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Proceedings of the Institution of

Civil Engineers
Transport 157
February 2004 Issue TR1
Pages 27–41

Paper 13317
Received 21/03/2003
Accepted 13/11/2003
Keywords: Malcolm Buchanan
traffic engineering/transport Managing Director, Colin
planning/urban regeneration Buchanan and Partners;
Chairman, Transport Research
Institute, Napier University

More or less traffic in towns?*


M. Buchanan

This paper reviews some of the key assumptions and It saw these as being between the extent to which it would be
analyses of Traffic in Towns (1963), and finds significant possible to adapt and reconstruct towns to cater for more
new dimensions to the problems. In particular, towns traffic, the corresponding need to restrict car use, and the
have changed substantially as a result of the motor urban environment that would result. It recognised that
vehicle, opposition has undermined road programmes, restrictions on car use would need to be accompanied by ‘good,
and threatening new dimensions have been added to the cheap public transport’, and it emphasised the need for
1963 diagnosis of environmental issues. Though there integrated land use and transport planning. It saw the choices
have been numerous localised environmental as political and as likely to vary between different types of
improvements, there has also been a steady erosion of urban area, but it was nevertheless clear that the authors
environmental standards on many roads and streets. expected a better urban environment to be high on the political
Restraints on the use of cars have been increasingly agenda.
applied, and road pricing is now available to local
authorities. Road user pricing will not, however, solve all In this paper I first look back at the towns and the traffic
the problems. Moreover, willingness to apply restraints problems diagnosed in 1963 and consider how both have
on private vehicle use is likely to be limited to travel changed. I then review the choices put so persuasively in
markets for which public transport can provide a Traffic in Towns, consider what choices we have actually made
reasonable alternative to the car. Trains, buses and in 40 years, and finally discuss the choices we face today.
trams can deliver such alternatives only for long-distance
travel and for trips to town centres and other major trip 2. WHAT HAS BECOME OF THE TOWNS?
attractors. They could do this much better than is the
case today, and therefore further traffic reductions are 2.1. The debate with the economists
possible. However, for the bulk of the traffic on the UK’s It will be recalled that, in the aftermath of the publication of
roads, origins and destinations are dispersed, and Traffic in Towns, it was the economists who were the only real
therefore public transport and rail freight are not good critics, arguing that the capital costs of reconstructing towns to
alternatives to the motor vehicle. New forms of accommodate even the more modest of the traffic growth
transport, capable of outperforming the fast vehicle on scenarios would be far beyond the resources of the Treasury.
the fast road, are therefore needed, and two of Some went further and argued that towns would of their own
particular interest are at advanced stages of accord adapt to the car by spreading out to form a new
development. The major choice to be faced today is suburbia, which would be intrinsically easier to serve with the
concerned with the dispersed (intra-suburban) travel car, without the need for all the reconstruction and painful
markets. It lies between, on the one hand, improving the choices foreseen for existing urban areas by the Traffic in
road network to cater for the demands for which public Towns team. Yet others argued that road user charging would
transport as we know it is not a realistic alternative and, relate the demand for vehicular travel to the supply of road
on the other hand, developing new forms of public and space and generate the funds necessary to provide more roads
freight transport. and parking.

1. INTRODUCTION Buchanan had already to some extent answered these critics in


1
The Traffic in Towns report, written by a team in the Ministry the report by arguing that the amount of money being invested
of Transport, led by Colin Buchanan, and published by HMSO in roads and public transport was woefully inadequate and
in 1963, was the first to look comprehensively at the problems bore no relation to what society was apparently prepared to
being created in different types of urban area by the increasing invest in the purchase and use of cars. He correctly anticipated
use of motor vehicles. It exposed very clearly the policy that road pricing would be at least 20 years in coming.
choices that would arise as vehicle ownership continued to rise.
If it achieves little else, and there is worrying evidence to
2
*Paper based on a presentation to the Conference ‘Traffic in Tomorrow’s Towns’ suggest this will be the case, the 1998 Transport White Paper,
at Imperial College, London, 20 November 2002. by getting road user charging and workplace parking levies

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 27


onto the statute book, has opened the way for a much more cars, with the average mileage per person per day rising from
realistic link to be established between what society is ready to less than half a mile in 1952 to about 18 miles in 2002. This
spend on the use of cars and what the public authorities need trend has been mostly at the expense of buses, the use of which
to invest in transport. There is one proviso about this new has declined from over 4.83 km per person per day to half that
opportunity: this is that the public authorities must be obliged figure, and cycling, which has declined from 1.2 km to about
to invest such monies where it will be most effective to do so. 0.32 km per day. Travel by rail, despite the cuts of Dr Beeching,
has stayed fairly constant at just over 1 mile per person per
The economists were clearly right in their second challenge. day, an indication that the good doctor’s diagnosis (that poorly
Towns have spread and adapted as a result of the car, a good used branch lines could be axed without too much loss of
example being Luton (Fig. 1). However, in this process they business) was surprisingly accurate.
have generally failed to solve their traffic problems in the way
the economists anticipated. Indeed there is now a commonly Shown on a logarithmic scale (Fig. 3), it is very clear that the
held view that the spread of urbanisation has increased car extent to which we travel has been driven up by the
dependence and worsened traffic problems to the extent that availability of cars. The most significant new modes and the
recent government advice has advocated closing this particular ones to watch are air travel and taxis/minicabs. Fig. 4 further
stable door by a return to the centralisation of activities around illustrates the close links between the proportion of travel
town centres at higher densities. undertaken by car and the rise in car ownership. It also
suggests that the change in mode share may be levelling off,
3. GROWTH OF TRAFFIC (AND CAPACITY?) even if the change in the amount of travel is not.
Figure 2 illustrates the trends in the amount of travel
undertaken per person per day by mode. The figure shows that Figure 5 shows a similar impact of the motor vehicle on the
the overall trend is dominated by the increase in the use of transport of freight. From a position where it handled more
than half the tonne-kilometres of freight, rail has declined to a
current level of just over 10%.

HOUGHTON
REGIS
Figure 6 suggests that a part of the reason why such a switch to
the use of roads has been possible is the steady and continuing
success of traffic engineers in squeezing more traffic along
DUNSTABLE
LUTON
motorways and roads. Notions of the amount of traffic that a
road can carry have been progressively revised upwards, in the
case of motorways from 1500 passenger car units/hour (pcu/h)
1920 per lane in the 1960s to 2000 today. Already, in the United
States, continuous flows of 2800 pcu/h per lane are being
observed, and with closer headways becoming more widespread
HOUGHTON
REGIS and intelligent cruise control becoming available, it is not
impossible that lane capacities will eventually be revised
DUNSTABLE upwards towards 3000 pcu/h per lane.
LUTON
But squeezing more traffic along existing roads is unlikely to
provide much more capacity compared with what can be
1946 achieved by using alternative modes of transport. Fig. 7
illustrates the increases in passengers per hour that can be
HOUGHTON
REGIS
achieved by devoting road lanes to the exclusive use of
minibuses, cycles, rigid buses or articulated buses. Under these
circumstances the passenger throughput of a lane or road can
DUNSTABLE
be increased to more than 25 000 passengers per lane per hour.
LUTON Beyond this, heavy rail metro systems can and do achieve
volumes of 80 000 passenger per track per hour.
1963
4. NEW ENVIRONMENTAL IMPERATIVES
HOUGHTON
REGIS 4.1. The Traffic in Towns view of the environmental
issues
Colin Buchanan was not a boastful man, rather the contrary,
DUNSTABLE but he used occasionally to say that the word ‘environment’
was not in common planning parlance until the publication of
LUTON
Traffic in Towns with its concepts of environmental areas and
environmental capacities. The effects of traffic on the
1994
environment were systematically spelt out in Traffic in Towns
under the headings of noise, pollution, visual intrusion and
Fig. 1. Growth of development in Luton/Dunstable severance. The arguments were compelling. Not only were the
environmental impacts of the use and parking of cars in cities

28 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


3·5 20·0

18·0
Miles per person per day (excl. cars, vans and taxis)
3·0

Miles per person per day (cars, vans and taxis)


16·0

2·5 14·0

12·0 Buses and coaches


2·0 Motorcycles

10·0 Pedal cycles


Surface rail
1·5 Air
8·0
Cars, vans and taxis

1·0 6·0

4·0
0·5
2·0

0 0
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

Beeching Privatisation All franchises awarded

Fig. 2. Transport trends in the UK, mobility by means of mode of transport: distance travelled per day per capita (distance for cars,
vans and taxis plotted against right-hand scale) (1 mile = 1.609 km)

100

10
Miles per day per capita (logarithmic scale)

1 Buses and coaches


Cars, vans and taxis
Motorcycles
Pedal cycles
Surface rail
0·1
All modes
Air

0·01
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

Fig. 3. Transport trends in the UK, mobility by mode of transport: distance travelled per day per capita (1 mile = 1.609 km)

already totally unacceptable, but attempting to accommodate of the Shanghai Memorandum of the International Committee
3
the expected growth by more roads and parking would in on Climate Change (2001), can be in any doubt as to the scale
many towns also prove to have prohibitive environmental of the climate change that is now upon us, nor of its potential
costs, even if the financial costs of so doing could be afforded. consequences.

4.2. Global warming The Shanghai Memorandum assembles far more scientific data
What Buchanan did not foresee was that, within 40 years, a than has hitherto been available and confirms the clear
new, quite different and far more sinister set of environmental advance of global warming.
impacts would arise, a significant part of the blame for which
would be attributed to the motor vehicle. No one who has read (a) The 1990s were the warmest decade since 1861.
the scientific facts, unemotively and dryly set out in the pages (b) 1998 was the warmest year since 1861.

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 29


Share of distance travelled (% miles per person per day) Rail 30000
Car ownership Bus/coaches
25000
Private motorised

100 80 20000
90

% Households owning 1 ⫹ cars


70 15000 Passenger/
80
60 hours
70 10000

60 50
5000
50 40
0
40 30 Car Minibus Cycle Rigid bus Artic bus
30
20
20
Fig. 7. Passenger capacity of a 3 m road lane
10 10

0 0
52

57

62

67

72

77

82

87

92

97
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19 (e) The average sea level rise in the twentieth century was
0.1–0.2 m.
Fig. 4. Transport trends: share of distance travelled by bus, ( f ) Rainfall is increasing by 0.5–1% per decade in the
rail and cars compared with the trend in car ownership levels northern hemisphere.
(1 mile = 1.609 km)
(g) There has been less change in the Antarctic.

The Shanghai draft, contrary to the hopes of President Bush,


Road confirms human activity as the most significant cause of this
Rail global warming.
100
90
80 (a) CO2 has increased by 31% since 1750.
70 (b) The present concentration has probably not been exceeded
Percentage

60 for 20 million years.


50
(c) The current rate of increase of CO2 concentration is
40
30 unprecedented for 20 000 years.
20 (d ) Three quarters of the CO2 increase is due to fossil fuel
10 burning.
0 (e) The remainder is due to land use change and deforestation.
61

65

69

73

77

81

85

89

93

97
53

57
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

( f ) Similar rates of change are to be seen in the concentrations


19

19

Beginning of decline in bulk carrying of other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and NO2 .
of coal and iron
Competition from road transport beginning
to bite into rail profits The next conclusion of the Shanghai draft is that the
forecasting models used by climatologists are getting better.
Fig. 5. Transport trends: share of freight hauled (km-tonnes) Their new understanding of the mechanisms at work in climate
between rail and road change suggest that.

(a) CO2 from fossil fuels will dominate trends for the rest of
the century.
Design flow per lane: pcu/h

3500 (b) The share of CO2 concentration that can be cancelled out
3000 by forests and oceans will decline.
2500 (c) By the end of this century CO2 concentrations will be
2000 4-lane
between 540 and 970 parts per million (ppm), figures that
1500 6-lane
would be reduced by only 40–70 ppm even if the whole
1000
500 world were reforested.
0 (d ) Reductions in emissions are necessary to stabilise the rate
1966 1985–99 1999 2010 at which global warming is occurring (radiative forcing).
Year
(e) The temperature rise between 1990 and 2100 will be 1.4–
1.88C.
Fig. 6. Changing estimates of road capacity: UK motorway
( f ) Sea level rise over the same period will be 0.09–0.88 m.
(speed ¼ 50 mph)
(g) These changes will occur and persist even if greenhouse
gas concentrations are stabilised.
(c) Temperatures are rising in the lowest 8 km of the
atmosphere. As if these dire warnings were not enough, the Shanghai draft
(d ) The snow and ice cover has decreased in the northern contains interesting calculations as to the impacts of melting
hemisphere. ice sheets.

30 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


(a) The melting of the Greenland ice sheet would lead to a sea
level rise of 7 m.
(b) The melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a
rise of 3 m.

4.3. The contribution of transport to global


environmental problems
Global problems clearly demand global policies, and from Rio
to Kyoto to the Hague there has been commendable
determination first by the Tories and now by New Labour to
get in place a set of international policies that will at least
stabilise the rate of warming. This rate clearly needs to be
stabilised at as low a level as possible.

There is also an important political dimension to the problem. Fig. 8. VW Lupo


Poorer, developing countries just beginning to savour the
prosperity that burning fossil fuels can bring are unlikely to be
persuaded that they should rein in their demand by
exhortations from wealthier countries whose per capita
consumption is already far greater. Each of the wealthier
countries has therefore to be seen to be setting its own house
in order.

4.4. Contribution of traffic


Within the UK the contribution of transport to total global
warming emissions has been estimated to be (figures courtesy
of Dr Phil Bly)

(a) CO2 26%


(b) CO 91%
(c) NO2 61%
(d ) volatile organic compounds 42%
(e) particulates 59%
(f) proportion of all energy use 33%.

It may therefore be concluded that transport is a significant


cause of global warming. Yet despite the dire warnings many
politicians and transport planners still delude themselves that Fig. 9. VW four-wheel drive
global warming is something that can be eliminated or at least
brought under control in 10–20 years. The fact that we have
already switched on what I calculate to be the equivalent of a clearly a simple, if politically delicate, solution to this problem,
net of heaters around the planet at a density of 1 kW every one that does not need the paraphernalia of road user charging
10 m2 , that we cannot switch these off, and that we are and which could also send the right long-term messages to the
annually adding further heaters still seems to elude people. freight industry. It is to raise the duty on fuel.

4.5. Greater fuel efficiency 5. THE CHOICES SEEN IN TRAFFIC IN TOWNS


Potentially offsetting some of these adverse effects is the
achievement of greater fuel efficiency. Largely as a result of 5.1. All things to all men?
European legislation, the car has become steadily cleaner over On the occasion of the twentieth anniversary of the publication
the last two decades, and these developments seem set to of Traffic in Towns, I was asked to talk on the subject to the
continue. The 3 litre VW Golf Lupo (Fig. 8) is already common Chester Civic Society. I made the point to them, though never
in Germany, the ‘3’ referring not to the size of the engine, but to my father, that to some extent the enduring popularity of
to the number of litres of diesel required to drive 100 km Traffic in Towns was due to the fact that it meant all things to
(equivalent to nearly 100 mpg). And last year the head of all men. Highway engineers saw it as heralding a new era of
Volkswagen, Herr Piëch, drove the first 1 litre VW from road building, environmentalists saw it as bringing to an end
Hanover to Hamburg, at about 300 mpg. Huge savings in fuel the dominance of cities by traffic, and public transport
consumption and hence in the emission of greenhouse gases advocates saw it as requiring new and better bus and rail
are therefore possible. The problem in the UK seems to be to services.
persuade motorists to buy the fuel-efficient cars. Instead they
have been switching to larger cars and four-wheel drives Buchanan saw it as implying political choices, and he generally
(Fig. 9) at a rate that has cancelled out all the reductions in cited these as being between the degree of restriction that
greenhouse gas emissions achieved by cleaner engines. There is would need to be applied to car use, the scale and cost of the

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 31


investment in roads and parking that would alternatively be 6. THE CHOICES TODAY
necessary to give increased car accessibility, and the quality of
the resulting urban environment, including the impacts of the 6.1. Changing nature of the problems
new roads themselves. He was well aware that the choices Today, although the logic of the choices posed by Traffic in
regarding vehicle accessibility implied further choices about Towns remains persuasive, the reality has moved on, at least
public transport alternatives to the car. partly in the way foreseen by the economists. Large sectors of
town-centre economies have decamped to locations where they
have been able to create the environments they crave, with the
5.2. Buchanan’s view of the choices car accessibility their customers and/or staff want. Retail
Regarding his three major choices, it is clear that Buchanan activities in Sheffield have, for example, largely moved to
believed that far more investment was required in transport as Meadowhall some 5 km east of the city centre, by the M1;
a whole and in roads in particular. From his visits, made before much of the banking and financial services sector of Edinburgh
the war, to see the new German autobahns, and from his has similarly forsaken the historic centre for the new
enduring admiration for their design, it is also clear that he Edinburgh Park development on the city’s ring road. Similarly,
believed that new roads could, at a cost, be designed to fit countless other retailers and businesses have also moved out to
harmoniously into both townscape and landscape. Towards the shopping centres, retail and business parks. Hospitals, schools,
end of his life, however, looking out from his window on Boars and warehousing have sought economies of scale by similarly
Hill, he would indicate that he could both see and hear the concentrating into larger units in out-of-town or edge-of-town
heavy traffic on the distant A34 trunk road, though I was never locations and preferably close to motorway interchanges.
sure whether this caused him irritation or interesting Housing has also spread out at lower densities in estates, laid
reflections. It is also of interest that in his last book, I Told You out to accommodate the car, but all too often impenetrable to
4
So, he still insists that in some circumstances roads could public transport. Whole new cities, such as Milton Keynes,
positively enhance the landscape, but repeatedly adds the have been designed around the car, but with apparently little
qualification ‘except for the traffic’. thought for the effect this would have on other modes,
particularly cycling and buses.
On the other hand it is also clear that Buchanan did not believe
that people would tolerate too many restrictions on their Some of the problems that Buchanan foresaw so clearly have
accessibility by car unless good public transport alternatives thus become even more intractable and widespread. Today it is
were in place and that these would find it hard to match the additionally almost impossible to discuss the problems of
speed and convenience of the car. He was, however, more than dealing with traffic in towns without at the same time
ready to contemplate restrictions on access; indeed he regarded considering the traffic between them and their new and greatly
such restrictions as inevitable in many towns, emphasising the expanded, semi-urban hinterlands. And even beyond the urban
importance of parking controls and backing the longer-term fringes, where Traffic in Towns confidently concluded that
possibility of road pricing. ‘enough is known. . .’, the problems of overloaded motorways
can be traced to the dispersal of homes and activities made
But it was probably on the environmental issues that Buchanan both possible and economic by the fast motor vehicle on the
himself was least ready to compromise: too much had already fast road.
been sacrificed to the motor vehicle. Thus in many of CBP’s
early studies, notably in historic cities such as Bath, where the 6.2. More complex choices
environmental issues were not open to negotiation, he and his As the nature of the problems has changed, so the choices
teams soon found themselves confronted by much simpler and Colin posed have become less and less simple. New roads,
starker choices: provide more roads and parking, or restrict car because they enable people to travel further and thus ‘generate’
access and find a public transport alternative. Moreover the more traffic, have been painted as part of the problem rather
roads and parking had to be environmentally acceptable: the than as a solution.
new road to be in tunnel in Bath and the additional parking in
Oxford to be skilfully designed to blend in with its historic Further choices, not discussed in Traffic in Towns, have also
setting. emerged. One of these is that between the needs of public
transport and those of general traffic. Bus lanes and trams
Aware that these choices would often be difficult, Buchanan operating on-street inevitably reduce the capacity available for
put great faith in the power of the study and the Inquiry to other road users and often encounter fierce opposition from
clarify the issues. Like everyone else at the time (and some of frontagers. It has thus become difficult to provide the ‘good,
us today) he placed reliance on the then new transportation cheap public transport’ that the Traffic in Towns team
models and on the systematic analysis of environmental cheerfully assumed would come to the rescue when car access
impacts. He was clearly less comfortable when it came to had to be restricted. And if providing good public transport
applying cost–benefit analysis to the models’ forecasts, was difficult in towns as they were in 1963, it is far more so
particularly if the conclusions went against his assessment of today, when they have dispersed on such a huge scale and to
the environmental issues. On these matters he always made up urban structures laid out neither for full use of the car nor for
his own mind, usually after long periods looking at things on service by public transport.
the ground—a habit probably acquired before the war during
his early days with the Ministry of Transport in Exeter as one The debate over public transport alternatives to the car has also
of a group of engineers responsible for roads and accident exposed several ‘vicious circles’ of decline under which, on the
investigations in the Southwest. one hand, more road construction and, on the other hand,

32 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


worse congestion mean fewer public transport users, and hence widespread pedestrianisation with park and ride for those
higher fares or reduced services for those remaining, and thus wishing to access the city centre, but obliged to rely on
further loss of passengers. And this in turn has raised issues of their cars at the home end of the journey.
social deprivation.
6.4. The choices today
Comprehensive redevelopment, the opportunities for which A common feature of most of these exceptions is that they
were already, in 1963, seen to be slipping away, rapidly came achieved acceptability for some restrictions on car use by
to be vilified. This was partly on account of its disregard for providing at least some form of public transport alternative, no
the conservation and rehabilitation of older housing and partly matter how rudimentary. A second common feature is that they
because most of the results rapidly seemed themselves to look relate mostly to city centres, among the few destinations for
outdated. Although today the work of development which public transport in the various forms in which we know
corporations and urban regeneration project teams has shown it is able to provide a reasonable, even if usually slower and
that a comprehensive approach can bear fruit, the opportunities often higher priced, alternative to the car. If we draw the
for comprehensive redevelopment, on the scale anticipated in conclusion from this that the only travel demands for which
Traffic in Towns, have gone, taking with them much of the politicians will be willing to impose charges or restrictions on
potential to accommodate new roads in an environmentally the use of private transport are those for which some
acceptable way. reasonable alternative form of transport can be provided, then
four simple questions emerge.
Finally, in many streets, environmental standards have been
sacrificed to traffic and parking. What Buchanan regarded as (a) For what types of passenger demand or in what travel
most sacrosanct, and a key objective and determinant of markets can conventional public transport compete
policy, has often proved, of his three choices, to be that on effectively with the car?
which society has been most ready to compromise. Politicians (b) What forms of public transport could serve the more
and society as a whole have not so much made these choices as dispersed travel demands that conventional systems (buses
simply drifted into them, propelled both by niggardly budgets and railways) cannot?
and by the difficulties of achieving any consensus as to what (c) Would it be feasible to provide such systems?
should be done next year, never mind in the next 20 years. (d ) Are there equivalent lessons to be drawn regarding the
distribution of freight?
Valiant efforts by some, including the present government, to
get people to accept that choices have to be made have fallen
The essential policy choices that then emerge are as follows.
largely on deaf ears, and rational discussion has often been
hindered by the technical half-truths on which some transport
(a) How can the policies already known to be effective in
policies have been constructed. I do not intend to deal with
reducing car use for travel to town centres be more widely
these here, but I include among them the view that because
applied, and what effects will this have on general traffic
new or widened roads ‘generate’ traffic it is better not to build
levels?
them. From this it is but a small step to the even more
(b) To what other major traffic attractors (hospitals, airports,
erroneous view that road improvements can worsen traffic
etc.) can similar policies be applied, how can this be more
congestion.
widely achieved, and to what extent will it reduce general
traffic?
6.3. Positive achievements
(c) If it is possible to conceive of new public transport systems
Important exceptions to the catalogue of indecision have
that would compete with the car, where conventional
included
systems cannot, how can such systems be introduced?
(d ) If such systems are not possible, what options exist other
(a) the widespread introduction and enforcement of parking
than expanding the road network?
controls (the parking anarchy of the 1960s is now hard to
remember)
(b) the dogged attempts to insulate bus services from the worst 7. OUTPERFORMING THE MOTOR VEHICLE WITH
effects of traffic congestion through bus priority measures PUBLIC TRANSPORT
(c) cities such as Oxford, where the combination of providing
alternatives to the car and discouraging its use has led to a 7.1. Defining the markets for travel
major switch from car to public transport for travel to the In addressing the questions raised in section 6 it is helpful to
city centre consider travel demand in terms of four ‘travel markets’ for
(d ) other cities—some historic, others less so—which like personal and freight movement:
Norwich, Stafford and Nottingham have significantly rolled
back the frontiers of the car by substantial city-centre (a) long-distance and inter-city travel
pedestrianisation schemes, often linked to edge-of-town (b) trips to and from city or town centres
type malls built adjacent to the central area (c) trips to and from other major trip attractors (from airports
(e) cities such as Manchester, which in an imaginative way to schools and hospitals)
have put to far better use (by the Metrolink in Manchester’s (d ) trips between dispersed origins and destinations in and
case) the extensive network of inherited and underused between suburban and rural areas.
railway lines
( f ) cities such as Chester and York, which have combined Obviously each of these travel markets could be further

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 33


subdivided, for example by journey purpose, by time of day/ on buses. The keys to this success are investing in good
week, or by the size of the party travelling. conventional public transport, giving it the necessary priority,
and applying some disincentives to car use (e.g. strict control
The significance of the travel markets in terms of the total of on-street parking space, a significant price for all parking,
amount of traffic (vehicle-km) that each causes varies and some access restrictions). The achieved shares by public
according to the size of the urban area. In the extreme case of transport in the city-centre travel markets speak for themselves
Greater London car travel to/from the large central area (85% to central London and 42% to Oxford city centre with a
5
accounts for only about 12% of total car-km. This is partly further 16% on bikes).
because 85% of trips to the central area are already made by
public transport and partly because there are far more person- The adoption of such an approach is more acceptable if the
km and a far higher percentage by car in London’s suburban public transport alternative is available for all the potential
and cross-boundary travel markets. users from the suburbs and beyond (the latter contributing half
the city-centre car trips in the case of Oxford). In London this
7.2. Competing with the car in the long-distance travel is achieved by long-distance rail commuter lines, medium-
markets distance Underground lines, and short-distance bus services.
In the long-distance, inter-city travel markets (more than Station car parks ensure that the public transport system is
300 km) both the plane and the train already comfortably beat available to those who have to start their journeys by car. In
the car and are in fact locked in competition with each other, Oxford the public transport alternative involves city bus
with everything from pendolinos to high-speed airport links services, operating at good frequencies, partly in their own bus
being thrown into the battle. The significance of these travel lanes, some good longer-distance bus services, and park and
markets and the current role of rail compared with the car may ride services for those who have no alternative but to start
be judged from Fig. 10. This shows that, although rail accounts their journeys by car, but who may find the car to be an
for nearly 30% of all the person-km caused by trips longer encumbrance or an expense in the city centre.
than 160 km, this travel market itself accounts for only 12% of
the traffic on the nation’s roads. Concentrating on this travel There is clearly a delicate balance to be struck between the
market, which it can serve efficiently and well, will therefore degree of restriction to be applied to the car and the frequency,
make commercial sense for the railways and help them to availability, speed and price of the public transport alternative
compete with the airlines, but will not greatly reduce the offered. A good public transport system means that tough
country’s traffic problems. Most of these are caused by shorter restrictions on car use will be acceptable and vice versa. Ken
trips. Livingstone has recognised that the quality of London’s public
transport services to and within the central area is already such
7.3. Competing with the car for travel to city and town that road user charging can be introduced as a further
centres disincentive to car use without much fear of a backlash and in
Section 6 argued that a number of the UK’s city centres have the knowledge that it will immediately speed up bus services
already demonstrated that it is possible for public transport to within the charged area, thus increasing their capacity, and
outperform the car in serving city centres. London is the raise funds for further public transport improvements.
extreme case where the central area cannot function without
the rail network that serves it. Others are similarly dependent 7.3. Competing with the car for travel to major
suburban trip attractors
These relatively straightforward ways of getting people to use
conventional public transport instead of cars (see Fig. 11) could
Rail passenger-miles
Car driver-miles be far more widely and better applied to many town centres.
1400
They could also be applied to other major trip attractors. Public
transport, in the forms in which we know it, is obviously
1200
capable in principle of serving any destination that is
approached by significant numbers of people along common
1000
corridors. This definition applies to a surprising number of trip
Person-miles (⫻ 000)

attractors, from schools and hospitals to airports and out-of-


800
town business parks or shopping centres. For all these
destinations good conventional public transport—bus, tram or
600
park and ride—ought to be able to provide services that, if there
were a little more pressure on the car (higher prices or access
400
restrictions), would provide a competitive alternative to it.
Driving a friend or relative to the airport used to be an
200
interesting excursion, but is now a chore. Driving kids to
school is a worse one. So if such alternatives existed there is a
0
prima facie case for expecting that they would be used.
1

0
25

50

00
0–

1–

2–

10

Moreover, if this is true then it must be traffic congestion or


5–

–1


10

25

50

Trip length category: miles the current legal and financial framework that is somehow
preventing such services from being provided.
Fig. 10. Why high-speed trains will do little to reduce traffic
If it is further true that such markets for conventional public

34 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


Fig. 11. Enough is known about controlling car use to town centres: (a) fast rail links to outer metropolitan areas; (b) tough parking
enforcement; (c) feeder services to metro stations; (d) bus priority; (e) adequate provision for cycling and mopeds; (f) integrated
ticketing

transport exist, and that operators are somehow restrained from parking spaces were occupied not by cars whose owners had
serving them, then it follows that there will be exceptions, and gone into Oxford, but by those whose owners, often dragging
that somewhere it will be possible to see such services already heavy suitcases, had risked their lives crossing a busy road,
in action and fulfilling the needs identified. And sure enough waited on a dreary lay-by with no shelter, and caught the bus
such services do exist. Take, for example, the Thornhill park in the opposite direction to Heathrow or central London (Fig.
and ride site, designed to intercept city-centre-bound traffic on 12). If such services can work despite the designs of planners,
the A40 as it approaches Oxford from the direction of London. how much better might they function with some proper
A recent survey showed that over a third of the Thornhill planning?

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 35


answers to this question relate to conflicting responsibilities
and commercial interests. At the Manchester Airport Second
Runway Inquiry, for example, the idea of remote terminals was
opposed by the Regional Office of the Department of Transport,
which clearly saw it as undermining its attempts to extract
money for motorway widening from the Airport Company. The
company in turn saw park and ride as needing investment and
abstracting revenue from its profitable parking operations,
already in competition with private car parks outside the
airport perimeter. These revenues were, with the abolition of
duty free, soon to become one of its two remaining sources of
revenue.

Fig. 12. Unplanned park and ride/kiss and ride (and fly) at Similar conflicts probably exist for public transport services
Thornhill, A40 that might be provided for schools, hospitals etc., and all are
overlaid by undue reliance on market forces and an
unwillingness or inability to impose obligations on major trip
6
The answer to this question can be found in a CBP report attractors to take such actions until they happen to need
prepared 15 years ago and designed to explore how public planning permission for a new classroom or runway. I was
transport’s share of the travel market to Manchester Airport interested to learn during a recent study of bus regulation in
could be increased significantly above the 8% then being Europe that in Austria an obligation is placed jointly on the
achieved by the conventional bus and rail services to the new schools and the bus operators to plan the school bus services at
airport station. This study showed that up to 10 miles from the the beginning of each academic year. In the UK this obligation
airport its passengers and staff accounted for about 20% of the is imposed only for children living a certain distance away, and
traffic on the motorway network. Twenty miles away sufficient only from state schools, when it is the private and
of this traffic could be intercepted by park and ride and kiss denominational schools that have both the larger catchment
and ride to justify a minibus service operating every 15 min areas and the wealthier parents, with higher car ownership
direct to the terminal entrances (rather than to long-stay car levels.
parks, where many would otherwise have had to drive to catch
a different bus) (Fig. 13). 7.4.1. Getting the land use and transport mix right. Major
suburban/semi-urban trip attractors would be very much easier
The question that then arises is why, if there is a market for to serve with conventional public transport if they could
them, such conventional services are seldom provided. The themselves be arranged in corridors along which buses, trams

BRADFORD FROM A1

BLACKPOOL
PRESTON LEEDS
70
M62

110 WAKEFIELD
BOLTON M62
HUDDERSFIELD

WIGAN
MANCHESTER

SHEFFIELD
LIVERPOOL A57

50
35
WARRINGTON
AIRPORT

A6
50 CHESTERFIELD
CHESTER M1
M6

STOKE-ON-TRENT
WREXHAM
Catchment area boundary
70 70 Satellite with average number of
airport passengers driving past
the site each half hour (CAA 1992)

Fig. 13. Potential for park and ride/kiss and ride to Manchester Airport

36 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


or rail could operate efficiently. CBP recently made such This could be done in Manchester, where the bus services are
proposals for the expansion of both Galway (the Ardaun terminated in edge-of-centre bus stations but the Metrolink
corridor, Fig. 14) and Limerick (the Ennis and Nenagh tram has been carefully threaded through the city centre. It has
corridors). In the Ardaun corridor the schools, shops and been done as Thameslink for rail in London, following the
employment centres were to be located on a busway and 1974 London Rail study, and that project’s success soon led to
interspersed with housing, all of which would be within 300 m proposals for a larger scheme, Thameslink 2000, now running
of a bus stop. It was estimated that such a layout would enable late. The far more ambitious London CrossRail scheme (Fig. 15)
the busway to support a 5 min service not only linking will directly connect many suburbs with a service likely to be
together all the homes and trip attractors, but also connecting very competitive with the car.
the whole corridor to the city centre of Galway and thus
improving the inner city bus services. 7.5.1. The importance of interchange. In connecting radial
public transport services to provide for intra-suburban travel
Many bus services already serve such corridors, with housing systems, the importance of convenient interchange is often
estates at either end, a town centre in the middle, and jobs, neglected. Despite the excellent examples of cross-platform
schools and more housing between. But such services are often interchange in London and Hong Kong, it is surprising how
made slow and unreliable by traffic congestion and slow often the opportunities for such edge-of-centre interchanges
ticketing procedures, and are further undermined by parking are missed in the planning of new rail or metro systems. And
policies and by layouts for housing, business parks and at the equivalent of the cross-platform interchange on most
industrial estates, which are almost impossible to serve by bus. bus networks—the high street bus stop—there is commonly no
Recent policy advice has tended to concentrate on issues of special provision for interchange, with passengers obliged to
density, when it is usually the layout that makes new cross busy roads, like round traffic management systems and
developments difficult to serve by public transport. tolerate conditions that would never be imposed on metro
passengers. Only one city in the world, Curitiba (Brazil), has
7.5. Competing with the car in the dispersed (intra- really delivered for buses what we take for granted on most
suburban and semi-urban) travel markets metro and tram systems, and it is not surprising that Curitiba
It is the sprawling suburbs and semi-urban fringes of UK cities provides enclosed, ticketless interchange between its trunk and
for which conventional public transport systems have the feeder bus services. Imagine the London underground without
greatest difficulty in providing a credible alternative to private such interchange; yet we tolerate it on our buses (Fig. 16).
vehicles. In some towns bus services terminate in the centres,
and in some conurbations rail services terminate on the edge of One further possibility seems worth consideration in enabling
central areas. Cross-connecting and inter-working such services existing rail networks to compete with the car in and beyond
is therefore a practical way of connecting at least some of the the intra-suburban travel markets. This is a way of connecting
suburbs and using the demand to the centre to provide far the key nodes on the separate radial suburban rail networks
better service levels than could be justified by the intra- faster than travelling via the city centre. In London one would
suburban markets alone. be referring to stations such as Clapham Junction, East

N18 Ardaun resident


Claregalway/Tuam Adjacent development
Existing development
BP Business park
DC District centre
P1R Park and ride
PS Primary school
PS AT SS Secondary school
CU
LS CU Community use
PS Possible
PS
DC
SS
reloacted LS Local shops
BP
P1R
LS
INDUSTRY runway AT Proposed airport terminal
PI Railway
PARK SPORTS
FY IE freight yard
FY
PI IE passenger stop
N6
Busway/bus stop
N6 Dublin Busway extension
N18 future line
Pedestrian route
Oranmore Bay
Oranmore

N18
Limerick

Fig. 14. Density or layout? The CBP plan for the Ardaun corridor

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 37


Chesham

To Watford
Aylesbury Junction
Amersham Shenfield

Rickmansworth

Harrow &
Wealdstone

Romford

Harrow
on the Hill Wembly Park Ilford

Wembley Stratford
Central Willesden
Junction
Bond Farringdon Whitechapel
Street Royal
Slough Liverpool Docks
To Paddington
Reading
Hayes
Ealing Tottenham Street Woolwich
Broadway Court Road Isle of Arsenal
Dogs
Abbey
Charlton Wood

Heathrow

Dartford
Ebbsfleet

Fig. 15. Serving the dispersed travel markets: CrossRail

junctions, traffic congestion, etc. Urban rail systems, with their


own rights of way, generally offer similar station-to-station
speeds. They do not have the congestion to contend with, but
instead they have to stop and pick up or set down passengers.
Urban buses have both the congestion and the picking up/
setting down to do, and therefore offer stop-to-stop travel
speeds that are generally less than 20 km/h, typically spending
30–40% of their journey times stationary at stops, traffic
signals or in congestion. Their consequent unreliability adds a
further disincentive to passengers, making buses very
unattractive compared with the car. Neither of these
conventional public transport systems therefore offers a
realistic alternative to the car, when door-to-door journey
speeds are considered, unless traffic congestion is very severe
Fig. 16. The tram-like-bus: a stop in Curitiba, Brazil and the bus has really effective priority over the car. Yet the
journey speed of the car remains quite slow, and therefore not
impossible to beat with public transport.
Croydon or West Hampstead. In Stockholm such connections
are being provided by the new non-radial light rail Trarbanan To beat the car with public transport, one has to eliminate the
line. But this is relatively slow. The fast, non-stop Heathrow congestion and junction delays and greatly reduce or eliminate
Express rail link provides a vision of a possible alternative. A the dwell times at stations or stops. One system that does all
high-frequency, high-speed, direct tunnelled link between some these things, and is due to be installed in Cardiff, is ULTra, a
of the key nodes on the different radial rail networks might be development of the cabtrack system conceived at the then Road
worth consideration as an alternative to the awkward cross Research Laboratory, at about the time of Traffic in Towns, but
central area connections or the expensive CrossRail schemes. never taken forward, because of its apparent intrusiveness in
However, even if such schemes were to prove feasible and the urban environment.
justifiable, there would inevitably remain huge segments of the
intra-suburban and semi-urban travel markets for which ULTra achieves non-stop journey speeds of about 40 km/h, by
neither rail nor bus could compete with the car on the fast operating on one-way loops and having all its stops/stations
road. off-line. Though its running speed is slow, its station-to-station
journey speed is likely to prove twice that of a bus, and
7.5.2. ULTra. Providing a form of public transport that sufficiently fast to make it competitive with the car’s door-to-
competes with the car in urban areas is in theory not too door journey speed for many intra-urban and intra-suburban
difficult a problem, because the car itself generally offers door- trips, especially when the delays and costs in finding parking
to-door journey speeds of less than 30 km/h. This is because of spaces are taken into account.

38 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


ULTra’s track has to be completely segregated (Fig. 17). This is ingredients for a completely new and fully automated rail
necessary in order to provide the non-stop travel, and because system, which could use existing tracks and deliver a service
it is driverless. an order of magnitude better than anything available today.
The NBP essentially replaces all the vestiges of nineteenth-
ULTra cannot operate on-street like a tram. Unlike its century rail technology that have been patiently and
precursor, cabtrack, however, the structures needed for ULTra systematically improved and perfected throughout the
can now (thanks to Arups) be made slim and elegant—a result twentieth century (Fig. 18), but which still deliver a service that
partly of advances in structural engineering and partly of a fails to compete with the car in the travel markets that generate
decision to reduce the size and hence the weight of the the bulk of the traffic on Britain’s crowded roads and
vehicles. These carry four passengers and are powered by motorways.
batteries, which are recharged at stations. ULTra will not
compete with rail systems, but it will compete for many trips in Typical non-London station-to-station journey speeds by rail
urban and suburban areas, with buses and with the car. Its are seldom better than 80 km/h (Table 1) and, if they are not
potential to contribute to urban traffic problems is therefore radial to London, they are even slower: 40–80 km/h (Table 2).
worth further consideration.† The NBP proposal is to provide non-stop travel between any
pair of stations or goods depots at 160 km/h.
7.5.3. Neue Bahntechnik Paderborn. Complementing ULTra’s
potential to compete with the car in urban and suburban areas
is an extraordinarily bold and imaginative concept under
Journey Distance: over Running speed:
development in Germany. At the University of Paderborn a track miles mph (km/h)
research team, drawn from the automotive industry and from
the group behind Germany’s very high-speed, linear induction
Manchester–Nottingham 83 49 (78)
motor powered Maglev train, have patiently researched all the Cambridge–Worcester 160 42 (67)
Southampton–Bristol 77 48 (77)
Oxford–Bristol 75 52 (83)
Grantham–Hull 91 51 (82)

Table 1. Rail journey speeds non-London

Journey Time: min Speed: mph


(km/h)

Canterbury–Brighton 170 32 (51)


Milton Keynes–Basingstoke 140 26 (42)
Oxford–Croydon 135 36 (58)
Guildford–Luton 130 40 (64)
Bedford–Southampton 165 49 (78)
Fig. 17. Visualisation of ULTra (an urban alternative to the
car) operating in Cardiff Table 2. London region non-radial rail journey speeds

Fig. 18 Rail: a brilliant product of the first industrial revolution, so far largely untouched by the second

†Since the paper was presented ULTra’s installation in Cardiff has been delayed by tendering problems. It has meanwhile been assessed in several other towns and some
airports, and has been found to be effective and affordable.

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 39


The essential features of the NBP rail technology (Fig. 19) new environmental imperatives have emerged. At the same
are time the options available have become more restricted: the
opportunities for comprehensive redevelopment have retreated,
(a) linear induction motors new roads have (often erroneously) been painted as part of the
(b) modular shuttles problem, and the ‘good, cheap public transport alternatives’,
(c) passive points expected in Traffic in Towns to come to the rescue, have
(d ) mixed passenger and freight ‘trains’ proved hard to deliver.
(e) car technology suspension, including tilting
(f) no signals or drivers There have, however, been some major achievements: the car
(g) 100 mph non-stop station-to-station journey speeds. has been tamed and restricted in many town centres, huge
reductions in fuel consumption are available if we can curb our
Perhaps unsurprisingly NBP has yet to receive any support taste for gas-guzzling four-wheel drives, and the powers are
from the Deutsche Bundesbahn, and has failed to attract now available to enable local authorities to introduce road user
interest in the UK from train operating companies, the charging or workplace parking levies.
Department for Transport, or the Strategic Rail Authority (with
the notable exception of our chairman today). A development However, government and local authorities will find it difficult
that could transform rail travel into something that would be to restrict car use or road freight in the absence of better
preferred to the fast car on the fast road, and which could also alternatives, yet seem to have little concept of what ‘better
transform the delivery of freight, is difficult to conceive given public transport’ needs to comprise and deliver. Conventional
today’s relatively slow rail journey times and amidst today’s public transport and rail freight can provide reasonable
regular fare of cancellations, unreliability and leaves on the alternatives to the fast motor vehicle on the fast road in only a
line. But that is what the NBP development could provide if its limited set of circumstances: long-distance travel, travel to
designers are able to deliver what they claim, and if they are town centres, and trips to other major trip attractors. For the
given the necessary backing. bulk of the traffic on Britain’s crowded roads, which is between
dispersed origins and destinations, there is thus no reasonable
8. CONCLUSIONS alternative.
It is tempting to conclude that Colin Buchanan and the
Traffic in Towns team produced a seminal work, which Although some road space may be released by the greater use
society in general and politicians in particular chose to of alternatives to the motor vehicle in the three travel markets
ignore; and that we are today reaping the consequences of a identified, it is unlikely that this will be sufficient to cater for
deteriorating environment, gridlock on our roads, and the the growth in the much larger, dispersed markets, and it is
prospect of draconian restrictions on our freedom to use cars equally unlikely that traffic restraint will be politically
or much higher charges for the use of roads. But a acceptable in those markets.
remarkable and politically astute feature of Traffic in Towns
was its view that the decisions required were essentially Transport policy will therefore have to achieve a balance
political. Buchanan found himself at the centre of far more between either improving the road system for the car and road
controversy as soon as he became a consultant, trying to freight in these dispersed travel markets or developing new
help authorities from Bath to Kuwait to make those forms of public transport and freight delivery that do provide
decisions, than he did when Traffic in Towns exposed the reasonable alternatives to the car and the goods vehicle.
need for the choices to be made.
In urban and suburban areas new public transport systems of
Nearly 40 years after the publication of Traffic in Towns the the ULTra type have the potential to compete with the car. For
problems it identified have become more intractable: the other, dispersed travel markets the NBP developments in
urbanisation has spread, car dependence has increased, and Germany have the potential to transform the UK’s extensive
rail network, most of which is lightly used for most of the time,
into a far more intensively used system, capable of competing
with the car and the goods vehicle. The transformation would
be from a nineteenth-century technology product of the first
industrial revolution into a twenty-first century product of the
second industrial revolution.

If, however, the policymakers see no alternative to the car


other than for travel to town centres, airports, schools etc. then
they should plan for it. One element of such a plan must be a
revamped charging system, focused on marginal use. Another
must be an improved, safer and environmentally acceptable
highway network.

REFERENCES
1. MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT. Traffic in Towns: A Study of the
Fig. 19. Neue Bahntechnik Paderborn (automated rail shuttles
form trains only to reduce wind resistance) Long-Term Problems of Traffic in Urban Areas. HMSO,
London, 1963.

40 Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan


2. DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, TRANSPORT AND THE REGIONS. 3. Shanghai Memorandum of the International Committee on
A New Deal for Transport: The Government’s White Paper Climate Change, 2001.
on the Future of Transport. The Stationery Office, London, 4. BUCHANAN C. M. I Told You So.
1998, Cm 3950. 5. GLTS, 1991.

Please email, fax or post your discussion contributions to the secretary by 1 August 2004: email: emma.holder@ice.org.uk;
fax: þ44 (0)20 665 2294; or post to Emma Holder, Journals Department, Institution of Civil Engineers, 1–7 Great George Street,
London SW1P 3AA.

Transport 157 Issue TR1 More or less traffic in towns? Buchanan 41

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