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2009 2010

Bulan
datang berangkat transit total datang berangkat transit total
January 343708 365939 15725 725372 390318 432203 12154 834675
February 294358 290852 12416 597626 380969 402286 11653 794908
March 347650 337323 12017 696990 411254 397774 12093 821121
April 359531 341267 11279 712077 411318 419165 8114 838597
May 390352 394727 7792 792871 439522 443738 7754 891014
June 414109 394260 9959 818328 479934 471253 7999 959186
July 476465 457941 11290 945696 545506 533185 10824 1089515
August 441885 471026 9037 921948 473271 514281 7656 995208
September 417901 402032 9572 829505 489327 486816 7698 983841
October 431464 442496 9759 883719 494828 512537 7710 1015075
November 394857 400025 10662 805544 437774 452154 10103 900031
December 463952 413488 14598 892038 520658 466288 14060 1001006
2011 2012
datang berangkat transit total datang berangkat transit total
467462 516420 11539 995421 558126 615324 11589 1185039
446581 441753 15045 903379 485041 481252 12587 978880
450227 450637 10025 910889 523649 510243 14366 1048258
486123 473213 9955 969291 532588 538208 12932 1083728
500022 509823 10426 1020271 548719 548321 12804 1109844
567955 542456 13106 1123517 609684 582267 14355 1206306
617236 613487 13377 1244100 0
532954 543620 11863 1088437 0
555703 562271 12028 1130002 0
554388 578059 11773 1144220 0
540013 545244 10999 1096256 0
592733 548245 13702 1154680 0
geometri eksponensial
1 432203 542155.4 549437.696516362
700000
2 402286 504627.6 511405.735686197
3 397774 498967.7 505669.859519947
600000
Chart T
4 419165 525800.6 532863.150094472
5 443738 556624.9 564101.55546532
500000
6 471253 591139.8 599079.975836413
400000

300000

200000

100000

0
0 1 2

2010 2011 MODEL 2011 LAPANGAN


Bulan
datang berangkat transit total Po (1+i)^n F datang
January 390318 432203 12154 834675 834675 1.12 934836 467462
February 380969 402286 11653 794908 794908 1.12 890297 446581
March 411254 397774 12093 821121 821121 1.12 919655.5 450227
April 411318 419165 8114 838597 838597 1.12 939228.6 486123
May 439522 443738 7754 891014 891014 1.12 997935.7 500022
June 479934 471253 7999 959186 959186 1.12 1074288 567955
July 545506 533185 10824 1089515 1089515 1.12 1220257 617236
August 473271 514281 7656 995208 995208 1.12 1114633 532954
September 489327 486816 7698 983841 983841 1.12 1101902 555703
October 494828 512537 7710 1015075 1015075 1.12 1136884 554388
November 437774 452154 10103 900031 900031 1.12 1008035 540013
December 520658 466288 14060 1001006 1001006 1.12 1121127 592733
Chart Title

Chart Title

an

2011
2010
2009
2008
2007

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2011 LAPANGAN
berangkat transit A MAD
516420 11539 995421 5048.75
441753 15045 903379 1090.17
450637 10025 910889 -730.543
473213 9955 969291 2505.197
509823 10426 1020271 1861.277
542456 13106 1123517 4102.39
613487 13377 1244100 1986.933
543620 11863 1088437 -2183
562271 12028 1130002 2341.673
578059 11773 1144220 611.3333
545244 10999 1096256 7351.773
548245 13702 1154680 2796.107
AVERAGE 2231.839
Banyaknya Pesawat
Banyaknya Penumpang
Terbang
Berangk Sekitar Sekitar
Tiba Berangkat Tiba total selisih i
at Bali Bali
51 811 51 694 422 6307201 6296650 143804 12747655 0.126943
42 190 42 109 707 5519392 5492085 117955 11129432 0.135137
38 031 38 001 766 4717250 4773780 134403 9625433 0.119614
34 324 34 231 1 158 4161314 4188000 124787 8474101 0.108779
30 769 30 643 1 162 3735019 3732506 84773 7552298 0.490472 0.122618

