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Notes for Stat-602 Lets start with a simple example.

Spring Semester 2019 A student is to roll a die and flip a coin.

How many possible outcomes will there be?

1H 2H 3H 4H 5H 6H

1T 2T 3T 4T 5T 6T 6*2 = 12 outcomes

Sets, Operations on sets, Venn Diagram 12 outcomes

Rules of Counting: Factorial, Permutation, Combination

Probability, Laws of Probability, Conditional Probability For a college interview, Ali/Alia has to

Random Variable, Mathematical Expectation choose what to wear from the following: 4

Probability Distributions (Discrete and Continuous) slacks, 3 shirts, 2 shoes and 5 ties. How

many possible outfits does he/she have to

choose from? 4*3*2*5 = 120 outfits

1 5

Fundamental Counting Principle

A Permutation is an arrangement of items in a

Fundamental Counting Principle can be used particular order.

determine the number of possible outcomes To find the number of Permutations of n items, we can

when there are two or more characteristics . use the Fundamental Counting Principle or factorial

notation.

Fundamental Counting Principle states that The number of ways to arrange the letters ABC:

____ ____ ____

if an event has m possible outcomes and 3 ____ ____

Number of choices for first blank?

another independent event has n possible

Number of choices for second blank? 3 2 ___

outcomes, then there are m* n possible

outcomes for the two events together. Number of choices for third blank? 3 2 1

3*2*1 = 6 3! = 3*2*1 = 6

4

ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA 6

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-2

Permutations Combinations

To find the number of Permutations of n items chosen r at a time,

you can use the formula

n! Practice: A basketball team consists of two centers, five forwards,

and four guards. In how many ways can the coach select a

n p r ( n r )! where 0 r n.

starting line up of one center, two forwards, and two

5! 5! guards?

Practice: 5 p3

( 5 3 )! 2!

5 * 4 * 3 60

Center: Forwards: Guards:

A combination lock will open when the right 2! 5! 5 * 4 4! 4 * 3

2C1 2 5 C2 10 4 C2 6

choice of three numbers (from 1 to 30, inclusive) 1 !1 ! 2!3! 2 * 1 2!2! 2 * 1

is selected. How many different lock C1 * 5 C 2 * 4 C 2

2

combinations are possible assuming no number is

repeated? Thus, the number of ways to select the

30 ! 30!

30 p3

( 30 3 )!

27!

30 * 29 * 28 24360 starting line up is 2*10*6 = 120.

7 9

A Combination is an arrangement of items in Random Experiment – a process leading to an

which order does not matter. uncertain outcome

Since the order does not matter in combinations, there are Basic Outcome – a possible outcome of a random

fewer combinations than permutations. experiment

The combinations are a "subset" of the permutations.

Sample Space – the collection of all possible

n! outcomes of a random experiment

To find the number of C where 0 r n .

n r r!(n r )! Event – any subset of basic outcomes from the

Combinations of nn

C3

time, you can use the 5

3! (5 3)! 3!2!

formula

5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 5 * 4 20

10

3 * 2 *1* 2 *1 2 *1 2

8 10

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-3

Important Terms

(continued) Examples

Intersection of Events – If A

and B are two events in a

S Let the Sample Space be the collection of all

sample space S, then the possible outcomes of rolling one die:

A AB

intersection, A Ç B, is the set of B

all outcomes in S that belong to

both A and B

Union of Events – If A S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

S

and B are two events in Let A be the event “Number rolled is even”

a sample space S, then

A B Let B be the event “Number rolled is at least 4”

the union, A U B, is the

set of all outcomes in S Then

that belong to either A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {4, 5, 6}

The entire shaded area represents A U B

A or B 11 13

Examples (continued)

Important Terms (continued) S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} A = {2, 4, 6} B = {4, 5, 6}

Events if they have no basic

outcomes in common Intersections: A B {4, 6} A B {5}

A B

i.e., the set A Ç B is empty

Unions: A B {2, 4, 5, 6}

Events E1, E2, … Ek are Collectively Exhaustive

A A {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} S

events if E1 U E2 U . . . U Ek = S

i.e., the events completely cover the sample space Mutually exclusive:

A and B are not mutually exclusive

The Complement of an event A is The outcomes 4 and 6 are common to both

S

sample space that do not belong to A

A and B are not collectively exhaustive

A. The complement is denoted A A U B does not contain 1 or 3

12 14

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-4

Probability – the chance that an The Complement rule: P(A) 1 P(A) i.e., P(A) P(A) 1

uncertain event will occur (always

between 0 and 1) 1 Certain

The Addition rule:

