7

C H A P TKE-
KULIAH ER

The Exchange Rate &

The Open Economy

MACROECONOMICS
Compiled from
SIXTH EDITION

N. GREGORY MANKIW
PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich
© 2007 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
 In this chapter, you will learn…

 accounting identities for the open economy

 the small open economy model
 what makes it “small”
 how the trade balance and exchange rate are
determined
 how policies affect trade balance & exchange
rate

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 1

 Degree of Openness: Trade-GDP ratio
(Imports + Exports) as a percentage of GDP, 2004

Luxembourg 275.5% Germany 71.1%

Ireland 150.9 Turkey 63.6
Czech Republic 143.0 Mexico 61.2
Hungary 134.5 Spain 55.6
Austria 97.1 United Kingdom 53.8
Switzerland 85.1 France 51.7
Sweden 83.8 Italy 50.0
Korea, Republic of 83.7 Australia 39.6
Poland 80.0 United States 25.4
Canada 73.1 Japan 24.4

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 2

 In an open economy,

 Trade-path:
 spending need not equal output
 Capital-path:
 saving need not equal investment

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 3

 Preliminaries
superscripts:
d f
C C C d = spending on
d f domestic goods
I I I f = spending on
d f
G G G foreign goods

EX = exports =
foreign spending on domestic goods
IM = imports = C f + I f + G f
= spending on foreign goods
NX = net exports (a.k.a. the “trade balance”)
= EX – IM
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 4
 GDP = expenditure on
domestically produced g & s

Y  C d  I d  G d  EX
f f f
 (C  C )  (I  I )  (G  G )  EX

 C  I  G  EX  (C f  I f  G f )

 C  I  G  EX  IM

 C  I  G  NX

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 5

 Trade surpluses and deficits

NX = EX – IM = Y – (C + I + G )

 trade surplus:
output > spending and exports > imports
Size of the trade surplus = NX
 trade deficit:
spending > output and imports > exports
Size of the trade deficit = –NX

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 6

 U.S. net exports, 1950-2006

U.S. Net Exports, 1950-2006

200 2%

0 0%
billions of dollars

percent of GDP
-200 -2%

-400 -4%

-600 -6%

-800 -8%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NX ($ billions) NX (% of GDP)
 Ekspor-Impor Indonesia, 1981-2011 (Juta US$)

CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics slide 8

 International capital flows

 Net capital outflow

=S –I
= net outflow of “loanable funds”
= net purchases of foreign assets
the country’s purchases of foreign assets
minus foreign purchases of domestic assets

 When S > I, country is a net lender

 When S < I, country is a net borrower
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 9
 The link between trade & cap. flows

NX = Y – (C + I + G )
implies
NX = (Y – C – G ) – I
= S – I
trade balance = net capital outflow

Thus,
a country with a trade deficit (NX < 0)
is a net borrower (S < I ).

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 10

 Saving and investment
in a small open economy
 An open-economy version of the loanable
funds model from Chapter 3.
 Includes many of the same elements:
 production function Y  Y  F (K , L )
 consumption function C  C (Y T )
 investment function I  I (r )
 exogenous policy variables G  G , T  T

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 11

 National saving:
The supply of loanable funds

r S  Y  C (Y T )  G

As in Chapter 3,
national saving does
not depend on the
interest rate

S S, I
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 12
 Assumptions re: Capital flows

a. domestic & foreign bonds are perfect substitutes

(same risk, maturity, etc.)
b. perfect capital mobility:
no restrictions on international trade in assets
c. economy is small:
cannot affect the world interest rate, denoted r*

a & b imply r = r*
c implies r* is exogenous
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 13
 Investment:
The demand for loanable funds
Investment is still a
r
downward-sloping function
of the interest rate,
but the exogenous
world interest rate…
r* …determines the
country’s level of
investment.
I (r )

I (r* ) S, I
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 14
 If the economy were closed…
r S
…the interest
rate would
adjust to
equate
investment
and saving: rc
I (r )

I (rc ) S, I
S
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 15
 But in a small open economy…
r
the exogenous S
world interest
rate determines
investment… NX
r*
…and the
difference rc
between saving
and investment I (r )
determines net
capital outflow I1 S, I
and net exports
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 16
 Next, three experiments:

1. Fiscal policy at home

2. Fiscal policy abroad

3. An increase in investment demand

See Supplement 5-4, Benefits of a Trade Deficit.

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 17

 1. Fiscal policy at home
r S 2 S1
An increase in G
or decrease in T NX2
reduces saving. r1
*

NX1
Results:
I  0
NX  S  0 I (r )

I1 S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 18

 NX and the federal budget deficit
(% of GDP), 1960-2006
4% 8%
Budget deficit
2% (right scale) 6%

4%
0%
2%
-2%
0%

-4% Net exports -2%

(left scale)
-6% -4%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
slide 19
 2. Fiscal policy abroad
r S1
Expansionary
NX2
fiscal policy
abroad raises r2*
NX1
the world
interest rate. r1
*

Results:
I  0 I (r )
NX  I  0
S, I
I (r )
2
*
I (r1* )

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 20

 3. An increase in investment demand
r
S

r*
EXERCISE:
Use the model to NX1
determine the impact
of an increase in
investment demand I (r )1
on NX, S, I, and
net capital outflow. I1 S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 21

 3. An increase in investment demand
r
S
ANSWERS: NX2
I > 0, r*
S = 0,
net capital NX1
outflow and I (r )2
NX fall by the
amount I I (r )1

I1 I2 S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 22

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 23
 The nominal exchange rate

e = nominal exchange rate,

the relative price of
domestic currency
in terms of foreign currency

Warning: di buku lain, konsepnya di balik

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 24

 A few exchange rates, as of 7/14/06

country exchange rate

Euro 0.79 Euro/$
Indonesia 9,105 Rupiahs/$
Japan 116.3 Yen/$
Mexico 11.0 Pesos/$
Russia 27.0 Rubles/$
South Africa 7.2 Rand/$
U.K. 0.54 Pounds/$

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 25

 Meaning of Exchange Rate and
Measuring Changes in Exchange Rates
 Value of one currency in units of another currency
 A decline in a currency’s value is referred to as
depreciation and an increase in currency’s value is
called appreciation.
 If currency A can buy you more units of foreign
currency, currency A has appreciated and foreign
currency depreciated
 If currency A can buy you less units of foreign currency,
currency A has depreciated and foreign currency
appreciated

slide 26
Cases:
 1 US$ = Rp 9300 to
 1 US$ = Rp 9800
 Rupiah apreciation or depreciation?

 1 rupiah = 0,010 yen to

 1 rupiah = 0,008 yen
 Rupiah apreciation or depreciation?

slide 27
 Appreciation/Depreciation
 Percentage change in value of Rp
New Value of Foreign Currency per Rp - Old value of foreign currency per Rp
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X 100
Old value of Foreign Currency per Rp

 Percentage change in value of Foreign Currency

New Value of Rp per units of Foreign Currency - Old value of Rp per unit of foreign currency
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X 100
Old value of Rp per unit of Foreign Currency

slide 28
 Appreciation vs Revaluation

 APPRECIATION  REVALUATION
 Market mechanism  policy

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 29

 Depreciation vs Devaluation

 DEPRECIATION  DEVALUATION
 Market mechanism  policy

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 30

 2015

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 31

 2015

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 32

 2015

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 33

 Indeks Harga Saham Harian May 2014-May 2015

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 34

 Uji dengan Net Ekspor

 Apakah ada hubungan antara NX dengan nilai

tukar rupiah

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 35

 Exchange Rate Equilibrium

 Forces of Demand and Supply

 Demand for foreign currency negatively related
to the price of foreign currency
 Supply of foreign currency positively related to
the price of foreign currency
 Forces of demand and supply together
determine the exchange rate

slide 36
 Demand for Foreign Currency
Price for Foreign Currency

Rp2.00

Rp1.50
D
50 75 Units of Foreign Currency (£)

slide 37
 Supply of Foreign Currency

Supply for Foreign Currency

S
Rp2.00

Rp1.50
S

50 m 75 m
Units of Foreign
Currency (£)

slide 38
Equilibrium Exchange Rate

Exchange Rate

D S

Rp1.6775

S D

Units of Foreign
Currency(£)
slide 39
 The real exchange rate

ε = real exchange rate,

the relative price of
the lowercase domestic goods
Greek letter in terms of foreign goods
epsilon
(e.g. Japan (foreign) Big Macs
per U.S. Big Mac)

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 40

 Understanding the units of ε
• = foreign
e P Di buku lain, dibalik.
ε  Karena perbedaan
P * konsep nominal
exchange rate
(Yen per $)  ($ per unit U.S. goods)

Yen per unit Japanese goods

Yen per unit U.S. goods


Yen per unit Japanese goods

Units of Japanese goods


per unit of U.S. goods

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 41

~ McZample ~
 one good: Big Mac
 price in Japan:
P* = 200 Yen
 price in USA:
P = $2.50
 nominal exchange rate
e = 120 Yen/$ To buy a U.S. Big Mac,
someone from Japan
ε  e P would have to pay an
P*
amount that could buy
120  $2.50
  1.5 1.5 Japanese Big Macs.
200 Yen
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 42
 ε in the real world & our model

 In the real world:

We can think of ε as the relative price of
a basket of domestic goods in terms of a
basket of foreign goods
 In our macro model:
There’s just one good, “output.”
So ε is the relative price of one country’s
output in terms of the other country’s output

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 43

 How NX depends on ε

ε  Domestic goods become more expensive

relative to foreign goods
 EX, IM
 NX

ε artinya mata uang domestik apresiasi

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 44

 U.S. net exports and the
real exchange rate, 1973-2006
3% Trade-weighted real 140
2% exchange rate index
120
1%

Index (March 1973 = 100)

0% 100
NX (% of GDP)

-1%
80
-2%
60
-3%
-4% 40
Net exports
-5% (left scale)
20
-6%
-7% 0
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 45
 The net exports function

 The net exports function reflects this inverse

relationship between NX and ε :

NX = NX(ε )

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 46

 The NX curve for the U.S.

so U.S. net
When ε is exports will
relatively low, be high
U.S. goods are
relatively ε1
inexpensive
NX (ε)
0
NX(ε1) NX
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 47
 The NX curve for the U.S.

ε At high enough
values of ε,
ε2 U.S. goods become
so expensive that
we export
less than
we import

NX (ε)
NX(ε2) 0 NX
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 48
 How ε is determined

 The accounting identity says NX = S – I

 We saw earlier how S – I is determined:
 S depends on domestic factors (output, fiscal
policy variables, etc)
 I is determined by the world interest
rate r *
 So, ε must adjust to ensure

NX(ε) = S – I(r*)

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 49

 How ε is determined
Neither S nor I
ε S 1  I (r *)
depend on ε,
so the net capital
outflow curve is
vertical.

ε1
ε adjusts to
equate NX NX(ε )
with net capital
outflow, S  I. NX
NX 1

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 50

 Interpretation: Supply and demand
in the foreign exchange market
demand:
ε S 1  I (r *)
Foreigners need
dollars to buy
U.S. net exports.

supply: ε1
Net capital
outflow (S  I ) NX(ε )
is the supply of
NX
dollars to be NX 1
invested abroad.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 51
 Next, four experiments:

1. Fiscal policy at home

2. Fiscal policy abroad

3. An increase in investment demand

4. Trade policy to restrict imports

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 52

 1. Fiscal policy at home

A fiscal expansion S 2  I (r *)
reduces national ε S 1  I (r *)
saving, net capital
outflow, and the ε2
supply of dollars
in the foreign
exchange ε1
market…
NX(ε )
…causing the real
NX
exchange rate to NX 2 NX 1
rise and NX to fall.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 53
 2. Fiscal policy abroad
An increase in r* S 1  I (r1 *)
reduces ε
investment, S 1  I (r2 *)
increasing net
capital outflow ε1
and the supply of
dollars in the ε2
foreign exchange
market… NX(ε )

…causing the real NX

NX 1 NX 2
exchange rate to fall
and NX to rise.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 54
 3. Increase in investment demand
An increase in S1  I 2
investment ε S1  I 1
reduces net
capital outflow
and the supply ε2
of dollars in the
foreign exchange ε1
market…
NX(ε )
…causing the
NX
real exchange NX 2 NX 1
rate to rise and
NX to fall.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 55
 4. Trade policy to restrict imports

At any given value of

ε, an import quota ε S I
 IM  NX
 demand for ε2
dollars shifts
right ε1
NX (ε )2
Trade policy doesn’t
NX (ε )1
affect S or I , so
capital flows and the NX
NX1
supply of dollars
remain fixed.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 56
 4. Trade policy to restrict imports

Results:
ε S I
ε > 0
(demand
increase) ε2
NX = 0
(supply fixed) ε1
IM < 0 NX (ε )2
(policy)
NX (ε )1
EX < 0
(rise in ε ) NX
NX1

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 57

 Factors that influence the
Exchange Rate
 Expectations of the Market
 Political Events
 Relative Inflation Rates
 Relative Interest Rates
 Relative Income Levels
Exchange rate is the results of an interaction of
these factors

slide 58
 Market Expectations

 Expectations about future exchange rate

changes on the basis of current and future
political and economic conditions
 The ideal president
 USA: Between 1960s and 1970s: weak $
 USA: Strong $ in 1999 – 2001
 USA: Weak Dollar today 2005
 1995 European Exchange Rate Mechanism
 Devaluation of Asian Currencies
slide 59
 Political Events

 Monetary crisis 1998

 Election voters
 War
 Europe crisis 2011
 September 11, 2001

slide 60
 Relative Inflation

 High inflation relative to a foreign country,

decline in value of currency—Why?
 Low inflation relative to a foreign country,
increase in value of currency—Why?

slide 61
 The determinants of the
nominal exchange rate

 Start with the expression for the real exchange

rate: e P
 *
P
 Solve for the nominal exchange rate:
*
P
e 
P

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 62

 The determinants of the
nominal exchange rate

 So e depends on the real exchange rate and

the price levels at home and abroad…
…and we know how each
of them is determined: M*
 L *
(r *   *, Y *
)
P *

P*
e 
P
M
NX() = S - I(r*)  L (r *   , Y )
P

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 63

 The determinants of the
nominal exchange rate
*
P
e 
P
 Rewrite this equation in growth rates
(see “arithmetic tricks for working with percentage
changes,” Chap 2 ):

e  P *
P 
     
*

e  P *
P 
 For a given value of ,
the growth rate of e equals the difference
between foreign and domestic inflation rates.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 64
 Inflation differentials and nominal
exchange rates
35
Percentage Mexico
30
change in
nominal 25
exchange
20 Iceland
rate
15
10 Singapore
South Africa
Canada
5 South Korea
_
0 U.K.
Japan
-5
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Inflation differential
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 65
 Teori Purchasing Power Parity

 Law of one price: Harga suatu komoditas di

berbagai negara adalah sama. Yang
membedakan hanyalah ongkos transportasi
 Contoh: harga satu meter kain di Indonesia
adalah Rp 20.000,-, sementara di USA seharga
US$ 2.0. Maka US$ 1 = Rp 10.000,-

slide 66
 Teori Purchasing Power Parity

 Jika harga di USA tetap, sementara harga satu

meter kain di Indonesia naik 20% (menjadi Rp
24.000,-
 Maka US$ 1 = 24000/2 = Rp 12.000,-
 Jadi, inflasi (perubahan harga) relatif terhadap
negara lain, mempengaruhi kurs nilai tukar

slide 67
 Teori Purchasing Power Parity

Ef = persentase perubahan nilai valuta asing

Contoh: Nilai tukar awal berada pada kondisi ekuilibrium.

Kemudian valuta domestik mengalami inflasi 5 % sementara
negara lain mengalami inflasi 3 %. Menurut teori PPP nilai
valas tersebut akan mengalami penyesuaian sbb:
Ef = [(1+∏dom)/(1+∏for)]-1
= ((1+5%)/(1+3%))-1
= 0,0194 = 1,94 %
(Mata uang asing tsb APRESIASI sebesar 1,94%) slide 68
 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

Two definitions:
 A doctrine that states that goods must sell at the
same (currency-adjusted) price in all countries.
 The nominal exchange rate adjusts to equalize the
cost of a basket of goods across countries.
Reasoning:
 arbitrage, the law of one price

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 69

 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

 PPP: e P = P* Cost of a basket of

foreign goods, in
foreign currency.

Cost of a basket of Cost of a basket of

domestic goods, in domestic goods, in
foreign currency. domestic currency.

 Solve for e : e = P*/ P

 PPP implies that the nominal exchange rate
between two countries equals the ratio of the
countries’ price levels.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 70
 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
 If e = P*/P,
P P* P
then   e    * 1
P *
P P
and the NX curve is horizontal:
ε
S I Under PPP,
changes in
(S – I ) have no
ε =1 NX impact on ε or e.

NX
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 71
 Does PPP hold in the real world?

 No, for two reasons:

1. International arbitrage not possible.
 nontraded goods
 transportation costs
2. Different countries’ goods not perfect substitutes.
 Nonetheless, PPP is a useful theory:
 It’s simple & intuitive
 In the real world, nominal exchange rates
tend toward their PPP values over the long run.
See Supplement 5-9, PPP and Real Exchange Rates.

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 72

 Relative Interest Rates

 High interest rates in home country relative to a

foreign country may cause domestic currency to
appreciate—Why?

slide 73
 Teori Interest Parity

 Ketika suku bunga domestik untuk valas naik 

terjadi capital inflow [aliran dana asing (valas)
masuk ke dalam negeri]  permintaan valas di
dalam negeri menurun  nilai tukar domestik
apresiasi
 Ketika suku bunga domestik untuk valas turun
 terjadi capital outflow [aliran dana asing
keluar negeri] permintaan valas di dalam
negeri meningkat (karena kekurangan)  nilai
tukar domestik depresiasi

slide 74
 Relative Income Levels

 Increase in domestic income relative to foreign

income may lead to a decline in the value of
domestic currency– Why?

slide 75
1. Jika inflasi di Indonesia 8%
sementara di USA 2%, perkirakan nilai
Rupiah terhadap US$, apresiasi atau
depresiasi? Berapa presentasenya?

2. Jika tingkat suku bunga di

Indonesia naik lebih tinggi dari pada
suku bunga dunia, perkirakan nilai
Rupiah melemah atau menguat
terhadap US$. Jelaskan
mekanismenya.
 Kurs Masa Lalu: Gold Standard

Gold Standard dimulai pada tahun 1880 dan berakhir

pada awal perang dunia pertama. Gold Standard
terbagi menjadi dua sistem yaitu:
1. Gold Specie Standard
 Standard ini menentukan nilai mata uang suatu
negara dikaitkan dengan nilai jumlah tertentu Emas.
Pada saat diterapkan standard ini uang kertas
belum dikenal luas sehingga mata uang pada saat
itu berbentuk koin logam dll. Nilai nominal yang
tertera pada mata uang tersebut sama dengan
harga bahan baku emas mata uang tersebut.
slide 77
 Kurs Masa Lalu: Gold Standard
2. Gold Bullion Standard
 Pada standard ini bank sentral menjamin konvertibilitas
mata uangnya (uang kertas) dengan emas. Artinya
pemerintah akan menukar mata uangnya (uang kertas)
dengan emas dalam jumlah tetap yang telah ditentukan.
Masyarakat bebas menukarkan uang yang dipegangnya
menjadi emas ke bank sentral. Sehingga secara teoritis
setiap unit uang yang dikeluarkan pemerintah di “backup”
sejumlah tertentu emas.
 Namun pada kenyataannya emas yang disimpan
biasanya kurang dari jumlah seharusnya disediakan untuk
“backup” seluruh uang yang beredar. Hal ini dimungkinkan
karena kepercayaan Masyarakat terhadap mata uang
tersebut. Karena masyarakat bebas menukarkan uangnya
dengan emas kapan saja dia mau maka justru masyarakat
tidak manukarkan mata uangnya kecuali dalam keadaan
terpaksa. Contoh pemerintah inggris bisa
mempertahankan cadangan emasnya hanya 5% dari
jumlah yang seharusnya disediakan. slide 78
Sistem Nilai Tukar
1. Nilai Tukar Tetap (Fixed Exchange Rate)
 Lembaga otoritas moneter menetapkan tingkat nilai tukar
mata uang domestik terhadap mata uang negara lain pada
tingkat tertentu, tanpa memperhatikan penawaran ataupun
permintaan terhadap valuta asing yang terjadi.
 Bila terjadi kekurangan atau kelebihan penawaran atau
permintaan lebih tinggi dari yang ditetapkan pemerintah,
maka dalam hal ini akan mengambil tindakan untuk
membawa tingkat nilai tukar ke arah yang telah ditetapkan.
 Tindakan yang diambil oleh otoritas moneter bisa berupa
pembelian ataupun penjualan valuta asing, bila tindakan ini
tidak mampu mengatasinya, maka akan dilakukan
penjatahan valuta asing.

slide 79
Sistem Nilai Tukar
2 Nilai Tukar Mengambang (Floating Exchange
Rate)
 Pemerintah tidak mencampuri tingkat nilai tukar
sama sekali sehingga nilai tukar diserahkan pada
permintaan dan penawaran valuta asing.
 Penerapan sistem ini dimaksudkan untuk mencapai
penyesuaian yang lebih berkesinambungan pada
posisi keseimbangan eksternal (external equilibrium
position).
 Tetapi kemudian timbul indikasi bahwa beberapa
persoalan akan timbul dari kurs yang fluktuatif ,
terutama karena karakteristik ekonomi dan struktur
kelembagaan pada negara berkembang masih
sederhana. Dalam sistem ini diperlukan sistem
perekonomian yang sudah mapan .

slide 80
 Sejarah Perkembangan Kebijakan
Nilai Tukar di Indonesia

 Sejak periode 1970 hingga sekarang, sistem

nilai tukar yang berlaku di Indonesia telah
mengalami perubahan sebanyak tiga kali, yaitu
Sistem Nilai Tukar Tetap, Sistem Nilai tukar
Mengambang Terkendali, dan terakhir Sistem
Nilai tukar Mengambang Bebas.

slide 81
Sejarah Perkembangan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar di Indonesia:
SISTEM NILAI TUKAR TETAP (1964-1978)
 Berlaku berdasarkan UU No.32/1964 dengan nilai tukar resmi Rp 250/US$,
sementara nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang lainnya dihitung
berdasarkan nilai tukar Rupiah per US$ di bursa valuta asing
 Selama periode tersebut di atas, Indonesia menganut sistem kontrol
devisa yang relatif ketat. Para eksportir diwajibkan menjual hasil devisanya
kepada Bank Indonesia (BI). Sebagai konsekuensi kewajiban penjualan devisa
tersebut, BI harus dapat memenuhi semua kebutuhan valuta asing bank
komersial dalam memenuhi permintaan valuta asing oleh importir maupun
masyarakat.
 BI memiliki kewenangan penuh dalam mengawasi transaksi devisa.
Sementara untuk menjaga kestabilan nilai tukar pada tingkat yang telah
ditetapkan, Bank Indonesia melakukan intervensi aktif di pasar valuta
asing.
 Indonesia telah melakukan devaluasi sebanyak tiga kali;
 17 April 1970 dimana nilai tukar Rupiah ditetapkan kembali menjadi Rp
378/US Dollar.
 23 Agustus 1971 menjadi Rp 415/US Dollar
 15 November 1978 dengan nilai tukar sebesar Rp 625/US Dollar.
Kebijakan devaluasi tersebut dilakukan karena nilai tukar Rupiah
mengalami overvaluated sehingga dapat mengurangi daya saing produk-
produk ekspor di pasar internasional. slide 82
Sejarah Perkembangan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar di Indonesia:
SISTEM NILAI TUKAR MENGAMBANG TERKENDALI (1978-
1997)
 Pemerintah mempengaruhi tingkat nilai tukar melalui permintaan dan
penawaran valuta asing, biasanya sistem ini diterapkan untuk menjaga
stabilitas moneter dan neraca pembayaran.
 Sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali di Indonesia ditetapkan
bersamaan dengan kebijakan devaluasi Rupiah pada tahun 1978
sebesar 33 %. Pada sistem ini nilai tukar Rupiah diambangkan terhadap
sekeranjang mata uang (basket currencies) negara-negara mitra
dagang utama Indonesia. Dengan sistem tersebut, Bank Indonesia
menetapkan kurs indikasi dan membiarkan kurs bergerak di pasar
dengan spread tertentu. Untuk menjaga kestabilan nilai tukar Rupiah,
maka Bank Indonesia melakukan intervensi bila kurs bergejolak
melebihi batas atas atau batas bawah spread.
 Pada saat sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali diterapkan di
Indonesia, nilai tukar Rupiah dari tahun ke tahunnya terus mengalami
depresiasi terhadap US Dollar. Nilai tukar Rupiah berubah-ubah antara
Rp 644/US Dollar sampai Rp 2.383/US Dollar. Dengan perkataan lain,
slide 83
nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap US Dollar cenderung tidak pasti.
Sejarah Perkembangan Kebijakan Nilai Tukar di Indonesia:
SISTEM NILAI TUKAR MENGAMBANG BEBAS (1997-now)

 Sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas berlaku pada periode 1997

hingga sekarang. Sejak pertengahan Juli 1997, Rupiah mengalami
tekanan yang mengakibatkan semakin melemahnya nilai Rupiah
terhadap US Dollar. Tekanan tersebut diakibatkan oleh adanya
currency turmoil yang melanda Thailand dan menyebar ke negara-
negara ASEAN termasuk Indonesia.
 Untuk mengatasi tekanan tersebut, Bank Indonesia melakukan
intervensi baik melalui spot exchange rate (kurs langsung) maupun
forward exchange rate (kurs berjangka) dan untuk sementara dapat
menstabilkan nilai tukar Rupiah.
 Namun untuk selanjutnya tekanan terhadap depresiasi Rupiah
semakin meningkat. Oleh karena itu dalam rangka mengamankan
cadangan devisa yang terus berkurang, pada tgl 14 Ags 1997, BI
memutuskan untuk menghapus rentang intervensi sehingga nilai tukar
Rupiah dibiarkan mengikuti mekanisme pasar.
 slide 84
 Keuntungan penerapan nilai tukar
tetap atau yang lebih rigid
 Mempromosikan perdagangan internasional
dan investasi
 Menciptakan disiplin kebijakan-kebijakan makro
 Promosi kerjasama internasional karena
penerapan nilai tukar tetap menjaga tingkat
inflasi domestik
 Mencegah timbulnya spekulasi irasional yang
menyebabkan destabilisasi ekonomi

slide 85
 Keuntungan penerapan nilai
tukar mengambang bebas
 Menjaga keseimbangan neraca pembayaran
(balance of payment)
 Menjamin otonomi moneter yang lebih besar.
Penentuan tingkat inflasi tidak tergantung
kepada negara mitra dagang
 Mengisolasi perekonomian dari gangguan
eksternal (external shocks)
 Mempromosikan stabilitas ekonomi
 Spekulasi (private speculation) dapat
mendorong meningkatkan stabilitas ekonomi
slide 86
 Konsekuensi Nilai Tukar Tetap
 Tingkat keterbukaan ekonomi pun menentukan effektifitas kebijakan
devaluasi
 Tiga phase berbahayanya pada kebijakan moneter. Phase pertama,
exchange rate-based stabilization berjalan dengan baik dan dapat
menekan inflasi yang meningkatkan stabilisasi ekonomi. Kemudian,
pada phase kedua, secara perlahan terjadi apresiasi terhadap riil nilai
tukar (real appreciation). Phase ketiga, akibat apresiasi nilai tukar,
daya saing ekpor telihat jelas menurun, sehingga perlu dilakukan
langkah-langkah kebijakan devaluasi.
 Kondisi politik tidak mengizinkan untuk dilakukannya devaluasi: krisis
keuangan
 Stabilitas ekonomi juga tergantung kepada kondisi perekonomian
negara yang dipatok mata uangnya
 Tingkat fleksibilitas upah dan harga domestik merupakan salah satu
faktor penting dalam penerapan sistem nilai tukar tetap. Sebagai
contoh, untuk mengatasi defisit perdagangan melalui kekuatan pasar,
nilai tukar tetap pada umumnya menyebabkan berkurangnya money
income relatif terhadap negara lain (mitra dagang)
slide 87
 Konsekuensi Nilai Tukar Fleksibel
 Sindrom fear of floating
 Negara emerging market cenderung export oriented,
nilai tukar fleksibel akan mudah menimbulkan volatilitas
 Belum mempunyai kelembagaan yang baik dan efektif
untuk melaksanakan kebijakan moneter yang
independen
 Penerapan nilai tukar fleksibel (secara luas dterima
oleh para ekonom) lebih menguntungkan bilamana
neraca pembayaran seringkali mendapat gangguan
eksternal
 Tingginya mobilitas kapital dan modal di lingkungan
global, informasi yang tidak sempurna di negara-negara
emerging market, dan mempunyai tingkat liabilities
yang didominasi mata uang US dollar.
slide 88