1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
BERANGKAT i AVG i
6307201 0.124906
5519392 0.145332
4717250 0.117852
4161314 0.102442
3735019 0.490532 0.122633

MODEL
LAPANGAN

12 14
a = 727651.6
b = 10605.8 2.42822E+11

Y prediksi
year t Y (juta) SSE SSPE
(juta)
Jan-09 1 725372 738257.4497 166034812.7 228.896087 725372
Feb-09 2 597626 748863.2524 22872706509 38272.6095 597626 1400000
Mar-09 3 696990 759469.0551 3903632328 5600.70062 696990
Apr-09 4 712077 770074.8578 3363751515 4723.85924 712077 1200000
May-09 5 792871 780680.6606 148604375.2 187.425666 792871
Jun-09 6 818328 791286.4633 731244706.6 893.583877 818328 1000000
Jul-09 7 945696 801892.266 20679513901 21866.9783 945696
Aug-09 8 921948 812498.0688 11979287446 12993.4524 921948 800000

Sep-09 9 829505 823103.8715 40974446.02 49.3962617 829505


600000
Oct-09 10 883719 833709.6742 2500932663 2830.00893 883719
Nov-09 11 805544 844315.477 1503227426 1866.10219 805544
400000
Dec-09 12 892038 854921.2797 1377650926 1544.38592 892038
Jan-10 13 834675 865527.0824 951850990.3 1140.38517 834675
200000
Feb-10 14 794908 876132.8852 6597481969 8299.67992 794908
Mar-10 15 821121 886738.6879 4305680964 5243.66197 821121 0
Apr-10 16 838597 897344.4906 3451267655 4115.52588 838597 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jul -09

May-10 17 891014 907950.2934 286838032.6 321.923149 891014


Jun-10 18 959186 918556.0961 1650789092 1721.03126 959186
Jul-10 19 1089515 929161.8988 25713117058 23600.5168 1089515
Aug-10 20 995208 939767.7016 3073626692 3088.42643 995208
Sep-10 21 983841 950373.5043 1120073270 1138.4698 983841
Oct-10 22 1015075 960979.307 2926344000 2882.88452 1015075
Nov-10 23 900031 971585.1097 5119990621 5688.68252 900031
Dec-10 24 1001006 982190.9125 354007518.5 353.651745 1001006
Jan-11 25 995421 992796.7152 6886870.673 6.91855072 995421
Feb-11 26 903379 1003402.518 10004704141 11074.7584 903379
Mar-11 27 910889 1014008.321 10633594296 11673.864 910889
Apr-11 28 969291 1024614.123 3060647983 3157.61519 969291
May-11 29 1020271 1035219.926 223470392.5 219.030427 1020271
Jun-11 30 1123517 1045825.729 6035933611 5372.35628 1123517
Jul-11 31 1244100 1056431.532 35219454033 28309.1826 1244100
Aug-11 32 1088437 1067037.334 457945690.9 420.736975 1088437
Sep-11 33 1130002 1077643.137 2741450528 2426.05812 1130002
Oct-11 34 1144220 1088248.94 3132759581 2737.89969 1144220
Nov-11 35 1096256 1098854.743 6753462.696 6.16047957 1096256
Dec-11 36 1154680 1109460.545 2044799088 1770.87945 1154680
Jan-12 37 1185039 1120066.348 4221445510 3562.28403 1185039
Feb-12 38 978880 1130672.151 23040857019 23537.9791 978880
Mar-12 39 1048258 1141277.953 8652711739 8254.37224 1048258
Apr-12 40 1083728 1151883.756 4645207100 4286.32194 1083728
May-12 41 1109844 1162489.559 2771554873 2497.24725 1109844
Jun-12 42 1206306 1173095.362 1102946500 914.317346 1206306
Chart Title
1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
Jun-08 Dec-08 Jul -09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Oct-12
12 month moving two year moving
average total average total

