 330.99 331 331 31
28 332.19 332 332 30
29 333.38 333 333 31
30 334.57 335 335 30
31 335.76 336 336 31
32 336.96 337 337 31
33 338.15 338 338 30
34 339.34 339 339 31
35 340.53 341 341 30
36 341.72 342 342 31

ESTRATEGIA FUERZA DE TRABAJO CONSTANTE

Mes Demanda (Ft) Ft (aprox) D ajustada nt

25 328.61 329 329 31
26 329.8 330 330 28
27 330.99 331 331 31
28 332.19 332 332 30
29 333.38 333 333 31
30 334.57 335 335 30
31 335.76 336 336 31
32 336.96 337 337 31
33 338.15 338 338 30
34 339.34 339 339 31
35 340.53 341 341 30
36 341.72 342 342 31
4023 365

Costos Costos Caza

Mantener Inventario $ 15,000 Contratar
Contratar $ 120,000 Despedir
Despedir $ 80,000 Mantener Inv.
Total

Estrategia Costo total Costos Fuerza de trabajo constan

Caza $ 16,320,000 Contratar
Fuerza de trabajo Constante $ 391,320,000 Despedir
Mantener Inv.
Total
 t C D It
6 90
7 1 - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
7 - - 90
1 0 1080

RABAJO CONSTANTE

Pt t C D It
330 6 46
348 7 1 - 64
385 7 - - 118
373 7 - - 159
385 7 - - 211
373 7 - - 249
385 7 - - 298
385 7 - - 346
373 7 - - 381
385 7 - - 427
373 7 - - 459
385 7 - - 502
1 0 3260

Costos Caza
$ 120,000
$ -
$ 16,200,000
$ 16,320,000

os Fuerza de trabajo constante

$ 120,000
$ -
$ 391,200,000
$ 391,320,000
 Costos Fijos
Descripción Salario Total

Cocinera $ 1,200,000
Mesera $ 781,242
Mano de Obra Domiciliario $ 781,242 $ 5,582,484
Hornero $ 1,320,000
Administrador $ 1,500,000
Agua $ 648,000
Luz $ 385,000
Servicios $ 1,603,000
Telefono $ 120,000
Gas $ 450,000
Valeras $ 16,000
Cuadernos $ 2,500
Papeleria Hojas de inv. $ 4,500 $ 31,000
Esferos $ 6,000
Corrector $ 2,000
Escoba $ 7,500
Trapero $ 8,400
Recogedor $ 5,600
Limpia vidrios $ 8,500
Jabon de loza $ 48,000
Aseo $ 194,000
Desengrasante $ 12,000
Esponjas $ 38,000
Fabuloso $ 30,000
Jabón $ 15,000
Guantes $ 21,000
Total Costos Fijos mensuales $ 7,410,484
Total Costos Fijos anuales $ 88,925,808

Costos Fijos Mensual Anual

Mano de Obra $ 5,582,484
Servicios $ 1,603,000
Papeleria $ 31,000
Aseo $ 194,000
Total $ 7,410,484 $ 88,925,808

PUNTO DE EQUILIBRIO
 Producto Precio de Venta Costo Variable Demanda (mensual)

Pollo Asado $ 18,000 $ 4,900 385

Pollo Broaster $ 19,000 $ 4,500 189
Limonada natural $ 2,000 $ 975 20
Colombiana $ 3,500 $ 2,000 35
Manzana $ 3,500 $ 2,000 29
Pepsi $ 3,500 $ 2,000 18
Uva $ 3,500 $ 2,000 12
Seven up $ 3,500 $ 2,000 9
Total

Punto de Equilibrio $ 5,400,361

utilidad $ 548,516
 Comidas
Costo por und
Pollo Asado Cantidad
de producto
Pollo $ 2,200 1
Papa $ 800 1
Adobo $ 1,000 1
$ 4,000

Pollo Broaster
Pollo $ 2,200 1
Harina $ 1,000 media libra
Adobo $ 1,000 1
Huevo $ 350 6
$ 4,550

Bebidas
Limonada natural $ 400 3
Colombiana $ 2,300 1
Manzana $ 2,300 1
Pepsi $ 2,300 1
Uva $ 2,300 1
Seven up $ 2,300 1
$ 11,900

PUNTO DE EQUILIBRIO MULTIPRODUCTO

Ingresos por Ventas Participación en las % Utilidad Bruta %Utilidad * WI
ventas (WI)
$ 6,930,000 63% 72.78% 0.4617955409
$ 3,591,000 33% 76.32% 0.2509270705
$ 40,000 0.37% 51.25% 0.0018770315
$ 122,500 1% 42.86% 0.004807032
$ 101,500 1% 42.86% 0.0039829694
$ 63,000 1% 42.86% 0.0024721879
$ 42,000 0.38% 42.86% 0.0016481253
$ 31,500 0% 42.86% 0.0012360939
$ 10,921,500 100% 0.7287460514
$ 131,058,000 8.7449526164

$ 64,804,331
$ 1,057,170,192
omidas
Unidad Costo Unitario

pollo $ 2,200
lb $ 800
tarro $ 1,000
Total $ 4,000

lo Broaster
pollo $ 2,200
lb $ 2,000 kg
tarro $ 1,000
paquete $ 2,100
Total $ 7,300

Bebidas
und $ 1,200
Lt $ 2,300
Lt $ 2,300
Lt $ 2,300
Lt $ 2,300
Lt $ 2,300
Total $ 12,700
 Comidas Unidades que
deben producir
Pollo Asado 139
Pollo Broaster 71
Limonada natural 5
Colombiana 7
Manzana 6
Pepsi 4
Uva 3
Seven up 2