Anda di halaman 1dari 18

2009 2010

Bulan
datang berangkat transit total datang berangkat transit total
January 343708 365939 15725 725372 390318 432203 12154 834675
February 294358 290852 12416 597626 380969 402286 11653 794908
March 347650 337323 12017 696990 411254 397774 12093 821121
April 359531 341267 11279 712077 411318 419165 8114 838597
May 390352 394727 7792 792871 439522 443738 7754 891014
June 414109 394260 9959 818328 479934 471253 7999 959186
July 476465 457941 11290 945696 545506 533185 10824 1089515
August 441885 471026 9037 921948 473271 514281 7656 995208
September 417901 402032 9572 829505 489327 486816 7698 983841
October 431464 442496 9759 883719 494828 512537 7710 1015075
November 394857 400025 10662 805544 437774 452154 10103 900031
December 463952 413488 14598 892038 520658 466288 14060 1001006
2011 2012
datang berangkat transit total datang berangkat transit total
467462 516420 11539 995421 558126 615324 11589 1185039
446581 441753 15045 903379 485041 481252 12587 978880
450227 450637 10025 910889 523649 510243 14366 1048258
486123 473213 9955 969291 532588 538208 12932 1083728
500022 509823 10426 1020271 548719 548321 12804 1109844
567955 542456 13106 1123517 609684 582267 14355 1206306
617236 613487 13377 1244100 0
532954 543620 11863 1088437 0
555703 562271 12028 1130002 0
554388 578059 11773 1144220 0
540013 545244 10999 1096256 0
592733 548245 13702 1154680 0
Naive Method

Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD

January 1 725372 725372 0 Real Data Fo


1400000
February 2 597626 725372 127746
March 3 696990 597626 99364 1200000
April 4 712077 696990 15087
1000000
May 5 792871 712077 80794
June 6 818328 792871 25457 800000
2009
July 7 945696 818328 127368
August 8 600000
921948 945696 23748
September 9 829505 921948 92443 400000
October 10 883719 829505 54214
November 11 200000
805544 883719 78175
December 12 892038 805544 86494 0
January 13 834675 892038 57363 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
February 14 794908 834675 39767
March 15 821121 794908 26213
April 16 838597 821121 17476
May 17 891014 838597 52417
June 18 959186 891014 68172
2010
July 19 1089515 959186 130329
August 20 995208 1089515 94307
September 21 983841 995208 11367
October 22 1015075 983841 31234
November 23 900031 1015075 115044
December 24 1001006 900031 100975
January 25 995421 1001006 5585
February 26 903379 995421 92042
March 27 910889 903379 7510
April 28 969291 910889 58402
May 29 1020271 969291 50980
June 30 1123517 1020271 103246
2011
July 31 1244100 1123517 120583
August 32 1088437 1244100 155663
September 33 1130002 1088437 41565
October 34 1144220 1130002 14218
November 35 1096256 1144220 47964
December 36 1154680 1096256 58424
January 37 1185039 1154680 30359
February 38 978880 1185039 206159
March 39 1048258 978880 69378
2012
April 40 1083728 1048258 35470
2012

May 41 1109844 1083728 26116


June 42 1206306 1109844 96462
SUM 2775680
MAD 66087.62
Real Data Forecasting

7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Naive Method

Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD Real Data


1600000
January 1 725372
February 2 597626 725372 127746 1400000
March 3 696990 469880 227110 1200000
April 4 712077 796354 84277
1000000
May 5 792871 727164 65707
June 6 818328 873665 55337 800000
2009
July 7 945696 843785 101911 600000
August 8 921948 1073064 151116
400000
September 9 829505 898200 68695
October 10 883719 737062 146657 200000
November 11 805544 937933 132389 0
December 12 892038 727369 164669 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
January 13 834675 978532 143857
February 14 794908 777312 17596
March 15 821121 755141 65980
April 16 838597 847334 8737
May 17 891014 856073 34941
June 18 959186 943431 15755
2010
July 19 1089515 1027358 62157
August 20 995208 1219844 224636
September 21 983841 900901 82940
October 22 1015075 972474 42601
November 23 900031 1046309 146278
December 24 1001006 784987 216019
January 25 995421 1101981 106560
February 26 903379 989836 86457
March 27 910889 811337 99552
April 28 969291 918399 50892
May 29 1020271 1027693 7422
June 30 1123517 1071251 52266
2011
July 31 1244100 1226763 17337
August 32 1088437 1364683 276246
September 33 1130002 932774 197228
October 34 1144220 1171567 27347
November 35 1096256 1158438 62182
December 36 1154680 1048292 106388
January 37 1185039 1213104 28065
February 38 978880 1215398 236518
March 39 1048258 772721 275537
2012
April 40 1083728 1117636 33908
2012

