GraphPad Statistics Guide

One-tail vs. two-tail P values

When comparing two gr oups, you must distinguish between one- and two-tail P v alues. Some books r efer to
one-sided and two-sided P v alues, whic h mean the same thing.
What does one-tail mean?
It is easiest t o understand the distinction in context. So let’ s imagine that y ou are comparing the mean of
two groups (with an unpair ed t test). Bo th one- and two-tail P v alues are based on the same null hypothesis,
that two populations r eally are the same and that an obser ved discrepancy between sample means is due t o
chance.
A two-tailed P v alue answers this quest ion:
Assuming the null hypothesis is true, what is the chance that r andomly selected samples would ha ve
means as far apar t as (or fur ther than) y ou observed in this experiment with either gr oup having the
larger mean?
To interpret a one-tail P v alue, you must pr edict which gr oup will ha ve the larger mean befor e collecting any
data. The one-tail P v alue answers this question:
Assuming the null hypothesis is true, what is the chance that r andomly selected samples would ha ve
means as far apar t as (or fur ther than) obser ved in this experiment with the specified gr oup having the
larger mean?
If the obser ved difference went in the d irection predicted by the experimental hypothesis, the one-tailed P
value is half the two-tailed P v alue (with most, but not quite all, statistical tests ).
When is it appr opriate to use a one-tail P v alue?
A one-tailed test is appr opriate when pr evious data, physical limitations, or common sense tells y ou that the
difference, if any, can only go in one dir ection. You should only choose a one-tail P v alue when both of the
following ar e true.
• You predicted which gr oup will ha ve the larger mean (or pr oportion) before you collected any data. If y ou
only made the " prediction" after seeing the data, don't even think about using a one-tail P v alue.
• If the other gr oup had ended up with the lar ger mean – e ven if it is quite a bit lar ger – you would ha ve
attributed that diff erence to chance and called the diff erence 'not statistically significant'.
Here is an example in which y ou might appr opriately choose a one-tailed P v alue: You are testing whether a
new antibiotic impairs r enal function, a s measured by serum creatinine. Many antibiotics poison kidne y
cells, resulting in r educed glomerular filtr ation and incr eased serum cr eatinine. As far as I know , no antibiotic
is known to decrease serum cr eatinine, and it is har d to imagine a mechanism by which an antibiotic would
increase the glomerular filtr ation rate. Before collecting any data, y ou can state that ther e are two
possibilities: Either the drug will not change the mean serum cr eatinine of the population, or it will incr ease
the mean serum cr eatinine in the popul ation. You consider it impossible that the drug will truly decr ease
mean serum cr eatinine of the populatio n and plan t o attribute any obser ved decrease to random sampling.
Accordingly, it makes sense to calculat e a one-tailed P v alue. In this example, a two-tailed P v alue tests the
null hypothesis that the drug does not alter the cr eatinine level; a one-tailed P v alue tests the null hypothesis
that the drug does not incr ease the cr eatinine level.
The issue in choosing between one- and two-tailed P v alues is not whether or not y ou expect a diff erence to
exist. If you already knew whether or not ther e was a diff erence, there is no reason to collect the data.
Rather, the issue is whether the dir ection of a difference (if ther e is one) can only go one wa y. You should
 only use a one-tailed P v alue when y ou can state with cer tainty (and befor e collecting any data) that in the
overall populations ther e either is no diff erence or ther e is a difference in a specified dir ection. If your data
end up showing a diff erence in the “ wrong” direction, you should be willing t o attribute that diff erence to
random sampling without e ven conside ring the notion that the measur ed difference might r eflect a true
difference in the o verall populations. If a difference in the “ wrong” direction would intrigue y ou (even a little),
you should calculate a two-tailed P v alue.
 
How to convert between one- and two- tail P values
The one-tail P v alue is half the two-tail P value.
The two-tail P v alue is twice the one-tai l P value (assuming y ou correctly predicted the dir ection of the
difference).
 
 

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