ESTUDIO DE CASO

SPECIALTY PACKAGING CORPORATION

DATOS

Año Trimestre Demanda de plástico Demanda de plástico claro

oscuro (000 lb) (000 lb)
I 2,250 3,200
II 1,737 4,658
2002
III 2,412 4,420
IV 7,269 2,384
I 3,514 3,654
II 2,143 8,680
2003
III 3,459 5,695
IV 7,056 1,953
I 4,120 4,742
II 2,766 13,673
2004
III 2,556 6,640
IV 8,253 2,737
I 5,491 3,486
II 4,382 13,186
2005
III 4,315 5,448
IV 12,035 3,485
I 5,648 7,728
II 3,696 16,591
2006
III 4,843 8,236
IV 13,097 3,316
METODO 1: Mínimos Cuadrados

PRODUCTO: PLASTICO OSCURO

Año Trimestre x (Periodo) Y (Demanda de XY X^2 Y^2

plástico oscuro (000
lb))
I 1 2,250 2,250 1 5,062,500
II 2 1,737 3,474 4 3,017,169
2002
III 3 2,412 7,236 9 5,817,744
IV 4 7,269 29,076 16 52,838,361
I 5 3,514 17,570 25 12,348,196
II 6 2,143 12,858 36 4,592,449
2003
III 7 3,459 24,213 49 11,964,681
IV 8 7,056 56,448 64 49,787,136
I 9 4,120 37,080 81 16,974,400
II 10 2,766 27,660 100 7,650,756
2004
III 11 2,556 28,116 121 6,533,136
IV 12 8,253 99,036 144 68,112,009
I 13 5,491 71,383 169 30,151,081
II 14 4,382 61,348 196 19,201,924
2005
III 15 4,315 64,725 225 18,619,225
IV 16 12,035 192,560 256 144,841,225
I 17 5,648 96,016 289 31,899,904
II 18 3,696 66,528 324 13,660,416
2006
III 19 4,843 92,017 361 23,454,649
IV 20 13,097 261,940 400 171,531,409
SUMATORIAS 210 101,042 1,251,534 2,870 698,058,370

Y  b  X N  XY   X Y
a b
N X 2   X 
2
N

a= 2042.74 b= 286.61

Estimación de la ecuación.
Y  2042.74  286.61X
PRODUCTO: PLASTICO CLARO

Año Trimestre X (Periodo) Demanda de plástico XY X^2 Y^2

claro (000 lb)
I 1 3,200 3,200 1 10,240,000
II 2 4,658 9,316 4 21,696,964
2002
III 3 4,420 13,260 9 19,536,400
IV 4 2,384 9,536 16 5,683,456
I 5 3,654 18,270 25 13,351,716
II 6 8,680 52,080 36 75,342,400
2003
III 7 5,695 39,865 49 32,433,025
IV 8 1,953 15,624 64 3,814,209
I 9 4,742 42,678 81 22,486,564
II 10 13,673 136,730 100 186,950,929
2004
III 11 6,640 73,040 121 44,089,600
IV 12 2,737 32,844 144 7,491,169
I 13 3,486 45,318 169 12,152,196
II 14 13,186 184,604 196 173,870,596
2005
III 15 5,448 81,720 225 29,680,704
IV 16 3,485 55,760 256 12,145,225
I 17 7,728 131,376 289 59,721,984
II 18 16,591 298,638 324 275,261,281
2006
III 19 8,236 156,484 361 67,831,696
IV 20 3,316 66,320 400 10,995,856
SUMATORIAS 210 123,912 1,466,663 2,870 1,084,775,970

Y  b  X N  XY   X Y
a b
N X 2   X 
2
N

a= 3581.07 b= 249.00

Estimación de la ecuación.
Y  3581.07  249 X
Calculo de MSE para los pronósticos:
Año Trimestre Periodo Demanda de plástico oscuro Pronostico Error2
(000 lb) (Yt)
2002 - I 1 2,250 2,329.34 6,295.29
2002 - II 2 1,737 2,615.95 772,551.12
2002
2002 - III 3 2,412 2,902.55 240,644.10
2002 - IV 4 7,269 3,189.16 16,645,087.06
2003 - I 5 3,514 3,475.77 1,461.77
2003 - II 6 2,143 3,762.37 2,622,368.69
2003
2003 - III 7 3,459 4,048.98 348,075.16
2003 - IV 8 7,056 4,335.58 7,400,657.98
2004 - I 9 4,120 4,622.19 252,195.78
2004 - II 10 2,766 4,908.80 4,591,578.95
2004
2004 - III 11 2,556 5,195.40 6,966,448.24
2004 - IV 12 8,253 5,482.01 7,678,391.00
2005 - I 13 5,491 5,768.62 77,070.11
2005 - II 14 4,382 6,055.22 2,799,668.69
2005
2005 - III 15 4,315 6,341.83 4,108,027.96
2005 - IV 16 12,035 6,628.43 29,230,965.83
2006 - I 17 5,648 6,915.04 1,605,388.08
2006 - II 18 3,696 7,201.65 12,289,547.66
2006
2006 - III 19 4,843 7,488.25 6,997,353.53
2006 - IV 20 13,097 7,774.86 28,325,204.59
TOTAL 132,958,981.58
MSE 6,647,949.08
Año Trimestre Periodo Demanda de plástico claro Pronostico Error2
(000 lb) (Yt)
2002 - I 1 3,200 3,830.07 396,990.01
2002 - II 2 4,658 4,079.07 335,154.81
2002
2002 - III 3 4,420 4,328.08 8,449.76
2002 - IV 4 2,384 4,577.08 4,809,601.87
2003 - I 5 3,654 4,826.08 1,373,779.63
2003 - II 6 8,680 5,075.09 12,995,401.59
2003
2003 - III 7 5,695 5,324.09 137,574.62
2003 - IV 8 1,953 5,573.09 13,105,069.57
2004 - I 9 4,742 5,822.10 1,166,606.26
2004 - II 10 13,673 6,071.10 57,788,906.47
2004
2004 - III 11 6,640 6,320.10 102,335.05
2004 - IV 12 2,737 6,569.10 14,685,024.99
2005 - I 13 3,486 6,818.11 11,102,940.52
2005 - II 14 13,186 7,067.11 37,440,808.39
2005
2005 - III 15 5,448 7,316.11 3,489,848.18
2005 - IV 16 3,485 7,565.12 16,647,350.99
2006 - I 17 7,728 7,814.12 7,416.58
2006 - II 18 16,591 8,063.12 72,724,693.69
2006
2006 - III 19 8,236 8,312.13 5,795.10
2006 - IV 20 3,316 8,561.13 27,511,373.73
TOTAL 275,835,121.79
MSE 13,791,756.09
METODO 2: Promedio Móvil
Se escogerá un intervalo de 2 periodos para el cálculo del promedio.

Año Trimestre Periodo Demanda de plástico Media Móvil Error2

oscuro (000 lb)
2002 - I 1 2,250
2002 - II 2 1,737
2002
2002 - III 3 2,412 1,994 175,142.25
2002 - IV 4 7,269 2,075 26,982,830.25
2003 - I 5 3,514 4,841 1,759,602.25
2003 - II 6 2,143 5,392 10,552,752.25
2003
2003 - III 7 3,459 2,829 397,530.25
2003 - IV 8 7,056 2,801 18,105,025.00
2004 - I 9 4,120 5,258 1,293,906.25
2004 - II 10 2,766 5,588 7,963,684.00
2004
2004 - III 11 2,556 3,443 786,769.00
2004 - IV 12 8,253 2,661 31,270,464.00
2005 - I 13 5,491 5,405 7,482.25
2005 - II 14 4,382 6,872 6,200,100.00
2005
2005 - III 15 4,315 4,937 386,262.25
2005 - IV 16 12,035 4,349 59,082,282.25
2006 - I 17 5,648 8,175 6,385,729.00
2006 - II 18 3,696 8,842 26,476,170.25
2006
2006 - III 19 4,843 4,672 29,241.00
2006 - IV 20 13,097 4,270 77,924,756.25
TOTAL 275,779,728.75
MSE 15,321,096.04
Año Trimestre Periodo Demanda de plástico Media Móvil Error2
claro (000 lb)
2002 - I 1 3,200
2002 - II 2 4,658
2002
2002 - III 3 4,420 3,929 241,081.00
2002 - IV 4 2,384 4,539 4,644,025.00
2003 - I 5 3,654 3,402 63,504.00
2003 - II 6 8,680 3,019 32,046,921.00
2003
2003 - III 7 5,695 6,167 222,784.00
2003 - IV 8 1,953 7,188 27,399,990.25
2004 - I 9 4,742 3,824 842,724.00
2004 - II 10 13,673 3,348 106,615,950.25
2004
2004 - III 11 6,640 9,208 6,592,056.25
2004 - IV 12 2,737 10,157 55,048,980.25
2005 - I 13 3,486 4,689 1,446,006.25
2005 - II 14 13,186 3,112 101,495,550.25
2005
2005 - III 15 5,448 8,336 8,340,544.00
2005 - IV 16 3,485 9,317 34,012,224.00
2006 - I 17 7,728 4,467 10,637,382.25
2006 - II 18 16,591 5,607 120,659,240.25
2006
2006 - III 19 8,236 12,160 15,393,852.25
2006 - IV 20 3,316 12,414 82,764,506.25
TOTAL 608,467,321.50
MSE 33,803,740.08
METODO 3: Promedio Móvil Ponderado
Se escogerá un intervalo de 2 periodos para el cálculo del promedio.

Año Trimestre Periodo Demanda de plástico Media Móvil Error2

oscuro (000 lb) Ponderado
2002 - I 1 2,250
2002 - II 2 1,737
2002
2002 - III 3 2,412 1,908 254,016.00
2002 - IV 4 7,269 2,142 26,286,129.00
2003 - I 5 3,514 5,187 2,800,363.18
2003 - II 6 2,143 5,183 9,240,924.46
2003
2003 - III 7 3,459 2,766 479,997.03
2003 - IV 8 7,056 2,852 17,676,849.99
2004 - I 9 4,120 5,377 1,581,054.76
2004 - II 10 2,766 5,502 7,483,764.83
2004
2004 - III 11 2,556 3,407 724,828.19
2004 - IV 12 8,253 2,656 31,326,409.00
2005 - I 13 5,491 5,528 1,394.86
2005 - II 14 4,382 6,817 5,928,056.26
2005
2005 - III 15 4,315 4,916 361,156.48
2005 - IV 16 12,035 4,347 59,100,042.05
2006 - I 17 5,648 8,300 7,030,537.78
2006 - II 18 3,696 8,745 25,489,647.07
2006
2006 - III 19 4,843 4,644 39,555.53
2006 - IV 20 13,097 4,285 77,651,344.00
TOTAL 273,456,070.48
MSE 15,192,003.92
Año Trimestre Periodo Demanda de plástico Media Móvil Error2
claro (000 lb) Ponderado
2002 - I 1 3,200
2002 - II 2 4,658
2002
2002 - III 3 4,420 4,172 61,504.00
2002 - IV 4 2,384 4,515 4,542,013.44
2003 - I 5 3,654 3,257 157,949.47
2003 - II 6 8,680 3,090 31,253,069.09
2003
2003 - III 7 5,695 6,395 490,636.57
2003 - IV 8 1,953 7,073 26,211,249.33
2004 - I 9 4,742 3,699 1,087,292.80
2004 - II 10 13,673 3,430 104,928,689.69
2004
2004 - III 11 6,640 9,443 7,854,153.75
2004 - IV 12 2,737 9,989 52,592,194.67
2005 - I 13 3,486 4,604 1,249,146.38
2005 - II 14 13,186 3,126 101,193,942.63
2005
2005 - III 15 5,448 8,516 9,410,351.54
2005 - IV 16 3,485 9,184 32,473,884.76
2006 - I 17 7,728 4,435 10,844,911.28
2006 - II 18 16,591 5,671 119,251,032.77
2006
2006 - III 19 8,236 12,286 16,403,425.73
2006 - IV 20 3,316 12,301 80,722,940.03
TOTAL 600,728,387.93
MSE 33,373,799.33
METODO 4: Suavización Exponencial
Se utiliza un α=0.20
Ft 1  Yt  (1  )Ft

Año Trimestre Periodo Yt (Demanda de plástico Ft(Pronostico) Error2

oscuro (000 lb))
2002 - I 2,250 2,250
2002 - II 2 1,737 2,147 168,428.16
2002
2002 - III 3 2,412 2,200 44,808.42
2002 - IV 4 7,269 3,214 16,442,570.84
2003 - I 5 3,514 3,274 57,578.50
2003 - II 6 2,143 3,048 818,727.90
2003
2003 - III 7 3,459 3,130 108,195.82
2003 - IV 8 7,056 3,915 9,864,279.55
2004 - I 9 4,120 3,956 26,829.15
2004 - II 10 2,766 3,718 906,614.68
2004
2004 - III 11 2,556 3,486 864,398.85
2004 - IV 12 8,253 4,439 14,545,189.26
2005 - I 13 5,491 4,650 708,042.25
2005 - II 14 4,382 4,596 45,812.28
2005
2005 - III 15 4,315 4,540 50,548.72
2005 - IV 16 12,035 6,039 35,953,642.86
2006 - I 17 5,648 5,961 97,775.96
2006 - II 18 3,696 5,508 3,282,449.58
2006
2006 - III 19 4,843 5,375 282,813.94
2006 - IV 20 13,097 6,919 38,164,693.49
TOTAL 122,433,400.20
MSE 6,121,670.01
Año Trimestre Periodo Yt (Demanda de plástico Ft(Pronostico) Error2
claro (000 lb))
2002 - I 1 3,200 3,200
2002 - II 2 4,658 3,492 1,360,488.96
2002
2002 - III 3 4,420 3,677 551,633.00
2002 - IV 4 2,384 3,419 1,070,446.82
2003 - I 5 3,654 3,466 35,457.19
2003 - II 6 8,680 4,509 17,400,917.01
2003
2003 - III 7 5,695 4,746 900,890.49
2003 - IV 8 1,953 4,187 4,991,998.14
2004 - I 9 4,742 4,298 196,938.57
2004 - II 10 13,673 6,173 56,247,331.32
2004
2004 - III 11 6,640 6,267 139,470.63
2004 - IV 12 2,737 5,561 7,972,908.20
2005 - I 13 3,486 5,146 2,754,627.63
2005 - II 14 13,186 6,754 41,373,638.43
2005
2005 - III 15 5,448 6,493 1,091,215.36
2005 - IV 16 3,485 5,891 5,789,269.24
2006 - I 17 7,728 6,258 2,159,512.47
2006 - II 18 16,591 8,325 68,327,125.99
2006
2006 - III 19 8,236 8,307 5,066.89
2006 - IV 20 3,316 7,309 15,943,615.18
TOTAL 228,312,551.52
MSE 11,415,627.58
ELECCION DE METODOS DE PRONOSTICOS
Se elegirá el método de pronóstico que tenga el menor grado de error (MSE menor),
para pronosticar los valores de la demanda para el periodo de tiempo de 2007 –
2009.

MSE
MODELO Plástico Oscuro Plástico Claro
Mínimos Cuadrados 6,647,949.08 13,791,756.09
Promedio Móvil 15,321,096.04 33,803,740.08
Promedio Móvil Ponderado 15,192,003.92 33,373,799.33
Suavización Exponencial 6,121,670.01 11,415,627.58

Se tiene que el método de pronóstico elegido para pronosticar la demanda del

Plástico Oscuro y el Plástico Claro es la Suavización Exponencial, por tener los
menores valores del error.
PRONOSTICO DE LA DEMANDA PARA LOS AÑOS 2007 – 2009:

PLASTICO OSCURO
Año Trimestre Periodo Yt (Demanda de plastico Ft(Pronostico)
oscuro (000 lb))
2002 - I 2,250 2,250.00
2002 - II 2 1,737 2,147.40
2002
2002 - III 3 2,412 2,200.32
2002 - IV 4 7,269 3,214.06
2003 - I 5 3,514 3,274.04
2003 - II 6 2,143 3,047.84
2003
2003 - III 7 3,459 3,130.07
2003 - IV 8 7,056 3,915.25
2004 - I 9 4,120 3,956.20
2004 - II 10 2,766 3,718.16
2004
2004 - III 11 2,556 3,485.73
2004 - IV 12 8,253 4,439.18
2005 - I 13 5,491 4,649.55
2005 - II 14 4,382 4,596.04
2005
2005 - III 15 4,315 4,539.83
2005 - IV 16 12,035 6,038.86
2006 - I 17 5,648 5,960.69
2006 - II 18 3,696 5,507.75
2006
2006 - III 19 4,843 5,374.80
2006 - IV 20 13,097 6,919.24
2007 - I 21 5,535.39
2007 - II 22 5,535.39
2007
2007 - III 23 5,535.39
2007 - IV 24 5,535.39
2008 - I 25 5,535.39
2008 - II 26 5,535.39
2008
2008 - III 27 5,535.39
2008 - IV 28 5,535.39
2009 - I 29 5,535.39
2009 - II 30 5,535.39
2009
2009 - III 31 5,535.39
2009 - IV 32 5,535.39
PLASTICO CLARO
Año Trimestre Periodo Yt (Demanda de plástico Ft(Pronostico)
claro (000 lb))
2002 - I 1 3,200 3,200.00
2002 - II 2 4,658 3,491.60
2002
2002 - III 3 4,420 3,677.28
2002 - IV 4 2,384 3,418.62
2003 - I 5 3,654 3,465.70
2003 - II 6 8,680 4,508.56
2003
2003 - III 7 5,695 4,745.85
2003 - IV 8 1,953 4,187.28
2004 - I 9 4,742 4,298.22
2004 - II 10 13,673 6,173.18
2004
2004 - III 11 6,640 6,266.54
2004 - IV 12 2,737 5,560.63
2005 - I 13 3,486 5,145.71
2005 - II 14 13,186 6,753.77
2005
2005 - III 15 5,448 6,492.61
2005 - IV 16 3,485 5,891.09
2006 - I 17 7,728 6,258.47
2006 - II 18 16,591 8,324.98
2006
2006 - III 19 8,236 8,307.18
2006 - IV 20 3,316 7,308.95
2007 - I 21 5,847.16
2007 - II 22 5,847.16
2007
2007 - III 23 5,847.16
2007 - IV 24 5,847.16
2008 - I 25 5,847.16
2008 - II 26 5,847.16
2008
2008 - III 27 5,847.16
2008 - IV 28 5,847.16
2009 - I 29 5,847.16
2009 - II 30 5,847.16
2009
2009 - III 31 5,847.16
2009 - IV 32 5,847.16