Technology Management

NMIMS
Session 3
Technology Audit, Planning and Forecasting
From S-curves to Firm level strategy
Technology Strategy

-Formulate a strategy to gain sustainable

strategic advantage that provides
competitive edge in line with the firm’s
Business strategy
-It concerns exploiting, developing and
maintaining the sum total of company’s
knowledge and abilities
Technology Planning
What is Technology Planning ?

Process of Planning the technical evolution

of the firm to meet business goals
Technology Planning
How is it different from Technology Strategy?
Identification phase (technology planning)

1 2 3

4
Technology audit

The main objectives of the technology auditing are identifying and

evaluating the firm’s technological resources and capabilities as well as
assessing and ranking its technologies.
Technology audit answers
I. What technologies do the firm possess and depend on?
II. Where these are on S-curve?
III. How do they compare with competition?
IV. What technology competence does the firm possess?
V. What protection does firm enjoy for its technologies?
VI. What emerging technologies can could affect it’s tech position?
VII. What is the value of company’s technology to it’s customers?
VIII.…
IX. …
Level - 1

Technology Audit Model (TAM)

Technology audit – step I
what technologies do the firm possess?

Assess and
List Arrange Compare Identify Prepare
rank
List all the Arrange them Assess and rank Compare with Identify Prepare action
technologies in forms that technologies competition strengths and plan
the firm provide insights • Primary weaknesses
possess • Categories, impact
matrices • Secondary
effects
Product technology matrix
Technology audit - step II
Where are your technologies on S-curve

Source: Richard Foster, Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage

(New York: Summit Books, 1986), p. 31.
Implications of S-curve

Phase Symptoms Implications

Embryonic Experimental phase. Direction of technology Invest in technology
advance unclear development
Growth Dominant technology emerge. Market Invest in marketing
volumes rise.
Maturity Little tech advance. Product markets are Invest in next generation
saturated. technology
Decline Market volumes decline Introduce products based on
new technology
 You have competitive advantage if your
technologies are superior to competitors’

Technology Your competitive advantage will last till you

audit – step III can protect your technological edge

How do your Base technology

technologies
compare with
Key / differentiating technology
competitors’?
Pacing or disruptive technology
 Dominant

Technology
audit – step IV Strong

what
Favorable
technology
competence
Tenable
does the firm
possess?
Weak
 Many technologies get created in a routine
manner to solve real life problems with the firm’s
products
Technology
audit – step V Many firms loose the opportunity to patent their
technology
What Often the novelty of such
Often firms do not have
resources dedicated to IP
solutions is overlooked
protection protection

does firm
enjoy for its An audit can reveal such gaps

technologies?
Even if the technologies were protected, audit
reveals useful information
Dow Chemicals
Technology audit report

Competitive
Technology Phase Type Competence Protection
Advantage
Tech 1 Mature Base * Dominant Some
Tech 2 Growth Key *** Favorable Patent
Tech 3 Embryonic Pacing Weak None
Technology Planning framework
1. Forecast technology
2. Analyse and forecast environment for threats and Weaknesses
3. Analyse and forecast Market and users
4. Analyse Organization – Internal Strengths and Weaknesses, People and
processes, assess recent performance against objectives
5. Develop Mission –assumptions, organizational objectives and target for
planning period, measurements for objectives
6. Design Organizational action - Create candidate (Key) actions, analyse and
debate, develop consensus
7. Put the plan in operation
1. Develop timelines
2. Action steps
3. Schedules
4. Budget
5. Tracking mechanism
 Forecasting Technology – Step 1 of Planning
“A technological forecast is a prediction of future characteristics of useful machines”

What could be the problem with

Traditional Forecasting methods are
based on past data?
 Forecasting Technology – Step 1 of Planning
What could be the problem with
Traditional Forecasting methods are
based on past data?

• Future state will depend on –

physical limits of technology
• Social and environmental factors
influencing development
• Market conditions compared to
competitors
Management should
be able to predict the
next S-curve, abandon
the old and invest in
the new technology
What do you forecast about technology

Rate of Likelihood
Growth in Diffusion rate
replacement Market and timing of
functional of the new
of old with penetration tech
capability tech
new tech breakthrough
What makes a good forecast?
• Credibility & Utility
• Accurate info. Base
• Clearly described methods and models
• Clearly defined and supported assumptions
• Quantitative expressions
• Stated Level of confidence in the forecast
 Methods of Technology Forecasting
Method Done using … Based on …
Monitoring & Tracking scanning the environment for technology can change anytime..
information Counter Punching

Expert opinion Delphi method Intuition

Trend analysis Mathematical and Statistical Past data

techniques

Modelling Analogy, flow diagrams, Present feedback data

equations, scale models ,
computer simulations

Scenarios – Snapshots of the Snapshots of the future Future scenarios

future
Important

The most comprehensive and useful forecasts are

the result of a combination of these approaches.

Each approach, in and of itself, may provide a

limited perspective on a technology’s future worth.
Comparison between Technology Forecasting
methods
parameters Description Assumptions Strengths Weaknesses Uses

Methods

Monitoring

Expert opinion

Trend analysis

Modelling

Scenarios
 Create a technology forecast using any of the approaches and
methods discussed before

Expert Share the forecast individually with experts empaneled

opinion - Members share their feedback on the forecast with the coordinator

Delphi survey Coordinator aggregates the responses and share them incognito
- intuitive with the members asking if they would like to revise their feedback

approach After few rounds, coordinator creates the final forecast

Retains the advantage of having several judges while removing the

biasing effects that might occur in face-to-face interaction
 Trends analysis uses mathematical and
statistical techniques to extend past time series
data into the future

Trend Analysis Assumption: Future will be like the past. Past

trends will continue in future
-
extrapolation Strengths: data based approach of quantifiable
characteristics parameters. Accurate for short time frames

Weaknesses: requires lot of good data to be

accurate. Does not work for discontinuities or
disruptive breakthroughs.
 Trend
extrapolation
– chip density
 Mathematical technique to project the rate of
market adoption of technically superior new
technologies and, when appropriate, projects
the loss of market share by old technologies

Fisher-Pry f(t) - % of market served by a technology at time t

𝛼 - half the annual fractional growth in the early years
Model t0.5 - time to reach 50% of the target market or
f(t0.5)=50%
Both 𝛼 and t0.5 are based on extrapolation of earlier
trends

f 𝑡 = [1 + tanh 𝛼(𝑡 − 𝑡0.5

𝛼 decides the shape of S − curve
Modelling

• Simulations
• Analogy - Forecasting by analogy
• Analogy analysis is based on pattern analysis philosophy
Analogy analysis
• Assumption: the patterns of development and diffusion for new tech
are often similar to those for some (analogous) old tech
• Process:
• Identify appropriate analogies and analyze similarities and differences
• Desirable to identify more than one applicable example
• The results are typically semi-quantitative in nature
• Often presented as a range of possibilities rather than a single projection.
Forecasting by Analogy –
Is nanotechnology

01 02 03
Like Like biotechnology? Like something else
semiconductors? OR altogether?
OR
 Assumption: the increased interest in new tech, together
with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be
reflected in increased R&D activity which, in turn, will be
reflected by increased patent activity.

Analysis of patterns of patent application will reveal new

tech opportunities and the state of development of given
tech
Patent
analysis
Results are often presented in quantified terms

However, their use in decision-making is normally based on

a qualitative evaluation.
Technology Roadmap
Outcome of Technology Forecasting
Technology Roadmap provides-
• A broad perspective of a number of factors influencing product or technology development
• Vision
• Strategy
• Market Requirements
• Product or Service Plans
• Competing Products or Services
• Technology
• Capabilities (People, Processes, Tools)
• Intellectual Property
Technology Road Mapping (TRM)

Motorola broadcast automotive FM receiver Roadmap

TRM IN STRATEGIC PLANNING
Product planning road map