january Jan-09 1 725372


february Feb-09 2 597626
march Mar-09 3 696990
april Apr-09 4 712077
may May-09 5 792871
june Jun-09 6 818328
2000
july Jul-09 7 945696 9621714 19352731
august Aug-09 8 921948 9731017 19659316
september Sep-09 9 829505 9928299 19980729
october Oct-09 10 883719 10052430 20231380
november Nov-09 11 805544 10178950 20456043
december Dec-09 12 892038 10277093 20695044
january Jan-10 13 834675 10417951 20979721
february Feb-10 14 794908 10561770 21196800
march Mar-10 15 821121 10635030 21424396
april Apr-10 16 838597 10789366 21710088
may May-10 17 891014 10920722 21935931
june Jun-10 18 959186 11015209 22139386
2001
july Jul-10 19 1089515 11124177
august Aug-10 20 995208
september Sep-10 21 983841
october Oct-10 22 1015075
november Nov-10 23 900031
december Dec-10 24 1001006
Jan-11 25 995421
Feb-11 26 903379
Mar-11 27 910889
Apr-11 28 969291
May-11 29 1020271
Jun-11 30 1123517
Jul-11 31 1244100
Aug-11 32 1088437
Sep-11 33 1130002
Oct-11 34 1144220
Nov-11 35 1096256
Dec-11 36 1154680
Jan-12 37 1185039
Feb-12 38 978880
Mar-12 39 1048258
Apr-12 40 1083728
May-12 41 1109844
Jun-12 42 1206306
seasonal
12-month y' Chart Title
index
centered
moving average 940000
920000
f(x) = 10448.7588869464x + 736618.17016317
900000 R² = 0.9981189455
880000
860000
840000
820000
800000
780000
760000
806363.8 1.17 806363.8 740000
6 8 10 12 14 16 18
819138.2 1.13 819138.2
832530.4 1.00 832530.4
842974.2 1.05 842974.2
852335.1 0.95 852335.1 Chart Title
862293.5 1.03 862293.5 1400000
874155.0 0.95 874155
883200.0 0.90 883200 1200000
892683.2 0.92 892683.2
904587.0 0.93 904587 1000000
913997.1 0.97 913997.1
922474.4 1.04 922474.4 800000
1.17 935149 1096734
1.13 945598 1064280 600000
1.00 956047 952572.8
1.05 966496 1013211 400000
0.95 976945 923313.1
1.03 987394 1021454 200000
0.95 997843 952776.8
0.90 1008292 907494.8 0
Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jul -09 Oct-09 Jan-10
0.92 1018741 937073.4
0.93 1029190 954110.2
0.97 1039639 1013497
1.04 1050088 1091878
1.17 1060537 1243788
1.13 1070986 1205405
1.00 1081435 1077505
1.05 1091884 1144660
0.95 1102333 1041818
1.03 1112782 1151167
0.95 1123231 1072502
0.90 1133680 1020348
0.92 1144129 1052410
0.93 1154578 1070351
0.97 1165027 1135732
1.04 1175476 1222256
hart Title

