Project Theme:

Calibration and uncertainty analysis in geothermal modeling in sedimentary and volcanic geological
environments

Title #1:
Subsurface temperature modeling and uncertainty analysis of the onshore northwestern Java Basin

Description:
The onshore northwestern part of the Java Basin was previously subject to a numerical forward thermal
modeling study that attempted to infer its three-dimensional subsurface temperature distribution and
its relationship with the cause of the observed surface heat flow density distribution (Putra et al, 2016).
Nonetheless, neither rigorous uncertainty characterization nor more realistic process representation
was taken into consideration, hence the very limited analysis. For example, only fixed, constant-valued
basal heat flow boundary conditions were implemented. In addition, possible permutations between
formation thermal conductivity values as well as their inherent functions of temperature and degree of
compaction were not evaluated, and there was no attempt to calibrate the modeled surface heat flow
density against the observed ones. All of these are major drawbacks of the previous investigation, and
may cause a problem especially when the modeled subsurface temperature distribution is intended to
be used as a primary consideration in carrying out an assessment on the geothermal resource of the
basin. Therefore, in this project a more rigorous thermal modeling approach will be implemented in
order to obtain a more plausible image of the subsurface temperature distribution of the onshore
northwestern part of the Java Basin, along with an improved treatment of its uncertainties arising from
thermal conductivity values and assumption on basal boundary condition. A Monte Carlo-based
approach (e.g. Jokinen and Kukkonen, 1999) will be applied to calibrate the modeled surface heat flow
densities against that of an updated dataset to determine the best thermal property-boundary condition
combinations. The resulting three-dimensional subsurface temperature distribution and its uncertainty
are expected to provide better inputs for stored thermal energy resource calculations of the basin.

References:
Jokinen, J. and Kukkonen, I.T., 1999. Inverse simulation of the lithospheric thermal regime using the
Monte Carlo method. Tectonophysics, 306(3-4), pp.293-310.
Putra, S.D.H., Suryantini, and Srigutomo, W., 2016. Thermal modeling and heat flow density
interpretation of the onshore Northwest Java Basin, Indonesia. Geothermal Energy, 4(1), p.12.
Title #2:
Conceptual and parametric uncertainties in volcano-hosted geothermal reservoir models

Description:
At the core of a geothermal reservoir numerical simulation lies an inherent exercise of translating a
natural geothermal reservoir into a model one so as to make it suitable for computations, creating many
assumptions and simplifications in the process. However, from an earth-scientific perspective, a
geothermal system, in particular one that is hosted in a volcanic setting, logically represents a highly
complex relationship between open groundwater systems and magmatic heat sources. This mismatch
between an idealized computational model and the real system is what gives birth to various modeling
uncertainties, among the most important of which arise from the conceptual system representation (i.e.
subsurface geometry and the assumptions regarding top-bottom boundary conditions) and the physical
properties (e.g. permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity). These uncertainties will be carried on by
the modeled subsurface temperature and pressure distributions and will severely impact the predictive
power of the model when it is subjected to future excitations in an attempt to simulate the geothermal
field’s development. Similar circumstances involving uncertainties have been encountered and well
recognized in the groundwater community for a long time (e.g. Hojberg and Refsgaard, 2005), and has
actually been addressed in geothermal reservoir simulations though to a somewhat lesser degree (e.g.
O’Sullivan et al, 2001). Unfortunately, these aspects are often overlooked by numerical modelers when
carrying out geothermal reservoir simulation in that most attention is given to the reservoir part rather
than to the interplay between components within the entire geothermal system, all while relying on a
visual, subjective, deterministic calibration approach. Therefore, this study will attempt to quantify the
relative influence of different conceptual model representations and material physical properties in
terms of their associated uncertainties in geothermal reservoir modeling using synthetic and real-world
models. The research is expected to have an important implication toward providing a paradigm for
better, more thoughtful practices of simulating geothermal reservoirs in general.

References:
Højberg, A.L. and Refsgaard, J.C., 2005. Model uncertainty–parameter uncertainty versus conceptual
models. Water Science and Technology, 52(6), pp.177-186.
O'Sullivan, M.J., Pruess, K. and Lippmann, M.J., 2001. State of the art of geothermal reservoir
simulation. Geothermics, 30(4), pp.395-429.