20190115-Kedaulatan Ekonomi PDF
20190115-Kedaulatan Ekonomi PDF
com
PERSOALAN KEBIJAKAN?
Faisal Basri
15 Januari 2019
Kedaulatan (sovereignty)
▪ is the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any
interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory,
sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over
some polity. Source: wikipedia.com
Kedaulatan ada harganya atau ada trade-off
▪ PT Freeport Indonesia telah hadir
setengah abad. Akhir tahun lalu
kontrak sudah diperpanjang sampai
20141.
▪ Untuk perpanjangan sampai 2041,
pemerintah (Pusat dan Daerah)
mensyaratkan pemilikan mayoritas
(51%) dan telah terwujud.
▪ Pemilikan mayoritas ketika
penambangan di permukaan sudah
nyaris habis, ongkos eksploitasi kian
mahal, dana keluar dari Indonesia.
▪ Produksi tak naik, pembangunan infrastruktur baru tak akan massif, tak ada
tambahan tenaga kerja secara berarti. Perhitungan ekonomi vs finansial.
▪ Mengapa tak melakukan eksploitasi di lahan yang sudah dikembalikan oleh
Freeport yang lebih luas dengan potensi cadangan emas yang lebih besar?
Kedaulatan untuk menyejahterakan rakyat
13.93
14 13.34
13.14
12
10.99
10.31
9.90
10
Perikanan
8 Pertanian
Kehutanan
Sektor Pertanian
6
2.57
2.32
2.09
2
0.85 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.67
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
113.53
106.38 106.52
103.61
102.98
102.29
101.23
94.48
10
11
12
10
11
12
10
11
12
10
11
12
10
11
12
Sep'14
3
4
5
6
3
4
5
6
3
4
5
6
3
4
5
6
2
7
8
9
7
8
9
7
8
9
7
8
9
Jan'15
Jan'16
Jan'17
Jan'18
NTP-Non-perikanan NTN NTNT NT-TPR
10
-10
-15
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2017
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Global food security index, 2012-2017
Weighted total of all category scores (0-100 where 100 = most favourable)
Rank Score
Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
United States 1 1 1 1 1 2 89.5 86.8 89.3 89.0 86.6 84.6
Singapore .. 16 5 2 3 4 .. 79.9 84.3 88.2 83.9 84.0
Germany 10 11 8 8 6 7 83.0 81.7 83.7 83.9 82.5 82.5
France 4 3 10 9 6 8 86.8 83.7 83.4 83.8 82.5 82.3
United Kingdom 20 20 16 15 8 3 79.0 77.3 81.6 81.6 81.9 84.2
Israel 22 17 17 19 17 19 77.7 78.4 80.6 78.9 78.9 79.2
Japan 16 18 21 21 22 18 80.7 77.8 77.8 77.4 75.9 79.5
South Korea 21 24 25 26 28 24 77.8 71.1 73.2 74.8 73.3 74.7
Malaysia 33 34 34 34 35 41 63.9 64.5 68.0 69.0 69.0 66.2
Brazil 31 29 33 36 41 38 67.6 67.0 68.1 67.4 67.6 67.7
South Africa 40 39 46 41 47 44 61.7 61.0 61.1 64.5 62.9 64.0
China 38 42 42 42 42 45 62.5 60.2 62.2 64.2 65.5 63.7
Russia 29 40 40 43 48 41 68.3 60.9 62.7 63.8 62.3 66.2
Thailand 45 45 49 52 51 55 57.9 58.9 59.9 60.0 59.5 58.3
Vietnam 55 60 67 65 57 64 50.4 48.6 49.1 53.4 57.1 54.0
Indonesia 64 66 72 74 71 69 46.8 45.6 46.5 46.7 50.6 51.3
Philippines 63 64 65 72 74 79 47.1 46.9 49.4 49.4 49.5 47.3
India 66 70 69 68 75 74 45.0 44.4 48.3 50.9 49.4 48.9
Congo 105 107 109 105 107 112 18.4 20.8 24.8 30.1 30.5 25.5
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Food Security Index 2012-2017.
