They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on March 14-17, 2019. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 0%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
100%
unchanged
Don't know/
unsure 0%
2.63
2.50
2.52 2.52 2.45
2.48 2.49
2.39
2.26
2.00
1.81
Average
1.50
2019 Hikes
1.20
1.00
0.74
0.76
2020 Hikes 0.69
0.71
0.50 2020 Cuts 0.66
0.63
2019 Cuts
0.24
0.14
0.00
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
12 30 '19 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20
Survey Dates
Jan 29 Mar 20
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$1.75T 2% Averages
$2.00T 5%
13% for when
$2.25T the Fed
$2.50T 13%
will stop
2%
$2.75T 2%
7%
Jan 29:
$3.00T 20%
5%
2021 Q1
$3.25T 2%
24%
$3.50T 13%
54%
Mar 20:
$3.75T 4%
28% 2020 Q1
$4.00T 2%
Don't know/unsure
4. The Fed has indicated that it will stop its balance sheet
reduction later this year. I ...
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Agree 55%
Disagree:
Reductions
should
continue 41%
beyond
2019
Disagree:
Reductions
should 0%
end
earlier
Disagree:
For some
other 2%
reason
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure
Other reason for disagreement: Too high a level. Just keeping the equity markets
afloat.
It's the
right move 81%
The Fed
should
continue 14%
hiking
The Fed
should've
gone
further 5%
and cut
rates
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
Approve Disapprove
100%
90%
80%
70%
66%
63% 61%
58% 59%
60% 57%
52% 51%
50%
50% 54%
43%
40% 36% 43%
31% 32% 32%
29% 30%
30%
29% 24%
26%
20%
23% 22% 21%
10%
0%
Jun Jul Sep Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
13 25 19 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20
'17 '18 '19
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New U.S.
tariffs imposed 2%
on China
A trade agreement
between China 79%
and the U.S.
An agreement
to continue
talks without 17%
a new agreement
Don't know/unsure 2%
8. How have your 2019 and 2020 forecasts for GDP and
inflation been affected by recently enacted U.S. tariffs
and retaliatory tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as
incremental change of forecast in percentage points)
Average responses:
Survey Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 12 Jan 29 Mar 20
date
Yes 38%
No 60%
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure
Average:
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1% 13%
+0.37%
0.2% 13%
0.3% 25%
0.4% 6%
0.5% 13%
0.6%
0.7% 13%
0.8% 6%
0.9%
1.0% 6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Higher consumer
price inflation 10%
Lower corporate
profits 27%
Both higher
inflation and 27%
lower profits
Neither higher
inflation nor 34%
lower profits
Don't know/
unsure 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
-1.0%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.7%
Average:
-0.6%
29%
-0.5%
-0.32%
-0.4% 7%
-0.3% 31%
-0.2% 26%
-0.1% 7%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Significant
role 45%
Modest
role 48%
No role
at all 7%
Don't
know/ 0%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Likely 7%
Unlikely 79%
Don't
know/ 14%
unsure
16. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
3,200
3038
3005
2975
3,000 2946
2928 2936 2925
2879
2836 2846
2,800
2862 2861
2774
2750
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20
2018 2019
Survey Dates
4.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20
2018 Survey Dates 2019
18. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
3.1%
Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2021
3.04%
3.01%
2.98%
3.0% 2.99%
2.87% 2.98%
