Developing Trends of Renewable Energy at TVCA On 20160511

Developing Trends of Renewable Energies
麥斯管理顧問有限公司
Maxwell Chen 陳世芳
Chief Executive Officer
An Industry, Business, and Investment Architect
2016創投學苑-創投經理人課程
2016/05/11
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential

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• Content in this presentation is for reference only and should not be a basis for any investment or
business decision making. Maxwell Venture Service LLC assumes no liability.
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential 2

Introduction of Maxwell Chen
• Education：
2002~2004：M.S., Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University
1996~2000：B.S., Electronic Engineering, National Chiao Tung University
• Venture Capital Experience (since 2004)：
(1) Sunsino Venture Capital Group, (2) Vertex Venture Holdings, a Temasek
Holdings company.(3) C Squared Capital, (4)Waterland Venture Capital, a
Waterland Financial Holdings company.(5) Sasson Capital, a MTI company.
• Board Director：
2015/08~now：CEO at Maxwell Venture Service LLC. (麥斯管理顧問有限公司)
2015/02~now：Member of the Supervisory Board at uSenlight Inc. (佑勝光電)
2014/05~now：Member of the Supervisory Board at Dexatek Technology (海峽數
碼)
• Successful Exit Investment (19 cases)：
穩懋半導體(WIN Semiconductor) 、創意電子(Global Unichip) 、光環科技(TrueLight) 、上詮光纖
(FOCI) 、隆達電子(Lextar Electronics)、晶宏半導體(UltraChip)、韋僑科技(Securitag Assembly Group)、
全智科技(Giga Solution) 、笙泉科技(Megawin Technology)。聯銓科技(EPITECH )、元砷光電(SOUTH
EPITAXY) 、聯鈞光電(eLaser)、前鼎光電(APAC Opto Electronics) 、奇力光電(Chi Mei Lighting
Technology)、興能高科技(SYNergy ScienTech)、星通資訊(Loop Telecom) 、光頡科技(Viking Tech)、
高平磊晶(Kopin Taiwan)、聯勝光電(High Power Opto)。

Investment Performance in 2014
Avg. Unit Avg. Unit Selling First buying Last Selling

Company Cost Price date Date ROI XIRR
TW.3141 Ultrachip -
first buy 10 18.53 2010/11/22 2014/3/17 85% 20%
TW.3141 UltraChip - 2013/7/9 2014/3/20

second buy 10.48 18.17 73% 122%
2014/3/21 2014/4/15
TW.3363 FOCI 31.99 44.00 37% 9805%
TW.6417 SAG - first

buy 13.84 27.38 2014/1/6 2014/9/19 97% 216%
TW.6417 SAG - second

buy 19.06 28.90 2014/6/23 2014/9/17 51% 476%
2014/1/8 2014/2/21
TW.3025 Loop Com. 12.00 13.70 12% 190%
Synergy ScienTech
Corp. 8.80 15.00 2014/1/18 2014/3/15 83% 4967%

Business of Maxwell Venture Service LLC
• Venture Service：
a new business model which combines venture capital and business incubation/accelerator.
A venture service firm provides services and integrates cross-industry resources to help a single
company to growth in multiple industries and to play as a key player. It helps to strengthen a
client’s inside value chain and outside supply chain.
The first venture service theory is from Maxwell’s MBA thesis in 2004. “The Venture
Creation Services - The Convergence of Venture Capital and Business Incubation.”,
National Chiao-Tung University, Institute of Management of Technology
• Our Services：
Omni-Industry Analysis (全方位產業分析)
Technology Foresight & Forecast (技術前瞻與預測)
Strategic Alliance ＆ Business Development (策略聯盟與企業發展)
Fund Raising Implementation
Market Foresight & Forecast
Building a Strong Team
Strategic Planning
Operation of Board/Shareholders Meeting & Corporate Governance
Financial Planning
Managing Family Investment Fund

Evolution o f Venture Service
accelerator
Source：陳世芳(2004)，「創業服務－創業投資與企業育成之聚合」，國立交通大學，科技管理碩士學位論文；Revised in 2005

Omni-industry Analysis & Proactive Investment
• Omni-industry Analysis： (http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/)

• 離岸風力發電(Offshore Wind Power)/海底電纜(Submarine Cable)
• 物聯網(IoT)通訊系統(IoT Communication Systems)
• 超級智慧電網 (Super Smart Grid)/數位電源控制(Digital Power Control)
• 微機電/半導體/IC設計/IP設計 (MEMS/Semiconductor/IC Design/IP Design)
• 電動車(EV)/電動機車(E-scooter)/電動腳踏車(E-bike)/能源服務(Energy Service)
• 醫療設備(Medical Equipment)/醫療感測器(Medical Sensors)
• 生質能(Biomass)/再生能源(Renewable Energies)/石油與天然(頁岩)氣(Oil & Natural/Shale
Gas)
• 新材料(New Materials)/穿戴式電子(Wearable Electronics)
• 科技農漁業(Technology Agriculture & Fisheries)
• 水資源(Water Resources)
• 國際連鎖企業(International Chain Enterprise)/社會企業(Social Enterprise)/媒體與網路
(Media & Internet)/文創產業(Cultural Enterprise)
• 智慧型機器人(Intelligent Robot)/航太(Aerospace)/精密機械(Precision Machinery)
• Proactive Investment。

Outline
• Industry Analysis as a Venture Capitalist
• A Smart Energy/Power Era
CCS is expensive
Do not Invest CO2 Price/Emission Allowance
Nuclear Power is not as Cheap as Claimed
Very High Subsidies of Nuclear Power
32.97~55.07% Chance of a Reactor Meltdown if Year of Operations >40 Years
• Renewable Energies
• Wind Power
Small Wind Turbine was Dead since 2005
New “Electricity Formula (電價公式)” asked all electricity consumers to pay the FIT subsidies.
Ship Channel Problems
• Solar PV Power
Solar PV should replace OCGT/Light Diesel Oil Power first, and then Fuel Oil Power
• Geothermal Power
Earthquake Power Plant（地震發電廠）, Comprising Water Injection Well
• Super Smart Grid
Microgrid/Distributed Power is expensive and a niche market
Phase 1 of Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits
A lot of Wind and Solar PV Power Will be Abandoned after 2020 without Grid Upgrade
• Smart Power Dispatch
• Power Grid Storage
• Intersection between Renewable Energies & Financial Industry
• 100% Renewable Energy World by 2050
Industry Analysis as a Venture Capitalist
• An industry is a set of supply chains. An industry comprises a lot of firms,

and a firm may cross multiple industries/supply chains.
How to define an industry? What is the proper resolution of industry analysis?
• We do industry analysis for Profits/Performance/IRR, not for report price.
• We do industry analysis for outstanding post-investment management.
• We monitor the whole supply chain, and engage the global leaders.
How much connections do you have?
Did you put connections in the right places? Scopes & depths.
How often do you gather information? Permanent monitoring?
What is the return path? Direct or indirect?
Signal to Noise Ratio? How to define a noise or a signal?
What is your techniques to analyze huge information/big data?
How do you meet the global leaders? Face to face? Why must they tell you the truth?
• Unfortunately, most VC bosses don’t care about industry analysis. They
don’t know too much about supply chains.
• Please customize an industry analysis for your investment case. You need
not tell everything into details.
Industry Development & Financial Sector
• Financial Sectors support industry development in the ecosystems.
(Financial
Sectors)
(Operators,
Developers)
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
INVESTMENT 2016".

My Architecture of Industry Analysis
How do you give weights? How do you define the needed depths of an industry analysis?
Technology Environment
Political & Legal Environment Marco Economies
Threat of
Substitution
Supplier’s Power Competitive Rivalry Buyer’s Power
Complementary
Threat of Potential Factors
Competitors
Population Structure Social Environment

Source: Michael Porter, Ghemawa, Hill & Jones, Maxwell, 2006
What Can a VC do in the Global Renewable Energy Investment Context?
• VC funds must cooperate with project finance/M&A funds.

• Encourage renewable power developers go public.
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016".
Asset Finance Plays a Key Role in Renewable Energy Investment
• New Investment of VC：＄1.3B, 0.45%
• Transactions of VC：＄1.3B, 0.34%
• Transactions ($380B) = New Investment ($285.9B) + M&A/Buy-out ($94B)

Asset Finance & Renewable Power

Invest in Wind Power, not Solar PV

Solar PV’s High Growth Comes from Low Entry Barriers
*Small distributed capacity (SDC) of Solar PV is under 1MW.

(typically rooftop and small ground-mounted solar PV
installations.)
*This is a kind of distributed power generation if the power is
consumed in the distribution grid without transmission grid.
*Small distributed capacity and distributed power generation are
highly correlated with government policies.

The World’s Lowest System Price of Solar PV in Germany Doesn’t Help the Market.
• Subsidy curtailment will hit the UK market in 2016, just as it dampened demand
in Germany in 2015, sending small distributed capacity investment there down
57%.
• Japan remains by far the largest small distributed power market in the world,
thanks to still-generous feed-in tariffs and falling PV system costs.

LCOE Comparison (1:32.43)
• In late 2015, onshore wind is $83/MWh (NT$2.69/KWh), solar PV is $122/MWh

(NT$3.96/KWh), offshore wind is $174/MWh (NT$5.64/KWh), and solar
thermal/Parabolic trough with storage is $275/MWh (NT$8.92/KWh).
• IEA-STSAP & IRENA showed onshore wind power in 2014 is US$0.06-0.12/KWh
(NT$1.95-3.89/KWh), and offshore wind power with under 5MW turbines is US$0.1-
0.21/KWh (NT$3.24-6.81/KWh).
• The first offshore wind farm that used 6MW turbines is Westermost Rough which
was inaugurated on July 1st 2015.
• Using 6-8MW turbines and locating at a high-wind place, the LCOE of offshore
wind power is under NT$3/KWh. (Taipower’s average cost is NT$2.74/KWh)
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy

Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2016". Source: IEA-ETSAP, IRENA (2016), "Wind Power Technology Brief",

Big Investment Drop in High Solar PV Countries, Japan & Germany
• Japan’s largest source of new investment in renewable comes from SDC, small distributed
capacity/Solar PV. Germany has a -46% drop due to reduction of Solar PV.
• Japan’s residential electricity price is around NT$10.11~11.60/KWh. (1:0.3028). 3~4 times of
Taiwan’s price. FIT price of Solar PV under 10KW in Japan 2012 is NT$9.39-11.51/KWh.
• High ratio of nuclear power has made Japan paid a lot in nuclear disaster and high solar PV price.
• If Taiwan has high penetration of SDC, we will have double to triple electricity price soon or later.

Wind Power Leads Global Renewable Power Investment by 2040
Source: IEA, 2015

Power Mix Transformation Has Begun
17%
16%
53%
6%
9%
Renewable Power Generation by Technology

Energy versus Power/Electricity
• “Energy” is not equal to “Power”. Power is a secondary energy.

• We will focus on “Renewable Power” in the coming slides.
Source: IPCC (2011), Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

Oil is seldom to generate power.
• Oil price has very small impacts on renewable power.

• If renewable power becomes “new baseload” and the world has a super
smart grid/energy IoT, the use of natural gas power (OCGT+CCGT) will
decline.
Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy Roadmap, RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS: USA“ .
Carbon Capture Storage is Expensive
Source: US EIA

Mix of a Power System
• Fossil-fuels power includes coal, natural gas, and oil.