Probability Postulates

The probability of the union of two events is

1. If A is any event in the sample space S, then P(A or B) P(A B) P(A) P(B) P(A B)

0 P(A) 1

.5

2. Let A be an event in S, and let Oi denote the

The Multiplication rule (When events are independent):

basic outcomes. Then P(A) P(O ) i

A The probability of the intersection of two events is

(the notation means that the summation is over all

the basic outcomes in A) P(A and B) P(A B) P(A) * P(B)

3. Probability of sample space is 1 P(S) 1 0 Impossible

15 17

Assessing Probability

Three approaches to assess probability of an uncertain

event

A Probability Table

1. classical probability

NA number of outcomes that satisfy the event Probabilities and joint probabilities for two events A

probabilit y of event A

N total number of outcomes in the sample space and B are summarized in this table:

Assumes all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur

2. relative frequency probability B B

nA number of events in the population that satisfy event A

probabilit y of event A A P(A B) P(A B ) P(A)

n total number of events in the population

A P(A B) P(A B ) P(A)

number of trials, n

3. subjective probability P(B) P( B ) P(S) 1.0

an individual opinion or belief about the probability of occurrence

16 18

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-5

Consider a standard deck of 52 cards, with four suits:

§¨ª Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

Let event A = card is an Ace. Let event B = card is from a red suit conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player

P(Red U Ace) = P(Red) + P(Ace) - P(Red Ç Ace) (CD). 20% of the cars have both.

Don’t count What is the probability that a car has a CD

the two red player, given that it has AC ?

Color aces twice!

Type Red Black Total

i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC)

Ace 2 2 4

Non-Ace 24 24 48

Total 26 26 52 19

21

(continued)

Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning

A conditional probability is the probability of one (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).

event, given that another event has occurred: 20% of the cars have both.

CD No CD Total

P(A | B) probability of A given AC .2 .5 .7

P(B) that B has occurred

No AC .2 .1 .3

P(A B) The conditional

Total .4 .6 1.0

P(B | A) probability of B given

P(A) that A has occurred

P(CD AC) .2

P(CD | AC) .2857

P(AC) .7

20 22

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-6

(continued)

Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of these,

20% have a CD player. 20% of 70% is 28.57%.

Two events are statistically independent

if and only if:

CD No CD Total

AC .2 .5 .7

P(A B) P(A) P(B)

No AC .2 .1 .3 Events A and B are independent when the probability of one

event is not affected by the other event

Total .4 .6 1.0

If A and B are independent, then

P(CD AC) .2 P(A | B) P(A)

P(CD | AC) .2857 if P(B)>0

P(AC) .7

P(B | A) P(B) if P(A)>0

23 25

Multiplication Rule & Its Example Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning

Multiplication rule for two events A and B: (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD). 20% of the cars

P(A B) P(A | B) P(B) have both.

Are the events AC and CD statistically independent?

also P(A B) P(B | A) P(A)

CD No CD Total

P(Red Ç Ace) = P(Red| Ace)P(Ace)

2 4 2 AC .2 .5 .7

4 52 52 No AC .2 .1 .3

number of cards that are red and ace 2

total number of cards 52 Total .4 .6 1.0

Color P(AC Ç CD) = 0.2

Type Red Black Total

P(AC) = 0.7

P(AC)P(CD) = (0.7)(0.4) = 0.28

Ace 2 2 4 P(CD) = 0.4

Total 26 26 52 So the two events are not statistically independent 26

24

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-7

Introduction to

Marginal Probability Example Probability Distributions

2 2 4 Represents a possible numerical value from

P(Ace Red) P(Ace Black)

52 52 52 a random experiment

Random

Color Variables

Type Red Black Total

Discrete Continuous

Ace 2 2 4

Random Variable Random Variable

Non-Ace 24 24 48

Total 26 26 52

27 31

(Not included for the Final Exam) Discrete Random Variables

.2

.7

Can only take on a countable number of values

Given AC or P(AC Ç CD) = .2

no AC: Examples:

P(AC Ç CD) = .5

.5 Roll a die twice

.7 Let X be the number of times 4 comes up

All (then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)

Cars

.2

.3 P(AC Ç CD) = .2 Toss a coin 5 times.

