INTRODUCTION
Have alien intelligences from other parts of the universe visited the earth? This page
is an attempt to rationally look at the issue of UFO's and extraterrestrials. Within the
last few years, scientists have gained considerable knowledge about the universe so
that the question of extraterrestrial visitations can be addressed from a scientific,
rational perspective.
Scientists have been actively searching for extraterrestrial intelligence in our galaxy
for the last forty years. The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has
extended out to 40,000 light years from earth (in comparison, the galaxy is 100,000
light years across).2 To date, no signal from any extraterrestrial stellar system has
ever been detected.
The Drake Equation (named for Frank Drake, the originator of the equation) is a way
to estimate how many intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations might inhabit our
galaxy. Below is the Drake Equation:
N = R* x fs x fp x nE x fl x fi x fc x L
These are the values based upon the most recent astronomical data:
A most optimistic estimate for the number of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy is
150. This would mean that each intelligent civilization would be separated by an
average of 2,000 light years. Such vast distances make contact unlikely and finding
other advanced civilizations improbable. If these civilizations exist, they will not
detect our radio signals for another 1900 years. How will they even know we are
here? For information on how these results were calculated, see the appendix.
Enrico Fermi, a prominent nuclear physicist of the last century, asked the question,
"Where are they? Shouldn't their presence be obvious?" Given at least 10 billion
years for the existence of the Milky Way galaxy, one would think that intelligence
would have developed before now - if life were common in the universe. Even at slow
interstellar speeds, humans with advanced rocketry skills might be able to explore
the galaxy in a few tens of million years. Some have suggested that aliens would
choose not to reveal themselves to us. However, Frank Drake estimated that at least
10,000 advanced civilizations exist in the Milky Way. Carl Sagan raised the estimate
to 1,000,000. Would all those civilizations stay at home or choose to conceal
themselves from us? It seems highly unlikely. It would seem more likely that they do
not exist.
Obviously, our current rocket technology is incapable of providing the speed needed
to make interstellar travel realistic. Matter/anti-matter engines might provide the
power to accelerate near the speed of light. However, there is no way to contain or
generate large amounts of anti-matter. The only way that we have produced anti-
matter is through extremely large (miles across) particle accelerators. However, the
meager few anti-matter particles generated are rapidly destroyed through
interactions with ordinary matter. Nuclear power would provide a long-lived fuel
supply for interstellar travel. Even so, such fuel would last only tens of years before
being spent. Fusion power is yet to be harnessed, but, likewise, fuel would eventually
run out. According to Frank Drake, "To send a spacecraft the size of a small airliner
at one-tenth the speed of light requires as much energy as the US now produces in
more than a hundred years."3 In fact, the minimum amount of fuel required for such
a spacecraft is 100 tons (assuming that a fusion reactor converts mass into kinetic
energy at 100% efficiency).4 This does not sound practical to me!
Assuming that fuel and propulsion problems could be eventually solved, there are
other, more serious, problems to contend with. Traveling near the speed of light is
no simple problem. Running into small particles (like the size of a grain of sand)
would punch major holes in any spacecraft, due to the high speed of impact.
According to Frank Drake, "At relativistic speeds, even a collision with a particle of a
few grams results in something close in energy to a nuclear bomb blast. Not good
news for the space travelers."3 A major biological problem seldom mentioned in the
press is the blue shifting of the light from ordinary stars when traveling near the
speed of light. The Doppler effect of traveling at such speeds would blue shift
ordinary visible light all the way to the wavelength of gamma and x-rays. Shielding
gamma rays is next to impossible (they can even travel through many feet of solid
metal). When they do strike matter (like space traveler's bodies), the results are
devastating. This problem alone might restrict the speed of space travel to a small
fraction of the speed of light.
UFO believers would ask about Roswell, UFO sightings and alien abductions. The
problem I have with the whole Roswell/government conspiracy thing is that there is
not one piece of physical evidence. The government has never been able to keep any
kinds of secrets - much less over a period of 40 years. Regarding abductions, none of
the people involved have been shown to have any signs of tampering, which would
be readily apparent by MRI.
PBS has a good series on why scientists are skeptical about UFOs and abductions.
See the comments of
• Carl Sagan
• Paul Horowitz
• Philip Klass
CONCLUSION
This paper has shown that the probability of aliens visiting the earth is virtually zero.
Potential aliens in other galaxies are too far away to detect our presence (since radio
signals will not reach them for millions of years) and the travel times make
intergalactic travel impractical. Recent scientific studies demonstrate that the
universe is much less hospitable to life than it would seem from our unique Solar
System and planet. A large proportion of our galaxy is uninhabitable. Parts of it
would not even be expected to produce rocky planets. The highly unlikely collision
that produced our large moon prevented the earth from being a waterworld.5 It also
ejected the majority of our primordial atmosphere, which prevented the earth from
going through a runaway greenhouse effect similar to what happened to Venus, our
sister planet. Finally, our Solar System is unique in that it has large gas giants
located only in the outer regions. Other systems discovered have gas giants located
either near their star or in both inner and outer regions of their planetary system.
The presence of gas giants near the star would eject any rocky planets from orbit.
The presence of gas giants in the outer region of planetary systems is absolutely
necessary for the survival of advanced life forms. Without Jupiter, the number of
catastrophic collisions that the earth would experience would be at least 10,000
times greater. So instead of suffering massive species extinction events every 100
million years, the earth would experience these events every 10,000 years.6 Only
bacteria and other simple life forms would be able to survive this kind of
bombardment - no advanced life could ever form in the vast majority of planetary
systems. These problems indicate that there would be no more than 150 advanced
civilizations within our galaxy - and, more likely, we are completely alone in our
galaxy.
Interstellar space travel is much more difficult than indicated in movies and
television series, such as Star Trek and Star Wars and the like. First, it is not
possible to travel at speeds greater than the speed of light - the physics of the
universe prevent it. Second, traveling near the speed of light is impractical for
biological organisms. Collisions with particles even the size of a grain of sand would
be catastrophic. An even worse problem is that the light from ordinary stars would
be blue-shifted all the way to the gamma end of the spectrum when traveling near
the speed of light. These gamma rays would destroy all biological life - even if it
were in suspended animation (if that were possible). In essence, these problems
would restrict the speed of travel to well below the speed of light. The most
optimistic estimate for the presence of extraterrestrial civilizations would put them
2000 light years apart. With no intermediate habitable stopping points, space travel
over this distance would be impractical. So, even if we are not alone in this galaxy, it
would be highly unlikely that any extraterrestrial civilization could have visited us.
What about all the "evidence" for extraterrestrials and UFOs? See the links below for
more information.
Actual photo of aliens at Area 51
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Last Modified August 25, 2006
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