FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Newfoundland and
Labrador Election
Voter Intention Numbers
Best Premier Numbers
Is the Province on the right track?
15th May 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between May 13th to 14th, 2019
among a sample of 643 adults, 18 years of age
or older, living in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerical
available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.86% and
is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research is a
member of the World Association for Public Opinion
Research and the Market Research Intelligence
Association and meets international and Canadian
publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PCs AHEAD IN POPULAR VOTE IN ONE OF THE CLOSEST NL ELECTIONS EVER

15 May 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives have a four-point lead over the
governing Liberals in what is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in Newfoundland
and Labrador history.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Newfoundland and Labrador poll,
which surveyed 643 Newfoundland and Labrador residents between May 13th and May
14th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The PCs are leading in the popular vote but we are finding that their vote is inefficient,” said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Because of this, we can see Dwight
Ball winning the most seats tomorrow even though he looks set to lose the popular vote.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Ches Crosbie have 45.3%, while the
Liberals led by Dwight Ball come in with 41.2%. The NDP led by Alison Coffin have 7.7%,
while the NL Alliance with Graydon Pelley at the helm have 3.4%.

“The NDP have taken a big hit in support simply because they were unable to field a full slate
of candidates,” added Maggi. “This will play to the Liberals’ advantage as they will be the
only progressive option in most ridings outside of St. John’s.”

When asked who they thought would make the best premier, 35.3% said that they prefer
Crosbie, while 33.7% said they thought Ball would be the best premier.

However, when asked whether they thought the province was on the right track or not, 50.2%
said that it was on the wrong track while only 27.2% said that it was on the right track.

“How voters in Newfoundland and Labrador see these two issues indicate some indecision,”
concluded Maggi. “It could play to the Liberals’ advantage if voters go to the ballot box with
the party leaders at the front of their minds.”

“However, if they are more concerned about the general direction of the province, then that
would give an advantage to the PCs”.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

13%

1.8%
3.2%
36%

6.1%

All Voters

All Voters
Decided and Leaning
39.9%
Voters
13%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives 2.4%
NDP NL Alliance Another Party Undecided
3.4%
1.8% 7.7%
3.2%
36%

6.1%

41.2%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

45.3%
39.9%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP NL Alliance Another Party Undecided

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP NL Alliance Another Party

 7.8%
Which party leader do you think would make the best Premier?
11.2%
7.8%
33.7%

11.2%
4.3%
33.7%

4.3%
7.8%

7.8%

35.3%

35.3%

Dwight Ball Ches Crosbie Alison Co n Graydon Pelley None Of Them Undecided
Dwight Ball Ches Crosbie Alison Co n Graydon Pelley Neither of Them Undecided

All things considered, do you think that Newfoundland and

Labrador is on
22%
the right track or the wrong track?
27.8%

22%
27.8%

50.2%

50.2%

Right Track Wrong Track Not Sure

Right Track Wrong Track Not Sure
 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- St. Rest of
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 John's NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 36% 32.7% 39.2% 40% 31.5% 29.3% 45.4% 37.9% 35.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 39.9% 44.6% 35.5% 28.8% 41.6% 46.5% 40.3% 25.6% 43.6%
NDP led by Alison Co n 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 15.8% 4.3% 4.4% 1% 18.8% 2.9%
Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon
3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 5.1% 3.2% 1% 1% 3.7%
Pelley
Another Party 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% - 2.3%
Undecided 13% 11.3% 14.5% 10.4% 14.5% 14.7% 11.7% 16.6% 12%
Unweighted Frequency 643 303 340 71 144 230 198 167 476
Weighted Frequency 643 311 332 144 156 191 151 132 511

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

18- 35- 50- St. Rest of
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 John's NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 38.3% 33.9% 42.4% 40% 33.6% 32.7% 48.6% 39.9% 37.9%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 42.1% 47.5% 37.1% 31.5% 43.9% 47.9% 43.2% 27.6% 45.9%
NDP led by Alison Co n 7% 6.6% 7.4% 16.9% 4.3% 6.6% 1% 21.8% 3.2%
Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon
3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 5.1% 3.2% 1% 1% 3.7%
Pelley
Another Party 2.3% 2.6% 2% 1.6% 3.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.8% 2.6%
Undecided 7.1% 6.2% 7.9% 6.6% 10.1% 6.9% 4.75 8.9% 6.6%
Unweighted Frequency 643 303 340 71 144 230 198 167 476
Weighted Frequency 643 311 332 144 156 191 151 132 511

(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- St. Rest of
Total Male Female 65+
34 49 64 John's NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 41.2% 36.1% 45.9% 42.9% 37.4% 35.2% 51% 44% 40.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 45.3% 50.6% 40.3% 33.5% 48.8% 51.3% 45.2% 30.2% 49.2%
NDP led by Alison Co n 7.7% 7.2% 8.1% 18.4% 4.8% 7.1% 1.1% 23.8% 3.5%
Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon
3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 5.6% 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 4%
Pelley
Another Party 2.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 3.4% 2.9% 1.5% 0.9% 2.8%
Unweighted Frequency 598 283 315 66 129 215 188 153 445
Weighted Frequency 598 289 309 134 145 178 141 123 475
 Which party leader do you think would make the best Premier?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Dwight Ball 33.7% 28.4% 38.8% 30.3% 27.2% 33% 44.7% 33.6% 33.8%
Ches Crosbie 35.3% 39.6% 31.2% 28.3% 37% 37.4% 37.5% 28% 37.2%
Alison Co n 7.8% 9.9% 5.8% 15.8% 5.3% 7.4% 3.1% 14.3% 6.1%
Graydon Pelley 4.3% 4.7% 3.9% 8.2% 5.4% 3% 0.9% 1.3% 5%
None of Them 11.2% 12.6% 9.8% 11.8% 15.6% 12.2% 4.7% 16.6% 9.9%
Undecided 7.8% 4.8% 10.5% 5.6% 9.5% 6.9% 9.2% 6.9% 8%
Unweighted Frequency 643 303 340 71 144 230 198 167 476
Weighted Frequency 643 311 332 144 156 191 151 132 511

All things considered, do you think that Newfoundland and Labrador is on

the right track or the wrong track?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Right Track 27.8% 26.3% 29.2% 28.9% 17.4% 27.4% 37.8% 30.8% 27%
Wrong Track 50.2% 58.4% 42.6% 50.7% 63.4% 51.7% 34.4% 49% 50.6%
Not Sure 22% 15.3% 28.2% 20.4% 19.1% 20.9%% 27.8% 20.2% 22.4%
Unweighted Frequency 643 303 340 71 144 230 198 167 476
Weighted Frequency 643 311 332 144 156 191 151 132 511
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held None of Them
today, which party would you vote Undecided
for?
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and All things considered, do you think
Labrador led by Dwight Ball that Newfoundland and Labrador
Progressive Conservative Party of is on the right track or the wrong
Newfoundland and Labrador led by track?
Ches Crosbie Right Track
Newfoundland and Labrador New Wrong Track
Democratic Party led by Alison Coffin Not Sure
Another Party
Undecided What is your gender?
Male
And which party are you Female
leaning towards? (only asked of
respondents who were undecided What is your age group?
in previous question) 18 to 34 years of age
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and 35 to 49 years of age
Labrador led by Dwight Ball 50 to 64 years of age
Progressive Conservative Party of 65 years of age or older
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Alison Coffin
Another Party
Undecided

Which party leader do you think

would make the best Premier?
Dwight Ball
Ches Crosbie
Alison Coffin
Graydon Pelley
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between May 13th and 14th,
2019, among a sample of 643 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Newfoundland and Labrador.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.86% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.66%, Females: +/- 5.31%, 18-34
age group: +/- 11.63%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.17%, 50-64 age group: +/-6.46%, 65+ age group:
+/- 6.96%, St. John’s: +/- 7.58%, Rest of NL: +/- 4.49%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.