Occupiers activity is substantially below levels of the last Investment volume year-to-date surged to above €3.3 bn,
years. Large size transactions are however expected to be already more than the full year 2014 due to mega shopping
closed in the near term. center deals.
Vacancy falls further to 9.6% and will trend to 9% in the Prime yields compress for every type of asset.
short term.
HOT IN BRUSSELS: New public transport lines could
Prime rents unchanged so far at €275 / sq.m. / year, but reboot the office market
small size transactions were closed above that level.
At a glance
226,000 sq.m. taken-up in 9M 2015, 27% lower than a year ago.
Large size deals expected in Q4 may reboot the occupier market.
(*) Investment volume includes investment, owner occupier and redevelopment acquisitions; excludes land sales. Data as of 30/09/2015.
(**) Under construction and projects with permit. Projects with no permit, except if prelet, on 30/09/2015 excluded.
Letting Market
Large size deals expected
TAKE-UP BY BUSINESS SECTOR (SQM)
Q3 is traditionally the quietest quarter of the year Corporates dominate letting activity in H1 2015
due to the holiday period, 2015 is no exception
however two transactions above 10,000 sq.m.
100%
were closed: KPMG prelet 13,000 sq.m. in Codic’s 90%
Passport project on Brussels Airport, next to 80%
As of today, the market is still waiting for Belgian Adm EU International Adm Corporates
which are focused on CBD. Eur District Louise North Pentagon South Decentralised Periphery
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 15
be closed in Q4, as well as the rumoured large
size deal by the Federal Administration of Internal Total BXL Market CBD Outside CBD
Affairs, vacancy would fall below 5% for the first
time since 2002.
300
For now there is limited movement on the
250
speculative development activity side, and
building permits are difficult to obtain not only 200
There is a pipeline of more than 250,000 sq.m. in Pent South North Eur Louise Dece Peri
the North district – mainly towers – but none will
be started at risk.
Hot in Brussels
Brussels is the second most congested city in Europe, after London, with 74 hours lost by employees in traffic
per year. The fact that a company car is often considered as a normal reward to employees can partly explain
the wide use of car to go to work, but the underinvestment in public transports is also a factor. Accessibility and
mobility are important criteria of occupiers in their choice of new premises, and are good reasons for tenants to
move to more accessible locations inside or outside Brussels. Areas with weak connections to efficient public
transport and congested road connections tend to show high structural vacancy and some have been converted to
residential as a result. The ongoing projects of new metro, train and tram lines bring solutions. JLL summarises
the main initiatives with completion dates within the next decade and the possible impact on the office market.
What impact? This express line is an obvious advantage for the main occupiers of the European district but
also the occupiers of Brussels Airport (for example Deloitte and KPMG by the end of the decade) and of the
area surrounding the Bordet train station in Evere (f.i: NATO, Mobistar, Unisys, Record Bank, Electrolux).
The new express train is therefore an excellent commercial argument for the new projects at both ends
of the line. Currently the vacancy rate close to Bordet station is estimated at 7%, and at 12% for the whole
Decentralised North East subdistrict. In our view, the revamped attractivity of this area with the express train
connection may revive occupiers demand and reduce vacancy.
Demand for prime industrial opportunities INVESTMENT VOLUME BY TYPE INVESTOR 9M 2015
remains high and offer remains limited, as a Institutionals represented 38%
result prime yields compressed for the second
consecutive quarter. Prime logistics yields
Corporate Developers
compressed 25 bps this quarter to 6.5%, and 2% 2%
Government
1%
prime semi-industrial yields now stand at 7.25%. REITs Other
20% 0%
JLL time series for quarterly and submarket data are available on request, as well as rental analysis
(top quartile and weighted average rents). This is a fee-based service.
JLL Research produces on a quarterly basis detailed submarket reports about Brussels office districts.
These are available on request against paying subscription.
Our Research & Advisory service also prepares micro-location studies for landlords with a focus on
rental analysis, existing and future competition analysis with GIS mapping, transaction analysis and
SWOT.
Contact:
Pierre-Paul Verelst
Head of Research BeLux
+ 32 2 550 25 04
pierre-paul.verelst@eu.jll.com
Definitions
Take-Up to a first class tenant with an occupational
lease that is standard for the local market.
The prime initial net yield is quoted, i.e., the
Take-Up – New: Represents take-up of
initial net income at the date of purchase,
floorspace in new or substantially refur-
expressed as a percentage of the total
bished buildings of less than five years since
purchase price, which includes acquisition
completion.
costs and transfer taxes.
Take-Up – Modern: Represents take-up of
floorspace built or renovated between 5-15
years ago.
Take-up – Old: Represents take-up of floor- Vacancy
space built more than 15 years ago and not
renovated. Vacancy represents completed floorspace
offered on the open market for leasing or
sale, vacant for immediate occupation on
Rent the survey date (normally at the end of each
quarter period), within a market. It includes
all vacant accommodation irrespective of the
Prime Office Rent represents the top open-
quality of office space or the terms on which
market rent that could be expected for a
it is offered.
notional office unit of the highest quality and
Vacancy excludes “obsolete” or “mothballed”
specification in the best location in a market,
office property, i.e. floorspace held vacant and
as at the survey date (normally at the end
not being offered for letting, usually pending
of each quarter period). The rent quoted
redevelopment or major refurbishment.
normally reflects prime units of over 500
Vacancy Rate
sq. m. of lettable floorspace, which excludes
The Vacancy Rate represents immediately
rents that represent a premium level paid for
vacant office floorspace in all completed
a small quantity of space.
buildings within a market as at the survey
date (normally at the end of each quarter
Top Quartile Office Rent represents the
period), expressed as a percentage of the
average mean value of the top (25 %) quartile
total stock.
of all known face rents achieved on leasing
transactions completed within a market
during the survey period (normally calculated
annually, or quarterly on a 12 monthly rolling Stock
basis). It excludes any unrepresentative
deals. Stock represents the total amount of
completed office space in buildings mainly
Weighted Average Rent represents the used for office purposes within a market that
average mean value of all known face is capable of occupation regardless of the
rents achieved on leasing transactions type of ownership or type of building quality,
completed within a market during the as at the survey (normally at the end of each
survey period weighted with the floorspace quarter period).
(normally calculated annually, or quarterly
on a 12 month rolling basis). It excludes any
unrepresentative deals.
Completions
Completions represent floor-space
Prime yield completed during the survey period
(normally annually). Completions include
Represents the best (i.e. lowest) “rack- new development and refurbished
rented” yield estimated to be achievable for a accommodation, speculative developments,
notional office property of the highest quality pre-let floor space and space for
and specification in the best location in a owner-occupation
market, as at the survey date (normally at
the end of each quarter period). The property
should be let at the prevailing market rent
JLL Contacts
V I N C E N T H . Q U E R TO N E R I K V E R B R U G G E N (*)
INTERNATIONAL DIRECTOR - CEO BENELUX HEAD OF OFFICE AGENCY - BELGIUM
+32 (0) 2 550 25 25 +32 (0) 2 550 25 28
Erik.Verbruggen@eu.jll.com
J E A N - P H I L I P V R O N I N K S (*) P I E R R E - PA U L V E R E L S T
HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS - BELUX HEAD OF RESEARCH - BELUX
+32 (0) 2 550 26 64 +32 (0) 2 550 25 04
Jean -Philip.Vroninks@eu.jll.com Pierre-Paul.Verelst@eu.jll.com
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