• A smart power system is rising.
• Other rare renewable power includes wave, tidal…etc.
Coal, Natural Gas, Oil, Nuclear

Stupid Power System
Smart
Power
System
Source: REN21 (2014), "RENEWABLES 2014 - Global Status Report“ & Maxwell Venture Service LLC (2016).
US Average Historical Electricity Prices & Grid Losses

Nuclear Power is Low-carbon, but not Clean and Cheap
• Wind power has great potential to replace nuclear power as a new baseload.
Lower CO2 emission,
Lower LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity/Energy,
Lower SCOE (Social Cost of Electricity).
• Cheap LCOE of coal and nuclear power today comes from tomorrow’s air ,
water, and food pollution. Remember “Fukushima nuclear disaster” and
“PM 2.5 in China”.
Source: NEA (2012), "Nuclear Energy and Renewables - System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems".
Do not Invest CO2 Price/Emission Allowance
Source：Bernard Caillaud, Gabrielle Demange (2015), "Joint design of emission tax and trading systems", http://voxeu.org/article/joint-design-emission-tax-and-trading-systems

Future Energy System

Primary and Final Energy Demand in Taiwan 2012

Power Capacity by 2030
• Based on BNEF’s forecast, global power capacity will grow to 10,569GW by

2030.
• Wind power will have largest generations because of its average capacity
factor is 2 to 3 times than Solar PV.
Generation of Wind over Solar PV: 12% * 2 ~ 3 times / 18% = 1.33 ~ 2 times
What is important to you if you’re the CEO of Taipower?
Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy

Source: BNEF (2014), "Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) 2030 Market Outlook".
Roadmap, RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS: USA“ .
Renewable Energy Mix by 2050
Source：IRENA (2016), "REmap: Roadmap for A Renewable Energy Future, 2016 Edition", http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=1691

Be Careful of Power-bias in Taiwan
• Power-bias in Taiwan：Some people mentioned German successful

experiences in renewable power, but they highly recommend developing
Solar PV in Taiwan. In fact, wind power is the largest power source in
Germany. German government is decreasing the EEG/FIT of solar PV due
to expensive cost.
• They won’t tell you the average annual generation of Solar PV in Germany
is around 900 ~ 1100 KWh/KWp. (Taiwan is around 1250 KWh/KWp.)

Technical Potential Dominates the Future of Renewable Power
• Renewable power must consider local conditions/technical potential.

Solar PV and Biopower should not harm food supplies.
Utility-scale Solar PV has lower LCOE and higher generation than root-top.
Plenty of idle industrial land in Taiwan.
Food supply is also a national security issue. Taiwan’s food supply is under 35%.
EGS will be replaced by CEEG because most people will reject induced earthquakes.
I predict EGS will fail soon or later. We should put more attentions on CEEG.
Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy Roadmap, RENEWABLE ENERGY PROSPECTS: USA“ .
Enterprises are Key Buyers of Green Power.
• US EPA’s Green Power Partnership National Top 100 (Released on April

25, 2016)
• Buyers are enterprises, governments, colleagues and universities, K-12
schools…etc.
Taiwan’s suppliers will be asked to use green power by their customers.
1. Intel Corporation 3,107,050,000 100% Technology & Telecom Solar, Wind

2. Microsoft Corporation 2,699,210,000 100% Technology & Telecom Biogas, Biomass, Solar,
Wind
3. Kohl's Department Stores 1,430,381,349 109% Retail Solar, Wind
4. Cisco Systems, Inc. 1,085,086,742 97% Technology & Telecom Solar, Wind
5. Google Inc. 1,061,619,944 36% Technology & Telecom Biogas, Solar, Wind
6. Apple Inc. 1,021,607,000 100% Technology & Telecom Biogas, Biomass,
Geothermal, Small-hydro,
Solar, Wind
7. Starbucks (company- 970,920,339 100% Restaurants & Cafes Wind
owned cafe retail stores)
8. City of Houston, TX 951,799,375 80% Govt. (Local, Municipal) Solar, Wind
9. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 826,343,726 4% Retail Biogas, Solar, Wind
10. U.S. Department of 810,030,662 15% Govt. (Federal) Biogas, Biomass, Small-
Energy hydro, Solar, Wind
Source: https://www.epa.gov/greenpower/green-power-partnership-national-top-100
Investment Changes Direction from Generation to Super Smart Grid
• LCOE of renewable power is competing with fossil-fuel and nuclear power.

• Abandoned wind power and solar power in China
• Super Smart Grid = Transmission Grid + Distribution Grid + IoT
Super Grid = Transmission Grid + IoT
Smart Grid = Distribution Grid + IoT
It’s a world of energy IoT.
• Microgrid will keep in a stage of micro-scale for decades.

Energy Sector Project Risk Factors
• Energy sector is a chartered industry. Policies and regulations dominate most of

investment risk factors.
• KMT’s offshore wind power plan：4GW by 2030
• A new plan after DPP wined the president election：10GW by 2030
• ITRI Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories changed their view all the
time and serve for politicians.
In 2011, ITRI GEERL said there are 8,326.2 Km2 (57GW) for offshore wind power in Taiwan.
Only 6.2GW can be developed.
In 2013, ITRI GEERL said there are 5,640 Km2 for offshore wind power in Taiwan. Only
29.37GW can be developed.
• A VC should have independent views beyond ITRI GEERL.
Source: IRENA (2015), "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014".

Nuclear Power is not as Cheap as Claimed

Nuclear Power is Losing its Market Share in China
Source: Bernard CHABOT, BCCONSULT (2015), "Wind power and nuclear electricity production in China, India, Brazil
and South Africa up to 2014"

Very High Subsidies of Nuclear Power
• The low LCOE of nuclear power comes from invisible government subsides.
Source：European Environment Agency (2016), "Renewable Energy in Europe 2016 - Recent Growth and Knock-on Effects"

Dangerous Extension of Nuclear Power Plants
Source: David Lochbaum (2016), "Nuclear power in the future: risks of a lifetime", published on "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-power-future-risks-lifetime9185

32.97+% Chance of a Reactor Meltdown if Year of Operations >40 Years
Source: David Lochbaum (2016), "Nuclear power in the future: risks of a lifetime", published on "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists", http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-power-future-risks-lifetime9185

The Decline of Nuclear and Coal is Sure
Power Concepts
• Generation：1 TWh (10億度電) ＝ 1 billion KWh

• 8.76TWh/GW per year, if capacity factor is 100%.
1 GW * 8,760 hours * 100% = 8760 GWh = 8.76 TWh
• Capacity Factor：The net capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of its actual output over a
period of time, to its potential output if it were possible for it to operate at fullnameplate
capacity continuously over the same period of time.
Source: IEA (2013), World Energy Outlook Special Report

Global Wind Power 2015

Offshore Wind Power 2015

Global Wind Power Market by 2050
• CAGR from 2000-2050： (1) World：11.66%; (2) Onshore：10.73%; (3)

Offshore：23.71%。
2000-2050 Global Wind Power Cumulative Capacity
5000
4500
2050, 4315GW
Cumulative Capacity (GW)
4000
2050, 2834GW
3500
3000
Crazy Forecast?
2030, 1264GW
2500
2000
2020, 676GW
2020, 46GW
1500 2015, 423GW
1000
2030, 297GW
500 2015, 13GW 2050, 1481GW
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Year
Onshore Cumulative Capacity (GW) Offshore Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Global Cumulative Capacity (GW)
Source: GWEC, EWEA, AWEA, MAKE Consulting, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
World Wind Potentials 250TW@100m
• If wind turbines cover all areas in the world, there is 6,000TW.

• These saturation potentials are >250TW at 100 m globally, approximately
80 TW at 100 m over land plus coastal ocean (nearshore). (1TW=1,000GW)
• 4,315GW/250,000GW = 1.73%; 2,834GW/80,000GW = 3.54%.
• 2015 Global Wind Power Installation：432.883GW/250,000GW = 0.173%
• No need to worry about the weather problems. NO, It’s reasonable.
Source: Mark Z. Jacobson, "Saturation wind power potential and its implications for wind energy", September 25, 2012 vol. 109 no. 39,
PNAS., http://www.pnas.org/content/109/39/15679.abstract

Small Wind Turbine was Dead since 2005

Average LCOE in Good to Excellent Wind Sites & US Wind Power Capacity
Source: Wind Vision:A New Era for Wind Power in the United States, US Department of Energy, 2015

US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, $/MWh
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Regional Effects on LCOE in the US
US$62.5/MWh
(LBNL)
Interior is about
US$48/MWh, 23%
lower than Nationwide
Source: Source: 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, US Department of Energy, August 2015

US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, NT$/KWh
USD/TWD=32.5
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Source of UK Offshore Wind LCOE
• Roughly estimation by Maxwell： (the model doesn’t consider O&M inflation)

2010：150 ₤/MWh (US$227/MWh, NT$7.419/KWh)
2020：85 ₤/MWh (US$139/MWh, NT$4.204/KWh)
2030：55 ₤/MWh (US$83/MWh, NT$2.720/KWh)
2040：35 ₤/MWh (US$53/MWh, NT$1.731/KWh)
2050：25 ₤/MWh (US$38/MWh, NT$1.237/KWh)
Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2020 2023 2030
Crown Estate (₤/MWh) 140 140 140 140 90-100
BVG Associate
(₤/MWh) 110 80
160-
NREL (₤/MWh) 190 150-190 70-110 60-100
EY Associate (₤/MWh) 85
ORE Catapult 136 136 121 121 121 114
(₤/MWh) (Works Completed) (Works Completed) (FID) (FID) (FID) (CfD)
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site A,
Germany, Scenario 2 90 81 68 57
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site B,
Prognos & Fichtner
(₤/MWh), Site C,
Source：Crown Estate, BVG Associate, NREL, EY Associate, ORE Catapult, EWEA; sorting by Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Exchange Rate： GBP/USD=1.51551, GBP/EUR=1.42609391
11% Decline in LCOE in the UK this Year
• Results in 2015 confirmed an 11% decline in LCOE in the UK, ahead of a

predicted cost reduction pathway set out by the Crown Estate.
• Europe accounts for 92% of all offshore wind installations globally.
Growing at a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, the
strong build-up of this emerging industry has resulted in total cumulative
installations topping 10 GW in 2015.
Crown Estate
Estimation

Estimation of Prognos & Fichtner

Asia Manufacturing Effects
• According to IRENA, average LCOE in China & India is around 43.75%

lower than OECD countries.
• We assume the price gaps are around 0% between 2000-2010, 40% to 30%
between 2010-2020, 30% to 20% between 2020-2030, 20% to 10% between
2030-2040, and 10% to 0% between 2040-2050.

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation 8-25% below Average
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation
25% below the average
8% below the average ???

Wind Farm Variation by BVG Association

LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in EU
LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 Exchange Rate

200 GBP：USD 1.51551
GBP：TWD 49.4618146
GBP：EUR 1.42609391
180
2010, ₤150
160 2020(f), ₤85
2030(f), ₤55
140
2040(f), ₤35 2050(f),₤25
2020(f), ₤63
LCOE (₤/MWh)
2010, ₤112
120
100
2030(f), ₤41
80
60 2040(f), ₤26
2010, ₤90 2050(f), ₤19
40
2020(f), ₤60
20 2030(f), ₤44
2040(f), ₤32 2050(f), ₤25
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(f)
2022(f)
2029(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Year
Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain

Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain
Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in Asia, 8% Wind Farm Variation
LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 Exchange Rate

GBP：USD 1.51551
GBP：TWD 49.4618146
GBP：EUR 1.42609391
10.0
2010, NT$7.419 2020(f), NT$4.204 2050(f), NT$1.237
9.0 2030(f), NT$2.720 2040(f), NT$1.731
8.0
LCOE (NT$/KWh)
7.0
2020(f), NT$2.943 2050(f), NT$1.237
2030(f), NT$2.176 2040(f), NT$1.558
6.0 2010, NT$4.452
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 2010, NT$4.114

1.0 2020(f), NT$2.720 2030(f), NT$2.011 2040(f), NT$1.440 2050(f), NT$1.143
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2033(f)
2037(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Year
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain

LCOE Gap between Offshore & Onshore Wind Power by 2050
Offshore Wind LCOE over Onshore Wind LCOE

600%
237~425% in 2015
500%
400%
300%
100~150% by 2050
200%
100%
Due to Wind Farm Variation (25% lower than
average)
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2049(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2050(f)
UK Offshore over US Onshore Asia Offshore&Supply Chain over US Onshore
Optimistic UK Offshore over US Onshore Optimistic Asia Offshore over US Onshore

Taiwan Case (Without Grid Cost)
• Average Electricity Selling Price of Taipower is NT$2.0533/KWh in 2005,

and NT$3.0705 in 2014. CAGR from 2005 to 2014 is 4.57%.
• If we assume 1% CAGR from 2015 to 2050, NT$4.3932/KWh in 2050.
Taiwan Electricity Price & Offshore Wind Power LCOE
10.000
Taiwan Electricity Price or LCOE (NT$/KWh)
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
Cross Point：2017 to 2026
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2026(f)
2032(f)
2038(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2033(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
2050(f)
Year
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain
Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation
Source: Taipower, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Taiwan Case (Considering Grid Cost)
• Grid Cost Assumption：NT$0.8/KWh (Current cost is NT$0.4811/KWh in 2015)

Taiwan Electricity Price & Offshore Wind Power LCOE+Grid Cost
12.000
Taiwan Electricity Price or LCOE (NT$/KWh)
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
Cross Point：2023 to 2030

0.000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017(f)
2033(f)
2050(f)
2015(f)
2016(f)
2018(f)
2019(f)
2020(f)
2021(f)
2022(f)
2023(f)
2024(f)
2025(f)
2026(f)
2027(f)
2028(f)
2029(f)
2030(f)
2031(f)
2032(f)
2034(f)
2035(f)
2036(f)
2037(f)
2038(f)
2039(f)
2040(f)
2041(f)
2042(f)
2043(f)
2044(f)
2045(f)
2046(f)
2047(f)
2048(f)
2049(f)
Year
Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain+Grid Cost

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost
Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation
New “Electricity Formula (電價公式)” asked all electricity consumers to pay the FIT subsidies.
• New “Electricity Formula (電價公式)” asked all electricity consumers to pay the
FIT subsidies.
• DPP government’s 50TWh/year green power will need NT$150 ~ 250B of subsidies.
Subsidies of Solar PV in 2025：17.08 TWh * NT$3/KWh = NT$51B
Subsidies of Offshore Wind Power in 2025：9.99 TWh * NT$0.5/KWh = NT$5B (LCOE
NT$2.37/KWh)
Are you ready to pay ??? “Smart Grid” cost is not included.
2010~2014 Taiwan Feed-In Tariff Analysis
Item Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Onshore Wind 32.2 45.11 93.42 136.63 152.73
Cumullative Capacity (MW) Solar PV 3.53 37.96 125.68 277.1 370.22
Total 35.73 83.07 219.1 413.73 522.95
Onshore Wind 3,323 10,868 23,511 31,335 37,875
Generation (10,000 KWh) Solar PV 151 650 9,259 18,625 40,472
Total 3,474 11,518 32,770 49,960 78,347
Onshore Wind 908 2,703 2,305 2,929 4,516
FIT (NT$10,000) Solar PV 760 4,061 57,563 103,185 202,564
Total 1,668 6,764 59,868 106,114 207,080
Onshore Wind 0.273 0.249 0.098 0.093 0.119
Average FIT in NT$/KWh Solar PV 5.033 6.248 6.217 5.540 5.005
Total 0.480 0.587 1.827 2.124 2.643
Source：MOEA BOE, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015
Source: DPP, 2016
Feed-In Tariff Policy in Germany Has Changed

Factors Driving Cost Reduction - Competitions
Enercon, Suzlon ???
*Alstom was acquired by GE Renewable Energy in 2015.

**Asia players are not clear on the radar map, but Goldwind & Envision are competitive.
Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015

GE Renewable Energy’s Ambitions
• Anders Søe-Jensen, CEO of offshore wind power at GE Renewable Energy,

said GE has 2GW order backlog, the world’s 2nd largest order backlog behind
Siemens.
• Two months field test：99% availability & 80% capacity factor.
• GE acquired Enron Wind in 2002, and Alstom Power’s wind business in 2015.
• Turbine Capacity：The current offshore top range is 6 – 8.5MW, with a possible
ceiling at around 10MW. （Maxwell’s perdition：10MW turbine will be
series production in 2018~2019.）
• Backlog Project List (2,226MW)：Arcadis Ost 1 (348MW), Ø sterild
(6MW), Merkur offshore (396MW), Belwind (6MW), Fécamp (498MW),
Courseulles (450MW), Saint-Nazaire (480MW), Le Carnet (6MW), Block
Island (30MW), VOWTAP (12MW), Taiwan (6MW)
There might be another 1500MW in Taiwan.

Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Technology Improvements
• Larger Turbine：8MW to 50MW.

• Advanced Foundation (50 years)：Twisted Jacket, Active/Passive Floater.
• Availability：95% to 99% (with predictive maintenance O&M Strategy).
• IoT Technologies in wind turbine：500 sensors to 3,000 sensors, data collecting period
from 10 minutes to 40ms, GE’s industrial internet technologies and “Power Up”
technologies with up to 5% generation increase.
• IoT Technologies in wind farm：GE’s “Digital Wind Farm” technologies with 20+%
generation increase.
• Big Data-based wind forecast：day-ahead forecast error from 10% to 3% by IBM/The
Weather Company.
• Siemens’s new transport vehicles： cost savings of 15 to 20% current cost, or
US$0.1/KWh.
• Siemens’s new offshore grid solution：New connection solution can drive the price of
offshore wind power below US$0.1 (NT$3.3)/KWh by 2020, Total cost decrease of 30%,
Transmission capacity increased by 33%, transmission losses decreased by 20%.
• Turbine design life time：from 20~25 years to 40~50 years, around 11% LCOE
reduction per 5 years.
• Other Technologies：Segmented Smart Blades, Direct-Drive, Batteries, ….
Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Economies of Scale
• For a country (local supply chain)： 10GW cumulative installation capacity.

• For an offshore wind turbine manufacturer： 3.5GW/year (BVG Associate)
• For a model of offshore wind turbine：1,000 units.
• For a offshore wind farm：100 turbines.
Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market

Report, September 2015

Wind Farm CAPEX Forecast
Below US$2,000/KW is Onshore Wind CAPEX Area
Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015

Larger Turbine is Cost-Competitive
• EU MFG：
8MW turbine will be US$1,500-2,000/KW
10MW turbine will be around US$1,500/KW
• Goldwind will deliver its 6MW offshore wind turbine in 2018.
China MFG：NT＄1.66~1.85/KWh by 2023. (My Article on Technews)

From Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer & Protector
• Onshore Resource Developer：Onshore Wind Power + Livestock +

Agriculture +Tourism
• Offshore Resource Developer：Offshore wind power + Fish Farming +
Wave Power + Tourism
• It finds that large turbine arrays (300+ GW installed capacity) may
diminish(降低) peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds (最大近表面風速)
by 25–41 m/s (56–92 mph) and storm surge (暴風波浪) by 6–79%.
Source: Mark Z. Jacobson1, Cristina L. Archer, Willett Kempton, "Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines", NATURE
CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 4 | MARCH 2014

Policy Ecosystem
• Green Power Market & Legislation：

Time-of-Use Power Price Market (時間電價)
Power Court (電力專業法院)
Power Arbitration Commission (電力仲裁委員會)
• Capital Market Related to Wind Power：
Wind Power Index (風電指數)
Wind ETF (風電ETF, not including Solar PV and others)
YieldCo (Energy REITs Concept)
Green Bond Market (Usually 70% CAPEX from debt financing)
National Green Fund (UK, Green Investment Bank)
PPA, Futures, Options of Power （電力的現貨、期貨與選擇權）
Other Financial Derivatives
Power Market is a Part of Financial Market

Ship Channel Problems
• 在观测期间(2011/10~2012/09)通行海峡南北的航次规模（3.55万）高达闽台
直航航次总数（7126）的5倍, 因此, 二者是海西水域的交通主流。
• Solution： new design of precautionary area (警戒區) in western Taiwan Strait
• Longer distance & curve channel of ship channel enhances national security. We
have more time to response.
Source: 陈金海, 陆锋, 李明晓. .海上主航迹带边界统计推断与海西航路警戒区布局优化分析[J].地球信息科学学报, 2015,17(10): 1196-1206

Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits
• 28GW offshore wind power in Taiwan

(Phase 1)：39 sites, including 3
demonstration projects, around 3,125 Km2.
• Multi-terminal HVDC Lite Submarine
Grid： (1) Stabilizing the power grid with a
network between Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen,
Matsu; (2) lowering the cost for island power
(NT$1+B loss per year); (3) Transferring
offshore wind power to North Taiwan to
replace land-based transmission line.
• Upgrading Super Smart Grid：
Expanding “Smart Station” capacity alone
the west coast.
New Land-based transmission line to Taipei
City and New Taipei City.
• Maxwell predicted 100+GW offshore wind
power in Taiwan. (published on Technews)
We need a solution for oversupply in winter.
Solar PV is Expensive and the Market is Shrinking in the EU
• Will Taiwan make mistakes of EU again?
Source：European Environment Agency (2016), "Renewable Energy in Europe 2016 - Recent Growth and Knock-on Effects"
EEG’s Big Mistake
• Solar PV in 2010 occupied 38.62%

EEG subsidies and 14.48% power
generation.
• Wind Power in 2010 occupied 25.15%
EEG subsidies and 46.42% power
generation.
• Output/Input of Solar PV = 0.37,
Output/Input of Wind Power = 1.85
Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC

Direct Normal Irradiation Decides Generation of Solar PV
• The unit of DNI is KWh/m2 per day or KWh/m2 per year

• The average DNI in the US is around 2 to 3 times than Taiwan.
The LCOE of solar PV in Taiwan is 2 to 3 times than the US.

DNI in Taiwan is Quite Low

Empirical Study in Taiwan
• 新北市大覺禪寺：10165 KWh/y /9450 W =

1.076 KWh/W-y。在沒有政府補助之下, （財
務上）約需要31年才能回收投資成本。（尚
不包含每年的維護成本）
• 高雄永安太陽能：6M KWh/y / 4.6MW =
1.304 KWh/W-y。高雄市安裝太陽能在沒有
政府補助的情況下, 需要25.6年才能回收。
• You and me pay the bill.
新的電價公式已經改成全體用電戶分攤綠電補
助。
綠電佔比越高，平均電價上漲幅度越大，用電
戶的負擔也越重。電價上漲是必然的趨勢。
升級超級智慧電網，消納太陽能也需要很多
錢。
能源使用也是一種基本人權：照顧低收入族群
很重要。例如，政府補助安裝節能設備，如＊Taiwan：1250 KWh/KWp-year
LED燈、變頻冷暖氣等…。＊Germany：900~1100 KWh/KWp-year
＊Japan：900~1100 KWh/KWp-year
提高工業電價，促進產業升級。＊Arizona State：2380 KWh/KWp-year
利用閒置工業土地開發地面型/電力級太陽
SDC/FIT & Public Markets Pay the High Cost of Solar PV

In the Long Run, Solar PV Will Be Price-competitive

Solar PV is not Matured
• Utility-grade power should achieve 30% system capacity factor, but Solar
PV is around 15% right now.
• Utility-scale generator is beyond 6MW, but most solar PV system is under
1MWp.

We Can Not Achieve These Goals in Taiwan
• Average DNI/Insolation in Taiwan is 3.4, but Arizona State is 6.5

• System life time in Taiwan is around 8-12 years, not 30 years.
• Typhoon issues.
• Solution：Service + Landlord business model
12.1 cents
11.6 cents
11.1 cents
Source: Josh Cornfeld (2014), "How Arizona’s Property Tax Ruling Will Affect State Solar Prices"

Solar PV should replace OCGT/Light Diesel Oil Power first, and then Fuel Oil Power
• Fuel Oil + Light Diesel Oil：NT$52,605,344,436 (21X), 13,332,200,000 KWh (16X)

• Solar PV should replace OCGT/Light Diesel Oil first, and then Fuel Oil.
FIT Root-top NT$6.8/KWh + Grid Cost NT$0.85/KWh = NT$7.65 per KWh
FIT Utility Scale NT$4.6/KWh + Grid Cost NT$0.85/KWh = NT$5.45 per KWh
2015 Taipower Cost Analysis (based on budget plan)
Unit Cost, Unit Cost, including
Unit Cost
Generation Type Electricity (KWh) Cost (NT$) including grid grid cost & operating
(NT$/KWh)
cost (NT$/KWh) cost (NT$/KWh)
Fossil-Fuel： 129,295,200,000 300,806,502,000 2.3265 2.8076 3.0771
Coal 56,527,000,000 67,737,061,581 1.1983 1.6794 1.9489
Fuel oil 12,908,000,000 48,997,621,745 3.7959 4.2770 4.5465
Light diesel oil （OCGT） 424,200,000 3,607,722,691 8.5048 8.9858 9.2553
Gas （CCGT） 59,436,000,000 180,464,095,983 3.0363 3.5174 3.7869
Nuclear 35,418,000,000 31,051,803,000 0.8767 1.3578 1.6273
Hydro 3,649,000,000 7,473,631,000 2.0481 2.5292 2.7987
Renewable (Wind, Solar & Others) 825,000,000 2,536,748,000 3.0748 3.5559 3.8254
Pumped Hydro 3,025,000,000
Generation Cost 341,868,684,000 1.9852
Expense：
Transmission 172,212,200,000 35,929,135,000 0.2086
Distribution 172,212,200,000 46,918,948,000 0.2724
Grid Cost 82,848,083,000 0.4811
Other Operating Cost 172,212,200,000 305,802,000 0.0018
Marketing Expense 172,212,200,000 6,205,971,000 0.0360
Administration Expense 172,212,200,000 1,485,525,000 0.0086
R&D Expense 172,212,200,000 3,512,907,000 0.0204
Employee Traning Expense 172,212,200,000 642,341,000 0.0037
Non-operating Expense 172,212,200,000 34,258,495,000 0.1989
Operating Cost 46,411,041,000 0.2695
Grid+Operating Cost 129,259,124,000 0.7506
Total Cost 172,212,200,000 471,127,808,000 2.7357
http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/announcement/ann01.aspx?BType=6
Earthquake Power (地震發電) versus Geothermal Power (地熱發電)
• Pumping water underground at geothermal power plants can lead to

dangerous earthquakes even in regions not prone to tremors, according to
scientists. They say that quake risk should be factored into decisions about where
to site geothermal plants and other drilling rigs where water is pumped
underground – for example in shale gas fracking.
• However, the new evidence reveals the potential for much larger earthquakes, of
magnitude 4 or 5, related to the weakening of pre-existing undergrounds faults
through increased fluid pressure. (magnitude >2, Felt earthquakes)
• The analysis of the Californian site showed that for a net injection of 500m
gallons of water into the ground per month, there is an earthquake on average
every 11 days.
Source: The Guardian (2013) by Natalie Starkey, "Pumping water underground could trigger major earthquake, say
scientists", https://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/jul/11/fracking-water-injection-major-earthquakes
Types of Geothermal Power
Source：US Geothermal Energy Association (2016), "2016 Annual U.S. & Global Geothermal Power Production Report"

Earthquake Power Plant, Comprising Water Injection Well
• EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) is a kind of Binary geothermal technology.

• Back Pressure (a kind of binary geothermal)：The condensate (冷凝水) and brine (鹽水) from
both of the subsystems are combined and re-injected into the reservoir.
Back Pressure Steam Turbine
Source：ORMAT (2016), "Integrated Combined Cycle Units Geothermal

Power Plants",
http://www.ormat.com/solutions/Geothermal_Integrated_Combined_Cycle
A System Overview of CEEG
• CEEG：Complex Energy Extraction from Geothermal resources
Source：NOX Holding AG (2014), "CEEG-TECHNOLOGY by BY PROF. BOHDAN

ZAKIEWICZ, PhD", http://umba.am/pics/2014/03/NOX-Holding.pdf
CEEG is a Future Technology
• All the data, information, graphs, tables, texts…etc. which are claimed by
any CEEG company ,doctor, and professor need to be verified very
carefully.
Reliability and Security are very important for power equipment.
Source：NOX Holding AG (2014), "CEEG-TECHNOLOGY by BY PROF. BOHDAN

ZAKIEWICZ, PhD", http://umba.am/pics/2014/03/NOX-Holding.pdf
Microgrid/Distributed Power is expensive and a niche market
• “Distributed Power Generation” is a power generation without transmission grid.

