2nd Korean National

Workshop

MAC of GHG in Korea

15 October 2010

NOH, DONG-
DONG-WOON

1
 Contents

▪ Model
▪ Reference Energy System
▪ GHG Mitigation Options
▪ MAC
▪ conclusion

2
 Introduction
- cost
cost--effective achievement of voluntary reduction target
; 30% reduction compared to BAU by 2020

- contribution of GHG reduction to Green Growth

; economic growth with low-
low-carbon system

- estimation of MAC in Korea

; decision for climate change policy choice

- MAC using MARKAL in 2020

; bottom-
bottom-up estimation

3
 Model
- MARKAL

- MARKAL(MARKet ALlocation)
; least-
least-cost solution with constraints
; technology-
technology-rich bottom-
bottom-up optimization model

- structure of MARKAL
; objective function of cost
; constraints of energy and environment
; decision variables of technology, energy supply, etc.

4
 Model
- RES

- system of energy economy

; sources(import, domestic production,)
; commodities(energies, materials, emissions,)
; technology(resource, conversion, process, demand)
; demand(energy service)
; sinks(export, sinks,)

- Reference Energy System

; network diagram of energy and material flow

5
 Model
- Demand

- conversion sector : final demand in consumption sector

; power : electricity production

sector Final demand

Power Production of electricity

Oil refining Oil products

conversion
Urban gas Natural gas consumption

District heatin Production of heat

6
 Model
- Demand

- industry sector : production

; agriculture/fishery/mining
; manufacturing
- cement
- steel and iron
- petrochemical
- paper & pulp
- automobile manufacturing
- other manufacturing

7
 Model
- Demand

- residential, commercial sector

; energy use per household for heating, cooling, appliance,
lighting, cooking/power
- transport
; road(commercial, non-
non-commercial) : registered automobiles
; railroad(passengers, freight, subway, KTX) : energy use per
transported
passengers/freights
; sea(passengers, freight)
; air(passengers for int’l & domestic)

8
 Mitigation Options
- Conversion sector

- new technologies, fuel switch, CCS, fuelcell

fuelcell,, CHP

sector Mitigation options

District heating -
conversi Power New tech., fuel switch, CCS, fuelcell
on Oil refining New tech.,CHP, fuel switch
Urban gas -

9
 Mitigation Options
- Industry sector

- new technologies, fuel switch, CCS, material substitution, CHP

sector Mitigation options

New tech., CHP, fuel switch, material
Cement
substitution, CCS
Steel & iron New tech., CHP, fuel switch, CCS
industry Paper & pulp New tech., CHP, fuel switch
Petrochemical New tech., CHP, fuel switch, CCS
Automobile
New tech., CHP, material substitution
manufacturing
10
 Mitigation Options
- Industry sector

- fuel switch in industry sector

sector Mitigation options

Sub. 5% of bituminous coal
Cement
consumption by waste plastic in 2015
Steel & iron Sub. all B-C by LNG in 2015
industry Paper & pulp Sub. all B-C by LNG in 2015
Petrochemical Sub. all B-C by LNG in 2020
Automobile
-
manufacturing
11
 Mitigation Options
- Residential/Commercial sector

- efficient appliances(equipment), fuelcell

sector Mitigation options

Cooking -
Heating Efficient material

Residential/ Cooling Efficient equipment

commercial Appliances Efficient appliances
Lighting Efficient lighting(LED,)
energy Fuelcell(electricity, heat)
12
 Mitigation Options
- Transport sector

- bio
bio--fuel, share of clean car

sector Mitigation options

Passenger car Hybrid, electric car, fuelcell car

Transport/r
Truck Bio-diesel, fuelcell truck
oad

Bus Bio-diesel, fuelcell bus

13
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Energy Demand of Baseloine

- primary energy demand increase at 1.0% annually by 2050

; renewable, nuclear, LNG increase at high speed
; oil demand increase at low speed

14
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Energy Demand(ths TOE)

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal 54,724 68,701 83,605 87,680 88,722 86,579 1.0%

Oil 100,970 103,492 119,228 122,992 123,712 121,667 0.4%

LNG 27,376 40,458 43,112 49,244 51,413 49,268 1.3%

Hydro 1,290 1,462 1,331 1,357 1,359 1,364 0.1%
Nuclear 36,597 34,101 62,237 76,725 82,564 84,811 1.9%
Renew
3,863 4,630 7,513 9,940 13,373 17,116 3.4%
able
total 224,820 252,843 317,025 347,939 361,142 360,805 1.1%

15
 Mitigation potential and cost
- GHG Emission

- GHG emission increase at 0.5% annually by 2050

; increasing rate is lower than energy, low carbon trend
; commercial(1.7%), conversion(1.3%), transport(0.8%),
industry(0.1%), residential(0.0%)

16
 Mitigation potential and cost
- GHG Emission(ths. CO2 ton)

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(conv.) 190,220 243,827 274,314 306,160 331,139 333,425 1.3%

Industry 268,561 304,402 325,170 318,969 305,074 282,586 0.1%

Commercial 63,574 77,583 90,770 110,927 127,606 138,718 1.7%

Public 15,780 19,065 18,725 20,618 21,665 21,188 0.7%

Residential 74,591 80,545 84,976 87,748 83,006 73,901 0.0%

Transport 101,271 114,593 136,865 146,878 148,404 145,016 0.8%

Total 523,777 596,189 656,507 685,141 685,755 661,409 0.5%

17
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Conversion sector

- 55,216 ths,CO2 ton in 2020, 20.4% of GHG emission(274,314 ths

ths))
; CCS has the largest mitigation potential in conversion

sector options potential cost($1,000/CO2ton)

New tech. -181 -0.184
CHP -138 -0.122
Oil refining
LNG -470 0.170
Sub-total -789
Fuelcell -309 -0.023
CCS -54,119 0.018
power
Loss n.a n.a
Sub-total -54,428
18
(sum) -55,216
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Conversion sector

- new tech, CHP(oil refining), fuelcell

fuelcell,, CCS(power), LNG(oil refining)
; LNG is not effective under current carbon market
전환부문 감축수단별 비용
0.200

0.150

0.100

0.050

-0.050 -181 -319 -627 -54,746 -55,216

-0.100

-0.150

-0.200

-0.250

19
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Industry sector

- 5,613 ths CO2 ton(2.2% of 325,170 ths

ths.. Co2 ton) in 2020
; cement(50%), petrochemical(20%), paper(15%), steel(10%)

sector options potential cost($1,000/CO2ton)

PVC -40 -0.156
automobile CHP -13 -0.117
sub -53
CHP -179 -0.160
Waste plastic -664 -0.023
cement
slag -2,239 -0.015
sub -3,082
New. tech -6 -0.420
CHP -185 -0.269
petrochemical
LNG -851 0.170
20 sub -1,043
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Industry sector

- slag has the largest mitigation potential in industry

; CCS is not commercialized before 2020
; options ex LNG is no regret (average cost is low)

sector options potential cost($1,000/CO2ton)

CHP -209 -0.125
New. tech -449 -0.068
Pulp&paper
LNG -154 0.170
sub -812
New. tech -30 -0.194
CHP -439 -0.174
Iron&steel
LNG -155 0.170
sub -624
(industry) -5,613
21
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Industry sector

산업부문의 감축수단별 평균비용

0.200

0.100

-0.100

-0.200

-0.300

-0.400

-0.500
22
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Commercial sector

- 29,481 ths
ths.. CO2 ton(32.4% of 90,770 ths CO2) in 2020
; lighting has the largest mitigation potential in conversion
; high cost with high potential

sector options potential cost($1,000/CO2ton)

Fuel-cell -87 -0.036

Heating -9,133 0.015

commercial
Cooling -7,058 0.804

lighting -13,203 67.097

(sub) 29,481

23
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Commercial sector

- 29,481 ths
ths.. CO2 ton(32.4% of 90,770 ths CO2) in 2020
; lighting has the largest mitigation potential in conversion
; high cost with high potential(10.2% without high cost options)

상업부문 감축수단별 평균비용

80.000

70.000

60.000

50.000

40.000

30.000

20.000

10.000

-10.000 -87 -9,220 -16,278 -29,481

24
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Residential sector

- 10,831 ths
ths.. CO2 ton(12.8% of 84,976 ths
ths)) in 2020
; efficient heating has the largest potential

sector options potential cost($1,000/CO2ton)

CFL -173 -0.170
fluorescent -949 -0.150
White light -242 -0.062
fuelcell -50 -0.010
residential heating -8,295 0.496
airconditioner -169 1.717
refrigerator -466 6.116
Washing machine -196 8.491
TV-1 -291 13.252
25 (sub) -10,831
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Residential sector

- 10,831 ths
ths.. CO2 ton(12.8% of 84,976 ths
ths)) in 2020
; efficient heating has the largest potential
; fuelcell and efficient light have minus cost
가정부문의 온실가스 감축수단별 평균비용
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
-
-2.000

26
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Transport sector

- 11,292 ths
ths.. CO2 ton(8.3% of 136,865 ths
ths)) in 2020
; private passenger car(52%) has the largest potential

sector options potential cost($1,000/CO2ton)

Priv. bus -626 -8.929

Comm. Truck -1,055 -5.013

Comm. Bus -1,180 -4.503

transport
Priv. truck -1,952 -2.894
Taxi -604 0.779
Priv. pass. car -5,875 2.524

(sub) -11,292
27
 Mitigation potential and cost
- Transport sector

- significant potential with low cost(total average cost is minus)

수송부문의 감축수단별 감축비용

4.000

2.000

-
-626 -1,681 -2,861 -4,813 -5,418 -11,292
-2.000

-4.000

-6.000

-8.000

-10.000
28
 Mitigation potential and cost
- national potential(fuel combustion)

- 112,434 ths
ths.. CO2 ton(17.1% of 656,507 ths
ths)) in 2020
; conversion(49%), commercial(26%), transport(10%),
residential(10% each), industry(5%)
Share of
sector potential % of emission
potential
conversion -55,216 -8.4% 49.1%
industry -5,613 -0.9% 5.0%
commercial -29,481 -4.5% 26.2%
residential -10,831 -1.6% 9.6%
transport -11,292 -1.7% 10.0%
total -112,434 -17.1% 100.0%
29
 Mitigation potential and cost
- national potential(fuel combustion)

- 5% potential with $15/CO2 ton of MC, low average cost

; 10% with $18 of MC, low average cost
; 14% with minus average cost(2% without transport potential)
; 17% with high MC, high average cost
Potential of emission MC($1,000/CO2ton) AC($1,000/CO2ton)
-3.1% 0.015 -1.083

-11.4% 0.018 -0.285

-14.1% 1.717 -0.113

-15.0% 2.524 0.045

-17.1% 67.097 7.993

30
 Mitigation potential and cost
- national potential(fuel combustion)

- transport and conversion sector is low cost with high potential

; residential and commercial sector with high cost
; industry has low potential with low cost
감축수단별 감축비용
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
-
-2.000
-4.000
-6.000
-8.000
-10.000

31
 Mitigation potential and cost
- national potential(fuel combustion)

- 14% potential with minus average cost

; transport, conversion sector
평균 감축비용
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
-
-2.000
-4.000
-6.000
-8.000
-10.000

32
 conclusion
- transport and conversion sector have cost-cost-effective large potential
; residential and commercial have high-
high-cost large potential
; industry has cost-
cost-effective small potential
- data on cost is essential for cost-
cost-effectiveness

33