Statistical Thinking and Future Trend - ENCIETY - 25112013 - Update PDF

Enciety Business Consult
November 2013
Statistics, Statistical Thinking and

Future Trend
Prepared for : Statistika ITS
Statistical Thinking Everywhere
Sources : Mission and Vision of ASQ Statistics Division

2
Marketers Need To Know
“How buyers respond to the various
marketing stimuli that the organization
might use?”
They need to know:
WHO buys?
WHERE do they buy?
HOW do they buy?
WHY do they buy?
WHAT do they buy?
WHEN do they buy?
Sources : Marketing Management, Customer Analysis, Needs/Values, Elizabeth Stearns,
University of Washington EMBA Program 3
The New Marketing Landscape: Major Development
• Digital age (Information, Entertainment,

Communication)
• Globalization
• Ethics and social responsibility
• Not-for-profit marketing (Colleges, Hospitals,
Museums, Zoos, Orchestras, Religious
groups)
Sources : Principles of Marketing, Marketing: Managing Profitable Customer

Relationships, Ronald Heimler, President, Walter Heimler, Inc. 4
The Internet Changes Everything
Sellers Buyers
in Before Net After Net in
control control
Price complexity Price transparency
Limited alternatives Choice
Broad Segmentation Customer Personalization
Physical Speed Virtual Speed
Meaningful entry Low entry

barriers barriers
Geographic Virtual
communities communities
Sources : Key Strategies for Winning in the New Economy, Vance Williams
LaVelle, Senior Vice President, Chase , May 1, 2000 5
Paradigm Shift
Analogues
Digital
Immigrants
Digital
Natives
Source: Prensky, (2001)
Sources : U-Learning: Education for a Mobile Generation , Steve Wheeler, Faculty of

Education, University of Plymouth 6
Years to reach an audience of 50 Million
• Radio – 38 years
• Television – 13 years
• The Internet – 4 years
• Apple iPod – 3 years
• Facebook – 2 years
• ???
Sources : New Pedagogies for the Digital Age, Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2010
7
Economic Sectoral and Retail Business Market – East Java
Market Economic
Penetration Generator
Industri 42,21 37,05
Perdagangan, Hotel, Restoran 37,2 30,87
Jasa - Jasa 34,69 25,97
Pertambangan 23,8 18,02
Pertanian 21,3 17,20
Jawa Timur 30,14 24,6
Sources : Enciety Business Consult, Desk research, 2012

8
Technographic Level and Retail Business Market – East Java
R2 = 77,2%
42,2
Market Penetration (%)
30,2
22,7
12,8
LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH

Mean = 5,50% Mean = 8,65% Mean = 12,18% Mean = 20,89%
Job Sector
Formal Informal
Sources : Enciety Business Consult, Desk research, 2012

9
Demographic Environment
Worldwide Population Growth
Population Age Mix
Ethnic Markets
Educational Groups
Household Patterns
Geographical Shifts in Population
Shift from Mass Market to Micromarkets
Sources : Marketing Management, Customer Analysis, Needs/Values, Elizabeth Stearns,

University of Washington EMBA Program 10
Demographic Trends
Demography is the study of population size, growth and age structure, and of the
forces that lead to population change (fertility, mortality, migration)
Global Population Growth & Projections
Source: UNDP
Global populations are expected to grow from current levels of almost 7 billion to
over 9 billion by 2050 (UN)
Sources : Demographic Challenges & Investment Opportunities: Which companies are best
positioned to tackle demographic challenges?, SRI Roadshow, May 2011 12
Demographic Trends Annual population
growth by major region,
Geographical Breakdown millions
– By 2050, 86% of the world’s population

(almost eight billion people) will be
concentrated in less developed regions
of the world Source: SocGen, 2007
Population aged 60
Age Structure or over between
1950-2050, millions
– By 2050, approx. two billion people will

be aged 60 or over
Source: UN, 2009
Population
Urbanisation living in urban
areas, %
– By 2050, 6.3 billion people are expected

to live in urban areas
Source: UN,
2006
Challenges Posed by Demographic Changes
Changes in the Workforce
Working age population to total population, %

Skills shortages will primarily be
present in:
Developing countries where
educational shortfalls may exist
Developed markets where a
significant proportion of the working
population nears retirement age, with
little prospect of worker replacement
Source: UN Population Database & Bank of America/ML, 2011
Changes in the Consumer Base
• Increasing product and service Worldwide, over three quarters of the population are low-
needs for: income
Low-income consumers in
developing markets
Consumers with higher NEEDS A GRAPHIC
disposable incomes in all HERE
markets
Ageing populations in developed
markets * PPP – Purchasing Power Parity
Source: AT Kearney
Increasing Pressure on Resources and the Environment
Population growth leads to rising

