Anda di halaman 1dari 32

Kedatangan

Month No Real Data Forecasting Error


2009 Jan-09 1 114501
Feb-09 2 107411 114501 7090
Mar-09 3 121479 107411 14068
Apr-09 4 115956 121479 5523
May-09 5 129319 115956 13363
Jun-09 6 134653 129319 5334
Jul-09 7 148178 134653 13525
Aug-09 8 136806 148178 11372
Sep-09 9 139670 136806 2864
Oct-09 10 143150 139670 3480
Nov-09 11 136873 143150 6277
Dec-09 12 152818 136873 15945
2010 Jan-10 13 132155 152818 20663
Feb-10 14 127477 132155 4678
Mar-10 15 142649 127477 15172
Apr-10 16 141773 142649 876
May-10 17 157574 141773 15801
Jun-10 18 157571 157574 3
Jul-10 19 177554 157571 19983
Aug-10 20 146396 177554 31158
Sep-10 21 179583 146396 33187
Oct-10 22 167593 179583 11990
Nov-10 23 37407 167593 130186
Dec-10 24 156173 37407 118766
2011 Jan-11 25 150243 156173 5930
Feb-11 26 139520 150243 10723
Mar-11 27 151458 139520 11938
Apr-11 28 160824 151458 9366
May-11 29 151740 160824 9084
Jun-11 30 170271 151740 18531
Jul-11 31 195637 170271 25366
Aug-11 32 171528 195637 24109
Sep-11 33 187406 171528 15878
Oct-11 34 183795 187406 3611
Nov-11 35 176289 183795 7506
Dec-11 36 187078 176289 10789
2012 Jan-12 37 178559 187078 8519
Feb-12 38 171898 178559 6661
Mar-12 39 183237 171898 11339
Apr-12 40 181726 183237 1511
May-12 41 189947 181726 8221
Jun-12 42 196749 189947 6802
Jul-12 43 193397 196749 3352
Aug-12 44 218784 193397 25387
Sep-12 45 209068 218784 9716
Oct-12 46 219274 209068 10206
Nov-12 47 211927 219274 7347
Dec-12 48 223050 211927 11123
2013 Jan-13 49 198589 223050 24461
Feb-13 50 182511 198589 16078
Mar-13 51 208529 182511 26018
Apr-13 52 200043 208529 8486
May-13 53 234456 200043 34413
Jun-13 54 253073 234456 18617
Jul-13 55 222885 253073 30188
Aug-13 56 272474 222885 49589
Sep-13 57 228472 272474 44002
Oct-13 58 248853 228472 20381
Nov-13 59 232886 248853 15967
Dec-13 60 256342 232886 23456
2014 Jan-14 61 234850 256342 21492
Feb-14 62 173522 234850 61328
Mar-14 63 223934 173522 50412
Apr-14 64 212685 223934 11249
May-14 65 253294 212685 40609
Jun-14 66 269147 253294 15853
Jul-14 67 262692 269147 6455
Aug-14 68 284380 262692 21688
Sep-14 69 246638 284380 37742
Oct-14 70 266738 246638 20100
Nov-14 71 243928 266738 22810
Dec-14 72 281529 243928 37601
2015 Jan-15 73 217414 281529 64115
Feb-15 74 205921 217414 11493
Mar-15 75 217069 205921 11148
Apr-15 76 226265 217069 9196
May-15 77 265060 226265 38795
Jun-15 78 246855 265060 18205
Jul-15 79 295975 246855 49120
Aug-15 80 291203 295975 4772
Sep-15 81 248833 291203 42370
Oct-15 82 264802 248833 15969
Nov-15 83 256759 264802 8043
Dec-15 84 283318 256759 26559

Kedatangan
350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000
250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
Keberangkatan
Month No (X) X2 X3 X4 Real Data (Y) X.Y
2009 Jan-09 1 1 1 1 119611 119611
Feb-09 2 4 8 16 103336 206672
Mar-09 3 9 27 81 122251 366753
Apr-09 4 16 64 256 111615 446460
May-09 5 25 125 625 127048 635240
Jun-09 6 36 216 1296 131410 788460
Jul-09 7 49 343 2401 149407 1045849
Aug-09 8 64 512 4096 133085 1064680
Sep-09 9 81 729 6561 121492 1093428
Oct-09 10 100 1000 10000 148996 1489960
Nov-09 11 121 1331 14641 137930 1517230
Dec-09 12 144 1728 20736 149822 1797864
2010 Jan-10 13 169 2197 28561 140263 1823419
Feb-10 14 196 2744 38416 121388 1699432
Mar-10 15 225 3375 50625 142597 2138955
Apr-10 16 256 4096 65536 141073 2257168
May-10 17 289 4913 83521 154768 2631056
Jun-10 18 324 5832 104976 153089 2755602
Jul-10 19 361 6859 130321 178453 3390607
Aug-10 20 400 8000 160000 140812 2816240
Sep-10 21 441 9261 194481 164159 3447339
Oct-10 22 484 10648 234256 179132 3940904
Nov-10 23 529 12167 279841 40219 925037
Dec-10 24 576 13824 331776 153874 3692976
2011 Jan-11 25 625 15625 390625 170243 4256075
Feb-11 26 676 17576 456976 138674 3605524
Mar-11 27 729 19683 531441 150292 4057884
Apr-11 28 784 21952 614656 158661 4442508
May-11 29 841 24389 707281 150363 4360527
Jun-11 30 900 27000 810000 166532 4995960
Jul-11 31 961 29791 923521 199173 6174363
Aug-11 32 1024 32768 1048576 134551 4305632
Sep-11 33 1089 35937 1185921 193491 6385203
Oct-11 34 1156 39304 1336336 188926 6423484
Nov-11 35 1225 42875 1500625 176338 6171830
Dec-11 36 1296 46656 1679616 183423 6603228
2012 Jan-12 37 1369 50653 1874161 187551 6939387
Feb-12 38 1444 54872 2085136 167761 6374918
Mar-12 39 1521 59319 2313441 179577 7003503
Apr-12 40 1600 64000 2560000 180513 7220520
May-12 41 1681 68921 2825761 188252 7718332
Jun-12 42 1764 74088 3111696 190946 8019732
Jul-12 43 1849 79507 3418801 197417 8488931
Aug-12 44 1936 85184 3748096 190973 8402812
Sep-12 45 2025 91125 4100625 220340 9915300
Oct-12 46 2116 97336 4477456 217846 10020916
Nov-12 47 2209 103823 4879681 217468 10220996
Dec-12 48 2304 110592 5308416 218361 10481328
2013 Jan-13 49 2401 117649 5764801 212526 10413774
Feb-13 50 2500 125000 6250000 178880 8944000
Mar-13 51 2601 132651 6765201 204217 10415067
Apr-13 52 2704 140608 7311616 200265 10413780
May-13 53 2809 148877 7890481 228185 12093805
Jun-13 54 2916 157464 8503056 241194 13024476
Jul-13 55 3025 166375 9150625 218755 12031525
Aug-13 56 3136 175616 9834496 254221 14236376
Sep-13 57 3249 185193 10556001 236587 13485459
Oct-13 58 3364 195112 11316496 247729 14368282
Nov-13 59 3481 205379 12117361 237937 14038283
Dec-13 60 3600 216000 12960000 504670 30280200
2014 Jan-14 61 3721 226981 13845841 247805 15116105
Feb-14 62 3844 238328 14776336 167774 10401988
Mar-14 63 3969 250047 15752961 216172 13618836
Apr-14 64 4096 262144 16777216 213064 13636096
May-14 65 4225 274625 17850625 245313 15945345
Jun-14 66 4356 287496 18974736 263972 17422152
Jul-14 67 4489 300763 20151121 207612 13910004
Aug-14 68 4624 314432 21381376 319856 21750208
Sep-14 69 4761 328509 22667121 250340 17273460
Oct-14 70 4900 343000 24010000 265016 18551120
Nov-14 71 5041 357911 25411681 249753 17732463
Dec-14 72 5184 373248 26873856 269996 19439712
2015 Jan-15 73 5329 389017 28398241 235995 17227635
Feb-15 74 5476 405224 29986576 195558 14471292
Mar-15 75 5625 421875 31640625 211309 15848175
Apr-15 76 5776 438976 33362176 221463 16831188
May-15 77 5929 456533 35153041 258267 19886559
Jun-15 78 6084 474552 37015056 245858 19176924
Jul-15 79 6241 493039 38950081 274781 21707699
Aug-15 80 6400 512000 40960000 273832 21906560
Sep-15 81 6561 531441 43046721 238937 19353897
Oct-15 82 6724 551368 45212176 270064 22145248
Nov-15 83 6889 571787 47458321 260983 21661589
Dec-15 84 7056 592704 49787136 279743 23498412
TOTAL 3570 201110 12744900 861515018 16482131 796937529
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15

