Very few people will achieve 20-25%. At the same time many don’t even make the
14-15% we’re talking about.
To capture the market rate of return, is not very difficult.
But in pursuit of making excess over market, you might end up not even making the
market returns. It requires a lot more effort and time to make excess over market.
If you are happy with market returns, you should just invest in a good index fund. Be
prepared to face volatilities - don’t try to time the market. Just put in a equal amount of
money regardless of market conditions.
If you do this carefully, you should be able to capture the market rate of return. And this
should be as safe as an FD with a premium over the interest rate.
Over 30 years, (BSE Sensex)
In 1st 10 years, market went up 18.4% or 5.4x
In next 10 years, it gave 9.4% and 2.5x
In last 10 years, it gave 15.6% or 4.3x
3 components of Equity Returns
What is a Cash Call?
Some of you have been investing for 30 years or long periods of time - once in a while
there are periods where the market declines significantly
In my own experience, It was 1988 and I was pretty such I didn’t want to get into a job. So
I slowly got drifted into stocks and the previous 2 years the market fell 50-60%.
Now because it was a market with so much value and I would buy any stock and it would
eventually go up. As the Index advanced to 1600 from 400 and went up to 4600 in 4
years time, you can imagine that any stock would give you 3x, 4x or even 10x. But being
a first time investors, 2 things happened.
When in 1992, when the Index reached major levels and everyone was excited, I was
uncomfortable and I exited. And when the crash actually happened, I was protected
because I protected all my gains. It was common to see portfolios go down by 50-60%.
The fact that we made a cash call at the end of 1992, made a huge difference.
I was looking at MRF, saw the balance sheet and asked the broker to buy the stock.
Those days, the settlement was poor so I didn’t get delivery in 2 months time also. So my
broker called up after it went up 100% and asked if we can sell and he would just pay the
difference. I exited but eventually it went up further by 4-5x.
At the end of 1992 bull market, I was happy that my profits were booked, but had I not
sold I would’ve made 10x over further periods.
When the 2nd bull market happened (lot of IPOs, mid-caps and FIIs coming in) - but this
time based on my experience of 1988-1992 and I wanted more profit than last time. This
time I said I won’t sell and keep it for long, but the quality of stocks wasn’t so good.
I bought a stock at 17 and it went up 10x to 170-180, but I said I don’t want to sell. The
company was into photographic films, and the industry was bleak, the promoter was
getting into other business and when the bull market was over it went back to 17.
I’m very happy it happened in 1994-1995, although I didn’t make money - I understood
that if you are Warren Buffett and have lot of money and quality shares, you can hold on
forever. But otherwise, you should protect your profits. If a stock has given 400-500%,
then don’t give back all the profits to the market. Keep some for yourself.
Hold, but not forever.
When the 3rd bull market started (1998-2000), although the index didn’t capture, many
individual stocks went up 1000% like Infosys. This time, i knew the companies, what they
were doing and when to protect profits. I could put many of my thought process in place.
This time I didn’t have a portfolio allocation strategy - those days if you liked a share you
would buy some shares of it. But you would never say I like this company so let me put
10% of money, or this is a risky bet so let me put 2% of money. It was a very random
process. At the end of the 2000 bull market, I was able to get out in time and capture a
good portion of profits.
Stock selection is not of much use if you select a great stock but put only 1% of your
money.
You gotta have a system, where you don’t lose money if you are wrong.
If you are right, you make a lot of money. If you are wrong you shouldn’t lose a lot of
money.
Returns in Bull Markets
1988-1992 - 85% CAGR
1993-1997 - 21%
1998-2000 - 71%
2003-2008 - 49%
2008-2015 - 23%
Average Weighted Return - 43%
I’m not saying you can make 40%+ returns always, but if you manage to stay out of bear
markets and make the best of bull markets, you can make a significant return.
A lot of people look at the market via political happenings, charts, etc. But a simple way is
to see market P/E
Market is trading at 9.5x - 28x earnings, so if you are at 25x-30x earnings you need to
sort of be ready to face a crash.
Also, the next bull market market might not push the same stocks again. When
1998-2000, the IT stocks made money. In 2003-2008, it was infra, power that made
money. So your ability to identify the right stocks is crucial.
Stock Selection
If I go back and look, not just good quality, even poor quality companies make money in
bull markets. Answer is not to buy poor quality stocks, but rather at what stage of the
market are we at.
If you are investing in MF or PMS - look at the styles of the fund managers and see if that
suits you. MF is same as stock selection, just that it is delegated.
Most people think are good at stock picking, but it requires time, effort and always the
first stages will be filled with mistakes. It is worth picking only if you have time and
inclination. But is it worth it?
Over 30 years, you would’ve made 14% (56x) to 20% (237x) to 30% (2620x). And I know
people who have made such returns.
