Natural Hazards 1 (1988) 27-44.

27
© 1988 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Seismic Hazard Analysis for The Philippines

S. S. SU
Manila Observatory, P.O. Box 1231, Manila, Philippines D404

(Received: 2 June 1987; revised: 24 August 1987)

Abstract. Two sample probabilistic hazard maps for the Philippine Region are compiled. In these are shown
various levels of expected horizontal ground acceleration for some given annual probability of exceedence,
namely, for 0.1% a.p.e, and for 0.01% a.p.e. Such hazard maps are needed by structural engineers for
compiling seismic zoning maps. The hazard maps are derived from source-zone or seismogenic maps,
which, in turn, are compiled from seismographic, geologic, and geotectonic data. Much weight is put on
geotectonic data rather than on seismographic data. The former lends support to extrapolating to much
longer periods of 'exposure time' or longer periods of recurrence.

Key words. Hazard analysis, risk analysis, seismic zoning, probabilistic.

1. Introduction
Seismologists make a distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk. Seismic
hazard is defined as the probability of occurrence of a specified level of ground
shaking within a specified period of time. Seismic risk, on the other hand, is defined
as the expected (or probable) building damage (or loss of or injury to life), given the
probability that specified levels of ground shaking occur.

2. Background
Structural engineers in the Philippines, in designing buildings according to some code,
such as the Unified Building Code, would like to see the existence of a seismic hazard
map. Such a map would enable them to assign a seismic zone number or seismic safety
factor to each building they design depending upon its site location anywhere in the
Philippines.
Two kinds of quasi-hazard maps have heretofore been compiled and used but they
contain inherent shortcomings that a strictly probabilistic hazard map avoids. The
first is a map based solely on recorded seismicity. This kind of map focuses on
epicenter concentrations and fails to generalize to likely areas of future seismicity.
Furthermore, it fails to specify the type of hazardous ground motion. The second type
of map is based on recorded maximum intensity of ground motion but still fails to
generalize to future areas of hazardous ground shaking. Besides, such a map tends to
overstate the hazard in regions where the frequency of occurrence is quite low
compared to other more seismically active areas. A strictly probabilistic hazard map,
it will be seen, avoids all these shortcomings of the two previous types of maps.
28 s.s. Su
The first set of probabilistic hazard maps for the Philippines was introduced by this
author in September of 1979 as a result of a pilot project of the Southeast Asia
Seismological Program undertaken by the UNDP in cooperation with the UNESCO.
It was envisioned that eventually a more detailed and definitive set of maps would be
compiled. As a continuance of this work, seismic source zones were revised in 1985
(Su, 1985) and again in 1986. This last revision is incorporated into this paper and
contains some radical changes from the 1985 version (which will be pointed out later
on) and thus paved the way for finalizing the hazard maps that are presented here.

3. Method
The probabilistic approach to seismic hazard analysis that is adopted here, as it was
in the U.S. and Canada, follows the methodology of Cornell (1968), and of Algermissen
et al. (1982). According to this approach, one takes into account three distinct regions:
first, the source or seismogenic region; second, the site where hazard is estimated; and
third, the intervening region between the source and the site. The biggest and most
difficult step is the detailed specification of the source zones. The resulting map of
source zones has to be based not only on seismographic (instrumental) and macroseis-
mic data (such as felt intensity) but also on geology and geotectonics. It will be seen
later that the map of the source zones and the final hazard maps will bear striking
similarities.
Epicenters in seismogenic regions are treated statistically both spatially and tem-
porally: that is, they are given a random distribution both in space and in time.
In the spatial distribution of epicenters, one assumes that within a given source or
fault line, an earthquake is equally likely to occur at one point as at any other point.
Thus, the probability density is a constant, i.e., evenly distributed within the source.
To find the cumulative probability one integrates over the entire source area or the
entire fault length.
In the temporal distribution of earthquakes, the Poisson model has been chosen
here, as is frequently done, because of its simplicity in concept and in hazard estimation.
Other models, such as the Markov model, could have been used.
In addition to the random distribution of epicenters in space and time within the
seismogenic region, there is also the magnitude-frequency distribution or the magnitude
probability function which is statistically derived from earthquake frequency data.
This distribution gives the probability of an earthquake falling within a certain
magnitude range.

4. Scope of the Data for This Study

The earthquake data that provided the basis for the present hazard analysis cover a
period of twenty years: from 1964 to 1983. They include epicenters from latitude 0°
to latitude 24°, and from longitude 116 to 130°E. Despite this short period of the
seismographic database, it is the backing of the geologic and geotectonic data that
SEISMIC HAZARDANALYSISFOR THE PHILIPPINES 29
lends support to extrapolations to future 'exposure times' of the order of 500 years
or more.

5. Source Zones
5.1. Procedure

The procedure consists of two parts. The first part is a rough delineation of the source
zone boundaries based on seismographic data. The second part is a more refined or
detailed delineation of the zone boundaries by recourse to geotectonic data.

5.2. Part I
Seismographic data (epicenter, focal depth, magnitude) include those of 3872 earth-
quakes in the Philippine region from 1964 to 1983. These are shown in the epicentral
maps of Figures 1 and 2, taken from Su (1985). From this database, two contour maps
were prepared: one for energy flux and one for the b-values of the magnitude-
frequency relation (Figures 3 and 4). From the overlay of these four maps a general
rough-approximation map of the seismogenic zones was prepared. This is shown in
Figure 5 (taken from Su, 1985).

5.3. Part H
Based on published literature on the geology and tectonics of the Philippines, the
zones of Part I are re-defined and subdivided. As mentioned above (in 'background'),
the 1985 version of the source zones (Su, 1985) has been revised. The revised versions
are shown in Figures 6 and 7. The main feature of the revision is that faults (Zones
9 to 18) are now treated separately from nonfaults (Zones 1 to 8). Other details of the
revision will be described as each zone is taken up.

5.3.1. Zone 1. Zone 1, the East Luzon subduction zone, has a different subdivision
from its 1985 version. The former 1D, the transform fault, is now Zone 17. The
present 1D lies east of 1C. IA and 1C are at present seismically much more active than
1B and 1D (Lewis and Hayes, 1983). Focal mechanisms for Zone 1 are predominantly
of the thrust type while those of Zone 4 (which is contiguous to 1A and 1C) are
generally of the strike-slip type (Lewis and Hayes, 1983, citing Cardwell et al., 1980;
Seno and Kurita, 1978; Fitch, 1972; Katsumata and Sykes, 1969). Negative free-air
gravity anomaly in 1A and 1C is interpreted as indicating crustal downwarping and
a precursor to rupture (Lewis and Hayes, 1983).
High seismicity, focal mechanism solutions, and seismic sounding profiles show
Recent (Pleistocene) to Present underthrusting in 1C (Cardwell et al., 1980). However,
the absence of active volcanism, and the lack of a well-defined Benioff zone and of
earthquakes deeper than 200 km show that current subduction is young.
 3O S. S. SU

,,116 ° II O° 120 °. 1220 124 ° 126° leO" 130`0

v • i , v u u 1

Jonuory 1 9 6 4 - December 1983

N
.' .:.
;:.
4 Oepth of
0 - 71
Focus (kin)
Unknown
M b : 4.0-5.9
2~
• " • ":t';~" .... .' M L : 3.0-5.7
•. " : "Z
..~. ,~& ~o, M b = 6.0-7.9

,so

,6'

,g

12`0

I0 °

8°
• o

• •

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6~

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• -
.o • ,- :, ,-'" , -.o.'. t •

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,. :. ..~./.. A.~. :..'-~i "-. "
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o, • •
-- .-. t -:..;:4 .-., :" , ' ~ . .
• .a. . . ,.-....L~ ; ~( .,. •
°o •. , - ' , , - :~;~,: .... _-..
o~ • ¢.: o

, I I I I h I I I I | l I

Fig. 1. Seismicity map (depth = 0-70km, 1964-1983).

SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PHILIPPINES 31
It~ ° 118 ° 120 ° 122 ° 1~4 ° 126 ° 128 ° 130°[

Interme~e Focus
Jnm~y 1964- I~:~.lx~ 1983
• • .°
Diplh of FOCus (kin)
71 - 3 0 0
id b : 4 , 0 -S.9
~o" ,.. "o" °.
Id t • 3 . O - S , 7
• ** ** .'ll

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.a

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r I" , • . . , .

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•

1# - , . ., ~ . j . " : . . ' ~ . ~ . . : , , ,. , • •
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I" • , ~, ~ .. : ~'.~,~ ~ • ;,~:'." .
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• ,., • ...~,. :, ,
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• ,,'. ,..f" .'" " . " " "-;i"

i i I I I I I i I I i I I I

Fig. 2. Seismicity map (depth = 71-300km, 1964-1983).

 32 S. S. SU

Iltl e I
Ill* I|0° 1|2 e 124° IZ6* 121lee i,i
i 1 i • v

Seismic Flux Jonuory 1964 - Oecmnber 1983

SOisl1~icity Contours in Units
b of I0 IB I[rgs k n n Z y r I
/

~
N
q

,a'

,6'

~e

,m • •

b"

!
,\
3

'=C~" s

,I

Fig. 3. Energy flux map (contours numbered in 1015ergs km -2 year -1).

SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PHILIPPINES 33

116 ° 118 e 120 ° 122 ° 124 ° 126 ° 128 ° E

75 70 .65
~, \ \ \
N 85 .80
N
20°

18 °

,6*

.70
14 ¢ "~14 o

.85
.80
.8(~
12" !12°
.75 .85

%.65
8c 8°
.70

6° G°

.75
4° 4°

.65 .69 .70 .71

2° 2°

116 ° I15 ° 120° I Z 2° 124 ° 126° 128° E

Fig. 4. b-values, 1964~1983.

34 S. S. SU
120" IZ5=E

N
20" J

d Its*

to*

o
-D
C'
c~

o
5

I
120° 125=E

Fig. 5. Preliminary seismogenie zones.

5.3.2. Zones 2 and 3. The transcurrent Philippine Fault, which was the former Zone
3 of the 1985 version, is now Zone 9. The present Zone 2 and Zone 3 comprise the
Philippine Trench (2B and 3B) and its Quaternary volcanic forearc (2A and 3A)
(Divis, 1980). North latitude 12° separates Zone 2 from Zone 3. Zone 2 has a poorly
developed Benioff zone that dips westward to a depth of about 100 km (Cardwell et
al., 1980). Zone 3 has a better developed Benioff zone that extends to a depth of about
200 km south of Samar, as shown by intermediate earthquakes. Considerably deeper
earthquakes are found east of Mindanao and southward to Talaud Island.
The relative shallowness of the dipping lithosphere in Zones 2 and 3, together with
the lack of significant Quaternary volcanism in Eastern Mindanao and Samar (Lewis
and Hayes, 1983), coupled with the evidence from seismic reflection profiles showing
SEISMIC H A Z A R D ANALYSIS F O R T H E PHILIPPINES 35

SOURCE ZONES Nos. I fo B

(FAULTS • FINITE-WIDTH SOURCE ZONES
-25
ARE IN A SEPARATE MAP)

20

15

Io
-5

115 120 125 130

l I I I I I I i l = I l I = = = I

Fig. 6. Source zones Nos. 1 to 8 (faults = Finite-Width Source Zones are in a Separate Map).

no well-developed accretionary prism in the forearc region (Hamilton, 1979; Karig,

1975; Karig and Sharman, 1975) strongly suggest that the present subduction episode
may have begun only in Quaternary time, and is still propagating southward to the
east of Talaud and Halmahera islands (Cardwell et al., 1980; Murphy, 1973).

5.3.3. Z o n e 4. Zone 4 is the double forearc associated with the Manila Trench which
lies west of Luzon (Lewis and Hayes, 1983; Cardwell et al., 1980; Karig, 1973). 4B and
4D are the 'inner' volcanic forearc while 4A and 4C make up the 'outer' nonvolcanic
forearc.
36 s.s. su

PHILIPPINE FAULTS
(AS FINITE-WIDTH SOURCE ZONES)
20

.15

.IO
/
,5
after Philippine Bureau of Mines, 1981.
120 125
I 1 I I I I [ I I I I i I I,,, ,

Fig. 7. Philippine faults (as Finite-Width Source Zones). (After Philippine Bureau of Mines, 1981.)

Seismicity is much higher in 4C than in 4D; also relatively higher in 4A than in 4B.
4B and 4D are marked by presently active volcanoes and Quaternary cones (Cardwell
et al., 1980).
Focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes in the N o r t h Luzon Ridge (4B) are
predominantly of the strike-slip type Some of these are left-lateral and some are
right-lateral.

5.3.4. Z o n e 5. Zone 5 is the Manila Trench. It has a Benioff zone that dips 40 °
eastward. The dip angle increases to almost 90 ° as one proceeds southward to Manila
SEISMIC HAZARDANALYSISFOR THE PHILIPPINES 37
Bay. The Benioff zone extends to a depth of about 200 km (Hayes and Lewis, 1984).
South of latitude 13°, the Manila Trench changes its trend from north-south to
northwest-southeast, and curves towards the Mindoro Strait. This is believed to be
due to the collision of the subducting lithosphere with the North-Palawan (Calamian)
micro-continental block (Lewis and Hayes, 1984).
Seismicity is lower in the trench itself (5A) than in the forearc (5B). Present day
volcanic activity in the forearc is an indication of convergence between the South
China Sea Plate and Luzon (Hamburger et al., 1983). Convergence rate is estimated
at about 10 to 20ram per year (Hayes and Lewis, 1984).

5.3.5. Zone 6. Zone 6 comprises the Negros Trench and the Sulu Trench (6A) and
their volcanic forearcs (6B). Seismicity is relatively low in this subduction zone. There
are relatively few shallow earthquakes of the thrust type in the Negros Trench.
However, seismic reflection profiles show sediments being underthrusted to the east
along the Negros Trench (Cardwell et al., 1980; Hamilton, 1979). There is no clearly
defined Benioff zone; but there are intermediate earthquakes suggesting that the
lithosphere is being subducted eastward (Cardwell et al., 1980).
The Sulu Ridge (6B) parallels the Palawan Ridge which has no seismicity at all. The
Sulu Ridge is associated with a subduction that occurred from late Cenozoic to
Pleistocene (Cardwell et al., 1980).
The Negros Trench and the Sulu Trench are considered to be one tectonic unit
(Divis, 1980). Kanlaon is an active volcano on Negros Island.

5.3.6. Zones 7 and 8. The former 7A of the 1985 version is now subdivided into 7A
(the Cotabato Trench) and 7B (the forearc to the east-northeast) in the present
version. The former 7B is now Zone 8 which is subdivided into 8A (western and
deeper part of the dipping lithosphere) and 8B (eastern and shallower part of the
lithosphere).
Zone 7 and Zone 8 cover the same geographic area. Zone 7 is the shallower
structure. Zone 8 is the deeper structure which is the northern extension of the
Molucca Sea Plate. This plate had buckled and dips both westward and eastward. Its
surface expression is the Sangihe Ridge. Zone 8 is the westward dipping portion of
the Molucca Sea Plate. It is characterized by intermediate earthquakes (8B) and deep
earthquakes (8A), as far down as 680 km (Cardwell et al., 1980).

5.3.7. Faults (Zones 9 to 18).. Following the division of Philippine faults into trans-
current, normal, and thrust faults according to the Philippine Bureau of Mines (1981),
three transcurrent, two normal, and three thrust faults are considered very probably
seismically active. In addition, two transform faults are added. Thus, a total of ten
faults are selected as source zones.
In the context of the methodology commonly in use, there are two possible ways
of viewing faults. One is to regard them as line sources; the other is to treat them as
finite-width sources. In regarding them as line sources, as for example in McGuire's
38 s.S. su
'Frisk' program (1978), additional fault parameters such as rupture length have to be
considered. In treating them as finite-width sources, their parameters are no different
from those of Zones 1 to 8 earlier described.
A test was made to compare the results of treating a fault as a line source and as
a finite-width source. The results agree very closely. Thus, as a measure of convenience,
faults are considered finite-width sources and included in the same computation used
for Zones 1 to 8.

5.3.8. Transcurrent Faults (Zones 9 to 11). Zone 9 is the transcurrent Philippine Fault
that extends over 1200 km from Lingayen Gulf in Luzon to the Davao Gulf south of
Mindanao (Allen, 1962). Krause (1966) suggests that it extends south of Mindanao
along a submarine scarp into the Talaud Islands. Movement is left-lateral strike-slip
(Ranneft et al., 1960; Allen, 1962; Rutland, 1968). Morante and Allen (1974) studied
the geomorphic effects of the 1973 Ragay Gulf earthquake and found a left-lateral
displacement of 3.2 m near the Tayabas Isthmus of Southern Luzon. This was later
confirmed by an earthquake focal mechanism solution of Lewis and Hayes (1983).
Other earthquakes (1937, 1973, 1975) studied by Acharya and Aggarwal (1980) have
focal mechanisms that can be correlated with the left-lateral movement along the
fault. Geomorphic features in other parts of Luzon, Masbate, and Leyte likewise
indicate left-lateral movements (Allen, 1962).
Eight other large earthquakes, namely, of 1893, 1901, 1911, 1924, 1937, 1941, 1947,
1948, had their epicenters along or very near the fault zone (Rowlett and Kelleher,
1976). Thus seismicity gives evidence that the Philippine Fault is presently active, at
least in some parts. Additional evidence from geology, such as the sharpness of fault
scarps, disrupted soil horizons and stream offsets confirmed that the fault has been
active since Quaternary time (Lewis and Hayes, 1983). Certain surface deformations
near and along the fault have been associated with historical earthquakes such as
those of 1869, 1879, and 1893 (Allen, 1962).
In Central Luzon, the fault divides the mountainous Cordillera Central in the north
from the lowlands of the Central Valley Basin in the south.
Past episodes of intense activity along the fault have been placed in Late-Miocene
and Post-Pliocene (Rutland, 1968).
Zone 10 is another transcurrent fault, the Tablas Lineament that is traceable for
about 350 km from Western Panay northward through Tablas Island to the Tayabas
Isthmus (Phil. Bureau of Mines, 1981). Allen (1962) pointed out that it might be
conjugate to the Philippine Fault and thus, right-lateral.
Zone 11 is the third transcurrent fault, called the Mindanao Fault. It is traceable
for about 400 km. from the Davao Gulf northwestward to the Sindangan Valley of
Northern Zamboanga (Phil. Bureau of Mines, 1981; Gervacio, 1964). On its north-
west end there is a possibility it might be a high-angle thrust; but it is believed to be
more probably a transcurrent fault.
There is a fourth transcurrent fault, the Ulugan Fault in the Island of Palawan, but
it is considered inactive because its seismicity is practically nil.
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PHILIPPINES 39
5.3.9. Normal Faults (Zones 12 and 13). Zone 12 is a normal fault on the northeast
side of Mindoro. Zone 13 is the Cotabato Normal Fault on the southwest flank of
Mindanao. Another normal fault, the Marikina Fault located east of Manila, is not
included here because it is considered inactive.

5.3.10. Thrust Faults (Zones 14 to 16). Zone 14 is the Zambales Thrust Fault on the
western part of Luzon, that is, north of Manila Bay. Zone 15 is a thrust fault on the
southwest side of Mindoro. Zone 16 is a thrust fault on the western flank of Panay
Island.
The series of thrust faults along Zamboanga Peninsula are not included here
because they are considered to be inactive.

5.3.11. Transform Faults (Zones 17 and 18). Zone 17 is a transform fault at about
north latitude 15.5 degrees, linking the East Luzon Trench (Zone 1) with the Philip-
pine Trench (Zones 2 and 3) (Lewis and Hayes, 1983; Hamburger et al., 1983).
Confirmatory evidence consist of concentrated seismicity, sharp bathymetric low, and
focal mechanism solutions of two earthquakes (Seno and Kurita, 1978; Cardwell et
al., 1980).
Zone 18 is a transform fault running along the Verde island passage north of
Mindoro. Supposedly it links the Manila Trench and the Negros Trench. This
interpretation finds confirmation in the intense or concentrated seismicity north of
Mindoro (Wolfe and Self, 1983). Its sense of movement is believed to be left-lateral
(Lewis and Hayes, 1984).

6. Attenuation
To characterize the attenuation properties of the intervening region between the
source and the site, the attenuation coefficients of Su (1980) were adopted for the
entire Philippines, that is, without distinction of source zones. Valenzuela et al. (1985)
made an effort to derive attenuation coefficients for each of the Source Zones 1 to 8.
However, since their results were somewhat incomplete and tentative, they are not
incorporated in this study.

7. Hazard Evaluation at the Site

7.1. Theory
In accordance with the theory given by Algermissen et al. (1982), F(a) is defined as
the probability that the acceleration (A) will not exceed a certain level (a), given an
earthquake with magnitude (M) greater than a certain threshold M(minimum).
1 - F(a) is then the corresponding probability of exceedence and typically has the
shape of an exp ( - a) curve. If v is the annual rate of events with M > M(minimum),
then v(1 - F(a)) is the annual number of exceedence n, that is, annual number of
40 s.s. s u

INTENSITIES (g) AT .001 RISK

( RISK s ANNUAL PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE )

.20
05 !.1 i.o~

15

/0

T
i.os

~0
. , i I i i I | i * i

Fig. 8. Intensities (g) at 0.001 risk (risk = Annual Probability of Exceedence).

events with acceleration exceeding the level a. 1/n is then the return period, R(y), for
the acceleration level a. The quantity e x p [ - t v ( l - F(a))] or e x p [ - t / R ( y ) ] or
exp [ - tn] expresses a probability of nonexceedence for the exposure time t, and this
is called F(a, t). The quantity 1 - F(a, t) is the corresponding probability of exceed-
ence. The above reasoning assumes that the F(a)'s follow a Poisson distribution, that
is, they are independent of one another for sufficiently large a.
In the program, the expected annual number of exceedence n is first calculated from
the parameters of the magnitude-frequency relation which are statistically derived
SEISMIC HAZ/~.RD ANALYSIS FOR THE PHILIPPINES 41

INTENSITIES (g) AT .OOOI RISK

(RISK = ANNUAL PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE )

-20

-IO

-5

-O
120 12s t3o ]
I | I * ! I I * i i

Fig. 9. Intensities (g) at 0.0001 risk (risk = Annual Probability of Exceedence).

from recorded seismicity. This is calculated for different designated levels of acceleration
or intensity. In other words, for each acceleration level a, there is an n(a) which is the
expected number of events per year that exceed the specified acceleration. F r o m this,
the quantity 1 - exp ( - n ) , which is the annual probability of exceedence, is evaluated.
This is the same expression for 1 - F(a, t), shown above, with the exposure time
t = 1. Conversely, by pre-specifying different degrees of annual probability ofexceed-
ence, the corresponding expected acceleration or intensity may be evaluated by
interpolation.
42 S.S. SU
7.2. Results
Two hazard maps are shown in Figures 8 and 9. Figure 8 shows expected acceleration
contours (in % g) for annual probability of exceedence 0.001; Figure 9 for annual
probability of exceedence 0.0001. In accordance with the expression:
1 - F(a, t) = 1 - exp ( - n t ) which is the probability of exceedence in t years, the
acceleration values in the 0.001 map should reach a 5% probability of exceedence in
50 years; 10% probability in 100 years. The acceleration values in the 0.0001 map
should reach a 5% probability of exceedence in 500 years; 10% probability in 1000
years.
One can detect some similarity between the shape of the contours of Figures 8 and
9 and the shape of the boundaries of the source zones in Figures 6 and 7. This is
generally expected. Statistical uncertainty in the acceleration values in the hazard
maps (Figures 8 and 9) have been studied by those who use the Cornell method.
Acceptable values are plus or minus 20 to 25% of the contour values.

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Res. 85, 3239-3250.
Algermissen, S. T., Perkins, D. M., Thenhaus, P. C., Hanson, S. L., and Bender, B. L.: 1982, Probabilistic
estimates of maximum acceleration and velocity in rock in the contiguous United States, U.S. Geol.
Survey Open-file Report 82-1033.
Allen, C. R.: 1962, Circum-Pacific faulting in the Philippine-Taiwan region, J. Geophys. Res. 67, 4795~
4812.
Balce, G. R., Magpantay, A. L., and Zanoria, A. S.: 1979, Tectonic scenarios of the Philippines and
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Tectonics of Eastern Indonesia, Bandung, 9-14 July.
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1, pp. 1-36.
Christian, L. B.: 1964, Post-oligocene tectonic history of the Cagayan Basin, Philippines, Phil. Geologist
18, 114-147.
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