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ECONOMETRICS PROJECT

Group: 136

12/01/2015

1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION

II. HYPOTHESIS TESTING

III. LINEAR SIMPLE REGRESSION

IV. LINEAR MULTIPLE REGRESSION

V. CONCLUSION

VI. ANEXES

2

I.

INTRODUCTION

dependence of one variable (the dependent variable), on one or more other

variables (the explanatory variables), in order to estimate and predict the

mean value of the former in terms of the known values of the latter. A simple

linear regression model attempts to explain the relationship between two

variables using a straight line.

Multiple linear regression attempts to model the relationship between

two or more explanatory variables and a response variable by fitting a linear

equation to observed data. Every value of the independent variable x is

associated with a value of the dependent variable y.

The purpose of this project is to determine whether there is a correlation

between the monthly value of GDP starting in January 2007 and ending in

October 2012 in United States of America (the dependant variable) and the

unemployment rate (the independent variable) - for the scope of conducting

a simple regression - and, moreover, for conducting a multiple one, we are

adding also the inflation rate for each month starting the year 2007 and

ending in October 2012 (also independent variable).

The purpose of this paper is to find a correlation between these variables,

meaning the strength of their relationship, or the degree of linear

association. We shall also test the significance of the coefficients, the validity

of the model through different methods such as F Test and p Value and we

will draw conclusions regarding the autocorrelation and the

heteroscedasticity/ homoscedasticity of the model.

The most important and relevant information needed for conducting such

a test is gathering the necessary data in order to process the simple and the

multiple regressions. In our case, data has been obtained from a single

source, this being http://www.y.charts.com. The study was conducted on all

70 months during the period between the years Jan. 2007 – Oct. 2012,

having the year 2007 as reference year for the accumulated data. In the

following rows, there are some briefly details upon our dependent and

independent variables that the study consists of:

the primary indicator used to gauge the health of a country's economy and

the total U.S. dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific

time period - it is practically the size of the economy;

X1= The value of the monthly Unemployment Rate (%) =independent

variable: it represents the percentage of the total labor force that is

unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work. This

3

indicator is considered a lagging indicator, confirming but not foreshadowing

long-term market trends;

X2= The value of the monthly Inflation Rate (%) =independent

variable: it represents the rate at which the general level of prices for goods

and services is rising and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

between the monthly GDP and influencing factors such as: monthly

unemployment rate and monthly inflation rate. This relationship is important

for policy makers in order to obtain a sustainable rise in living standards. If

GDP growth rate is below its natural rate, it is indicated to promote

employment because this rise in total income will generate inflationary

pressures. In contrast, if the GDP growth rate is above its natural level, policy

makers will decide not to intensively promote the creation of new jobs in

order to obtain a sustainable growth rate which will not generate inflation.

II.

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Hyptothesis 1

On the internet, there are rumors that the U.S. monthly average

unemployment rate is 12%. In order to test this hypothesis, the sample is

gathered on 70 months, starting in January 2007 and ending in October

2012. The test on sample evidence was found to have a percentage of 7.7%

for a standard deviation of 1.96. For a confidence level of 95%, decide if the

assumption is in accordance with the result.

Step 1: Define the null hypothesis

H0: π = 12%; Null hypothesis

H1: π≠12%; Alternative hypothesis; two tail test.

The null hypothesis relies on the fact that the U.S. monthly average

unemployment rate is 12%.

The alternative hypothesis is that the U.S. monthly average unemployment

rate is different than 12%.

We are in the case of a two tail test.

Step2: Establish level of significance

Because the significance level is α= 95% and because we are using a two

sided test, the probability of committing a type 1 error goes both ways and

we will have two cut off values.

Step 3: Cut off values and Rejection Region

Cut-off values = ± 1.96

Rejection Region = ( - ∞; -1.96) U (1.96; ∞)

Step 4: Compute zcalculated.

4

x́−µ 7.7−12 −5 −5

Sample evidence−Claim = = =−21.73

Zcalc= = σ = 1.96 1.96 0.23

Standard Error

√n √ 70 8.36

-21.73>1.96.

Based on the sample evidence, we will reject the null hypothesis and we will

accept the alternative hypothesis in 95% of cases.

Step 7: According to the sample evidence, in 95% of cases, the U.S.

monthly average unemployment rate is different from 12%.

Hypothesis 2

The United States believes that the monthly average inflation rate for

all the 70 months, starting from January 2007 and ending in October 2012,

from the database is 2.16%, with a standard deviation of 1.75. There are

rumors that the U.S. monthly average inflation rate is 5%. Does this result

lend support to the United States’ opinion at 5% level of significance?

Step 1: Define the null and alternative hypotheses.

H0: π=2.16%

H1: π>2.16%

The null hypothesis is based on the fact that the U.S. monthly average

inflation rate calculated on 70 months is 2.16%.

The alternative hypothesis represents the fact that the U.S. monthly average

inflation rate calculated on 70 months is bigger than 2.16.

We are in the case of a right sided test.

Step 2: Set the significance level.

We set the significance level at 5%, so the probability to guarantee the

results is 95% of cases.

Step 3: Establish, according to the significance level, the cut-off

values, the Rejection Region (RR), and the Acceptance Region (AR).

Cut-off values = + 1.645

Rejection Region = (1.645; ∞)

Acceptance Region: (- ∞, 1.645]

5

Step 4: Compute Zcalculated:

Sample evidence−Claim = = =−13.58

Zcalc= = σ = 1.75 1.75 0.209

Standard Error

√n √70 8.36

belongs to the Acceptance Region: (- ∞, 1.645].

Step 6: Decision upon H0.

Based on the sample evidence, we will reject the alternative hypothesis in

95% of cases.

Step 7: According to the sample evidence, in 95% of cases, the U.S.

monthly average inflation rate is different from 2.16%.

III.

LINEAR SIMPLE REGRESSION

The GDP of a country varies a lot due to the fact that several factors

influence it. With the help of the available data, we will try to deduct the

influence of the independent variable (the monthly unemployment rate) over

the dependent variable (the monthly GDP).

The following data has been extracted from an Excel File, and by using

and analyzing it, our purpose is to find the regression equation, with the

following form: Y = α0 + α1*X+ε.

The first table called 'Summary Output' deals with the analysis of the

coefficient of correlation - Multiple R, the coefficient of determination - R

Square and the adjusted coefficient of determination - Adjusted R Square.

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.290097746

R Square 0.084156702

Adjusted R Square 0.070688419

Standard Error 0.567157441

Observations 70

Table 1. Summary Output.

the relationship between two or more variables and takes values between -1

and 1: the closer to 1, the stronger the relationship between the variables. In

6

our case, Multiple R=0.29, which represents a medium to low positive

correlation between the presented variables (<0.5).

The coefficient of determination (R square) is the proportion of

variability in a data set that is accounted for by the statistical model and it

provides a measure of how well future outcomes are likely to be predicted by

the model. In our case, R2=0.084, which means that 8.4% of the variation in

the value of GDP is explained by the independent variable taken into account

by the model (monthly unemployment rate), if all the other factors are

constant.

The coefficient of determination adjusted for degrees of

freedom (0.070 in our case) is a statistic that has been adjusted to take into

account the sample size as well as the number of independent variables. In

our case, if other factors of influence are determinants of monthly GDP, only

7% out of the monthly GDP variation is explained by monthly unemployment

rate.

The average difference between concrete monthly GDP values and

estimated/predicted monthly GDP values according to the linear function is

0.567 trillion dollars and this is represented in the table by the value of the

Standard error.

In order to test the validity of the model, by interpreting data from the

table called 'ANOVA table':

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

2.00994

Regression 1 2.009942898 3 6.24851 0.01484804

0.32166

Residual 68 21.87339425 8

Total 69 23.88333714

Table 2. ANOVA table for Simple Regression.

The model is a valid one due to the fact that Significance F (0.014) is

close to 0 (<0.05). This probability is the chance to state that the model is

valid when in reality is not, or there is a chance to wrongly reject the null

hypothesis on validity.

Defining hypothesis:

H0: All predicted monthly GDP values have the same value.

H1: In 95% of cases there are at least 2 estimated values for the monthly

GDP which are different.

7

The value of this statistics is calculated by Excel and we find its value

in the above table: F=6.24851.

The decision over the test:

A comparison is done between the F test calculated value and the

theoretical one for a significance level of 5%.

F calculated>F 5%,1,68 => It falls into the rejection region. The

chance to wrongly reject H0 is smaller than 5% and there is enough sample

evidence to reject H0 and to accept H1.

If the chance to wrongly reject H0 (Significance F = 0.014) is smaller

than α (0.05), the decision to reject H0 is correct and the model is valid.

Next, the analysis will be done for the following table's coefficients,

that will help us develop our model's equation:

Table 3

if there would not be a correlation between variables, then GDP will be

13.9171256 trillion dollars.

The slope is 0.086792594. This indicates a positive correlation between

the variables.

Using the 1st degree equation Y = α0 + α1*X+ε, the specific model for

the sample will be:

Monthly Unemployment rate + ε.

According to the equation, 1% more in the monthly unemployment rate

will induce a bigger monthly GDP with 0.086 trillion dollars on average. Also,

as the slope is greater than 0, we can say we have a direct correlation

between variables.

If the U.S. monthly unemployment rate increases, the U.S. monthly

GDP will also increase due to a growth in labor productivity. Also, the

efficiency of the employees grows faster than the monthly unemployment

rate. However, this is not a causal relation: an increase in the monthly GDP

will not generate an increase in the monthly unemployment rate, but it is an

observed stochastic relation. The monthly unemployment rate can increase

by firing inefficient employees.

In what concerns the Confidence Class, we have valid statements for

95% of cases. The confidence class does not comprise the value 0, and for

this reason the inference is possible. There is 95% chance for any slope to be

8

different from 0. It means that in 95% of cases we will correctly reject the

null hypothesis upon the slope.

In the variation of the monthly unemployment rate, the monthly GDP is

expected to be comprised between at least 0.0175 and at maximum 0.1560.

The P-value represents the computed risk to decide that the slope is

significantly different from 0 when in reality is 0. Because the P-value is lower

than 5%, there is a low risk to take wrong decisions. The probability to

commit Type 1 error is 0.01 (P-value) which is less than 5%.

correlation between the errors. It is a fan-effect and we compute the Durbin

Watson Statistics Test, a test used to detect the presence of autocorrelation

in the residuals from a regression analysis.

T

t =2

= =0.04

SSResidual 21.8733

autocorrelation

Residuals

f(x) = 0x + 0

R² = 0

In the U.S. Unemployment rate – Line Fit Plot chart, we can see that

there is a typical heteroscedastic model. The variance of the errors is

increasing, while the monthly unemployment rate increases. There is no

constant variance.

In real life, it will be chosen another relation between the monthly GDP

and the monthly unemployment rate of a country.

9

The U.S. Unemployment Rate % Line Fit Plot

GDP U.S

GDP U.S

Predicted GDP U.S

shown in the Normal Probability Plot chart, the errors are following a S-shape.

They are perfectly balanced or square surface (have a slight uniform

distribution). As we can observe in the graphic, there is a small skeweness to

the right (small errors). We have uniform errors and the normality of errors is

not severe affected.

GDP U.S

R² = 0.94

Sample Percentile

fit plot chart and the Residual plot chart.

IV.

LINEAR MULTIPLE REGRESSION

two independent variables, these being: the U.S monthly unemployment rate

and the U.S. monthly inflation rate. We wish to test if adding up these two

variables, the model changes in a certain way. If yes, this means that the

10

variables contribute decisively to the change in the value of monthly GDP.

We will start again the same analysis as for the simple regression:

As we can see from the image extracted from the Excel file, this is how

the regression model looks like. From the following available data, our

purpose is to find the regression equation, with the following form: Y = α0 +

α1*X1+ α2*X2+ ε.

The first table we are analyzing is called 'Summary Output' and deals with

the analysis of the coefficient of correlation - Multiple R, the coefficient of

determination - R Square and the adjusted coefficient of determination -

Adjusted R Square.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.59552604

R Square 0.354651264

Adjusted R Square 0.335387123

Standard Error 0.479631099

Observations 70

Table 5. Summary output for Multiple Regression.

the relationship between two or more variables and takes values between -1

and 1: the closer to 1, the stronger the relationship between the variables. In

our case, Multiple R=0.59, which is comprised between the values 0.5 and

0.75. This means that there is a medium to strong positive correlation.

The coefficient of determination (R square) is the proportion of

variability in a data set that is accounted for by the statistical model and it

provides a measure of how well future outcomes are likely to be predicted by

the model. In our case, R 2=0.3546, which means that 35.46% out of the

variation in the value of the monthly GDP is explained by the independent

variables taken into account by the model (the monthly unemployment rate

and the monthly inflation rate), while the other factors being constant.

The coefficient of determination adjusted for degrees of freedom

(0.3353 in our case) is a statistic that has been adjusted to take into account

the sample size as well as the number of independent variables. In our case,

if other factors of influence are determinants of the monthly GDP, only

33.53% out of the value of monthly GDP variation is explained by the

monthly unemployment rate and by the monthly inflation rate.

We can argue and compare the values obtained from the simple

regression and the ones obtained now, for the multiple one: as we can see,

Multiple R increased from 29% to 59%, the increase of 30% being due to the

inclusion of another variable, meaning the monthly inflation rate. We can

state that the second variable had a real impact on the change of the model.

11

Next, we wish to test the validity of the model, by interpreting data from

the table called 'ANOVA table':

Significance

df SS MS F F

18.4099180

Regression 2 8.470255713 4.235127857 7 4.24732E-07

Residual 67 15.41308143 0.230045991

Total 69 23.88333714

Table 5. ANOVA method for Multiple Regression.

(4.24732E-07) tends to 0. This probability is the chance to state that the

model is valid when in reality is not, or there is a chance to wrongly reject

the null hypothesis on validity.

Defining hypothesis:

H0: All predicted monthly GDP values have the same value.

H1: In 95% of cases there are at least 2 estimated values for the monthly

GDP which are different.

A comparison is done between the F test calculated value and the

theoretical one for a significance level of 5%.

F calculated>F 5%,2,67 => It falls into the rejection region. The

chance to wrongly reject H0 is smaller than 5% and there is enough sample

evidence to reject H0 and to accept H1.

If the chance to wrongly reject H0 (Significance F = 4.24732E-07 which

tends to 0) is smaller than α (0.05), the decision to reject H 0 is correct and the

model is valid.

the monthly inflation rate are 0 or if there is no correlation between

variables, then GDP will be 12.75164724 trillion dollars.

The first slope is 0.18079695. This indicates a positive correlation

between the monthly unemployment rate and GDP.

The second slope is 0.203683865. This indicates a positive correlation

between the monthly inflation rate and GDP.

12

Using the 1st degree equation Y = α0 + α1*X1+ α2*X2+ ε, the specific

model for the sample will be:

The predicted monthly GDP = 12.75 + 0.18*Predicted Monthly

Unemployment rate +0.20*Predicted Monthly Inflation Rate+ ε.

will induce a bigger monthly GDP with 0.18 trillion dollars on average. Also,

as the slope is greater than 0, we can say we have a direct correlation

between variables.

Also, 1% more in the monthly inflation rate will induce a bigger

monthly GDP with 0.2 trillion dollars on average. The slope of 0.2 is bigger

than 0 and there is also a direct correlation between variables.

A growth in the monthly unemployment rate and a growth in the

monthly inflation rate will both increase the level of the monthly GDP due to

labor productivity, respectively due to an increase in prices.

According to the Table 6, both confidence classes, in the case of

monthly unemployment rate and in the case of monthly inflation rate, do not

comprise the value 0. This means that in both cases, the chances for any

slope to be 0 are 5%. The inference is valid for both slopes and in reality we

have 2 correlations. In what concerns the Confidence Class, we have valid

statements for 95% of cases.

In the variation of the monthly unemployment rate, the monthly GDP is

expected to be comprised between at least 0.1123 and at maximum 0.2492,

while in the case of the monthly inflation rate, the monthly GDP is expected

to comprised in between at least 0.1269 and at most 0.2804.

The probability to commit Type 1 error in the case of the monthly

unemployment rate is 1.56284E-06 (P-value), value that tends to 0, which is

less than 5%. In the case of monthly inflation rate, the probability to commit

Type 1 error is represented by the P-value, which is 1.3973E-06 (also tends to

0).

Following, we will analyze the charts:

Like in the case of the monthly unemployment rate – residual plot, in

the monthly inflation rate – residual plot there is no correlation between

errors and it will be applied the Durbin Watson Statistic test.

T

∑ (e t −e t−1) ❑2❑

1.5196 belongs to (0;0.95) => positive autocorrelation

t =2

==0.09

SSResidual 15.413

According to the result obtained after applying the Durbin Watson test,

the model is affected by positive autocorrelation.

13

The U.S. Inflation Rate % Residual Plot

Residuals

The U.S. Inflation Rate %

In the Line fit plot char presented below, we can see that the model is

affected by heteroscedasticity. The variance of the errors is increasing, while

the monthly inflation rate increases, as in the case of monthly

unemployment rate. So, there is no constant variance.

GDP U.S

GDP U.S

that several of the independent variables are closely linked in some way.

Once the collinear variables are identified, it may be helpful to study whether

there is a causal link between the variables. The simplest way to resolve

multicollinearity problems is to reduce the number of collinear variables until

there is only one remaining out of the set. Sometimes, after some study it

may be possible to identify one of the variables as being extraneous.

Alternatively, it may be possible to combine two or more closely related

variables into a single input.

According to this test for the sample data of 70 months, we do not

have to worry about multicollinearity if the R-squared from the multiple

14

regression output (0.35) exceeds the R-squared of any independent variable

regressed on the other independent variables (0.26).

V.

CONCLUSION

unemployment rate and the inflation rate represents a critical issue and are

used to gauge the state of an economy.

GDP and the unemployment rate are linked in the sense that a rise in

GDP is significant in the study of macroeconomic trends in a nation. This is

also true of a rise or decrease in unemployment levels. GDP and

unemployment rate usually go together because a rise in the rate of

unemployment is reflected in an increase in GDP, due to the fact that there is

an increase in consumer demand for goods and services. Such a rise in both

GDP and employment levels is an indication that the economy is booming

GDP and the inflation rate are also influencing each other. For example,

in a situation in which the inflation reaches a high level, the companies are

perceiving their prices to be higher than normal. The GDP goes up even more

because inflation causes the dollar to be worth less meaning everything

costs more and on the top of that more is being produced because firms

think their products have increased in price relative to other prices.

One of the reasons U.S. is able to claim that GDP is growing is that the

Fed and U.S. Government are “fudging” the inflation statistics through the

use of “hedonic adjustments”, “substitution” and other methodologies, which

make the inflation rate look smaller than it actually is. Therefore, because a

smaller percentage gets subtracted out of the total value of exchanged

goods and services, it looks like as if GDP is growing (or growing faster than

it actually is).

VI.

ANEXES

The U.S. Inflation

Month/Year (trillion U.S. Unemployment

Rate %

dollars) Rate %

Jan-07 13.71 4.6 2.08

Feb-07 13.86 4.5 2.42

15

Mar-07 13.8 4.4 2.78

Apr-07 13.98 4.5 2.57

May-07 14.02 4.5 2.69

Jun-07 14.03 4.5 2.69

Jul-07 14.04 4.6 2.36

Aug-07 14.15 4.6 1.97

Sep-07 14.29 4.7 2.76

Oct-07 14.22 4.7 3.54

Nov-07 14.27 4.7 4.31

Dec-07 14.38 5 4.08

Jan-08 14.41 4.9 4.28

Feb-08 14.25 4.8 4.03

Mar-08 14.33 5.1 3.98

Apr-08 14.39 5 3.94

May-08 14.43 5.5 4.18

Jun-08 14.6 5.5 5.02

Jul-08 14.58 5.7 5.6

Aug-08 14.45 6.1 5.37

Sep-08 14.42 6.1 4.94

Oct-08 14.31 6.5 3.66

Nov-08 14.28 6.7 1.07

Dec-08 13.99 7.2 0.09

Jan-09 14.07 7.6 0.03

Feb-09 14.06 8.1 0.24

Mar-09 14.02 8.5 -0.38

Apr-09 14.04 8.9 -0.74

May-09 14.06 9.4 -1.28

Jun-09 13.86 9.5 -1.43

Jul-09 13.85 9.4 -2.1

Aug-09 13.94 9.7 -1.48

Sep-09 13.97 9.8 -1.29

Oct-09 14.14 10.1 -1.3

Nov-09 14.08 9.9 -0.2

Dec-09 14.04 9.9 1.8

Jan-10 14.2 9.7 2.7

Feb-10 14.27 9.8 2.6

Mar-10 14.36 9.8 2.1

Apr-10 14.6 9.9 2.3

May-10 14.48 9.6 2.2

Jun-10 14.45 9.4 2

Jul-10 14.54 9.5 1.1

Aug-10 14.55 9.6 1.2

Sep-10 14.64 9.5 1.1

16

Oct-10 14.71 9.5 1.1

Nov-10 14.69 9.8 1.2

Dec-10 14.81 9.3 1.1

Jan-11 14.72 9.1 1.5

Feb-11 14.74 9 1.6

Mar-11 14.99 8.9 2.1

Apr-11 15.04 9 2.7

May-11 15.04 9 3.2

Jun-11 14.93 9.1 3.6

Jul-11 15.13 9 3.6

Aug-11 15.21 9 3.6

Sep-11 15.14 9 3.8

Oct-11 15.38 8.9 3.9

Nov-11 15.29 8.6 3.5

Dec-11 15.29 8.5 3.4

Jan-12 15.42 8.3 3

Feb-12 15.55 8.3 2.9

Mar-12 15.46 8.2 2.9

Apr-12 15.54 8.1 2.7

May-12 15.59 8.2 2.3

Jun-12 15.65 8.2 1.7

Jul-12 15.81 8.2 1.7

Aug-12 15.77 8.1 1.4

Sep-12 15.86 7.8 1.7

Oct-12 15.81 7.9 2

Table 7. Database

17

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