Last session - does stock picking work?
Most academicians will say it doesn’t.
If you see the returns, there can be a huge variance in returns of best and worst stocks.
Best 10% of stocks in last 5 years were 10 baggers
best 25% gave 6x
top 50% gave 4x
You might think highest returns are achieved only by mid caps, but that isn’t true.
Outperformance comes in all segments.
A word of warning - more investors lose money by adverse selection than positive
selection. So either give responsibility to a fund manager or give it time and effort.
Quick thoughts on stock picking
● Patience is a virtue
● Select a style that works for you
● Must be based on own work
● Require active research
● Position sizing is important
● Not just stock picking but what you do after - scaling up and weeding out
● There is no sure/simple formula - many different approaches can work
What has worked
● I dint like low ROE, frequent dilutions - many such companies have also given
returns but it must suit ones style
● Even if its a good quality company, when you buy matters. You could’ve bought
bosch at 22x or 60x makes a big difference to your returns
● Mid Caps have better opportunities because it is under-researched.
● Spend time on skill development
Summing up
Questions
Q. Do you use technicals to buy commodity companies?
A. It is not about commodity companies, but any stock - you can use technicals to buy
any company you like and enhance your returns. I use approach of value - so if I feel a
stock should trade 50x earnings, and it trades at 50x earnings - then you must exit. At
25x or 30x, even if you made money, you might exit and leave money on the table. So
we use a technical indicator to see if an exit makes sense.
Q. In your earlier times, was info available only on Dalal Street or what was source of
information?
A. Its true, the Dalal Street gave a lot of advantage. Today there is no location for the
market.
Speaker #2 Nilesh Shah (MD of Kotak Mahindra AMC)
● Equity market or any market is a battlefield. There is no bullet proof strategy there.
● Karna was given kavach by non other than Surya bhagwan. Yet it couldn’t protect
him when he was on the wrong side.
● Abhimanyu was on the right side - Kunti mata gave him Raksha bandana, yet that
couldn’t save him.
● Even Hercules was blessed, yet he died.
● Experience suggests that if you are going into the battlefield, be prepared to get
some blows, because only that will give you money.
Lets talk about turbulent times.
There was this movie called The Perfect Storm by George Clooney. Last 15 years, indian
markets faced many storms - oil rose $55 to $100+ and went back to $55.
Oil price movement is a big drag on the Indian economy. Oil price goes up, India comes
down, Oil price goes down, India goes up.
Rupee went down 16% and up 4%.
Banking liquidity which was in excesss in first half of 2018, has been tightened and looks
like it will be neutral soon.
We had a default by ILFS and hopefully it is behind us.
FIIs booked profits throughout 2018 because we were giving 40% return in $ terms.
All this resulted in corrections in 2018-2019. Fortunately there has been a large cap rally
but small and mid cap has not moved.
Does Election matters over longer term?
No. Work of government matters. We have seen a coalition government do well.
In 2004, run up to election was bullish but on election day we saw market falling 14-15%,
but beyond that we saw a historic bull market.
2009 was opposite - market courtesy Lehmann was correcting, but election day, it shot
up.
2013-2014 - it was different. 6 months before election, market was bullish and it
continued. Sensex was NDA vote count x 100 or NDA vote count was Sensex by 100.
This time you know what the sensex is at ;)
in 2019, will it be something else?
Best way to predict is to consult your astrologer. Or try to play contra.
If market goes up, market is discounting a stable government. If we indeed get a stable
government, market will jump from 40-42K to 45K.
If we get a bad government, market might fall to 30K.
Its worth playing contra, just to safeguard against unlikely scenario.
If market comes down towards elections, and if a stable government comes, then market
might circuit up.
If you bet on a Stable Government - worth taking risks Small Cap, Capital Goods, Infra
If Khichdi Colation Government - look at IT, Pharma, etc
Market Drivers
I’m reasonably confident FIIs will believe in India. Economist came up with an article “Why
foreign investors are losing interest in India” - thats when I decided FIIs will continue to
invest in India.
Mutual fund distributors will play a role - despite falling returns, people have been
holding on to their investments.
Profits will grow faster
Typically driven by 9 set of companies - 3 banks (SBI, Axis and ICICI) will support very
well. Tata Steel and Motors will continue to support. Pharma - Sun, Lupin, Reddy etc will
do better results in FY 19 than FY 18. 4th sector - Telecom will do well as the race to the
bottom will stop. Combination of these companies will result in better profitability.
Compared to other peercountries, India’s earnings growth will outperform other
countries. That along with the Economist article will result in better FII flows.
P/B ratio premium have also come to a fair value. Good time to be neutral in equity.
Is there a slow down?
1. Diversity - richest state Delhi is as rich as Indonesia and poorest state is as poor as
Nepal. Smallest state is as small as Estonia and largest is as big as Brazil.
Someone running India, has to run Indonesia to Nepal to Estonia to Brazil.
2. India is truly a continent. A large portion of India is living like Uganda, one portion
like Sri Lanka and one luxurious like France.
3. In 2004 - Uganda was 83%, SL was 17% and France was 0.5%
4. In 2017 - Uganda 73%, SL 26% and France 1%
So how do we improve? By taking government out of business. “Minimum government,
maximum governance”.
India for some reason has always accepted short term gain for long term pain - we grew
our per capita GDP by 1x in 1960-2017, lowest amongst all peers. Bangladesh will also
overtake us.
We need to change this to short term pain for long term gain. And we are seeing this
happening.
Other thing is - borrowing was a luxury - today best of borrowers are losing their
companies thanks to insolvency laws. And this indication of short term pain for long term
gain is what is supporting markets today.
Risk - what we shouldn’t do
● One who can say “NO” when value isn’t available all the time and he/she wants
his “Margin of Safety”
● He/she is a firm believer in a business cycle
● Markets generally offer sensible prices, there have been and will continue to be
bouts of extreme optimism and pessimism - Markets have overall been up from
1980, but if you zoom the graph there are bear cycles too
Value Investing through turbulence - in turbulence zones is when value investing works.
● Behavioral Edge - Experience, Greed & Fear, Expectation sense, Facts, Timing
● Analytical Edge - Its not about having public information but how you process it -
Information weight, confirmation bias, time scale, market narrative change, update
views more effectively
● Information Edge - we tend to under-emphasise - Paying attention, cost involved,
legally available, slow reflection
When crude went up, customer preference went towards diesel vehicles - we knew that
it is not possible to make small engines. But the whole starting point of a diesel auto
cycle is it relies on the oil bursting, it puts more pressure on the battery - the wear and
tear is higher. Arama Raja was an up and coming business and the reality is Exide and
Amara Raja don’t make money by selling batteries to OEMs, but rather by after sales.
There’s a 70% chance that the guy will buy the same battery that is already fitted. OEM
sales thus are a lead indicator of what profits can come in 3-5 years down the line.
We were quite beat about it and built a position. It did well and became market leader
ahead of Exdie.
Sadbhav Engineering - it is important for an investor to be able to sell. In Sadbhav - its a
normal construction company available at good valuation. It gave 4x but eventually fell,
but thankfully we sold at regular intervals at peak. If we didn’t sell, it would’ve
underperformed the index too.
Bharat Forge - Europe, China and US business went into trouble. Even India was in
trouble. But very capable company, and few manufacturing companies who spent on
R&D. Turbulence is where we benefitted. It gave 335% returns in 5 years..
Leaving a thought for you - NTPC - prices have been falling. Although it was mentioned
god is Indian because we have solar energy (reference to Nilesh Shah), but we also have
a lot of coal. So this looks interesting to me.
1. Society
2. Customers
3. Employees
4. Vendors
5. Shareholders
“Stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient” -
Warren Buffett
Speaker #4 Radhika Gupta (Edelweiss AMC)
I had the privelege of going to the best finance school in the world (Wharton) and wall
street. But i’ve learnt that good investing is not about knowledge of finance - if that were
the case, Lehmann wouldn’t have collapsed.
Its about psychology and learnings from many businesses. Today, i’ve picked one
business - Show business.
What can The Box Office teach us about Bulls and Bears?
“There is no business like show business” is a famous quote.
“Remember. No show. No business” - its been a volatile year - if there is no risk, there is
no return. So take risks on returns and please stay invested.
Speaker 5 #Kenneth Andrade (Founder % CIO, Old Bridge
Capital)
1. We don’t like to buy a business which has a high ROE
2. Look for businesses at the bottom of the cycle in a consolidating industry
In 2006-2007, ROE peaked out at 20%+ and the corporate India struggled from
2010-2013, when it again bottomed out. The best opportunities come in the maximum
pessimism in the cycle. Interesting part of the market is that we are nowhere close to the
top. In 2006, when India was all about power, infra - we moved to consumer goods in
IDFC.
New entrants attracted by prospect of higher returns —> Rising competitions causes
falling ROEs —> Business investment declines, industry consolidates —> Improving
supply side causes returns to rise above cost of capital (increasing ROEs) —> New
entrants attracted by prospect of higher returns
Is a low ROE always negative? What happens if there is only one profit making company
in the segment? (aka sugar)
Supply is predictable
● Capacity utilisation
● Balance Sheet growth
● Consolidation
● Few participants making any profit
● Largest company ends up with ROCE < Cost of debt
● The bottom half of the industry remains completely leveraged
● Absence of funding for any business
● Forced discipline by participants
● No incremental supply in the cycle
● High valuations
● High ROE
● Great macros
● Fragmentation of the sector
● All companies remain profitable in the sector
● Easy access to capital
Panel Discussion
Panel Members:
Roshi: Stay with the tried and tested. In terms of philosophy, the basic thing is to keep it
simple. Set you investment objectives - it is an art, not science. The others - buy
businesses which we understand. Every bull market, there are dozens of concepts. I think
the rule for me is to buy businesses which we understand. Keep your eyes on the
medium and long term. In general, 3-5 years is a medium term time frame so that you can
see the thesis play out. Stock market prices fluctuate daily but real things don’t change
so fast right - there are customers, employees, etc involved. I also see a clear evolution in
the way investors think about it - there is much more understanding and appreciation of
the fact that equities are a medium to long term class.
Kalpen: One line that I use is evidence based investing - I started in 1999, we were
mobilising huge assets in the fund industry towards tech stocks and we saw our capital
getting destroyed to 20%. I learnt not to get carried away by stories and narratives and
focus on data. Pre 2008, philosophy was to choose the best of the last months or years
and post 2009, I added a minus sign to what I have learnt. In DSP, I don’t buy stocks and
we have recently taken a pledge to invest only in mutual funds. My framework for
investing in mutual funds is to look for a good fund that is massively underperforming.
Kalpen: I’ve worked with top fund managers, who to start with authenticity. They are not
always super bullish. They talk with data, they will tell you things are not looking clear.
Some guys are contrary to each other, some are complimenting each other. So what I
look for - is the fund manager able to walk with what he says? Can he put his idea on
paper? Fund managers who have a clear style but are not too stubborn, have a lot of
humility, etc. I like fund managers who have strong anchors and frameworks and who
respect that things will revert. A lot of money is sometimes mobilised by selling stories,
but usually such stories don’t make money. Someone said "If you stop reading
newspapers, your returns will go up”.
Shyam: Today a lot of people coming into investing from diverse background - how do
you see learning converge? Is it going to be multidisciplinary or do you think investing
should just be for finance professionals?
Roshi: There are 2 aspects to any profession. Hard skills and soft skills. Anybody who is
new to investing can easily read a balance sheet or understand what a DCF is - this is
hard skill. Investing isn’t just about the past - it is about soft skills. The bigger part is to
sort of understanding how the future will unfold. Its about the coo relationship different
parts of the ecosystem.
Kalpen: Fund managers in my team are constantly seeing how ideas and approaches are
changing. People still like to buy past performance but what they are actually buying is
future risk. If everyone learnt to be a good investor - equity will become like bank
deposits since the risk will go away.
Shyam: Over the past few years, competitive intensity between fund managers and PMS
managers has increased. How do you think this will play out?
Kalpen: Fundamentally, number of investment worthy companies are limited. But lot of
money coming into the market - FIIs, DIIs, funds, PMS, etc. Lot of money chasing few
stocks. This competitive intensity will still mean that most people earn benchmark minus
returns, and few people earn alpha.
Shyam: Roshi, how do you feel when someone asks you why are you not owning this
momentum stock?
Roshi: Questions get asked, especially in times like these when you have so many
entrants in the market. But I think it is okay to look stupid sometimes - yes, maybe we
didn’t understand a stock. But good thing is, we can go back to a previous cycle and tell
you that we were right to not chase momentum.
Shyam: My next question is against the premise of having an AMC itself - active v/s
passive investing. What is happening in the US and extending to the world - people can
invest in the index and thats it. Even Buffett says we don’t need active managers.
Roshi: It is not just about active vs passive - how will an active investor beat the
benchmark? He/she has to be different. So as long as you are trying to hug the
benchmark and beat the market, you will not do well. A lot of liquidity driving asset prices
and shorter time horizons has led to fund managers reducing the risk. For active to
perform, the momentum based theme has to turn.
Shyam: What do you think of this, Kalpen?
Kalpen: It is time, we fund managers don’t think of alpha as granted. My sense is there
will be few managers with alpha and many with benchmark beta returns. I think
customers will also start choosing the managers and a lot of self-selection will happen.
Most investors of DSP Small Cap Fund entered at the peak and hence they will not get
much alpha. So we will tell them to take of their own portfolio alpha as well.
Shyam: Next point - are fund managers becoming sales managers in AMCs?
Roshi: If you are using the salesman term in a positive way to mean communicating the
investing style then yes I agree. Due to social media, etc - there is a higher level of
interaction between mangers and intermediaries.
Concluding remarks by Shyam Sekhar
1. Jobs
2. Logistics
3. T&T
4. SpeChem
5. Domestic Services
6. Water
7. FinPro
8. FMIG
9. Commodites
2. Valuations may stay higher, longer than we expect - if they get a clear mandate