• Ability to provide products and services consumption and increasing pressure on
scarce resources
which lessen impacts on resource
depletion and environmental
degradation are key
• If current consumption rates continue,

by 2050 a global population of over
nine billion will require the biological
capacity of two Earths
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010
Top 10 Most Populace Countries: 2000
• China 1.2 Billion

• India 1.0 Billion
• USA 276 Million
• Indonesia 212 Million
• Brazil 170 Million
• Pakistan 151 Million
• Russia 145 Million
• Bangladesh 128 Million
• Japan 127 Million
• Nigeria 123 Million
Sources : Back To The Future: 2020 – 2050, Peter Mark Shaw, Professor of
Business & Economics, Tidewater Community College 17
Top 10 Most Populace Countries: 2050
2050
• India 1.6 Billion

• China 1.3 Billion
• USA 404 Million
• Indonesia 312 Million
• Nigeria 304 Million
• Pakistan 285 Million
• Brazil 244 Million
• Bangladesh 211 Million
• Ethiopia 188 Million
• Democratic
Republic of Congo
(Zaire) 182 Million
Indonesia 2000
Population Pyramid
Male Female
19
Indonesia 2050
Population Pyramid
Male Female
20
Analytic Maturity Levels
Sources : Desire2Learn, Advanced Learning Analytics, Ronald Mol

21
THE BILLIONAIRES’ INDEX
Sources : 2050 Hindsight, CFA Society Seattle, Lawrence Speidell, Chief Investment
Officer, CEO Frontier Market Asset Management, April 2013 22
DAYS TO START A NEW BUSINESS
Today’s World:
Argentina:
26 days to start a business
Brazil:
119 days to start a
business
Indonesia :
Sources : 2050 Hindsight, CFA Society Seattle, Lawrence Speidell, Chief Investment
Officer, CEO Frontier Market Asset Management, April 2013 23
Year 2020
The Critical Social Support System that will be Managed
/Regulated Globally
Energy
Food
Resources
Environment
New Constraints & Opportunities

Sustainable Economic Development is Driving Force
Future Business Implications: 2020 - 2050
• Global Enterprise Will Not Resemble Present Day Counterparts
• Global Information Technology At Core Of Opportunities
• Global Enterprise Sustainability Becomes Key Focus
• Global Enterprises Will Have Fewer, Smarter Employees
• Flatter Global Organization Structures
• Global Employee Mindset and Skills
• Global Business Alliance/Relationships Predominate
Future Business Implications: 2020 - 2050
• Managers Must Know More Foreign Languages
• Management Must Have Knowledge of Foreign Cultures, Politics &

Economy
• Management Must Know Global Aspects of Business
• Global Business Strategy is Key
• Keys To Success:
- Global Commitment/Orientation
- Global Customer Orientation
- Global Total Quality Delivery
- Global Flexibility (distribution, production, etc.)
- Global Creativity (i.e., R & D, product development)
Lifestyles & Diseases: 15 Leading Causes of Death & Disability
1990 2020
1. Pneumonia & Bronchitis Coronary Heart Disease

2. Diarrheal Diseases Severe Depression
3. Conditions arousing around birth Road Traffic Accidents
4. Severe Depression Stroke
5. Coronary Heart Disease Chronic Bronchitis/Emphysema
6. Stroke Pneumonia & Bronchitis
7. Tuberculosis Tuberculosis
8. Measles War Injuries
9. Road Traffic Accidents Diarrheal Diseases
10. Defects From Before Birth HIV
11. Malaria Conditions arousing around birth
12. Chronic Bronchitis Injuries From Violence
13. Falls Defects From Before Birth
14. Iron-Deficiency Anemia Self-Inflicted Injuries
15. Malnutrition Trachea/Bronchus/Lung Cancer
Super Seven Prediction
1. Number of world currencies reduced from 164 to the “Big 3”
Dollar Euro Yen
2. Multinational Enterprises move faster than governments to
to promote economic development
3. Educational structures to change dramatically:
- technology will allow educating at a earlier age
- advanced educational courses being offered at lower schools
- technology simulation in every subject matter
4. Knowledge Worker will the best paid
5. Massive Global Labor Migration
6. Serious Cultural/Economic/Political Problems in World #3
7. The “Big 4 Regional Global Economies” : North/Central/South