• As of 2Q 2013, Navigant Research has identified a total of 3,793 MW of total microgrid
capacity throughout the world, up from 3,179 MW in the previous tracker update in 4Q 2012.
• 3,793MW/5,579,000MWW = 0.068%
• Microgrid/Distributed Power is a very very niche market.
• People with energy-bias see this niche market as a main stream. They lied to you.
• Again, the additional cost of microgrid/distributed power is paid by you and me.
Source: Navigant Research (2013), “Microgrid Deployment Tracker 2Q13”. Source: BNEF (2014), "Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) 2030 Market
Outlook".
Microgrid/Small Distributed Capacity Investment

Super Grid in Asia

Renewable Power Will Fail without Super Smart Grid
• Where is Taiwan’s Super Grid Strategy?

• Smart Meter is not the core. Smart Dispatching & Super Grid are dual
cores for a smart power system.

Grid Profits over Costs

Slow Super Grid Development Makes Fast Growing of Offshore Wind Power in China

Phase 1 of Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits
Northern Delivery of Offshore Power

A lot of Wind and Solar PV Power Will be Abandoned after 2020 without Grid Upgrade
• Grid Cost of Solar PV in Taiwan, NT$0.85/KWh

Unfortunately, Taipower’s 345KV transmission grid is totally 5,545MW. It can’t afford 20GW
Solar PV from the southern Taiwan to northern Taiwan. There are 16-20GW offshore wind
power from Changhua to Taipei.
There will be a lot of wind and solar PV power abandoned after 2020 if Taipower doesn’t upgrade its
transmission grid.
• Transmission grid should be upgraded to super grid with IoT capabilities.
Source: Taipower, 2016 Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2016
Grid Power Storage
• Power Storage smooths the output curve.

• 30 seconds storage is a must, and 10 minutes (automatic generation control) is good.
It’s not necessary to store over 10 minutes due to high cost of storage solutions.
• Wind farm storage is around 2 minutes. Storage (MWh)/Wind Capacity (MW) =
1:30
• If Taipower has a 30 minutes grid power storage system, it will be very expensive.
Solar PV plus Energy Storage is a Nightmare
It’s stupid to have 2 hours storage right now, and only 2 minutes is sufficient.
NT$9.83/KWh
NT$8.11/KWh NT$6.42/KWh
NT$6.84/KWh
NT$5.80/KWh NT$6.23/KWh
NT$4.15/KWh NT$3.89/KWh NT$4.09/KWh
NT$3.08/KWh
The Challenges of Operating a Grid with High Renewable Penetration
Source: ICF International, "The Dynamic Challenge of Integrating Variable Resources", http://www.powermag.com/the-dynamic-challenge-of-integrating-
variable-resources/?pagenum=2
Energy IoT
SCADA is very Key to Energy IoT
Wrong Scenario Leads the Wrong Roadmap
Criteria for Evaluating Roles of Energy Sources
Source：US DOE (2012), "Role of Alternative Energy Sources: Wind Technology Assessment", http://netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Energy%20Analysis/Publications/DOE-NETL-2012-1536.pdf
Financial Industries Help Renewable Industries
YieldCo (Stock) & Green Bond
• Be careful of “Agent Problems” & “Fintech Fraud”.
Source: NREL (2014), "A Deeper Look into Yieldco Structuring", by Marley Urdanick
Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New
Energy Finance (2016), "GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential INVESTMENT 2016".
109
100% Renewable Energy World by 2050
Source: Source: Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Guillaume Bazouin, Zack A. F. Bauer, Christa C. Heavey, Emma Fisher, Sean B. Morris, Diniana J. Y. Piekutowski,
Taylor A. Vencill and Tim W. Yeskoo (2015), "100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States", published on Energy & Environmental Science
Contact Information
Q&A
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Developing Trends of Renewable Energy at TVCA On 20160511

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Developing Trends of Renewable Energy at TVCA On 20160511

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Developing Trends of Renewable Energies

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Avg. Unit Avg. Unit Selling First buying Last Selling

TW.3141 UltraChip - 2013/7/9 2014/3/20

TW.6417 SAG - first

TW.6417 SAG - second

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• Omni-industry Analysis： (http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/)

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• An industry is a set of supply chains. An industry comprises a lot of firms,

• Financial Sectors support industry development in the ecosystems.

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Political & Legal Environment Marco Economies

Supplier’s Power Competitive Rivalry Buyer’s Power

Population Structure Social Environment

• VC funds must cooperate with project finance/M&A funds.

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*Small distributed capacity (SDC) of Solar PV is under 1MW.

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• In late 2015, onshore wind is $83/MWh (NT$2.69/KWh), solar PV is $122/MWh

Source: UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), Bloomberg New Energy

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Source: IEA, 2015

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• “Energy” is not equal to “Power”. Power is a secondary energy.

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• Oil price has very small impacts on renewable power.

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• Fossil-fuels power includes coal, natural gas, and oil.

Coal, Natural Gas, Oil, Nuclear

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• Based on BNEF’s forecast, global power capacity will grow to 10,569GW by

Source: IRENA (2015), "REmap 2030 - A Renewable Energy

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• Power-bias in Taiwan：Some people mentioned German successful

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• Renewable power must consider local conditions/technical potential.

• US EPA’s Green Power Partnership National Top 100 (Released on April

1. Intel Corporation 3,107,050,000 100% Technology & Telecom Solar, Wind

• LCOE of renewable power is competing with fossil-fuel and nuclear power.

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• Energy sector is a chartered industry. Policies and regulations dominate most of

Source: IRENA (2015), "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014".

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• Generation：1 TWh (10億度電) ＝ 1 billion KWh

Source: IEA (2013), World Energy Outlook Special Report

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• CAGR from 2000-2050： (1) World：11.66%; (2) Onshore：10.73%; (3)

Onshore Cumulative Capacity (GW) Offshore Cumulative Capacity (GW)

• If wind turbines cover all areas in the world, there is 6,000TW.