Ketahanan pangan
09/17/13
01/23/14
06/03/14
10/08/14
02/09/15
06/15/15
10/21/15
02/24/16
06/28/16
11/03/16
03/08/17
07/25/17
11/24/17
04/02/18
08/16/18
12/19/18
13-May
24-May
13-May
Mar-19
30-Nov
10-Nov
06-Aug
30-Aug
18-Aug
13-Dec
22-Dec
Aug-12
14-Apr
07-Apr
26-Apr
14-Sep
27-Sep
06-Feb
28-Feb
10-Oct
05-Jan
19-Jan
12-Jun
Jan-08
Jul-24
03-Jul
7,500
8,440
(08/02/2011)
8,500 8,602
9,500
10,500
10,800
11,500 (08/30/2005)
12,500
12,400
(11/24-26/2008)
13,500 14,084
(01/15/19)
14,481
14,500 (12/31/18)
14,728
(09/29/2015)
15,500 15,237
(10/30/18)
6,000 0
-0.7 -1.2 -1.3
7,855 -1.7
-2.2 -2.0
8,000 8,577 -2
9,141 8,770
-2.9
10,000 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -4
-3.7 9,705 10,461
10,01410,261
10,390
-4.9 11,865
12,000 -6
13,389
14,000 -8
-7.8 14,250
14,185
Fixed exchange rate
16,000 -10
1969
1970
1973
1974
1977
1978
1981
1982
1985
1986
1990
1994
1998
1999
2002
2003
2006
2007
2010
2011
2014
2015
2018
1967
1968
1971
1972
1975
1976
1979
1980
1983
1984
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
2000
2001
2004
2005
2008
2009
2012
2013
2016
2017
2019*
Official exchange rate (IDR per US$, period average) Current account balance (% of GDP)-RHS
*Q1-Q3 (January-September) for current account; year to date (7 January) for exchange rate.
Sources: Bank Indonesia and World Bank.
The impossible trinity or the policy trilemma
Fixed
Exchange rate 1. Jika ingin nilai tukar stabil (tetap)
seraya bank sentral tak direcoki
oleh kekuatan lain (pemerintah)
dalam menentukan suku bunga,
maka jangan terapkan rezim
devisa bebas (free capital
1 2 mobiity).
Pick one
side of 2. Jika ingin nilai tukar stabil (tetap)
the triangle seraya tidak ada pengendalian
devisa, maka jangan berikan
otonomi kepada bank sentral
dalam menentukan suku bunga.
3
3. Jika bank sentral memiliki
Monetary Free capital
Autonomy mobility
otonomi dalam menentukan suku
bunga dan berlaku rezim devisa
bebas, maka jangan berharap
nilai tukar stabil (tetap).
Perubahan paradigma kebijakan
40.1
40
35 37.8
30 27.8
29.1 29.34
27.6
25
20.3
19.8
20 22.0
19.7
15
Indonesia: premature
10 deindustrialization?
5 6.8
53.1
47.7
47.5
40.6
43.6
42.3
38.8
34.2
29.7
13.0
2.1
3.6
0.3
1962
1971
1974
1976
1979
1981
1984
1986
1989
1994
1999
2004
2007
2009
2012
2014
2017
1967
1968
1969
1970
1972
1973
1975
1977
1978
1980
1982
1983
1985
1987
1988
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2008
2010
2011
2013
2015
2016
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators, downloaded from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN on January 1, 2019.
Trade deficit: manufacturing products
70
US$ billions
50
30
10
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
-110
-130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
50
43.0
40
30
26.9
25.6
21.5
20 16.7
10 10.5
5.8
0
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2013
2016
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1998
1999
2001
2002
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
Indonesia East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries)
Lower middle income Vietnam
Malaysia Thailand
80 76.4
70
62.7
60
53.3 61.8
50
49.2
40 34.4
28.6
30
20
17.7
10
100
-50
0
-200
-150
50
1945
1950
1951
1952
-0.01
1962
1963
1964
Total exports
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
Total imports
1980
13.1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
Trade balance (USD billions)
1993
1994
1995
4.8
Trade balance-RHS
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
28.6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
39.7
2007
2008
2009
Zero line-RHS
2010
2011
26.1
2012
2013
-4.1
7.7
2014
2015
2016
Trade deficit reached its worst record in history
2017
2018
-8.6
0
10
20
50
30
40
-20
-10
Oil and gas deficits soared, non-oil and gas
surpluses dropped sharply
40 39.5
USD billions
30
25.3
20.3 20.4
18.9
20
10 8.3
9.2
3.9 3.8
-5.6
-5.6
-10
-9.4
-12.4
-13.4
-20
67.8
61.2
53.7
52.5
49.0
47.7
43.7
38.5
36.6
33.7
31.1
27.7
27.6
27.6
26.1
25.2
24.7
23.9
23.8
23.7
23.1
23.0
20.6
19.7
18.7
13.2
9.9
Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS); and for imports downloaded from
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. Downloaded on August 14, 2017.
Example of Global Value Chains (pre
Example of global value chains: ipod-Apple
maturation)
• The case of iPod (Linden et al, 2009), iPhone (Xing and
Detert, 2010), iPad (Linden et al, 2011) show that most
Box 2. The balance of trade in gross and value-added terms (the iPhone example continued)
Upstream
For 10 input
supplier
ipods
Assembly
65
7
74
80
83
86
92
04
10
13
16
6
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
included.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Oil trade deficit increased sharply in 2017-18
Oil trade account, USD billions
20
15
10
-5
-10
-15
-14.7
-20 -18.6
-25
-30 -27.6
2017*
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018*
1981
1983
1984
1986
1987
1989
1990
1992
1993
1995
1996
1998
1999
2001
2002
2004
2005
2007
2008
2010
2011
2013
2014
2016
2017
Crude oil Oil products Total Oil
*January-November.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Oil and gas trade deficit increased sharply in 2017-18
Trade balance-oil&gas
30
USD billions
20
10
-8.0
-10
-12.2
-20
-30
-40
*January-November.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Paradigma migas masih kental diperlakukan
sebagai komoditi, penerimaan negara, ekspor
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130530005473/en/ExxonMobil-Singapore-Chemical-Plant-Expansion-Operation
http://www.shell.com/about-us/major-projects/shell-eastern-petrochemicals-complex/shell-eastern-petrochemicals-complex-overview.html
Integrated refinery and petrochemical
industry in Malaysia
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
Saudi Aramco to
invest $7 billion in
Petronas' RAPID oil
refinery
https://www.pipelineme.com/news/regional-
news/2017/02/saudi-aramco-to-invest-7-billion-
in-petronas-rapid-oil-refinery/
Petroliam Nasional’s
(Petronas) Refinery and
Petrochemical
Integrated Development
(Rapid) project located
in the state of Johor.
http://refiningandpetrochemicals.energy-business-
review.com/news/technip-to-supply-hydrogen-
reformers-for-petronass-rapid-project-in-malaysia-
211015-4698991
Integrated refinery and petrochemical
industry in Thailand
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
http://pttgcbelmontcountyoh.com/about-pttgc/
Future
Olefin Aromatic
Planned location Plant Plant
for Downstream Land owned PT
Plant Pertamina (64 Ha)
Pertamina TBBM
Tuban
Bontang
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
Coal reserves: Top-5 and Indonesia, 2017
Antharacite Sub-
and bituminous Total Share R/P
bituminous and lignite (mil. of total ratio
(mil. tonnes) (mil. tonnes) tonnes) (percent) (year)