Abstract:ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
andthei ssuesthatl edto outl ineitsapproachf rame,aswel laswhatef fectscoul dhavetheactualeconomi c
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
economi ccri sesinthel astf ew years.
ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ£ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ
Keywords: econom ic crisis, global financial system , financial instability, portfolio, return,
risk, M arkow itz.
No. 9 ~ 2009
70 Current Economic Crisis
Firstly, after a period of sequential sub- Regarding the issues related to infor-
stantial capital in-flows, investors (internal, mational asymmetry, the main purpose for
as well as external) have the tendency to re- financial intermediaries such as commercial
duce the volume of assets held in the affect- banks, insurance companies, mutual funds
ed country as a response to the manifested or pension funds, from which banks play the
influences. most important role, is to hold the capacity
Secondly, after analyzing the economic as well as the economic incentives to address
situation of the respective country, they can- the problems of informational asymmetry.
alize their attention towards the behavior of The natural advantages of banks in
the other investors. Once the information is collecting information and reducing infor-
disseminated a panic phenomenon settles mation asymmetry problems are the ones
and its propagation is done rapidly leading that can explain why they hold such an im-
to interpret the crisis in terms of liquidity. portant role on the financial markets in the
Thirdly, the capital withdrawal and world. Once banks do not posses the capac-
the sudden changes of interest rates as well ity to make financial intermediation and give
as the restricted access to capital, generates loans, investments and aggregate economic
general weakness, the financial markets re- activity reduction will be produced. The lack
of credits will determine firms and individu-
sponse being exacerbated. The real deprecia-
als to cut down on their expenses, resulting
tion of the interest rate leads to the revenue
in a contraction of the economic activity.
and real savings reduction.
The triggering factor of the actual eco-
So, in order to understand the economic
nomic crisis has been precisely the failure
crises each of these three elements has a spe-
of the fourth bank in America as dimension,
cial importance. Also very important in the
Lehman Brothers Holdings. Its disappear-
economic crises analysis is the financial insta-
ance from the market lead to falls on the
bility phenomenon, that eases the installation
European and Asian stock exchanges, the
of a financial crisis and leads to the amplifica-
Bucharest Stock Exchange Indexes also deep-
tion of crisis effects.
ing their losses on the correlation frame with
the evolution of the external markets.
Śǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱ
śǯȱȱ £ȱȱȱ
As we have already underlined, the es- portfolio management model
sential function of the financial markets is to As we already mentioned the purpose
canalize funds towards individuals or firms of this paper is to underline the present in-
that hold productive investment opportuni- stability background of the Romanian capital
ties. In the case that the financial system fails market, financial instability representing the
to realize its objective, the economy does not stimulus that led to the economic crisis in our
function properly, and economic growth is country.
affected. So, the financial system has to con- So, starting from the basic hypothesis
front itself with issues regarding information of the Markowitz Model we have tried to
asymmetry.
No. 9 ~ 2009
Current Economic Crisis 71
determine two minimum variance portfolios risk for a given expected return and that the
ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱřȱ aggregation of the portfolio weights must
ȱŘŖŖŗȮŗŘȱȱŘŖŖŞǼǰȱȱ equal one, and short sales are not allowed
ŝȱȱȱ ȱȱDZȱśȱȱ meaning that all portfolio weights must be
from the financial investment sector: bigger or equal to zero.
ȊȱSIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1), SIF Moldova We have computed the minimum vari-
ǻŘǼǰȱȱȱǻřǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱŖǯŖŝŞŝƖ that gives the title
ȱǻŚǼǰȱȱȱǻśǼDzȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱŘǯŞŖŜŗƖȱ
ȊȱAnd 2 stocks from the banking, insur- ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱŖǯŚşşŝƖǯȱȱ
ance and financial services sector: have come to the conclusion that the follow-
ȊȱBRD Groupe Société Générale (BRD) ing title combination leads to the obtained re-
and Transilvania Bank (TLV). DZȱŗŚǯŘƖȱŗǰȱŗŖǯřŚƖȱřǰȱŗŖǯśŜƖȱśǰȱ
We have chosen these sectors because ŘŚǯŜřƖȱ and ŚŖǯŘŝƖȱ. According to
we consider them to be fit to test whether the results we can appreciate that for the
financial instability is present or not on the given period of time the optimal investment
ȱȱȱȱ ȱŘŖŖŝǰȱ possibility is to invest in the banking, insur-
the year presumably first signs of instabil- ance and financial services sector, due to the
ity have appeared. So, the initial time hori- fact that the feedback given by the capital
£ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȬDZȱřȱ
market leads to this conclusion.
ȱŘŖŖŗȱȮȱŗşȱȱŘŖŖŜǰȱřȱ¢ȱ
The second part of the analysis lied in
ŘŖŖŝȱȮȱŗŘȱȱŘŖŖŞǯȱȱ ȱȱ
the application of the model for the following
bases led to the calculation of the returns giv-
ȱȱDZȱřȱ¢ȱŘŖŖŝȱȮȱŗŘȱȱ
en by the titles, the formula used to compute
ŘŖŖŞǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
the results being
weights, the optimization process leading to
ȱ ȱDZȱŘśǯŗŞƖȱŗǰȱřǯŝƖȱŚǰȱ
ŘşǯşŘƖȱśǰȱŗŘǯŜŘƖȱȱȱŘŞǯśŞƖȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱŖǯřŘŝŚƖȱ
Firstly we have applied the model for
presents the above title combination with
ȱȱȱȱ DZȱřȱȱŘŖŖŗȱȮȱ
ȱȱȱȱśǯŝŘŗśƖȱȱȱȱ¡ -
ŗşȱȱŘŖŖŜǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱŖǯŚŖśśƖǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
minimum variance portfolio we have parted
observed this time the optimal investment
from the following initial combination of ti-
choice is to invest more in the financial in-
DZȱŗŚƖȱŗǰȱŗŚƖȱŘǰȱŗŚƖȱřǰȱŗŚƖȱŚǰȱ
ŗŚƖȱśǰȱŗśƖȱ ȱŗśƖȱȱ ȱȱ vestments sector, and the expected portfolio
purpose to minimize the risk of the portfolio, return is negative fact that clearly indicates a
this type of scenario being specific for the in- reduction in the expected return in compari-
vestors that have strong risk aversion. son to the preceding analysis.
In order to optimize the financial results
ȱȱȱȃȱ¡ȱȄȱȱ 6. Conclusions
into consideration the fact that an asset port-
On the current economic background,
folio is optimal when it offers the smallest
the global economy is splintered by the
No. 9 ~ 2009
72 Current Economic Crisis
effects of an economic crisis without prec- asymmetry. Once they can no further carry
edent in the history of the last century. The on their activity an economic blocking is pro-
main occupation of researchers along this duced that spreads towards all the economic
century has been to determine the conceptu- sectors on the level of a country’s national
al and practical frame for the global financial economy, afterwards following the countries
¢ǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ that had held till then economical relation-
the factor that led to a harsh recession that ships with the country initially affected.
started in the United States, spreading after- According to the analysis done in this
wards in all the other countries. So, short paper we can appreciate that the national
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ capital market has experienced reductions in
crashed significant losses occurred also for stock returns in the last two years, especially
the European and Asian stock exchanges, in- in the banking, insurance and financial ser-
cluding the Bucharest Stock Exchange. vices domain, the investors tending to posses
Banks, financial intermediation in- more confidence in the domain of the finan-
stitutions, are the ones that hold one of the cial investments sector, for example.
most important roles of the world’s financial All in all we conclude that the effects
markets, because they can gather informa- of the global economic crisis have put their
tion and reduce problems of informational print on the Romanian financial system.
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No. 9 ~ 2009