Per annum Per annum

Group Project Project cost O&M cost Benefits

a 1 400 20 60 Assume project cost to occur in year 0
b 2 300 25 50
c 3 500 30 90 Analysis period 20 +n
a 4 1000 50 250 Mean Discount rate 10% + (2n/10)%
b 5 2000 300 600 Std. deviation z
a 6 500 30 110
a 7 700 90 150
b 8 600 50 125
c 9 3000 125 550
a 10 2500 150 450
c 11 1250 100 300
b 12 1500 100 250
c 13 600 90 140
b 14 800 80 250
c 15 900 50 150

0 Select the analysis parameters and project group based on your index number and last name
1 Calculate the NPV for each project in the group of projects assigned to you. Comment on the budget requirement an
2 You are required to select the projects from the list of projects in your group considering the following
a. Objective is to maximize the total NPV/ Benefit Cost ratio (objective function selection instructions in the sheet 'inf
b. Total project budget available is X
c. Annual O&M budget is 0.1X
3 For the projects selected in Q3, calculate the probability of each of the project yielding negative NPV if the discount
mean discount rate equals value used in Q2
standard deviation see instructions in sheet info
discount rate follows a normal distribution
4 What is the probability that the total investment will yield a negative NPV for the projects you selected in Q3?

Submission 6.00 PM on 23rd Feb 2019. Email to Melani; late submissions will not be evaluated
Answers to be included in the 4 sheets
to occur in year 0

10% + (2n/10)%

ent on the budget requirement and overall performance of the projects in the group 20 marks
ering the following 35 marks
ction instructions in the sheet 'info')

ding negative NPV if the discount rate is variable 25 marks

rojects you selected in Q3? 20 marks

Question selection
for example
Index no. last digit (n) if name is A. B. Cdef
0,1,2,3 project group 'a' Index no is 12345X
4,5,6 project group 'b'
7,8,9 project group'c' n= 5

Analysis period = 20+n Analysis period = 20 + 5 25

Discount rate = i + (2n/10)% Discount rate = i = 10% + (2*5)/10% = 11%

i= 10%

standard deviation (z) z= 5 odd number 1.50%

if n is odd number 1.50%
if n is even number 2.00%
C
First letter in your surname/last name
X= project budget level X = 4250
A to F project budget level 4250
G to Q project budget level 4500 objective function max. npv
R to Z project budget level 4750

A to K objective function maximize NPV

L to Z objective function maximize B/C ratio

if Index number is not available, select the class list number

/10% = 11%
Name H.F.P.D.L Fonseka
Index No. 189271B
Parameter selction

Project group a
Analysis period 21
Discount rate 10.20%
Standard deviation 1.5
Budget level 4250
Objective function max. npv

Project name Project Project cost O&M cost Benefits NPV Other workings ..
A 1 400 20 60 -398.10
B 4 1000 50 250 -990.48
C 6 500 30 110 -496.19
D 7 700 90 150 -697.14
E 10 2500 150 450 -2,485.71
Optimization model
Objective function
Constraint 1
Constraint 2

Answer report from the optimization analysis to be included in this sheet

Project name Prob. NPV < 0

Show you analysis below

Name H.F.P.D.L Fonseka
Index No. 189271B
Parameter selction Index no is 189271B

Project group a n= 1
Analysis period 21
Discount rate 10.20% Analysis perio20 + 1 21
Standard deviation 1.5
Budget level 4250 Discount rate = i = 10% + (2*1)/10% = 10.2%
Objective function max. npv
Discount rate 10.20%

Project name Project Project cost O&M cost Benefits NPV NPV
a 1 400 20 60 -58.85
b 4 1000 50 250 705.74
c 6 500 30 110 182.30
d 7 700 90 150 -188.28
e 10 2500 150 450 58.61
Total

Objective Function max.npv 2999.3933

Xa Xb Xc Xd Xe Sum
Constrain 01 0 4250 0 0 0 4250 <= Budjet
Constrain 02 0 212.5 0 0 0 212.5 <= O&M
0 4.25 0 0 0

Objective Function 0 2999.39326838 0 0 0

Project NPV Cost O&M

0 -58.85 400 20 0 0 0
1 705.74 1000 50 705.74 1000 50
1 182.30 500 30 182.3 182.3 30
0 -188.28 700 90 0 0 0
1 58.61 2500 150 58.61 58.61 150
3 946.65 1240.91 230

Selected Projects those are maximizing the NPV are Projrct 4, Project 6 and Project 10
2*1)/10% = 10.2%

if Xa = 1 Projext is selected, otherwise not

Xb = 1 Project is selected, otherwise not
4250 Xc = 1 Project is selected, otherwise not
425 Xd =1 Project is selected, otherwise not
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1.188229
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2.525356
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0.506718
0.244057
Project Project cost O&M cost Benefits Discount Rate PV O&M PV Benefit NPV
9.789957883 22181.04 110905.18 87724.14
4 1000 50 250 8.4932389907 14802.78 74013.901 58211.12
12.2443828129 47614.86 238074.293 189459.4
10.5991051921 28541.25 142706.257 113165
9.8743771812 22772.44 113862.216 90089.77
8.8804808027 16703.68 83518.3829 65814.71
9.8543296442 22630.59 113152.954 89522.36
9.6224903498 21052.76 105263.805 83211.04
10.3400782589 26328.93 131644.647 104315.7
10.8734133417 31086.2 155431.007 123344.8
10.3146948302 26121.55 130607.731 103486.2
10.7720365147 30120.35 150601.751 119481.4
9.4334405073 19847.7 99238.4909 78390.79
10.2753859007 25803.6 129017.994 102214.4
9.253527676 18764.83 93824.1414 74059.31
10.0865099992 24328.85 121644.257 96315.41
9.0984269971 17878.72 89393.6204 70514.9
9.4654763213 20046.95 100234.763 79187.81
7.299230472 10197.75 50988.7732 39791.02
11.4897523215 37658.61 188293.026 149634.4
10.1221678758 24600.69 123003.435 97402.75
11.675105068 39893.23 199466.17 158572.9
12.3539314498 49263.03 246315.166 196052.1
6.7145777191 8496.582 42482.912 32986.33
11.3225439943 35749.82 178749.083 141999.3
8.6801606155 15691.75 78458.7749 61767.02
11.328307917 35813.98 179069.921 142255.9
13.0413593777 60980.32 304901.624 242921.3
12.4862765713 51330 256649.994 204320
9.5764710548 20752.87 103764.326 82011.46
8.6902730598 15741.34 78706.6989 61965.36
9.6008943981 20911.49 104557.457 82645.97
10.3046130814 26039.63 130198.153 103158.5
8.9553555224 17098.41 85492.0283 67393.62
9.0915443959 17840.39 89201.9266 70361.54
10.4312983037 27087.83 135439.148 107351.3
9.4819512494 20150.2 100750.989 79600.79
8.1370115165 13245.46 66227.2787 51981.82
9.7291655518 21764.66 108823.281 86058.62
10.7839821592 30232.59 151162.945 119930.4
7.4856473273 10808.76 54043.7849 42235.03
9.7302143129 21771.77 108858.865 86087.09
11.227838311 34711.73 173558.654 137846.9
9.2994190734 19035.31 95176.5599 75141.25
12.1138930606 45723.04 228615.179 181892.1
12.3887605494 49798.83 248994.159 198195.3
11.2549901385 35006.24 175031.201 139025
11.0575519127 32920.1 164600.494 130680.4
11.9606989099 43597.24 217986.186 173388.9
7.9826407071 12622.46 63112.2979 49489.84
7.7695733833 11810.37 59051.8613 46241.49
11.5716443613 38630.12 193150.585 153520.5
11.6500780475 39583.97 197919.85 157335.9
10.5806316494 28377.52 141887.578 112510.1
10.3278444183 26228.77 131143.873 103915.1
8.212549599 13561.4 67807.0117 53245.61
9.4074755705 19687.65 98438.2655 77750.61
8.7156206771 15866.32 79331.5812 62465.26
10.1238970526 24613.95 123069.73 97455.78
11.6271553704 39302.8 196514.016 156211.2
9.513990474 20352.5 101762.51 80410.01
9.2517098235 18754.19 93770.9658 74016.77
10.8024574072 30407 152034.996 120628
10.2093463536 25278.1 126390.499 100112.4
9.8491387032 22594 112970.022 89376.02
8.5270619618 14959.83 74799.1341 58839.31
12.0604250039 44969.63 224848.128 178878.5
8.9487662333 17063.3 85316.4876 67253.19
10.0417151114 23991.6 119957.995 94966.4
9.8630880782 22692.46 113462.275 89769.82
9.2219318301 18580.83 92904.1708 73323.34
9.0568380781 17648.3 88241.518 69593.21
10.9893381048 32228.5 161142.509 127914
9.1737399796 18303.66 91518.2763 72214.62
12.0373829557 44648.76 223243.812 177595
8.15743422 13330.14 66650.7188 52320.58
9.2697195239 18859.82 94299.1123 74439.29
11.7223862869 40484.07 202420.366 160936.3
10.0455042937 24019.95 120099.728 95079.78
10.4670619091 27391.27 136956.375 108565.1
11.0606436263 32951.79 164758.962 130807.2
11.4385727809 37063.83 185319.155 147255.3
13.6705205275 74112.53 370562.669 295450.1
9.6032715899 20927 104634.977 82707.98
13.5260472941 70868.25 354341.253 282473
11.8883156372 42627.3 213136.48 169509.2
9.2410346294 18691.86 93459.3024 73767.44
10.3994620101 26820.53 134102.627 106282.1
11.8413447833 42009.4 210046.987 167037.6
10.6980212675 29434.11 147170.555 116736.4
9.2883942923 18969.98 94849.8959 74879.92
7.778550096 11843.51 59217.5435 46374.03
9.0516573689 17619.81 88099.0427 69479.23
 9.9259011929 23141.1 115705.483 91564.39
9.9539227247 23344.08 116720.406 92376.32
11.3990847947 36611.32 183056.624 145445.3
8.9509643683 17075 85375.0066 67300.01
10.740892574 29829.68 149148.379 118318.7
11.2412027672 34856.38 174281.912 138425.5
13.3164178603 66410.04 332050.215 264640.2
11.3641840724 36215.97 181079.826 143863.9
11.301851853 35520.4 177602 141081.6
11.2741440969 35215.49 176077.467 139862
8.6653961059 15619.64 78098.1964 61478.56
10.637205062 28881.92 144409.589 114527.7
10.447706725 27226.63 136133.165 107906.5
9.0288472418 17494.89 87474.4636 68979.57
9.4704865003 20078.29 100391.472 79313.18
11.8338107566 41911.12 209555.602 166644.5
10.1414070994 24748.61 123743.055 97994.44
8.6134525898 15368.55 76842.7283 60474.18
8.612923946 15366.01 76830.0551 60464.04
11.8518699108 42147.08 210735.378 167588.3
10.7280857517 29710.96 148554.792 117843.8
11.0553469565 32897.51 164487.571 130590.1
11.6727517504 39864.05 199320.258 158456.2
12.7219357435 55226.18 276130.924 219904.7
10.7521919088 29934.81 149674.055 118739.2
7.9620406521 12541.57 62707.8388 49166.27
11.1201245798 33567.49 167837.429 133269.9
11.3320493508 35855.7 179278.488 142422.8
11.1485349205 33865.59 169327.961 134462.4
14.8510264605 106781.4 533906.967 426125.6
9.4382443447 19877.45 99387.2522 78509.8
10.4682658528 27401.55 137007.744 108606.2
8.4773796768 14729.71 73648.5508 57918.84
7.319864633 10263.65 51318.2487 40054.6
12.864758244 57729.1 288645.485 229916.4
11.674034138 39879.95 199399.756 158519.8
8.987005938 17268.05 86340.2409 68072.19
11.7689137621 41073.99 205369.951 163296
8.7334103935 15954.62 79773.0969 62818.48
9.9307254939 23175.92 115879.587 91703.67
11.285371809 35338.73 176693.661 140354.9
8.6274667663 15435.89 77179.4512 60743.56
12.6599923331 54174.46 270872.316 215697.9
10.2482374839 25586.26 127931.324 101345.1
9.5220855453 20403.94 102019.68 80615.74
8.6267675922 15432.52 77162.6171 60730.09
9.1287609191 18048.68 90243.388 71194.71
 9.1641084307 18248.76 91243.7762 71995.02
9.0519370385 17621.35 88106.7281 69485.38
7.5927062223 11176.06 55880.2754 43704.22
11.9095364223 42909.41 214547.053 170637.6
8.3065731612 13965.2 69825.998 54860.8
9.6612177711 21308.48 106542.415 84233.93
9.4189965946 19758.51 98792.54 78034.03
10.2769019147 25815.79 129078.946 102263.2
8.2622148309 13773.22 68866.1108 54092.89
9.139333795 18108.29 90541.4641 71433.17
9.7942450136 22210.7 111053.488 87842.79
9.2913478764 18987.46 94937.3007 74949.84
9.060889877 17670.62 88353.1071 69682.49
9.1604880734 18228.16 91140.8082 71912.65
9.7839313437 22139.41 110697.034 87557.63
9.5084243665 20317.21 101586.056 80268.85
10.9204779872 31545.02 157725.12 125180.1
10.9727114048 32062.13 160310.668 127248.5
9.5261885033 20430.05 102150.274 80720.22
8.5902434219 15257.66 76288.2964 60030.64
7.6519484335 11384.64 56923.184 44538.55
12.1983532861 46938.81 234694.027 186755.2
8.5508509326 15071.28 75356.3942 59285.12
8.3662178238 14227.55 71137.7623 55910.21
12.9753573472 59744.47 298722.34 237977.9
9.1128197507 17959.16 89795.8159 70836.65
8.8329182088 16457.67 82288.3466 64830.68
9.9721728727 23477.24 117386.182 92908.95
13.5520224628 71440.97 357204.827 284763.9
8.6677801189 15631.26 78156.3066 61525.05
7.6270100888 11296.36 56481.8162 44185.45
12.9471721064 59224.33 296121.627 235897.3
9.7453608103 21874.81 109374.068 86499.25
10.1486682777 24804.67 124023.349 98218.68
12.239130481 47537.23 237686.145 189148.9
10.635823767 28869.5 144347.483 114478
7.9579888532 12525.72 62628.5915 49102.87
9.6842495875 21462.03 107310.155 84848.12
11.1387123777 33762.23 168811.143 134048.9
10.891146783 31258.3 156291.477 124033.2
7.9069593792 12327.81 61639.0505 48311.24
7.7850575306 11867.59 59337.9409 46470.35
9.7332463408 21792.36 108961.804 86169.44
9.4160259575 19740.21 98701.0706 77960.86
8.6370301031 15482.02 77410.0775 60928.06
10.6182915513 28712.3 143561.506 113849.2
10.1636681191 24920.87 124604.374 98683.5
 10.721121296 29646.6 148232.983 117586.4
8.4356884397 14539.34 72696.6762 57157.34
11.2885232081 35373.4 176867 140493.6
7.6781555233 11478.14 57390.7206 44912.58
6.6183986544 8245.28 41226.402 31981.12
9.2910903757 18985.94 94929.6773 74943.74
9.8734563178 22765.91 113829.54 90063.63
10.7145592917 29586.08 147930.406 117344.3
12.7621945264 55920.58 279602.914 222682.3
7.6647518452 11430.22 57151.1205 44720.9
8.7621890796 16098.51 80492.5415 63394.03
8.8936269801 16772.32 83861.5865 66089.27
7.968087655 12565.26 62826.2958 49261.04