Chris Kavalec
Demand Analysis Office
Electricity Supply Analysis Division
Chris.Kavalec@energy.state.ca.us
916 654 5184
916-654-5184
California Energy Commission
C lif
California
i EEnergy D
Demand
d (CED)
Forecasts
• Draft
• Revised
– Released August 3, 2009
– Workshop August 17, 2009
• Uncommitted forecast: to be completed after
the revised forecast
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Summary of Results
• Significantly reduced electricity consumption
vs. previous forecast (for 2007 IEPR)
– Economy
– Increased efficiency impacts
– Lower
L starting
t ti point i t
• Drop in peak electricity demand not as
dramatic
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Housing Floorspace
Model Model Crop Urban Dairy and Thermal Motors,
Production Water Livestock Processes Lighting,
Pumping HVAC
Energy Energy
Model Model
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Rate Scenarios
• 3 rate scenarios for electricity and natural gas
– Low-rate case: constant rates
– Mid-rate case: 15 % higher for electricity and
10% higher for natural gas by 2020 vs. 2010
– High-rate case: 30% higher by 2020 vs. 2010
• Affects residential, commercial, and industrial
sectors
t
• Using low-rate case for comparison to
previous
i electricity
l t i it fforecastt
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Statewide
St t id Electricity
El t i it Consumption
C ti
Low-Rate Case
Short-term drop, lower long-term growth
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Statewide
St t id Electricity
El t i it Peak
P k
Low-Rate Case
Rate of growth higher than consumption
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P k El
Peak Electricity
t i it per Capita
C it
Low-Rate Case
Less decline compared to consumption
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Causes off R
C Reduced
d dCConsumption
ti iin
2010: 2009 Draft vs. CED 2007
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Causes off R
C Reduced
d dCConsumption
ti iin
2018: 2009 Draft vs. CED 2007
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Statewide
St t id Personal
P l Income
I
Mirrors Consumption
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Statewide
St t id Employment
E l t
Mirrors Consumption
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Statewide
St t id ElElectricity
t i it CConsumption
ti byb
Sector: Low-Rate Case
M t off the
Most th reduction
d ti is i in
i residential
id ti l and
d commercial
i l
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St t id Electricity
Statewide El t i it Peak
P k by
b Sector
S t
Low-Rate Case
Most of the reduction is in residential and commercial
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St t id El
Statewide Electricity
t i it CConsumption
ti byb
Price Scenario
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St t id Electricity
Statewide El t i it Peak
P k by
b Price
Pi
Scenario
70,000
Low‐Rate Case
68,000
Mid‐Rate
Mid Rate Case
Case
High‐Rate Case
66,000
MW
64,000
62,000
60,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: California Energy Commission,
Commission 2009
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Self-Generation Forecast
• Accounts for all of the major programs
– Emerging Renewables Program (ERP)
– California Solar Initiative (CSI)
– Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP)
– New Solar Homes Partnership (NSHP)
– Other misc.
• Billing data reports self
self-generation
generation by large
industrial users
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Illustrative
Ill t ti Residential
R id ti l PV System
S t
Simulation (MW installed)
Adoptions increase quickly as system prices drop
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N t
Natural
lGGas Forecast
F t by
b Price
Pi
Scenario
13,700
13,500
Low (constant) Rates
Mid Rates
MM Therms
13,300
High Rates
13,100
12,900
12,700
12,500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: California Energy Commission, 2009
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