Passion:

Misalkan dari 50 siswa SD kelas 1, rata-rata ada 2 orang yang

dapat berenang. Sebuah sampel berukuran 100 siswa sudah diambil. Jika

adalah banyak siswa SD kelas 1 yang dapat berenang. Berapa peluangsiswa SD kelas 1 yang tidak dapat berenang?

Jawab:

Suppose that from 50 first grade elementary students, on average there are 2 people who can swim. A sample of 100
students has been taken. If

is a lot of grade 1 elementary students who can swim. What are the chances of a 1st grade elementary student who
can not swim?

Answer:

Normal:

1. T Work Electric, memproduksi Bohlam Lampu yang dapat hidup 900 jam dengan standar deviasi 50 jam.
PT Work Electric ingin mengetahui berapa persen produksi pada kisaran antara 800-1.000 jam, sebagai
bahan promosi bohlam lampu. Hitung berapa probabilitasnya!

Jawab:
P(800<X<1.000)?
Hitung nilai Z
Z1 = (800-900)/50 = -2,00;
Z2 = (1.000-900)/50 = 2,00
Jadi: P(800<X<1.000) =P(-2,00<Z<2,00);
P(-2,00<Z) = 0,4772 dan P(Z>2,00) = 0,4772
Sehingga luas daerah yang diarsir adalah = 0,4772+0,4772= 0,9544. Jadi P(800<X<1.000) = P(-2,00 < Z<2,00) =
0,9544.
Jadi 95,44% produksi berada pada kisaran 800-1.000 jam. Jadi jika PT Work Electric mengklaim bahwa lampu
bohlamnya menyala 800-1.000 jam, mempunyai probabilitas benar 95,44%, sedang sisanya 4,56% harus
dipersiapkan untuk garansi.
1. T Work Electric, producing a light bulb that can live 900 hours with standard deviation 50 hours. PT Work
Electric wants to know what percentage of production is in the range between 800-1,000 hours, as a bulb bulb
promotion material. Calculate how the probability!

Answer:

P (800 <X <1,000)?

Calculate the value of Z

Z1 = (800-900) / 50 = -2.00;

Z2 = (1,000-900) / 50 = 2.00

So: P (800 <X <1,000) = P (-2.00 <Z <2.00);

P (-2.00 <Z) = 0.4772 and P (Z> 2.00) = 0.4772

So that the shaded area is = 0.4772 + 0,4772 = 0,9544. So P (800 <X <1,000) = P (-2.00 <Z <2.00) = 0.9544.

So 95.44% production is in the range of 800-1000 hours. So if PT Work Electric claims that the bulb lights up at
800-1000 hours, it has a 95.44% true probability, while the remaining 4.56% should be prepared for the warranty.

2. PT GS mengklaim rata-rata berat buah mangga “B” adalah 350 gram dengan standar deviasi 50 gram. Bila berat
mangga mengikuti distribusi normal, berapa probabilitas bahwa berat buah mangga mencapai kurang dari 250 gram,
sehingga akan diprotes oleh konsumen.

Jawab:

Transformasi ke nilai z

AP(x< 250); P(x=250) = (250-350)/50=-2,00 Jadi P(x<250)=P(z<-2,00)

Lihat pada tabel luas di bawah kurva normal

P(z<-2,00)=0,4772

Luas sebelah kiri nilai tengah adalah 0,5. Oleh sebab itu, nilai daerah yang diarsir menjadi 0,5 – 0,4772=0,0228. Jadi
probabilitas di bawah 250 gram adalah 0,0228 (2,28%). Dengan kata lain probabilitas konsumen protes karena berat
buah mangga kurang dari 250 gram adalah 2,28%.
2. PT GS claims the average weight of mango "B" is 350 grams with a standard deviation of 50 grams. If the weight
of a mango follows a normal distribution, what is the probability that the weight of the mango reaches less than 250
grams, so it will be protested by the consumer.

Answer:

Transformation to the value of z

AP (x <250); P (x = 250) = (250-350) / 50 = -2.00 So P (x <250) = P (z <-2.00)

Look at the broad table below the normal curve

P (z <-2.00) = 0.4772

The area to the left of the middle value is 0.5. Therefore, the value of shaded area becomes 0,5 - 0,4772 = 0,0228. So
the probability below 250 grams is 0.0228 (2.28%). In other words the probability of consumers protest because the
weight of mango less than 250 grams is 2.28%.

Binomial:

Soal dan pembahasan distribusi binomial

rumus:

P (X = a) = nCa (px)a(q)n-a

P (X ≤ a) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) +...+ P(X=a)

P ( X ≥ a)= 1- P(X < a)

n : banyaknya percobaan

p : peluang sukses

q : peluang gagal = 1-px

a : banyaknya sukses

Contoh soal:

Melalui data yang diperoleh dari polisi lalu lintas diketahui peluang banyaknya

korban kecelakaan lalu lintas yang meninggal dunia adalah 30%. Tentukanlah

peluang apabila diamati 20 orang yang mengalami kecelakaan lalu lintas bahwa:

a. banyaknya korban yang meninggal dunia sama dengan 3 orang

b. banyaknya peluang yang meninggal paling sedikit 3 orang

PENYELESAIAN:

Diketahui: n = 20

px = 7

q = 1 - px = 0,7

a=3

a. Peluang banyaknya korban yang meninggal = 3

P(X = 3) = nCa (px)a(1-px)n-a

= 20C3 (0,3)3(0,7)20-3

= 1140 . (0,027). (0,002326)

= 0,0716

b. Peluang panyaknya korban yang meninggal paling sedikit 3 (X ≥ 3)

P ( X ≥ 3)= 1- P (X < 3)

= 1 - {P (X=0) + P (X=1) + P (X =2)}

= 1 - {7,979 x 10-4+ 68,393 x 10-4+ 278,4 x 10-4}

= 1- 354,772 x 10-4

= 0,9645

Problem and discussion of binomial distribution

formula:

P (X = a) = nCa (px) a (q) n-a

P (X ≤ a) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + ... + P (X = a)

P (X ≥ a) = 1- P (X <a)

n: number of experiments

p: chance of success

q: chance of failure = 1-px

a: the number of successes

Problems example:

Through the data obtained from the traffic police is known the number of opportunities

the traffic accident victims who died was 30%. Determine

opportunities when observed 20 people who had a traffic accident that:

a. the number of victims who died was equal to 3 people

b. the number of opportunities that died at least 3 people

COMPLETION:

Given: n = 20

px = 7

q = 1 - px = 0.7

a=3

a. Opportunities of the number of victims who died = 3

P (X = 3) = nCa (px) a (1-px) n-a

= 20C3 (0.3) 3 (0.7) 20-3

= 1140. (0.027). (0.002326)

= 0.027

b. Opportunities for the number of victims who died at least 3 (X ≥ 3)

P (X ≥ 3) = 1- P (X <3)

= 1 - {P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)}

= 1 - {7,979 x 10-4 + 68,393 x 10-4 + 278,4 x 10-4}

= 1- 354,772 x 10-4

= 0.9645