88869464x + 736618.17016317
455

12 14 16 18 20

Chart Title

9 Jul -09 Oct-09 Jan-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11


Jan-09 1 725372 725372
Feb-09 2 597626 661499
Mar-09 3 696990 629562.5
Apr-09 4 712077 652038.3
May-09 5 792871 667048
Jun-09 6 818328 692212.6
Jul-09 7 945696 713231.8
Aug-09 8 921948 746441
Sep-09 9 829505 768379.4
Oct-09 10 883719 775171.1
Nov-09 11 805544 786025.9
Dec-09 12 892038 787800.3
Jan-10 13 834675 796486.8
Feb-10 14 794908 799424.3
Mar-10 15 821121 799101.7
Apr-10 16 838597 800569.7
May-10 17 891014 802946.4
Jun-10 18 959186 808126.8
Jul-10 19 1089515 816519
Aug-10 20 995208 830887.2
Sep-10 21 983841 839103.3
Oct-10 22 1015075 845995.5
Nov-10 23 900031 853681
Dec-10 24 1001006 855696.2
Jan-11 25 995421 861750.8
Feb-11 26 903379 867097.6
Mar-11 27 910889 868493
Apr-11 28 969291 870063.2
May-11 29 1020271 873607.1
Jun-11 30 1123517 878664.4
Jul-11 31 1244100 886826.2
Aug-11 32 1088437 898351.2
Sep-11 33 1130002 904291.3
Oct-11 34 1144220 911131.1
Nov-11 35 1096256 917986.6
Dec-11 36 1154680 923080
Jan-12 37 1185039 929513.4
Feb-12 38 978880 936419.5
Mar-12 39 1048258 937536.8
Apr-12 40 1083728 940375.8
May-12 41 1109844 943959.7
Jun-12 42 1206306 948005.6
Jan-09 1 725372 725372
Feb-09 2 597626 661499
Mar-09 3 696990 629562.5
Apr-09 4 712077 652038.3
May-09 5 792871 667048
Jun-09 6 818328 692212.6
1400000
Jul-09 7 945696 713231.8
Aug-09 8 921948 746441
1200000
Sep-09 9 829505 768379.4
Oct-09 10 883719 775171.1 1000000
Nov-09 11 805544 786025.9

number of passenger
Dec-09 12 892038 787800.3 800000
Jan-10 13 834675 796486.8
Feb-10 14 794908 799424.3 600000
Mar-10 15 821121 799101.7
Apr-10 16 838597 800569.7 400000
May-10 17 891014 802946.4
Jun-10 18 959186 808126.8 200000
Jul-10 19 1089515 816519
Aug-10 20 995208 830887.2 0
Jun-08 Dec-08 Jul -09 Jan-10
Sep-10 21 983841 839103.3
Oct-10 22 1015075 845995.5
Nov-10 23 900031 853681
Dec-10 24 1001006 855696.2
Jan-11 25 995421 861750.8
Feb-11 26 903379 867097.6
Mar-11 27 910889 868493
Apr-11 28 969291 870063.2
May-11 29 1020271 873607.1
Jun-11 30 1123517 878664.4
Jul-11 31 1244100 886826.2
Aug-11 32 1088437 898351.2
Sep-11 33 1130002 904291.3
Oct-11 34 1144220 911131.1
Nov-11 35 1096256 917986.6
Dec-11 36 1154680 923080
Jan-12 37 1185039 929513.4
Feb-12 38 978880 936419.5
Mar-12 39 1048258 937536.8
Apr-12 40 1083728 940375.8
May-12 41 1109844 943959.7
Jun-12 42 1206306 948005.6
Chart Title

a ctual
forecast

Dec-08 Jul -09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Oct-12

month
Jan-09 1 725372 #N/A #N/A
Feb-09 2 597626 #N/A #N/A
Mar-09 3 696990 673329.3 #N/A Moving A
Apr-09 4 712077 668897.7 #N/A 1400000
May-09 5 792871 733979.3 44318.96
Jun-09 6 818328 774425.3 49193.93 1200000
Jul-09 7 945696 852298.3 68602.23
Aug-09 8 921948 895324 61534.29 1000000
Sep-09 9 829505 899049.7 68964.78
Oct-09 10 883719 878390.7 43103.32 800000
Nov-09 11 805544 839589.3 44810.48

Value
Dec-09 12 892038 860433.7 26995.74 600000
Jan-10 13 834675 844085.7 27364.69
Feb-10 14 794908 840540.3 32504.89 400000
Mar-10 15 821121 816901.3 27010.34
Apr-10 16 838597 818208.7 28958.59 200000
May-10 17 891014 850244 26430.3
Jun-10 18 959186 896265.7 44858.46 0
Jul-10 19 1089515 979905 76671.41 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 13 15 17 1 9 21
Aug-10 20 995208 1014636 73825.88
Sep-10 21 983841 1022855 68102.57 Data Point
Oct-10 22 1015075 998041.3 27016.49
Nov-10 23 900031 966315.7 45482.12
Dec-10 24 1001006 972037.3 42906.82
Jan-11 25 995421 965486 45199.35
Feb-11 26 903379 966602 43712.83
Mar-11 27 910889 936563 43020.95
Apr-11 28 969291 927853 46091.97
May-11 29 1020271 966817 41767.58
Jun-11 30 1123517 1037693 63087.76
Jul-11 31 1244100 1129296 88323.36
Aug-11 32 1088437 1152018 90532.24
Sep-11 33 1130002 1154180 77043.41
Oct-11 34 1144220 1120886 41519.33
Nov-11 35 1096256 1123493 24972.36
Dec-11 36 1154680 1131719 24586.71
Jan-12 37 1185039 1145325 30801.84
Feb-12 38 978880 1106200 78133.91
Mar-12 39 1048258 1070726 78086.05
Apr-12 40 1083728 1036955 79378.37
May-12 41 1109844 1080610 34385.58
Jun-12 42 1206306 1133293 52830.72
Moving Average

Actual
Forecast

7 9 1 1 13 15 17 1 9 21 23 2 5 27 29 31 3 3 35 37 3 9 41

Data Point
11P
alpha = 0.7404311372
2.55125E+11

Forecast SSE
Jan-09 January 725372 725372 0 1400000
Feb-09 February 597626 725372 16319040516
Mar-09 March 696990 630784.88394 4383117392 1200000
Apr-09 April 712077 679805.21332 1041468216
May-09 May 792871 703700.24903 7951422828 1000000
Jun-09 June 818328 769725.04958 2362246790
2009
Jul-09 July 945696 805712.18743 19595467781 800000
Aug-09 August 921948 909360.56097 158443621.4
Sep-09 September 829505 918680.69277 7952304180 600000
Oct-09 October 883719 852652.23316 965144002.1
Nov-09 November 805544 875655.03466 4915557181 400000
Dec-09 December 892038 823742.64153 4664255988
Jan-10 January 834675 874310.65147 1570984868 200000
Feb-10 February 794908 844963.18098 2505521143
Mar-10 March 821121 807900.7664 174774576.4 0
Jun-08 Dec-08
Apr-10 April 838597 817689.439 437126107
May-10 May 891014 833170.04817 3345922764
Jun-10 June 959186 875999.51121 6919991918
2010
Jul-10 July 1089515 937593.37771 23080179320
Aug-10 August 995208 1050080.8773 3011032660
Sep-10 September 983841 1009451.2904 655886971.8
Oct-10 October 1015075 990488.63394 604489396
Nov-10 November 900031 1008693.1449 11807461739
Dec-10 December 1001006 928236.30938 5295427873
Jan-11 January 995421 982117.25416 176989653.3
Feb-11 February 903379 991967.76182 7847968721
Mar-11 March 910889 926373.88416 239781637.4
Apr-11 April 969291 914908.39377 2957467860
May-11 May 1020271 955174.96875 4237493285
Jun-11 June 1123517 1003374.0972 14434317094
2011
Jul-11 July 1244100 1092331.6434 23033634080
Aug-11 August 1088437 1204705.6603 13518401359
Sep-11 September 1130002 1118616.7239 129624511.4
Oct-11 October 1144220 1127046.7368 294920967.7
Nov-11 November 1096256 1139762.3556 1892802979
Dec-11 December 1154680 1107548.8952 2221341035
Jan-12 January 1185039 1142446.2327 1814143823
Feb-12 February 978880 1173983.2438 38065275757
Mar-12 March 1048258 1029522.7271 351010449.7
Apr-12 April 1083728 1043394.9065 1626758429

2012
May-12 May 1109844 1073258.7848 1338477972
Jun-12 June 1206306 1100347.6173 11227178865
2012
Jul-10 July
Aug-10 August
Oct-10 September
Oct-10 October
Nov-10 November
Dec-10 December
Chart Title
1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
Jun-08 Dec-08 Jul -09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Oct-12
Jan-09 1 725372 #N/A #N/A
Feb-09 2 597626 725372 #N/A
Mar-09 3 696990 635949.8 #N/A Exponential
Apr-09 4 712077 678677.9 #N/A 1400000
May-09 5 792871 702057.3 83985.01
Jun-09 6 818328 765626.9 66051.83 1200000
Jul-09 7 945696 802517.7 63613.51
Aug-09 8 921948 902742.5 102509.5 1000000
Sep-09 9 829505 916186.3 88781.18
800000
Oct-09 10 883719 855509.4 97266.89

Value
Nov-09 11 805544 875256.1 53784.41 600000
Dec-09 12 892038 826457.6 66255.11
Jan-10 13 834675 872363.9 57608.87 400000
Feb-10 14 794908 845981.7 59388.6
200000
Mar-10 15 821121 810230.1 52693.31
Apr-10 16 838597 817853.7 37182.36 0
May-10 17 891014 832374 32441.82 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5 17 19 21
Jun-10 18 959186 873422 36457.93
Jul-10 19 1089515 933456.8 61167.51 Data Point
Aug-10 20 995208 1042698 108240.9
Sep-10 21 983841 1009455 106403.1
Oct-10 22 1015075 991525.2 95333.6
Nov-10 23 900031 1008010 33989.81
Dec-10 24 1001006 932424.7 65498.45
Jan-11 25 995421 980431.6 75094.3
Feb-11 26 903379 990924.2 74358.48
Mar-11 27 910889 929642.6 64787.43
Apr-11 28 969291 916515.1 52410.36
May-11 29 1020271 953458.2 60003.21
Jun-11 30 1123517 1000227 50335.35
Jul-11 31 1244100 1086530 86505.55
Aug-11 32 1088437 1196829 121782.1
Sep-11 33 1130002 1120955 131374.1
Oct-11 34 1144220 1127288 110542.6
Nov-11 35 1096256 1139140 63554.14
Dec-11 36 1154680 1109121 27126.99
Jan-12 37 1185039 1141012 37422.64
Feb-12 38 978880 1171831 44170.14
Mar-12 39 1048258 1036765 117251.9
Apr-12 40 1083728 1044810 114456
May-12 41 1109844 1072053 113837.3
Jun-12 42 1206306 1098507 32014.91
Exponential Smoothing

Actual
Forecast

7 9 1 1 1 3 1 5 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 3 3 3 5 3 7 3 9 4 1

Data Point
Jan-09 1 725372
Feb-09 2 597626 725372
Mar-09 3 696990 469880
Apr-09 4 712077 796354
Chart
May-09 5 792871 727164
Jun-09 6 818328 873665 1600000
Jul-09 7 945696 843785 1400000
Aug-09 8 921948 1073064
1200000
Sep-09 9 829505 898200
Oct-09 10 883719 737062 1000000

Axis Title
Nov-09 11 805544 937933
800000
Dec-09 12 892038 727369
Jan-10 13 834675 978532 600000
Feb-10 14 794908 777312 400000
Mar-10 15 821121 755141
200000
Apr-10 16 838597 847334
May-10 17 891014 856073 0
Jun-08 Dec-08 Jul -09 Jan-10 Aug-10
Jun-10 18 959186 943431
Jul-10 19 1089515 1027358 Axis Title
Aug-10 20 995208 1219844
Sep-10 21 983841 900901
Oct-10 22 1015075 972474
Nov-10 23 900031 1046309
Dec-10 24 1001006 784987
Jan-11 25 995421 1101981
Feb-11 26 903379 989836
Mar-11 27 910889 811337
Apr-11 28 969291 918399
May-11 29 1020271 1027693
Jun-11 30 1123517 1071251
Jul-11 31 1244100 1226763
Aug-11 32 1088437 1364683
Sep-11 33 1130002 932774
Oct-11 34 1144220 1171567
Nov-11 35 1096256 1158438
Dec-11 36 1154680 1048292
Jan-12 37 1185039 1213104
Feb-12 38 978880 1215398
Mar-12 39 1048258 772721
Apr-12 40 1083728 1117636
May-12 41 1109844 1119198
Jun-12 42 1206306 1135960
Chart Title

actua l
foreca st

ec-08 Jul -09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Oct-12


Axis Title