2.90%
2.93%
2.9% 2.86% 2.95%
2.92%
2.87%
2.85%
2.8%
2.73% 2.80% 2.74%
2.70% 2.70%
2.68% 2.69% 2.66%
2.7% 2.67%
2.67% 2.67%
2.65%
2.60%
2.6%
2.56%
2.56%
2.54%
2.5%
2.49%
2.49%
2.51%
2.4% 2.44%
2.42%
2.3%
2.2% 2.22%
2.1%
Jan Jan Mar Jan
Nov Dec Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Mar
31 30 ch 29
1 13 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 1 12 31 25 7 18 20
'17 '18 20 '19
Dec 31, 2019 2.22 2.67 2.70 2.73 2.68 2.56 2.42 2.49 2.60 2.54 2.80 2.86 2.87 2.98 2.93 3.01 3.04 2.69 2.66 2.56
Dec 31, 2020 2.70 2.67 2.90 2.85 2.87 2.95 2.92 2.98 2.99 2.74 2.65 2.51
Dec 31, 2021 2.67 2.49 2.44
19. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.34%
3.30% 3.29%
3.20% 3.24%
3.17%
3.27%
3.11% 3.18% 3.21%
3.06% 3.11%
3.16%
2.98%
3.0% 3.04% 2.95% 2.94%
2.98%
2.92%
2.94%
2.91% 2.86%
2.85% 2.73% 2.85%
2.79% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Aug 20
Aug 25
Aug 24
Mar 17
Mar 15
Mar 14
March 20
Mar 20
May 2
May 1
Nov 1
Nov 7
Jan 29
Jan 27, '15
Sept 16
Jan 31 '17
Apr 28
Apr 26
Oct 28
Oct 27
Jan 26 '16
Oct 31
Jan 30 '18
Jun 16
Jun 14
Jun 13
Jun 12
Sep 16
Sep 20
Sep 19
Sep 25
Jul 28
Jul 26
Jul 25
Jul 31
Dec 16
Dec 15
Dec 13
Dec 12
Dec 18
Survey Dates
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5% 2.44%
2.4%
2.3%
2.33% 2.31%
2.2%
2.1% 2.05%
2.0%
1.98%
1.9%
1.8%
1.81%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
Dec 18 Jan 29 '19 Mar 20
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.85%
2.80%
2.78%
2.8% 2.75%
2.72%
2.70%
2.66% 2.66%
2.6%
2.56% 2.52%
2.4%
2.2% 2.25%
2.06% 2.07%
2.0%
1.96%
1.8%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20
'18 '19
2.6%
2.54%
2.51%
2.48%
2.5% 2.46%
2.41%
2.4% 2.40%
2.40%
2.38%
2.3%
2.26%
2.23%
2.2% 2.20%
2.1%
2.08%
2.05%
2.0%
1.9% 1.90%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20
2018 2019
Survey Dates
2019 2020
4.60%
4.40%
4.20%
4.00% 3.96%
3.93% 3.93%
3.79%
3.80%
3.80%
3.77%
3.40%
3.20%
3.00%
Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 18 Jan 29 Mar
'19 20
Survey Dates
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Worker shortage
Slow job growth
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1 0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
1 3 1
Jun 12 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 8 8 4 0
Jul 31 5 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 8 0
•
•
•
•
Nov 7
Jan 29
Dec 18
Mar 20
Sep 25
Survey Date
Page 26 of 35
5
0
0
0
2
European recession/financial crisis
2
0
2
0
2
Tax/regulatory policies
2
2
2
3
2
Slow job growth
Other responses:
Policy mistake
Falling oil prices
0
0
0
7
9
Inflation
0
0
0
0
0
Deflation
0
0
0
0
0
Debt ceiling
0
2
0
0
2
Deficits
FED SURVEY
5
2
0
1
0
1
2
Rise in interest rates
5
7
7
3
7
Geopolitical risks
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
Immigration policy
7
2
9
2
1
3
4
1
6
2
Trump's temperament
2
0
0
0
0
Overvaluation of equities
Worker shortage
7
6
1
9
1
7
1
2
2
Other
0
0
2
0
2
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
March 20, 2019
36.1%
This survey:
24.4%
35%
34.0%
Highest since
January 2016
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
10%
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Dec-12
Dec-17
Dec-11
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-18
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Au g-14
Au g-11
Au g-12
Au g-13
Au g-15
Au g-16
Au g-17
Au g-18
Oct -13
Oct -18
Oct -11
Oct -12
Oct -14
Oct -15
Oct -16
Oct -17
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Currencies
Other
0%
14%
Fixed Income
17%
Economics
57%
Equities
12%
Comments: