Afghan Endgames: Strategy and Policy Choices for America's Longest War 1

Review by Malik Umair Khan

Afghan Endgames: Book Review

Introduction

Afghan war, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, represents one of the most difficult policy
challenges for each successive administration in the US. Seventeen years into the war and its end
is as elusive as ever. Even, the desired goal of this conflict, for USA at least, has changed so
many times that it is no more certain. Different experts suggest varying options to be considered
as the ultimate objective that the US Government should pursue. This range of options entails
disparate strategies argued by these proponents.

"Afghan Endgames: Strategy and Policy Choices for America's Longest War" is one such
example where several policy options have been considered and argued by various scholars. The
book is a compilation of twelve essays, edited by Hy Rothstein and John Arquilla. It was
published in 2013 and much of the analysis is based on the ground realities of 2012 Afghanistan.
Therefore, the policy options advocated in the book are geared towards the second administration
of President Obama. The book was result of a research grant from the US Department of
Defense.

Central Theme

As a collection of different essays written by academics and researchers, the book is divided into
four parts: Overview, Strategic Alternatives, Other Perspectives and Conclusion. Overview is the
Part I of the book which adopts a historical, social and functional discourse for the discussion.
The historical position is taken by Dr. Victor Davis Hanson in his essay ‘A Familiar Western
Experience in Ancient Afghanistan’ wherein his disregard for the popular notion of inability of
world empires in conquering Afghanistan is evident by his emphasis on the conquest of the
country by the Greek rulers such as Alexander the Great. Dr. Thomas Barfield has discussed the
social narrative regarding the prevailing conflicts in the society of Afghanistan in his essay
‘Afghan Paradoxes’. As the name of his essay suggests, he maintains that the urban/rural
division of Afghan society is based on the level of acceptance of state institutions and their
authority. His line of argument suggests that people in Afghanistan need to adhere to the
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centralization of governance in a sharp contrast to the traditional arrangement of governance.

Rather they prefer to follow a desert civilization which offers resistance to the foreign authority
and develops a closed society with economic dependence on its own produce. The last essay in
the first part of book, ‘America’s Longest War’, is written by Dr. Hy Rothstein where he
delineates the operational reasons of nearly failed state of war waged by USA due to her ill
designed military strategy albeit gaining few successes against Taliban.

Part II of the book revolves around the strategic alternatives offered by four different essays. ‘A
Case for Withdrawal’ is the first essay of Part II which is written by Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich. He
argues the success of the Afghan policy can be gauged on the basis of grand strategy of USA.
According to him, the withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan without gaining the visible victory
from Taliban does not imply failure for USA. In fact, the far-reaching implications of US
approach in Afghanistan whose purpose is to achieve the fall of terrorist networks around the
globe will be productive for the grand strategy of USA in the longer run. However, a counter
argument is presented by Dr. Frederick W. Kagan in the second essay of this part ‘A Case for
Staying the Course’. He is of the view that in order to achieve success in Afghanistan, USA
government should not leave the country without accomplishing the desired goal of establishing
a legitimate Afghan government and eliminating all elements of terrorism in the country. Dr.
Kagan is convinced that if USA considers to leave the country before realizing the planned
outcome, terrorist networks such as Al Qaeda would pose a threat again. In the midst of two
contrasting views, a middle ground is taken up by Dr. Edward Luttwak in his essay
‘Afghanistan: A Third Way’. Although he sets off the tone of essay by criticizing the prevalent
policies of USA government for Afghanistan at that time, but later he adapts a more affirmative
tenor by suggesting proactive involvement of other countries such as Russia, China, Iran and
India and like-minded Afghan tribes in the problem solving process of Afghanistan. The last
essay of Part II, ‘Beyond Victory and Defeat’ is written by Dr. Scott Sigmund Gartner and Dr.
Leo Blanken. They have sketched a picture of post-war Afghanistan scenario wherein they
reckon the establishment of a security structure in the country to be of utmost importance. Their
main focus is to portray a practical image of Afghanistan after the war where problems related to
violence would occur time and again but at the same time, a viable security system would be in
place to handle the prevailing circumstances and other challenges.
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The three essays in Part III of the book delve into other perspectives namely post war ethics. Dr.
Russell Muirhead in his essay, ‘The Ethics of Exit: Moral Obligations in the Afghan Endgame’
deliberates on the post war justice which, in his view, includes the provision of stability and
legitimacy to the Afghan government. He does not consider it apposite to leave the country in the
state of turmoil. However, he is of the view that establishment of a democratic government is not
the responsibility of USA government. A functional, stable and legitimate form of governance in
Afghanistan will do the job for USA. In his detailed essay ‘Shaping Strategic Communication’,
Dr. Robert Reilly contemplates the approach of Afghan people towards peace as their country
has been in chaos for the last three decades. The idea of introducing peace in Afghan society,
albeit the presence of Taliban and their supporters, seems daunting and a well-designed
information strategy is required to bring all parties to the table for the said purpose. In the last
essay of Part III, ‘Civil and Uncivil Society’, the authors Jade I. Rodriguez and Rebecca Lorentz
throw light on the role of both civil and uncivil non-state actors such as NGOs and
Taliban/criminal gangs. In their analysis, the role of Afghan youth towards the formation of civil
society might work in a decentralized manner but at the same time the whole process would
strengthen the central mode of governance in the country. Dr. John Arquilla and Dr. Hy
Rothstein in their Part IV essay titled ‘Conclusion: Assessing the Strategic Alternatives’ sums up
the whole discussion.

Critical Analysis

The arguments of Dr. Andrew J. Bacevich in "A Case for Withdrawal” fail to address the
problems that might arise as a consequence of US withdrawal, namely, rise of Taliban and
militants, a potential hunt down of US allied tribes in Afghanistan, and most importantly, the
impetus that global terrorist networks might get from an extremist-friendly regime in
Afghanistan. The perils of this policy have further enhanced by the increasing threat of ISIS
getting foothold in Afghanistan. He also fails to mention that the US pullout from Afghanistan
immediately after the end of Cold War led to a brutal civil war and rise of Taliban that came to
haunt the US after a decade.

Dr. Frederick W. Kagan argues for a more committed approach from the US in his essay ‘A Case
for Staying the Course’. He is also mindful of the Pakistani concerns regarding the situation in
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Afghanistan, mainly the inclusion of the majority Pashtun population in the representation in
government institutions. However, he ignores Pakistani concerns regarding Indian involvement
in Afghanistan and its adverse security implications for Pakistan.

Dr. Edward Luttwak in his essay ‘Afghanistan: A Third Way’ downplays the importance of
religion for a large majority of Afghan people and considers it only as a source of sectarian
divide. Discussing all the regional partners, he gives less importance to the role of Pakistan as
compared to India, even though India is not even an immediate neighbor of Afghansitan.

Theoretically, the option suggested by Gartner and Blanken in 'Beyond Victory and Deafeat'
appears to be the most plausible and is perhaps nearest to the policy adopted by President Obama
in his second Administration. It calls for a small presence of US personnel for a long time in
collaboration of local forces. However, the same has not worked in practical terms from 2013 up
till now. The reason, perhaps, is the US neglect of Pakistani concerns and suggestions.

Conclusion

"Afghan Endgames" presents an array of fine ideas about the military policy of USA in
Afghanistan from the historical, social, operational, strategic, ethical and anthropological
perspectives. Each essay showcases a different approach for the policy formulation on the issue.
From the proposal of withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan to significant reduction in their
numbers, every recommendation is gauged along its estimated costs and expected benefits.
Comprehensive compilation of the academic references in the book makes it an excellent read
for the policymakers, students and researchers. However, the sheer volume of these references
can be a turn off for a layman. It is also noted that authors while presenting a holistic picture of
the Afghan society, politics and culture, tend to simplify the strategic realities of the region.