May 41 1109844 1119198 9354


June 42 1206306 1135960 70346
SUM 4130716
MAD 100749.17
Real Data Forecasting

7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Naive Method

Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD

January 1 725372
February 2 597626 725372 127746
March 3 696990 492377.48 204612.52213
April 4 712077 812874.71 100797.70776
May 5 792871 727490.57 65380.427784
June 6 818328 882832.09 64504.085071
2009
July 7 945696 844602.36 101093.64276
August 8 921948 1092888.09 170940.08939
September 9 829505 898796.35 69291.351792
October 10 883719 746331.19 137387.81318
November 11 805544 941476.27 135932.26712
December 12 892038 734284.47 157753.53182
January 13 834675 987819.16 153144.15506
February 14 794908 781000.76 13907.240363
March 15 821121 757035.65 64085.353234
April 16 838597 848198.40 9601.4036404
May 17 891014 856444.94 34569.056552
June 18 959186 946707.36 12478.644505
2010
July 19 1089515 1032573.88 56941.120582
August 20 995208 1237552.40 242344.39883
September 21 983841 909064.09 74776.908855
October 22 1015075 972603.83 42471.169162
November 23 900031 1047300.59 147269.58579
December 24 1001006 798025.57 202980.43444
January 25 995421 1113309.44 117888.44383
February 26 903379 989867.16 86488.160877
March 27 910889 819847.70 91041.29974
April 28 969291 918461.43 50829.567621
May 29 1020271 1031437.47 11166.466784
June 30 1123517 1073932.30 49584.699544
2011
July 31 1244100 1237210.95 6889.0538014
August 32 1088437 1377624.74 289187.73554
September 33 1130002 952250.71 177751.29429
October 34 1144220 1173154.28 28934.275354
November 35 1096256 1158616.89 62360.894837
December 36 1154680 1050302.58 104377.42048
January 37 1185039 1216217.66 31178.65573
February 38 978880 1216196.20 237316.20286
March 39 1048258 808586.09 239671.90756
2012
April 40 1083728 1122553.16 38825.157245
2012

May 41 1109844 1120398.20 10554.201573


June 42 1206306 1136589.35 69716.648857
SUM 4093770.9964
MAD 99848.07

Real Data Forecasting


1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 15 1 7 19 2 1 23 2 5 27 2 9 31 3 3 35 3 7 39 4 1
Naive Method

Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD

January 1 725372
February 2 597626
March 3 696990
April 4 712077
May 5 792871 725372.00 67499
June 6 818328 597626.00 220702
2009
July 7 945696 696990.00 248706
August 8 921948 712077.00 209871
September 9 829505 792871.00 36634
October 10 883719 818328.00 65391
November 11 805544 945696.00 140152
December 12 892038 921948.00 29910
January 13 834675 829505.00 5170
February 14 794908 883719.00 88811
March 15 821121 805544.00 15577
April 16 838597 892038.00 53441
May 17 891014 834675.00 56339
June 18 959186 794908.00 164278
2010
July 19 1089515 821121.00 268394
August 20 995208 838597.00 156611
September 21 983841 891014.00 92827
October 22 1015075 959186.00 55889
November 23 900031 1089515.00 189484
December 24 1001006 995208.00 5798
January 25 995421 983841.00 11580
February 26 903379 1015075.00 111696
March 27 910889 900031.00 10858
April 28 969291 1001006.00 31715
May 29 1020271 995421.00 24850
June 30 1123517 903379.00 220138
2011
July 31 1244100 910889.00 333211
August 32 1088437 969291.00 119146
September 33 1130002 1020271.00 109731
October 34 1144220 1123517.00 20703
November 35 1096256 1244100.00 147844
December 36 1154680 1088437.00 66243
January 37 1185039 1130002.00 55037
February 38 978880 1144220.00 165340
March 39 1048258 1096256.00 47998
2012
April 40 1083728 1154680.00 70952
2012

May 41 1109844 1185039.00 75195


June 42 1206306 978880.00 227426
SUM 4021147
MAD 105819.66

Real Data Forecasting


1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
1 3 5 7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 7 19 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 29 31 33 35 37
Simple Average Method

Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD


January 1 725372 725372 0
Real Data
February 2 597626 725372.00 127746 1400000
March 3 696990 661499.00 35491
April 4 712077 673329.33 38747.6666667 1200000
May 5 792871 683016.25 109854.75
1000000
June 6 818328 704987.20 113340.8
2009
July 7 945696 723877.33 221818.666667 800000
August 8 921948 755565.71 166382.285714
600000
September 9 829505 776363.50 53141.5
October 10 883719 782268.11 101450.888889 400000
November 11 805544 792413.20 13130.8
200000
December 12 892038 793606.91 98431.0909091
January 13 834675 801809.50 32865.5 0
February 14 794908 804337.62 9429.61538462 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 2
March 15 821121 803664.07 17456.9285714
April 16 838597 804827.87 33769.1333333
May 17 891014 806938.44 84075.5625
June 18 959186 811884.06 147301.941176
2010
July 19 1089515 820067.50 269447.5
August 20 995208 834248.95 160959.052632
September 21 983841 842296.90 141544.1
October 22 1015075 849037.10 166037.904762
November 23 900031 856584.27 43446.7272727
December 24 1001006 858473.26 142532.73913
January 25 995421 864412.13 131008.875
February 26 903379 869652.48 33726.52
March 27 910889 870949.65 39939.3461538
April 28 969291 872428.89 96862.1111111
May 29 1020271 875888.25 144382.75
June 30 1123517 880866.97 242650.034483
2011
July 31 1244100 888955.30 355144.7
August 32 1088437 900411.58 188025.419355
September 33 1130002 906287.38 223714.625
October 34 1144220 913066.61 231153.393939
November 35 1096256 919865.24 176390.764706
December 36 1154680 924904.97 229775.028571
January 37 1185039 931287.61 253751.388889
February 38 978880 938145.76 40734.2432432
March 39 1048258 939217.71 109040.289474
2012
April 40 1083728 942013.62 141714.384615
May 41 1109844 945556.48 164287.525
2012

June 42 1206306 949563.49 256742.512195


SUM 5387446.06534
MAD 128272.525365
Real Data Forecasting

7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Moving Average Method

Month No Real Data Forecasting MAD

January 1 725372
February 2 597626
March 3 696990
April 4 712077
1400000
May 5 792871
June 6 818328 723877.33 94450.6666667 1200000
2009
July 7 945696 760598.00 185098 1000000
August 8 921948 814651.67 107296.333333 800000
September 9 829505 836737.50 7232.5
600000

Value
October 10 883719 865344.50 18374.5
November 11 805544 867456.67 61912.6666667 400000
December 12 892038 879741.67 12296.3333333 200000
January 13 834675 861238.17 26563.1666667 0
February 14 794908 840064.83 45156.8333333 1 3 5 7 9 11
March 15 821121 838667.50 17546.5
April 16 838597 831147.17 7449.83333333
May 17 891014 845392.17 45621.8333333
June 18 959186 856583.50 102602.5
2010
July 19 1089515 899056.83 190458.166667
1400000
August 20 995208 932440.17 62767.8333333
September 21 983841 959560.17 24280.8333333 1200000
October 22 1015075 988973.17 26101.8333333
November 23 900031 990476.00 90445 1000000
December 24 1001006 997446.00 3560
January 25 800000
995421 981763.67 13657.3333333
February 26 903379 966458.83 63079.8333333 600000
March 27 910889 954300.17 43411.1666667
April 28 969291 946669.50 22621.5 400000
May 29 1020271 966709.50 53561.5
June 30 1123517 987128.00 136389 200000
2011
July 31 1244100 1028574.50 215525.5
0
August 32 1088437 1059417.50 29019.5
September 33 1130002 1095936.33 34065.6666667
October 34 1144220 1125091.17 19128.8333333
November 35 1096256 1137755.33 41499.3333333
December 36 1154680 1142949.17 11730.8333333
January 37 1185039 1133105.67 51933.3333333
February 38 978880 1114846.17 135966.166667
March 39 1048258 1101222.17 52964.1666667
2012
April 40 1083728 1091140.17 7412.16666667
2012

May 41 1109844 1093404.83 16439.1666667


June 42 1206306 1102009.17 104296.833333
SUM 2181917.16667
MAD 58970.7342342
Moving Average
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
Column D
600000
Column E
400000
200000
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 3 1 33 3 5 37 3 9 41

Data Point

Column D
Column E