Keberangkatan

Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 J
X2.Y Forecasting MAD
119611 119611 0 α= -352608900
413344 119611 16275 β= -4148340
1100259 103336 18915 γ = -31922029412
1785840 122251 10636 δ = -3.933073E+12
3176200 111615 15433 θ =-677193262466
4730760 127048 4362
7320943 131410 17997 b 15489095.277
8517440 149407 16322 c -171070.44117
9840852 133085 11593
14899600 121492 27504
16689530 148996 11066
21574368 137930 11892
23704447 149822 9559
23792048 140263 18875
32084325 121388 21209
36114688 142597 1524
44727952 141073 13695
49600836 154768 1679
64421533 153089 25364
56324800 178453 37641
72394119 140812 23347
86699888 164159 14973
21275851 179132 138913
88631424 40219 113655
106401875 153874 16369
93743624 170243 31569
109562868 138674 11618
124390224 150292 8369
126455283 158661 8298
149878800 150363 16169
191405253 166532 32641
137780224 199173 64622
210711699 134551 58940
218398456 193491 4565
216014050 188926 12588
237716208 176338 7085
256757319 183423 4128
242246884 187551 19790
273136617 167761 11816
288820800 179577 936
316451612 180513 7739
336828744 188252 2694
365024033 190946 6471
369723728 197417 6444
446188500 190973 29367
460962136 220340 2494
480386812 217846 378
503103744 217468 893
510274926 218361 5835
447200000 212526 33646
531168417 178880 25337
541516560 204217 3952
640971665 200265 27920
703321704 228185 13009
661733875 241194 22439
797237056 218755 35466
768671163 254221 17634
833360356 236587 11142
828258697 247729 9792
1816812000 237937 266733
922082405 504670 256865
644923256 247805 80031
857986668 167774 48398
872710144 216172 3108
1036447425 213064 32249
1149862032 245313 18659
931970268 263972 56360
1479014144 207612 112244
1191868740 319856 69516
1298578400 250340 14676
1259004873 265016 15263
1399659264 249753 20243
1257617355 269996 34001
1070875608 235995 40437
1188613125 195558 15751
1279170288 211309 10154
1531265043 221463 36804
1495800072 258267 12409
1714908221 245858 28923
1752524800 274781 949
1567665657 273832 34895
1815910336 238937 31127
1797911887 270064 9081
1973866608 260983 18760
47522793189 SUM 2,422,220

Column D
Column E
Column D
Column E

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

Column P
Column S

n-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15


Kedatangan
Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD
2009 Jan-09 1 114501 2009
Feb-09 2 107411
Mar-09 3 121479 100321 21158
Apr-09 4 115956 135547 19591
May-09 5 129319 110433 18886
Jun-09 6 134653 142682 8029
Jul-09 7 148178 139987 8191
Aug-09 8 136806 161703 24897
Sep-09 9 139670 125434 14236
Oct-09 10 143150 142534 616
Nov-09 11 136873 146630 9757
Dec-09 12 152818 130596 22222
2010 Jan-10 13 132155 168763 36608 2010
Feb-10 14 127477 111492 15985
Mar-10 15 142649 122799 19850
Apr-10 16 141773 157821 16048
May-10 17 157574 140897 16677
Jun-10 18 157571 173375 15804
Jul-10 19 177554 157568 19986
Aug-10 20 146396 197537 51141
Sep-10 21 179583 115238 64345
Oct-10 22 167593 212770 45177
Nov-10 23 37407 155603 118196
Dec-10 24 156173 -92779 248952
2011 Jan-11 25 150243 274939 124696 2011
Feb-11 26 139520 144313 4793
Mar-11 27 151458 128797 22661
Apr-11 28 160824 163396 2572
May-11 29 151740 170190 18450
Jun-11 30 170271 142656 27615
Jul-11 31 195637 188802 6835
Aug-11 32 171528 221003 49475
Sep-11 33 187406 147419 39987
Oct-11 34 183795 203284 19489
Nov-11 35 176289 180184 3895
Dec-11 36 187078 168783 18295
2012 Jan-12 37 178559 197867 19308 2012
Feb-12 38 171898 170040 1858
Mar-12 39 183237 165237 18000
Apr-12 40 181726 194576 12850
May-12 41 189947 180215 9732
Jun-12 42 196749 198168 1419
Jul-12 43 193397 203551 10154
Aug-12 44 218784 190045 28739
Sep-12 45 209068 244171 35103
Oct-12 46 219274 199352 19922
Nov-12 47 211927 229480 17553
Dec-12 48 223050 204580 18470
2013 Jan-13 49 198589 234173 35584 2013
Feb-13 50 182511 174128 8383
Mar-13 51 208529 166433 42096
Apr-13 52 200043 234547 34504
May-13 53 234456 191557 42899
Jun-13 54 253073 268869 15796
Jul-13 55 222885 271690 48805
Aug-13 56 272474 192697 79777
Sep-13 57 228472 322063 93591
Oct-13 58 248853 184470 64383
Nov-13 59 232886 269234 36348
Dec-13 60 256342 216919 39423
2014 Jan-14 61 234850 279798 44948 2014
Feb-14 62 173522 213358 39836
Mar-14 63 223934 112194 111740
Apr-14 64 212685 274346 61661
May-14 65 253294 201436 51858
Jun-14 66 269147 293903 24756
Jul-14 67 262692 285000 22308
Aug-14 68 284380 256237 28143
Sep-14 69 246638 306068 59430
Oct-14 70 266738 208896 57842
Nov-14 71 243928 286838 42910
Dec-14 72 281529 221118 60411
2015 Jan-15 73 217414 319130 101716 2015
Feb-15 74 205921 153299 52622
Mar-15 75 217069 194428 22641
Apr-15 76 226265 228217 1952
May-15 77 265060 235461 29599
Jun-15 78 246855 303855 57000
Jul-15 79 295975 228650 67325
Aug-15 80 291203 345095 53892
Sep-15 81 248833 286431 37598
Oct-15 82 264802 206463 58339
Nov-15 83 256759 280771 24012
Dec-15 84 283318 248716 34602
SUM 3036953
MAD 37036.01
400000