Let X be the number of heads

(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)

.1 P(AC Ç CD) = .1

.3 28

32

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-8

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads. Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete

Show P(x) , i.e., P(X = x) , for all values of x: distribution (Weighted Average)

4 possible outcomes

Probability Distribution E(x) xP(x)

T T x Value Probability x

0 1/4 = .25

T H 1 2/4 = .50

Example: Toss 2 coins,

x P(x)

0 .25

2 1/4 = .25

x = # of heads, 1 .50

H T Probability

compute expected value of x: 2 .25

.50

E(x) = (0 x .25) + (1 x .50) + (2 x .25)

H H .25

= 1.0

0 1 2 x 33 35

Required Properties

Variance of a discrete random variable X

s 2 E(X ) 2 (x ) 2 P(x)

P(x) 0 for any value of x x

2

s E(X ) - E(X) x 2 P(x) xP(x)

2 2 2

x x

The individual probabilities sum to 1; Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable X

P(x) 1

x

2

(x ) 2 P(x)

x

Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads,

compute standard deviation (recall E(x) = 1)

(0 1)2 (.25) (1 1)2 (.50) (2 1)2 (.25) .50 .707

34 = 0, 1, or 2 36

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-9

Distributions defective or acceptable

Discrete Continuous A firm bidding for contracts will either get a contract

Probability Probability or not

Distributions Distributions

A marketing research firm receives survey

responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not”

Binomial Uniform

New job applicants either accept the offer or reject

Hypergeometric Gaussian or Normal it

Poisson Exponential

37 39

Binomial Probability Distribution Binomial Distribution Formula

A fixed number of observations, n

e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; ten light bulbs taken from a warehouse n! X X

P(x) P (1- P)n

Two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive x ! (n x )!

categories

e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not defective

light bulb P(x) = probability of x successes in n trials,

Generally called “success” and “failure” with probability of success P on each trial

Example: Flip a coin four

Probability of success is P , probability of failure is 1 – P times, let x = # heads:

x = number of ‘successes’ in sample,

Constant probability for each observation n=4

(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)

e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each time we toss P = 0.5

n = sample size (number of trials

the coin or observations) 1 - P = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5

Observations are independent P = probability of “success” x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4

The outcome of one observation does not affect the outcome of 1- P = probability of “failure”

the other

38 40

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-10

Calculating a Binomial Probability Mean E(x) nP

Variance

2

nP(1- P)

What is the probability of one success in five nP(1- P)

observations if the probability of success is 0.1?

Standard Deviation

Examples

x = 1, n = 5, and P = 0.1 nP (5)(0.1) 0.5

Mean P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1

.6

.4

nP(1- P) (5)(0.1)(1 0.1) .2

n! 0.6708 0 x

P(x 1) P X (1 P)n X

x!(n x)! 0 1 2 3 4 5

5!

(0.1)1(1 0.1)51 nP (5)(0.5) 2.5

1! (5 1)! P(x) n = 5 P = 0.5

.6

(5)(0.1)(0.9) 4

nP(1- P) (5)(0.5)(1 0.5)

.4

.2

.32805 1.118 0 x

0 1 2 3 4 5

41 43

Binomial Distribution (Not included for the Final Exam)

The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the Select PHStat / Probability & Prob. Distributions / Binomial…

values of P and n

Mean P(x) n = 5 P = 0.1

.6

Here, n = 5 and P = 0.1 .4

.2

0 x

0 1 2 3 4 5

P(x) n = 5 P = 0.5

Here, n = 5 and P = 0.5 .6

.4

.2

0 x

0 1 2 3 4 5

42 44

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-11

(Not included for the Final Exam) The Poisson Distribution

(continued)

Enter desired values in dialog box Apply the Poisson Distribution when:

Here: n = 10 You wish to count the number of times an event occurs

in a given continuous interval

p = .35

The probability that an event occurs in one subinterval is

Output for x = 0 very small and is the same for all subintervals

to x = 10 will be The number of events that occur in one subinterval is

generated by PHStat independent of the number of events that occur in the

other subintervals

Optional check boxes There can be no more than one occurrence in each

subinterval

for additional output

The average number of events per unit is (lambda)

45 47

(Not included for the Final Exam) (Not included for the Final Exam)

e x where:

P(x) x = number of successes per unit

x! = expected number of successes per unit

e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)

P(x = 3 | n = 10, P = .35) = .2522

Mean

E(x)

Variance and Standard Deviation

2

E[( X ) 2 ]

46

where = expected number of successes per unit 48

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-12

(Not included for the Final Exam) (Not included for the Final Exam)

0.70 Investment X: x = 50 x = 43.30

Graphically: Investment Y:

0.60 y = 95 y = 193.21

= .50 0.50 xy = 8250

= 0.40

Suppose 40% of the portfolio (P) is in Investment X and

0 0.6065 60% is in Investment Y:

0.20

1 0.3033 E(P) .4 (50 ) (.6) (95 ) 77

2 0.0758 0.10

3 0.0126

(.4) 2 (43.30) 2 (.6)2 (193.21) 2 2(.4)(.6)( 8250)

0.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 P

4 0.0016

x

5 0.0002 133 .04

6 0.0000

P(X = 2) = .0758

7 0.0000 The portfolio return and portfolio variability are between the values

for investments X and Y considered individually

49 62

(Not included for the Final Exam) (Not included for the Final Exam)

The shape of the Poisson Distribution The aggressive fund has a higher expected

depends on the parameter : return, but much more risk

0.70 0.25

y x

but

0.60

0.20

0.50

0.40

0.15

P(x)

P(x)

0.30 0.10

0.20

0.05

0.10

0.00 0.00

The Covariance of 8250 indicates that the two

0 1 2 3

x

4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6

x

7 8 9 10 11 12

investments are positively related and will vary

in the same direction

50 63

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-13

Density Function

Continuous Probability Distributions (Not included in the final exam)

The formula for the normal probability density function is

distributions

2

1 (X )

1

f(X) e 2

2p

Bell Shaped Constant Exponential Where e = the mathematical constant a roximated by 2.71828

Probability Probability Probability p = the mathematical constant a roximated by 3.14159

= the o ulation mean

Distribution Distribution Distribution = the o ulation standard deviation

X = any value of the continuous variable

66

64

Bell Shaped

Symmetrical

Mean, Median & Mode are Equal f(X)

Occurs often in business

Most commonly, it occurs because

of random errors

Location is determined by the X

mean,

Spread is determined by the

standard deviation, Mean

The random variable has an infinite By varying the parameters and , we obtain

theoretical range:

= Median

different normal distributions

+ to = Mode

65 67

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-14

Normal Distribution (Not included for the final exam)

Any normal distribution (with any mean and

standard deviation combination) can be Also known as the “Z” distribution

transformed into the standardized normal Mean is 0

distribution (Z)

Standard Deviation is 1

Need to transform X units into Z units

f(Z)

The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a

mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

1

Translate from X to the standardized normal (the

“Z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of X and Z

0

dividing by its standard deviation: X Values above the mean have positive Z-values,

The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and standard

Z values below the mean have negative Z-values

deviation = 1 70

68

Probability Density Function Example

(Not included for the final exam)

The formula for the standardized normal If X is distributed normally with mean of 100

probability density function is and standard deviation of 50, the Z value for

X = 200 is

1 (1/2)Z 2

f(Z) e X 200 100

2 Z 2.0

50

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

= the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159 This says that X = 200 is two standard

Z = any value of the standardized normal distribution deviations (2 increments of 50 units) above

the mean of 100.

69

71

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-15

(Not included for the final exam)

(Not included for the final exam)

under the curve

f(X) P (a £ X £ b)

100 200 X ( = 100, = 50) = P (a < X < b)

0 2.0 Z ( = 0, = 1) (Note that the

probability of any

Note that the shape of the distribution is the same, individual value is zero)

only the scale has changed. We can express the

problem in original units (X) or in standardized a b X

units (Z)

72 74

(Not included for the final exam) (Not included for the final exam)

The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is

For a discrete random variable, we can talk symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below

about the possibility of a single occurrence, f(X) P( X ) 0.5

two occurrences, etc. P( X ) 0.5

variable, we can only talk about the 0.5 0.5

probability of a range of values.

X

P( X ) 1.0

73

75

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4 4-16

Finding Normal Probabilities The Empirical Rule

(continued)

distributed normally:

± 3 covers about 99.7% of X’s

Draw the normal curve for the problem in

terms of X

2 2 3 3

Translate X-values to Z-values

x x

76 78

Empirical Rules

around the mean? For any normal distribution:

f(X)

± 1 encloses about

68.26% of X’s

-1 +1 X

68.26%

77

Statistics for Business and Economics, 6/e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc.

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