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Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET


Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in


Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 90 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 293.6
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 26,288

Key Financials - Trend


Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 17.6% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 29.9% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 26.4% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.6 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 10.9%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 168.3
Latest P/E (x) 13.5
Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming


evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel


u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an


upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it


knows?

Has the company been buying back its


shares?

Have retained earnings been invested


well?

Is the company’s return on equity above


average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to


inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.


Balance Sheet
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 133 133 133 266 266 266 285 285 285 293
Reserves 1,976 2,203 2,524 2,633 2,892 3,008 3,812 5,123 5,833 6,872
Borrowings 1,958 2,280 2,568 3,098 4,355 4,690 3,350 2,415 2,145 1,002
Other Liabilities 3,844 4,705 5,392 5,945 5,643 5,061 5,966 5,376 6,391 8,846
Total 7,911 9,321 10,617 11,942 13,157 13,025 13,412 13,198 14,654 17,014

Net Block 3,399 4,250 4,634 4,914 5,282 5,660 5,256 4,792 4,971 4,974
Capital Work in Progress 998 561 358 548 689 182 120 76 206 401
Investments 264 326 1,230 1,534 2,338 2,790 2,649 1,980 2,879 5,803
Other Assets 3,250 4,183 4,395 4,945 4,849 4,394 5,388 6,349 6,599 5,835
Total 7,911 9,321 10,617 11,942 13,157 13,025 13,412 13,198 14,654 17,014

Working Capital -594 -521 -997 -999 -795 -667 -578 974 207 -3,011
Debtors 958 1,022 1,165 1,231 1,419 1,299 1,243 1,251 1,064 980
Inventory 1,330 1,638 2,209 2,231 1,896 1,189 1,399 1,625 2,631 1,710
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 57 50 37 34 42 46 33 24 19 14
Inventory Turnover 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 12 8 15
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.6 4.0 4.1 5.3
Debt/Equity 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1
Return on Equity 9% 17% 23% 19% 13% 0% 8% 7% 19% 20%
Return on Capital Employed 9% 14% 19% 15% 11% 4% 11% 14% 17% 27%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 6,098 7,407 11,417 13,380 12,481 10,301 13,916 18,937 20,140 26,248 28,969
% Growth YOY 21% 54% 17% -7% -17% 35% 36% 6% 30%
Expenses 5,651 6,663 10,227 12,308 11,670 10,260 13,161 16,492 18,349 23,899 25,821
Material Cost (% of Sales) 73% 74% 73% 72% 71% 70% 72% 72% 73% 66% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 9% 7% 10% 13% 12% 10% 11% 11% 11%
Operating Profit 448 744 1,190 1,072 811 41 756 2,446 1,791 2,349 3,148
Operating Profit Margin 7% 10% 10% 8% 6% 0% 5% 13% 9% 9% 11%
Other Income 91 91 44 201 397 678 493 -888 143 443 128
Other Income as % of Sales 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 1.5% 3.2% 6.6% 3.5% -4.7% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Depreciation 178 204 267 353 381 377 416 488 518 555 598
Interest 160 102 189 255 377 453 394 248 155 131 71
Interest Coverage(Times) 2 6 5 4 2 1 2 4 9 17 38
Profit before tax (PBT) 200 530 778 665 450 -111 439 822 1,261 2,107 2,606
% Growth YOY 164% 47% -15% -32% -125% -495% 87% 53% 67%
PBT Margin 3% 7% 7% 5% 4% -1% 3% 4% 6% 8% 9%
Tax 18 121 171 124 37 -121 107 437 107 668 660
Net profit 182 408 607 541 413 10 331 385 1,154 1,439 1,946
% Growth YOY 125% 49% -11% -24% -98% 3343% 16% 200% 25%
Net Profit Margin 3% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 6% 5% 7%
EPS 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.0 1.6 0.0 1.2 1.4 4.1 4.9 6.6
% Growth YOY 125% 49% -11% -24% -98% 3119% 16% 200% 21%
Price to earning 15.0 18.2 12.2 15.1 14.3 648.3 61.8 79.8 20.8 30.9 13.5
Price 10 28 28 31 22 23 72 108 84 152 90
Dividend Payout 70.0% 47.1% 42.1% 47.0% 36.8% 0.0% 38.3% 69.4% 36.3% 45.5%
Market Cap 2,734 7,450 7,392 8,158 5,922 6,236 20,473 30,747 23,961 44,495
Retained Earnings 55 216 351 287 261 10 204 118 735 784
Buffett's $1 Test 13.8

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS


Sales Growth 17.6% 12.6% 16.0% 23.6%
PBT Growth 29.9% 15.3% 36.1% 68.7%
PBT Margin 4.7% 4.2% 4.1% 6.2%
Price to Earning 91.6 124.4 168.3 43.8

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
Cash Flow Statement
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) -526 1,090 591 1,147 728 556 1,777 1,683 2,155 5,418 14,621
% Growth YoY -307% -46% 94% -37% -24% 219% -5% 28% 151%
Cash from Investing Activity -664 -783 -918 -1,054 -1,165 -111 103 364 -1,477 -3,332 -9,037
Cash from Financing Activity 459 123 -14 -241 417 -449 -1,179 -1,211 -1,372 -1,961 -5,427
Net Cash Flow -731 430 -340 -148 -20 -3 700 836 -694 125 157
CFO/Sales -9% 15% 5% 9% 6% 5% 13% 9% 11% 21%
CFO/Net Profit -289% 267% 97% 212% 176% 5784% 536% 437% 187% 377%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -841 878 227 582 121 -381 621 45 917 4,594 6,765
Average FCF (3 Years) 1,852
FCF Growth YoY -205% -74% 156% -79% -414% -263% -93% 1938% 401%
FCF/Sales -14% 12% 2% 4% 1% -4% 4% 0% 5% 18%
FCF/Net Profit -442% 207% 36% 103% 28% -1295% 185% 12% 75% 294%

** Manually enter this number;


Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
Key Ratios
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 21.5% 54.1% 17.2% -6.7% -17.5% 35.1% 36.1% 6.4%
PBT Growth 164.4% 46.9% -14.5% -32.2% ### ### 87.4% 53.4%
Net Profit Growth 124.7% 48.7% -10.9% -23.6% -97.7% ### 16.3% 199.6%
Dividend Growth 50.0% 33.3% 0.0% -40.0% ### #DIV/0! 111.1% 64.2%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -307.4% -45.7% 94.0% -36.5% -23.6% 219.3% -5.3% 28.0%
Free Cash Flow Growth -204.5% -74.1% 156.2% -79.2% ### ### -92.8% ###

Operating Margin 7.3% 10.0% 10.4% 8.0% 6.5% 0.4% 5.4% 12.9% 8.9%
PBT Margin 3.3% 7.1% 6.8% 5.0% 3.6% -1.1% 3.2% 4.3% 6.3%
Net Margin 3.0% 5.5% 5.3% 4.0% 3.3% 0.1% 2.4% 2.0% 5.7%

Debtor Days 57.3 50.4 37.2 33.6 41.5 46.0 32.6 24.1 19.3
Inventory Turnover 4.6 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.6 8.7 10.0 11.7 7.7
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.6 4.0 4.1
Debt/Equity 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.4
Debt/Assets 24.8% 24.5% 24.2% 25.9% 33.1% 36.0% 25.0% 18.3% 14.6%
Interest Coverage (Times) 2.2 6.2 5.1 3.6 2.2 0.8 2.1 4.3 9.1
Return on Equity 8.6% 17.5% 22.9% 18.7% 13.1% 0.3% 8.1% 7.1% 18.9%
Return on Capital Employed 8.9% 13.7% 18.5% 15.3% 11.0% 4.3% 11.2% 13.7% 17.1%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -841 878 227 582 121 -381 621 45 917
Mar/18
30.3%
67.1%
24.7%
60.2%
151.5%
401.1%

9.0%
8.0%
5.5%

13.6
15.4
5.3
0.1
5.9%
17.1
20.1%
27.4%
4,594
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)


Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
14% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
30%
Check for a rising trend and
12%
25% Numbers > 20% long term a
10% has zero/marginal debt. Com
8% 20%
6% 15%
4% 10%
2%
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
0% Compare with a close competitor
-2%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin


Net Margin ROE

30,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
4000%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
3500% Compare grow
25,000
3000%
20,000 2500%
2000%
15,000 1500%
1000%
10,000
500%
5,000 0%
-500% Jan/10 Jan/12
- -1000%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

2,500 Profit Over Time Operating and


6,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
2,000 5,000 which are rising over tim
4,000
1,500 3,000
1,000 2,000
500 1,000
-
- -1,000 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
-500 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 -2,000

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo


Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 7% 10% 10% 8% 6% 0% 5% 13% 9%
PBT Margin 3% 7% 7% 5% 4% -1% 3% 4% 6%
Net Margin 3% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 6%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 9% 17% 23% 19% 13% 0% 8% 7% 19%
ROCE 9% 14% 19% 15% 11% 4% 11% 14% 17%

Revenue & Profit Growth


Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 21% 54% 17% -7% -17% 35% 36% 6% 30%
PBT Growth 164% 47% -15% -32% -125% -495% 87% 53% 67%
Net Profit Growth 125% 49% -11% -24% -98% 3343% 16% 200% 25%

Revenue & Profit


Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 6,098 7,407 11,417 13,380 12,481 10,301 13,916 18,937 20,140
PBT 200 530 778 665 450 -111 439 822 1,261
Net Profit 182 408 607 541 413 10 331 385 1,154

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow -526 1,090 591 1,147 728 556 1,777 1,683 2,155
Free Cash Flow -841 878 227 582 121 -381 621 45 917
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)


Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow


0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0
-
0 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow


Mar/18
9%
8%
5%

Mar/18
20%
27%

Mar/18
26,248
2,107
1,439

Mar/18
5,418
4,594
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 73% 74% 73% 72% 71% 70% 72% 72% 73% 66%
Change in Inventory 0% 3% 1% 1% -2% -4% 0% 2% 4% -5%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Employee Cost 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 9% 7% 10% 13% 12% 10% 11% 11% 11%
Other Expenses 0% 0% 0% 2% -4% 1% 3% -2% 1% 0%
Operating Profit 7% 3% 8% 6% 11% 9% 5% 8% 1% 19%
Other Income 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% 7% 4% -5% 1% 2%
Depreciation 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Interest 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 3% 7% 7% 5% 4% -1% 3% 4% 7% 8%
Tax 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% -1% 1% 2% 1% 3%
Net Profit 3% 6% 6% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 6% 6%
Dividend Amount 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3%

Common Size Balance Sheet


Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Reserves 25% 24% 24% 22% 22% 23% 28% 39% 40% 40%
Borrowings 25% 24% 24% 26% 33% 36% 25% 18% 15% 6%
Other Liabilities 49% 50% 51% 50% 43% 39% 44% 41% 44% 52%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 43% 46% 44% 41% 40% 43% 39% 36% 34% 29%
Capital Work in Progress 13% 6% 3% 5% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Investments 3% 3% 12% 13% 18% 21% 20% 15% 20% 34%
Other Assets 41% 45% 41% 41% 37% 34% 40% 48% 45% 34%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 9% 7% 6%
Inventory 17% 18% 21% 19% 14% 9% 10% 12% 18% 10%
Cash & Bank 1% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 6% 12% 6% 6%
A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD ASHOK LEYLAND LTD


Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 2,130 1,902 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 2,449 1,953 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 2,817 2,005 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 3,098 1,969 4 FY21
5 FY22 3,408 1,934 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 3,749 1,899 Sales 16% 6 FY23
7 FY24 3,936 1,781 PBT 36% 7 FY24
8 FY25 4,133 1,669 FCF 107% 8 FY25
9 FY26 4,340 1,565 9 FY26
10 FY27 4,557 1,467 10 FY27
10 45,569 14,672 10
Intrinsic Value 38,644 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 26,288 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -32% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD


Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
2,222 1,984 Year 4-6 15%
2,667 2,126 Year 7-10 10%
3,200 2,278 Discount Rate 12%
3,680 2,339
4,232 2,402
4,867 2,466
5,354 2,422
5,889 2,379
6,478 2,336
7,126 2,294
106,890 34,416
Intrinsic Value 63,269
Current Mkt. Cap. 26,288
Premium/(Discount) to IV -58%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the


al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name ASHOK LEYLAND LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 663.7 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 14.2 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 24,437 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 26,288 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y


Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations


m Formula (High Range)
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Mar/18

663.7
8.5
28.3

43,233
26,288

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 1,852 42,159


26,288
Years 1-5 6-10 160%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,826)

Year FCF Growth Present Value


1 2,130 15% 1,902
2 2,449 15% 1,953
3 2,817 15% 2,005
4 3,239 15% 2,059
5 3,725 15% 2,114
6 4,172 12% 2,114
7 4,673 12% 2,114
8 5,233 12% 2,114
9 5,861 12% 2,114
10 6,565 12% 2,114

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 6,696
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 20,599
Terminal Value 21,559
Total PV of Cash Flows 42,159
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 26,288

Note: See explanation of DCF here


Valuation
TD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)


Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
Expected Returns Model
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 190 424 631 566 434 29 335
Net Profit Margin 3% 6% 6% 4% 3% 0% 2%
Return on Equity 9% 17% 23% 19% 13% 0% 8%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)


Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 4,853
Current P/E (x) 16.8
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 97,063
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 31,252
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 26,288

Note: See explanation of this model here


el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
390 1,223 1,563 26% 29%
2% 6% 6%
7% 19% 20%
Intrinsic Value Range
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho 38,644 63,269 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 24,437 43,233 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF 42,159 understand this business?
Expected Return 31,252
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 26,288 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-


are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the


vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 4,622 4,516 6,654 4,258 6,076 7,191 8,772 6,250 7,621 6,325
% Growth YOY 31% 59% 32% 47% 25% -12%
Expenses 4,086 4,126 5,924 3,954 5,467 6,619 7,740 5,612 6,792 5,677
Operating Profit 536 390 730 303 609 572 1,032 638 829 649
Other Income 38 26 -288 26 56 304 64 39 10 15
Depreciation 126 131 139 132 141 146 146 143 148 161
Interest 34 45 42 37 41 37 20 12 20 19
Profit before tax 415 240 261 160 483 693 930 522 671 484
PBT Margin 9% 5% 4% 4% 8% 10% 11% 8% 9% 8%
% Growth YOY 16% 189% 257% 225% 39% -30%
Tax 120 78 -216 49 148 208 263 152 143 103
Net profit 294 162 476 111 334 485 667 370 528 381
% Growth YOY 14% 200% 40% 233% 58% -21%
OPM 12% 9% 11% 7% 10% 8% 12% 10% 11% 10%
COMPANY NAME ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 293.55
Face Value 1
Current Price 89.55
Market Capitalization 26287.65

PROFIT & LOSS


Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 6098.42 7407.23 11416.88 13379.93 12481.2 10300.89
Raw Material Cost 4481.08 5463.49 8340.15 9631.11 8851.16 7179.1
Change in Inventory 1.04 251.85 165.22 167.01 -271.98 -423.87
Power and Fuel 38.42 44.47 65.18 77.67 86 61.04
Other Mfr. Exp 93.49 90.35 169.72 198.6 213.07 174.5
Employee Cost 563.08 667.26 969.86 1036.19 1086.74 1051.06
Selling and admin 485.08 642.58 846.95 1274 1623.6 1229.7
Other Expenses -9.44 6.62 0.6 256.94 -462.61 140.82
Other Income 91.23 91.17 44.45 200.51 396.9 678.18
Depreciation 178.41 204.11 267.43 352.81 380.78 377.04
Interest 160.32 101.85 188.92 255.25 376.89 452.92
Profit before tax 208.45 544.77 801.8 689.98 470.71 -91.22
Tax 18.45 121.1 170.5 124 37 -120.6
Net profit 190 423.67 631.3 565.98 433.71 29.38
Dividend Amount 133.03 199.54 266.06 266.07 159.64

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 4622.41 4516.29 6653.74 4257.86 6076.38 7190.66
Expenses 4085.92 4125.88 5923.84 3954.46 5467.23 6619.04
Other Income 38.18 25.78 -287.62 25.84 55.66 303.9
Depreciation 126.11 131.34 139.48 132.13 141.14 145.95
Interest 33.92 45.33 42.3 36.63 41.02 36.78
Profit before tax 414.64 239.52 260.5 160.48 482.65 692.79
Tax 120.23 77.8 -215.66 49.24 148.4 207.93
Net profit 294.41 161.72 476.17 111.24 334.26 484.86
Operating Profit 536.49 390.41 729.9 303.4 609.15 571.62

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 133.03 133.03 133.03 266.07 266.07 266.07
Reserves 1976.01 2202.55 2523.65 2632.9 2892.39 3007.89
Borrowings 1958.14 2280.44 2568.27 3097.89 4355.43 4690.32
Other Liabilities 3844.08 4704.54 5391.8 5944.79 5643.18 5061.11
Total 7911.26 9320.56 10616.75 11941.65 13157.07 13025.39
Net Block 3399.12 4249.56 4633.79 4913.5 5281.88 5659.87
Capital Work in Progress 998.29 561.47 357.97 548.22 688.93 181.53
Investments 263.56 326.15 1230 1534.48 2337.63 2789.69
Other Assets 3250.29 4183.38 4394.99 4945.45 4848.63 4394.3
Total 7911.26 9320.56 10616.75 11941.65 13157.07 13025.39
Receivables 957.97 1022.06 1164.5 1230.76 1419.41 1299.01
Inventory 1330.02 1638.24 2208.9 2230.62 1896.02 1188.7
Cash & Bank 88.08 518.92 179.53 32.56 13.94 11.69
No. of Equity Shares 1330542992 1.331E+09 1.331E+09 2.661E+09 2.661E+09 2.661E+09
New Bonus Shares 1.33E+09
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity -525.58 1090.06 591.38 1147.31 728.3 556.43
Cash from Investing Activity -664.18 -783.17 -917.73 -1054.1 -1164.93 -110.54
Cash from Financing Activity 459.18 123.31 -13.63 -241.12 416.98 -448.64
Net Cash Flow -730.58 430.2 -339.98 -147.91 -19.65 -2.75

PRICE: 10.276111 27.998571 27.781579 30.66 22.2575 23.436842

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 266.09 266.09 266.09 266.09 266.09 266.09
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


13916.46 18937.3 20140.14 26247.91
10017.82 13623.88 14732.19 17342.76
52.61 429.02 758.8 -1278.52
82.49 115.96 168.73 228.74
192.52 242.46 292.15 345.71
1186.03 1386.09 1503.29 1840.89
1327.36 1998.35 2243.89 2789.98
407.01 -446.16 167.71 72.09
492.58 -888.11 143.29 443.34
416.34 487.9 517.89 554.61
393.51 247.64 155.38 131.25
442.19 826.54 1330.09 2230.71
107.39 436.94 107.01 668.12
334.81 389.6 1223.08 1562.59
128.07 270.36 443.96 711.29

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18


8772.49 6250.12 7621.06 6325.24
7740.49 5612.24 6792.03 5676.55
64.31 38.72 10.29 14.71
146.3 143.05 148.11 160.66
20.06 11.59 20.41 19.17
929.95 521.96 670.8 483.57
262.57 151.86 143.06 102.73
667.38 370.1 527.74 380.84
1032 637.88 829.03 648.69

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


284.59 284.59 284.59 292.71
3812.3 5122.56 5833.41 6872.09
3349.72 2414.98 2144.85 1002.32
5965.68 5375.51 6391.36 8846.42
13412.29 13197.64 14654.21 17013.54
5255.55 4791.99 4970.81 4974.22
120.14 75.86 205.86 401.24
2648.83 1980.44 2878.86 5802.63
5387.77 6349.35 6598.68 5835.45
13412.29 13197.64 14654.21 17013.54
1242.67 1250.95 1064.39 980.48
1398.53 1625.01 2631.03 1709.88
751.29 1593.13 911.97 1004.4
2.846E+09 2846081309 2846081309 2927104101

1 1 1 1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


1776.7 1682.98 2154.77 5418.35
102.79 364.18 -1477.04 -3331.9
-1179.17 -1210.67 -1371.85 -1961.34
700.33 836.48 -694.12 125.11

71.935 108.034211 84.189474 152.011905

284.61 284.61 284.61 292.71


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