300000

200000

100000

0
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12

-100000

-200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

-200000
Keberangkatan
Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD
Jan-09 1 119611
Feb-09 2 103336
Mar-09 3 122251 87061 35190
Apr-09 4 111615 141166 29551
May-09 5 127048 100979 26069
Jun-09 6 131410 142481 11071
Jul-09 7 149407 135772 13635
Aug-09 8 133085 167404 34319
Sep-09 9 121492 116763 4729
Oct-09 10 148996 109899 39097
Nov-09 11 137930 176500 38570
Dec-09 12 149822 126864 22958
Jan-10 13 140263 161714 21451
Feb-10 14 121388 130704 9316
Mar-10 15 142597 102513 40084
Apr-10 16 141073 163806 22733
May-10 17 154768 139549 15219
Jun-10 18 153089 168463 15374
Jul-10 19 178453 151410 27043
Aug-10 20 140812 203817 63005
Sep-10 21 164159 103171 60988
Oct-10 22 179132 187506 8374
Nov-10 23 40219 194105 153886
Dec-10 24 153874 -98694 252568
Jan-11 25 170243 267529 97286
Feb-11 26 138674 186612 47938
Mar-11 27 150292 107105 43187
Apr-11 28 158661 161910 3249
May-11 29 150363 167030 16667
Jun-11 30 166532 142065 24467
Jul-11 31 199173 182701 16472
Aug-11 32 134551 231814 97263
Sep-11 33 193491 69929 123562
Oct-11 34 188926 252431 63505
Nov-11 35 176338 184361 8023
Dec-11 36 183423 163750 19673
Jan-12 37 187551 190508 2957
Feb-12 38 167761 191679 23918
Mar-12 39 179577 147971 31606
Apr-12 40 180513 191393 10880
May-12 41 188252 181449 6803
Jun-12 42 190946 195991 5045
Jul-12 43 197417 193640 3777
Aug-12 44 190973 203888 12915
Sep-12 45 220340 184529 35811
Oct-12 46 217846 249707 31861
Nov-12 47 217468 215352 2116
Dec-12 48 218361 217090 1271
Jan-13 49 212526 219254 6728
Feb-13 50 178880 206691 27811
Mar-13 51 204217 145234 58983
Apr-13 52 200265 229554 29289
May-13 53 228185 196313 31872
Jun-13 54 241194 256105 14911
Jul-13 55 218755 254203 35448
Aug-13 56 254221 196316 57905
Sep-13 57 236587 289687 53100
Oct-13 58 247729 218953 28776
Nov-13 59 237937 258871 20934
Dec-13 60 504670 228145 276525
Jan-14 61 247805 771403 523598
Feb-14 62 167774 -9060 176834
Mar-14 63 216172 87743 128429
Apr-14 64 213064 264570 51506
May-14 65 245313 209956 35357
Jun-14 66 263972 277562 13590
Jul-14 67 207612 282631 75019
Aug-14 68 319856 151252 168604
Sep-14 69 250340 432100 181760
Oct-14 70 265016 180824 84192
Nov-14 71 249753 279692 29939
Dec-14 72 269996 234490 35506
Jan-15 73 235995 290239 54244
Feb-15 74 195558 201994 6436
Mar-15 75 211309 155121 56188
Apr-15 76 221463 227060 5597
May-15 77 258267 231617 26650
Jun-15 78 245858 295071 49213
Jul-15 79 274781 233449 41332
Aug-15 80 273832 303704 29872
Sep-15 81 238937 272883 33946
Oct-15 82 270064 204042 66022
Nov-15 83 260983 301191 40208
Dec-15 84 279743 251902 27841
SUM 4259647
MAD 51321.05
1 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Ju

Colum
nM
Colum
nN

Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15


Real Data
Forecasting

ct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15


Kedatangan
Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD
2009 Jan-09 1 114501
Feb-09 2 107411
Mar-09 3 121479 100760.02 20718.98
Apr-09 4 115956 137389.54 21433.54
May-09 5 129319 110684.10 18634.90
Jun-09 6 134653 144221.98 9568.98
Jul-09 7 148178 140207.01 7970.99
Aug-09 8 136806 163061.50 26255.50
Sep-09 9 139670 126306.75 13363.25
Oct-09 10 143150 142593.96 556.04
Nov-09 11 136873 146716.71 9843.71
Dec-09 12 152818 130871.24 21946.76
2010 Jan-10 13 132155 170620.51 38465.51
Feb-10 14 127477 114285.91 13191.09
Mar-10 15 142649 122964.59 19684.41
Apr-10 16 141773 159626.73 17853.73
May-10 17 157574 140902.38 16671.62
Jun-10 18 157571 175136.07 17565.07
Jul-10 19 177554 157568.00 19986.00
Aug-10 20 146396 200071.22 53675.22
Sep-10 21 179583 120705.75 58877.25
Oct-10 22 167593 220293.27 52700.27
Nov-10 23 37407 156403.52 118996.52
Dec-10 24 156173 8349.30 147823.70
2011 Jan-11 25 150243 652017.16 501774.16
Feb-11 26 139520 144538.17 5018.17
Mar-11 27 151458 129562.31 21895.69
Apr-11 28 160824 164417.47 3593.47
May-11 29 151740 170769.18 19029.18
Jun-11 30 170271 143169.10 27101.90
Jul-11 31 195637 191065.07 4571.93
Aug-11 32 171528 224781.88 53253.88
Sep-11 33 187406 150390.03 37015.97
Oct-11 34 183795 204753.79 20958.79
Nov-11 35 176289 180253.58 3964.58
Dec-11 36 187078 169089.54 17988.46
2012 Jan-12 37 178559 198527.29 19968.29
Feb-12 38 171898 170427.93 1470.07
Mar-12 39 183237 165485.48 17751.52
Apr-12 40 181726 195323.96 13597.96
May-12 41 189947 180227.46 9719.54
Jun-12 42 196749 198539.91 1790.91
Jul-12 43 193397 203794.58 10397.58
Aug-12 44 218784 190102.11 28681.89
Sep-12 45 209068 247503.52 38435.52
Oct-12 46 219274 199783.48 19490.52
Nov-12 47 211927 229978.22 18051.22
Dec-12 48 223050 204826.17 18223.83
2013 Jan-13 49 198589 234756.79 36167.79
Feb-13 50 182511 176810.54 5700.46
Mar-13 51 208529 167734.69 40794.31
Apr-13 52 200043 238256.02 38213.02
May-13 53 234456 191902.33 42553.67
Jun-13 54 253073 274789.00 21716.00
Jul-13 55 222885 273168.28 50283.28
Aug-13 56 272474 196298.00 76176.00
Sep-13 57 228472 333095.90 104623.90
Oct-13 58 248853 191575.91 57277.09
Nov-13 59 232886 271052.10 38166.10
Dec-13 60 256342 217943.48 38398.52
2014 Jan-14 61 234850 282160.46 47310.46
Feb-14 62 173522 215159.91 41637.91
Mar-14 63 223934 128209.00 95725.00
Apr-14 64 212685 288991.81 76306.81
May-14 65 253294 202001.08 51292.92
Jun-14 66 269147 301656.68 32509.68
Jul-14 67 262692 285992.20 23300.20
Aug-14 68 284380 256391.81 27988.19
Sep-14 69 246638 307858.57 61220.57
Oct-14 70 266738 213905.00 52833.00
Nov-14 71 243928 288476.07 44548.07
Dec-14 72 281529 223068.59 58460.41
2015 Jan-15 73 217414 324926.12 107512.12
Feb-15 74 205921 167900.46 38020.54
Mar-15 75 217069 195035.55 22033.45
Apr-15 76 226265 228820.52 2555.52
May-15 77 265060 235850.58 29209.42
Jun-15 78 246855 310506.72 63651.72
Jul-15 79 295975 229900.37 66074.63
Aug-15 80 291203 354869.06 63666.06
Sep-15 81 248833 286507.94 37674.94
Oct-15 82 264802 212627.83 52174.17
Nov-15 83 256759 281795.82 25036.82
Dec-15 84 283318 248960.30 34357.70
SUM 3344698.54
MAD 40789.006606
700000

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Ma

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Ma
Keberangkatan
Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD
2009 Jan-09 1 119611
Feb-09 2 103336
Mar-09 3 122251 89275.48 32975.52
Apr-09 4 111615 144628.27 33013.27
May-09 5 127048 101904.35 25143.65
Jun-09 6 131410 144614.92 13204.92
Jul-09 7 149407 135921.76 13485.24
Aug-09 8 133085 169868.74 36783.74
Sep-09 9 121492 118546.10 2945.90
Oct-09 10 148996 110908.86 38087.14
Nov-09 11 137930 182726.50 44796.50
Dec-09 12 149822 127685.88 22136.12
2010 Jan-10 13 140263 162739.30 22476.30
Feb-10 14 121388 131313.89 9925.89
Mar-10 15 142597 105052.98 37544.02
Apr-10 16 141073 167511.65 26438.65
May-10 17 154768 139565.29 15202.71
Jun-10 18 153089 169792.47 16703.47
Jul-10 19 178453 151428.21 27024.79
Aug-10 20 140812 208019.34 67207.34
Sep-10 21 164159 111110.60 53048.40
Oct-10 22 179132 191376.99 12244.99
Nov-10 23 40219 195470.69 155251.69
Dec-10 24 153874 9030.03 144843.97
2011 Jan-11 25 170243 588707.03 418464.03
Feb-11 26 138674 188353.32 49679.32
Mar-11 27 150292 112959.00 37333.00
Apr-11 28 158661 162883.35 4222.35
May-11 29 150363 167496.03 17133.03
Jun-11 30 166532 142498.99 24033.01
Jul-11 31 199173 184439.70 14733.30
Aug-11 32 134551 238211.78 103660.78
Sep-11 33 193491 90895.71 102595.29
Oct-11 34 188926 278249.64 89323.64
Nov-11 35 176338 184468.70 8130.70
Dec-11 36 183423 164588.73 18834.27
2012 Jan-12 37 187551 190792.66 3241.66
Feb-12 38 167761 191771.90 24010.90
Mar-12 39 179577 150059.20 29517.80
Apr-12 40 180513 192225.24 11712.24
May-12 41 188252 181453.88 6798.12
Jun-12 42 190946 196322.79 5376.79
Jul-12 43 197417 193678.55 3738.45
Aug-12 44 190973 204107.30 13134.30
Sep-12 45 220340 184739.34 35600.66
Oct-12 46 217846 254222.93 36376.93
Nov-12 47 217468 215380.23 2087.77
Dec-12 48 218361 217090.66 1270.34
2013 Jan-13 49 212526 219257.67 6731.67
Feb-13 50 178880 206846.92 27966.92
Mar-13 51 204217 150560.66 53656.34
Apr-13 52 200265 233142.79 32877.79
May-13 53 228185 196389.48 31795.52
Jun-13 54 241194 259997.47 18803.47
Jul-13 55 218755 254944.65 36189.65
Aug-13 56 254221 198403.57 55817.43
Sep-13 57 236587 295436.98 58849.98
Oct-13 58 247729 220176.18 27552.82
Nov-13 59 237937 259395.73 21458.73
Dec-13 60 504670 228532.05 276137.95
2014 Jan-14 61 247805 1070417.00 822612.00
Feb-14 62 167774 121678.16 46095.84
Mar-14 63 216172 113589.78 102582.22
Apr-14 64 213064 278531.44 65467.44
May-14 65 245313 210000.69 35312.31
Jun-14 66 263972 282443.15 18471.15
Jul-14 67 207612 284050.24 76438.24
Aug-14 68 319856 163285.28 156570.72
Sep-14 69 250340 492783.95 242443.95
Oct-14 70 265016 195932.28 69083.72
Nov-14 71 249753 280552.37 30799.37
Dec-14 72 269996 235369.04 34626.96
2015 Jan-15 73 235995 291879.74 55884.74
Feb-15 74 195558 206275.80 10717.80
Mar-15 75 211309 162049.75 49259.25
Apr-15 76 221463 228328.65 6865.65
May-15 77 258267 232104.93 26162.07
Jun-15 78 245858 301187.30 55329.30
Jul-15 79 274781 234045.22 40735.78
Aug-15 80 273832 307106.53 33274.53
Sep-15 81 238937 272886.28 33949.28
Oct-15 82 270064 208488.74 61575.26
Nov-15 83 260983 305246.00 44263.00
Dec-15 84 279743 252207.35 27535.65
SUM 4705387.43
MAD 57382.77348
Column D
Column E

