Name: Abimbola Omiyale (aao2116)

Assignment: Disasters; Effects, Predictability and Policy Implications

Natural extremes such as earthquakes, tornadoes and storms have always been part of earth’s
dynamic processes but these events evolve into disasters when they affect humans adversely.
Disasters occur when natural hazards occur in areas of acute human vulnerability. (Wikipedia,
2010).Hazards are natural but disasters are not and the level of risk in human systems determines
the magnitude of disasters (Bankoff et al, 2004,p3).Their catastrophic effect spans the economy,
health ,agriculture and ranges from the destruction of lives, livelihoods and to the interruption of
societal developmental processes(causing setbacks). (World Bank, 2005, pp 2-8).

Disasters are classified according to type and they include geophysical (earthquakes, landslides,
volcanoes), hydrological (storms, floods) and meteorological (tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts)
hazards (World Bank, 2005, p3).

Disaster predictions assist in the development of early warning systems which aim to reduce
human casualties. Prediction specifies the time, magnitude, location and duration of the
occurrence of a particular event prior to actual occurrence, outlining its impacts and outcomes.
(Lerner-Lam 2001).The table below based on current scientific knowledge indicates
predictability of several natural disasters.

Table 1

DISASTERS
Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological
Factors Earthquakes Floods Droughts
Location yes yes yes
Timing no maybe yes
Magnitude/Duration yes maybe no
Frequency maybe no yes
Impacts no yes yes
Predictions are made on 2 approaches; empirical and model based. The empirical method utilizes
previous data compiled over long time series and the more the body of data, the more accurate
the predictions are. This is why weather predictions are accurate and earthquakes currently
impossible. (Lerner-Lam 2001).The model based approach utilizes fundamental physical laws
but predictability could be impossible as the understanding of some natural processes is still
incomplete. Disasters also vary in their predictability because of the peculiar character of each;
with droughts, infrastructure is largely unaffected as it is subtle and gradual but earthquakes
(being instantaneous and complex) usually achieve the opposite effect and can trigger secondary
effects like flooding. (Peduzzi et al, 2009) and though there is an understanding of seismic
energy transfer and the location of faults (primary location), secondary risk/vulnerable areas
can’t always be determined (Mutter 2010, pp 33, 45).

Science has been largely successful in identifying global disaster hotspots. The figure below
presents various natural disaster hotspots on earth.

Source: UNEP, 2005, Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis

Figure 1: Natural Hazard Hotspots by Risk Type
Source: UNDP, 2004, Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, a Global Report
Figure 2: Physical Exposure and Relative Vulnerability to Earthquakes (1980-2000)
Patterns of hazards are determined by factors such as seismic fault lines, active volcanoes, or
tsunami susceptible coastlines, but population growth and rapid urbanization with attendant
environmental changes is increasing risk (UN Global Assessment Report, 2009). Between 1980
and 2000, 75% of the earth’s human population inhabited areas that were exposed to the risk of
natural hazards (UNDP, 2004, p18).
Events of the same magnitude will generate different impacts globally as development has a role
in disaster mitigation. LDCs represent 11% of the population exposed to hazards they account
for 53% of casualties while the most developed countries represent 15% of human exposure to
hazards, but account only for 1.8% of all victims (Peduzzi et al., 2009). Case in point is the
earthquakes that occurred in Chile and Haiti earlier this year; the 8.8 quake in Chile which killed
700 people was 500 times stronger than the 7.0 quake that killed an estimated 200,000 Haitians.
(Time, 2010).. This fact is well represented in figures 4,5and 6.
Figure 3: Development Status and Disaster Deaths
Source: UNDP, 2004, Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, a Global Report

Figure 4:Relative Vulnerability to Earthquakes (1980-2000)

Source: UNDP, 2004, Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, a Global Report
Figure 5: Relative Vulnerability to Droughts (1980-2000)
Source: UNDP, 2004, Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, a Global Report
Predictability is about hazard risks and outcomes. Disasters have different development
outcomes for different parts of the world. Rich countries are usually able to mitigate disaster risk
and shrug off the negative effects by getting back on course their former development patterns
while poor countries may be caught in a vicious circle called the “recovery gap”. Frequent
disasters make a poor country focus her energy on rebuilding rather than development. LDCs are
most affected by disasters because of the low level of development and the low level of
development persists because just before recovery is achieved, another disaster strikes. Imagine
the situation if Haiti is struck with another 7.0 quake today. Below is a figure illustrating the
recovery gap.
Figure 6: Illustration of The Recovery Gap Source (Mutter, 2010,p16)
Predictability of natural disasters has helped rich countries develop better preparedness through
policies, tools and instruments like construction methods and materials designed to produce
resilient infrastructure, financial instruments like insurance policies, state of the art water and
drainage systems to combat droughts and flash flooding respectively. However poor countries
are simply powerless to do anything to defend their lives and livelihoods from the assault of
nature. From figure 4 Japan has the highest exposure to earthquake, but Iran is the most
vulnerable.
Implications of Predictability for Disaster Mitigation Policy.
Tackling Poverty: It can be said that the best disaster mitigation policy is that which addresses
the eradication of poverty. Poverty simply defeats the human will needed to fight the vagaries of
weather. Forecast and predictability are very important, but the technologies needed to combat
these ills are equally important. Technology is the only way we as a species survived, but a poor
society simply can’t access the kind of technology it requires to ensure self preservation. It is
pertinent to state that disasters have been treated for so long as a humanitarian crisis instead of a
developmental crisis and we must realize that if disasters risks are to be mitigated, then poverty
must be tackled.(UNDP,2004,p i)
Resettlement and Immigration Policies: Natural disasters are here to stay and they are not
going to end anytime soon. Population expansion has increased human vulnerability, so for
hazard hotspots that lack the financial and economic wherewithal to engineer complex
infrastructure capable of reducing risk, it is advocated that resettlement be seriously considered.
Migration might be the most viable option for poor economies like Haiti especially as
seismologists have shown that Haiti is sitting on two seismic fault lines. After any global
hazards, disaster refugees increase exponentially, this impacts the surrounding countries as
refugees attempt to seek better lives elsewhere. Hence there is a need to review immigration
rules for citizens of disaster prone poor economies. After the earthquake in Port-au Prince “U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton indicated that the Obama administration is “looking at” legal
immigration as a means to ease the crisis” (Americas Society, 2010).
Research into better risk-assessment tools: While disaster predictability has reduced human
vulnerabilities, more funds should be channeled into the prediction and earth science research.
The more understanding we have about earth’s dynamic processes the better prepared we are
going to be. The UNDP did this with the development of disaster risk index in 2004.
Recovery and Planning: A disaster does not always have bad outcomes. It could create a basis
for better developmental processes and methods, inflow of necessary foreign direct investment
and capturing the world’s attention which is a rare thing to do. So governments profit and non-
for profit organizations should seriously look into ways of investing in poor countries by
establishing infrastructure and systems that strengthens and builds the resilience of human
response systems to natural extremes. Rephrasing the words of John Mutter; disasters don’t kill,
systems do (adapted from “earthquakes don’t kill, buildings do”. (Mutter, 2010, p66)
References
1. Americas Society, 2010:The Haitian Migration Debate by Carin Zissis,[html],
[Online].Available at <http://www.as-
coa.org/articles/2130/The_Haitian_Migration_Debate/>[Accessed October 20,2010]

2. Greg Bankoff, Georg Frerks, Dorothea Hilhorst, 2004: Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters,
Development and People,[pdf],[Online], Available at <
http://styluspub.com/resrcs/frontm/1853839647_intro.pdf>, [Accessed October 12,2010]

3. Lerner-Lam 2001:How Predictable are Natural Disasters;(A 3 part interactive media lecture),
[html],Available at < http://ci.columbia.edu/lerner-lam/web/lecture.html?mod3>,[ Accessed
October 12,2010]
4. Mutter J.C, 2010: Natural Disasters and Sustainable Development [pdf].Columbia
University,SIPA.Available Through: Columbia University
Courseworks<https://courseworks.columbia.edu/cms/[ Accessed October 10 ,2010].

5. P. Peduzzi1,2, H. Dao3, C. Herold1, and F. Mouton, 2009: Assessing global exposure and
vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index,[pdf], [Online], Available at <
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1149/2009/>, [Accessed October 12,2010]

6. Time Magazine 2010:Chile and Haiti;A Tale of Two Earthquakes,[html], [Online],Available

at < http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html> [Accessed October
12,2010]

7. United Nations Development Programme, 2004:Reducing Disaster Risks,A Challenge for

Development [pdf], [Online], Available at < http://www.undp.org/cpr/disred/rdr.htm>[ Accessed
October 12,2010]

8. United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction,2009:Risk and

Poverty in a Changing Climate.[pdf], [Online], Available at <
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/report/index.php?id=9413>,[ Accessed
October 12,2010]

9. Wikipedia, 2010: Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, Natural Disasters, [html], [Online],
Available at < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_disaster>[Accessed October 12,2010]

10. World Bank, 2005: Natural Disasters Hotspots; A Global Risk Analysis, [pdf], [Online],
Available at < http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/research/hotspots/> [Accessed October
12,2010]