POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 29TH MARCH 2019, 6 AM CST

UltraPoll -
Manitoba Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
Leader’s Favourability Ratings
29th March 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between March 21st to 24th,
2019 among a sample of 810 adults, 18 years of
age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.44%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NDP MAKE GAINS IN MANITOBA BUT PCs STILL LEAD

29 March 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives led by Brian

Pallister hold steady with their lead in popular support while the NDP have
made some gains since January.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a

conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 810 Manitobans
between March 21st to 24th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.44%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The NDP have built on their support and have narrowed the gap between
themselves and the PCs,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “That said, support the Pallister PCs remains unchanged from
January.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 44.8% (+0.2% from
January), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 32.1% support
(+4.1%). The Liberals with Dougald Lamont at the helm currently enjoy
13.1% (-3.9%), and the Greens with James Beddome as leader have 6.7%
(+2.1%).

The poll also asked Manitobans about their impressions of the party leaders.
Continuining a trend that dates back to November of last year, no party
leader enjoys a positive favourability rating.

That said, there have been some significant changes. Pallister’s net rating
has improved to -15.1% (+2.4 %), while Kinew is now the best performing
leader with a rating of -2.1% (+5.2%).

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
oters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would
you vote for?

14%

1%
1.8%

5.7% 40%

All Voters
11%

ded and Leaning Voters

26.5%
ll Voters
1.3%
2%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
6.7%
17.9%

13.1%

35.1%
1.5%
2.5% 44.8%

5.1% Decided and Leaning Voters

All Voters

14.3%

32.1%

23.6%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party Undecided
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Manitoba Party Another Party
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
an Pallister Wab Kinew

19.1%

29.7% 28.2% 28.9%

6.4%

Brian Pallister Wab Kinew

11.8%

Dougald 44.8%
Lamont 31%

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
14%

43.3%

20.7%
Dougald Lamont

es Beddome Steven Fletcher 22%

Brian Pallister
7% 9.9%
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure

21.6%
17.6% 26%

39.7%
43.9%

James Beddome Steven Fletcher

6.4% 33.8%
Brian Pallister

31.5%

16.7%
45.9%

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 40% 50.9% 29.4% 30.8% 44.7% 45.6% 40.4% 54.8% 31%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 26.5% 21.4% 31.4% 32% 20.9% 28.8% 22.2% 20.1% 30.4%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 11% 10.3% 11.6% 10.3% 11.3% 10.6% 12.2% 5.6% 14.3%
Greens led by James Bedomme 5.7% 3.1% 8.2% 8.7% 5.3% 2.3% 6.4% 4.2% 6.6%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 1.8% 2.1% 1.5% 3.3% 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.4%
Another Party 1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% - 0.6% 1.4%
Undecided 14% 10.9% 17% 13.3% 16.4% 10.4% 16.8% 12.4% 15%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 41.4% 52.6% 30.6% 33.2% 45.2% 47.5% 41% 56.7% 32.1%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 29.1% 24.4% 33.8% 33.5% 24.9% 30.1% 26.8% 22.3% 33.3%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 11.9% 10.7% 13% 10.9% 12.5% 10.6% 14.2% 7% 14.8%
Greens led by James Bedomme 6% 3.1% 8.8% 8.7% 5.3% 2.3% 7.8% 4.5% 6.9%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 1.9% 2.3% 1.5% 3.7% 0.3% 1.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.6%
Another Party 1.2% 1.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% - 0.6% 1.5%
Undecided 8.5% 5.5% 11.4% 8.5% 10.3% 7.2% 8.1% 6.6% 9.7%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 44.8% 55.5% 34.4% 35.6% 49.8% 50.7% 44.2% 60.5% 35.2%
NDP led by Wab Kinew 32.1% 25.9% 38.2% 36.9% 28% 32.8% 29.3% 24.1% 37%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 13.1% 11.4% 14.8% 12% 14% 11.5% 15.7% 7.5% 16.5%
Greens led by James Bedomme 6.7% 3.3% 10% 9.7% 6.1% 2.5% 8.5% 4.9% 7.8%
Manitoba Party, led by Steven Fletcher 2% 2.4% 1.6% 4.1% 0.4% 1.2% 2.2% 2.5% 1.7%
Another Party 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.3% - 0.6% 1.7%
Unweighted Frequency 747 445 302 202 191 204 150 348 399
Weighted Frequency 747 368 379 221 189 193 144 282 465
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 29.7% 36.7% 22.9% 23% 31.1% 34.1% 32.3% 39.5% 23.8%
Unfavourable 44.8% 39.5% 49.9% 47.5% 43.8% 44.7% 42.1% 33.1% 51.9%
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 6.4% 5.7% 7% 8.1% 7.3% 3.9% 5.8% 8.1% 5.3%
Not sure 19.1% 18% 20.1% 21.4% 17.8% 17.3% 19.8% 19.3% 19%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 28.9% 24.5% 33.2% 36.8% 23.5% 29.7% 22.9% 19.7% 34.5%
Unfavourable 31% 39.6% 22.6% 25.3% 35.6% 35% 28.5% 33.6% 29.4%
Not familiar with Wab Kinew 11.8% 10.1% 13.5% 9.9% 14.4% 9.6% 14.3% 16% 9.3%
Not sure 28.2% 25.7% 30.7% 28% 26.6% 25.7% 34.3% 30.7% 26.8%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dougald Lamont?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 14% 12.1% 15.8% 15.8% 13.5% 12.6% 13.7% 7.4% 18%
Unfavourable 20.7% 26.9% 14.6% 18.2% 17.9% 29.4% 16.4% 26.3% 17.3%
Not familiar with Dougald Lamont 22% 21.3% 22.7% 23.8% 25% 16.6% 22.6% 26.1% 19.6%
Not sure 43.3% 39.7% 46.9% 42.3% 43.6% 41.4% 47.3% 40.3% 45.2%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 7% 7.1% 6.9% 10% 6.4% 4.9% 5.8% 5% 8.2%
Unfavourable 17.6% 25.3% 10.2% 17.8% 16.5% 21.9% 13.1% 20.9% 15.6%
Not familiar with James Beddome 31.5% 30.5% 32.5% 29.6% 35.9% 25.5% 36.9% 342% 29.9%
Not sure 43.9% 37.1% 50.5% 42.5% 41.3% 47.6% 44.2% 39.9% 46.3%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Steven Fletcher?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg
Favourable 9.9% 11% 8.8% 14.5% 6.8% 11.2% 5% 8.3% 10.8%
Unfavourable 33.8% 34.6% 33.1% 24.7% 32.8% 37.9% 43.6% 30.6% 35.7%
Not familiar with Steven Fletcher 16.7% 17.4% 15.9% 20.7% 15.9% 12.6% 16.8% 20.4% 14.4%
Not sure 39.7% 37% 42.3% 40% 44.4% 38.3% 34.6% 40.6% 39.1%
Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439
Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Favourable opinion
which party would you vote for? Unfavourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Not sure
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not familiar with Wab Kinew
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by
Wab Kinew Do you have a favourable or
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald unfavourable opinion of Dougald
Lamont Lamont?
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Favourable opinion
Bedomme Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with Dougald Lamont

And which party are you leaning Do you have a favourable or

towards? (only asked of respondents unfavourable opinion of James
who were undecided in previous Bedommel?
question) Favourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Unfavourable opinion
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not sure
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by Not familiar with James Bedomme
Wab Kinew
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald Do you have a favourable or
Lamont unfavourable opinion of Steven
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Fletcher?
Bedomme Favourable opinion
Another Party Unfavourable opinion
Undecided Not sure
Not familiar with Steven Fletcher
(the order of the following five
questions were randomized) What is your gender?
Do you have a favourable or Male
unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? Female
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion What is your age group?
Not sure 18 to 34 years of age
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between March 21st to
24th, 2019 among a sample of 810 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey
was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Manitoba.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.44% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.52%, Females: +/-
5.31%, 18-34 age group: +/- 6.59%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.76%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.64%, 65+ age group: +/- 7.72%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.68%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 5.09%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.