Americas, Euro Nations, Middle East/Africa, Asia & Australia
Customer Lifetime Value
Reaching new customers;

increasing lifetime value
More efficient paths to obtain

customers; lower costs to service them
Collapsing costs from time and distance

in creating products and services
Reducing proprietary IT infrastructure

and its support; lowering capital
consumption
Sources : ANYWHERE: how global connectivity will transform the enterprise, Emily Nagle
Green, President & CEO, Yankee Group 29
Managers Versus Leaders
Manager Leader
Responds to change: reactive Creates & shapes change: proactive
Future-taker: path-taker: change-taker Future-maker: path-maker: change-maker
Cautious about risk Careful about risk

Does the thing right Does the right thing
Guided by fate Guided by destiny
Controls actions and events Facilitates actions and events
Works in the organisation Works on the organisation
Prophet: informed & motivated by Visionary: informed & motivated by
understanding & predicting trends, and imagining the future & the future self,
asking why? and asking why not?
Probable-futurist: asks what will the Preferred-futurist: asks what
future be like? should/could the future be like?
Problem-centred strategist Mission-directed strategist
• Sources : Designing 2050: Creating 21st century sustainable prosperity , Concepts bank and tool
kit, Peter Ellyard, Preferred Futures Institute, 9 March 2012 30
The 6 Cs of the leaders heart : What the leader in us is:
1. Confident : having self belief but without hubris

2. Courageous: going where others dare not,
overcoming self interested opposition
3. Committed: doing what must be done, being
assertive not aggressive
4. Considerate: listening and responding to the
opinions and views of others
5. Courteous: showing respect in conversation
6. Compassionate: responding with empathy to
victims/disadvantaged
Planning with data, information, knowledge and wisdom
Data + purpose = Information
Information + culture = Knowledge.

The same Information embedded in different cultures
becomes different knowledge. Describe your own working
culture.
Knowledge + experience + reflection = Wisdom
What proportion each of information ,knowledge and
wisdom respectively do you use in your work?
Emerging Technologies
Sources : Customer Focused Innovation: Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Create Customer Value,
Fidelity Center for Applied Technology 33
Strategy Map articulates how we plan to
deliver business results
Investors Improved
Fidelity Enterprise B2B Clients
Client
Improved
Better Investing Experience Improved Greater Improved
Results Efficiency Agility & Capabilities Competitiveness
&
Scalability
Satisfaction
Connect & Communicate Identify New Ideas & Create Actionable Develop/ Deliver & Scale
Technologies Concepts Implement Pilots
Executive Thought
Emerging Tech
Process and Operations
Briefing Leadership
Process Research Graduation/
Conceptual Proof of Transition
Prototyping Concept Process
Global Technology Idea Process Process
Seminar Operations/ Management
Management
Series Production
External Partnership
Sales/Relationship Management Concept
Mgmt Support Fidelity Labs
Playbook Next
Deployment Generation
Relationship Benchmarking Development
Management
Innovation Process Management
Special Interest
Group
Leadership Technology Consumer Forum
Skills Knowledge Culture

Collaboration Agile
Skills, Knowledge
Behavioral Energy &

Analysis Economics Environmen Curious
Innovative
& Culture
Design t Syndication
Innovation Data Experimental Client-focused
Research Complexity Theory
Mining
Data Infrastructure Pragmatic Externally
Development Visualization Advanced oriented
Multimedia Efficacy
Sources : Customer Focused Innovation: Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Create Customer Value,
Fidelity Center for Applied Technology 34
Supply Chain Activities
Sources : Supply Chain Simplification, Digital, 2013, Principality Consulting

35
Statistical Thinking for Business Process Improvement
Hoerl and Snee (2002) provide a generic framework for any process, which they refer to as
the SIPOC model, an acronym for its components, which are as follows:
• Suppliers are individuals or groups who provide the inputs to the process
• Inputs are materials or information that flow from the supplier
• Process steps are activities that transform inputs into outputs
• Outputs are the product or service that is produced by the process
• Customers are the individuals or groups who use the outputs
Sources : (1) It’s All About Variation: Improving Your Business Process with Statistical Thinking —
Revised 2012, Robert N. Rodriguez, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC (2) UML Business Process Model 36
Statistical Thinking for Business Process Improvement
Process for Lending Decision
Variability is present at each step. At the input step, the consumers who apply for credit
vary in their characteristics and in their options for obtaining credit elsewhere. While
product rates are controlled by the lender, external factors are not, and these include rates
available at other banks. The lender uses information about the consumer along with
models, such as credit scores, to determine the rate for the loan. This decision is subject to
variability because the models are based on historic data, which are an imprecise predictor
of the future. The output of the process is the performance of the loan, which can vary due
to changes in the economy, industry rates and terms, and legislation.
Sources : (1) It’s All About Variation: Improving Your Business Process with Statistical Thinking —
Revised 2012, Robert N. Rodriguez, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC (2) UML Business Process Model 37
The Role of Statistical Thinking in TQM
Baldrige Award scoring system is based on three elements:

• Approach (systematic approach, notion of process, use of appropriate tools)
• Deployment (all process)
• Results (measurement concepts of variation)
38
The Role of Statistics in Critical Thinking
• Statistical thinking involves applying

rational thought and the science of
statistics to critically assess data and
inferences.
Sources : McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 1: Statistics, Data and Statistical
Thinking 39
Statistical Thinking
A philosophy of learning and action :

All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes
Variation exists in all processes
Understanding and reducing variation are the keys to
success
Glossary of Statistical Terms, Quality Press (1996)
Sources : Statistical Thinking, Systems Thought and Mental Models, Vinay P. Kulkarni, M.S.Candidate,
Industrial Engineering Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, 2002 40
Sources : Wild, C.J. and Pfannkuch, M. (1999) "Statistical thinking in empirical enquiry"
(with discussion). International Statisitical Review, 67, 221-266. 41
Sources : Pfannkuch, M., Regan, M., Wild, C. and Horton, N.J. (2010) Telling Data Stories: Essential
Dialogues for Comparative Reasoning.Journal of Statistics Education, 18(1). 42
Statistics is a discipline which is concerned

with:
• designing experiments and other data
collection,
• summarizing information to aid
understanding,
• drawing conclusions from data, and
• estimating the present or predicting the
future.
43
Words and Phrases in Creative
Creative Thinking Objectives
• Produce … • Design an original …

…many possible (ideas for …ways to …) • Adapt or modify …
… at least three (five…) … • Elaborate on or add details to …
• Identify changes that might .. • Identify ways to change …
• Transform … • Explore ways to increase the efficiency or
effectiveness of …
• Make predictions about…
• Make an original model or representation
• Hypothesize … of …
• Identify connections or relationships • Describe ways to simplify, eliminate,
between …(or among…) reverse, or rearrange …
• Describe possible consequence of… • Propose new ways to combine or
• Represent <any concept> in variety of synthesize
ways (modes; formats) • Substitute, use or do in a different way..
• Describe what might happen if…
• Indentify unusual connections between …
Generating Ideas, divergent, lateral thinking, possibilities, idea generation, intuition, suspended judgement
44
Words and Phrases in Critical
Critical Thinking Objectives
• Analyze … (identify the key parts of …) • Verify …

• Compare (2 or more) … • Deduce (make deductions)…
• Contrast … • Make and support inferences (infer) …
• Justify or evaluate (using internal or • Distinguish or differentiate among …
external criteria ) …
• Assess…
• Rank or prioritize several options …
• Make and defend a decision to …
• Group or cluster various options
• Describe a classification system or scheme
• Organize and present data … for …
• Indentify pluses, minuses of … • Describe the unique feature of …
• Refine, improve, develop, or strengthen … • Summarize …
• Substantiate or document … • Reorginize failures, flaws, or propaganda …
• Construct, present and defend …
Analysing ideas, convergent, vertical thinking, probabilities, evaluation / critique, logic / reason, judgement
45
Why Study Statistics
• Statistical knowledge gives a company a competitive
advantage against organizations that cannot understand
their internal or external market data.
• Mastery of basic statistics gives an individual manager, a

competitive advantage as one works one’s way through the
promotion process, or when one moves to a new employer.
• Here are some reasons to study statistics.
Communication
Understanding the language of statistics facilitates communication

and improves problem solving.
Computer Skills
The use of spreadsheets for data analysis and word processors or

presentation software for reports improves upon your existing skills.
Sources : Applied Statistics in Business & Economics, 3rd edition, David P. Doane and Lori E.
Seward, Prepared by Lloyd R. Jaisingh, The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2011 47
Information Management
Statistics help summarize large amounts of data and reveal

underlying relationships.
Technical Literacy
Career opportunities are in growth industries propelled by

advanced technology. The use of statistical software increases
your technical literacy.
Career Advancement
Statistical literacy can enhance your career mobility.
Process Improvement
Statistics helps firms oversee their suppliers, monitor their

internal operations and identify problems.
Statistical Challenges
Skills Needed for Success in Business
Where there is science ...
There is:
Measurement
Data
Variation
Statistics
Sources : Six Tools for Common Cause Variability Reduction for Pharmaceutical QA/QC and
Manufacturing, Lynn Torbeck, Torbeck and Assoc. 51
Measurement is the Essence of Science
“When you can, count.”

Francis Galton (1822-1911) First cousin to Charles Darwin.
“When you can measure what you are speaking

about, and express it in numbers, you know
something about it; but when you cannot measure it,
when you cannot express it in numbers, your
knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind …”
Lord Kelvin, 1883.
Statistical Thinking: An Approach to Management
"To compete and win, we must redouble our efforts - not only in the
quality of our goods and services, but in the quality of our thinking, in
the quality of our response to customers, in the quality of our decision
making, in the quality of everything we do.“
E.S. Woolard, Chairman and CEO, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.
ASQC Newsletter, Feb. 1991
"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship

as the ability to read and write.“
H G Wells
Formal and Informal Learning
Formal Learning Informal Learning
30%
70%
Sources : New Pedagogies for the Digital Age, Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2010
54
What should we be prepared for the future?
“The best way to predict the future is to create it”

Peter Ferdinand Drucker
19 November 1909 – 11 November 2005, An Austrian Born

Management Consultant, Educator and Author, University of Frankfurt
References (1)
• Marketing Management, Customer Analysis, Needs/Values, Elizabeth Stearns, University of
Washington EMBA Program
• Desire2Learn, Advanced Learning Analytics, Ronald Mol
• 2050 Hindsight, CFA Society Seattle, Lawrence Speidell, Chief Investment Officer, CEO Frontier
Market Asset Management, April 2013
• Back To The Future: 2020 – 2050, Peter Mark Shaw, Professor of Business & Economics,
Tidewater Community Colleg
• Applied Statistics in Business & Economics, 3rd edition, David P. Doane and Lori E. Seward,
Prepared by Lloyd R. Jaisingh, The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2011
• Principles of Marketing, Marketing: Managing Profitable Customer Relationships, Ronald
Heimler, President, Walter Heimler, Inc.
• McClave, Statistics, 11th ed. Chapter 1: Statistics, Data and Statistical Thinking
• Demographic Challenges & Investment Opportunities: Which companies are best positioned
to tackle demographic challenges?, SRI Roadshow, May 2011
• ANYWHERE: how global connectivity will transform the enterprise, Emily Nagle Green,
President & CEO, Yankee Group
56
References (2)
• Key Strategies for Winning in the New Economy, Vance Williams LaVelle, Senior Vice President,
Chase , May 1, 2000
• Building futures thinking and methods into research agenda planning, Professor Niki Ellis, CEO,
Institute for Safety, Compensation and Recovery Research (ISCRR), Australian Health and
Hospitals Association - HEALTHCON 2010, 23 September 2010
• Designing 2050: Creating 21st century sustainable prosperity , Concepts bank and tool kit, Peter
Ellyard, Preferred Futures Institute, 9 March 2012
• Customer Focused Innovation: Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Create Customer Value,
Fidelity Center for Applied Technology
• Six Tools for Common Cause Variability Reduction for Pharmaceutical QA/QC and
Manufacturing, Lynn Torbeck, Torbeck and Assoc.
• Statistical Thinking, Systems Thought and Mental Models, Vinay P. Kulkarni, M.S.Candidate,
Industrial Engineering Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, 2002
57
References (3)
• New Pedagogies for the Digital Age, Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2010
• Supply Chain Simplification, Digital, 2013, Principality Consulting
• Wild, C.J. and Pfannkuch, M. (1999) "Statistical thinking in empirical enquiry" (with
discussion). International Statisitical Review, 67, 221-266.
• ITU-T Workshop on Bridging the Standardization Gap and Interactive Training Session , Nadi,
Fiji, 4 – 6 July 2011 ), Standardization roadmap in Korea, Duck-joong Jeon, TTA
• U-Learning: Education for a Mobile Generation , Steve Wheeler, Faculty of Education,
University of Plymouth
• Putting the World into World-Class Education: Innovations and Opportunities, Vivien Stewart
Vice President, Education Asia Society
• Pfannkuch, M., Regan, M., Wild, C. and Horton, N.J. (2010) Telling Data Stories: Essential
Dialogues for Comparative Reasoning.Journal of Statistics Education, 18(1).
• It’s All About Variation: Improving Your Business Process with Statistical Thinking — Revised
2012, Robert N. Rodriguez, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC
• Hoerl, R. W. and Snee, R. D. (2002), Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance,
Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole.
58
Profiles
Unung Istopo Hartanto
Marketing Research and Planning, Customer and Citizen Satisfaction, System Design,
Statistical Model, Statistics Visualization and Dashboard
Job Enciety Business Consult, Data Mining Manager, 2000 – Now

Widya Kartika University Surabaya, Adjunct Lecturer, 2002 – 2003
Position LPM Universitas Negeri Jember, P2KP, Database Administrator, 1999
Experiences Adaro, Statistics Training for Managers, 2013

Telkom Indonesia, CLV Training, 2013
Sampoerna, Forecasting & Time Series Modeling, 2012
Telkom Indonesia, Desk Research, 2012
Intiland, Property Research, 2012
MPM Honda, Statistics Visualization and Dashboard, 2012
Bank Indonesia, Spatial Econometrics Training, 2012
Mataram Paint – Emco, Statistics Visualization and Dashboard, 2011
Statistics Dept. ITS Surabaya, Structural Equation Model Training, 2010
Petrokimia Gresik, Customer Satisfaction Training, 2010
Education Sarjana Statistika, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, 2000
59
Terima Kasih
Jl. Manyar Tirtoyoso Utara V No. 7 Surabaya – Indonesia (60117)

Telp. 031 – 599 2340 Faks. 031 – 599 4230
Email : secretary@enciety.com
www.enciety.com

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Enciety Business Consult

Statistics, Statistical Thinking and

Sources : Mission and Vision of ASQ Statistics Division

• Digital age (Information, Entertainment,

Sources : Principles of Marketing, Marketing: Managing Profitable Customer

Limited alternatives Choice

Broad Segmentation Customer Personalization

Physical Speed Virtual Speed

Meaningful entry Low entry

Sources : U-Learning: Education for a Mobile Generation , Steve Wheeler, Faculty of

Perdagangan, Hotel, Restoran 37,2 30,87

Jasa - Jasa 34,69 25,97

Pertambangan 23,8 18,02

Pertanian 21,3 17,20

Jawa Timur 30,14 24,6

Sources : Enciety Business Consult, Desk research, 2012

LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH

Sources : Enciety Business Consult, Desk research, 2012

Population Age Mix

Geographical Shifts in Population

Shift from Mass Market to Micromarkets

Sources : Marketing Management, Customer Analysis, Needs/Values, Elizabeth Stearns,

– By 2050, 86% of the world’s population

– By 2050, approx. two billion people will

– By 2050, 6.3 billion people are expected

Changes in the Workforce

Working age population to total population, %

Source: UN Population Database & Bank of America/ML, 2011

Changes in the Consumer Base

Increasing Pressure on Resources and the Environment

Population growth leads to rising

• If current consumption rates continue,

Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010

• China 1.2 Billion

• India 1.6 Billion

Sources : Desire2Learn, Advanced Learning Analytics, Ronald Mol

New Constraints & Opportunities

• Global Enterprise Will Not Resemble Present Day Counterparts

• Global Information Technology At Core Of Opportunities

• Global Enterprise Sustainability Becomes Key Focus

• Global Enterprises Will Have Fewer, Smarter Employees

• Flatter Global Organization Structures

• Global Employee Mindset and Skills

• Global Business Alliance/Relationships Predominate

• Managers Must Know More Foreign Languages

• Management Must Have Knowledge of Foreign Cultures, Politics &

• Management Must Know Global Aspects of Business

• Global Business Strategy is Key

1. Pneumonia & Bronchitis Coronary Heart Disease

7. The “Big 4 Regional Global Economies” : North/Central/South

Reaching new customers;

More efficient paths to obtain

Collapsing costs from time and distance

Reducing proprietary IT infrastructure

Cautious about risk Careful about risk

1. Confident : having self belief but without hubris

Data + purpose = Information

Information + culture = Knowledge.

Skills Knowledge Culture

Behavioral Energy &

Sources : Supply Chain Simplification, Digital, 2013, Principality Consulting

Process for Lending Decision

Baldrige Award scoring system is based on three elements: