Statistics Sampling Issues

Prelims Random sampling: every member of a

population has an equal chance of being
I. Research and Concepts selected into a sample.
Statistic – a fact or piece of data from a Representative sampling: selecting cases
study of large numerical data. so that they will match the larger population
Index – an indicator, sign or measure of on specific characteristics
something. Convenience Sampling: selects participants
Why study statistics? on the basis of proximity, ease-of-access,
and willingness to participate.
1. It helps us process data/information;
data being the raw material of II. Variables and Scales of
knowledge; and. Measurement
2. To learn things and inform our lives Variables and Constants
Statistics – is the study of how best to A variable is pretty much anything that can
collect, analyze, and draw conclusions from be codified and has more than a single
data. value.
The Scientific Method: For example: sex, age, height, attitudes
1. Ask a question or Address a problem about school, score on a test.
2. Research A constant, in contrast, has only a single
3. Hypothesis score
4. Experiment
5. Analysis Quantitative and Qualitative Variables
6. Conclusion
A quantitative (continuous/discrete)
Social Science Research and variable is one that is scored in such a way
Terminologies that the numbers, or values, indicate some
sort of amount.
A population (N) is an individual or group
that represents all the members of a certain E.g.: Height, Age, Number of
group or category of interest. Children, Year Level

A value generated from, or applied to, a
population is called a parameter.
A sample (n) is a subset drawn from larger
population.
A value generated from, or applied to, a
sample is called a statistic.
Qualitative variables are those for which
the assigned values do not indicate more or
less of a certain quality.
E.g.: Class, Sex (dichotomous),
Ethnicity, Religion, Year Level
Scales of Measurement

Descriptive and Inferential Statistics Qualitative Scales:

Descriptive statistics apply only to the 1. Nominal: Categories or labels.

members of a sample or population from
which data have been collected. E.g., Sex (male/female), civil status
(single/married/divorced), Jersey #
It exists to describe and simplify information.
1. Ordinal: Categories or labels
Inferential statistics: using sample data to indicating rank or “order” (hence,
infer/conclude about the characteristics of ordinal), but no meaningful distance
the larger population. between scores. Order matters,
distance does not.
It bridges the known (sample) to the
unknown (population). E.g., Eldest/Middle/Youngest,
1st/2nd/3rd, Champion/Runner-up/Last

Quantitative Scales:

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Interval and Ratio Measures.
Note: Continuous - infinite numbers
between measures.
Discrete - absolute values without values
in between.
Interval Variables
Numbers have order (like ordinal), PLUS
clear, equal, and meaningful intervals
between values.
E.g., Grade; the difference between 100
and 99 (1 interval between 2 values) is the
same as difference between 82 and 81 (1
interval between 2 values).
Rating scales (1-5); 1-Strongly Disagree,
2-Disagree, 3-Neutral, 4-Agree, 5-Strongly
Agree
Ratio Variables
Like interval (numerical and with clear,
equal, and meaningful intervals), PLUS
ratios are meaningful (twice as much) and
has a true zero point (zero means absence of
what you are measuring).
E.g., Weight; 10 lbs. Is twice as much as 5
lbs. (ratio); 0 lbs. Means no weight or
absence of weight (true, meaningful 0 point).
No. of Children; 4 children is twice as much
as 2 children (ratio); 0 children means
absence of children (true zero point).
Comparing Scales
Ordinal vs. Interval
Interval: Grade; a one (1) point difference
is the same at all points in the scale.
Ordinal: Place in race; 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
Difference between 1st and 2nd places may
not be as close/far as difference between 3rd
and 4th places.
III. Measures of Central Tendency
Distribution – any collection of scores on a
variable
Mean, Median, and Mode
Mean = Average; central point in a set of
data; balance point.
Median = “Middle value”; cuts distribution
into upper and lower halves.
2
Mode = Most frequent value; “Peak(s)” of
the distribution
Ordinal data has a median and mode only*,
and nominal data has only a mode.
* -- a consensus has not been reached
among statisticians about whether the mean
can be used with ordinal data.
Strengths and Weaknesses
The HOUSE OF MEAN
Hero (Central Measure): Mean
Sidekicks (Variability Measures):
Standard Deviation and Variance
Strength: Precise/Exact
Weakness: Prone to being influenced by
outliers (not Robust)
The HOUSE OF MEDIAN
Hero (Central Measure): Median
Sidekicks (Variability Measures):
Minimum, Maximum, Inter-quartile Range
Strength: Not influenced by outliers
(Robust)
Weakness: Not as precise/exact as the
mean.
Outliers - Data that is very much bigger
or smaller than the next nearest data
point.
IV. Measures of Variability
Range
Difference between largest and smallest
values in a distribution.
Range = Max - Min
Range defines the broadness
of the base of a distribution
Variance
The variance measures how far each number
in the set is from the mean.
Standard Deviation
Standard = average; Deviation = distance of
values from the mean
Standard deviation is the average distance of
values from the mean.
 V. Mean, Median, and Outliers In a normal distribution...

5 Number Summary 1. Mean = median = mode

1. Median 2. Symmetry about the center
2. Minimum

3. Maximum 50% of values less than the mean and 50%

greater than the mean
4. Inter-quartile Range - Divides the
distribution into 4 equal quarters The Standard Deviation defines the Spread

IQR = Q3 - Q1 where: - 68% of values are within

1 standard deviation of the mean
Q1 - Median of Lower Half
(25% of the data is below q1) - 95% of values are within
2 standard deviations of the mean
Q3 - Median of Upper Half (75% of
the data is below q3) - 99.7% of values are within
3 standard deviations of the mean
Boxplots
- A.k.a.
Boxplots are standardized graphical
representation of the 5 number summary - The empirical rule,

Median vs. Mean - The three-sigma rule, or

1. We still want the mean because of - The 68-95-99.7 rule

its exactness (for n) and precision (to
the mean of N); and Normal Distributions and your world

2. The median helps us track and trim 1. It is the most common

outliers. distribution in nature (as
distributions go)
VI. The Normal Distribution
- Normal distributions are also called
The normal distribution refers to a family “natural distributions”
of continuous probability distributions
described by the normal equation. - Height, weight, intelligence, etc.

The value of the random variable Y is: 1. Statistical relationships become

clear if one assumes the normal
distribution.
The normal curve is a mere representation of
probabilities. - Does IQ lead to success?

Normal Distribution (Bell Curve; Gaussian - Will material things lead you to more
Distribution) happiness?

All normal distributions are symmetric and - Is studying important to career

have bell-shaped density curves with a growth?
single peak (Unimodal).
VII. Normal Distribution Concepts
Two specific measures:
The distribution curve is just a model that
1. The MEAN (center and peak of seeks to reflect reality.
density)
Describing Distributions: Skewness and
2. The STANDARD DEVIATION Kurtosis
(spread or girth of the bell curve).
Skewness
The Mean and Standard Deviation
Skew: Degree of deviation from the
The Mean Defines the Center normal in terms of asymmetrical
extension of the tails.

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Normal distributions have a skew of 0.

Kurtosis

The shape of a distribution of scores in terms

of its flatness or peakedness.

Normal distributions have a standard kurtosis

of 3.

Platykurtic=flat; k<3

Leptokurtic=thin; k>3

Locating Values via Standardization:

Percentiles and Z-scores

Standardization: The process of converting

a raw score into a standard score.

Raw scores: Individual observed scores on

measured variables.

Percentile (%ile): % scores below a

certain value in the distribution.

Standard score (z-score): A raw score that

has been converted to a z score.

VIII. Central Limit Theorem

1. Theorems are found in math.

2. They are statements that have been

proved using proved statements
(theorems).

3. Unlike theories, theorems are

deductive.

The CLT (in simple terms)

1) Sample means will be distributed

roughly as a normal distribution
around the population mean.

All of this will be true no matter what the

distribution of the underlying population
looks like.

1) The distribution of means will

approach a normal shape faster if...

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 a) The population from which
the sample it is taken
from is a normal
distribution; OR
b) The sample size (n) is
relatively large (30 or
more).
Making Inferences
If we have detailed information about some
population…
Then we can make powerful inferences
about any properly drawn sample from
that population.
If we have detailed information about a
properly drawn sample (mean and standard
deviation)...
We can make strikingly accurate
inferences about the population from
which that sample was drawn.
If we have data describing a particular
sample, and data on a particular population…
We can infer whether or not that sample
is consistent with a sample that is likely
to be drawn from that population.
Last, if we know the underlying
characteristics of two samples…
We can infer whether or not both
samples were likely drawn from the
same population.
Midterms
IX. Inferential Statistics
1. Samples allow you to make good
inferences about the sample itself;
and
2. Samples allow you to make good
inferences about the population as a
whole.
#1 is called internal validity (the state of
being factual or logically sound).
#2 is called external validity.
Inferential statistics are techniques that allow
us to use samples in making
generalizations about the populations
from which the samples were drawn.
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The Standard Error
The standard error is the standard deviation
of sample means. It is a measure of how
representative sample is likely to be of the
population.
Interpreting Standard Errors
Large standard errors (relative to the sample
mean): high variability between the
means of different samples…
Some samples might not actually represent
the population.
Small standard errors: most sample means
are similar to the population mean…
Our samples are likely to be accurate
reflections of the population.
Confidence Intervals
A confidence interval for the mean is a range
of scores where the population mean will fall
within this range in 95% of samples.
In 100 samples, the confidence intervals of
95 samples would contain the true value of
the mean in the population.
X. Hypothesis
Definition: A hypothesis is an educated
guess that can be tested.
An educated guess is a
guess that is based on theories.
That can be tested means that it is not a
truism (e.g., I hypothesize that the sun will
shine and set tomorrow).
Two Types
1. Alternative Hypotheses (H1)
denote the presence of an effect.
A.k.a Experimental Hypothesis if the
methodology is experimental.
2. The Null Hypotheses (H0) denote the
absence of an effect.
The null hypotheses was
made to be rejected. =(
We need H0 because we cannot prove the
alternative hypothesis using statistics... But
we can reject the null hypothesis.
If our data give us confidence to reject the
null hypothesis then this provides support
(not proof) for our alternative/experimental
hypothesis.
Science is not above proving an effect
(accepting H1), but disproving the absence of
an effect (rejecting H0).
Directional and Non-Directional
Hypotheses
Directional hypotheses state that an effect
will occur, but it also states the direction
of the effect.
“Students will know more about research
methods after taking EDP 211.”
A non-directional hypothesis states that an
effect will occur, but it doesn’t state the
direction of the effect.
“Students knowledge of research
methods will change after EDP 211.”
Hypothesis Testing
Steps in Hypothesis Testing
1. Determine H0 and H1;
2. Collect Data and Calculate Test
Statistic;
3. Check the p-value to determine if
the effect just happened by chance;
and
4. Given the p-value, make decision:
a. If effect is likely to have
happened by chance, do not
reject H0; OR
b. If effect is unlikely to have
happened by chance, reject
H0.
P-Value
Developed by Ronald Fisher, the p-value is
the probability that an effect happened
by chance (false alarm).
The probability that the value observed (or a
more extreme one) happened by chance if
the Null Hypothesis was true.
P-values and Directionality
One-tailed and Two-tailed Test
One-tailed tests are statistical tests that look
out for an effect on one tail of the distribution
(directional).
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P-value significance level for one-tailed
test: 0.05
Two-tailed tests are statistical tests that look
out for an effect on both tails of the
distribution (non-directional).
P-value significance level for two-test:
0.025
Decision Errors: Type I and Type II
Reality 1: There is, in reality, an effect in the
population; or
Reality 2: There is, in reality, no effect in the
population.
Statistics will NOT tell us which reality is
TRUE. But statistics can show us the
probability of which reality is MORE LIKELY
(and whether the effect is strong or not).
One of the four things can happen.
1. You can say it ain’t (null) and it don’t
(no effect in reality)
2. You can say it be (alternative) and it
do (effect is present in reality)
3. You can say it ain’t (null) and it do
(effect is present in reality)
4. You can say it be (alternative) and it
don’t (no effect in reality)
#3 and #4 are “false alarms”. False
alarms are allowable based on a p-value
Type I and Type II Errors
False Alarms:
1. You can say it ain’t (null) and it do
(effect is present in reality)
#1 is called Type II error: When we
believe that there is no effect in the
population when, in reality, there is (denial).
1. You can say it be (alternative) and it
don’t (no effect in reality)
#2 is called Type I error: When we believe
that there is a genuine effect in our
population, when in fact there isn’t
(assumption).
Sampling issues and other statistical
mistakes lead you to wrong generalizations
(Type I or Type II Errors).
EFFECT SIZE
p values are never enough...
“Just because a test statistic is significant
doesn’t mean that the effect it measures is
meaningful or important.”
An effect size is a standardized measure (0
to 1) of the magnitude of observed effect in a
sample.
Statistical Power
Statistical power is the measure of a
statistical test’s ability to find effects in a
population (assuming that the effect is
present).
Low statistical power will under-
report significance and effect size.
High statistical power will correctly
report significance and effect size.
0.8 Statistical Power is generally
acceptable.
Two Uses
Statistical Power help us…
1. See how powerful your test
statistics are; and
2. If you have a desired effect size,
calculate the sample size
necessary to achieve a given
level of power of a test (using
softwares such as G*Power or Tables
by Cohen).
XI. Correlation
Correlation: When is a relationship really a
“relationship”?
The logic of statistical correlations
Suppose X and Y are two correlated
variables…
Changes in X causes Y to change...
AND
Changes in Y causes X to change.
“Covariance”: comparing how variables are
in sync when they change.
Correlation: How do we describe
relationships?
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Two fundamental characteristics:
1. Direction
Positive (+) Correlations:
variables move in the same direction.
Negative (-) Correlations:
variables move in opposite directions.
2. Magnitude
Strength of correlations range from
weak to perfect.
A perfect correlation indicates that the
correlation is taking place in EVERY
member of the sample or population.
A weak correlation indicates that the
correlation is taking place in a “FEW”
members of the sample or population.
Measures of Correlation
The Correlation Coefficient (r)
The correlation coefficient (r) is a
standardized measure of how much variables
are in sync when they change (covariance).
In short: r is a standardized measure of
covariance.
The r can be anywhere between -1.00 to
+1.00
R denotes direction.
A positive (+) r means that the direction
of the correlation is positive:
Both variables covary in the same direction.
A negative (-) r means that the direction
of the correlation is negative:
Both variables covary in opposite directions.
The p-value in correlations.
The p value is the probability that the
correlation/covariance happened by chance
(random or accidental) if the null hypothesis
was true.
If P > 0.05, the correlation is not
significant (effect may have happened
by chance).
If P <=0.05, the correlation is
significant (effect did not happen by
chance).
Reporting Correlations
“There was a significant correlation
between <Variable x> and <Variable Y>, r
= ____, p (one/two-tailed) = _____.”
The direction and strength of the correlation
is then explained and analyzed in the
discussion of research results.
“There was no significant correlation
between <Variable X> and <Variable Y>, r
= ___, p (one/two-tailed) = ____.”
Parametric and Non-Parametric Tests
for Correlation
Chi-Square Test of Independence
H0 = Variables are independent of each
other (no correlation).
Example research questions that use the Chi-
Square:
1. Medicine - Are children more likely
to get infected with virus A than
adults?
2. Psychology - Are males likely to do
better in exams than females?
Spearman Ranks (Rho)
Kendall’s Tau is used if there are many tied
ranks.
Example research questions that use the
Spearman Rho:
1. Sociology - Do people with a higher
level of education have a stronger
opinion of whether or not tax reforms
are needed?
2. Psychology - Does one’s general
cognitive ability correlate to success
in college?
Point Biserial Correlation
Point biserial correlations are used to
correlate a BINARY (two values) nominal
variable and a scale variable.
Example research questions that use the
Point Biserial Correlation:
1. Sociology - Are males more likely to
earn than females?
2. Social psychology - Is satisfaction
with life higher the older (elderly vs.
not elderly) you are?
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Pearson Correlation
Example research questions that use the
Pearson Correlation:
1. Medicine - Will increased water
intake significantly bring down a
fever?
2. Psychology - Will performance in a
previous reading test affect the next
reading test?
Partial Correlations and the “Third
Variable Problem”
Spurious correlations: two effects that can
be statistically linked by correlation despite
having no clear causal relationship.
E.g.: Do storks bring babies? Statistics have
shown that increased number in storks are
related to increased number of births.
Spurious correlations are caused by a “third
variable”, and partial correlations control
these third variables.
XII. Regression: The Power to
Predict
A correlation in statistics becomes a
causation when there is a theory that
accurately describes a link between the
two.
Independent and Dependent Variables
A variable that we think is a cause is
known as an independent variable
(because its value does not depend on any
other variables).
A variable that we think is an effect is
called a dependent variable because the
value of this variable depends on the cause
(independent variable).
Cause and Effect; IV -> DV
In experimental psych, we manipulate the IV
(cause) to trigger a change in the DV (effect)
Predictions
Regression Analysis
Regression analysis is a way of…
Predicting an outcome variable from one
predictor variable (simple regression),
Or several predictor variables (multiple
regression).
Logistic Regression
Logistic regression is multiple regression
but…
... with an outcome variable that is a
categorical variable, and
... predictor variables that are
continuous or categorical.
Binary and Multinomial (Polychotomous)
Binary Logistic Regression: When we are
trying to predict membership of only two
categorical outcomes,
Multinomial Logistic Regression: When
we want to predict membership of more than
two categories.
Interpreting Regression Analysis
R, R-Squared (R2), and goodness-of-fit
R-squared is a statistical measure of how
close the data are to the fitted regression
line.
A.k.a. coefficient of determination, or the
coefficient of multiple determination (for
multiple regression).
R-squared is always between 0% to 100%.
100% indicates that the model explains all
the variability of the response data around its
mean.
R (correlation coefficient) is the square
root of R2.
Methods in Regression
Regression Methods
1. Forced Entry - All variables are
entered simultaneously.
2. Hierarchical - Variables are entered
one-by-one in order of importance.
3. Stepwise Method - Order of predictors
are decided upon by a computer, depending
on the t-statistic.
Forward stepwise means strongest predictors
are chosen first, and backward stepwise
means weakest predictors are chosen first.
Logistic Regression
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In logistic regression, only forced entry
and stepwise methods are used.
Prefinals
XIII. Comparing Two Means
Differences
In experimental research, we try to
manipulate what happens to people so
that we can make causal inferences.
1. Manipulation of a variable (IV)
2. Measuring effect (DV)
3. Looking at differences between
groups to see if the effect was
significant (or not) across the groups
studied.
E.g. Diet pills.
Groups: Control and Experimental
1. Control Group - the control group
does not receive treatment or
intervention.
2. Experimental Group - the
experimental group(s) receive
treatment or intervention.
Designing Tests of Difference
1. We can either expose different
people to different experimental
manipulations (between-group or
independent design)...
2. or take a single group of people
and expose them to different
experimental manipulations at
different points in time (repeated-
measures design).
Between-Group or Independent Design
Pre-test Post-test Design
Control:
Pretest > Post-test (OO)
Experimental: Pretest > Treatment
> Post-test (OXO)
Post-test only Design
Control: Post-test (O)
Experimental: Treatment > Post-test (XO)
Repeated Measures Design
One group with two or more treatments
Experimental Group:
Pretest (optional) > Treatment > Post-test >
Treatment > Post-Test
Repeated measures designs are relatively
more powerful than independent designs.
Independent Samples (Between Groups)
T-Test
Conditions:
1. Scales: Interval/Ratio
2. Distribution: Normal
3. Equality of Variance: Not equal
4. Two different groups/samples
Interpreting Independent Samples
(Between Groups) T-Test
LEVENE’S TEST
F - ratio of variance (variance1/variance2)
Generally, an F-value far greater than 1
means that the difference between the two
groups are great.
T-test for Equality of Means
T-statistic - ratio of the means (mean group
1/mean group 2)
- T = 1 means no difference (null
hypothesis)
- A t-stat far greater than one means
one group’s mean is significantly
greater/lower than the other group’s
mean
Sig. - significance between the ratio of
means.
- Is the difference between the means
of the groups happening by chance?
Repeated Measures (One-sample or
Dependent Samples) T-test
Conditions:
1. Scales: Interval/Ratio
2. Distribution: Normal
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3. Equality of Variance: Not equal
4. One sample, repeated measures
XIV. Comparing Several Means
If we have one control group and two
experimental groups to study, how many t-
tests do we need to compare the means?
ANOVA still compares means, but why does it
“analyze” variances?
The Idea Behind Analysis of Variance
Variance:
- At the sample level: The square of
the average distance of the data
points from the mean (square of the
standard deviation)
- At the population level: the
squared distance of the average
distance of all samples from the
population mean.
Simply put: Analysis of variance is the
analysis of how far samples are from the
population mean.
Recap: Central Limit Theorem
CLT: Population characteristics (central
tendency and variability) are generally
reflected by its samples.
Example: DNA Testing & the (little) variance
we share in the genome. (Biology)
Membership of a certain
culture. (Social Sciences)
Writing ANOVA Hypotheses
H0: There is no significant difference
between groups/measures.
x1 = x2 = x3
H1: There is a significant difference between
the groups/measures.
- Three possible scenarios
One Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Analysis of the variation within each group,
v.s. the amount of variation between
each group.
- If there's a lot of variation within
each group and only a little bit of
variation between each group, then
it's harder to say that the result is
 "significant" -- it might be due to
chance alone.

Example: Height of students from Manresa,

La Storta, and Loyola.

Repeated Measures ANOVA

Analysis of the variation within measure,

v.s. the amount of variation between
each measure.

- If there's little variation within each

measure and a lot of variation
between each measure, then it's
easier to say that the result is
"significant" -- it might NOT be due
to chance alone.

Example: Prelim, Midterms, and Prefinals

Exams.

ANOVA: Analysis of Variance is a variability

Ratio

Variance between/variance within

LARGE/SMALL = reject h0 = at least one

mean is an outlier and each distribution is
narrow; distinct from each other

SIMILAR/SIMILAR =fail to reject h0 = means

are fairly close to overall mean and/or
distributions overlap a bit; hard to
distinguish.

SMALL/LARGE = fail to reject h0 = the

means are very close to overall mean and/or
distributions “melt” together

Some additional points:

1. ANOVA proceeds with the

condition that the variances are
equal. Generally, the variances will
equalize given a good sample size
and representativeness.

2. We can still do ANOVA for two

samples/measures. But t-tests will
generally be enough.

3. ANOVA is an omnibus test. It can

only say if there is a significant
difference between the
groups/measures, but now HOW the
groups/measures are different.

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