May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15

Column M
Column N

May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15
Column D
Column E

Column M
Column N
Kedatangan
Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD
2009 Jan-09 1 114501
Feb-09 2 107411
Mar-09 3 121479
Apr-09 4 115956
May-09 5 129319 114501 14818
Jun-09 6 134653 107411 27242
Jul-09 7 148178 121479 26699
Aug-09 8 136806 115956 20850
Sep-09 9 139670 129319 10351
Oct-09 10 143150 134653 8497
Nov-09 11 136873 148178 11305
Dec-09 12 152818 136806 16012
2010 Jan-10 13 132155 139670 7515
Feb-10 14 127477 143150 15673
Mar-10 15 142649 136873 5776
Apr-10 16 141773 152818 11045
May-10 17 157574 132155 25419
Jun-10 18 157571 127477 30094
Jul-10 19 177554 142649 34905
Aug-10 20 146396 141773 4623
Sep-10 21 179583 157574 22009
Oct-10 22 167593 157571 10022
Nov-10 23 37407 177554 140147
Dec-10 24 156173 146396 9777
2011 Jan-11 25 150243 179583 29340
Feb-11 26 139520 167593 28073
Mar-11 27 151458 37407 114051
Apr-11 28 160824 156173 4651
May-11 29 151740 150243 1497
Jun-11 30 170271 139520 30751
Jul-11 31 195637 151458 44179
Aug-11 32 171528 160824 10704
Sep-11 33 187406 151740 35666
Oct-11 34 183795 170271 13524
Nov-11 35 176289 195637 19348
Dec-11 36 187078 171528 15550
2012 Jan-12 37 178559 187406 8847
Feb-12 38 171898 183795 11897
Mar-12 39 183237 176289 6948
Apr-12 40 181726 187078 5352
May-12 41 189947 178559 11388
Jun-12 42 196749 171898 24851
Jul-12 43 193397 183237 10160
Aug-12 44 218784 181726 37058
Sep-12 45 209068 189947 19121
Oct-12 46 219274 196749 22525
Nov-12 47 211927 193397 18530
Dec-12 48 223050 218784 4266
2013 Jan-13 49 198589 209068 10479
Feb-13 50 182511 219274 36763
Mar-13 51 208529 211927 3398
Apr-13 52 200043 223050 23007
May-13 53 234456 198589 35867
Jun-13 54 253073 182511 70562
Jul-13 55 222885 208529 14356
Aug-13 56 272474 200043 72431
Sep-13 57 228472 234456 5984
Oct-13 58 248853 253073 4220
Nov-13 59 232886 222885 10001
Dec-13 60 256342 272474 16132
2014 Jan-14 61 234850 228472 6378
Feb-14 62 173522 248853 75331
Mar-14 63 223934 232886 8952
Apr-14 64 212685 256342 43657
May-14 65 253294 234850 18444
Jun-14 66 269147 173522 95625
Jul-14 67 262692 223934 38758
Aug-14 68 284380 212685 71695
Sep-14 69 246638 253294 6656
Oct-14 70 266738 269147 2409
Nov-14 71 243928 262692 18764
Dec-14 72 281529 284380 2851
2015 Jan-15 73 217414 246638 29224
Feb-15 74 205921 266738 60817
Mar-15 75 217069 243928 26859
Apr-15 76 226265 281529 55264
May-15 77 265060 217414 47646
Jun-15 78 246855 205921 40934
Jul-15 79 295975 217069 78906
Aug-15 80 291203 226265 64938
Sep-15 81 248833 265060 16227
Oct-15 82 264802 246855 17947
Nov-15 83 256759 295975 39216
Dec-15 84 283318 291203 7885
SUM 2159639
MAD 26995.4875

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000
350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Month No Real DataForecasting MAD
2009 Jan-09 1 119611
Feb-09 2 103336
Mar-09 3 122251
Apr-09 4 111615
May-09 5 127048 119611 7437.00
Jun-09 6 131410 103336 28074.00
Jul-09 7 149407 122251 27156.00
Aug-09 8 133085 111615 21470.00
Sep-09 9 121492 127048 5556.00
Oct-09 10 148996 131410 17586.00
Nov-09 11 137930 149407 11477.00
Dec-09 12 149822 133085 16737.00
2010 Jan-10 13 140263 121492 18771.00
Feb-10 14 121388 148996 27608.00
Mar-10 15 142597 137930 4667.00
Apr-10 16 141073 149822 8749.00
May-10 17 154768 140263 14505.00
Jun-10 18 153089 121388 31701.00
Jul-10 19 178453 142597 35856.00
Aug-10 20 140812 141073 261.00
Sep-10 21 164159 154768 9391.00
Oct-10 22 179132 153089 26043.00
Nov-10 23 40219 178453 138234.00
Dec-10 24 153874 140812 13062.00
2011 Jan-11 25 170243 164159 6084.00
Feb-11 26 138674 179132 40458.00
Mar-11 27 150292 40219 110073.00
Apr-11 28 158661 153874 4787.00
May-11 29 150363 170243 19880.00
Jun-11 30 166532 138674 27858.00
Jul-11 31 199173 150292 48881.00
Aug-11 32 134551 158661 24110.00
Sep-11 33 193491 150363 43128.00
Oct-11 34 188926 166532 22394.00
Nov-11 35 176338 199173 22835.00
Dec-11 36 183423 134551 48872.00
2012 Jan-12 37 187551 193491 5940.00
Feb-12 38 167761 188926 21165.00
Mar-12 39 179577 176338 3239.00
Apr-12 40 180513 183423 2910.00
May-12 41 188252 187551 701.00
Jun-12 42 190946 167761 23185.00
Jul-12 43 197417 179577 17840.00
Aug-12 44 190973 180513 10460.00
Sep-12 45 220340 188252 32088.00
Oct-12 46 217846 190946 26900.00
Nov-12 47 217468 197417 20051.00
Dec-12 48 218361 190973 27388.00
2013 Jan-13 49 212526 220340 7814.00
Feb-13 50 178880 217846 38966.00
Mar-13 51 204217 217468 13251.00
Apr-13 52 200265 218361 18096.00
May-13 53 228185 212526 15659.00
Jun-13 54 241194 178880 62314.00
Jul-13 55 218755 204217 14538.00
Aug-13 56 254221 200265 53956.00
Sep-13 57 236587 228185 8402.00
Oct-13 58 247729 241194 6535.00
Nov-13 59 237937 218755 19182.00
Dec-13 60 504670 254221 250449.00
2014 Jan-14 61 247805 236587 11218.00
Feb-14 62 167774 247729 79955.00
Mar-14 63 216172 237937 21765.00
Apr-14 64 213064 504670 291606.00
May-14 65 245313 247805 2492.00
Jun-14 66 263972 167774 96198.00
Jul-14 67 207612 216172 8560.00
Aug-14 68 319856 213064 106792.00
Sep-14 69 250340 245313 5027.00
Oct-14 70 265016 263972 1044.00
Nov-14 71 249753 207612 42141.00
Dec-14 72 269996 319856 49860.00
2015 Jan-15 73 235995 250340 14345.00
Feb-15 74 195558 265016 69458.00
Mar-15 75 211309 249753 38444.00
Apr-15 76 221463 269996 48533.00
May-15 77 258267 235995 22272.00
Jun-15 78 245858 195558 50300.00
Jul-15 79 274781 211309 63472.00
Aug-15 80 273832 221463 52369.00
Sep-15 81 238937 258267 19330.00
Oct-15 82 270064 245858 24206.00
Nov-15 83 260983 274781 13798.00
Dec-15 84 279743 273832 5911.00
SUM 2723826.00
MAD 34047.825

Real D
Foreca
Real D
Foreca

1 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15

Real D
Foreca

1 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15
Real Data
Forecasting
Real Data
Forecasting

15 Sep-15

Real Data
Forecasting

15 Sep-15